2011 College Football Rankings – Week 9

Median Expected Score
LSU 18½
Alabama 23

LSU v. Alabama. No. 1 v. No. 2. Two of the best three defenses in the country. A showdown to determine one of the participants in this year’s BCS Title Game.

Oklahoma will have something to say about the eventual outcome.

The Sooners may appear to be a long shot to make it that far; they’ll need a lot of upsets of teams currently undefeated. They can take out Oklahoma State themselves, but they’ll need someone else to take out Stanford, and maybe Boise State and the LSU-Bama loser too. Someone needs to explain to me how the Sooners could be favored on the road against a higher-ranked team (that’s all you need to know about how big a joke the polls are), but while Kansas State was wildly overrated, they were still undefeated, and the way the Sooners crushed them sends them shooting ahead of even LSU in the C Ratings.

Also, bad news for Big East fans: Rutgers has fallen off the Top 25, so your alleged BCS conference now has zero representatives. Better hope those invites work out…

How the C Ratings are tabulated: First, A Ratings are tabulated by multiplying the total score ratio, which is expressed by (points-opponents’ points)/points, by the winning percentage. Score ratio minimizes the effect of running up the score. Next, B Points for each game are tabulated by (margin of victory)/(opponent’s A rating)+/-1 for wins, and -(margin of loss)/(1-opponent’s A Rating)+/-1 for losses. The “+/-” is + for road games and – for home ones. The total number of B Points is multiplied by the A Rating to get the B Rating. Finally, the C Rating is tabulated by taking one-tenth the difference between the team’s B Rating and the average of his opponents’ B Ratings and taking the result off the B Rating. The three ratings go A, B, C across. Click here to see the complete ratings.

1 Alabama SEC #1 BCS Title
8-0 LW: #1 A Rat: .907 B Rating: 49.180 C Rating: 42.477 AP: 2 BCS: 2
The Tide and their top-ranked defense is rested and ready for the big showdown in Tuscaloosa.
2 Oklahoma B12 #1 2010 TCU
7-1 LW: #5 A Rat: .671 B Rating: 47.537 C Rating: 40.844 AP: 7 BCS: 6
A tight loss to Texas Tech doesn’t outweigh three wins over Top 25 teams in the C Ratings.
3 LSU SEC #2 ’06 Boise St.
8-0 LW: #2 A Rat: .852 B Rating: 45.883 C Rating: 40.437 AP: 1 BCS: 1
Not as many wins over good teams hurt the Tigers’ resume, but don’t be too alarmed. Unless Oklahoma blows A&M out of the water, a win over Bama should put you back in the top two.
4 Boise State MWC #1 BCS Title
7-0 LW: #4 A Rat: .796 B Rating: 39.822 C Rating: 34.522 AP: 5 BCS: 5
Boise comes back from the bye for a tune-up against UNLV ahead of a showdown with TCU.
5 Stanford P12 #1 BCS Title
8-0 LW: #3 A Rat: .822 B Rating: 38.563 C Rating: 32.039 AP: 4 BCS: 4
Despite beating USC, Stanford slips even behind idle Boise. Gotta be concerned by a win by only eight, and losses by teams they’ve played. The Oregon schools come to town next.
6 Oklahoma State B12 #2 BCS Title
8-0 LW: #6 A Rat: .720 B Rating: 36.770 C Rating: 31.516 AP: 3 BCS: 3
Oklahoma State is now part of a group of teams well ahead of the pack. But freshly-lost Kansas State will not be easy to put away.
7 Oregon P12 #2 ’09 Boise St.
7-1 LW: #8 A Rat: .656 B Rating: 22.251 C Rating: 18.384 AP: 6 BCS: 8
Another win, another step up. But Washington isn’t Washington State, and Stanford will be far better than even that.
8 Wisconsin B10 #1 Big 10 Title
6-2 LW: #7 A Rat: .591 B Rating: 20.122 C Rating: 15.298 AP: 19 BCS: 20
Uh-oh, could Wisconsin’s season be starting to fall apart? But Ohio State has sneakily recovered from their slow start, and it’s another close loss. Hopefully Purdue will be just what the doctor ordered.
9 Houston USA #1 BCS Bowl
8-0 LW: #10 A Rat: .740 B Rating: 19.688 C Rating: 14.392 AP: 14 BCS: 13
The show Case Keenum put on against Rice caused the whole country to take notice. Could another one be coming against lowly UAB?
10 Michigan B10 #2 BCS Title
7-1 LW: #12 A Rat: .657 B Rating: 16.883 C Rating: 13.621 AP: 13 BCS: 15
Big blowout over the Boilermakers. Now come two three-loss teams before a must-win against Nebraska.
11 Clemson ACC #1 ACC Title
8-1 LW: #9 A Rat: .587 B Rating: 14.170 C Rating: 11.269 AP: 11 BCS: 11
The Tigers got a rude awakening against G-Tech, and now they suddenly face a must-win against Wake Forest if they want to win the Atlantic.
12 Nebraska B10 #3 Big 10 Title
7-1 LW: #21 A Rat: .608 B Rating: 10.690 C Rating: 8.213 AP: 9 BCS: 10
Did you know Nebraska stomped a pretty decent Michigan State team this weekend? The polls did, and so did the C Ratings.
13 South Carolina SEC #3 SEC Title
7-1 LW: #14 A Rat: .606 B Rating: 10.847 C Rating: 8.805 AP: 10 BCS: 9
The SEC undercard bout isn’t – neither team is Top 10 material, especially Arkansas – but it is a tough challenge for the Gamecocks to keep pace with Georgia in the East.
14 Penn State B10 #4 Big 10 Title
8-1 LW: #13 A Rat: .607 B Rating: 8.990 C Rating: 6.976 AP: 16 BCS: 16
It wasn’t pretty, but the Lions got it done for JoePa, and they’re now clear by two in the Woody Hayes division. But their last three opponents won’t be easy, starting with Nebraska after the bye.
15 Virginia Tech ACC #2 ACC Title
8-1 LW: #15 A Rat: .602 B Rating: 9.395 C Rating: 6.940 AP: 12 BCS: 12
The Hokies shouldn’t celebrate Clemson’s misfortune too long. The team that beat them is next, and they want a trip to the conference title game.
16 Southern Miss USA #2 C-USA Title
7-1 LW: #16 A Rat: .622 B Rating: 10.288 C Rating: 6.621 Coaches: 24 BCS: 25
Now the BCS is taking note of the Golden Eagles. But unless they beat East Carolina, they may not even be going to the conference title game.
17 Texas A&M B12 #3 Big 12 Title
5-3 LW: #11 A Rat: .409 B Rating: 8.430 C Rating: 6.120
Heartbreaking loss to Missouri. What’s worse? Now comes a visit to Norman.
18 Toledo MAC #1 MAC Title
5-3 LW: #17 A Rat: .384 B Rating: 7.354 C Rating: 5.506
I wouldn’t guaranteee that the Rockets fall off the rankings next week after a three-point loss to the perennial “Other Positive B Points” team, especially the way everyone took notice of the MAC afterwards.
19 Notre Dame   Bowl Elgblty
5-3 LW: #20 A Rat: .391 B Rating: 6.193 C Rating: 4.668
Blowout win over Navy reminds us all why the Domers are on the Top 25, and now they’re a win against a tough Wake Forest team away from becoming bowl-eligible.
20 Arizona State P12 #3 Pac-12 Title
5-2 LW: #19 A Rat: .488 B Rating: 4.907 C Rating: 2.880 AP: 20 BCS: 19
Okay, so Colorado is so godawful the Sun Devils actually slip after beating them. But a win over UCLA will all but lock up a trip to the inaugural conference title game.
21 Arkansas SEC #4 SEC Title
6-1 LW: #25 A Rat: .571 B Rating: 5.663 C Rating: 2.314 AP: 8 BCS: 7
Other teams’ misfortune causes the Razorbacks to move up despite a tight win over a team struggling to become bowl eligible. Will Steve Spurrier’s team expose them, or will they prove the polls right?
22 Florida State ACC #3 ACC Title
5-3 LW: #28 A Rat: .443 B Rating: 3.958 C Rating: 2.274
You probably forgot about the Seminoles after they followed a loss to mighty Oklahoma with consecutive 35-30 losses to their rivals for the division crown, but they’ve bounced back and a 34-0 drubbing of NC State puts them back on the Top 25.
23 Georgia SEC #5 SEC Title
6-2 LW: #24 A Rat: .485 B Rating: 2.695 C Rating: 2.203 AP: 18 BCS: 18
It wasn’t pretty, but it was a win against their rivals. They shouldn’t have too much trouble with New Mexico State, which is good because they have two very good teams still to come.
24 USC P12 #4 Probation
6-2 LW: #22 A Rat: .462 B Rating: 3.458 C Rating: 2.170 AP: 21 SBNBlog: 22
USC fought valiantly against mighty Stanford and showed why they deserved all the love they got after the Notre Dame win. After crushing Colorado, they’ll get a challenge when Washington comes to the Coliseum.
25 TCU MWC #2 MWC Title
6-2 LW: #27 A Rat: .538 B Rating: 6.781 C Rating: 1.906
An important win over BYU gives the Horned Frogs just enough to move back into the Top 25, with just a trip to Wyoming ahead of the big showdown with Boise State.

26 teams total with positive C Rating (none with negative B Rating)

Princeton-Yale Title: #26 Georgia Tech (7-2), .482, 3.346, .752

Off Top 25: #27 Rutgers (was #23), #35 Kansas State (was #18)

Watch List: #26 Georgia Tech, #27 Rutgers, #28 Miami (FL)

#27 TCU, #28 Florida State, #29 Michigan State, #31 Syracuse*, Temple, Iowa, Kansas State, Ohio

Other Positive B Ratings: #31 West Virginia*, #37 Iowa, #40 Ohio (*=Newly Positive)

No Longer Positive: #32 Michigan State, #35 Kansas State, #41 Temple, #56 Syracuse

Bottom 10: #111 Indiana, #112 UNLV, #113 Kansas, #114 Akron, #115 Buffalo, #116 Florida Atlantic, #117 Tulane, #118 UAB, #119 Memphis, #120 New Mexico

Best game of week: LSU @ Alabama, 5pm PT, CBS

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