2011 College Football Rankings – Week 12

After a weekend of upsets, it’s official: we’re going to have a one-loss team in the national championship game, and after a few years of relative lack of controversy the BCS mess is back with a vengeance. An LSU-Alabama rematch may be the least bad option at this point; no one, not even the people who put them there, thinks Arkansas is really the third-best team in the country (though they might prove it with an upset win over LSU), and Oklahoma State, Virginia Tech, and Stanford are a rather uninspiring crop of one-loss teams. (By the way, who says the Golden Boot is a fake, manufactured rivalry?) If the two best teams happen to come from the same division of the same conference, is that really all that bad? (Okay, so their first meeting was unwatchable, but still!)

A note on the lineal titles: I’ve split the ’09 Boise State title, giving Oregon a continuing claim to the title because of the sanctions against USC.

How the C Ratings are tabulated: First, A Ratings are tabulated by multiplying the total score ratio, which is expressed by (points-opponents’ points)/points, by the winning percentage. Score ratio minimizes the effect of running up the score. Next, B Points for each game are tabulated by (margin of victory)/(opponent’s A rating)+/-1 for wins, and -(margin of loss)/(1-opponent’s A Rating)+/-1 for losses. The “+/-” is + for road games and – for home ones. The total number of B Points is multiplied by the A Rating to get the B Rating. Finally, the C Rating is tabulated by taking one-tenth the difference between the team’s B Rating and the average of his opponents’ B Ratings and taking the result off the B Rating. The three ratings go A, B, C across. Click here to see the complete ratings.

1 LSU SEC #1 ’06 Boise St.
11-0 LW: #3 A Rat: .834 B Rating: 53.397 C Rating: 46.352 AP: 1 BCS: 1
LSU avoided the epidemic of upsets against Ole Miss, but will their luck run out against Arkansas?
2 Alabama SEC #2 BCS Title
10-1 LW: #4 A Rat: .775 B Rating: 49.410 C Rating: 42.817 AP: 2 BCS: 2
Bama might as well have taken a week off against I-AA Georgia Southern, but now they’re in the catbird seat. But Auburn wants to recover something of their season.
3 Oklahoma State B12 #1 BCS Title
10-1 LW: #1 A Rat: .643 B Rating: 45.045 C Rating: 37.747 AP: 5 BCS: 4
The Cowboys will have a week to stew over the Iowa State loss – but Baylor loss aside, Oklahoma will be a far tougher test.
4 Boise State MWC #1 MWC Title
9-1 LW: #6 A Rat: .675 B Rating: 39.471 C Rating: 33.203 AP: 7 BCS: 7
Boise is looking like they picked a good time to lose, even if they need help from UNLV in two weeks to parlay it into a possible BCS bowl with a loss.
5 Oklahoma B12 #2 Big 12 Title
8-2 LW: #2 A Rat: .580 B Rating: 39.619 C Rating: 33.143 AP: 12 BCS: 9
Disappointing loss, and before facing Oklahoma State they have to take on the team that beat the Cowboys.
6 Oregon P12 #1 Bowl Position
9-2 LW: #5 A Rat: .590 B Rating: 30.983 C Rating: 25.742 AP: 9 BCS: 10
In one fell swoop, Oregon went from a potential national title contender to being a long shot for any BCS bowl. Nothing left to do but take care of their rivals.
7 Houston USA #1 BCS Bowl
11-0 LW: #9 A Rat: .781 B Rating: 33.570 C Rating: 24.027/strong> AP: 8 BCS: 8
Houston is looking like a mortal lock to become the 5th non-BCS team to play in a BCS game – but if they lose to Tulsa they won’t even be playing in the conference title game.
8 Wisconsin B10 #1 Big 10 Title
9-2 LW: #7 A Rat: .647 B Rating: 30.112 C Rating: 22.994 AP: 15 BCS: 16
A rather pedestrian win over Illinois leaves the Badgers open to a slip. Now they play Penn State with the winner headed to Indianapolis.
9 Michigan B10 #2 Bowl Position
9-2 LW: #10 A Rat: .589 B Rating: 23.256 C Rating: 19.192 AP: 17 BCS: 15
The Wolverines just embarassed Nebraska, and while they’re officially not going to the conference title game, they care a whole lot more about the golden opportunity to turn the tables on the Buckeyes.
10 Stanford P12 #2 BCS Title
10-1 LW: #8 A Rat: .681 B Rating: 22.342 C Rating: 16.184 AP: 4 BCS: 6
While no one seriously thinks the Cardinal are worse than V-Tech, you gotta do better than a field-goal victory over a team that struggled to get bowl-eligible, even if they are your rival. No matter, though: the title game awaits.
11 Arkansas SEC #3 SEC Title
9-1 LW: #17 A Rat: .631 B Rating: 17.674 C Rating: 12.505 AP: 3 BCS: 3
While #3 is ridiculous, the Razorbacks are at least trying to live up to it with blowout wins over the likes of Mississippi State. If they can beat LSU, they’d be pretty close to deserving a national title trip.
12 TCU MWC #2 MWC Title
9-2 LW: #16 A Rat: .579 B Rating: 14.502 C Rating: 9.335 AP: 19 BCS: 20
How incredible is it that people have started to whisper about TCU going to a BCS bowl, as a non-BCS conference team, with not one, but two losses?
13 Virginia Tech ACC #1 Prncton/Yale
10-1 LW: #13 A Rat: .604 B Rating: 11.887 C Rating: 8.469 AP: 6 BCS: 5
National title contenders don’t beat 6-5 North Carolina by three points at home, but the ACC has provided enough lack of parity that people are noticing V-Tech’s strong season – and this weekend’s big Commonwealth Cup.
14 Notre Dame   Bowl Position
8-3 LW: #12 A Rat: .462 B Rating: 11.082 C Rating: 7.845 AP: 22 BCS: 22
Pedestrian win over a pedestrian Boston College team, and now Stanford will represent the ultimate challenge for the Golden Domers.
15 Georgia SEC #4 SEC Title
9-2 LW: #14 A Rat: .573 B Rating: 11.539 C Rating: 7.785 AP: 13 BCS: 13
Georgia fans want you to be asking: What if we pulled the upset in the SEC title game? It’s not entirely outside the realm of possibility.
16 Southern Miss USA #2 C-USA Title
9-2 LW: #11 A Rat: .548 B Rating: 11.509 C Rating: 6.287
The Eagles will still make the conference title game with a win over Memphis or a Marshall loss, but can you imagine how huge it would’ve been if it was a ranked unbeaten against a ranked one-loss team?
17 USC P12 #3 ’09 Boise St.
9-2 LW: #20 A Rat: .525 B Rating: 8.106 C Rating: 4.680 AP: 10 SBNBlog: 13
Not only USC, but the Pac-12 is cursing themselves for the Trojans being bowl-ineligible. If USC beats UCLA and Utah and Arizona State lose as well, UCLA will go to the conference title game despite probably not bowling if they lose.
18 South Carolina SEC #5 Bowl Position
9-2 LW: #19 A Rat: .540 B Rating: 7.159 C Rating: 4.548 AP: 14 BCS: 12
When’s the last time the Palmetto State rivalry was this important? It would’ve been even more important had Clemson not just lost.
19 Penn State B10 #3 Big 10 Title
9-2 LW: #23 A Rat: .536 B Rating: 6.736 C Rating: 4.473 AP: 20 BCS: 19
Penn State bounces back and gets their first win without Joe Paterno. But the clash with Wisconsin is humongous.
20 Texas A&M B12 #3 Bowl Position
6-5 LW: #21 A Rat: .346 B Rating: 6.506 C Rating: 3.470
A&M just took another heartbreaking loss to a good team to close out their run in the Big 12 – and possibly, the Lone Star Showdown for good.
21 Toledo MAC #1 MAC Title
7-4 LW: #24 A Rat: .389 B Rating: 5.883 C Rating: 3.027
The Rockets just became the biggest Eastern Michigan fans in the country.
22 Rutgers BST #1 Big East Title
8-3 LW: #26 A Rat: .464 B Rating: 4.482 C Rating: 2.443
Hey, the alleged BCS conference Big East actually mustered a Top 25 team again! Now if South Florida can beat Louisville, we’ll get a Big East BCS representative that isn’t barely bowl-eligible and is actually pretty good!
23 Florida State ACC #2 Bowl Position
7-4 LW: #22 A Rat: .441 B Rating: 4.723 C Rating: 1.716
One-point loss against a team that could make the conference title game means only a one-spot drop. Now without Meyer or Tebow, the Seminoles have a chance to best rival Florida for once.
24 Nebraska B10 #4 Bowl Position
8-3 LW: #18 A Rat: .448 B Rating: 3.091 C Rating: 1.261 AP: 22 BCS: 21
Tim-ber! Catastrophic loss to Michigan sends the Huskers tumbling. Only bowl position matters now, and a potential new rivalry with Iowa could be pivotal in determining that.
25 Clemson ACC #2 ACC Title
9-2 LW: #15 A Rat: .496 B Rating: 2.525 C Rating: -.311 AP: 18 BCS: 17
Of course, Nebraska’s loss is nothing compared to Clemson getting blown out by an NC State team needing the win to become bowl-eligible. Might the Cocks see blood in the water?

2010 TCU Title: #46 Baylor (7-3), .387, -9.526, -10.106

Off Top 25: #27 Missouri (was #25)

Watch List: #26 Miami (FL)

Other Positive B Ratings: #28 Arizona State, #29 Utah State*, #30 Tulsa, #32 Iowa*, #33 Michigan State, #35 Ohio, #36 Georgia Tech*, #38 Northern Illinois, #39 Arkansas State* (*=Newly Positive)

No Longer Positive: #27 Missouri

Bottom 10: #111 Indiana, #112 UNLV, #113 UAB, #114 Colorado, #115 Kansas, #116 Florida Atlantic, #117 Memphis, #118 Tulane, #119 Akron, #120 New Mexico

Best game of week: Arkansas @ LSU, 11:30am PT, CBS

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