I thought I might have a chance to get this post up before we got too far into the Thursday night game, but the NFL caught me off guard by announcing Week 15 flexes for both Saturday and Monday night on Thursday afternoon. Possible this was driven by the desire not to cut it too close to announce the Saturday games, but regardless there wasn’t any reason not to announce this as early as Tuesday. I think I’m going to have to commit to posting these on Wednesday at the very latest from now on, at least until only six-day flexes are left, if I can find a way to bring myself to do that and have my brain in sufficient working order to do so. I’m going to try to capture my thinking prior to this announcement (and the chart also doesn’t reflect today’s news) and why that makes it all the more surprising.
How NFL flexible scheduling works: (see also the NFL’s own page on flex schedule procedures)
- Up to two games in Weeks 5-10 (the “early flex” period), and any number of games from Week 11 onward, may be flexed into Sunday Night Football. Any number of games from Week 12 onward may be flexed into Monday Night Football, and up to two games from Week 13 onward may be flexed into Thursday Night Football. In addition, in select weeks in December a number of games may be listed as “TBD”, with two or three of those games being assigned to be played on Saturday. Note that I only cover early flexes if a star player on one of the teams is injured.
- Only games scheduled for Sunday afternoon, or set aside for a potential move to Saturday, may be flexed into one of the flex-eligible windows – not existing primetime games or games in other standalone windows. The game currently listed in the flex-eligible window will take the flexed-in game’s space on the Sunday afternoon slate, generally on the network that the flexed-in game was originally scheduled for. The league may also move Sunday afternoon games between 1 PM ET and 4:05 or 4:25 PM ET.
- Thursday Night Football flex moves must be announced 28 days in advance. Sunday and Monday Night Football moves must be announced 12 days in advance, except for Sunday night games in Week 14 onward, which can be announced at any point up until 6 days in advance.
- CBS and Fox have the right to protect one game each per week, among the games scheduled for their networks, from being flexed into primetime windows. During the early flex period, they may protect games at any point once the league tells them they’re thinking of pulling the flex. It’s not known when they must protect games in the main flex period, only that it’s “significantly closer to each game date” relative to the old deadline of Week 5. My assumption is that protections are due five weeks in advance, in accordance with the 28-day deadline for TNF flexes. Protections have never been officially publicized, and have not leaked en masse since 2014, so can only be speculated on.
- Supposedly, CBS and Fox are also guaranteed one half of each division rivalry. Notably, some Week 18 games (see below) have their other halves scheduled for the other conference’s network, though none are scheduled for primetime.
- No team may appear more than seven times in primetime windows – six scheduled before the season plus one flexed in. This appears to consider only the actual time the game is played; Amazon’s Black Friday game does not count even though the rest of their TNF slate does, and NBC’s Saturday afternoon game Week 16 doesn’t count but their Peacock game that night does. This post contains a list of all teams’ primetime appearances entering the season.
- Teams may play no more than two Thursday games following Sunday games, and (apparently) no more than one of them can be on the road.
- In Week 18 the entire schedule, consisting entirely of games between divisional opponents, is set on six days’ notice, usually during the previous week’s Sunday night game. One game will be scheduled for Sunday night, usually a game that decides who wins the division, a game where the winner is guaranteed to make the playoffs while the loser is out, or a game where one team makes the playoffs with a win but falls behind the winner of another game, and thus loses the division and/or misses the playoffs, with a loss. Two more games with playoff implications are scheduled for Saturday on ABC and ESPN, with the remaining games doled out to CBS and Fox on Sunday afternoon, with the league generally trying to maximize what each team has to play for. Protections and appearance limits do not apply to Week 18.
- Click here to learn how to read the charts.
Week 15: Flexing in Eagles-Seahawks looked like much more of a sure thing when the Seahawks were sitting at 5-2 or 6-3 and competing for the NFC West lead than right now. They’ve hit a stretch of some tough opponents, such as the Ravens and Niners, but they’ve also completed being swept by a Rams team that’s 3-6 against non-Seahawks teams, and now they face a tough Thursday night test against the Cowboys in JerryWorld with a loss dropping them to .500. They’re still in playoff position at the moment, but the Packers and Rams have come on strong enough that it no longer looks like the non-NFC South playoff positions are all but set and the Seahawks are now only a game ahead of them, though being in danger of falling out of the playoffs might actually be a good thing compared to only fighting for seeding.
The Patriots are enough of a tire fire that Eagles-Seahawks is still clearly the superior game, and in fact at absolute worst the games could be equally lopsided if the Eagles and Pats win and the Seahawks and Chiefs lose, but at this point the Chiefs might be the second-most attractive team in the entire NFL and the Patriots and Bill Belichick still have plenty of name value of their own. I don’t know if there’s a scenario where I wouldn’t predict a flex, but at this point I would be completely understanding if the league stuck with Chiefs-Patriots and it wouldn’t even lead me to put much more stock in Mike North’s “playoff implications” comments from last week.
On the Saturday front, simply put, Monday’s game was arguably to determine whether Vikings-Bengals would lock up its spot on the Saturday slate or if Bears-Browns had a chance to catch it, and the result left things very much up in the air as, incredibly, the Bears, so widely mocked early in the season, are now only two games out of the playoffs, good enough to make the “waiting in the wings” section of the playoff picture graphic. Both teams now enter their bye week so their respective records won’t change, so this is going to be largely determined by the Browns and, especially, the Bengals. Keeping it close with the Cardiac Steelers doesn’t really say much about how good the Bengals might be with Jake Browning, and now they’re facing a Jaguars team that seems to be pretty firmly ensconced in the AFC’s second tier alongside the Dolphins and behind Baltimore and Kansas City, one it would be hard to blame them for losing unless they just got completely wiped off the field. The real problem is that with the Broncos and Texans playing each other, a loss is guaranteed to cause the Bengals to fall to at least a game and a half and probably two games out of the playoffs. Their saving grace might be that the Browns are dealing with their own quarterback injury situation, but a win against the Rams just might join up with the Bears’ name value and the lack of Joe Burrow to put Bears-Browns over the top.
Actual decisions:
- Philadelphia Eagles @ Seattle Seahawks to MNF. All the talk about Chiefs-Patriots having too much name value to move off of didn’t pan out, and the league clearly isn’t scared of a Seahawks losing streak making the game look lopsided. This also makes me breathe a sigh of relief that those “playoff implications” comments don’t mean too much for the league’s flexing priorities going forward. Note that Cowboys-Bills will now be a full national broadcast with no other game joining it at 4:25 ET, even though CBS has two 4:05 games that could have seen one of them crossflexed to Fox, and despite the lack of any scheduled full-national late doubleheader games raising the prospect that Sunday Ticket in the YouTube era was subject to additional protections against losing any afternoon games; however, Cowboys-Bills will still be available to Sunday Ticket as the Cardinals have had enough home games on the singleheader that they can enforce a blackout here. (Which might have been all the more reason to crossflex Niners-Cardinals, but presumably not depriving the Bay Area of Cowboys-Bills outweighed giving Arizona a full three afternoon games.)
- Minnesota Vikings @ Cincinnati Bengals, Pittsburgh Steelers @ Indianapolis Colts, and Denver Broncos @ Detroit Lions to Saturday on NFLN. Evidently the league is confident that the Bears’ stumbles and Browns’ injury situation trumps the lack of Burrow.
- Note that this is listed as a final Week 15 schedule, so don’t expect any changes to Cowboys-Bills or Ravens-Jaguars. Of course, there’s no reason to move away from Ravens-Jaguars, and there’s no way in hell Fox is ever going to move away from a playoff-bound Cowboys team for any reason. The next two weeks of posts will only include sections for Weeks 17 and 18.
Week 17: Look on the bright side, Amazon: you could be getting Aaron Rodgers for that Jets-Browns game! With that out of the way, all attention now focuses on Packers-Vikings, and the possibility that the Packers’ winning streak just might save it from being flexed, plus whether or not the Bengals stumble enough down the stretch for CBS to move out of Bengals-Chiefs for Dolphins-Ravens. Steelers-Seahawks is probably the best game available to Sunday night and is trapped in the late singleheader, but it’s also clearly the best game on Fox’s slate and now involves a team only a game better than the Packers. If Fox were to protect it, then the only options become games involving teams worse than the Packers. If we see more of the Packers team that beat the Lions this game will keep its spot. As mentioned earlier, the Jaguars won’t be much of a test for how good the Bengals are with Jake Browning at the helm; the games to watch on that front are Week 14 when the Bengals host the Colts and, to some extent, the Vikings game discussed above. If the Bengals win those games and maintain contact with the playoff race, and the Packers stumble against the Giants and Bucs the same two weeks, there may yet be room to call an audible and move Dolphins-Ravens to Sunday night.
Week 18: Cowboys-Sheriffs, Bucs-Panthers, and Texans-Colts are all rematches of games currently scheduled for the wrong conference’s network. The main Sunday night NFC contenders remain Vikings-Lions (though at this rate their Week 16 clash might be must-win for the Vikings to make it relevant in the right way to justify a move) and the NFC South games, as the Bears aren’t yet close enough to the playoffs for Bears-Packers to be in play as more than a Saturday option and Rams-Niners would be a delicate situation given the gap between the teams and the very different stakes they’d be playing for. Those games do remain options for Saturday, but Cowboys-Sheriffs might be fading too fast as the Cowboys’ playoff position firms up and Washington’s hopes remain on life support. In the AFC the North games remain the strongest contenders with Steelers-Ravens having a chance to decide the division and Browns-Bengals potentially deciding a playoff spot, with Texans-Colts potentially also being a winner-take-all game and Bills-Dolphins and Broncos-Raiders standing as dark horses.
Nailed it. Good call on Saturday tripleheader. No Mahomes 5 TDs on MNF at NE hurts his MVP chances. Shady switch to promote Hurts
P.S. Walt predictions went 0-fer-2023?
Can patriots vs broncos on Christmas Eve be flexed out?
Michael-
Before Walt geeks out, no. It’s an nfl network game.
Not surprised at the three Saturday games and Eagles-Seahawks becoming MNF. The only reason I would have thought they’d hold of on the latter is why even though the Seahawks even if they lose again next week to the 49ers (very likely), they will remain in the NFC Wild Card hunt regardless along with the Packers, Vikings and (for now) whoever loses the NFC South, but there are scenarios where that game if the Eagles win this and next Sunday vs. the 49ers and at the Cowboys respectively AND the 49ers and Cowboys each lose one other game along with the Lions also losing where the Eagles could have the #1 NFC seed wrapped up BEFORE they play the Seahawks.
It also looks like for Week 17 Jets-Browns stays in place. Not surprising since that game will have playoff implications for the Browns no matter who is their quarterback. Lions-Cowboys remains the MNF-on-Saturday-on-ABC game (not on ESPN I believe because of the New Year’s Six bowl games) and I do think Packers-Vikings remains SNF because that game is likely to have serious bearing on the last if not the last two wild card spots (Cowboys are a near-lock at this point to be the #5 seed in the NFC).
Week 18: If Steelers-Ravens is for the AFC North, that is either a Saturday game on ESPN or the Sunday Night Finale. If Falcons-Saints is for the NFC South, that is more likely the SNF finale as of now since that game would almost certainly be a “win or go home” game since the AFC North loser would be a wild card (and the #5 seed in all likelihood) with the Ravens and Steelers likely meeting again the following week if the Steelers won their rematch. If Falcons-Saints is the SNF finale, then Vikings-Lions if the Vikings are playing to stay alive for a wild card while the Lions are playing for a shot at the #2 seed in the NFC is the second Saturday game along with Ravens-Steelers on ESPN/ABC.
Hey guys. Finally a real flex!!! And it features my Eagles!!! Thank god because I know nobody outside of KC or Foxboro wanted to watch that garbage!! With that being said the next flex that I see possible is week 17. MIA-BAL at minimum will be moved to the main CBS 4:25 slot. KC-CIN is a dud without Burrow playing. Plus the Vikings and Packers could be clinging to their playoff lives by then making 2 teams in “Contention”(as per the Flex explanation) which will make that game keep it’s spot!
So, we got no flex for TNF in the 1st year (and hopefully last year) of eligibility. I was surprised they pulled the trigger on the entire Week 15 schedule so early, but I think it’s not bad that they did.
And Walt, that Week 17 Saturday game between Detroit/Dallas was not flex eligible.
Go Pack Go Sunday at Lambeau vs the Chiefs.
Hi, Jeff. Even though Packers vs. buccaneers game on week 15 quietly crossflexed that matchup on cbs, it’s very possible Jim Nantz, Tony Romo and Tracy Wolfson announcing that matchup related to playoff implications in order to find out if packers will eliminate the buccaneers in the playoffs this season or not. Also, the bears surprisingly beat the Vikings at Minneapolis this past Monday night and there are some easy matchups for the bears this month that the bears could easily beat. If somehow bears and packers are winning football games this month and stay alive in the playoff hunt, I could see Packers vs. Bears game at Lambeau be flexed to SNF NBC for playoff implications.
Brian: HELL no.
Isaiah: Or perhaps, Isaiah, packers vs bears game at Lambeau on week 18 could be a noon game assuming bears or packers or both teams get eliminated in the playoffs before that week 18 matchup.
The bears are not beating the lions and browns. I’d be surprised if they beat the falcons too.
Remember that Monday Night Game that everyone wanted to flex? Now, suddenly the Packers vs Giants is an important game with playoff implications.
Brain: their is absolutely no chance that Bears at Packers in week 18 will be the final game of the regular season. I say most likely Dolphins Bills will get that spot.
Hi, Robert. That is assuming Buffalo Bills will win the remaining games and the dolphins fall apart at the end of this NFL regular season. But if the dolphins win the division and Buffalo bills miss the playoffs this season, that’s no way Bills vs. Dolphins at Miami game get flexed to SNF week 18.
The AFC South just got very interesting as Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence didn’t finish the game with an injury to what looks like his ankle. The Colts and Texans are now both 1 game within the Jaguars as the Bengals just beat the Jags in OT in Jacksonville. Colts Texans in Indy could be the final game of the 2023 season on SNF.
I’m frankly surprised, and happy, the Packers have gelled. Speaking of them, as of this typing at the end of the MNF game, the Packers-Giants game is still slated for ABC for most of the country.
I don’t see the Bears-Packers game going to SNF on Week 18, though that could easily be a Saturday one. We’ll most likely get Falcons-Saints for the NFC South crown on SNF.
Week 13 had an interesting outcome on what the NFL wants to do for week 17. With the Packers big win over the Chiefs on Sunday, it seems that Packers-Vikings will stay on SNF unless both teams are eliminated from playoff contention (extremely unlikely). This game is going to have major playoff implications and it would take a lot to flex it out. With the Jaguars and Chiefs’ losses, the dolphins and ravens are now tied at the top of the AFC at 9-3, making it more likely that their week 17 matchup could be for the 1 seed. If that is so, it would be absolutely criminal to keep that matchup at 1pm among 8 other games. Last week we were all talking about Bengals-Chiefs being moved back to 1pm for Dolphins-Ravens, but with Jake Browning having a stellar showing on MNF, they might keep its spot. We have some scenarios that could happen:
1. Packers and Vikings do badly enough to warrant a Dolphins-Ravens SNF flex. Bengals-Chiefs stays at 4:25
2. Bengals fall off, Dolphins-Ravens replaces them at 4:25. Packers-Vikings stays on SNF
3. Dolphins-Ravens joins Bengals-Chiefs at 4:25, distribution is split among those two games, with Chargers-Broncos limited only to their local markets. Whatever game Romo/Nantz calls depends on how important Dolphins-Ravens ends up being or how good/bad the Bengals are. This seems to make sense but CBS might have a bad early slate. Raiders-Colts could shape up to be solid.
4. The NFL is a bum and actually keeps that game at 1pm (I will cry if this happens).
For week 18, the major change that happened this week was the AFC South race getting tighter, meaning that Texans-Colts is a prime candidate for a flex. Mike North has said that they are finding ways to get people to watch more Texans games. I wouldn’t expect this game to be for the division considering that the Jaguars are a game up and have gone 3-1 against both those teams, but it could be for a wild card spot and hence be SNF or Saturday. It’s now less likely that Steelers-Ravens is for the AFC North, but if somehow the Steelers are only a game back by week 18, then that’s undoubtedly SNF.
Rams-49ers stock also went up a lot as the Rams could be playing for a playoff spot/seeding and 49ers could be playing for the 1 seed. Vikings-Lions fits in this scenario too but the Lions probably won’t be playing for the 1 seed.
Bills-Dolphins stock unsure since the Dolphins extended their lead to 3 games but this game also fits in the category of these two above where the Bills are fighting for a playoff spot and Dolphins fighting for the 1 seed.
Chiefs-Chargers stock went down because it still looks like the Chargers will be eliminated come week 18 and the Chiefs might not be playing for the 1 seed by then.
Falcons-Saints stock went down as the Falcons are now a game up on the Saints and have a respectable 3-0 division record, meaning that they could wrap up the NFC South by week 17. If they lose to the Buccaneers this week however, everything is up in the air.
Browns-Bengals stock went up with Jake Browning’s amazing performance and the Browns loss makes it less likely that they’ll have a playoff spot wrapped up before week 18.
That’s it for this week, happy flex scheduling!
Walt’s Lover: Given how badly they screwed the pooch on not only flex scheduling but the whole entire PT schedule I wouldn’t rule out number 4 lol. Either way MIA-BAL needs to be made available to the whole country in the 4:25 slot at the very least!!!
Robert: I still like Ravens-Steelers for SNF week 18. However we will see how long Pickett winds up missing.
Hi Brian,
I can’t see the Packers and Bears on SNF in Week 18, but at least things are getting quite interesting now!
Go Pack Go!!
Jeff
Hi, Jeff. I think you’re right about at least things getting interesting now. Maybe in my opinion, that Packers vs. bears game at Lambeau week 18 could be flexed to Saturday on Monday night football abc in order to find if GB will clinch the playoff berth or not this season since Jordan Love is playing good football this season lately and his old mentor Aaron Rodgers is unlikely to play with his new team Jets for the remainder of this season because of his injury and the most likelihood of Jets eliminated in the playoffs this season and it’s very possible that the Jets may have to fire their head coach, the jets general manager, perhaps everybody in the jets front office.
Looking at Week 18 following the Monday night game, it looks like as of now Texans-Colts is a prime candidate for Saturday night since as of now that game could at worst be for a wild card depending on how the Jags fare the next few weeks (Jags hold the division tiebreaker at 4-1 and only have the Titans left in the division). The other Saturday night game right now looks to be Vikings-Lions since that could be for seeding for the Lions and the Vikings trying to stay alive for what it looks like right now to be one of two NFC Wild Card berths.
Sunday night if the Falcons and Saints are tied for the division lead (Falcons own all tie-breakers against then) AND the Bucs are NOT in that tie, then I think Falcons-Saints for the NFC South is the Sunday night finale. That is a HUGE rivalry in the south going back to when the Saints entered the NFL in 1967 and I think would do better than many think.
The Week 17 Sunday nighter at this point is almost certain to be Packers-Vikings. That game could very well decide one of the two NFC wild cards not involving the NFC East loser that will be the #5 seed.