News and notes:
- Don’t overestimate the impact of the Lions’ three-game losing streak. Two of those games came against teams considered the class of the NFC, and the third was on the road against a Cardinals team that’s one of those “win against good teams, lose against bad ones” types this year. Arizona is 3-1 against teams above .500 but 2-5 against teams below .500. That’s why they’re favored at home against a good Browns team.
- That said, although I’m picking the Lions over the Vikings, I do so with some trepidation. The Vikings are going to be impossible to pick against without a lot of thought the rest of the way. But I still believe in the 10-Win Guarantee.
- Psst… the Chargers’ only bad losses are against the Chiefs and Vikings, and the Chiefs were good early and the Vikings are good now. But in my Upset Special, if the Chiefs beat the Chargers on the road, they can do so at home.
- Two of my patterns went by the wayside, but I’m still picking the Rams for the duration because that was a game they should have won. The Bears are coming off a win and their next game is against… the Giants. Right. I’m now picking the Saints to finish a two-game winning streak and then lose, win, and I don’t know what after that.
- Want another Upset Special? How about the Raiders, who came within a timeout of beating the Broncos at Mile High, at home? Or Houston beating Tennessee? You don’t think the Texans will remind people of how they looked early with Andre Johnson against the ailing, Haynesworth-less Titans defense?