I ended up putting out the Week 11 Flex Schedule Watch post about halfway through Sunday’s early games, so if you haven’t read it, do. I have a lot of thoughts about Mike North’s comments on various platforms over the weekend, including his insistence that flex scheduling is there to ensure games with playoff implications in every window, seemingly to the point that one of the worst teams in the NFL would keep its spot if the team they’re playing is in the thick of the playoff hunt. What we’ll be paying attention to over the last month-plus of the season is how much that actually reflects the league’s approach. In the meantime, this post covers both the Monday night flex scheduling situation for Week 14 and the Thursday night flex scheduling situation for Week 17.
Week 14: North also indicated that he and his team had been strongly considering flexing out Packers-Giants for Texans-Jets, which surprised me as I figured the Packers and Giants had enough name value, and the Texans were lacking enough in it, that it would take some pretty overwhelming circumstances to pull the trigger. However, North also said that last week’s Packers and Giants wins had made such a flex less likely, and this week’s results, with the Packers and Giants winning again and the Texans and Jets losing, pretty much amounted to the perfect storm to allow Packers-Giants to keep its spot. The Giants are now only a half-game worse than the Jets, but the Jets increasingly look like the bigger tire fire and the possibility of Aaron Rodgers coming back isn’t enough to overcome that; meanwhile, the Texans are only a game better than the Packers with both being within striking distance of the playoffs. I don’t think those circumstances warrant a flex.
North didn’t talk about the possibility of the other half of the Monday night “doubleheader”, Titans-Dolphins, being flexed out, even though all the non-Texans-Jets games on the slate would be available for it. But while the league has used flex scheduling to put the same team on in the same primetime window in consecutive weeks, they haven’t done it in a while and I think they’d be really hesitant to do so for Monday night. Bengals-Jaguars is the Week 13 Monday night game, so flexing in Jags-Browns or Colts-Bengals would give one of those teams consecutive Monday night games; meanwhile, because Niners-Seahawks aired on NBC on Thanksgiving, Seahawks-Niners is locked to Fox without them even having to protect it. Under the assumption that protections had to be submitted before the deadline for the Thursday night flex, I predicted Fox would protect Rams-Ravens, and I might still lean towards that even though Vikings-Raiders is less lopsided since it’s pinned to the late singleheader with limited distribution. Either way, though, the best-case scenario is a game involving a team only a game better than the Titans, and I think showcasing Tua Tagovailoa, and even Will Levis, outweighs the possibility of going with a less lopsided game. Final prediction: No changes. (This also applies to the Sunday night and late Sunday afternoon windows after next week; color me skeptical that CBS would want to make Jags-Browns its new lead game over Bills-Chiefs under any circumstances, even before getting into this being the Bills’ bye week so they can’t fall below .500.)
Week 17: The reason I thought protections were due when the Thursday night flex was was because I wasn’t sure how protections would interact with the Thursday night flex in that instance; would networks be allowed to change their protection from the Thursday deadline to the Monday or Sunday deadline? Would networks be forced to lock in their protections several weeks early by the league voicing support for a potential TNF flex? Or would the league operate without any games being protected at all and work with the networks to avoid taking away any games they might otherwise want to protect?
These questions are relevant to this week where Amazon might find itself stuck showcasing the Jets’ tire fire and where whatever game Fox decided to protect would weigh heavily on the decision. I don’t really have a good sense of what Fox might protect; Steelers-Seahawks is probably the best game on the slate in terms of both records and name value, but is pinned to the late singleheader with limited distribution, and even with Saints-Bucs having NFC South implications I’m not sure how much Fox would want to hold on to it. If protections were due right now I think Fox would go with a game involving the Giants or Washington.
I’ve identified three TNF-eligible games but I don’t think Saints-Bucs would be a good choice as it depends on the Saints having played TNF the previous week, meaning they’d have had a full week of rest but the Bucs wouldn’t, which I don’t think the league would want to inflict on them. Chargers-Broncos and Steelers-Seahawks, in my reckoning, are eligible because of the Chargers and Steelers playing the previous Saturday, although North’s comments about the two-TNF-game-limit spinning out of the idea of the Black Friday game would seem to suggest the extra day of rest isn’t enough to keep it from falling under TNF game limits; even allowing teams to be flexed into a second Thursday road game wouldn’t be much help because of the Christmas day tripleheader the previous Monday.
If Steelers-Seahawks is protected that would leave a game involving a Chargers team with the same record as the Jets; if not, it’s worth noting that the Packers’ winning streak is making it less likely that the Sunday night game gets flexed out, where Steelers-Seahawks might otherwise seem to be a prime candidate. The Packers do host the Chiefs next week but then the Vikings are their only other opponent the rest of the way with a winning record, the Packers and Vikings do have enough name value that having it keep its spot just might be justifiable even if the Packers implode to 5-10, and even if not Saints-Bucs, despite involving two teams below .500, just might have enough playoff implications in the race for the NFC South to be worth flexing in. (Note that the Bucs, who would have to beat the Packers for them to go on a four-game skid, play the Panthers in Week 18, which would probably not be ideal for a Sunday night or Saturday window even if the first half of the matchup weren’t airing on CBS this coming week, while each Bucs win makes it less likely that Falcons-Saints decides the division.)
I’m almost talking myself into flexing in Steelers-Seahawks for Jets-Browns, which would allow the league to get its test of the Thursday night flex out of the way. But there are a few things holding me back. For one, all the caveats about the possibility of Packers-Vikings holding up is too couched in the language of probability for the league to rely on it. For another, if it looks seriously likely that the league would flex in Steelers-Seahawks, Fox might well decide to protect it. It would also look weird to flex out a game with clear playoff implications for one team (and possibly both) barely a week after all of North’s comments about only flexing out games that don’t have playoff implications, though the way he talked about flexing out Chiefs-Patriots as a possibility makes it seem like that should be an option here too. More importantly, it would be weird to give the Steelers a game on four days rest on top of the two Thursday games they’re already scheduled for barely a week after North implied that the Black Friday game, played on four days rest, is subject to the TNF appearance limit. And all of that’s not even getting into the possibility of Aaron Rodgers playing in this game. I wouldn’t be surprised if Steelers-Seahawks was flexed in, but my inclination is that it won’t be. Final prediction: No changes (for now).
Hi Walt
We need to get Vikings-Packers flexed out, I don’t care about the brands, Love vs Dobbs is another garbage NFC north matchup
Morgan:
As I’ve noted elsewhere, the NFL DOES has a precedent with regards to putting Saints-Bucs on Thursday Night Football in Week 17. This DID happen in 1997 when the then-Tennessee Oilers played on Thanksgiving in Dallas and played the following Thursday against the Bengals in a game where the Oilers were playing a second straight road game on normal rest while the Bengals were playing on three days rest. The Bengals DOMINATED that game 41-14.
If that is done in Week 17, which I can see the NFLPA giving waivers to the Saints for playing a THIRD Thursday night game AND a second road game since the Saints would be playing that game on normal rest while the Bucs would be playing a second straight home game on three days rest. That second road game for the Saints would be going east after after playing Week 16 in LA and with the Bucs playing at home in both Weeks 16 and 17 likely offsets the Saints playing on normal rest. As said, the one time this happened, the team playing on three days rest (Bengals in Week 15 of the 1997 season) dominated the team playing a second straight road game on normal rest, and the NFL can use that precedent to justify Saints-Bucs replacing Jets-Browns in Week 17 on TNF.
Looks like no changes for Week 14:
Not a surprise, the Packers are now in a dogfight with the Vikings for a wild card spot and the only game that could realistically replace Titans-Dolphins was Bucs-Falcons. This also means if the Pack continue to win it sets up their New Year’s Eve encounter to stay on SNF as if the Pack win out, they would even if the Vikings only lose to the Pack be the last Wild Card as of now as they are only a half-game back and would in that scenario be 11-6 vs. 10-7 for the Vikings if both otherwise win out.
As for Week 15: Still think Seahawks-Eagles is flexed to MNF to replace Chiefs-Patriots, however, that may depend on whether or not the Eagles beat the 49ers this week. If they do, there IS a scenario where the Eagles if they then beat the Cowboys next week where they potentially if the Cowboys then lose in Buffalo to the Bills in Week 15 will have clinched both the NFC East AND the #1 seed in the NFC BEFORE Eagles-Seahawks kicks off. That scenario might keep it out of a flex because Eagles-Seahawks could be completely meaningless to the Eagles (as would their subsequent three games against the Giants TWICE and the Cardinals in between the two Giants games).
Week 16: Saints-Rams has meaning as of now for both the NFC South and wild card and was never being flexed. No other flexes are possible that weekend due to the Christmas Holiday.
Week 17: Saints-Bucs could be flexed into TNF for reasons already noted. Lions-Cowboys likely had bearing on at least the NFC wild card if not the north and was never being flexed out on Saturday night (an ABC-only game) and as noted, Packers-Vikings is very likely to remain SNF on New Year’s Eve.
Week 18: If Steelers-Ravens is for the AFC North, that is either a Saturday game on ESPN or the Sunday Night Finale. If Falcons-Saints is for the NFC South, that is more likely the SNF finale as of now since that game would almost certainly be a “win or go home” game since the AFC North loser would be a wild card (and the #5 seed in all likelihood) with the Ravens and Steelers likely meeting again the following week if the Steelers won their rematch. If Falcons-Saints is the SNF finale, then Vikings-Lions if the Vikings are playing to stay alive for a wild card while the Lions are playing for a shot at the #2 seed in the NFC is the second Saturday game along with Ravens-Steelers on ESPN/ABC.
Hi Walt,
Likely no changes to Week 14, but they do have until tomorrow (11/29/23) to change the MNF games for Week 14. They won’t be changing SNF in Week 14, but that decision doesn’t need to be made until 12/04/23.
Jeff:
I think you mean Week 15, not 14. I do think if the Cowboys lose tonight AND the Eagles win on Sunday, they might not flex Eagles-Seahawks due to the possibility if they do and then the Eagles beat the Cowboys next Sunday night AND both the 49ers and Cowboys lose in Week 15 (if the Cowboys win Thursday), the Eagles-Seahawks game will be completely meaningless to the Eagles because they would have already clinched both the NFC East AND the #1 seed in the NFC. If the Eagles win this week, even if they lost in Dallas next Sunday (in what likely will be a desperation game for the Cowboys), the Eagles after the Seahawks have the Giants TWICE and the Cardinals in between. Those are likely all easy games for the Eagles and even losing to the Cowboys if they beat the 49ers this week makes it likely the Eagles will be the #1 seed with a win this week.
Once a lock to be the night Saturday slot for week 15, it’s now looking like Vikings-Bengals won’t make it to the Saturday slate. The Vikings have tumbled a little bit and the Bengals have lost their name value without Joe Burrow. Knowing the NFL, they’d love to put the Bears with the Chicago market against the respectable Browns over that game. With this, here is my prediction for the Saturday slate:
Bears-Browns: 1PM
Steelers-Colts: 4:30 PM
Broncos-Lions: 8:15 PM
I went back and forth between which one should be the night game, but ultimately went with Broncos-Lions because that matchup showcases the better teams. I’m not quite sure how big of a viewership difference there is between the late afternoon and night games for the Saturday games. They are interchangeable, though. Honestly, I think if the Colts win and Broncos lose, Steelers-Colts will be the night game, but if one of those doesn’t happen, we’ll rock with Broncos-Lions.
Both FOX and CBS have weak early slates for week 15, though Romo-Nantz might still end up calling Jets-Dolphins. I’ll say Vikings-Bengals goes to FOX and Falcons-Panthers goes to CBS.
If Eagles-Seahawks is flexed out, it’s possible that they move Chiefs-Patriots to 1PM instead and have Cowboys-Bills as a nationally televised game. That way they can make Chiefs-Pats their main early game. Honestly, I think this flex would be a win-win for FOX and ESPN, but with the Seahawks likely going to lose in Dallas, 6-6 might not be enough to flex out the Chiefs. The Patriots being on primetime weeks 14-16 is criminal, I’m praying that the NFL saves us from one of those appearances.
It’s looking more likely that Dolphins-Ravens could replace Bengals-Chiefs as the 4:25 game in week 17. Packers-Vikings might shape up to be a playoff elimination game, which would be enough to keep its spot. It will depend on how badly the Bengals falter down the stretch, but at this point my prediction is Dolphins-Ravens replaces Bengals-Chiefs as the main CBS game and no changes for SNF. I don’t think Jets-Browns is going to be moved from TNF week 17 especially now that Rodgers has opened his practice window.
Still can’t predict week 18, but potential scenarios to keep an eye on:
Bills-Dolphins could move to Saturday if the Bills are on the outside looking in and Dolphins have the division clinched and are playing for seeding. Quite unlikely that this is the division championship game, if so, that’s undoubtedly SNF.
Vikings-Lions fits in this same scenario.
Texans-Colts could be Saturday or Sunday Night if it’s a win-and-in game or teams playing for seeding.
Falcons-Saints easily could be for the NFC South title, but probably would get less viewership than other SNF teams, so it could be a solid Saturday night option
Chiefs-Chargers could be a Saturday game, same reasons why the Chiefs have been the early Saturday game last two years as they probably play for seeding. This is especially more likely if Chiefs-Patriots is flexed out of MNF, so ESPN might want a chiefs game back.
Rams-49ers also a prime candidate for Saturday (9ers playing for seeding, Rams trying to make playoffs)
Steelers-Ravens could be Sunday night or Saturday if the Ravens are playing for the 1 seed and Steelers looking to clinch a playoff spot.
Walt’s Lover:
For Week 15, Steelers-Colts will probably be the NFLN Saturday night game as Pittsburgh is a big brand who’s good. Broncos-Lions either moves to the 1:30 slot Saturday or goes to 10 AM Sunday to give CBS a decent game. If the former happens, Week 14 will be very important to decide which of Titans/Texans or Jets-Dolphins ends up as the CBS main game, and I expect the latter to prevail.
For the FOX slate Week 15, Cowboys-Bills cannot be a full national game at 1:25 due to the fact that there is too many national games already (London, Germany, Xmas, Thanksgiving, Black Friday, & the weekly night games) for it to happen because Sunday Ticket needs a minimum amount of games, & CBS/FOX 1:25 national games don’t count towards that total. I could see Eagles-Seahawks replacing Chiefs-Pats, & the latter being a co-lead with Bucs-Packers in the FOX early slate, while Falcons-Panthers is moved to 1:25 as to maximize the amount of people watching Dallas/Buffalo, while exposing the Chiefs to more people.
I fully agree with you for Week 17, & at this point, it’s way too early to fully figure out Week 18.
It’s official: The Eagles vs Seahawks game has been flexed to Monday Night. The Chiefs vs Patriots game will be on Sunday Afternoon at1pm
The NFLN Saturday games are:
Vikings-Bengals
Steelers-Colts
Broncos-Lions
Dallas-Buffalo is full national now
Hello all,
Seems that there will be no change to the Week 14, though yes Walt, they can wait until December 4th to change out the SNF game, but they won’t. It’s too good of a game.
And surprisingly, we got the full Week 15 schedule early.
Here it is! https://nflcommunications.com/Pages/Week-15-Flex-Scheduling—Eagles-Seahawks-to-Monday-Night;-NFL-Network-Tripleheader-on-Saturday.aspx
I just saw about the Week 15 flex. This is not surprising at all:
I’m surprised the NFL announced this now only because of the scenario I noted above:
Eagles beat the 49ers Sunday and the Cowboys next Sunday night.
AND
49ers lose in Week 14 to the Seahawks OR in Week 15 to the Cardinals
Cowboys lose either tonight (Week 13) to the Seahawks OR in Week 15 to the Bills.
If all of the above happen, the Eagles-Seahawks game in Week 15 is COMPLETELY MEANINGLESS to the Eagles because they will have already wrapped up the #1 seed in the NFC with four games to go (and even if they don’t wrap it up then, their three subsequent games are two meetings with the Giants (home Christmas Day, in The Meadowlands the final day) and the Cardinals in between on New Year’s Eve. Eagles potentially could be playing a lot of meaningless football in late December-early January before a January 20 or 21 Divisional round game.
Was not expecting to see major flex decisions on a Thursday but this is great news! I guess they rocked with Vikings-Bengals over Bears-Browns, which honestly makes sense because of the quarterback situation in Cleveland. I was right about Cowboys-Bills becoming a national game – this makes sense as it was a win-win for FOX and ESPN. ESPN gets a better game, FOX gets the Chiefs in the early window and can dish out Cowboys-Bills to the whole nation.
Glad to see that the NFL is finally making moves!
Walt: The eagles will not have wrapped up the #1 seed. That’s not really possible… even though the Seahawks might be 6-7 when the game is played, it’s still seeding implications for Philly while it’s Seattle playing for a playoff spot.
Something that’s interesting is that Bucs-Packers was quietly crossflexed to CBS, while FOX received all three of Bears-Browns, Falcons-Panthers, and Chiefs-Patriots. I wonder what the reasoning behind that is – is it possible that Romo/Nantz end up calling that game instead of Jets-Dolphins?
“Walt’s Lover:”
In the scenario I describe, the Eagles would be 12-1 going into the Seahawks game (and that game regardless is going to be important to the Seahawks) while the Cowboys and 49ers if both lose to the Eagles AND one other game as noted, both teams would have five losses with the Eagles having only ONE before the Seahawks game AND the tiebreaker with BOTH the 49ers and Cowboys. Only monkey wrench would be if the Lions don’t lose at all the rest of the way though the Eagles as of now own the conference tiebreaker on everyone.
And if the Eagles have all but clinched the #1 seed before the Seahawks game even if not officially, do you REALLY see them losing TWICE to the Giants AND to the Cardinals? Eagles have a death grip on the #1 seed in the NFC if they win this and next Sunday.