Month: November 2013

2013 NASCAR Ratings Wrap-Up

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Here are the ratings for every NASCAR Sprint Cup race in the 2013 season.

Every race on Fox outrated every race on cable, and only one race on ABC was able to beat any Fox races, even the Sprint Unlimited, the Irwin Tools Night Race from Bristol. As usual, ratings slowly tapered off after the Daytona 500 with the four March races outrating every non-Daytona race.

Other than the Irwin Tools Night Race, the most-watched race not on Fox was the Coke Zero 400 on TNT, followed by the Bank of America 500, the most-watched Chase race, on ABC. ESPN’s most watched race, as usual, was the Brickyard 400, followed by the AdvoCare 500 from Atlanta. The most-watched Chase race on ESPN was the Ford 400, followed by the Camping World RV Sales 500. The Camping World RV Sales 301 was TNT’s most-watched race outside Daytona.

The least-watched Sprint Cup race on broadcast was ABC’s remaining race, the Federated Auto Parts 400 – which still outrated every Chase race on cable. The least-watched race overall was the Geico 400, but due to weather delays that race finished on ESPN2; the portion of the race that aired on ESPN had 3.623 million viewers, which would still make it the only points race with fewer viewers than the Sprint All-Star Race. The next-least viewed race was the Sylvania 300; the least-viewed non-Chase race was the Quaker State 400 on TNT, a race bumped to Sunday by rain, and the least-viewed non-Chase race to run at its normal time was the Cheez-It 355 at the Glen, followed by the Party in the Poconos 400 on TNT. The least-viewed non-Chase race on ESPN not on a road course was the Pure Michigan 400 – which outrated seven of the ten Chase races (and three of TNT’s six races).

Numbers for Sprint Cup races from Jayski.com. 18-49 numbers, when available, from The Futon Critic and TVbytheNumbers.

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Sports Ratings Report for Week of November 4-10

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Here’s the updated list of the most-viewed programs in Fox Sports 1 history through November 10 after Oklahoma-Baylor set the new record this week:

   

Vwr (mil) 

HH 

18-49 

Time 

1 

CFB: Oklahoma @ Baylor

2.11

1.3 

0.7

11/7 7:30 PM 

2 

UFC Fight Night: Shogun v. Sonnen

1.782 

1.0 

  

8/17 8:00 PM 

3 

CFB: Oregon @ Washington

1.765 

1.0 

  

10/12 4:00 PM 

4 

CFB: Washington State @ Oregon

1.135 

0.6 

0.4

10/19 10:00 PM 

5 

NCWTS: Fred’s 250

1.021 

0.7 

  

10/19 4:01 PM 

6 

UFC Fight Night Prelims

0.881 

0.5 

  

8/17 6:00 PM 

7 

The Ultimate Fighter 18, Women’s Qtrs:
Ladies First (Bazler v. Pena)

0.87 

0.6 

0.5

9/11 10:00 PM 

8 

CFB: Washington State @ USC

0.825 

0.5 

  

9/7 10:30 PM 

9 

UFC Fight Night: Condit v. Kampmann 2

0.824 

0.5 

0.4

8/28 8:00 PM 

10 

NCWTS: Winstar World Casino 350

0.815 

0.5 

  

11/1 8:31 PM 

Sports Ratings Highlights for Week of October 14-20

Numbers compiled from a variety of sources, including TV by the Numbers, The Futon Critic, Sports Media Watch, and Son of the Bronx.

 

Vwr (mil) 

HH 

18-49 

Net 

NFL: Regional coverage
(main game: Broncos @ Chargers)

24.069 

14.3 

7.8 

CBS 

Sunday Night Football:
Cowboys @ Saints

21.09 

12.3 

7.9 

NBC 

NFL: Regional coverage (or 4 PM ET) 

20.2 

12.2 

  

FOX 

Monday Night Football: 

17.69 

9.1 

6.1 

ESPN+
Locals

NFL: Regional coverage 

12.7 

8.0 

  

CBS

CFB: LSU @ Alabama 

11.903 

6.9 

4.1 

CBS 

Thursday Night Football: 

7.709 

4.6 

2.4 

NFLN+
Locals

CFB: Oregon @ Stanford 

5.732 

3.6 

2.2 

ESPN 

CFB: Nebraska @ Michigan 

4.8 

3.1 

  

ABC 

CFB: Mississippi State @ Texas A&M 

4.5 

2.9 

  

CBS 

NASCAR

4.271 

2.7 

1.0 

ESPN 

CFB: Notre Dame @ Pittsburgh

3.034 

2.0 

0.6 

ABC 

World Series of Poker:
Main Event Final Table Part II

1.234 

0.9 

0.4 

ESPN 

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Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 12

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NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it still says late games start at 4:15 ET instead of 4:25):

  • Begins Sunday of Week 11
  • In effect during Weeks 11-17
  • Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
  • The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
  • The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
  • The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
  • The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
  • Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
  • NFL schedules all games.
  • Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
  • Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 in 2006 and 2011, because NBC hosted Christmas night games those years and all the other games were moved to Saturday (and so couldn’t be flexed), but are otherwise protected after Week 5.
  • In the past, three teams could appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. I don’t know how the expansion of the Thursday Night schedule affects this, if it does. No team starts the season completely tapped out at any measure; six teams have five primetime appearances each, but only the 49ers don’t have at least one game that can be flexed out. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 17):

  • Selected game: Kansas City @ Denver.

Week 12 (November 24):

  • Selected game: Denver @ New England.

Week 13 (December 1):

  • Selected game: NY Giants @ Washington.

Week 14 (December 8):

  • Selected game: Carolina @ New Orleans. A case could be made that this pick, as opposed to Lions-Eagles, actually wasn’t that far-thinking of the NFL, especially given the released protection on Chiefs-Broncos earlier in the year; see Week 16 below.

Week 15 (December 15):

  • Tentative game: Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh
  • Prospects: The Steelers’ 5-6 record now has them tied for second in the division (and in a six-way tie for the six seed), while the Bengals aren’t looking quite so strong as they were. If the Steelers keep winning, this game may yet keep its spot, especially given the lack of other options.
  • Protected games: Packers-Cowboys (FOX) and Patriots-Dolphins (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Cardinals-Titans and Jets-Panthers both involve other teams in the six-way tie for the AFC six seed, and if we’re talking about 5-6 teams we have to talk about Saints-Rams.
  • Analysis: Honestly, at this point any other alternative probably needs the Steelers to lose to have any shot at overcoming the tentative game bias. Saints-Rams may be too lopsided to mention, and the best-case scenario for the other two might be 8-4 v. 6-6 with Bengals-Steelers sitting at 8-4 or 7-5 v. 5-7. That suggests it may be impossible to overcome the tentative game bias even if the Steelers do lose. Would NBC and the NFL be willing to overlook lopsidedness at 9-3 v. 6-6 going against 7-5 v. 5-7? It’s possible, especially with the TV-friendliness of the Saints, Jets, and Panthers, and especially if 6-6 is good enough for a playoff spot, but I’m not going to count on it.
  • Final prediction: Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers (no change).

Week 16 (December 22):

  • Tentative game: New England @ Baltimore
  • Prospects: 8-3 v. 5-6; pretty lopsided, but the name value could still save it if it weren’t for the strong alternatives, and the Ravens are very much alive in the playoff hunt (then again, every AFC team that’s not the Texans – more on them in a bit – and Jags are).
  • Protected games: Broncos-Texans (CBS) and Cowboys-Indians (FOX).
  • Other possible games: CBS’ decision to protect Broncos-Texans over Colts-Chiefs was questionable at the time since the Texans definitely had the worst record of the four at 2-3 and seemed to be in a tailspin; now it seems to have given the Texans the kiss of death, as they haven’t won since (even losing to the freaking Jaguars!) and the Colts and Chiefs have only two-thirds as many losses between them as the Texans have themselves. But Colts-Chiefs will have to compete with the Saints-Panthers rematch, especially with CBS holding the doubleheader, and Cardinals-Seahawks and Bears-Eagles are waiting in the wings with Steelers-Packers a very dark horse.

Week 17 (December 29):

AFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION
LEADERS		 WILD CARD WAITING IN
THE WINGS
NORTH
47-4		 59-2 5-6
2 tied at 5-6 5-6
SOUTH
37-3		 65-6 5-6
5-6 5-6
EAST
28-3		 5-6
2 tied at 5-6 4-7
WEST
19-2		 4-7
9-2 4-7
NFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION
LEADERS		 WILD CARD WAITING IN
THE WINGS (5-6)
EAST
46-5		 58-3
6-5
NORTH
36-5		 67-4
6-5
SOUTH
29-2		 7-4
8-3 6-5
WEST
110-1		 6-5
2 tied at 7-4 5-5-1
  • Tentative game: None (NBC will show game with guaranteed playoff implications).
  • Possible games: Eagles-Cowboys (the odds-on favorite), Packers-Bears, Ravens-Bengals, Jets-Dolphins, 49ers-Cardinals, Rams-Seahawks.

The Studio Show Scorecard for Week of November 4-10

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PT Rnk

TD Rnk

 Oct Distr.
(000)		 PT Vwr
(000)		 LW/LY TD Vwr
(000)		 TD HH TD Vwr
LW/LY

1

=

1

=

98891

3559

+49%

1446

1.0

+23%

=

=

85%

3559

+16%

1446

+22%

+13%

4

-1

2

=

98861

557

-8%

342

0.2

+4%

-1

=

85%

557

-16%

342

+1%

+14%

2

=

3

=

72464

947

-0%

273

0.2

-3%

=

=

63%

1292

+14%

372

+3%

+14%

3

+1

4

+2

90121

630

+167%

160

0.1

+89%

+1

=

78%

691

+237%

175

+108%

+62%

6

=

5

-1

79145

148

-14%

79

0.0

-13%

+1

+4

68%

185

+70%

99

-25%

+76%

5

=

6

+1

59950

170

-5%

73

0.0

-4%

=

=

52%

280

+1%

121

-22%

+13%

7

=

7

+1

75603

107

+5%

71

0.0

-4%

-1

-2

65%

140

+1%

93

-1%

+4%

8

=

8

-3

82964

105

+6%

71

0.0

-20%

+1

=

72%

125

+78%

85

-16%

+55%

9

=

9

=

75829

95

+48%

64

0.0

+16%

-1

-3

65%

124

+16%

84

+12%

-1%

10

=

10

=

71026

27

-10%

21

0.0

-32%

=

=

61%

38

-7%

29

-96%

+32%

Fox Sports 1 had its best week since the relaunch this week, mostly on the back of Oklahoma-Baylor, NASCAR, and UFC. More encouraging than that is the raw number, which seems to put them closer to the class of ESPN, ESPN2, and NFL Network than the morass below them, even managing to beat ESPN2 outright in primetime. As I’ve said before, though, most of the effect on FS1’s studio shows, if any, shouldn’t turn up until next week, but you should be able to draw your own conclusions from Friday’s numbers. For now, let it be said that the record for most-watched edition of Fox Sports Live remains the one on launch night.

ESPN2 Fri 11:54p 549
ESPN2 Fri 12:52a* 373
ESPN2 Tue 12:42a* 298
ESPN2 Wed 12a 221
ESPN2 Thu 5a 137
ESPN2 Thu 11:47p 124
ESPN2 Thu 12:47a 121
ESPNEWS Tue 11:21p 92
ESPNEWS Fri 11p 81
ESPN2 Tue 5a 80
ESPNEWS Wed 11p 76
ESPNEWS Fri 5a 69
ESPN2 Wed 5a 59
ESPNEWS Mon 11:32p 45
ESPNEWS Mon 2a 43
ESPNEWS Tue 1a 41
ESPNEWS Sat 9a 40
ESPNEWS Tue 2a 38
ESPNEWS Sat 5a 31
ESPNEWS Thu 2a 29
ESPNEWS Fri 9a 27
ESPNEWS Fri 2a 21
ESPNEWS Wed 9a 19
ESPNEWS Wed 1a 16
ESPNEWS Thu 9a 15
ESPNEWS Tue 9a 8
ESPNEWS Wed 2a 5

One thing that has stuck out for would-be fans of ESPN2’s Olbermann, especially on Awful Announcing, is that the show has regularly been shuffled back and forth, airing at random times and shuffling between ESPN2 and ESPNEWS. ESPN has scheduled it like any other postgame highlights show, but it’s really not; Olbermann doesn’t even do the show live when its first airing is delayed, so whatever highlights there are must be over by midnight no matter what. It doesn’t help that the show is affected by live events running long on both ESPN and ESPN2, because SportsCenter gets bumped to ESPN2 when live events on ESPN run long.

What effect is all the shuffling having on Olbermann’s ratings? At right is every airing of Olbermann this week on both ESPN2 and ESPNEWS; asterisks indicate abbreviated airings. Not once this week did Olbermann air at its normal time on ESPN2, always getting at least slightly bumped; next week we’ll see a Thursday edition of Olbermann that started on time and collected 108,000 viewers, far from the most-watched airing of that week but beaten by only one airing on ESPNEWS this week or next (one, unsurprisingly, that also started on time). Unsurprisingly the first-run airings on ESPN2 are the most popular, and the most popular airings on ESPNEWS are likewise the first-run episodes – but Monday appears to have fallen curiously behind, ranking behind a 5 AM airing later in the week, and its only airing on ESPN2, at 5 AM, wasn’t the most-watched 5 AM airing of Olbermann on ESPN2 for the week. Did people think there wasn’t going to be an episode of Olbermann that day due to the World Series of Poker? Clearly starting late even on News didn’t have an effect on Tuesday’s episode…

To get a better sense of how delays may be affecting overall viewership, here are the total number of viewers for every episode of Olbermann this week, counting only full airings:

  Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
Total 176 249 465 370 722
Average 44 50 93 74 144

One thing sticks out: Friday’s first-run airing of Olbermann had more viewers than any other day of the week had in total. In fact, the top three track with the most popular first-run airings on ESPN2, and the other two didn’t have full-length first-run airings before 5 AM ET. Those three first-run airings did better than that 108,000 figure Olbermann had when it started on time. That episode totaled 372,000 viewers across all airings (actually having two re-airs with more viewers than its first-run episode), only barely beating Thursday of this week, and an average of 62,000 per airing, dragged down by ESPNEWS re-airs that topped out at 13,000, beating only two total re-airs from this week.

Of all first-run, daily studio shows on ESPN2, Olbermann’s ratings on its own only really compare favorably to ESPNFC – and considering how opinionated Olbermann is one would expect it to do numbers more on par with what the opinion and debate shows earlier in the day are getting. From that it’s tempting to conclude that the frustration of trying to find Olbermann when it’s on is in fact turning people away from the show – especially people who can’t switch to ESPNEWS for some reason (the first-run numbers from this Tuesday’s episode on ESPNEWS aren’t that far off from that 108,000 figure). But look at that 549,000 figure at the top of the chart again. That’s not just inflated by its lead-in; that’s over half of the lead-in provided by the Louisville-Connecticut football game, which had 1.041 million viewers. If ESPN likes having some sort of general-sports postgame show to retain the viewership from whatever ESPN2 had on that night, it’s clear that Olbermann is at least succeeding on that front, no matter how poor a fit it might seem. Especially if it can keep beating Fox Sports Live.

All numbers are in thousands of viewers and are from Son of the Bronx.

Approx. 6-10 AM ET

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri
ESPN: SportsCenter (6-9 avg.) 596 888 512 390 695
ESPN2: Mike and Mike 281 331 295 305 280
FS1: Fox Sports Live (6-9 avg.) 21 18 7 29 29
GOLF: Morning Drive (7-9 avg.) 56 33 19 n/a n/a
NFLN: NFLAM 141 65 73 81 144
NBATV: NBA Gametime (6-9 avg.) 25 45 28 48 33*

*Inside the NBA

Approx. 9 AM-Noon ET

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri
ESPN: SportsCenter (9-12 avg.) 514 654 364 364 435
ESPN2: First Take (10-12) 382 468 437 419 351
FS1: Fox Sports Live (9-12 avg.) 22 32 11 25‡ 26
GOLF: Morning Drive (9-11 avg.) 36 27 25 27† 55†
NBCSN: The Dan Patrick Show 40 41 15 19 37
ESPNEWS: Mike and Mike (10-1) 30 46 40 22 34
ESPNU: The Herd (10-1) 74 63 28 52 48
NFLN: NFLAM (10-2) 124 64 78 76 82
MLBN: Hot Stove (9-11) 25 25 9 15 13
NBATV: NBA Gametime (9-12 avg.) 22 33 44 26 41*

*Inside the NBA
†10 AM hour only
‡9-11 average only

3 PM ET

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri
ESPN: NFL Insiders 540 614† 445 434 466
ESPN2: SportsNation 211 134 221 n/a n/a
FS1: Fox Soccer Daily (3:30-4) 32 128‡ 138‡ n/a n/a
ESPNEWS: SportsCenter 68 42 20 65 72
ESPNU: CFB Daily 33 30* 17 34 n/a
MLBN: Intentional Talk (3-3:30) 25 71 13 31 24
MLBN: Clubhouse Confidential (3:30-4) 41 44 38 43 35

*First-run rating for The Experts 1-2:30; 2:30-4 re-air had 35,000 viewers
†Aired from 3-3:30; Mike and Mike’s Best of the NFL 3:30-4 had 652,000 viewrrs
‡UEFA Champions League Soccer 2:30-5 PM

4 PM ET

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri
ESPN: NFL Live 801 674 560 697 667
ESPN2: Highly Questionable (4-4:30) 265 221 300 n/a n/a
ESPN2: Outside the Lines (4:30-5) 265 225 251 n/a n/a
FS1: NASCAR Race Hub 124 102† 97† 106* n/a
ESPNEWS: SportsCenter 49 57 28 83 79
MLBN: Hot Stove 40 30 26 48 14

*Aired 11-11:30 AM
†Aired at noon

5 PM ET

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri
ESPN: Around the Horn (5-5:30) 1118 784 753 812 789
ESPN: PTI (5:30-6) 1301 1101 1007 1035 1050
ESPN2: College Football Live (5-5:30) 163 137 39† 192 84
ESPN2: ESPNFC (5:30-6) 113 74 20^ 82 87
FS1: Crowd Goes Wild 57 37 n/a 42 113
NBCSN: Pro Football Talk (5:30-6:30) 54* 43 37 36 43
ESPNEWS: SportsCenter 137 111 61^ 110 68
ESPNU: College Football Live (5:30-6) 31 41 28 n/a 48
NFLN: NFL Fantasy Live 123 84 n/a‡ 142 170

*Aired 5-6:30
†Aired on ESPNU
‡Pre-empted by two-hour Around the League Live
^Aired on ESPNEWS; SportsCenter was abridged as a result

6 PM ET

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri
ESPN: SportsCenter 1209† 920 783 870 761
ESPN2: Around the Horn (6-6:30) 153 111 199 92^ 62¹
ESPN2: PTI (6:30-7) 247 267 288 97^ 100¹
FS1: Fox Football Daily 55 15 n/a 72 n/a
ESPNEWS: SportsNation n/a 55 33 174^ n/a
NFLN: Around the League Live 185 123 122 87* 171
MLBN: MLB Tonight 47 47~ 52~ 22~ 28
NBATV: The Starters 88 57 73‡ 18 61‡

*Aired 2-5; NFL Total Access 6-8 had 535,000 viewers
†Monday Kickoff from 6-6:30; SportsCenter on ESPNEWS 6:30-7 had 213,000 viewers
‡Aired at 5 ET; Gametime Thursday had 48,000 viewers, while Pregame 6:30 Friday had 91,000 viewers
^SportsNation aired on ESPN2 to make up for earlier pre-emption, bumping ATH and PTI to ESPNEWS
~Coverage of various awards
¹Aired on ESPNEWS

11 PM ET

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat
ESPN: SportsCenter n/a† 262‡ 340‡ n/a 651 169^
FS1: Fox Sports Live 37 67 142 341 88 162
ESPNEWS: Olbermann 45* 92* 76 n/a 81 n/a
NFLN: NFL Total Access 78* 169 125 2512* 159 77

*Aired 11:30-12:30
†SportsCenter on ESPNEWS was folded into 10 PM episode, which had 45,000 viewers
‡Aired on ESPN2
^Aired on ESPNEWS

Midnight ET

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat
ESPN: SportsCenter 5291 844* 1401 2702 773 216†
ESPN2: Olbermann n/a n/a 221 124 549 n/a
FS1: Fox Sports Live 55 56‡ 91‡ 157 75‡ 64

*Short airing following WSOP
†Aired on ESPNEWS
‡Fox Football Daily

1 AM ET

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat
ESPN: SportsCenter 84* 646 914 1347 626 1021
ESPN2: NBA Tonight (1:30-2) n/a 204† 169 n/a 398 n/a
FS1: Fox Sports Live 30 45 81 39 60 56
NFLN: NFL Fantasy Live 74 136 49 542 97 n/a

*Aired on ESPNEWS; NFL Primetime had 2.174 million viewers
†Aired 1-1:30

2 AM ET

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat
ESPN: SportsCenter 1395 475 599 1011 703 746
ESPN2: NASCAR Now (2-2:30) n/a 100† 134* 126 n/a 294‡
FS1: Fox Sports Live 19 9 60 24 26 77
NFLN: NFL Total Access 36 123 89 343 108 91

*Aired at 1
†Aired at 3
‡College Football Final

Saturday Morning  
ESPN: SportsCenter 8 ET 824
ESPN2: NFL Matchup 8:30 ET 190
FS1: Fox Sports Live 8-10 avg. 50
NBATV: NBA Gametime 8-12 avg. 49
ESPN: College Gameday 9 ET 1877
ESPN2: SportsCenter 9-12 avg. 358
GOLF: Morning Drive 9-11 avg. 96
ESPNU: Dari and Mel 9 ET 25
FS1: Fox College Saturday 10 ET 59
ESPNU: First Take CFB 10 ET 21
ESPNU: Whiparound 11 ET 75

morganwick.com

Sun 7 AM 8 AM 9 AM 10 AM 11 AM Noon

SportsCenter

SportsCenter

SportsCenter

Sunday NFL Countdown

689K/.5

957K/.7

1.013M/.8

2.010M/1.4

OTL

SR

Colin on FB

Fantasy FB Now

219

227

196K/.1

523K/.3

Fox Sports Live

Fox Sports Live

RaceDay

Fox NFL Kickoff

44K/.0

54K/.0

197K/.2

138K/.1

CFB Final

OTL

SR

Colin on FB

SportsCenter

SportsCenter

SportsCenter

177K/.1

92

122

100K/.1

202K/.1

192K/.1

NFL Gameday First

NFL Gameday Morning

175K/.1

490K/.4

MLB Tonight

MLB Tonight

MLB Tonight

MLB Tonight

MLB Tonight

MLB Tonight

9K/.0

8K/.0

7K/.0

17K/.0

18K/.0

21K/.0

NBA Gametime

NBA Gametime

NBA Gametime

NBA Gametime

NBA Gametime

NBA Gametime

43K/.0

57K/.0

39K/.0

42K/.0

45K/.0

27K/.0

Morning Drive on GOLF: 8:30-9:30 38,000, 9:30-10:30 40,000

Afternoon Post/SNF Bridge  
NBC: Hyundai Sunday Night Kickoff (8-8:20) 11,614
ESPN: SportsCenter (7-8:30) 971
NFLN: NFL Gameday Highlights (7:30-8:30) 282

morganwick.com

Sunday Night  
ESPN: SportsCenter 11 633
ESPN: SportsCenter 12:30 800
ESPN2: NASCAR Now 10 319
ESPN2: ESPNFC 12:30 80
FS1: Fox Sports Live 11 58
FS1: Fox Sports Live 12:30 35
NFLN: NFL Gameday Overtime 11:30 266
NFLN: NFL Gameday Final 12 301

morganwick.com

Weekly Shows on ESPN and Networks Not On Chart
ESPN: Monday Night Countdown Mon 6:30p 3308
ESPN: NASCAR Countdown (NSCS) Sun 2p 1398
TNT: Inside the NBA Thu 12:30a 1372
ESPN: E:60 Tue 7p 809
ESPN: BCS Countdown Sun 8:30p 623
ESPN: Top NFL Matchup airing Sun 6:30a 466

morganwick.com

Top 10 Non-ESPN Weekly Shows Not Otherwise On Chart
ESPN2: NASCAR Countdown (NNS) Sat 3:30p 790
FS1: Fox College Thursday Thu 7p 475
NFLN: A Football Life Tue 9p 359
GOLF: Big Break XX: NFL Tue 9p 249
NFLN: NFL Gamecenter Sun 1p 237
NFLN: Playbook AFC Fri 9p 221
ESPN2: NFL Primetime First-Run Mon 2p 218
NFLN: A Football Life Backstory Tue 10p 201
NFLN: Playbook NFC Fri 10p 192
ESPN2: Football Sunday on ESPN Radio Sun 5p 177
NFLN: NFL Gameday Scoreboard Sun 4p 168
ESPN2: NFL Kickoff Fri 6p 162

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 11

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NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it still says late games start at 4:15 ET instead of 4:25):

  • Begins Sunday of Week 11
  • In effect during Weeks 11-17
  • Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
  • The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
  • The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
  • The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
  • The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
  • Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
  • NFL schedules all games.
  • Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
  • Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 in 2006 and 2011, because NBC hosted Christmas night games those years and all the other games were moved to Saturday (and so couldn’t be flexed), but are otherwise protected after Week 5.
  • In the past, three teams could appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. I don’t know how the expansion of the Thursday Night schedule affects this, if it does. No team starts the season completely tapped out at any measure; six teams have five primetime appearances each, but only the 49ers don’t have at least one game that can be flexed out. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 17):

  • Selected game: Kansas City @ Denver.

Week 12 (November 24):

  • Selected game: Denver @ New England.

Week 13 (December 1):

  • Selected game: NY Giants @ Washington.

Week 14 (December 8):

  • Tentative game: Atlanta @ Green Bay
  • Prospects: 2-8 v. 5-5. Ouch.
  • Protected games: Colts-Bengals (CBS) and Seahawks-49ers (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Lions-Eagles is becoming interesting, but when one team already has five losses, it can’t compete with…
  • Analysis: It’s Panthers-Saints. It’s Cam Newton v. Drew Brees. It’s a team I’ve been fascinated by ever since they rode the league’s most exciting offense Newton’s rookie season to a 6-10 record, making it inevitable they would go defense with their first-round pick in the draft, only to have Luke Kuechly’s Defensive Rookie of the Year season ruined by Newton’s sophomore slump, but now are in prime position to make the playoffs and could take the lead in the division with a win. It’s Riverboat Ron v. Bountygate Sean. It’s Carrie Underwood blandly singing “Panthers and the Saints, a division showdown” (seriously, “Waiting All Day for Sunday Night” is no “Are You Ready for some Football”, but at least Faith Hill didn’t seem like she was going through the motions singing the lines that were written for someone else and actually seemed like she wasn’t completely incongruous singing about football even though Underwood has dated Tony Romo in the past). And perhaps most importantly, it’s a battle between two teams with as many losses between them as the Eagles have by themselves with the division lead on the line. What could keep this game from being flexed in is that other Panthers games could also be flexed in each of the next two weeks, including the return match of this game, so the existence of Lions-Eagles as a safety valve may cause the NFL to hold off for now, but that would be more likely if CBS had protected Colts-Chiefs in two weeks instead of Broncos-Texans, and even then I still wouldn’t pick against this game.
  • Final prediction: Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints.

Week 15 (December 15):

  • Tentative game: Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh
  • Prospects: The Steelers’ 4-6 record now has them tied for second in the division, while the Bengals aren’t looking quite so strong as they were. If the Steelers keep winning, this game may yet keep its spot, especially given the lack of other options.
  • Protected games: Packers-Cowboys (FOX) and Patriots-Dolphins (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Jets-Panthers is the only game not involving a team below .500 (there’s a comment on the Last-Minute Remarks post telling me to look out for Seahawks-Giants if the Giants keep winning, but not only would that require the Seahawks to lose as well to keep from being horribly lopsided, it would also require the Steelers to lose more to overcome the tentative game bias).

Week 16 (December 22):

  • Tentative game: New England @ Baltimore
  • Prospects: 7-3 v. 4-6; pretty lopsided, but the name value could still save it if it weren’t for the strong alternatives, and the Ravens are very much alive in the playoff hunt (then again, every AFC team that’s not the Texans – more on them in a bit – and Jags are).
  • Protected games: Broncos-Texans (CBS) and Cowboys-Indians (FOX).
  • Other possible games: CBS’ decision to protect Broncos-Texans over Colts-Chiefs was questionable at the time since the Texans definitely had the worst record of the four at 2-3 and seemed to be in a tailspin; now it seems to have given the Texans the kiss of death, as they haven’t won since and the Colts and Chiefs have half as many losses between them as the Texans have themselves. But Colts-Chiefs will have to compete with the Saints-Panthers rematch, and Cardinals-Seahawks and Bears-Eagles are waiting in the wings.

Week 17 (December 29):

AFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION
LEADERS		 WILD CARD WAITING IN
THE WINGS
NORTH
47-4		 59-1 4-6
3 tied at 4-6 4-6
EAST
37-3		 65-5 4-6
2 tied at 5-5 4-6
SOUTH
27-3		 5-5 4-6
4-6 4-6
WEST
19-1		 4-7
9-1
NFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION
LEADERS		 WILD CARD WAITING IN
THE WINGS (4-6)
EAST
46-5		 57-3
5-5
NORTH
36-4		 66-4
6-4
SOUTH
28-2		 6-4
7-3 6-4
WEST
110-1		 5-5
2 tied at 6-4 5-5
  • Tentative game: None (NBC will show game with guaranteed playoff implications).
  • Possible games: Eagles-Cowboys (the odds-on favorite), Packers-Bears, Jets-Dolphins, 49ers-Cardinals, Rams-Seahawks.

Top 500 Most-Watched Programs in ESPNU’s First Year of Nielsen Ratings

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Near as I can tell, ESPNU first became Nielsen-rated just over a year ago, just before the start of November 2012. Here are the 500 (technically 505) most-watched programs over the course of that first year of Nielsen rating from October 29, 2012 through October 27, 2013. A more up-to-date list that will be maintained on a weekly basis will be found here. All numbers from Son of the Bronx.

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Last-Minute Remarks on SNF Week 13 Picks

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Week 13 (December 2):

  • Tentative game: NY Giants @ Washington
  • Prospects: 4-6 v. 3-7. The name value and NFC East tire fire helps, but these are the worse two teams in the division.
  • Protected games: Broncos-Chiefs (CBS) and Bears-Vikings (FOX).
  • Other possible games mentioned on last week’s Watch and their records: Cardinals (6-4)-Eagles (6-5), Titans (4-6)-Colts (7-3), Dolphins (5-5)-Jets (5-5), Bengals (7-4)-Chargers (4-6).
  • Impact of Monday Night Football: None.
  • Analysis: Cardinals-Eagles is the only real contender left, with a definite leg up on second-place Dolphins-Jets. If you got rid of the team names and just looked at records, you would think the game between two six-win teams would be a shoo-in to be flexed in over a game between two six-loss teams, even with the tentative game bias. But the Cardinals are a massive weak link that basically no one knows about, and even the Eagles, especially with Michael Vick out and potentially losing his starting job, aren’t really as attractive as their NFC East brethren and Eli Manning v. RGIII. If one of the teams in the tentative game were the Cowboys, this game keeping its spot would be just as much a shoo-in as Cardinals-Eagles being flexed in would be if records were all that mattered. As it stands, even though I would be far from surprised to see Cardinals-Eagles flexed in and think this is pretty close to a toss-up, I still have to say…
  • Final prediction: New York Giants @ Washington RG3’s (no change).

Sports Ratings Report for Week of October 28-November 3

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Sports Ratings Highlights for Week of October 28-November 3

Numbers compiled from a variety of sources, including TV by the Numbers, The Futon Critic, Sports Media Watch, and Son of the Bronx.

 

Vwr (mil)

HH

18-49

Net

NFL: Regional coverage
(main game: Steelers @ Patriots)

23.987

  

7.7

CBS

World Series, Game 6:
Cardinals @ Red Sox

19.178

  

5.7

FOX

Sunday Night Football:
Colts @ Texans

17.04

  

6.3

NBC

World Series, Game 5:
Red Sox @ Cardinals

14.446

  

4.1

FOX

Monday Night Football

11.284

7.0

4.2

ESPN+
Locals

CFB: Miami @ Florida State

8.354

5.1

2.8

ABC

Thursday Night Football

6.915

4.2

2.5

NFLN+
Locals

NBA Opening Night:
Bulls @ Heat

5.373

  

2.5

TNT

CFB: Michigan @ Michigan State

5.2

3.3

  

ABC

CFB: Georgia v. Florida

4.9

3.1

  

CBS

NASCAR

4.179

2.6

1.0

ESPN

NBA Opening Night:
Clippers @ Lakers

3.571

  

1.8

TNT

CFB: Regional coverage

3.5

2.3

  

ABC

CFB: Navy @ Notre Dame

2.6

1.7

  

NBC

Breeder’s Cup Classic

2.118

  

0.4

NBC

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The Studio Show Scorecard for Week of October 28-November 3

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PT Rnk

TD Rnk

 Oct Distr.
(000)		 PT Vwr
(000)		 LW/LY TD Vwr
(000)		 TD HH TD Vwr
LW/LY

1

=

1

=

98891

2382

-22%

1176

0.8

-9%

=

=

85%

2382

-11%

1176

-7%

+2%

3

=

2

=

98861

603

-18%

329

0.2

+6%

=

=

85%

603

+30%

329

+7%

-2%

2

=

3

=

72464

951

+25%

283

0.2

+19%

=

=

63%

1298

+24%

386

+12%

+40%

6

-1

4

+1

79145

172

+12%

91

0.0

+10%

=

+4

68%

215

+93%

114

+2%

+63%

8

=

5

+2

82964

99

+5%

89

0.1

+18%

+1

+4

72%

118

+65%

106

-4%

+77%

4

=

6

-2

90121

236

+33%

85

0.0

-23%

+1

-2

78%

259

+46%

93

-30%

-17%

5

+1

7

+2

59950

179

+57%

76

0.0

+66%

-1

-2

52%

295

+4%

126

+104%

-13%

7

=

8

-2

75603

102

+4%

74

0.0

-8%

=

-2

65%

133

+16%

97

-23%

+14%

9

=

9

-1

75829

64

-25%

55

0.0

-10%

-1

-2

65%

83

+3%

72

-7%

-4%

10

=

10

=

71026

30

-29%

31

0.0

-32%

+1

+1

61%

42

+20%

43

-60%

+81%

I’m leaving Da Blog Poll up for another week and doing this for at least another two weeks so I can measure the impact on FS1 of the Oklahoma-Baylor game last week, which finally broke the FS1 record held by the launch-night UFC card and became the first FS1 program to crack the 2-million-viewer barrier. But be warned, the SSS the next two weeks could be pretty chaotic.

Earlier in the week Awful Announcing’s Joe Lucia used the same Son of the Bronx data I use to argue that, when compared to networks that aren’t ESPN, ESPN2, or NFL Network, FS1 is actually doing quite well. Unfortunately, he drew some flawed conclusions and ignored one undeniable fact in his data that shows how much FS1 really is struggling that doesn’t require a comparison to anyone but itself:

  • He claims that FS1 is doing well in total day because of UEFA Champions League soccer, which, while it does better than the normal timeslot occupants at 3 and 4 ET, is barely a blip on the radar compared to FS1’s other sports events. It’s far more likely that FS1’s strong total-day performance has more to do with college football and NASCAR practice and qualifying.
  • He claims that Crowd Goes Wild has consistently performed well compared to other daily afternoon and evening studio shows on FS1, NBCSN, and MLB Network, going toe to toe for the top spot with Intentional Talk among the shows he compares that aren’t NASCAR Race Hub… ignoring the fact that Crowd Goes Wild’s ratings are ridiculously, insanely inflated when it has NASCAR practice or qualifying as a lead-in.

Those two things, plus the dominance of Race Hub, point to one undeniable fact: a big chunk of FS1’s audience are still disproportionately holdovers from the Speed days, and at least at this point, fans of other sports have not yet found the channel. Yes, even UFC fans; they came out for launch night and have provided some of FS1’s most popular programming, and in fact Lucia also compared UFC Tonight to the daily shows and it wound up coming in second, but that launch night card wasn’t even the most-watched card on cable of 2013, and ratings for The Ultimate Fighter are way down compared to last season on FX. That Speed did well enough that the rest of the FS1 schedule is still comparable to NBCSN and MLBN doesn’t really hide that.

What can be said about FS1 compared to its competition?

  • FS1 is fairly consistently placing fourth in total day and primetime behind ESPN, ESPN2, and NFL Network… except this week when it fell to sixth in total day behind the Comcast networks.
  • Fox Soccer Daily is doing poorly compared to ESPNFC later in the day, which may sound like a bad comparison until you realize that ESPNFC is one of the worst-performing shows on ESPN2.
  • When insulated from NASCAR lead-ins, Crowd Goes Wild is running neck-in-neck with Pro Football Talk, but that may say more about the problems PFT and NBCSN in general are having. CGW could not compete with Intentional Talk during baseball season. Fox Football Daily, meanwhile, seems to lose substantially from its CGW lead-in, which means it’s substantially behind PFT and any other regularly scheduled show in its time slot.
  • First-run airings of Fox Sports Live generally don’t fall much below 30,000, which is roughly at CGW’s level, but Sundays can be very vulnerable, at least during football season. In general FSL is very lead-in-dependent, and its re-airs tend to be susceptible to random fluctuations; numbers can get truly pathetic for late-night and early-morning re-airs.
  • Fox College Saturday was consistently beating college football pre-game coverage on ESPNU… except for this week.
  • This week, without NASCAR RaceDay or other NASCAR coverage as a lead-in, Fox NFL Kickoff still attracted over 100,000 viewers. That put it behind other NFL pregame shows (including Fantasy Football Now, bumped to ESPNEWS for the New York City Marathon, NFL Gameday First earlier in the day, and the Saturday morning ESPN2 airing of NFL Matchup), but did beat re-airs of ESPN2 programming on ESPNEWS earlier and re-airs of NBA Gametime on NBATV. Of course, that’s sort of damning with faint praise, but it did manage to beat Morning Drive on Golf Channel earlier.

All numbers are in thousands of viewers and are from Son of the Bronx.

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Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 10

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NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it still says late games start at 4:15 ET instead of 4:25):

  • Begins Sunday of Week 11
  • In effect during Weeks 11-17
  • Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
  • The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
  • The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
  • The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
  • The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
  • Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
  • NFL schedules all games.
  • Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
  • Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 in 2006 and 2011, because NBC hosted Christmas night games those years and all the other games were moved to Saturday (and so couldn’t be flexed), but are otherwise protected after Week 5.
  • In the past, three teams could appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. I don’t know how the expansion of the Thursday Night schedule affects this, if it does. No team starts the season completely tapped out at any measure; six teams have five primetime appearances each, but only the 49ers don’t have at least one game that can be flexed out. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 17):

  • Selected game: Kansas City @ Denver.

Week 12 (November 24):

  • Selected game: Denver @ New England.

Week 13 (December 1):

  • Tentative game: NY Giants @ Washington
  • Prospects: 3-6 v. 3-6. The name value and NFC East tire fire helps, but these are the worse two teams in the division.
  • Protected games: Broncos-Chiefs (CBS) and Bears-Vikings (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Thanksgiving weekend, paucity of good games; Cardinals-Eagles is the only game that doesn’t involve a team with a losing record. Titans-Colts, Dolphins-Jets, and Bengals-Chargers become options if you look at 4-5 teams.
  • Analysis: None of these games offer much in the way of starpower, and none of them are so much better as to overcome the tentative game bias. Even discounting lopsidedness and name value, is 6-3 v. 4-5 really that much better than 3-6 v. 3-6? That’s not to say this game won’t get flexed out, but if both of its participants win this week there’s no way this game isn’t keeping its spot, it might be able to keep its spot with just one team winning, and the 4-5 teams need to win regardless. Still, you have to at least look at a 6-4 v. 5-5 game, as Bengals-Chargers would be (and as Titans-Colts could be even with a Colts loss), if the alternative is 3-7 v. 3-7.

Week 14 (December 8):

  • Tentative game: Atlanta @ Green Bay
  • Prospects: 2-7 v. 5-4. Doesn’t look good.
  • Protected games: Colts-Bengals (CBS) and Seahawks-49ers (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Panthers-Saints is looking very strong to give Cam Newton his first NBC game with only one game separating the two for the NFC South crown, and Lions-Eagles is also a dark horse.

Week 15 (December 15):

  • Tentative game: Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh
  • Prospects: If I told you before the season that this game would be 6-4 v. 3-6 after Week 9, and you didn’t have the bye week schedule on hand, would you have ever guessed that the Steelers would be the 3-6 team?
  • Protected games: Packers-Cowboys (FOX) and Patriots-Dolphins (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Jets-Panthers is the only game not involving a team below .500.

Week 16 (December 22):

  • Tentative game: New England @ Baltimore
  • Prospects: 7-2 v. 4-5; pretty lopsided, but the name value could still save it if it weren’t for the strong alternatives, and the Ravens might be climbing back into this thing.
  • Protected games: Broncos-Texans (CBS) and Cowboys-Indians (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Very surprised CBS chose to protect Broncos-Texans, a game involving a team that was 2-3 and in a tailspin at the time (and hasn’t won since), instead of Colts-Chiefs, two teams now leading their respective divisions and with three losses between them. Perhaps CBS had its eye more on getting Pats-Ravens back. But Colts-Chiefs will have to compete with the Saints-Panthers rematch, and Cardinals-Seahawks and Bears-Eagles are waiting in the wings.

Week 17 (December 29):

AFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION
LEADERS		 WILD CARD WAITING IN
THE WINGS
NORTH
46-4		 58-1 4-5
2 tied at 4-5 4-5
SOUTH
36-3		 65-4 4-5
4-5 4-5
EAST
27-2		 4-5
5-4 3-6
WEST
19-0		 3-6
8-1 3-7
NFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION
LEADERS		 WILD CARD WAITING IN
THE WINGS (5-5)
EAST
45-5		 56-3
5-5
NORTH
36-3		 66-3
2 tied at 5-4
SOUTH
27-2		 5-4
6-3 5-4
WEST
19-1		 5-4
6-3
  • Tentative game: None (NBC will show game with guaranteed playoff implications).
  • Possible games: Eagles-Cowboys (the odds-on favorite), Packers-Bears, Jets-Dolphins, 49ers-Cardinals, Rams-Seahawks.