What the 2024 NFL Schedule Should Look Like

The 2024 NFL schedule is slated to be released tonight at 8 PM ET – not ideal as it falls in the middle of network upfront week, as opposed to past years when it was released before upfronts so networks could promote the games on their schedule, with the most likely culprit for the delay being ongoing negotiations with Netflix and Amazon for the slate of Christmas Day games that were unexpectedly added.

Last year, I published a list of the games that should have been given featured windows on the 2023 schedule but weren’t. As the year went along, however, I became increasingly convinced that the protections given to CBS and Fox in the new TV contracts had the effect of severely constricting the league’s schedule flexibility. If CBS and Fox no longer needed to protect divisional matchups if the other half had already been scheduled for another network, or if they no longer needed to protect games involving the biggest brands – the Cowboys and Chiefs – at all if they had the minimum eight games involving them, it suddenly became a lot more difficult to flex any games at all. The idea of “playing your way into primetime” had long been a joke, but now it had been rendered an outright lie. To the extent they ever wanted to, the league can no longer rely on flexible scheduling to deliver the best matchups to the biggest audiences. This became most apparent in Week 17, when a Dolphins-Ravens game to determine the #1 seed in the AFC was stuck in the early doubleheader window while CBS’ late window remained focused on a game between the Bengals, whose playoff chances without Joe Burrow were hanging by a thread, and the Chiefs, virtually locked into the 3 seed at that point, and while the Sunday night game involved two teams in the Packers and Vikings that, at the time, were on the outside looking in on the playoff picture. As it happened, I’d identified Dolphins-Ravens as one of the games that should have been given a featured window but wasn’t, and even suggested that if things played out exactly as expected, it would be a potential candidate to be flexed in for Packers-Vikings.

In short, the increased difficulty of flex scheduling means that the schedule that’s announced in May should set the league up for success as much as possible. At least down the stretch of the season, if the three main featured windows (the late doubleheader, Sunday night, and Monday night) don’t contain the three best games of the week, any game that is among the three best but is buried as an undercard should not be set up to be protected. In other words, they can’t be the most desirable game on the singleheader network, and if they’re on the doubleheader network then the main late game can’t be a divisional game where the other matchup is on another network, or a game involving the Cowboys or Chiefs – and such situations should generally be avoided during the main flex period in general, or at least avoiding having games with teams with significantly worse expected records hogging spots while games between teams expected to be .500 or above can’t or won’t be flexed in. Creating a situation where the league would want to pull a flex if teams perform exactly as expected is already something of a failure of schedule construction, as flexible scheduling should only come in if teams don’t perform as expected; creating a situation where the league would want to pull a flex but can’t should be completely unacceptable.

Given these constraints, it’s not enough for me to point to certain games and say they should have been given more prominent spots; I should be able to put together a schedule that maximizes distribution of the best games and teams and minimizes the likelihood of flexes being desirable but impossible, while still allowing for some diversity of teams featured, giving networks shots at the most desirable teams, and generally putting something together that looks like what the league might actually put together. That’s what I intend to do in this post: put together the sort of schedule that the league should be constructing. Details on how I put this together, as well as the schedule itself, after the jump. 

As a proxy for how good each team is expected to be, I start by taking each team’s win totals as of May 1 at the three Official Sportsbook Partners of the NFL: Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel. While sportsbooks generally seem to try to avoid whole-number win totals, presumably to minimize the possibility of a push, this year was unique in that there were none at all, minimizing how useful this was to separate out teams; I break ties using teams’ odds to win the Super Bowl, but there’s still some fudging in terms of which games would potentially be listed in each tier. Here’s how the teams break down, with asterisks indicating that two sportsbooks listed the team at the given win total but one had them higher or lower. The first “Tier 1” row is a catchall signifying that all games between teams in that row fell into Tier 1, as defined below.

Tier 1	Chiefs, 49ers, Ravens, Lions, Bills, Bengals, Eagles, Cowboys
Tier 2	Packers* (two books had them at 10.5)
9.5	Texans, Dolphins, Jets, Falcons
8.5	Rams, Bears, Chargers, Browns, Jaguars, Colts, Steelers*
7.5	Buccaneers*, Seahawks, Saints

Then I sort every game by the perceived quality of the worse team in the game and divide them into tiers of 18 games each, as described here, so if the games were evenly distributed there would be one game from each tier in each week. Ideally, the three main featured windows of the late doubleheader, Sunday nights, and Monday nights would have all their games come from tiers 1-3, with tiers 4 and 5 filling out “double doubleheaders”, Monday night doubleheaders, and special windows, plus the Thursday night slate; then tier 6 and the rest of tier 5 would fill out most of the main games in the 1 PM ET window (I don’t go as far as to identify a tier 7 as that would involve teams expected to be below .500 and the point of this exercise isn’t to identify lead 1 PM games anyway). That’s not always possible, and for various reasons the league and networks don’t prioritize the strictly best games anyway, so I merely try to maximize how much of the best games end up featured, using these principles and procedures:

• Start by “drafting” the 8-9 games I think NBC, ESPN, Fox, CBS, and Amazon would most want. The first four get two games each while Amazon gets the ninth game depending on how easy it would be to give them that game (ie, if it’s a Cowboys game, the game gets held in reserve depending on the Thanksgiving schedule).
• Fill out the rest of the late doubleheader windows with the games involving the most attractive teams, making sure to leave aside enough Cowboys and Chiefs games for NBC and ESPN as well as giving CBS their quota of two Cowboys games. Then fill out the Sunday night slate, then Monday night. Only then should international, Opening Night, and Thanksgiving games be filled out (though the need to fill them out should be kept in mind throughout the process).
• Generally, whichever division has the highest-ranked third-best team should have their Week 18 games distributed as 2 vs. 3 and 1 vs. 4.
• All Tier 1 games, as well as any Tier 2 games being played on the West Coast, must be placed in featured windows.
• CBS and Fox are guaranteed one half of each divisional rivalry, so schedule accordingly. However, if a divisional game is designated as a late doubleheader game, the return match must be scheduled for a different featured window on another network.
• Remaining Tier 2 and 3 games not placed in featured windows must be identified as lead 1 PM ET games that are a) prior to the main flex period, b) on the singleheader network in a week where the game is not higher-rated than the lead doubleheader, Sunday night, or Monday night games, or c) on the doubleheader network in a week where the lead game is not a divisional, Cowboys, or Chiefs game, and if in December, is not higher rated than the games in the main featured windows (same as condition b). No more than one game per network per week may be identified this way. Tier 3 games on the West Coast must follow condition b) regardless of whether they follow condition a); if this is not possible, try to place the game in a week with a higher rated 1 PM singleheader game, and if it’s still not possible, place it on the doubleheader network in a week where the lead game is not Tier 1 but is still higher rated, as is the 1 PM game. No more than one Tier 3 West Coast game may be placed in a given week, regardless of network.
• Every team that would fill out the top seven tiers (or has better than +200 odds to make the playoffs) must receive at least one game in a featured window, and every team that made the playoffs last year and has a win total of at least 8 must be given a Sunday night game.

Note that, while I did try to give each network games that I can see each network airing, and I did try to put each game in a time on the calendar that makes sense to me, the purpose of this post is more to list the games than could and should be given featured windows than to specify specific ones, so don’t read too much into the specific slots and networks I assigned each game to. I also freely admit that this schedule isn’t necessarily one the league would have come up with, especially in that it doesn’t share the wealth of Sunday and Monday night games among as many teams as the league would probably prefer; I’ll try to work out the kinks next year. Lastly, this post does reflect the games that have already been revealed by the league’s network partners, but not games that have been leaked by other sources. With all that out of the way, let’s look at the schedule I came up with. Asterisks indicate that the window in question is an official flex scheduling window.

Week 1:

• Kickoff Game (Sep 5, NBC): Ravens @ Chiefs
• Brazil game (Sep 6, Peacock): Packers v. Eagles
• Sun 4:05 (Sep 8, CBS): Steelers @ Broncos
• Sun 4:25 (Sep 8, Fox): Cowboys @ Browns
• SNF (Sep 8, NBC): Rams @ Lions
• MNF (Sep 9, ESPN/ABC): Jets @ 49ers

Week 2:

• TNF (Sep 12, Amazon): Bills @ Dolphins
• Sun afternoon (Sep 15, Fox): Falcons @ Eagles
• Sun 4:25 (Sep 15, CBS): Bengals @ Chiefs
• SNF (Sep 15, NBC): Texans @ Cowboys
• MNF (Sep 16, ESPN): Rams @/v. Seahawks

Week 3:

• TNF (Sep 19, Amazon): Falcons @ Vikings
• Sun afternoon (Sep 22, Fox): Texans @ Packers
• Sun 4:05 (Sep 22, Fox): 49ers @ Rams
• Sun 4:25 (Sep 22, CBS): Ravens @ Steelers
• SNF (Sep 22, NBC): Bills @/v. Jets
• MNF (Sep 23, ABC): Giants @/v. Cowboys
• MNF (Sep 23, ESPN): Jaguars @ Dolphins

Week 4:

• TNF (Sep 26, Amazon): Bears @ Washington
• Sun 4:05 (Sep 29, CBS): Dolphins @ Rams
• Sun 4:25 (Sep 29, Fox): Lions @ Packers
• SNF (Sep 29, NBC): Chiefs @ 49ers
• MNF (Sep 30, ESPN/ABC): Eagles @ Ravens

Week 5:

• TNF (Oct 3, Amazon): Giants @ Browns
• London game (Oct 6, NFLN): Jets v. Vikings
• Sun 4:25 (Oct 6, CBS): Cowboys @ Steelers
• SNF (Oct 6, NBC): Eagles @ Rams
• MNF (Oct 7, ESPN): Chiefs @ Chargers

Week 6:

• TNF (Oct 10, Amazon): Eagles @ Buccaneers
• London game (Oct 13, NFLN): Jaguars v. Bears
• Sun afternoon (Oct 13, CBS): Dolphins @ Jets
• Sun 4:25 (Oct 13, Fox): 49ers @ Bills
• SNF (Oct 13, NBC): Bengals @ Cowboys
• MNF (Oct 14, ESPN): Steelers @ Colts

Week 7:

• TNF (Oct 17, Amazon): Rams @ 49ers
• London game (Oct 20, NFLN): Patriots v. Jaguars
• Sun afternoon (Oct 20, CBS): Bills @ Texans
• Sun 4:25 (Oct 20, Fox): Chiefs @ Falcons
• SNF (Oct 20, NBC): Packers @/v. Bears
• MNF (Oct 21, ESPN): Ravens @/v. Bengals

Week 8:

• TNF (Oct 24, Amazon): Broncos @ Jets
• Sun afternoon (Oct 27, Fox): Eagles @ Saints (Super Bowl “dry run”)
• Sun 4:25 (Oct 27, CBS): Chiefs @ Steelers (I know this game has been widely reported as falling on Christmas but I’m not upending my entire schedule to accommodate it and I like how I handle the holiday better)
• SNF (Oct 27, NBC): Bills @ Ravens
• MNF (Oct 28, ESPN): Cowboys @ Falcons

Week 9:

• TNF (Oct 31, Amazon): Colts @ Packers
• Sun afternoon (Nov 3, CBS): Dolphins @ Bills
• Sun 4:25 (Nov 3, Fox): Bears @ 49ers
• SNF (Nov 3, NBC): Texans @ Jets
• MNF (Nov 4, ESPN): Browns @ Saints

Week 10:

• TNF (Nov 7, Amazon): Steelers @ Ravens
• Munich game (Nov 10, NFLN): Giants v. Panthers
• Sun afternoon (Nov 10, CBS): Rams @ Jets
• Sun 4:25 (Nov 10, Fox): Eagles @ Cowboys
• SNF (Nov 10, NBC): Buccaneers @ Chargers
• MNF (Nov 11, ESPN): Lions @ Texans

Week 11:

• TNF (Nov 14, Amazon): Bengals @ Titans
• Sun 4:25 (Nov 17, CBS): Ravens @ Cowboys
• SNF (Nov 17, NBC)*: 49ers @ Dolphins
• MNF (Nov 18, ESPN): Bills @ Rams

Week 12:

• TNF (Nov 21, Amazon): Seahawks @ Patriots
• Sun 4:05 (Nov 24, CBS): Dolphins @ Rams
• Sun 4:25 (Nov 24, Fox): Cowboys @ 49ers
• SNF (Nov 24, NBC)*: Packers @ Lions
• MNF (Nov 25, ESPN)*: Texans @ Chiefs

Week 13:

• Thanksgiving (Nov 28, CBS): Bears @ Lions
• Thanksgiving (Nov 28, Fox): Washington @ Cowboys
• Thanksgiving (Nov 28, NBC): Ravens @ Chargers
• Black Friday (Nov 29, Amazon): Steelers @ Falcons
• Sun 4:25 (Dec 1, CBS): Chiefs @ Bills
• SNF (Dec 1, NBC)*: Browns @/v. Bengals
• MNF (Dec 2, ESPN)*: 49ers @ Packers

Week 14:

• TNF (Dec 5, Amazon)*: Lions @ Cowboys
• Sun 4:25 (Dec 8, CBS): Bengals @/v. Ravens
• SNF (Dec 8, NBC)*: Dolphins @ Texans
• MNF (Dec 9, ABC)*: Steelers @ Eagles
• MNF (Dec 9, ESPN)*: Saints @/v. Buccaneers

Week 15:

• TNF (Dec 12, Amazon)*: Chiefs @/v. Raiders
• Sun 4:25 (Dec 15, Fox): Bears @/v. Packers
• SNF (Dec 15, NBC)*: Cowboys @ Eagles
• MNF (Dec 16, ABC)*: Jets @/v. Patriots
• MNF (Dec 16, ESPN)*: Seahawks @ Falcons

Week 16:

• TNF (Dec 19, Amazon)*: Jaguars @ Texans
• Saturday (Dec 21, Fox): Eagles @/v. Giants
• Saturday (Dec 21, NBC): Jets @ Steelers
• Saturday (Dec 21, ESPN+): Patriots @ Bengals
• Sun 4:25 (Dec 22, CBS): Chargers @ Chiefs
• SNF (Dec 22, NBC)*: Packers @ Rams
• MNF (Dec 23, ESPN/ABC)*: Bills @ Lions

Week 17:

• Christmas 1 PM ET (Dec 25, Netflix): Giants @ Steelers
• Christmas 4:30 PM ET (Dec 25, Netflix): Eagles @ Bengals
• TNF (Dec 26, Amazon)*: Saints @ Chargers
• 3 Saturday games (Dec 28, NFLN): Flexible selections
• Sun afternoon (Dec 29, CBS): Ravens @ Texans
• Sun 4:25 (Dec 29, CBS): Jets @/v. Bills
• SNF (Dec 29, NBC)*: Lions @ 49ers
• MNF (Dec 30, ESPN/ABC)*: Dolphins @ Packers

Week 18 notable games:

• Jets @/v. Dolphins
• Lions @ Bears
• Ravens @/v. Browns
• Steelers @/v. Bengals
• Giants @/v. Eagles

My intention is to stream an ersatz schedule release special that spends more time actually presenting the schedule than NFL Network’s excuse for a special here tonight at 8 PM ET/5 PM PT, though my computer can be temperamental enough that I may end up cancelling it (and I could also end up sleeping through my alarm, as I did for a dentist’s appointment yesterday… yikes).