Note: This post does not incorporate the result of the Thursday night game.
Since it started in its current format as the NFL’s main primetime package in 2006, the defining feature of NBC’s Sunday Night Football has been the use of flexible scheduling to ensure the best matchups and showcase the best teams as the season goes along. Well, that’s the theory, anyway; the reality has not always lived up to the initial hype and has at times seemed downright mystifying. Regardless, I’m here to help you figure out what you can and can’t expect to see on Sunday nights on NBC.
A full explanation of all the factors that go into flexible scheduling decisions can be found on my NFL Flexible Scheduling Primer, but here’s the Cliffs Notes version with all the important points you need to know:
- The season can be broken down into three different periods (four if you count the first four weeks where flexible scheduling does not apply at all) for flexible scheduling purposes, each with similar yet different rules governing them: the early flex period, from weeks 5 to 10; the main flex period, from weeks 11 to 17; and week 18. In years where Christmas forces either the Sunday afternoon slate or the Sunday night game to Saturday in Week 16, flex scheduling does not apply that week, and the main flex period begins week 10. Note: This year NBC’s press release indicated that the main flex period begins in Week 11 even though Christmas falls on Sunday. I’m assuming this is correct and the result of NBC still being able to have six weeks in the main flex period despite this because of the expansion of the season.
- In all cases, only games scheduled for Sunday may be moved to Sunday night. Thursday and Monday night games are not affected by Sunday night flexible scheduling (discounting the “flexible scheduling” applied to Saturdays in December in recent years – see below).
- During the early and main flex periods, one game is “tentatively” scheduled for Sunday night and listed with the Sunday night start time of 8:20 PM ET. This game will usually remain at that start time and air on NBC, but may be flexed out for another game and moved to 1, 4:05, or 4:25 PM ET on Fox or CBS, no less than 12 days in advance of the game.
- No more than two games can be flexed to Sunday night over the course of the early flex period. If the NFL wishes to flex out a game in the early flex period twelve days in advance, CBS and Fox may elect to protect one game each from being moved to Sunday night. This is generally an emergency valve in situations where the value of the tentative game has plummeted since the schedule was announced, namely in cases of injury to a key star player.
- CBS and Fox may also each protect games, historically in five out of six weeks of the main flex period, but all of those protections must be submitted after week 5, week 4 in years where the main flex period begins week 10 (so it is always six weeks before the start of the main flex period).
- No team may appear more than six times across the league’s three primetime packages on NBC, ESPN, and Fox/NFL Network, and only three teams are allowed to appear that often, with everyone else getting five. In addition, no team may appear more than four times on NBC. All teams’ number of appearances heading into this season may be seen here.
- According to the league’s official page, teams are notified when “they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.” However, they rarely make this known to the fans, and the list of each network’s protections has never officially been made public. It used to leak fairly regularly, but has not leaked since 2014.
- In all cases, the NFL is the ultimate arbiter of the schedule and consults with CBS, Fox, and NBC before moving any games to prime time. If the NFL does elect to flex out the Sunday night game, the network whose game is flexed in may receive the former tentative game, regardless of which network would “normally” air it under the “CBS=AFC, Fox=NFC” rules, keeping each network’s total number of games constant. At the same time, the NFL may also move games between 1 PM ET and 4:05/4:25 PM ET. However, this feature focuses primarily if not entirely on Sunday night flexible scheduling.
- In Week 18, the entire schedule is set on only six days notice, ensuring that NBC gets a game with playoff implications, generally a game where the winner is the division champion. More rarely, NBC may also show an intra-division game for a wild card spot, or a game where only one team wins the division with a win but doesn’t win the division with a loss, but such situations are rare and 2018 and 2020, respectively, were the first times it showed such games. If no game is guaranteed to have maximum playoff implications before Sunday night in this fashion, the league has been known not to schedule a Sunday night game at all. To ensure maximum flexibility, no protections or appearance limits apply to Week 17. The NFL also arranges the rest of the schedule such that no team playing at 4:25 PM ET (there are no 4:05 games Week 17) could have their playoff fate decided by the outcome of the 1 PM ET games, which usually means most if not all of the games with playoff implications outside Sunday night are played at 4:25 PM ET, except for two games moved to Saturday to be simulcast on ESPN and ABC.
Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:
Week 11 (November 20):
- Tentative game: Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh
- Prospects: 4-3 v. 2-5. The Bengals are starting to look more like the team that went to the Super Bowl last year, but that might just make this game lopsided.
- Likely protections: Chiefs-Chargers or Cowboys-Vikings (CBS) and Bears-Falcons, Rams-Saints, or nothing (FOX).
- Other possible games: Either of CBS’ potentially protected games would be very strong; Chiefs-Chargers pits the top two teams in the AFC West after the barnburner they put on to start Amazon’s TNF slate, while Cowboys-Vikings is 5-2 v. 5-1 (and probably more likely to be protected, because Cowboys). Eagles-Colts is the next-best game on the slate, followed by Jets-Patriots, while Bears-Falcons is a viable dark horse only because of the poor records in the NFC South.
Week 12 (November 27):
- Tentative game: Green Bay @ Philadelphia
- Prospects: 3-4 v. 6-0, a bit lopsided but still pitting Aaron Rodgers against the league’s last unbeaten team.
- Likely protections: Ravens-Jaguars, Bengals-Titans, Chargers-Cardinals, or nothing (CBS) and Rams-Chiefs, Saints-49ers, or nothing (FOX).
- Other possible games: Thanksgiving weekend, paucity of good games, though Bengals-Titans would be a strong flex candidate most weeks on records alone if not name value, and Rams-Chiefs also involves a team leading their division against a team at .500. Bears-Jets, Falcons-Warnocks, Chargers-Cardinals, and Raiders-Seahawks are dark horses.
Week 13 (December 4):
- Tentative game: Indianapolis @ Dallas
- Prospects: 3-3-1 v. 5-2. Getting lopsided, but the Colts are only a half-game out of the wild card and a full game out of the division lead, and a good Cowboys team is almost certainly not being flexed out.
- Likely protections: Jets-Vikings, Chiefs-Bengals, or nothing (CBS) and Titans-Eagles or Dolphins-49ers (FOX).
- Other possible games: Jets-Vikings, Titans-Eagles, and Chiefs-Bengals all pit two teams above .500, with Seahawks-Rams involving a team at that mark. Packers-Bears, Genericnames-Giants, Dolphins-49ers, and Chargers-Raiders are dark horses.
Week 14 (December 11):
- Tentative game: Kansas City @ Denver
- Prospects: 5-2 v. 2-5. The Broncos are not living up to the hype of Russell Wilson’s arrival, and this game is getting concerningly lopsided.
- Likely protections: Jets-Bills or Dolphins-Chargers (CBS) and Bucs-49ers or Eagles-Giants (FOX).
- Other possible games: Eagles-Giants and Jets-Bills would be surefire picks to be flexed in at the moment if they’re left unprotected, while Dolphins-Chargers is also a viable option. Bucs-49ers is the only other viable dark horse at the moment.
Week 15 (December 18):
- Tentative game: New England @ Las Vegas
- Prospects: 3-4 v. 2-4, not exactly what NBC was hoping for but reasonably resilient to a potential flex given the name value of the teams and this being the week with a flexed-in Saturday slate.
- Likely protections: Probably Titans-Chargers (CBS) and Cowboys-Jaguars, Eagles-Bears, or nothing (FOX).
- Other possible games: As usual, assuming the games set aside for a potential move to Saturday can’t be protected; Dolphins-Bills and Colts-Vikings are the clear favorites on the slate right now, with Giants-Riveras suddenly becoming the next-most viable game. Unfortunately Titans-Chargers is the only other game on the Sunday slate pitting two teams above .500, with Bengals-Bucs and Eagles-Bears as the most viable dark horses, likely leaving NBC stuck.
Week 17 (January 1):
- Tentative game: LA Rams @ LA Chargers
- Prospects: 3-3 v. 4-3. Decidedly mediocre, but still good enough to keep its spot as long as there isn’t some game that absolutely demands to be flexed in.
- Likely protections: Vikings-Packers (CBS) and Saints-Eagles, Jets-Seahawks, or nothing (FOX).
- Other possible games: Jets-Seahawks is the only game on the Sunday slate pitting two teams above .500, and at 5-2 v. 4-3 it probably isn’t quite good enough to beat the tentative game bias if it’s unprotected, while Colts-Giants involves a team at .500 but in a more lopsided game. Cardinals-Falcons and Dolphins-Patriots are dark horses.
Week 18 (January 8):
- Playoff positioning watch begins Week 9.
Updated repost from earlier threads:
NO CHANGES through Week 10:
Week 11: Bengals-Steelers could be flexed out as the Steelers could be 2-6 by the time this decision has to be made (Steelers have their bye in Week 9). We could see Chargers-Chiefs moved to SNF because CBS already has Cowboys-Vikings in the 4:25 PM ET slot and that is likely the game CBS protects that week. Normally, Jets-Pats would be possible but the Pats play on Thanksgiving night and the following Thursday (and after Monday night a lot less attractive, especially if the Jets win this round on Sunday in The Meadowlands).
Week 12: Even if the Pack falters, this is unlikely to be changed because there are no other suitable games to do it with.
Week 13: Not likely to change because the Colts as bad as they are likely to be in contention for the AFC South (where the winner could be 8-9 or worse) and again, no suitable replacement.
Week 14: Broncos have been a massive disappointment and I could see if the Giants continue to play like they are AND it’s not protected by FOX Eagles-Giants moved to SNF. Otherwise, Dolphins-Chargers, currently in 4:05 purgatory could be moved to SNF and even if CBS has to move another game to 4:05 to replace it there.
Week 15: Too early to tell. Pats-Raiders on shaky ground, however, and I could see Titans-Chargers be moved to SNF.
Week 16 doesn’t have a flex. This is where the NFL should have had the bulk of the games on Monday, December 26 (day after Christmas that is the actual legal holiday for such) though as noted I suspect the station managers of FOX affiliates objected to that due to their having numerous pre-emptions during the World Cup in November and December and the syndicators of shows that normally air on FOX stations in the daytime probably made clear they could not pre-empt for NFL games on 12/26 since the week of 12/26-30 likely is re-airs of shows that first aired during the World Cup pre-empted by FOX affiliates. Otherwise, it would have set up for ESPN/ABC to have a flex that Monday night. If the Christmas Eve slate had been played the day after Christmas instead, Chargers-Colts would likely still be the Monday night game though Falcons-Ravens would have been a candidate to move to MNF in that scenario.
Week 17: Rams-Chargers likely stays there almost no matter what because logistics and it being New Year’s Day likely make it next-to-impossible to do a flex. If it did get moved, Jets-Seahawks right now looks like a prime candidate since that is unlikely to be protected (and it’s in 4:05 purgatory).
Week 18: If Giants-Eagles is for the NFC East, THAT is the Sunday Night finale unless Cowboys-Commanders also matters. If both games matter towards the playoffs, I can see them being the two Saturday games on ESPN/ABC (or more likely, Cowboys-Commanders on Saturday since DAL-WAS still has value even if the game is meaningless). Otherwise, STILL too early to tell.
Repost from Prior Thread:
Hello NFL SNF Flex Scheduling lovers,
Here’s my take on things after Week 7.
Week 9 – scheduled game is: Tenn.(4-2) @ K.C.(5-2)
#1 – Tenn.(4-2) @ K.C.(5-2)
#2 – Buff.(5-1) @ N.Y.J.(5-2)
The tentative looks to be going nowhere else on the NFL schedule (as it’s a battle of 2 Division leaders), though Bills/Jets is an intriguing game and might be moved to a late slot.
Week 10 – scheduled game is: L.A.C.(4-3) @ S.F.(3-4)
#1 – Minn.(5-1) @ Buff.(5-1)
The tentative is very likely to keep its place at this point, but wow, what a fun matchup of Vikings/Bills that should at least move to the late slot of games and I’d really love to see if move to SNF. The Bills might be maxed though, as they were picked for a ton of National games before the season even started.
Main Flex period:
Week 11 – scheduled game is: Cin.(4-3) @ Pitt.(2-5) <—looks more shaky after the Steelers lost yesterday, on SNF, to the Dolphins.
#1 – Dal.(5-2) @ Minn.(5-1)
#2 – K.C.(5-2) @ L.A.C.(4-3)
#3 – Phil.(6-0) @ Ind.(3-3-1)
I think we'll probably end up stuck with the tentative at this point. Cowboys/Vikings is likely protected, Chiefs/Chargers were in Primetime in Week 2 in TNF. Eagles/Colts looks lopsided.
Week 12 – scheduled game is: G.B.(3-4) @ Phil.(6-0) <—100% this stays, but starting to look pretty damned lopsided due to my Packers ? ?
Week 13 – scheduled game is: Ind.(3-3-1) @ Dal.(5-2) <—very likely to stay, unless the Colts die with their rookie QB taking over the reins
Week 14 – scheduled game is: K.C.(5-2) @ Den.(2-5) <—this matchup was in Primetime both times last year and is looking very shaky now, which means I really hope that it loses its spot
Week 15 – scheduled game is: N.E.(3-4) @ L.V.(2-4) <—will both teams be so bad and ruin the Belichick/McDaniels matchup?
Also, 3 of 5 games will move to Saturday and they are:
Mia.(4-3) @ Buff.(5-1) <—looking pretty strong, especially with Tua coming back and if he stays healthy
Balt.(4-3) @ Clev.(2-5) <—not too likely now
Ind.(3-3-1) @ Minn.(5-1) <—looks good, but meh!
Atl.(3-4) @ N.O.(2-5) <—not likely at all
N.Y.G.(6-1) @ Wash.(3-4) <—because it's big market teams, it's looking okay at the moment, though it's a pretty lopsided matchup
Week 16 – scheduled game is: T.B.(3-4) @ Ariz.(3-4) <— can't be flexed, as it's set in stone due to being on Christmas
Week 17 – scheduled game is: L.A.R.(3-3) @ L.AC.(4-3) <— very likely to stay
Week 18 – no scheduled SNF game and 2 games moving to Saturday
N.E.(3-4) @ Buff.(5-1) <—can't move to Saturday
N.Y.J.(5-2) @ Mia.(4-3) <—might be affected by Bills not being able to play on Saturday and could preclude them from doing so as well. If not precluded from moving to Saturday, it has a good chance or possibly SNF.
Balt.(4-3) @ Cin.(4-3) <—can't move to Saturday
Clev.(2-5) @ Pitt.(2-5) <—not looking like a move to Saturday would be in the cards anyway
Hou.(1-4-1) @ Ind.(3-3-1) <—not a good Saturday game candidate
Tenn.(4-2) @ Jack.(2-5) <—not a good Saturday game candidate
L.A.C.(4-3) @ Den.(2-5) <—not a good Saturday game candidate
K.C.(5-2) @ L.V.(2-4) <—not a good Saturday game candidate
N.Y.G.(6-1) @ Phil.(6-0) <—looking to be the frontrunner for Game 272 on SNF in Week 18
Dal.(5-2) @ Wash.(3-4) <—not a good Saturday game candidate
Minn.(5-1) @ Chi.(3-4) <—not a good Saturday game candidate
Det.(1-5) @ G.B.(3-4) <—not a good Saturday game candidate
T.B.(3-4) @ Atl.(3-4) <—could be a dark horse for SNF, as it could become a win and in, lose and out game, but I doubt it.
Car.(2-5) @ N.O.(2-5) <—not a good Saturday game candidate
Ariz.(3-4) @ S.F.(3-4) <—could be a good candidate to move to Saturday, but so early still
L.A.R.(3-3) @ Sea.(4-3) <—could be a good candidate to move to Saturday, but so early still
Remember, due to Buffalo and Cincinnati playing on MNF in Week 17, they will not be able to play on Saturday in Week 18 and that also leads to the potential of no matchup from the AFC East and AFC North moving to Saturday.
Go Pack Go in Buffalo this week to play the Bills this week on SNF. Make or break week here, potentially.
Here’s the schedule map for today:
https://506sports.com/
If I had to guess with the 49ers getting Christian McCaffrey and coming off there bye week at 4-4 where they will get some key players back from injuries I think the 49ers will be a a fun team to watch, as for the Chargers yes they are currently 4-3 but they have so many key injuries. Vikings at Bills should be the SNF game unless NBC wants to save for the Buffalo Bills later in the season. 6-1 vs 6-1 Fox will do everything in it’s power to protect Cowboys at Packers at 325 on Fox with 2 big brand names despite GB struggling right now. I think Chargers at 49ers stays on SNF if I had to guess for week 10.
Sorry I made a grammar error: If I had to guess with the 49ers trading for Christian McCaffrey recently and coming off there bye week at 4-4 where they will get some key players back from injuries I think the 49ers will be a a fun team to watch. As for the Chargers yes they are currently 4-3 but they have so many key injuries. Vikings at Bills both teams right now are 6-1 should be the SNF game unless NBC wants to save for the Buffalo Bills later in the season. Fox will do everything in it’s power to protect Cowboys at Packers at 325 on Fox with 2 big brand names despite GB struggling right now. I think Chargers at 49ers stays on SNF if I had to guess for week 10.
Hello NFL SNF Flex Scheduling lovers,
Here’s my take on things after Week 8.
Week 10 – scheduled game is: L.A.C.(4-3) @ S.F.(4-4)
#1 – Minn.(6-1) @ Buff.(6-1)
#2 – L.A.C.(4-3) @ S.F.(4-4)
The tentative is very likely to keep its place at this point with both being at .500 or better, but wow, what a fun matchup of Vikings/Bills that should at least move to the late slot of games and I’d really love to see it move to SNF. The Bills might be maxed though, as they were picked for a ton of National games before the season even started.
Main Flex period:
Week 11 – scheduled game is: Cin.(4-4) @ Pitt.(2-6) <—looks shaky, but lets check on the alternatives.
#1 – Dal.(6-2) @ Minn.(6-1)
#2 – K.C.(5-2) @ L.A.C.(4-3)
#3 – N.Y.J.(5-3) @ N.E.(4-4)
I think we'll probably end up stuck with the tentative at this point, but hopefully I am wrong. Cowboys/Vikings is likely protected, Chiefs/Chargers were in Primetime in Week 2 in TNF. Jets/Patriots doesn't quite have the pizazz yet.
Week 12 – scheduled game is: G.B.(3-5) @ Phil.(7-0) <—this very likely stays, but starting to look pretty damned lopsided due to my Packers ? ? and the 2 alternatives below have nowhere near the name value of this and you won't kick a potential undefeated team off of SNF.
# 1 – Cin.(4-4) @ Tenn.(5-2)
# 2 – Atl.(4-4) @ Wash.(4-4)
Week 13 – scheduled game is: Ind.(3-4-1) @ Dal.(6-2) <—very likely to stay, unless the Colts die with their rookie QB taking over the reins
Week 14 – scheduled game is: K.C.(5-2) @ Den.(3-5) <—this matchup was in Primetime both times last year and is looking very shaky now, which means I really hope that it loses its spot. With the Broncos winning in London against the Jags this past Sunday, the chances of this staying were greatly increased.
Week 15 – scheduled game is: N.E.(4-4) @ L.V.(2-5) <—will the Raiders be so bad and ruin the Belichick/McDaniels matchup?
Also, 3 of 5 games will move to Saturday and they are:
Mia.(5-3) @ Buff.(6-1) <—looking near certain to move to Saturday
Balt.(5-3) @ Clev.(3-5) <—not likely, for now
Ind.(3-4-1) @ Minn.(6-1) <—looks good to move, but meh!
Atl.(4-4) @ N.O.(3-5) <—not likely, in spite of how tight the NFC South is
N.Y.G.(6-2) @ Wash.(4-4) <—because it's big market teams, it's looking okay at the moment, though it's a pretty lopsided matchup
Week 16 – scheduled game is: T.B.(3-5) @ Ariz.(3-5) <— can't be flexed, as it's set in stone due to being on Christmas, but yuck!
Week 17 – scheduled game is: L.A.R.(3-4) @ L.AC.(4-3) <— very likely to stay
Week 18 – no scheduled SNF game and 2 games moving to Saturday
N.E.(4-4) @ Buff.(6-1) <—can't move to Saturday
N.Y.J.(5-3) @ Mia.(5-3) <—might be affected by Bills not being able to play on Saturday and could preclude them from doing so as well. If not precluded from moving to Saturday, it has a good chance or possibly SNF.
Balt.(5-3) @ Cin.(4-4) <—can't move to Saturday
Clev.(3-5) @ Pitt.(2-6) <—not looking like a move to Saturday would be in the cards anyway
Hou.(1-5-1) @ Ind.(3-4-1) <—not a good Saturday game candidate
Tenn.(5-2) @ Jack.(2-6) <—not a good Saturday game candidate
L.A.C.(4-3) @ Den.(3-5) <—not a good Saturday game candidate, for now
K.C.(5-2) @ L.V.(2-5) <—not a good Saturday game candidate
N.Y.G.(6-2) @ Phil.(7-0) <—looking to be the frontrunner for Game 272 on SNF in Week 18
Dal.(6-2) @ Wash.(4-4) <—starting to gain on potentially moving to Saturday
Minn.(6-1) @ Chi.(3-5) <—not a good Saturday game candidate
Det.(1-6) @ G.B.(3-5) <—not a good Saturday game candidate
T.B.(3-5) @ Atl.(4-4) <—could be a dark horse for SNF, as it could become a win and in, lose and out game, but I doubt it or maybe I'm starting not to doubt it
Car.(2-6) @ N.O.(3-5) <—not a good Saturday game candidate
Ariz.(3-5) @ S.F.(4-4) <—could be a good candidate to move to Saturday, but so early still. Hell, this game is so weird.
L.A.R.(3-4) @ Sea.(5-3) <—could be a good candidate to move to Saturday, but so early still. Hell, this game is also so weird.
Remember, due to Buffalo and Cincinnati playing on MNF in Week 17, they will not be able to play on Saturday in Week 18 and that also leads to the potential of no matchup from the AFC East and AFC North moving to Saturday.
Go Pack Go in Detroit this week to play the Lions. Better be careful with this team.
Doesn’t matter that Chiefs chargers was already on prime time for their first matchup . they could do it again just like they did with Chiefs broncos twice last year. That’s a virtual lock to replace the unwatchable Steelers in week 11.