Broadcast Rat Race Week 7: NBC: “‘Blindspot’, You Get a Renewal! ‘Chicago Fire’ and ‘P.D.’, You Get a Renewal! ‘Mysteries of Laura’, You Get Three Extra Episodes!”

For the most part, the dawn of November sweeps means we’ve moved out of the part of the schedule where new shows’ fates are decided, at least those that premiered in September, and networks’ attention is starting to turn to midseason – or in the case of NBC, next season, as “Blindspot”, “Chicago Fire”, and “Chicago P.D.” have all already been renewed for next season, a surprise in the timing even if the fact of them is a surprise for none of them. Fox announced its midseason schedule and premiere dates Tuesday, and I’ll be looking at the implications in each Fox show’s individual entry. I’ve also reassessed the bottom of CBS’s slate and just what sort of challenge CBS has in putting together its own midseason schedule.

“Castle” and ABC’s Wednesday lineup were pre-empted for the CMA Awards, but that’s not nearly enough to throw out the weekly index numbers for the remaining shows like with Fox and the World Series last week. CBS bows veteran “2 Broke Girls” this week.

How to read the chart: First box shows current time slot, second box current season number. Eps: Total number of episodes aired / total number of episodes ordered (if known). Last: 18-49 rating of the most recent episode. Raw: Average of first-run 18-49 ratings. Adj.: Average of the most recent episode and the previous Adj. rating. WklIdx: Last divided by the network scripted show average for the week. RawIdx: Raw divided by the network scripted show average for the season. Index: Adj. divided by the network scripted show average for the season. In general, >1.1=certain renewal, .85-1.1=probable renewal, .7-.85=on the bubble, .6-.7=probably cancelled. Anything substantially less than .6 for rookie shows indicates a dead show walking. Prod: Production company that produces the show (ABC=ABC Studios, CBS=CBS Television, Fox=20th Television, NBCU=Universal Television, Sony=Sony Pictures Television, WB=Warner Bros. Television). Incorporates ratings through Sunday, November 8; write-ups do not take into account Monday’s or Tuesday’s ratings. Weekly averages used: CBS 1.62, ABC 1.47, FOX 1.39, NBC 1.25, CW .64. Network averages used: ABC 1.73, CBS 1.69, FOX 1.60, NBC 1.37, CW .65.

Empire Last: 4.6 Raw: 5.23 Adj.: 4.79 WklIdx: 3.32 RawIdx: 3.27 Index: 2.99 Fox #1
The Big Bang Theory Last: 3.7 Raw: 4.04 Adj.: 3.94 WklIdx: 2.28 RawIdx: 2.40 Index: 2.34 CBS #1
The Flash Last: 1.5 Raw: 1.42 Adj.: 1.45 WklIdx: 2.33 RawIdx: 2.18 Index: 2.22 CW #1
Blindspot Last: 2.2 Raw: 2.43 Adj.: 2.21 WklIdx: 1.75 RawIdx: 1.78 Index: 1.62 NBC #1
Modern Family Last: N/A Raw: 2.86 Adj.: 2.75 WklIdx: N/A RawIdx: 1.68 Index: 1.59 ABC #1
Supergirl CBS #2 Cert. Renew
Mon 8:00 Season 1 Eps: 2/13? Last: 2.2 Raw: 2.65 Adj.: 2.65 WklIdx: 1.36 RawIdx: 1.57 Index: 1.57 Prod: WB
Hmm. I said last week that “Supergirl” would need to fall to 1.8 in order to slip to only probable renewal… and yesterday it slipped all the way to a 1.7. That would be good for about a 1.30 adjusted index number, so next week it’ll still have an outsize effect on what shows get condensed or not if it’s not given a back nine by then, and after three weeks I would expect it to have held on to whatever audience it’s going to have so it’s not like it’s in serious jeopardy of not being renewed, but it could still easily fall further and it’s not that far ahead of what “The Flash” pulls for the CW.
Arrow CW #2 Cert. Renew
Wed 8:00 Season 4 Eps: 74/92 Last: 1.1 Raw: 1.0 Adj.: 1.02 WklIdx: 1.71 RawIdx: 1.53 Index: 1.56 Prod: WB
“Arrow” bounced back two-tenths this week, returning to the level of the premiere.
Grey’s Anatomy ABC #2 Cert. Renew
Thu 8:00 Season 12 Eps: 251/269 Last: 2.3 Raw: 2.38 Adj.: 2.33 WklIdx: 1.57 RawIdx: 1.38 Index: 1.35 Prod: ABC
“Grey’s Anatomy” lost steam and gave back a tenth after a week’s hiatus, but that’s still better than the three-tenths “Scandal” gave up in the interim.
Scandal ABC #3 Cert. Renew
Thu 9:00 Season 5 Eps: 76/90 Last: 2.2 Raw: 2.59 Adj.: 2.31 WklIdx: 1.5 RawIdx: 1.49 Index: 1.34 Prod: ABC
“Scandal” “only” declined a tenth when it got “Grey’s Anatomy” back as a lead-in instead of “It’s the Great Pumpkin, Charlie Brown”. It also fell behind “Grey’s” in the pecking order for the first time in quite some time.
NCIS CBS #3 Cert. Renew
Tue 8:00 Season 13 Eps: 289/306 Last: 2.3 Raw: 2.23 Adj.: 2.22 WklIdx: 1.42 RawIdx: 1.32 Index: 1.32 Prod: CBS
“NCIS” gained a full two-tenths this week to break out of the 2.2-2.1 cycle.
Chicago Fire NBC #2 Renewed
Tue 10:00 Season 4 Eps: 73/92 Last: 1.8 Raw: 1.78 Adj.: 1.8 WklIdx: 1.43 RawIdx: 1.30 Index: 1.32 Prod: NBCU
After shooting up three-tenths last week, “Chicago Fire” cooled down a tenth this week, returning to the level of the premiere.
The Goldbergs ABC #4 Cert. Renew
Wed 8:30 Season 3 Eps: 53 Last: N/A Raw: 2.2 Adj.: 2.16 WklIdx: N/A RawIdx: 1.27 Index: 1.24 Prod: Sony
Not much to say about “The Goldbergs” that hasn’t already been said when it takes a week off, except wondering if the week off might make its recent upward momentum stall.
The Simpsons FOX #2 Renewed
Sun 8:00 Season 27 Eps: 580/596 Last: 1.5 Raw: 1.95 Adj.: 1.87 WklIdx: 1.08 RawIdx: 1.22 Index: 1.18 Prod: Fox
“The Simpsons” fell back to Earth without the NFL as a lead-in.
Life in Pieces CBS #4 Cert. Renew
Thu 8:30 Season 1 Eps: 6/22 Last: 1.9 Raw: 2.03 Adj.: 1.96 WklIdx: 1.17 RawIdx: 1.21 Index: 1.16 Prod: Fox
Although “The Big Bang Theory” fell to its low for the season upon moving to Thursday, “Life in Pieces” did not, pulling in the same number as its second and third episodes. That bodes well for its long-term survival chances.
The Middle ABC #5 Cert. Renew
Wed 8:00 Season 7 Eps: 149 Last: N/A Raw: 2.03 Adj.: 1.98 WklIdx: N/A RawIdx: 1.17 Index: 1.15 Prod: WB
A week off means inflation for “The Middle”‘s index numbers and a bit of buffer for its newfound certain-renewal status.
How to Get Away with Murder ABC #6 Cert. Renew
Thu 10:00 Season 2 Eps: 22/30 Last: 1.9 Raw: 2.13 Adj.: 1.93 WklIdx: 1.30 RawIdx: 1.23 Index: 1.12 Prod: ABC
While “Scandal” continued to fall with “Grey’s Anatomy” restored to the top of the night, “How to Get Away with Murder” rebounded a tenth, though it’s still down two-tenths from its last “Grey’s”-fueled episode.
Law and Order: SVU NBC #3 Cert. Renew
Wed 9:00 Season 17 Eps: 372/389 Last: 1.5 Raw: 1.6 Adj.: 1.52 WklIdx: 1.20 RawIdx: 1.17 Index: 1.11 Prod: NBCU
A week off allowed NBC’s network average to fall enough for “Law and Order: SVU” to climb above the certain-renewal threshold, and it responded with the same 1.5 it’s pulled the past few weeks, which pretty much kept its index numbers the same. It’s only barely above the certain-renewal threshold, and some movement either way would make a tremendous difference, but it’s slated for renewal either way and the overall picture works in its favor, although “Chicago P.D.”‘s early renewal doesn’t mean as much as you might think given its syndication fast-track status.
Scorpion CBS #5 Prob. Renew
Mon 9:00 Season 2 Eps: 29/46 Last: 1.9 Raw: 1.86 Adj.: 1.87 WklIdx: 1.17 RawIdx: 1.10 Index: 1.11 Prod: CBS
“Scorpion” held on to the audience the 90-minute episode pulled in, pulling its index numbers into certain renewal territory, if barely. But while I’m not supposed to factor in the fresh Monday ratings into these posts, I’m not changing its status until I see what effect its tenth-point slip Monday, when “Supergirl” actually fell below “Scorpion”‘s level, has on its index number.
Black-ish ABC #7 Prob. Renew
Wed 9:30 Season 2 Eps: 29/46 Last: N/A Raw: 1.93 Adj.: 1.88 WklIdx: N/A RawIdx: 1.12 Index: 1.08 Prod: ABC
“black-ish”‘s index numbers inflate with a week off, further consolidating its position and inching it closer to the certain-renewal line.
Chicago PD NBC #4 Renewed
Wed 10:00 Season 3 Eps: 44/61 Last: 1.4 Raw: 1.5 Adj.: 1.44 WklIdx: 1.12 RawIdx: 1.10 Index: 1.06 Prod: NBCU
“Chicago P.D.”‘s ratings are in the middle of the pack, normally good for only probable renewal – it regained a tenth with a two-hour episode, but lost it when it returned to normal – but it was slated to finish the season a season short of syndication, which is generally a guarantee of renewal regardless of ratings, so if NBC was going to renew “Blindspot” and “Chicago Fire” they might as well renew “Chicago P.D.” too.
The Blacklist NBC #5 Cert. Renew
Thu 9:00 Season 3 Eps: 50/66 Last: 1.4 Raw: 1.5 Adj.: 1.44 WklIdx: 1.12 RawIdx: 1.10 Index: 1.05 P: Sony/Unv.
“The Blacklist” lost the tenth it gained last week. Unlike similarly-rated syndication fast-track show “Chicago P.D.”, it did not get a renewal on Monday, which doesn’t mean much – in fact, it may have as much to do with Sony’s co-production status as “The Blacklist”‘s slightly lower ratings.
Supernatural CW #3 Prob. Renew
Wed 9:00 Season 11 Eps: 223/241 Last: .6 Raw: .74 Adj.: .68 WklIdx: .93 RawIdx: 1.13 Index: 1.04 Prod: WB
Well, now I don’t know what “normal” is for “Supernatural”, because after bouncing back two tenths from a .6 last week, it gave those two-tenths right back this week despite a stronger performance from “Arrow”. It keeps moving between probable renewal and certain renewal, and while a renewal is a renewal either way, this isn’t quite the consistency you’d prefer. It remains the CW’s highest-rated non-superhero show, but the .6 it pulled is the same number “iZombie” and “The Vampire Diaries” did.
NCIS: New Orleans CBS #6 Prob. Renew
Tue 9:00 Season 2 Eps: 30/49 Last: 1.9 Raw: 1.67 Adj.: 1.75 WklIdx: 1.17 RawIdx: .99 Index: 1.04 Prod: CBS
“NCIS: New Orleans” unexpectedly shot up three-tenths this week to its high for the season.
Rosewood FOX #3 Prob. Renew
Wed 8:00 Season 1 Eps: 6/22? Last: 1.5 Raw: 1.78 Adj.: 1.58 WklIdx: 1.08 RawIdx: 1.12 Index: .99 Prod: Fox
“Rosewood” slips a tenth on its return from baseball hiatus.
Gotham FOX #4 Prob. Renew
Mon 8:00 Season 2 Eps: 29 Last: 1.6 Raw: 1.51 Adj.: 1.53 WklIdx: 1.15 RawIdx: .95 Index: .96 Prod: WB
“Gotham” has made it all the way back to the level it was at in its first two episodes.
Criminal Minds CBS #7 Prob. Renew
Wed 9:00 Season 11 Eps: 239/255 Last: 1.5 Raw: 1.68 Adj.: 1.57 WklIdx: .92 RawIdx: 1.00 Index: .93 P: ABC/CBS
“Criminal Minds” continues a pattern of holding on to a number for a week, then slipping a tenth, then holding on to that number for a week. After two 1.7’s and two 1.6’s going back to the second episode of the season, this week it was time to slip to 1.5.
Once Upon a Time ABC #8 Prob. Renew
Sun 8:00 Season 5 Eps: 95/111 Last: 1.6 Raw: 1.64 Adj.: 1.58 WklIdx: 1.09 RawIdx: .95 Index: .91 Prod: ABC
Without the World Series to contend with, “Once Upon a Time” returned to the 1.6 level it had settled at.
Fresh Off the Boat ABC #9 Prob. Renew
Tue 8:30 Season 2 Eps: 18/35 Last: 1.6 Raw: 1.65 Adj.: 1.58 WklIdx: 1.05 RawIdx: .95 Index: .91 Prod: Fox
“Fresh off the Boat” rallies another tenth, getting back almost to the range it was at its first three weeks when “The Muppets” was a lot stronger.
The Vampire Diaries CW #4 Prob. Renew
Thu 8:00 Season 7 Eps: 138/155 Last: .6 Raw: .58 Adj.: .59 WklIdx: .93 RawIdx: .89 Index: .90 Prod: WB*
No separation between “The Vampire Diaries” and “iZombie” as both shows retain their .6’s from last week.
iZombie CW #4 Prob. Renew
Tue 9:00 Season 2 Eps: 18/26 Last: .6 Raw: .58 Adj.: .59 WklIdx: .93 RawIdx: .89 Index: .90 Prod: WB
In the case of “iZombie” the circumstances are a bit more pressing because as a midseason show last year it only received a half-season order.
Brooklyn Nine-Nine FOX #5 Cert. Renew
Sun 8:30 Season 3 Eps: 50 Last: 1.2 Raw: 1.52 Adj.: 1.44 WklIdx: .87 RawIdx: .95 Index: .90 Prod: NBCU
“Brooklyn Nine-Nine” seems to be doing pretty well in its Sunday time-slot – even this week, without an NFL lead-in, it lost only three-tenths off “The Simpsons”. But Fox isn’t moving it back to its old Tuesday stomping grounds at midseason because it’s disappointed in any way with its performance, but in order to try and salvage anything from the disappointments “Grandfathered” and “The Grinder” have been, by anchoring the night with established shows and not try to launch a third new show, “Cooper Barrett’s Guide to Surviving Life”, on top of that, instead giving “Cooper Barrett” the most powerful half-hour lead-in (and possibly most powerful non-“Empire” lead-in) the network can in “The Simpsons”.
Family Guy FOX #6 Prob. Renew
Sun 9:00 Season 14 Eps: 254 Last: 1.2 Raw: 1.52 Adj.: 1.43 WklIdx: .87 RawIdx: .95 Index: .89 Prod: Fox
If you don’t think longtime Sunday night stalwart “Family Guy” was in serious jeopardy earlier this season with initial NFL-less returns and the outsize effect “Empire” had and has on the Fox network average, consider that Sunday’s 1.2 was the show’s series low… including the ratings that led Fox to initially cancel it so many years ago, even if standards and overall broadcast ratings were higher then. It could yet fall into jeopardy again if its non-NFL numbers are more consistent with how it does after NFL season ends, especially with “Brooklyn Nine-Nine” no longer its direct lead-in.
Mom CBS #8 Cert. Renew
Thu 9:00 Season 3 Eps: 45 Last: 1.5 Raw: 1.5 Adj.: 1.5 WklIdx: .92 RawIdx: .89 Index: .89 Prod: WB
“Mom” starts way down from the 2.0-2.2 range it started in last year. That’s not a problem for a fast-track show like “Mom”, but it could be a problem for “2 Broke Girls”, which will be its lead-out starting next week.
Heroes Reborn NBC #6 Miniseries
Thu 8:00 Season 5 Eps: 6/13 Last: 1.3 Raw: 1.33 Adj.: 1.2 WklIdx: 1.04 RawIdx: .97 Index: .88 Prod: NBCU
“Heroes Reborn” unexpectedly rebounded three-tenths this week, putting up numbers not seen since its first two weeks.
Limitless CBS #9 Prob. Renew
Tue 10:00 Season 1 Eps: 7/22? Last: 1.5 Raw: 1.6 Adj.: 1.48 WklIdx: .92 RawIdx: .95 Index: .88 Prod: CBS
Right as “Limitless” seemed doomed to slip to the bubble, it picks up a tenth this week and stays in positive territory for now.
The Muppets ABC #10 Prob. Renew
Tue 8:00 Season 1 Eps: 6/16 Last: 1.4 Raw: 1.78 Adj.: 1.47 WklIdx: .95 RawIdx: 1.03 Index: .85 Prod: ABC
Technically “The Muppets”‘ adjusted index number is .8498, which is, by the slimmest of margins, enough to slip back to the bubble, but the weekly index number is enough for me to keep it in probable renewal for now (even though ABC’s weekly average was depressed by the lack of the Wednesday shows), especially given how much ABC and Disney have staked on this series and their willingness to give it enough rope to find its identity.
Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. ABC #11 Prob. Renew
Tue 9:00 Season 3 Eps: 49/66 Last: 1.4 Raw: 1.5 Adj.: 1.43 WklIdx: .95 RawIdx: .87 Index: .83 Prod: ABC
“Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.” retains its 1.4 position from last week, making it three out of four weeks at 1.4. That would be good for the high end of the bubble for a non-fast-track show, if not higher than that.
The Mysteries of Laura NBC #8 On Bubble
Wed 8:00 Season 2 Eps: 29/38 Last: 1.2 Raw: 1.11 Adj.: 1.12 WklIdx: .96 RawIdx: .82 Index: .82 Prod: WB
“The Mysteries of Laura” gained two-tenths this week, back to the numbers it was pulling its first two weeks, which seemed to slate it for cancellation when the season began but now put it decidedly on the high end of the bubble. On the other hand, it’s gotten an order for only three additional episodes, which generally means it’s being put in a gap-filler role and could still be shuffled off the schedule at midseason. But it could also be NBC allowing “Laura” time to consolidate its position before it pulls the trigger on a full-season order.
Quantico ABC #12 On Bubble
Sun 10:00 Season 1 Eps: 7/20 Last: 1.3 Raw: 1.57 Adj.: 1.35 WklIdx: .89 RawIdx: .91 Index: .78 Prod: ABC
Well, “Quantico” did manage to rally back some of the losses it sustained opposite the World Series… but only a tenth, low enough that its adjusted average still fell. It better hope it does better at midseason once “Blood and Oil” is shuffled off the schedule, or what was once one of ABC’s biggest success stories will look to be in serious jeopardy.
Grimm NBC #7 Prob. Renew
Fri 9:00 Season 5 Eps: 90/110 Last: 1.0 Raw: 1.05 Adj.: 1.05 WklIdx: .80 RawIdx: .77 Index: .77 Prod: NBCU
My decision to declare “Grimm” on the bubble paid off as it slipped a tenth this week… or would have, if I had remembered that “Grimm” is a Friday show when I wavered on that. In that light, last week’s weekly number was on the border of certain renewal.
Bob’s Burgers FOX #7 Renewed
Sun 7:30 Season 6 Eps: 92/110 Last: 1.4 Raw: 1.13 Adj.: 1.21 WklIdx: 1.01 RawIdx: .70 Index: .76 Prod: Fox
“Bob’s Burgers” unexpectedly shot up a full four-tenths after two weeks off, pulling in higher numbers than any other Fox show on the night that wasn’t “The Simpsons” (and only finishing a tenth behind that), making the decision to renew it for multiple seasons earlier in the year look much smarter, or at least make more sense.
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS #10 On Bubble
Mon 10:00 Season 7 Eps: 150/168 Last: 1.3 Raw: 1.22 Adj.: 1.26 WklIdx: .80 RawIdx: .72 Index: .75 Prod: CBS
After a week off, “NCIS: Los Angeles” retained the 1.3 it had two weeks ago – with the caveat that ABC pre-empted “Castle”. It initially looked like “Blindspot” had absolutely devastated “NCIS: LA”‘s numbers, but it now has a fairly decent shot at renewal with or without CBS’ idiosyncrasies when it comes to veteran shows. But CBS may cast a more critical eye on veteran shows this time around, for reasons described below.
Madam Secretary CBS #11 On Bubble
Sun ≥8p Season 2 Eps: 28/44 Last: 1.3 Raw: 1.3 Adj.: 1.25 WklIdx: .80 RawIdx: .77 Index: .74 Prod: CBS
Without the World Series to contend with and with the NFL as indirect lead-in, “Madam Secretary” regained the two-tenths it lost last week, giving it a bit more breathing room vis-a-vis the bottom of the bubble.
Bones FOX #8 On Bubble
Thu 8:00 Season 11 Eps: 218 Last: 1.1 Raw: 1.23 Adj.: 1.18 WklIdx: .79 RawIdx: .77 Index: .74 Prod: Fox
From what I see of Fox’s winter schedule, it looks like “Bones” is only running a half-season, and given its mediocre ratings that’s not terribly surprising, as it falls two-tenths with its “Sleepy Hollow” crossover over. You really do have to imagine it doesn’t have much life left in it.
Blue Bloods CBS #12 Prob. Renew
Fri 10:00 Season 6 Eps: 117/133 Last: 1.3 Raw: 1.24 Adj.: 1.23 WklIdx: .80 RawIdx: .74 Index: .73 Prod: CBS
“Blue Bloods” rallies up two tenths to return to the level it was at in its first three episodes, and pole position relative to the ABC comedies among the Friday shows, if not relative to “Grimm”.
The Last Man on Earth FOX #9 On Bubble
Sun 9:30 Season 2 Eps: 17 Last: 1.0 Raw: 1.27 Adj.: 1.17 WklIdx: .72 RawIdx: .79 Index: .73 Prod: Fox
“The Last Man on Earth” looked better when it took a week off for the World Series and most of the shows Fox did air were lower-rated, but with shows like “Empire” back on the schedule and “Last Man” coming back with a non-NFL-inflated episode, it falls right back to the low end of the bubble. Judging from Fox’s midseason schedule, it looks to be in for a half-season and that’s it.
Last Man Standing ABC #13 Prob. Renew
Fri 8:00 Season 5 Eps: 91 Last: 1.2 Raw: 1.23 Adj.: 1.23 WklIdx: .82 RawIdx: .71 Index: .71 Prod: Fox
“Last Man Standing” lost the tenth it gained last week, which combined with the “Blue Bloods” rally led it to relinquish non-“Grimm” Friday pole position.
Dr. Ken ABC #14 Prob. Renew
Fri 8:30 Season 1 Eps: 6/22? Last: 1.2 Raw: 1.28 Adj.: 1.22 WklIdx: .82 RawIdx: .74 Index: .70 Prod: Sony*
“Dr. Ken” has its third straight 1.2 while “Last Man Standing” retreats a tenth to pull even with it.
Code Black CBS #13 Prob. Cancel
Wed 10:00 Season 1 Eps: 6/13? Last: 1.2 Raw: 1.23 Adj.: 1.18 WklIdx: .74 RawIdx: .73 Index: .70 P: ABC/CBS
“Code Black” regained the tenth it lost once it no longer had to contend with the World Series, pulling its index number barely back onto the bubble. But with most shows that didn’t get delayed starts already with either full-season orders or order cuts, and “Code Black” having been delayed only a week, it’s worth it to look at the bigger picture, where you realize that “Code Black” is CBS’ lowest-rated new show and its second-lowest-rated scripted show period outside Friday and Sunday now that “Elementary” has premiered. CBS doesn’t have any true flops in its fall freshman class (unless you count second-season inexplicable-full-season-order “CSI: Cyber”) and needs to make room for a number of midseason shows, including a couple of returners. That means a show like “Code Black” with numbers that aren’t great but that might otherwise justify at least a full-season order could end up getting squeezed out.
Scream Queens FOX #10 Prob. Cancel
Tue 9:00 Season 1 Eps: 6/15 Last: 1.0 Raw: 1.22 Adj.: 1.05 WklIdx: .72 RawIdx: .76 Index: .65 Prod: Fox
After starting low (compared to Fox’s hype) and falling lower, “Scream Queens” has stabilized at 1.0 each of the past three weeks, but that won’t be enough to escape cancellation.
Grandfathered FOX #11 Prob. Cancel
Tue 8:00 Season 1 Eps: 5/22? Last: 1.0 Raw: 1.14 Adj.: 1.04 WklIdx: .72 RawIdx: .71 Index: .65 Prod: ABC*
At some point, Fox’s plan for midseason after “Scream Queens” finished its limited run was for “Grandfathered” and “The Grinder” to remain at 8 and 8:30 leading in to “New Girl” and “Cooper Barrett’s Guide to Surviving Life”. That was before “Scream Queens” massively underperformed and “Grandfathered” and “The Grinder” pulled in cancellation-worthy numbers. Fox gave both shows full-season orders anyway, but clearly a change of plans was called for, because “Cooper Barrett” will now bow on Sunday with “The Simpsons” as a lead-in, and Tuesdays will be anchored by veterans “New Girl” and “Brooklyn Nine-Nine” (okay, so “Nine-Nine” is technically still a fast-track show) interspersed with “Grandfathered” and “The Grinder”, in what appears to be a last-ditch effort to save both shows and make something of their full-season order without having to anchor a night by themselves.
Elementary CBS #14 Prob. Cancel
Thu 10:00 Season 4 Eps: 72/96 Last: 1.1 Raw: 1.1 Adj.: 1.1 WklIdx: .68 RawIdx: .65 Index: .65 Prod: CBS
Other than “CSI: Cyber”, “Elementary” might be the single CBS show in the most danger of cancellation, given the success of CBS’ freshman slate and the network’s reticence to outright cancel veteran shows. Though “Elementary” is technically a veteran by my standards, it won a fourth season on the back of its syndication fast-track status last year and CBS doesn’t quite owe it as much as it does its older veterans. So it definitely couldn’t head out the gate with a 1.1 to match last year’s penultimate episode, which I had said would land it in cancellation danger. Here’s hoping it improves with an actual lead-in this week.
Hawaii Five-O CBS #15 On Bubble
Fri 9:00 Season 6 Eps: 125/143 Last: 1.1 Raw: 1.07 Adj.: 1.09 WklIdx: .68 RawIdx: .64 Index: .64 Prod: CBS
“Hawaii Five-O” has pulled 1.1s in all but two weeks of the season, which at the moment is good enough for the high end of the bubble for a Friday show.
Nashville ABC #15 Prob. Canned
Wed 10:00 Season 4 Eps: 70 Last: N/A Raw: 1.1 Adj.: 1.10 WklIdx: N/A RawIdx: .64 Index: .63 Prod: ABC
Being pre-empted for the CMA Awards makes “Nashville”‘s numbers look better (perhaps fittingly), but it’s still got a ways to climb to get back to the bubble.
The Good Wife CBS #16 Prob. Cancel
Sun ≥9p Season 7 Eps: 140/156 Last: 1.1 Raw: 1.1 Adj.: 1.06 WklIdx: .68 RawIdx: .65 Index: .63 Prod: CBS
“The Good Wife” gained back the two-tenths it lost against the World Series, but it still remains in serious jeopardy. The general success CBS has had with its rookies means even after “CSI: Cyber” gets the axe it’ll likely need to scrutinize its veteran shows to make room on next year’s schedule for more rookies, and “The Good Wife”, never the highest-rated show anyway, would seem to be on the top of the list of shows to cut. Is this its last season? Realistically, probably not despite the status I give it, but next season very easily could be.
The Originals CW #6 Prob. Renew
Thu 9:00 Season 3 Eps: 49 Last: .4 Raw: .42 Adj.: .41 WklIdx: .62 RawIdx: .64 Index: .62 Prod: WB*
Another week, another .4 for “The Originals”.
Sleepy Hollow FOX #12 In Limbo
Thu 9:00 Season 3 Eps: 37/49 Last: .9 Raw: .93 Adj.: .94 WklIdx: .65 RawIdx: .58 Index: .59 Prod: Fox
Well, Fox finally did something about “Sleepy Hollow”‘s collapse in the ratings since moving to Thursday… but it wasn’t to move it back to Monday. In case you weren’t sure whether Fox would let its own scheduling incompetency kill what was once one of its standout shows, “Sleepy Hollow” will move to Friday starting in February when it airs its remaining episodes. If “Sleepy Hollow” pulls in the same numbers it’s doing now, that’ll be enough for the mid-to-high end of the bubble on Friday, but that’s a very big if, and it’s an open question how much rope Fox will give it if that’s the case. Regardless, I’m going to treat this as a “reset” and start “Sleepy Hollow”‘s numbers from zero when it returns, though its Thursday numbers will continue contributing to Fox’s network average.
Jane the Virgin CW #7 Prob. Cancel
Mon 9:00 Season 2 Eps: 26/44 Last: .4 Raw: .38 Adj.: .38 WklIdx: .62 RawIdx: .57 Index: .57 Prod: CBS*
“Jane the Virgin” bounces back a tenth, consolidating its position as the CW’s highest-rated CBS-produced show, but how much will Warner Bros let that mean?
The Grinder FOX #13 Prob. Cancel
Tue 8:30 Season 1 Eps: 5/22 Last: .8 Raw: 1.02 Adj.: .89 WklIdx: .58 RawIdx: .64 Index: .56 Prod: Fox
I laid out how the struggles of “Grandfathered” and “The Grinder” led to Fox’s Tuesday schedule changes in the former’s section, but “The Grinder” really needs it. In its first episode back after being pre-empted for the World Series, it fell a tenth, putting its index numbers in territory where I start thinking about declaring it a dead show walking. Will a move to 9:30 and getting “Brooklyn Nine-Nine” as a lead-in be enough to stave off the axe’s fall?
Castle ABC #16 Prob. Canned
Mon 10:00 Season 8 Eps: 157/173 Last: N/A Raw: 1.1 Adj.: .96 WklIdx: N/A RawIdx: .64 Index: .56 Prod: ABC
How far in advance was ABC planning to pre-empt this past week’s “Castle” for a CMA Awards special?
The Player NBC #9 Cancelled
Thu 10:00 Season 1 Eps: 7/9 Last: .7 Raw: .86 Adj.: .73 WklIdx: .56 RawIdx: .63 Index: .54 Prod: Sony
Just two more weeks before “The Player” is off the NBC schedule.
Undateable NBC #10 On Bubble
Fri 8:00 Season 3 Eps: 27 Last: .7 Raw: .76 Adj.: .72 WklIdx: .56 RawIdx: .56 Index: .53 Prod: WB
“Undateable” continues to hold on to its audience, but it’s far from good enough to feel confident about renewal even on Friday.
Blood and Oil ABC #17 Cancelled
Sun 9:00 Season 1 Eps: 7/10 Last: .8 Raw: 1.0 Adj.: .84 WklIdx: .55 RawIdx: .58 Index: .48 Prod: ABC
“Blood and Oil” slipped a tenth against tough competition last week and didn’t regain it this week. Three more weeks to go.
Truth Be Told NBC #11 Cancelled
Fri 8:30 Season 1 Eps: 4/10 Last: .6 Raw: .65 Adj.: .64 WklIdx: .48 RawIdx: .48 Index: .47 Prod: NBCU
“Truth be Told” lost the tenth it gained last week after being hit with an effective cancellation notice.
Wicked City ABC #18 Dead Walking
Tue 10:00 Season 1 Eps: 2/10 Last: .7 Raw: .8 Adj.: .8 WklIdx: .48 RawIdx: .46 Index: .46 Prod: ABC
Welp, “Wicked City” slipped two-tenths from already cancellation-worthy numbers, putting it in worse position than Sunday flop “Blood and Oil” and pretty much sealing its fate. Don’t be surprised if it doesn’t even get the ten episodes ABC already ordered.
CSI: Cyber CBS #17 Dead Walking
Sun ≥10p Season 2 Eps: 20/35 Last: .8 Raw: .8 Adj.: .78 WklIdx: .49 RawIdx: .47 Index: .46 Prod: CBS
More and more, CBS’ decision to give “CSI: Cyber” a full second season, after a half-season of iffy-at-best ratings and at the same time it cancelled original-flavor “CSI”, is looking like one of the dumbest decisions a network has made in recent memory. It’s not just that CBS is now stuck with this show’s low ratings for another fifteen weeks; it’s the fact that CBS’ rookie slate has done so well that “Code Black” might not even get a back nine. That will make putting together a midseason schedule, without being able to leave “CSI: Cyber” off it, a very serious challenge. Don’t be surprised if CBS finds a way to cut “Cyber”‘s episode order to make room on the schedule for all its midseason shows.
Crazy Ex-Girlfriend CW #8 Dead Walking
Mon 8:00 Season 1 Eps: 4/13? Last: .3 Raw: .28 Adj.: .28 WklIdx: .47 RawIdx: .42 Index: .42 Prod: CBS
“Crazy Ex-Girlfriend” regained the tenth it lost last week, but it’s still just a matter of letting time run out on it.
Reign CW #8 Prob. Renew
Fri 8:00 Season 3 Eps: 48/62 Last: .3 Raw: .28 Adj.: .28 WklIdx: .47 RawIdx: .42 Index: .42 Prod: CBS*
“Reign” also regained a tenth after a week off.
Minority Report FOX #14 Cancelled
Mon 9:00 Season 1 Eps: 7/10 Last: .6 Raw: .74 Adj.: .62 WklIdx: .43 RawIdx: .46 Index: .39 Prod: Fox
Well, at least you can say “Minority Report” seems to have found its level with three straight weeks of .6’s. Too bad it’s not on the CW. Three more weeks to go.
2 Broke Girls CBS #? Prem: 11/12
Thu 9:30 Season 5 Eps: 94 Last: N/A Raw: N/A Adj.: N/A WklIdx: N/A RawIdx: N/A Index: N/A Prod: CBS
Last year “2 Broke Girls” had no real problems scoring a renewal. But it also posted worse numbers than “Mom”, which lost half a point off the numbers it was doing at the end of last year when it bowed on Thursday. The last four episodes of the season pulled numbers of 1.6, 1.7, and 1.6 before the finale scored a 2.0. If it returns to the 1.6-1.7 range it’ll be in pretty good shape, but if it loses half a point like “Mom” did that’ll land it on the bubble at best, at a time when CBS might be inclined to subject its veteran shows to more scrutiny, and on a network that has long tended to cancel its lowest rated sitcom no matter what.

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