NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.
The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.
Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it still says late games start at 4:15 ET instead of 4:25):
- Begins Sunday of Week 11
- In effect during Weeks 11-17
- Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
- The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
- The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
- No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
- The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
- Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
- The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
- Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
- NFL schedules all games.
- Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
- Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 last year as well as the first year of flexible scheduling, because NBC hosted Christmas night games those years and all the other games were moved to Saturday (and so couldn’t be flexed), but are otherwise protected after Week 5.
- In the past, three teams could appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. I don’t know how the expansion of the Thursday Night schedule affects this, if it does. No team starts the season completely tapped out at any measure; eight teams have five primetime appearances each, but only the Broncos and Bears don’t have at least one game that can be flexed out. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.
Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:
Week 11 (November 18):
- Selected game: Baltimore @ Pittsburgh.
Week 12 (November 25):
- Selected game: Green Bay @ NY Giants.
Week 13 (December 2):
- Selected game: Philadelphia @ Dallas.
Week 14 (December 9):
- Selected game: Detroit @ Green Bay.
Week 15 (December 16):
- Selected game: San Francisco @ New England.
Week 16 (December 23):
- Tentative game: San Diego @ NY Jets
- Prospects: 5-7 v. 4-8. What a horrible game, there’s no way it isn’t getting flexed… wait a second… did Rex Ryan just bench Mark Sanchez? Is that… is that the Tebow Express I hear coming into the station?!? But is it too late for even Touchdown Jesus to save the day, especially with Sanchez keeping his starting job for now?
- Likely protections: Giants-Ravens (FOX) and Bengals-Steelers (CBS).
- Other possible games: It helps Chargers-Jets’ case that a lot of the alternatives are questionable at best; Vikings-Texans keeps getting more and more lopsided, and Saints-Cowboys and Rams-Bucs are mediocre at best, with the Saints unable to get back to .500 in time. 49ers-Seahawks, on the other hand, currently sits at 8-3-1 v. 7-5 and may well end up deciding the NFC West, and certainly will have wild card implications.
- Analysis: So far ahead is 49ers-Seahawks, when Vikings-Texans is the only other unprotected game with a team above .500, that it’s really the only game worth considering, and a shoo-in under normal circumstances. If Sanchez is benched for Tebow, who leads them to a win to get to 6-7, the Seahawks lose, and the Bengals and Steelers lose as well to put the Jets only one game out of a playoff spot, and there are any rumblings of Tebow keeping the starting job on Monday, then I think there is at least a chance the Tebow factor takes over and keeps the spot for Chargers-Jets – remember, NBC’s chances to get Tebow last year were stymied at every turn. But everything has to break down perfectly, or the NFC West will take over Sunday night. (The 49ers would be maxed out on primetime appearances, but it’s extremely unlikely that Cardinals-49ers would be considered for a Week 17 flex; only way that happens is if the standings set up so that a San Fran loss puts them either behind the Seahawks or tied with the Rams, and even then the Niners might still get a wild card and the NFL would have to fear that 49ers-Cardinals would be their only Week 17 option for it to trump 49ers-Seahawks.)
Week 17 (December 30):
| DIVISION LEADERS |
WILD CARD | WAITING IN THE WINGS (5-7) |
| WEST 4  9-3 |
5 8-4 |
 |
| CLINCHED |  |
|
| NORTH 3  9-3 |
6 7-5 |
 |
| 2 teams at 7-5 | ||
| EAST 2  9-3 |
 7-5 |
|
| 3 teams at 5-7 | ||
| SOUTH 1  11-1 |
||
| 8-4 |
AFC Playoff Picture| DIVISION LEADERS |
WILD CARD | WAITING IN THE WINGS |
| EAST 4  7-5 |
5 8-4 |
 5-6-1 |
| 2 teams at 6-6 |  5-7 |
|
| NORTH 3  8-4 |
6 7-5 |
|
| 8-4 |
||
| WEST 2  8-2-1 |
 6-6 |
|
| 7-5 |
 6-6 |
|
| SOUTH 1  11-1 |
 6-6 |
|
| CLINCHED |  6-6 |
NFC Playoff Picture- Tentative game: None (NBC will show game with guaranteed playoff implications).
- Possible games: Jets-Bills, Ravens-Bengals, Bears-Lions, Packers-Vikings, Bucs-Falcons, Texans-Colts, Dolphins-Patriots, Cowboys-Redskins, Cardinals-49ers, Seahawks-Rams.