Month: November 2012

Predictions for the National Baseball Hall of Fame Class of 2013

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The National Baseball Hall of Fame’s selections are performed by members of the Baseball Writer’s Association of America who have been members for at least 10 years.

A six-person Screening Committee has selected a list of players that have been eligible for less than 15 years to be included on the ballot. A player must have played for 10 years and spent 5 years out of baseball before they can be considered for induction into the Hall of Fame. Players that last played in the 2007 season will be eligible for induction in 2013.

The BBWAA members will submit their ballots before December 31, and any player named on 75% of the ballots will be selected for induction into the National Baseball Hall of Fame. No more than ten players may be named on any ballot.

My prediction for the National Baseball Hall of Fame Class of 2013 is:

Mike Piazza, Dodgers

Sports TV War news and notes

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How much have we gotten used to having big events on cable over the past four years? When ESPN and the BCS announced, as expected, that the new college football playoff, including the championship game and non-“contract bowls”, would be going to ESPN, there was nary a peep about the fact that the new championship game would remain on cable for the life of the contract. No one, aside from Sports Media Watch, found it in any way noteworthy that college football will crown its champion on cable for a total of a decade and a half.

They should; ESPN’s Monday Night Football contract currently only ends in 2021 (though it’s likely to be extended to 2022), meaning by the time the contract for the new playoff ends, it could well be the only thing propping up ESPN’s hegemony, for a full four years. If cable has moved to an a la carte system by 2022, or if Internet streaming is making an undeniable impact on the viability of cable television, ESPN may find itself forced to move the championship game to ABC… or it could use its monopoly on the college football playoff to inflate its viewership numbers beyond what they actually should be and thus keep rights above the station those developments should by all rights place them.

Fox’s rumored victory in the race for Dodgers rights and announced acquisition of almost half of the YES network shores up the health of its regional sports network operation and technically puts Fox right back into competition with Comcast in a market. While it’ll now be a long time, if ever, before Fox is forced to leave the Los Angeles market or even shut down one of its two regional sports networks there, it doesn’t really change the calculus for the state of national FSN programming or the national FSN brand; I would bet MSG Plus was one of FSN’s more loyal non-in-house affiliates. (On the Yankees’ end, while it does hedge their risk for a potential collapse in the RSN market, it doesn’t leave them as well prepared if a streaming-heavy future replaces it.)

However, it’s clear that Fox is serious about launching an ESPN competitor, even placing it in the same tradition as the launch of the Fox network itself or the launch of Fox News as a competitor to CNN. I don’t see the point of their proposal of running ads in split-screen even when nothing is happening during the break; while it should work for NASCAR and could work for soccer and even UFC, it seems supremely pointless for other sports, and I could see advertisers balk at applying it across the board.

Sport-Specific Networks
11.5 14.5 7 6.5 1 1.5

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 12

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NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it still says late games start at 4:15 ET instead of 4:25):

  • Begins Sunday of Week 11
  • In effect during Weeks 11-17
  • Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
  • The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
  • The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
  • The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
  • The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
  • Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
  • NFL schedules all games.
  • Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
  • Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 last year as well as the first year of flexible scheduling, because NBC hosted Christmas night games those years and all the other games were moved to Saturday (and so couldn’t be flexed), but are otherwise protected after Week 5.
  • In the past, three teams could appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. I don’t know how the expansion of the Thursday Night schedule affects this, if it does. No team starts the season completely tapped out at any measure; eight teams have five primetime appearances each, but only the Broncos and Bears don’t have at least one game that can be flexed out. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 18):

  • Selected game: Baltimore @ Pittsburgh.

Week 12 (November 25):

  • Selected game: Green Bay @ NY Giants.

Week 13 (December 2):

  • Selected game: Philadelphia @ Dallas.

Week 14 (December 9):

  • Selected game: Detroit @ Green Bay.

Week 15 (December 16):

  • Selected game: San Francisco @ New England. If you thought last year’s early flexing-out of Colts-Patriots was weird, how about an early keeping of a game? Especially a game that isn’t even the best unprotected game of the week, with Broncos-Ravens almost certainly unprotected? But it’s hard to see any game overcoming the tentative game bias against an 8-3 v. 8-2-1 battle of division leaders; even if Broncos-Ravens had gone to 10-2 v. 9-3, and 49ers-Patriots had gone to 8-4 v. 8-3-1, it wouldn’t be terribly surprising that the NFL would stick with the tentative, as both games would still be matchups of division leaders. The real surprise is that Broncos-Ravens hasn’t been moved to the anchor spot of CBS’ doubleheader, especially given the Peyton Manning factor; it’s kind of hard to sell Steelers-Cowboys at this point by comparison, despite it being one of only two trips to Cowboys Stadium the Tiffany Network will be able to take all year, and being two teams with larger, more committed fanbases.

Week 16 (December 23):

  • Tentative game: San Diego @ NY Jets
  • Prospects: 4-7 v. 4-7. After the debacle Thanksgiving night, do you really think NBC wants to go back to the Jets’ circus again? Only God (through His prophet Tebow) can save this game now.
  • Likely protections: Giants-Ravens (FOX) and Bengals-Steelers if anything (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Should prevent this from being a whole no-flex season, but with the Vikings’ slide 49ers-Seahawks might be a better option than Vikings-Texans, which is now looking very lopsided. Bengals-Steelers is also an option if it’s unprotected, and keep an eye on Saints-Cowboys.

Week 17 (December 30):

AFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION
LEADERS		 WILD CARD WAITING IN
THE WINGS (4-7)
WEST
48-3		 57-4
4-7
EAST
38-3		 66-5
5-6
NORTH
29-2		 6-5
2 tied at 6-5 5-6
SOUTH
110-1
7-4
NFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION
LEADERS		 WILD CARD WAITING IN
THE WINGS
EAST
47-4		 57-4 5-6
2 tied at 5-6 5-6
NORTH
38-3		 66-5 5-6
7-4 4-6-1
WEST
28-2-1		 6-5 4-7
6-5 6-5 4-7
SOUTH
110-1
6-5
  • Tentative game: None (NBC will show game with guaranteed playoff implications).
  • Possible games: Jets-Bills, Ravens-Bengals, Bears-Lions, Packers-Vikings, Bucs-Falcons, Texans-Colts, Dolphins-Patriots, Cowboys-Redskins, Cardinals-49ers, Seahawks-Rams.

Last-Minute Remarks on SNF Week 14 Picks

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Week 14 (December 9):

  • Tentative game: Detroit @ Green Bay
  • Prospects: 4-7 v. 8-3. The Lions briefly looked to have escaped their mediocre start, but right now this game looks awfully lopsided.
  • Likely protections: Bears-Vikings or Cardinals-Seahawks if anything, more likely the former (FOX) and Chargers-Steelers (CBS).
  • Other possible games mentioned on last week’s Watch and their records: Saints (5-6)-Giants (7-4), Cowboys (5-6)-Bengals (6-5).
  • Impact of Monday Night Football: Don’t make me laugh.
  • Analysis: I wrote “the .500 teams absolutely have to win unless Bears-Vikings turns out to be unprotected”, and both lost. Saints-Giants looks like an interesting matchup, especially as the Saints have rallied after their disastrous start, but I don’t know that it’s good enough to overcome the tentative game bias. On the one hand, the Saints have been playing better than their record; on the other hand, the Giants would be maxed out, although it’s really doubtful Giants-Eagles gets flexed in Week 17.
  • Final prediction: New Orleans Saints @ New York Giants, though I wouldn’t be surprised by no change.
  • Actual selection: Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers (no change). (Let it be said that Bears-Vikings would have been a shoo-in had it not been protected.)

I already warned you I was as sensitive as an atom bomb. I take no responsibility if my coverage of this storyline drives anyone away from Da Blog.

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(From Questionable Content. Click for full-sized brotherly love.)

I’ve been reading the Questionable Content strips following the recent revelation guardedly, not because I worry that Jeph won’t handle the topic well (there’s no reason to think he won’t), but because I worry that I won’t be able to handle his handling of it well, for reasons I’ll expand on if those fears prove founded.

It might be a good sign that this comic gives me a reason to post that relates to said revelation only tangentially, but in a way that intrigues me rather than pushing me away. Up to this point, Claire and Clinton have been weird natural foils for one another, almost perfect opposites and yet perfect mirrors at the same time. They’re both incredibly weird, hopeless dweebs and geeks, yet in such ways that perfectly complement each other that they’re clearly embarrassed by and, so it appeared, can’t stand each other. My hunch that they hated each other because of their similarities wound up being shot down in the very next comic, so it seemed that their antagonism was rooted in their polarized differences made even more polarized by their similarities, and that that idea of them as opposite-sex counterparts and foils was the essence of their characters and little else, especially the substantially newer Claire.

The recent revelation, however, suggested that that wasn’t the whole story. Robert A. “Tangents” Howard suggested that one reason for the antagonism between the two might have been the result of Clinton revealing Claire’s secret against her wishes, but subsequent strips, particularly this one, have shown that precisely the opposite is the case: that Clinton is incredibly protective of Claire’s secret, fearful of the exact scenario Howard speculated about, and that for all they may get on each other’s nerves, this shared goal strengthens their sibling bond beyond all of it and ensures that, underneath it all, they will always love each other as brother and sister.

(I really struggled not to put “sister” in quotes. You see some of the problem I have with this topic. If you really can’t wait to see whether or not this drives me away from the comic, you can read my comments to that Tangents piece.)

Howard wonders if the similar bond Claire has created between herself and Marten might lead to them eventually dating, but unlike a number of QC fans I have never seen any of the new interns as potential romantic material for Marten or virtually any other existing character; considering Tai is their boss, any age issues I saw between Dora and Tai would go double for them. This is especially the case for Claire, given both the nature of her secret and that the bond she’s created with Marten seems to be a little more parental in nature. If anything, I could see a rift grow between her and Marten if Marten blabs her secret to his own friends he feels he can trust to be open-minded about it, such as Faye, Dora, Hannelore, and Tai.

Then there’s the implication of this for Clinton’s character development. Up to this point, Clinton has been one of the least sympathetic characters in the entire comic, as pretty much all we knew about him was that he was a weird, creepy nerd with a robot hand that we knew only through his attempts to stalk Hannelore. Now, however, we have not only discovered his soft spot for his sister, but he must now unavoidably become a part of the QC “family”,  bound through their shared friendship and unique connection for Claire. While the relationship between Clinton and Marten was still antagonistic with only a reluctant thawing in Wednesday’s comic, I think it’s inevitable that, as it is with Claire and Clinton themselves, the shared protection of Claire’s secret will ultimately lead to Clinton and Marten slowly moving towards something closer to “friends”, and through that, Clinton’s assimilation to Marten’s larger circle.

If so, though, I really hope he doesn’t end up hooking up with Hannelore. We already had Angus send the message that you can start a relationship with an ice queen like Faye by getting in-your-face and antagonizing them. If it happens again with Clinton and Hannelore, it’s going to say some disturbing things about Jeph Jacques’ view of relationships and human nature.

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 11

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NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it still says late games start at 4:15 ET instead of 4:25):

  • Begins Sunday of Week 11
  • In effect during Weeks 11-17
  • Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
  • The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
  • The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
  • The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
  • The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
  • Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
  • NFL schedules all games.
  • Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
  • Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 last year as well as the first year of flexible scheduling, because NBC hosted Christmas night games those years and all the other games were moved to Saturday (and so couldn’t be flexed), but are otherwise protected after Week 5.
  • In the past, three teams could appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. I don’t know how the expansion of the Thursday Night schedule affects this, if it does. No team starts the season completely tapped out at any measure; eight teams have five primetime appearances each, but only the Broncos and Bears don’t have at least one game that can be flexed out. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 18):

  • Selected game: Baltimore @ Pittsburgh.

Week 12 (November 25):

  • Selected game: Green Bay @ NY Giants.

Week 13 (December 2):

  • Selected game: Philadelphia @ Dallas.

Week 14 (December 9):

  • Tentative game: Detroit @ Green Bay
  • Prospects: 4-6 v. 7-3. The Lions briefly looked to have escaped their mediocre start, but right now this game looks awfully lopsided.
  • Likely protections: Bears-Vikings or Cardinals-Seahawks if anything, more likely the former (FOX) and Chargers-Steelers (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Bears-Vikings is the only game involving two teams above .500 on Sunday. Saints-Giants and Cowboys-Bengals are options, but they might not sweep the NFL off its feet.
  • Analysis: If Bears-Vikings is protected, Lions-Packers might well keep its spot by default. The Vikings-Bears half of that rivalry is this week, so even if Bears-Vikings turns out to be unprotected, a Lions win means an 8-3 v. 6-5 game probably isn’t going to overcome the tentative game bias when Lions-Packers would either be only a game worse or a game more lopsided, and I’m not sure a 7-4 v. 7-4 game could overcome the tentative game bias either. So if the Lions win on Thanksgiving, they’re probably keeping their spot, but if they lose things could get a lot more interesting, but the .500 teams absolutely have to win unless Bears-Vikings turns out to be unprotected.

Week 15 (December 16):

  • Tentative game: San Francisco @ New England
  • Prospects: 7-2-1 v. 7-3, a battle of division leaders; hard to see this one losing its spot against any competition.
  • Likely protections: Broncos-Ravens (probably not), Colts-Texans, Steelers-Cowboys, or nothing (CBS) and Giants-Falcons (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Broncos-Ravens, Colts-Texans, Packers-Bears (or if it’s protected, Giants-Falcons), a tentative much worse than this would probably be doomed. Steelers-Cowboys and Bucs-Saints are dark horses.

Week 16 (December 23):

  • Tentative game: San Diego @ NY Jets
  • Prospects: 4-6 v. 4-6. This game can only keep its spot if Tim Tebow is the Jets’ starting quarterback by this point.
  • Likely protections: Giants-Ravens (FOX) and Bengals-Steelers if anything (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Looking like the only surefire flex, but with the Vikings’ slide 49ers-Seahawks might be a better option than Vikings-Texans, which is now looking very lopsided. Bengals-Steelers is a dark horse if it’s unprotected.

Week 17 (December 30):

AFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION
LEADERS		 WILD CARD WAITING IN
THE WINGS (4-6)
WEST
47-3		 56-4
4-6
EAST
37-3		 66-4
3 teams at 4-6
NORTH
28-2		 5-5
6-4
SOUTH
19-1
6-4
NFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION
LEADERS		 WILD CARD WAITING IN
THE WINGS (4-6)
EAST
46-4		 57-3
5-5
NORTH
37-3		 66-4
7-3
WEST
27-2-1		 6-4
6-4 6-4
SOUTH
19-1		 5-5
6-4 5-5
  • Tentative game: None (NBC will show game with guaranteed playoff implications).
  • Possible games: Jets-Bills, Ravens-Bengals, Bears-Lions, Packers-Vikings, Bucs-Falcons, Texans-Colts, Dolphins-Patriots, Cowboys-Redskins, Cardinals-49ers.

Last-Minute Remarks on SNF Week 13 Picks

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Week 13 (December 2):

  • Tentative game: Philadelphia @ Dallas
  • Prospects: Very iffy at 5-5 v. 3-7 (and the Giants starting to pull away with the division); would even the NFC East factor overcome such mediocre teams?
  • Likely protections: 49ers-Rams or Vikings-Packers (FOX) and Steelers-Ravens (CBS).
  • Other possible games mentioned on last week’s Watch and their records: Vikings (6-4)-Packers (7-3), Seahawks (6-4)-Bears (7-2), Bucs (6-4)-Broncos (7-3), Pats (7-3)-Dolphins (4-6), Colts (6-4)-Lions (4-6).
  • Impact of Monday Night Football: Under normal circumstances, the Bears would be playing to give Seahawks-Bears a leg up over Vikings-Packers and Bucs-Broncos, giving it a better pair of records at the expense of being a little lopsided, something it needs given it’s the least TV-friendly of the three. These aren’t normal circumstances.
  • Analysis: Two years ago, against all logic, the NFL kept a tentative with a 3-8 Cowboys team, prompting this rant about how the tentative game bias can be so extreme as to render flex scheduling nearly worthless. With a better Dallas team this year that’s only a game out of the wild card, I suggested that, even with an Eagle loss to make it semi-lopsided and mediocre at best at 5-5 v. 3-7, a Dallas win would pretty much guarantee this game keeps its spot; it would hardly be the worst tentative the NFL has kept. Dallas then had one more loss than Philly has now and the game is less lopsided, while the Cowboys are still in the thick of the playoff race. But the best alternative available then was Chiefs-Chargers at 7-4 v. 6-5, and the collection of 7-3 v. 6-4 games are mighty tempting. If this tentative were anything else, I would bet on Vikings-Packers or Bucs-Broncos. As it stands?
  • Final prediction: Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys (no change). (Does the lack of an announcement suggest that Seahawks-Bears has a shot with a Bears win?)

Come to think of it, has QC ever been explicitly for any form of “inclusion” that didn’t involve sex/gender politics or robots?

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(From Questionable Content. Click for full-sized interrupted escape.)

In the news post for this comic, Jeph Jacques indicates that this is “something [he’s] wanted to do for years and I really, really want to do a good job of it”, noting that the idea of “inclusion” is one that comes up a lot in QC and so including a character of this sort is important for completeness’ sake, and reassuring us that “I have given it a lot of thought and done a lot of research, so hopefully I won’t screw up.”

If so, this is not a very good start.

Let’s be honest, you could quite literally swap in any word in the second panel and have exactly the same comic, maybe a better one. It comes off as just a buzzword, as some random, arbitrary group, delivered matter-of-factly and out of nowhere, not as a term with an actual meaning. For someone who professes to be so for “inclusion”, it comes off as a decidedly fake form of inclusion, of slapping a label on a character so you can boast about how “inclusive” you are, like a committee-designed character on a kids’ TV show.

What makes this worse is that Jeph is doing this to an established character, albeit one that’s only been in the cast for a few months, leaving me wondering whether Jeph designed her this way from the start. I can understand the notion that members of some group can be “just like everyone else” whose membership in that group doesn’t have to be all-consuming, but in this particular case – as much as this might betray my own biases, prejudices, and stereotypes – it’s hard for me to imagine how it wouldn’t have come up a lot sooner. And while she hasn’t been around for very long, I’d be hard-pressed to find a worse character to do this to than Claire, part of whose character has become “the opposite-sex mirror to Clinton” (though none of the Smif students would work very well).

Add it all up, and this comic doesn’t seem to make any sense. It doesn’t make any sense in itself, where it drops something without seeming to have any context for its implications, and it doesn’t make sense in terms of the framework it asks us to accept. It begs for further elaboration, yet it seemingly plays out in a way that precludes said elaboration by being seemingly ignorant to the need for it. Were it not for the date, I might think it was an April Fool’s joke. If Jeph Jacques really wants to seriously take on this issue, he’s really put himself behind the eight-ball right out of the gate.

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 10

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Note: This week’s post does not include the results of the Thursday night game.

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it still says late games start at 4:15 ET instead of 4:25):

  • Begins Sunday of Week 11
  • In effect during Weeks 11-17
  • Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
  • The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
  • The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
  • The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
  • The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
  • Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
  • NFL schedules all games.
  • Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
  • Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 last year as well as the first year of flexible scheduling, because NBC hosted Christmas night games those years and all the other games were moved to Saturday (and so couldn’t be flexed), but are otherwise protected after Week 5.
  • In the past, three teams could appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. I don’t know how the expansion of the Thursday Night schedule affects this, if it does. No team starts the season completely tapped out at any measure; eight teams have five primetime appearances each, but only the Broncos and Bears don’t have at least one game that can be flexed out. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 18):

  • Selected game: Baltimore @ Pittsburgh.

Week 12 (November 25):

  • Selected game: Green Bay @ NY Giants.

Week 13 (December 2):

  • Tentative game: Philadelphia @ Dallas
  • Prospects: Very iffy at 4-5 v. 3-6 (and the Giants starting to pull away with the division); would even the NFC East factor overcome such mediocre teams?
  • Likely protections: 49ers-Rams or Vikings-Packers (FOX) and Steelers-Ravens (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Vikings-Packers and Seahawks-Bears would both be strong contenders, with Bucs-Broncos starting to sneak up. Pats-Dolphins and Colts-Lions have outside shots still, or at least did before the Dolphins lost.
  • Analysis: Two years ago, against all logic, the NFL kept a tentative with a 3-8 Cowboys team, prompting this rant about how the tentative game bias can be so extreme as to render flex scheduling nearly worthless. This is a better Dallas team and a win over the lowly Browns would get them to 5-5, only a game behind the current last wild card at 6-4. As such, even with an Eagle loss to make it semi-lopsided and mediocre at best at 5-5 v. 3-7, a Dallas win would pretty much guarantee this game keeps its spot; it would hardly be the worst tentative the NFL has kept. If the Cowboys lose, the best pair of records standing against a tentative where 4-6 is the best record would probably be Seahawks-Bears at 6-4 v. 8-2 or 7-3, with Vikings-Packers possibly matching it and Bucs-Broncos having an outside shot of doing the same. Yet it’s entirely possible that of that group, only Vikings-Packers has even an outside shot of challenging the tentative; the Seahawks and Bucs aren’t enough of name teams. Will the NFL bite the bullet and keep a game with both teams below .500 solely because of its name value? Everyone hopes they don’t have to find out.

Week 14 (December 9):

  • Tentative game: Detroit @ Green Bay
  • Prospects: 4-5 v. 6-3. The Lions have largely escaped their mediocre start, but they are hardly the draw they were when they were the beneficiary of the Manning-injury-ruined Colts-Pats game last year.
  • Likely protections: Bears-Vikings or Cardinals-Seahawks if anything, more likely the former (FOX) and Chargers-Steelers (CBS).
  • Other possible games: At this point, Lions-Packers may keep its spot by default if nothing else; right now Bears-Vikings is the only game involving two teams above .500 on Sunday. The Dolphins are fading, so Dolphins-49ers might be out, and the Cardinals are fading, so Cardinals-Seahawks might be out. On the other hand, Saints-Giants is becoming a dark horse, one Giants loss off from having the same pair of records as the tentative, but could it build a substantial enough lead before the time comes?

Week 15 (December 16):

  • Tentative game: San Francisco @ New England
  • Prospects: 6-2-1 v. 6-3, a battle of division leaders; hard to see this one losing its spot against any competition.
  • Likely protections: Broncos-Ravens (probably not), Colts-Texans, Steelers-Cowboys, or nothing (CBS) and Giants-Falcons (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Broncos-Ravens, Colts-Texans, Packers-Bears (or if it’s protected, Giants-Falcons), a tentative much worse than this would probably be doomed. Steelers-Cowboys is a dark horse, and Bucs-Saints is darker still.

Week 16 (December 23):

  • Tentative game: San Diego @ NY Jets
  • Prospects: 4-5 v. 3-6. This game can only keep its spot if Tim Tebow is the Jets’ starting quarterback by this point.
  • Likely protections: Giants-Ravens (FOX) and Bengals-Steelers if anything (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Looking like the only real flex candidate, specifically with Vikings-Texans, though 49ers-Seahawks is also an option and Bengals-Steelers and Bears-Cardinals are outside possibilities.

Week 17 (December 30):

AFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION
LEADERS		 WILD CARD WAITING IN
THE WINGS (4-5)
WEST
46-3		 56-3
4-5
EAST
36-3		 66-3
4-5
NORTH
27-2
6-3
SOUTH
18-1
6-3
NFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION
LEADERS		 WILD CARD WAITING IN
THE WINGS (4-5)
EAST
46-4		 56-3
4-5
WEST
36-2-1		 66-4
6-4
NORTH
27-2		 6-4
6-3 5-4
SOUTH
18-1
5-4
  • Tentative game: None (NBC will show game with guaranteed playoff implications).
  • Possible games: Ravens-Bengals, Bears-Lions, Packers-Vikings, Bucs-Falcons, Texans-Colts, Dolphins-Patriots, Cardinals-49ers.

Unsurprising sports TV war news

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Of course CBS Sports Network would pick up the Arena League. It’s just one more tiny league to fill time on CBSSN.

Actually, the Arena League might be a pretty big get for CBSSN, and quite possibly the biggest non-college programming on the network (unless you count odd US Open tennis coverage). It wasn’t that long ago, before the ESPN experiment and bankruptcy, that the Arena League was considered on the level of MLS and the WNBA. The earlier moves by the CFL and UFL to find networks proved that it wasn’t the NFL restricting them to “NFLN or bust”, making it all but inevitable the Arena League would fall short, especially after the final indignation earlier this year when NFLN, Olympics-restricted into carrying an NFL preseason game the night of the ArenaBowl in New Orleans, had it played at the relatively ungodly hour of 9 PM CT with a three-hour time slot. Especially with NBCSN picking up the CFL, it wasn’t out of the question for the Arena League to return to its previous stomping grounds of NBC, so for CBS to pick it up is a pretty big deal and one of those “baby steps” needed to escape being a laughingstock. It’s telling that the ArenaBowl will be aired on the CBS broadcast network on a Saturday afternoon.

I’m not even adding the Sugar Bowl shacking up with ESPN now that it’s taking the Champions Bowl matchup, since we kind of knew that already.

Sport-Specific Networks
10.5 14.5 7 6.5 1 1.5