Month: October 2009

2009 College Football Rankings – Week 8

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This was a wild week for the C Ratings – and this was a week in which in many ways, the C Ratings were justified! Every so often I find myself wondering if the computer on which the calculations are done affect the resulting rankings. Just look at the turnover on the rankings this week – what are TCU and Boise State doing as the next-best teams behind the Big Four, in the year of one of the largest gaps between the BCS and non-BCS conferences I’ve ever seen? What are Pitt and Penn State doing in the Top 10? Did Oklahoma State really just zoom into the Top 20 after weeks of waiting on the outside of the Top 25 looking in? Tennessee at #29 despite being in negative B Points? Blame some of the surprising results we had in college football this week – especially Alabama needing a last-second blocked field goal to beat Tennessee, causing a flip-flop with Texas to put the Longhorns back into the top spot of the C Ratings. This week’s C Ratings do not include games already played.

How the C Ratings are tabulated: First, A Ratings are tabulated by multiplying the total score ratio, which is expressed by (points-opponents’ points)/points, by the winning percentage. Score ratio minimizes the effect of running up the score. Next, B Points for each game are tabulated by (margin of victory)/(opponent’s A rating)+/-1 for wins, and -(margin of loss)/(1-opponent’s A Rating)+/-1 for losses. The “+/-” is + for road games and – for home ones. The total number of B Points is multiplied by the A Rating to get the B Rating. Conference Ratings are tabulated by averaging the B Ratings of all teams in the conference. (Independents are counted separately, and Army and Navy are counted as one conference.) Finally, the C Rating is tabulated by taking the difference between the team’s B Rating and his conference’s rating, taking a fraction of that equal to the fraction of Division I-A the conference makes up, and taking the result off the B Rating. The three ratings go A, B, C across. Click here to see the complete ratings.

1 Texas (7-0)
Big 12 Leader		 .803 35.247 31.282 The Longhorns followed a worrying effort against Oklahoma with an impressive one against Missou to retake the top spot – but people are still too enamored of the SEC. But Oklahoma State could very easily be a trap game.
2 Florida (7-0)
SEC Leader
Princeton-Yale Title		 .810 33.170 29.735 Florida may have missed an opportunity to return to by letting a weak Mississippi State team get too far into the game. Will the refs have to save them again at the World’s Largest Cocktail Party?
3 Cincinnati (7-0)
Big East Leader		 .798 28.076 26.174 Cincinnati’s own coach told ESPN’s “College Football Live” Wednesday he voted his own team fifth. Did no one notice the Big East had a nonconference on par with any other BCS conference? More on this next week.
4 Alabama (8-0) .801 26.665 23.881 So much for the darling of the blogosphere – Alabama should be worried that they’re fourth despite playing one more game. They better fix the problems with the Tennessee game, because LSU comes to town after the bye.
5 TCU (7-0)
Non-BCS Leader		 .779 25.582 21.911 BYU’s poll ranking is mostly driven by their success in seasons past, but 38-7 is 38-7, especially against their best A Rating faced so far. Could this be the BCS buster that finally makes the title game?
6 Boise State (7-0) .802 22.322 18.742 Assuming both stay unbeaten and neither make the title game, with the proven appeal of the underdog, I’d like to see the Sugar or Fiesta Bowl select a non-BCS team with their first pick and book a 2008 Poinsettia Bowl rematch.
7 Iowa (8-0)
Big Ten Leader		 .668 20.409 17.742 If the Hawkeyes want to be in national championship consideration, especially with the stigma the Big Ten has picked up, they’ve got to stop escaping close games against teams they should beat handily.
8 Pittsburgh (7-1) .629 16.310 15.192 Want to know how good the Big East really is? Pitt just demolished a South Florida team that was unbeaten two weeks ago. Their rating is almost entirely driven big Big East opponents. How big might the Cincinnati game be?
9 Penn State (7-1) .709 16.797 14.461 Big win over a Michigan team that’s not the team that lost to Appalachian State. They need Iowa to lose twice, though, and three of the Hawkeyes’ remaining four are at home to mediocre teams.
10 Oregon (6-1)
Pac-10 Leader
2006 Boise State Title		 .591 15.233 13.086 People are talking up USC as perhaps a better national title contender than Cincinnati or Iowa. If the Ducks can knock the Trojans off in Autzen, with a better loss, will people say the same things about them?
11 Virginia Tech (5-2)
ACC Leader		 .465 15.315 12.947 V-Tech slips for the bye, but they’ll slip again next week because they just lost a close one to North Carolina. Will people interpret this as “the ACC is better and has more parity than we thought”, or “V-Tech was never that good anyway”?
12 Oklahoma (4-3) .412 11.932 10.299 Oh ye of little faith, who dropped Oklahoma out of the polls entirely after losing Sam Bradford for the season. They showed a good Kansas team that for all the crap teams they’d beaten, they still kept it close in every loss.
13 USC (6-1) .609 12.138 10.248 USC slips a couple of spots despite handling a pretty good Oregon State team relatively easily because Washington lost again – badly – and so did Washington State, even if to another USC opponent in Cal. Need to beat Oregon to prove their poll ranking.
14 Ohio State (6-2) .545 9.707 8.021 Get back on track by beating Minnesota, and will now have a tune-up against New Mexico State before a couple of litmus test games against Penn State and Iowa. They still control their own Rose Bowl destiny.
15 LSU (6-1) .560 9.027 8.007 Handled Auburn properly. Now Tulane is going to be a tuneup for the Alabama game, at which point LSU will either shock the college football world and sneak into the SEC Title Game, or prepare for the Capitol One Bowl as an afterthought.
16 Oklahoma State (6-1) .617 5.409 4.428 With no wins against teams in positive B Points and a 5-point squeaker over Texas A&M, OSU hadn’t done enough to justify their poll ranking – until allowing a season low against an FBS school v. Baylor. But Bryant’s gone, and Texas ain’t Baylor.
17 Clemson (4-3) .357 5.531 4.141 The moral, as always: the C Ratings know best. Clemson’s still not ranked in the polls, though they have votes across the board, and even here they’ll slip after playing I-AA Coastal Carolina, but they’re in pole position in the Atlantic.
18 West Virginia (6-1) .571 4.288 3.972 The Mountaineers foiled what could have been a good story about the Huskies overcoming adversity to win, but still, they entered this week one of three teams unbeaten in conference. But the meat of the schedule is still to come.
19 Georgia Tech (7-1) .554 5.240 3.879 The pollsters are still overrating G-Tech on the outskirts of the Top 10. Handling Virginia is good, but Vanderbilt will hardly be a test. Still, they, not V-Tech, control their own destiny in the Coastal.
20 Nebraska (4-3) .379 4.326 3.454 What happened? One minute the Huskers are blowing out Missouri and challenging Kansas for the Big 12 North, the next they’re losing to Texas Tech and freaking Iowa State, and no longer control their own destiny. At least KU is losing too.
21 Texas Tech (5-3) .414 3.237 2.474 The only people who saw Texas A&M upend Texas Tech were in the stadium. The Red Raiders finally faltered at home, and now don’t look so hot. Fortunately, the Jayhawks come into town reeling too.
22 Arizona (5-2) .433 3.654 2.472 Lost in all the talk about the big Oregon-USC showdown this weekend is that the Wildcats, now ranked in the polls heading into the bye, still control their own destiny – and get Oregon at home. Sure, they have to play in the Coliseum, but still.
23 Utah (6-1) .557 4.021 1.967 Hold steady because they beat a good Air Force team, but not by a lot. That doesn’t inspire the confidence the polls have in them. Need to blow out Wyoming to stay on this Top 25.
24 Notre Dame (5-2) .413 1.836 1.836 Back on the Top 25 after beating Boston College, but they’ve gotta stop being the Cardiac Irish. Having a performance that sluggish against lowly Washington State will send you right back off again.
25 Mississippi (5-2) .469 2.137 1.806 They were just outside the Top 25 last week and did what they needed to do this week against a good Arkansas team – but only move up one spot. Now they travel to play a reeling Auburn team.

28 teams total with positive C Rating (none with negative B Rating)

Off Top 25: #26 Connecticut (was #22), #31 Kansas (was #18), #37 Virginia (was #21)

Watch List: #26 Connecticut, #27 Miami (FL), #28 South Carolina

Other Positive B Ratings: #30 Fresno State, #32 Oregon State, #34 Central Michigan*, #40 Northern Illinois, #41 Houston*, #43 Temple* (*=Newly Positive)

No Longer Positive: #29 Tennessee, #31 Kansas, #37 Virginia, #38 Florida State, #42 Michigan, #46 South Florida, #47 Arkansas, #53 Arizona State

Bottom 10: #111 UAB, #112 Illinois, #113 Eastern Michigan, #114 New Mexico State, #115 Washington State, #116 Miami (OH), #117 Tulane, #118 New Mexico, #119 Western Kentucky, #120 Rice

Conference Rating: Big East (-.460), #2 SEC (-1.175), #3 Big 12 (-4.399), #4 ACC (-8.368), #5 Big 10 (-8.684), #6 Pac-10 (-10.537), #7 Mountain West (-23.363), #8 WAC (-25.415), #9 MAC (-31.941), #10 Conference USA (-37.528), #11 Sun Belt (-39.691)

Best game of week: Texas @ Oklahoma State, 5pm PT, ABC or ESPN2

All logos taken from Sportslogos.net, and are the trademarks of their respective schools, used without permission under fair-use clause of United States copyright law. Some logos may be out of date. Use of logos for commercial purposes without consent of the respective schools is prohibited.

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 7

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NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind):

  • Begins Sunday of Week 11
  • In effect during Weeks 11-17
  • Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
  • The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:20 p.m. ET.
  • The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
  • The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:20 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
  • The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
  • Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
  • NFL schedules all games.
  • Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
  • Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and could not protect any games Week 17 in 2007. Unless I find out otherwise, I’m assuming that’s still the case this year, especially with no tentative game listed Week 17. When looking up info on what the protected games might be, I found out that games were protected after Week FIVE this year, and presumably in some of the previous years. Previously all I knew was that games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling.
  • Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.
  • A rule that may have come to light late last year but that, given its restrictiveness and lateness in coming to light, I’m having trouble accepting, is that the balance of primetime games taken from FOX and CBS can’t go beyond 22-20 one way or the other. The current tally is FOX 15, CBS 20; with tentative games, the tally is FOX 19, CBS 22. With this rule in place, Weeks 11 and 14-16 cannot be flexed away from NFC road games without making up for it in Weeks 12, 13, and 17, and even with that at least one more game would have to be flexed to an NFC road game in said weeks.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 22):

  • Tentative game: Philadelphia @ Chicago
  • Prospects: 4-2 v. 3-3. Could still keep its spot if the competitors aren’t overwhelmingly appealing, but Da Bears have to stop the slide.
  • Protected games according to this: Jets-Patriots (CBS) and Redskins-Cowboys (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Giants-Falcons is the main contender for a flex, though the Giants are in trouble, with Colts-Ravens fading and 49ers-Packers looking to be as good a game as the tentative. Look out for Chargers-Broncos as a dark horse if the Chargers keep winning and the Broncos pick up a loss or two.

Week 12 (November 29):

  • Tentative game: Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
  • Prospects: 5-2 v. 3-3, the Steelers are defending champs, and it’s a rivalry game – and the pickings are very slim otherwise. Very good chance of keeping its spot.
  • Protected games: Bears-Vikings (FOX).
  • Other possible games: It’s Thanksgiving Weekend, so there are some slim pickings for games. Colts-Texans involves two teams over .500, but it’s lopsided. Jaguars-49ers is a battle of 3-3 teams – it’s not beating Steelers-Ravens.

Week 13 (December 6):

  • Tentative game: New England @ Miami
  • Prospects: 5-2 v. 2-4. This game is becoming lopsided.
  • Protected games: Cowboys-Giants (FOX) and Titans-Colts (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Eagles-Falcons is a battle of 4-2 teams. Vikings-Cardinals might be better, at 6-1 v. 4-2 and the Favre factor, which could tip the balance in its favor for a flex. Keep an eye on Jaguars-Texans.

Week 14 (December 13):

  • Tentative game: Philadelphia @ NY Giants
  • Prospects: It’s an NFC East game (always = ratings), and it’s 5-2 v. 4-2, currently the top two spots in said division (even if the Eagles are still tied for #2). Still a pretty good shot to keep its spot – the Giants’ troubles might help it in the long run if the game would have become lopsided as opposed to potentially having the division lead on the line if the game was played today.
  • Protected games: Chargers-Cowboys (CBS) and Packers-Bears (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Bengals-Vikings, Broncos-Colts, and Saints-Falcons remain strong contenders. Broncos-Colts is still the only compelling candidate to flex away from Eagles-Giants (without a loss between them), given the NFL’s reticence to pull the flex – though with the Favre factor, Bengals-Vikings looks mighty compelling, and Saints-Falcons might be the Saints’ best chance for a loss all year.

Week 15 (December 20):

  • Tentative game: Minnesota @ Carolina
  • Prospects: Still lopsided, with the Vikings 6-1 and the Panthers 2-4. There are better chances to worship at the Favre altar the previous two weeks, against teams that are actually winning, not to mention the Giants Week 17 if that game has playoff implications.
  • Protected games: Packers-Steelers (Fox) and Bengals-Chargers (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Falcons-Jets is the best, at 4-2 @ 4-3, followed by 49ers-Eagles and Bears-Ravens. Those are mediocre enough games that Vikings-Panthers might keep its spot yet.

Week 16 (December 27)

  • Tentative game: Dallas @ Washington
  • Prospects: Lopsided at 4-2 v. 2-5, but it is the NFL’s biggest rivalry so never count out its chances of keeping the spot.
  • Protected games: Ravens-Steelers (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Broncos-Eagles and Jets-Colts, with Jaguars-Patriots a dark horse. Right now the main attraction of those games is the unbeaten Broncos and Colts playing teams with similar records to the Cowboys, so there’s nothing terribly compelling if both unbeatens lose but the games remain lopsided.

Week 17 (January 3):

  • Playoff positioning watch begins Week 9.

College Football Schedule – Week 9

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My laptop screen is cracked and between using the lab computers at school, dealing with both what to do about the laptop and setting up a new bank account, and being distracted by Twitter’s new Lists feature (more on that in a post when it goes live for everyone), I’ve been spending virtually no time at all on the college football posts. I’m taking care of the schedule now since we’re already behind a game and another game has probably already happened, so this will make the rankings obvious. With the laptop busted, I can’t post directly from Word from a school computer, so for this week only (because WordPress’ WYSIWYG editor seems to have never heard of tables) we’re going to experiment in making it look like I’ve always intended it to look and arranged it to look in Word but which always gets mangled in the final product. All times Eastern.

TOP 25 GAMES
Texas @ #16 Oklahoma State 8 PM ABC/ESPN2 Sean McDonough, Matt Millen, Holly Rowe
#2 Florida* v. Georgia 3:30 CBS Verne Lundquist, Gary Danielson, Tracy Wolfson
#3 Cincinnati @ Syracuse Noon ESPNU Clay Matvick, David Diaz-Infante
UNLV @ #5 TCU 4 PM VS. Tim Neverett, Glenn Parker, Lindsay Soto
San Jose State @ #6 Boise State 3 PM Gameplan Mark Johnson, Tom Scott, David Augusto
Indiana @ #7 Iowa Noon ESPN Mark Jones, Bob Davie
#9 Penn State @ Northwestern 4:30 ESPN Carter Blackburn, Chris Spielman
#13 USC @ #10 Oregon* 8 PM ABC/ESPN2
HD ABC only		 Brent Musberger, Kirk Herbstreit, Lisa Salters
North Carolina 20-17 #11 Virginia Tech 7:30 TH ESPN Chris Fowler, Craig James,
Jesse Palmer, Erin Andrews
Kansas State @ #12 Oklahoma 7 PM FSN Joel Meyers, Dave Lapham, Jim Knox
New Mexico State @ #14 Ohio State Noon BTN Matt Rosen, Anthony Herron
Tulane @ #15 LSU 8 PM Gameplan Doug Greengard, Rene Nadeau, Kevin Guidry
Coastal Carolina @ #17 Clemson 1:30 ESPN360 Ryan Rose, Jeremy Bloom
#18 West Virginia @ South Florida 8 PM FR ESPN2 Joe Tessitore, Rod Gilmore
#19 Georgia Tech @ Vanderbilt 7:30 CSS/CN/CST Doug Bell, Chris Doering
#20 Nebraska @ Baylor 12:30 VS. Ron Thulin, Kelly Stouffer, Lewis Johnson
Kansas @ #21 Texas Tech 3:30 ABC Ron Franklin, Ed Cunningham
Wyoming @ #23 Utah 8 PM mtn. Ari Wolfe, Blaine Fowler, Sammy Linebaugh
Washington State v. #24 Notre Dame 7:30 NBC Tom Hammond, Pat Haden, Alex Flanagan
#25 Mississippi @ Auburn Noon SEC Net Dave Neal, Andre Ware, Cara Capuano
WATCHLIST AND OTHER POSITIVE B POINT TEAMS
Rutgers @ Connecticut Noon B.E. Net Mike Gleason, John Congemi, Quint Kessenich
Miami (FL) @ Wake Forest 3:30 ABC/ESPN2
HD ABC only		 Bob Wischusen, Brian Griese
South Carolina @ Tennessee 7:30 ESPN Brad Nessler, Todd Blackledge, Erin Andrews
Utah State @ Fresno State 5 PM
UCLA @ Oregon State 4 PM
Central Michigan @ Boston College 3:30 ESPNU Todd Harris, Charles Arbuckle
Akron @ Northern Illinois Noon ESPN+ Michael Reghi, Doug Chapman
Southern Miss @ Houston 1 PM CSS Matt Stewart, Chuck Oliver, Allison Williams
Temple @ Navy 3:30 CBS CS Dave Ryan, Randy Cross
THIS WEEK’S OTHER HD GAMES
East Carolina 38-19 Memphis 8 PM TU ESPN2 Rece Davis, Mark May, Lou Holtz, Rob Stone
Purdue @ Wisconsin Noon ESPN2 Pam Ward, Ray Bentley
NC State @ Florida State Noon Raycom Steve Martin, Rick Walker, Mike Hogewood
Missouri @ Colorado 1:30 FSN Bill Land, Gary Reasons, Emily Jones
California @ Arizona State 3:30 ABC Terry Gannon, David Norrie
Michigan @ Illinois 3:30 ABC/ESPN2 Mike Patrick, Craig James
Eastern Michigan @ Arkansas 7 PM ESPNU Eric Collins, Brock Huard
Mississippi State @ Kentucky 7 PM SEC/FSN Bob Rathbun, Dave Archer, Jenn Hildreth
New Mexico @ San Diego State 7:30 CBS CS Tom Hart, Aaron Taylor
Michigan State @ Minnesota 8 PM BTN Wayne Larrivee, Chris Martin, Rebecca Haarlow
Marshall @ Central Florida 8 PM SU ESPN Dave Lamont, JC Pearson
BIG 12
Iowa State @ Texas A&M 3:30
ACC
Duke @ Virginia 3:30 ESPN360 Frank Giardina, Danny Kanell
MOUNTAIN WEST
Air Force @ Colorado State 4 PM mtn. James Bates, Todd Christensen, Roger Bailey
WAC
Hawaii @ Nevada 4 PM CSD.com Jim Leahey, Russell Yamahoa
Louisiana Tech @ Idaho 5 PM ESPN+ Trey Bender, Jay Taylor
MAC
Ohio @ Ball State Noon CSD.com
Western Michigan @ Kent State 2 PM CSD.com
Toledo @ Miami (OH) 3:30 Gameplan
CONFERENCE USA
SMU @ Tulsa 2 PM CBSCS XXL
UAB @ UTEP 3 PM CBSCS XXL
SUN BELT
Louisiana-Lafayette @ Florida International Noon CSD.com
Western Kentucky @ North Texas 4 PM CSS/CST Todd Kalas, Derek Rackley
Middle Tenn. St. @ Florida Atlantic 4 PM
Louisiana-Monroe @ Troy 7 PM CSD.com
BOWL SUBDIVISION
Arkansas State @ Louisville 3:30 SNY Drew Deener, Doug James

No strip image because this isn’t really about OOTS. And a project that should have taken three days got wrapped up with another one and has taken over a month.

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For better or worse, in the absence of any sort of paywall on the actual content and enough readers to justify a thriving ad market, most webcomics are reliant on merchandise to make money, usually T-shirts and reprint books. I may complain about the effect this has on which webcomics can be financially successful, but unless micropayments miraculously start working or webcomics can gain significant traction on a subscription model, that’s the way it is.

One of the challenges of needing to sell webcomic merchandise – and there are a lot of challenges for selling merchandise – is finding a place to sell them at. Many if not most webcomics sell merchandise through print-on-demand outfits like Cafepress, but sometimes that’s not the ideal approach, especially when production of many things gets cheaper per-order as more of them are ordered, and especially when many such places have an iffy reputation for the quality of the resulting merchandise. What’s more, print-on-demand shops are usually intended for reeeeally amateur operations – you could sell T-shirts and mugs with your kid’s random crayon drawing on it at CafePress. I’m not sure that sends the best message when Girl Genius is selling merchandise at the same site as “Billy’s T-Shirt”.

Last week Rich “Order of the Stick” Burlew announced he was opening up Ookoodook.com to sell his merchandise, instead of using, in his words, “a game manufacturer who was just doing me a favor by retailing my stuff” in APE Games, a partner in the new site. But Rich also intends the site to sell products not only from himself, but from “other independent and self-publishing creators”, and that “[w]e hope this new venture will allow us to spotlight other self-published products that you may not be aware of yet by working with their creators directly.” The site seems intended for publication of a wide variety of material, so long as it’s unlikely to sell through traditional retail channels, but it still seems fit for webcomics to take to it like a glove. If webcomics have their own ad service, why not their own store?

Ookoodook isn’t perfect – it appears you need to handle production yourself, implying your product needs to already exist, and the only other webcomic to sell merchandise on the site, Schlock Mercenary, hasn’t even advertised its existence – but I can’t help but wonder what it presages for webcomics.

Three of… well, the more interesting games of the weekend

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Interestingly, both of my lineal title games are among the more interesting games in college football this coming weekend. Florida will be facing Georgia, while USC plays Oregon in what could be an effective Pac-10 title game, even if it has minimal national title implications.

In the NFL, if, as I’ve heard, we’re now going to start seeing Miles Austin double-covered, will that mean Roy Williams will now have a chance to show Jerry Jones didn’t completely waste his money on him? (Yeah right, like the stinky Seahawks will have any effect on them.)

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 6

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NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind):

  • Begins Sunday of Week 11
  • In effect during Weeks 11-17
  • Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
  • The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:20 p.m. ET.
  • The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
  • The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:20 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
  • The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
  • Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
  • NFL schedules all games.
  • Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
  • Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and could not protect any games Week 17 in 2007. Unless I find out otherwise, I’m assuming that’s still the case this year, especially with no tentative game listed Week 17. When looking up info on what the protected games might be, I found out that games were protected after Week FIVE this year, and presumably in some of the previous years. Previously all I knew was that games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling.
  • Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.
  • A rule that may have come to light late last year but that, given its restrictiveness and lateness in coming to light, I’m having trouble accepting, is that the balance of primetime games taken from FOX and CBS can’t go beyond 22-20 one way or the other. The current tally is FOX 15, CBS 20; with tentative games, the tally is FOX 19, CBS 22. With this rule in place, Weeks 11 and 14-16 cannot be flexed away from NFC road games without making up for it in Weeks 12, 13, and 17, and even with that at least one more game would have to be flexed to an NFC road game in said weeks.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 22):

  • Tentative game: Philadelphia @ Chicago
  • Prospects: 3-2 v. 3-2, with a pretty good chance of keeping its spot.
  • Protected games according to this: Jets-Patriots (CBS) and Redskins-Cowboys (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Giants-Falcons is the main contender for a flex with Colts-Ravens fading and 49ers-Packers looking to be as good a game as the tentative.

Week 12 (November 29):

  • Tentative game: Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
  • Prospects: 4-2 v. 3-3, the Steelers are defending champs, and it’s a rivalry game – and the pickings are very slim otherwise. Very good chance of keeping its spot.
  • Protected games: Bears-Vikings (FOX).
  • Other possible games: It’s Thanksgiving Weekend, so there are some slim pickings for games. Jaguars-49ers and Colts-Texans each involve a team with the same record as the Ravens playing a team above .500, but one’s lopsided and the other has a worse average record.

Week 13 (December 6):

  • Tentative game: New England @ Miami
  • Prospects: A little mediocre at 4-2 v. 2-3, but anything can happen. PFT’s Mike Florio, which is now part of the NBC Sports site, seems to think the Dolphins are better than the 3-3 Jets and Jags.
  • Protected games: Cowboys-Giants (FOX) and Titans-Colts (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Eagles-Falcons and Vikings-Cardinals each involve a 2-loss team playing a team with a better record. Keep an eye on Jaguars-Texans.

Week 14 (December 13):

  • Tentative game: Philadelphia @ NY Giants
  • Prospects: It’s an NFC East game (always = ratings), and it’s 5-1 v. 3-2, currently the top two spots in said division (even if the Eagles are now tied for #2). Pretty good shot to keep its spot, though weaker than last week.
  • Protected games: Chargers-Cowboys (CBS) and Packers-Bears (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Bengals-Vikings, Broncos-Colts, and Saints-Falcons remain strong contenders. But even with the NFC East’s struggles last week, Broncos-Colts is currently the only compelling candidate to flex away from Eagles-Giants (without a loss between them), given the NFL’s reticence to pull the flex.

Week 15 (December 20):

  • Tentative game: Minnesota @ Carolina
  • Prospects: Still lopsided, with the Vikings 6-0 and the Panthers 2-3, and CBS’ decision not to protect Bengals-Vikings last week really hurts its chances, since this is no longer NBC’s best shot to see Brett Favre. (Though since that comes in a week with a very attractive tentative game, it’s still relevant that NBC’s other two shots are the Cardinals game Week 13 and the Giants game Week 17, the latter of which will be affected by the game’s playoff implications.)
  • Protected games: Packers-Steelers (Fox) and Bengals-Chargers (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Of the games I mentioned last week, only 49ers-Eagles didn’t see a team fall to .500 last week. Still, keep an eye on Falcons-Jets and Bears-Ravens.

Week 16 (December 27)

  • Tentative game: Dallas @ Washington
  • Prospects: Could go either way, at 3-2 v. 2-4, but it is the NFL’s biggest rivalry so its chances of keeping its spot are probably better than even. If the Redskins continue to be the Raiders Lite, though…
  • Protected games: Ravens-Steelers (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Broncos-Eagles. Jets-Colts is now mostly a dark horse, along with Jaguars-Patriots.

Week 17 (January 3):

  • Playoff positioning watch begins Week 9.

College Football Schedule – Week 8

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One game’s already underway and we’re back to a quagmire of mediocrity, so let’s get crackin’! All times Eastern.

TOP 25 GAMES

Tennessee

@

Alabama

3:30

CBS

Verne Lundquist, Gary Danielson, Tracy Wolfson

#2 Florida*

@

Mississippi State

7:30

ESPN

Brad Nessler, Todd Blackledge, Erin Andrews

Louisville

@

#3 Cincinnati

3:30

ESPNU

Todd Harris, Charles Arbuckle

#4 Texas

@

Missouri

8 PM

ABC

Brent Muberger, Kirk Herbstreit, Lisa Salters

#5 Iowa

@

Michigan State

7 PM

BTN

Wayne Larrivee, Chris Martin, Lisa Byington

#6 Boise State

@

Hawaii

8 PT

KTVB
Gameplan

Mark Johnson, Tom Scott, David Augusto (BSU)
Jim Leahey, Russell Yamaoha (HI HD)

#8 TCU

@

BYU

7:30

VS.

Joe Beninati, Glenn Parker, Tim Neverett

Texas A&M

@

#9 Texas Tech

7 PM

    

#10 Oregon*

@

Washington

3:30

ABC

Terry Gannon, David Norrie

Oregon State

@

#11 USC

8 PM

ABC

Mike Patrick, Craig James, Heather Cox

South Florida

@

#12 Pittsburgh

Noon

B.E. Net

Mike Gleason, John Congemi, Quint Kessenich

#13 Penn State

@

Michigan

3:30

ABC/ESPN

Sean McDonough, Matt Millen, Holly Rowe

#14 Oklahoma

@

#18 Kansas

3:30

ABC

Ron Franklin, Ed Cunningham

Iowa State

@

#15 Nebraska

12:30

FSN

Joel Meyers, Dave Lapham, Jim Knox

Auburn

@

#16 LSU

7:30

ESPN2

Mark Jones, Bob Davie

Minnesota

@

#17 Ohio State

Noon

ESPN

Dave Pasch, Bob Griese, Chris Spielman

#19 Clemson

@

Miami (FL)

3:30

ABC/ESPN

Bob Wischusen, Brian Griese

#22 Connecticut

@

#20 West Virginia

Noon

ESPNU

Clay Matvick, David Diaz-Infante

#25 Georgia Tech

@

#21 Virginia

Noon

Raycom

Steve Martin, Rick Walker, Mike Hogewood

Air Force

@

#23 Utah

4 PM

VS.

Ted Robinson, Anthony Herron, Lindsay Soto

UCLA

@

#24 Arizona

6:30

FSN/FCS

Steve Physioc, James Washington

WATCHLIST AND OTHER POSITIVE B POINT TEAMS

Arkansas

@

Mississippi

Noon

SEC Net

Dave Neal, Andre Ware, Cara Capuano

Oklahoma State

@

Baylor

12:30

VS.

Ron Thulin, Kelly Stouffer, Lewis Johnson

Boston College

@

Notre Dame

3:30

NBC

Tom Hammond, Pat Haden, Alex Flanagan

Vanderbilt

@

South Carolina

7 PM

ESPNU

Eric Collins, Brock Huard

Arizona State

@

Stanford

7 PT

FSN

Barry Tompkins, Petros Papadakis, Michael Eaves

Florida State

@

North Carolina

7:30 TH

ESPN

Chris Fowler, Craig James,
Jesse Palmer, Erin Andrews

Fresno State

@

New Mexico State

7 PT

ESPNU

Carter Blackburn, JC Pearson

Northern Illinois

@

Miami (OH)

1 PM

CSD.com

  

THIS WEEK’S OTHER HD GAMES

Tulsa

@

UTEP

8 PM WE

ESPN

Dave Neal, Andre Ware

Rutgers

@

Army

8 PM FR

ESPN2

Joe Tessitore, Rod Gilmore

Illinois

@

Purdue

Noon

ESPN2

Pam Ward, Ray Bentley

Indiana

@

Northwestern

Noon

BTN

Ari Wolfe, Mark Campbell, Mike Hall

Wake Forest

@

Navy

3:30

CBS CS

Craig Bolerjack, Randy Cross

Louisiana-Monroe

@

Kentucky

7 PM

FSN

Bob Rathbun, Dave Archer, Jenn Hildreth

SMU

@

Houston

7:30

CBS CS

Dave Ryan, Akbar Gbaja-Biamila

BIG 12

Colorado

@

Kansas State

12:30

FCS

Dan McLaughlin, Yogi Roth, Samantha Steele

ACC

Maryland

@

Duke

1:30

ESPN360

  

PAC-10

Washington State

@

California

4:30

    

MOUNTAIN WEST

San Diego State

@

Colorado State

4 PM

mtn.

James Bates, Todd Christensen, Roger Bailey

UNLV

@

New Mexico

8 PM

mtn.

Dan Gutowsky, Robert Griffith, Toby Christensen

WAC

Louisiana Tech

@

Utah State

3 PM

ESPN+

Trey Bender, Jay Taylor

Idaho

@

Nevada

4 PM

Gameplan

Bob Akamian, Mike Lamb

SUN BELT

Western Kentucky

@

Middle Tenn. St.

3:30

CSS/CST

Todd Kalas, Derek Rackley

North Texas

@

Troy

3:30

FCS

Sam Smith, Roger Schultz

Florida Atlantic

@

Louisiana-Lafayette

5 PM

CSD.com

  

Florida International

@

Arkansas State

7 PM

CSD.com

  

MAC

Central Michigan

@

Bowling Green

Noon

ESPN+

Michael Reghi, Doug Chapman

Ball State

@

Eastern Michigan

1 PM

CSD.com

  

Kent State

@

Ohio

2 PM

CSD.com

  

Buffalo

@

Western Michigan

2 PM

CSD.com

  

Temple

@

Toledo

7 PM

CSD.com

  

CONFERENCE USA

UAB

@

Marshall

Noon

CSS

Tom Hart, Chuck Oliver, Allison Williams

Central Florida

@

Rice

3:30

CBSCS XXL

  

Tulane

@

Southern Miss

7 PM

CSS/CST

Matt Stewart, Derrick Lewis, Sandra Golden

BOWL SUBDIVISION

Akron

@

Syracuse

3:30

SNY

Mark Lawson, Dale Drypolcher, Chris Watson

2009 College Football Rankings – Week 7

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In the Battle of Techs, G is better than V, and no one knows how good T might really be.

There were five games this week between teams in the Top 25, but the identity of two of those games depended on which rankings you were using. Texas Tech (playing Nebraska) and Arkansas (playing Florida) were ranked in the C Ratings but not in the polls. Arkansas proved they belonged in the C Ratings by keeping it close against the Fighting Tebows, but they weren’t going to move into the polls with anything less than a win. On the other hand, Texas Tech, a team even I was skeptical about, thundered into the polls with a stunning upset of Nebraska that really could change the Big 12 North calculus.

In the polls, South Carolina and Georgia Tech were ranked when their body of work maybe didn’t quite justify it. The Fighting Spurriers didn’t even give an Arkansas-like effort against Alabama (yet inexplicably remain ranked in the polls and are back in positive B Points), but G-Tech stunned V-Tech and make their way into the Top 25 of the C Ratings. The ACC’s national title hopes may be dashed, but if the two Techs can maintain their effort for the remainder of the season, perhaps they’ll finally get some credit for their parity.

And at the top? In this, the first week of the BCS standings, V-Tech’s loss firmly creates a Big Four in the C Ratings, but that’s one more than people are normally giving credit for. Texas tumbles from the top spot – and behind Cincinnati – after letting an Oklahoma team that’s now Bradford-less for good get within three, letting the SEC’s Big Two take the top two spots… but just like in the AP poll, Alabama leapfrogs Florida to take the top spot between them. Florida’s history of letting too many teams get too close for comfort finally caught up with them this week.

How the C Ratings are tabulated: First, A Ratings are tabulated by multiplying the total score ratio, which is expressed by (points-opponents’ points)/points, by the winning percentage. Score ratio minimizes the effect of running up the score. Next, B Points for each game are tabulated by (margin of victory)/(opponent’s A rating)+/-1 for wins, and -(margin of loss)/(1-opponent’s A Rating)+/-1 for losses. The “+/-” is + for road games and – for home ones. The total number of B Points is multiplied by the A Rating to get the B Rating. Conference Ratings are tabulated by averaging the B Ratings of all teams in the conference. (Independents are counted separately, and Army and Navy are counted as one conference.) Finally, the C Rating is tabulated by taking the difference between the team’s B Rating and his conference’s rating, taking a fraction of that equal to the fraction of Division I-A the conference makes up, and taking the result off the B Rating. The three ratings go A, B, C across. Click here to see the complete ratings.

1 Alabama (7-0)
SEC Leader		 .832 28.440 25.546 With Florida not quite looking like last year’s team, Alabama has long been a favorite of the people – and games like South Carolina show why. But the Tide and Gators will eventually settle it on the field – again – in Atlanta.
2 Florida (6-0)
Princeton-Yale Title		 .834 28.022 25.170 They’re still undefeated, and still hold a win over LSU, but if they keep escaping against teams like Tennessee and Arkansas it won’t bode well for the SEC Title Game – or Tebow’s repeat Heisman hopes.
3 Cincinnati (6-0)
Big East Leader		 .785 26.642 24.828 A win over then-unbeaten South Florida was good enough to put Cincinnati at #5 in the first BCS rankings – but it seems they’re still seen as way behind the Big Three, and they’re still behind Boise State. Still no respect for the Big East.
4 Texas (6-0)
Big 12 Leader		 .785 27.353 24.322 Texas is like Florida – they’ve had too many pedestrian efforts, and other than Oklahoma their best team played is a 10-point home win over Texas Tech. Might they falter somewhere along the way?
5 Iowa (7-0)
Big Ten Leader		 .682 18.556 16.179 Imagine the Cincinnati-or-Iowa debate that would ensue if Texas were to lose. Two teams from conferences so disrespected USC or even Boise State might have a case. Of course, we all know what the real answer is, but still.
6 Boise State (6-0)
Non-BCS Leader		 .783 17.582 14.604 If Utah finishing second in the polls last year didn’t show it, this year looks to be proving that the non-BCS schools are starting to gain respect, thanks to Boise’s win over Oregon. Might one such school play for the national title by 2020?
7 Virginia Tech (5-2)
ACC Leader		 .465 16.139 13.799 G-Tech not only bumped V-Tech out of national title contention, the Hokies no longer even control their own destiny in the Coastal. Now comes a bye to prepare for North Carolina.
8 TCU (6-0) .758 16.261 13.480 Annihilated Colorado State, Virginia and Clemson look better than you’d think, and I have Air Force ahead of BYU, who lost to mediocre FSU and outside OU has played crap at home. But they’re eager to prove they deserve their poll ranking.
9 Texas Tech (5-2) .511 11.729 10.260 Texas Tech’s losses are on the road to one of the top three or four teams in the country, and a one-pointer. Now they have a marquee victory and a road one. Maybe they haven’t fallen off much from last year.
10 Oregon (5-1)
Pac-10 Leader
2006 Boise State Title		 .562 10.937 9.406 Despite the week off, Oregon moves UP and maintains its Pac-10 lead. But how huge will the USC game be? So long as the Ducks don’t fall into the same trap as the Trojans…
11 USC (5-1) .611 10.659 9.151 Why do the computers have USC ranked so low? They lost to a team that’s 1-3 since and their only games against positive B-Point teams were both close (even though MoV isn’t factored into BCS computers). But OSU game is at home.
12 Pittsburgh (6-1) .603 9.131 8.484 Welcome to the polls, Panthers. Now time to prove you deserve a better ranking by beating a South Florida team that was unbeaten heading into the Cincinnati game.
13 Penn State (6-1) .689 8.715 7.240 The two major Western Pennsylvania teams are back-to-back, but shutting out Minnesota to become the 2nd-best team in the Big Ten doesn’t change the fact that the best team looks almost unbeatable. Now comes a bigger test at Michigan.
14 Oklahoma (3-3) .353 8.164 7.052 Oklahoma deserves credit for giving Texas a fight, but we now know that the team that lost to BYU and Miami (FL) was the real Oklahoma with Bradford’s college career probably dead. But can I raise the specter of OU not even going to a bowl?
15 Nebraska (4-2) .473 6.925 5.937 Nebraska lost by significantly more than Oklahoma to a worse team, but they only flip-flop spots on the way down. Fortunately, if they win all their remaining division games they can still win the Big 12 North easily, even if they lose to OU.
16 LSU (5-1) .519 6.491 5.792 Hold steady because of teams below losing, and Auburn’s loss to Kentucky means they’re not even positive any more. LSU wants to make sure the slide continues at the battle of Tigers.
17 Ohio State (5-2) .500 7.017 5.617 And down go the Buckeyes in a shocking upset to Purdue. They’re not even taking care of the small games anymore. They’ll try to bounce back against Minnesota, but it doesn’t bode well for their November tests.
18 Kansas (5-1) .595 6.291 5.366 Kansas missed an opportunity opened up by Nebraska’s loss for a relatively unhindered road to the Big 12 North (and possibly being in the national title conversation) by losing to Colorado. Now they have to face… Oklahoma. Uh-oh.
19 Clemson (3-3) .322 5.093 3.857 Back on the Top 25 after beating Wake Forest, but still no respect at 3-3. Maybe they’d get some if they beat overrated Miami (FL).
20 West Virginia (5-1) .569 3.575 3.299 Crushed admittedly-mediocre Marshall to justify being ranked in the polls and in the C Ratings, despite Auburn’s woes and only the week before at Syracuse stopping the opponent from scoring 20. But UConn is now their best foe yet.
21 Virginia (3-3) .297 3.668 2.575 The Cavs had a bad start to the season, going 0-3 with a loss to William and Mary, but they’re back on the winning track and are the only team unbeaten in ACC play. Georgia Tech, though, is out to change that.
22 Connecticut (4-2) .412 2.211 2.026 Big win over Louisville. Hopefully a win over West Virginia will convince the pollsters the Huskies are for real, even if they have to do it with heavy hearts.
23 Utah (5-1) .562 3.760 1.916 After weeks of being just out of the Top 25, the Utes make their way in after crushing UNLV. Only loss is to Oregon but Colorado State got too close for comfort and their other opponents aren’t much better. Air Force has something to prove.
24 Arizona (4-2) .387 2.587 1.753 Talk about Cardiac Cats! No one has won an Arizona game by more than five since Iowa, and the only such games they’ve won have been over Central Michigan and Northern Arizona! But if you’re going to lose significantly, lose to Iowa.
25 Georgia Tech (6-1) .514 2.720 1.722 Georgia Tech proved their poll ranking was well deserved, but still, not this high. The only FBS team they beat by double digits was North Carolina at home. If they wanna be ranked higher, they’ll need to beat a good Virginia team.

35 teams total with positive C Rating (none with negative B Rating)

Off Top 25: #28 Michigan (was #22), #29 South Florida (was #17), #30 Notre Dame (was #21), #31 Arkansas (was #20)

Watch List: #26 Mississippi, #27 Oklahoma State*, #28 Michigan, #29 South Florida, #30 Notre Dame, #31 Arkansas, #32 Miami (FL)*, #33 Oregon State, #34 Tennessee*, #35 South Carolina*

Other Positive B Ratings: #36 Arizona State*, #37 Florida State, #40 Fresno State, #43 Northern Illinois (*=Newly Positive)

No Longer Positive: #41 Auburn, #46 Stanford, #52 Duke, #77 Wake Forest

Bottom 10: #111 San Jose State, #112 Memphis, #113 Tulane, #114 New Mexico State, #115 Washington State, #116 Eastern Michigan, #117 Western Kentucky, #118 Miami (OH), #119 New Mexico, #120 Rice

Conference Rating: SEC (-.502), #2 Big East (-.566), #3 Big 12 (-2.958), #4 ACC (-7.263), #5 Big 10 (-7.379), #6 Pac-10 (-7.429), #7 Mountain West (-20.819), #8 WAC (-22.130), #9 Sun Belt (-29.910, leader #63 Troy), #10 MAC (-30.122, leader #43 Northern Illinois), #11 C-USA (-31.702, leader #47 Houston)

Best game of week: Oklahoma @ Kansas, 12:30pm PT, ABC

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Random Internet Discovery of the Week

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So I’m trying to write this as quickly as I can given my computer’s slowness and my rush to get out the door by 7:45 to catch the next part of IFC’s Monty Python documentary they’re apparently not replaying after tonight after I couldn’t finish the CFB ranks in time, and I get one of the most interesting religious RIDs yet. If you want to have something to steal for your describe-a-religion project for religious studies or world cultures class learn more about world religions, here’s the place to go!