The realignment wheel keeps on turning…

I have to say, I’m disappointed and a little confused to hear of TCU’s move to the Big East, a move that effectively ends any chance of changing or breaking the hegemony of the Big Six conferences over college football. Admittedly, adding Boise State isn’t quite an equal trade-off for losing Utah and BYU, but a conference with both TCU and Boise State wouldn’t fall that far from the Mountain West’s former heights. The timing of the announcement is especially auspicious considering how soon it came after Nevada’s upset win over Boise, suggesting another program approaching the same level was moving to the Mountain West with the Broncos.

I understand why the Big East gets out of the deal – access to the fertile recruiting grounds of Texas – but I’m having a hard time understanding what TCU gets, especially having to travel so far to play all their games in all sports. Sure, they join an AQ conference (as has for some reason become the new Orwellian term for what we used to call “BCS conferences”), but what does that really mean? All it really means is an automatic trip to a BCS bowl if they win the conference, which I guess is kinda a good thing, but it’s de facto the same thing they were getting in the Mountain West, only there going undefeated was a prerequisite. The Big East is, to put it bluntly, the laughingstock of the BCS conferences. While there have been years when it’s been strong and even a year or two when it’s produced national championship contenders, there have been far too many years like this one, when it’s struggled to get even a single team in the Top 25. TCU is probably as likely to go undefeated in the Big East as they were in the Mountain West, and more importantly, as likely to play for a national championship, that is, hardly. Pollsters are a bit smarter than they’re given credit for, and don’t automatically value “BCS conferences”, but rather particular conferences like the SEC perceived to have more good teams.

And while the Big East does get a foothold in Texas, the conference as a whole is becoming increasingly unwieldy – already stretched thin at 16 teams, it now just gets ridiculous at 17, pushed even further towards a split of the football and non-football schools at the same time that prospect becomes increasingly unlikely with the football side adding a team that’s Christian but not Catholic while encouraging Villanova to jump up to FBS (straight to a BCS conference, even!) for no other reason than it’s already associated with the conference. Sure, they recently won ONE FCS championship, but still, who wants to bet Villanova will prove to be as bad a fit in the Big East football conference as Temple was? I’m getting increasingly despondent at the after-effects of the ongoing realignment and the Franken-conferences it’s producing in the non-BCS; apparently the WAC’s big idea for saving itself after losing three of its best teams is to add the likes of… drum roll please… Texas State! (On the plus side, with so many FCS teams moving up to FBS, it creates more room for the NCAA to add more pointless bowl games, after raising the specter of a 5-7 bowl team with this year’s additions!)

The big loser in this is Boise State. Boise thought they were creating a non-BCS superconference with too many good teams for the BCS to ignore and not give AQ status to, and they might have had the Big 12 not stopped Texas from bolting to the Pac-10. Now they find themselves in a situation not that different from where they were in the WAC, especially with rumors the Mountain West was considering adding Hawaii, a situation basically equivalent to the WAC adding Air Force – only with arguably a worse TV contract, especially if the Mountain West sticks to form and shoves its few known-before-the-season marquee games to CBS College Sports or the mtn., but that’s an entirely different rant. Had they known this would happen, they might have just stayed in the WAC.

But what makes Boise’s situation even worse, as well as the situation of all the other non-BCS schools and BCS opponents, is that (not counting BYU) they are now the only non-BCS school that matters. The plight of the non-BCS schools has effectively been reset to the status quo before 2005. Undefeated non-BCS schools may still go to BCS bowl games, but they will likely be fewer in number and, except for Boise themselves, treated much like Hawaii in 2007, not as legitimate national championship contenders; don’t expect any non-BCS team to be in the preseason polls ever again. Boise probably knows this and is chomping at the bit to leave the Mountain West for likely independence at the next opportunity, unless that experiment fails for BYU. Without the pressure from the non-BCS schools, there will be much less pressure for a playoff and the BCS status quo could last for far longer than its opponents have heretofore anticipated.

Unless, of course, TCU going undefeated in the Big East but passed over for the national championship by a 1-loss team from a better conference creates more pressure for a playoff than ever before…but it may be more likely that the BCS simply pushes TCU through, no matter how weak, and simply closes its ears to the complaints from the increasingly empty non-BCS room.

Last-Minute Remarks on SNF Week 14 Picks

Week 14 (December 12):

  • Tentative game: Philadelphia @ Dallas
  • Prospects: 7-4 v. 3-8. The Cowboys’ hard charge stalling against the Saints probably doomed this game to be flexed out.
  • Protected games: Patriots-Bears (CBS).
  • Other possible games mentioned on last week’s Watch and their records: Bucs (7-4)-Redskins (5-6), Jags (6-5)-Raiders (5-6), and Chiefs (7-4)-Chargers (6-5).
  • Impact of Monday Night Football: None.
  • Analysis: I said last week that Chiefs-Chargers was the sexiest game and that a Chargers win would lock up another Sunday night date; not only did that happen, if lopsidedness wasn’t a factor everything would have broken down perfectly for Chiefs-Chargers, with the Chiefs also winning and the Eagles, Cowboys, Bucs, Redskins, Jags, and Raiders all losing, with the end result that Chiefs-Chargers now sports the best pair of records among unprotected games and in fact is the only such game involving two teams above .500. The Chiefs aren’t a name team, but part of the point of flex scheduling is to give more exposure to teams you might not have picked before the season. (Although… have I been ignoring Dolphins-Jets? It would max the Jets out but Bills-Jets will probably be unimportant… the bigger problem is how lopsided it is…)
  • Final prediction: Kansas City Chiefs @ San Diego Chargers (with the caveat in parenthesis above).

2010 College Football Rankings – Week 12

On the eve of a huge Friday of college football, there’s a new in the C Ratings. Boise State is the beneficiary of TCU not playing last week, but they should increase their lead after playing #16 Nevada while TCU plays lowly New Mexico.

Oregon didn’t slip for their idle hands, but #7 Auburn fell hard, falling behind #5 Stanford and #6 Oklahoma, resulting in Bedlam for the Big 12 South title slightly outpacing the Iron Bowl for Game of the Week. Auburn may have to beat down on #9 Alabama to justify the respect the BCS is giving the SEC. If a one-loss SEC team goes to the National Title Game ahead of an unbeaten team from a non-BCS conference I’ll just put my head in my hands. The SEC is the best conference top-to-bottom, but its best teams haven’t been as dominating as you would like.

Other notes on this week’s C Ratings:

  • #10 Virginia Tech breaks into the Top 10 after completing their road to the division title. Given the record of ACC teams, expect them to get a very good seed in the Golden Bowl Tournament.
  • #11 Wisconsin is looking better, but #4 Ohio State still looks like a worldbeater, even if every non-BCS team in the country now hates their guts.
  • #12 Nebraska and #13 Missouri are once again back-to-back in the ratings. The game that made the difference in the North is likely making the difference in the ratings as well.
  • #14 Arkansas is actually ahead of overrated #17 LSU. Expect them to prove they deserve it. #15 South Carolina could have a trap game against a Clemson team in positive B Points.
  • #18 Navy is off until the Army game.
  • V-Tech has locked up one division, but ACC Madness continues in the other. The Atlantic basically comes down to the #19 NC State-Maryland game, even though Maryland now has three conference losses and #23 Florida State has finished its conference schedule, heading into the Florida game, with two.
  • #20 West Virginia has the highest rating for a Big East team this season, but they’re a long shot to win the Big East even if they beat rivals Pittsburgh.
  • Congratulations to #21 Texas A&M for winning the Lone Star Showdown (not yet reflected in the rankings) for the first time in forever, and reminding us all why this used to be the Southwest Conference’s premier rivalry.
  • The Land Grant Trophy game may be the best of the early games on Saturday. #22 Michigan State hopes to win the Big Ten by beating a decent Penn State team and rooting for rival Michigan. Iowa now finds itself just barely outside the Top 25.
  • Finally, #24 Notre Dame breaks into positive B Points – and the Top 25 – after beating up on Army in Yankee Stadium, and #25 Arizona is going to be a bit of a long shot to upset Oregon.

Best game of week: #6 Oklahoma @ #8 Oklahoma State, Saturday 8pm ET, ABC
Complete C Ratings

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 11

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind):

  • Begins Sunday of Week 11
  • In effect during Weeks 11-17
  • Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
  • The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:20 p.m. ET.
  • The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
  • The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:20 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
  • The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
  • Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
  • NFL schedules all games.
  • Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
  • Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling, but are now protected after Week 5.
  • Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. At this writing, no team is completely tapped out at any measure, although the Jets have five primetime appearances and can’t be flexed out of any of them, which is a problem since five other teams also have five primetime appearances and can be flexed out of them. (So naturally this turned into the Year of Parity!) A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.
  • A rule that may have come to light late 2008 but that, given its restrictiveness and lateness in coming to light, I’m having trouble accepting, is that the balance of primetime games taken from FOX and CBS can’t go beyond 22-20 one way or the other. The current tally is FOX 18, CBS 17; with tentative games, the tally is FOX 21, CBS 20. With this rule in place, Weeks 12, 13, and 16 cannot be flexed away from AFC road games without making up for it in Weeks 11, 14, 15, and 17.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 21):

  • Selected game: NY Giants @ Philadelphia.

Week 12 (November 28):

  • Selected game: San Diego @ Indianapolis.

Week 13 (December 5):

  • Selected game: Pittsburgh @ Baltimore.

Week 14 (December 12):

  • Tentative game: Philadelphia @ Dallas
  • Prospects: 7-3 v. 3-7; time will tell if the Cowboys are starting a Chargers-esque hard charge. An NFC East game always = ratings, and this is NBC’s only shot at a Cowboys game during the flex scheduling period, but they need to go on a historic tear with Garrett at the helm to have a shot at the playoffs. If the Cowboys beat the Saints, they’ll have proven their bona fides, and the NFL may want to hedge their bets and keep the game; 4-7 is a little questionable, but the NFL has kept tentative games with losing teams before, and the Cowboys would be the ultimate losing team in primetime. It would still be a 6-game gap at best but it could very well be four by game time. The presence of Michael Vick should help too. Everything depends on the Thanksgiving day game; a Cowboys win and this will probably be kept (especially with an Eagles loss); a loss and it’ll certainly be flexed. But look at the alternatives…
  • Protected games: Patriots-Bears (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Bucs-Redskins is the best game at 7-3 v. 5-5; Jags-Raiders and Chiefs-Chargers are worse at 6-4 v. 5-5. A big reason for the NFL to make the flex would be to move from a Fox to a CBS game, possibly allowing the reverse to happen in other weeks.
  • Analysis: Chiefs-Chargers is the sexiest game; the Chargers having five primetime appearances isn’t a factor, as the NFL is probably chomping at the bit to flex out of Chargers-Bengals later and Chargers-Broncos seems an unlikely Week 17 flex. Despite the better pair of records, Bucs-Redskins has to overcome skepticism about the Bucs, the appeal of the Fox-to-CBS flex, and the fact it’s a little lopsided. Despite big-time playoff implications, Jags-Raiders has to overcome people not being used to the Raiders being good and the Jags not being a name team. If San Diego wins this Sunday night it would probably lock up another Sunday night date if the Cowboys lose (especially if the Chiefs lose and create a tie in the division); if they lose, it puts the brakes on their hard charge, but might not eliminate Chiefs-Chargers if other 5-5 teams lose.

Week 15 (December 19):

  • Tentative game: Green Bay @ New England
  • Prospects: 8-2 v. 7-3, a potential Super Bowl preview. Expect it to keep its spot.
  • Protected games: Jets-Patriots (CBS) and Eagles-Giants (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Saints-Ravens at 7-3 v. 7-3 is the only serious flex candidate but even it has to be considered a long shot. Jags-Colts at 6-4 v. 6-4 is also strong, and Falcons-Seahawks is a dark horse.

Week 16 (December 26)

  • Tentative game: San Diego @ Cincinnati
  • Prospects: 5-5 v. 2-8; it looks like the T.Ocho experiment isn’t working out, meaning the Chargers’ late-season surge is only serving to make this game lopsided, especially since the Bengals could be eliminated from the playoffs this weekend. (ESPN’s “Mike and Mike in the Morning” even pointed out on Tuesday how flex-worthy this game is! But as we’ll see, if they looked at the alternatives, they might start scratching their heads…)
  • Protected games: Jets-Bears (CBS) and Giants-Packers (FOX).
  • Other possible games: The only alternatives involve teams at .500. With the NFC Worst’s weakness, Seahawks-Bucs at 7-3 v. 5-5 has a legitimate shot at having the most playoff implications. Redskins-Jaguars is improving and has the same pair of records as Chiefs-Titans and Colts-Raiders. Colts-Raiders seems most likely, but it would max the Colts out, and Titans-Colts Week 17 could be important. We’ll wait and see how things shake out, I guess.

Week 17 (January 3 Playoff Positioning Watch):

AFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION LEADERS WILD CARD WAITING IN THE WINGS (5-5)
SOUTH
46-4
58-2
6-4
WEST
36-4
67-3
5-5
NORTH
27-3
6-4
7-3
EAST
18-2
8-2
  • AFC East (Bills-Jets, Dolphins-Patriots): Jets and Patriots are tied for the division lead, with the Dolphins three back. The Bills are hanging on tiebreakers.
  • AFC North (Steelers-Browns, Bengals-Ravens): It’s basically a two-horse race between the Ravens and Steelers, with the Browns four back and the Bengals five back.
  • AFC South (Titans-Colts, Jags-Texans): Jags and Colts tied for the lead, Titans a game back, Texans two back.
  • AFC West (Raiders-Chiefs, Chargers-Broncos): Chiefs lead, Chargers and Raiders a game back, Broncos three back but very much alive.
  • AFC Wild Card: The East and North losers would get the nod if the season ended today, with the Colts on the outside looking in. The Dolphins, Titans, Raiders, and Chargers are waiting in the wings. Today, Titans-Colts and Raiders-Chiefs are appealing games with the losers likely not to make the playoffs, with Dolphins-Patriots moving up.
NFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION LEADERS WILD CARD WAITING IN THE WINGS (5-5)
WEST
45-5
57-3
4-6
NORTH
37-3
67-3
7-3
EAST
27-3
7-3
6-4 6-4
SOUTH
18-2
2 tied at 7-3
  • NFC East (Giants-Redskins, Cowboys-Eagles): Eagles lead, Giants a game back, Redskins two back, Cowboys four back.
  • NFC North (Bears-Packers, Vikings-Lions): Bears and Packers lead with the Vikings four games back and the Lions a game behind that. Despite the “it’s over for the Vikings” meme, they’re as alive as the Cowboys are.
  • NFC South (Panthers-Falcons, Bucs-Saints): Falcons lead, Saints and Bucs a game back, Panthers officially eliminated from the division (but not the wild card).
  • NFC West (Rams-Seahawks, Cardinals-49ers): Seahawks lead, Rams a game back, Cardinals and Niners two back.
  • NFC Wild Card: The Saints, Bucs, and North loser are all at 7-3; the Giants are on the outside looking in; the Redskins are two games behind them. The NFC Playoff Picture, outside the West, clarified fast this week with only three teams at .500 at above likely to miss the playoffs, so expect little protest at the NFC Worst winner getting in (home field is a different story). Keep an eye on Rams-Seahawks, Bucs-Saints, Bears-Packers, and Giants-Redskins. With no one leading a division by more than a game in either conference, and only four divisions not tied, NBC could have no shortage of good choices Week 17.

Why I’m not heaping praise on Jimmie Johnson

Another year has come and gone, and with it another year of Jimmie Johnson winning the Chase for the Sprint Cup.

Oh, it was tougher this year, but it’s now five straight, two more consecutive Sprint Cup championships than any other driver in NASCAR history. And with it has come another round of NASCAR pundits telling us to respect Jimmie Johnson as one of the all-time greats. And why aren’t we respecting Jimmie Johnson? Apparently, because we just want someone else to win. I still seem to be the only one (admittedly, not very vocal about it) who wonders if the change in format to the Chase system – instituted just two years before the start of the streak – means Johnson’s championships aren’t directly comparable to the Cale Yarboroughs and Richard Pettys and Dale Earnhardts. In the past, I’ve wondered if Johnson’s dominance wasn’t the result of NASCAR booking an unbalanced selection of Chase tracks that virtually assured Johnson’s victory every year, but it’s hard to make that case (though Wikipedia tries). You have regular ovals, short tracks, even Talladega Superspeedway (though not a road course).

But the ESPN commentators said something on Sunday that gave me an epiphany. It’s not the Chase tracks. It’s the Chase itself.

The ESPN commentators said something about how grueling the NASCAR season is and how tough it is to maintain that consistency over the course of the year, and to keep up that consistency for year after year after year. Yes, we should congratulate Jimmie Johnson for maintaining his consistency over the 36 races of the NASCAR season… except NASCAR has effectively shortened its season to 10 races! All Johnson has to do is be good enough to be one of the top 12 drivers over the first 26 races, not a particularly high bar (though admittedly he’s the only one to make every Chase), and only be the best over the course of the last 10 races.

It’s incredible. At the start of the 20th century, no sport in the United States had a playoff system as such. It wasn’t until the 40s, 50s, and 60s that most sports started developing the multi-round playoff structures we’re familiar with today. Now we’re shoehorning playoffs into sports they can’t possibly fit, where everyone competes in every event. NASCAR and golf wanted to attract the casual sports fan who’s familiar with the playoff systems of the traditional Big Four professional sports and college basketball – the fans of what they used to deride as “stick-and-ball sports”. They made their deal with the devil. But did they really want to?

Get a good look at your future, NASCAR fans. You can write off Jimmie Johnson’s dominance with “well, he’s just that good” now. But in a few years, even decades, once Jimmie Johnson has fallen off and retired, will you start to see multi-year dynasties become the norm in NASCAR? Will four- or five-year runs at the top become passe? Will the past, when it took a truly great driver just to repeat, give way to a future where the list of champions looks more and more like its own past entries, and where at the very least Cale Yarborough’s three-peat starts being disrespected? Which future do NASCAR fans want to live in?

If you want to avert that future, I don’t know what NASCAR should do. I don’t think it was a mistake for the PGA TOUR to introduce its own points system in imitation of the Chase – before the FedExCup it didn’t have a season championship to speak of – and frankly the TOUR’s “Playoffs” has so few events that inconsistency in the winners is more likely than in the Chase. Probably the solution is to go back to the old system where there was no cutoff and no points reset; every race was the same as every other race in terms of determining the champion – or maybe just have a restrictive cutoff without a reset. Or if it really wants to have a “playoff”, perhaps NASCAR should institute a “championship race” of just 10-20 drivers, with no qualifying session and start order determined on points or wins (with the other category as a tiebreaker), that rotates from track to track every year, and the winner of that race is automatically your Sprint Cup Champion.

But if NASCAR really wants to attract the casual fan, they may be doomed to failure for this simple reason: While Jimmie Johnson was winning his fifth title in dramatic fashion, more people were watching the Vikings and the Packers. As long as the Sprint Cup Championship is crowned in the midst of football season, it will always seem anticlimactic.

2010 College Football Rankings – Week 11

The top six in the C Ratings remain the same as last week; TCU had too big a lead to be terribly affected by Utah’s loss to Notre Dame. So instead, let’s talk about the chaotic Big Ten race, where I think I actually heard one person on ESPN (I think it was Kirk Herbstreit… I’d say it was on BCS Countdown but I don’t think I watched it this week… was it on PTI?) call #4 Ohio State the best team in the Big Ten if not one of the best in the country. The bandwagon is gaining steam, folks!

Of course, for them to have a chance at even a BCS bowl they probably need #14 Wisconsin to lose, so did the Badgers earn the respect the BCS has been giving them with the way they racked up 83 points on Indiana? Well… not really. As I’ve said in the past, the C Ratings have two curbs on running up the score in the A and B Ratings. Wisconsin didn’t get the benefit in the B Ratings because Indiana sucks (A Rating = .176), and they didn’t get the benefit in the A Ratings because they allowed 20 points. The real margin of victory was 63, which is still impressive if sometimes matched by other guarantee games, but those other guarantee games have scores of 63-0, not 83-20. So the score ratio Wisconsin got was only (63/83)=.759, which translates into the A Rating calculation as .8795, impressive but not overly so, and even the relatively minor A Rating can’t budge much this late. Wisconsin’s A Rating only went from .602 to .627, and while its C Rating more than doubled, the gaps between teams increase in the upper echelons of the ratings, so the Badgers only moved up three spots.

Other notes on this week’s C Ratings:

  • #7 Oklahoma nestles right up behind #6 Oklahoma State, setting up a potentially huge Bedlam game for the Big 12 South title, thanks to a squash of 5-5 Texas Tech. #9 Nebraska gives the Big 12 three Top 10 representatives, actually a step down for them, as they put themselves three scores ahead of Kansas by only a point in the final Kansas-Nebraska Act game. #8 Stanford takes a step down with a tight pull-out against Arizona State.
  • I have to rant a little about margin of victory, since the BCS’ prohibition of it in the computer rankings has finally come back to the forefront. We can be so concerned with running up the score that we can ignore that just the possibility of running up the score shows how great you are. Not factoring in margin of victory means the BCS can look the other way with teams that beat good teams but have trouble beating teams they should beat easily. Last year Iowa beat Northern Iowa and Penn State by similar scores. This year #15 LSU is putting on a whole new spin on success. It’s not the BCS’ fault they could have grabbed the SEC West title ahead of #10 Alabama if #5 Auburn lost out, including to the Tide – that’s not anyone’s fault unless you want to come up with entirely new schema for conference titles – but it is the BCS’ fault that they’re 5th and could have gone to the BCS Title Game, ahead of TCU and Boise State teams everyone agrees should be given a chance, if they had won the SEC Title Game. (Although picking them ahead of Bama for the Sugar Bowl is a whole other issue.) Auburn and #17 South Carolina isn’t as big as some recent SEC Title Games, but it’s still probably the biggest game of championship week.
  • ACC Madness! Two down, one to go, and #11 Virginia Tech has reached the point where they would need to lose to Virginia too to not go to the ACC Title Game. I’d love to see them play a BCS at-large in the Orange Bowl, but they’ll probably be fed a minnow champion from the good but full-of-too-much-parity Big East (the magic 8-ball has come up “yes, #23 West Virginia can play in the Top 25 this week”) that could come down to a mess of tiebreakers (a five-way tie isn’t a possibility but a three-way tie is), and we’ll have yet another year of no one caring about the Orange Bowl. Meanwhile, #22 NC State is the only team in the Atlantic in the Top 25, and control their own destiny if they win out. Maryland, though, is a must-win no matter who wins between Florida State and Maryland this week or even if the Pack lose to their rivals (though if the Pack do lose they’re certainly rooting for Maryland).
  • This is really a holding pattern week before the big games next week. Besides the Iron Bowl, and the game that could decide who goes to the Cotton Bowl between LSU and #12 Arkansas (don’t be surprised if the Hogs win), there will also be the big game between #13 Nevada and Boise State.
  • #16 Missouri got back on the winning track against Kansas State, but with #24 Texas A&M the only other Big 12 team in the Top 25 that isn’t in the Top 20, and Nebraska needing two losses to lose the North, what exactly are the Tigers playing for? A&M was propelled by a huge win over a good Baylor team and now gets a huge game with Nebraska, but Missouri shouldn’t get its hopes up. Nebraska’s other remaining opponent is lowly Colorado, in both teams’ final Big 12 regular-season game.
  • There is one reason that would be sufficient to explain why I keep considering changing the C Rating formula: independents. Notre Dame is a team in negative B Points just sitting there in the middle of a number of teams in positive B Points because their C Rating isn’t depressed by other teams in their conference with lower ratings. #18 Navy has its ratings depressed by being in the “military conference” with Army, but Army is on the first page this year as well. Navy is still good, with only three losses, and their B Rating would still be sufficient for the Top 25, but still, they have three losses despite Air Force being the only team they’ve played in positive B Points.
  • Do you think the Big Ten is happy they don’t have any more of these chaotic conference title races after this year? #20 Iowa isn’t even involved with two conference losses and they beat one of the teams, #19 Michigan State, that’s just a spot ahead of them.
  • Arizona tumbles off the Top 25 (but just barely; there’s still a huge gap to Oregon State at #49) so #21 USC is the last Pac-10 team on the Top 25. (Actually, now that I think about it, even if USC were disqualified the C Ratings would still have three Pac-10 teams, just a different three…)

Best game of week: #4 Ohio State @ #20 Iowa, 3:30pm ET, ABC
Complete C Ratings

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 10

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind):

  • Begins Sunday of Week 11
  • In effect during Weeks 11-17
  • Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
  • The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:20 p.m. ET.
  • The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
  • The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:20 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
  • The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
  • Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
  • NFL schedules all games.
  • Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
  • Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling, but are now protected after Week 5.
  • Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. At this writing, no team is completely tapped out at any measure, although the Jets have five primetime appearances and can’t be flexed out of any of them, which is a problem since five other teams also have five primetime appearances and can be flexed out of them. (So naturally this turned into the Year of Parity!) A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.
  • A rule that may have come to light late 2008 but that, given its restrictiveness and lateness in coming to light, I’m having trouble accepting, is that the balance of primetime games taken from FOX and CBS can’t go beyond 22-20 one way or the other. The current tally is FOX 18, CBS 17; with tentative games, the tally is FOX 21, CBS 20. With this rule in place, Weeks 12, 13, and 16 cannot be flexed away from AFC road games without making up for it in Weeks 11, 14, 15, and 17.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 21):

  • Selected game: NY Giants @ Philadelphia.

Week 12 (November 28):

  • Selected game: San Diego @ Indianapolis. (With Eagles-Bears the Fox late game instead of Packers-Falcons for some reason…)

Week 13 (December 5):

  • Tentative game: Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
  • Prospects: 6-3 v. 6-3, probably deciding the AFC North. Extremely good chance of keeping its spot.
  • Protected games: Cowboys-Colts (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Falcons-Bucs at the moment is the only serious flex candidate at 7-2 v. 6-3, and the perfect storm it could need to pass Steelers-Ravens may be brewing; based on records, it’s actually now a better game, but it still needs help (see below). Redskins-Giants and Rams-Cardinals are out. Jags-Titans and Raiders-Chargers don’t involve any teams above 5-4, so they can’t pass Falcons-Bucs.
  • Analysis: Falcons-Bucs needs to overcome the NFL’s tentative-game bias, the fact that people don’t trust the Bucs, and how obvious a big playoff-determining game Steelers-Ravens is. All that means they probably need to both win and the Steelers and Ravens need to both lose, and the Steelers and Ravens are both playing weak teams. But if all that happens, it becomes 8-2 v. 7-3, as opposed to a game at 6-4 v. 6-4, and the Steelers and Ravens might not be fighting for a first-round bye anymore, and people may start wondering if they’re starting to collapse, and the NFL may start wondering if they’re showing a stinker. Even then, though, it would be the equivalent of Cowboys-Vikings on Fox earlier in the season, except with the Ravens being a smaller-name team. I don’t want to make an early prediction after the perfect storm was played to perfection this week, but the cincher may be that it would be moving from a CBS game to a Fox game, same as last week.
  • Final prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens (no change).

Week 14 (December 12):

  • Tentative game: Philadelphia @ Dallas
  • Prospects: 6-3 v. 2-7; time will tell if the Cowboys are starting a Chargers-esque hard charge. An NFC East game always = ratings, and this is NBC’s only shot at a Cowboys game during the flex scheduling period, but they need to go on a historic tear with Garrett at the helm to have a shot; even then its only shot at keeping its spot may be if it’s the game Romo comes back in, and that probably won’t be known 12 days in advance. No matter how hard a charge they make, they’d be 5-7 by the time the NFL would have to make the flex decision, still a little lopsided unless the Eagles collapse. On the other hand, look at the alternatives…
  • Protected games: Patriots-Bears (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Jags-Raiders is the only game involving nothing but teams above .500… and it’s 5-4 v. 5-4. Bucs-Redskins and Rams-Saints are both 6-3 v. 4-5; Chiefs-Chargers is worse at 5-4 v. 4-5, but its prospects may be the strongest if the Chargers continue their annual hard charge (they could even lead the division by the time comes to make the flex). A lot depends upon what those .500 teams do, but this could have a pretty good chance of moving from a Fox to a CBS game, possibly allowing the reverse to happen in other weeks.

Week 15 (December 19):

  • Tentative game: Green Bay @ New England
  • Prospects: 7-2 v. 6-3, a potential Super Bowl preview. Extremely good chance to keep its spot.
  • Protected games: Jets-Patriots (CBS) and Eagles-Giants (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Saints-Ravens at 6-3 v. 6-3 is the only serious flex candidate but even it has to be considered a long shot. Jags-Colts and Falcons-Seahawks are also options, while Texans-Titans and Chiefs-Rams fading.

Week 16 (December 26)

  • Tentative game: San Diego @ Cincinnati
  • Prospects: 2-7 v. 4-5; it looks like the T.Ocho experiment isn’t working out, meaning the Chargers’ late-season surge will only serve to make this game lopsided, especially since, even if the Bengals go on a run of their own, they can’t break past the Ravens and Steelers.
  • Protected games: Jets-Bears (CBS) and Giants-Packers (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Chiefs-Titans, Colts-Raiders, and Seahawks-Bucs all involve two teams above .500. Redskins-Jaguars is a big dark horse and came within a hail mary of being almost completely out this week. Colts-Raiders seems most likely, but it would max the Colts out, and Titans-Colts Week 17 could be important. We’ll wait and see how things shake out, I guess.

Week 17 (January 3 Playoff Positioning Watch):

AFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION LEADERS WILD CARD WAITING IN THE WINGS (4-5)
WEST
45-4
57-2
5-4
SOUTH
36-3
66-3
2 tied at 5-4
NORTH
26-3
5-4
6-3 5-4
EAST
17-2
5-4
7-2 5-4
  • I’m tweaking the format of the Playoff Positioning Watch this year to take advantage of the NFL scheduling all divisional matchups Week 17. Next to each division is that division’s Week 17 matchups in parenthesis.
  • AFC East (Bills-Jets, Dolphins-Patriots): Jets and Patriots are tied for the division lead, with the Dolphins two back. The Bills are still alive… barely.
  • AFC North (Steelers-Browns, Bengals-Ravens): It’s basically a two-horse race between the Ravens and Steelers, with the Browns three back and the Bengals four back.
  • AFC South (Titans-Colts, Jags-Texans): Colts lead, Titans and Jags a game back, Texans two back.
  • AFC West (Raiders-Chiefs, Chargers-Broncos): Raiders and Chiefs tied for the division lead, Chargers a game back, Broncos another game behind that.
  • AFC Wild Card: The East and North losers would get the nod if the season ended today, with the West loser, Dolphins, Titans, and Jags a game back. The Chargers and Texans are waiting in the wings. Today, Titans-Colts and Raiders-Chiefs are appealing games with the losers likely not to make the playoffs, with Dolphins-Patriots and Jags-Texans moving up.
NFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION LEADERS WILD CARD WAITING IN THE WINGS (4-5)
WEST
45-4
56-3
4-5
NORTH
36-3
66-3
6-3
EAST
26-3
6-3
6-3 6-3
SOUTH
17-2
2 tied at 6-3
  • NFC East (Giants-Redskins, Cowboys-Eagles): Giants and Eagles tied for the lead, Redskins two back, Cowboys four back.
  • NFC North (Bears-Packers, Vikings-Lions): Bears and Packers lead with the Vikings three games back and the Lions a game behind that.
  • NFC South (Panthers-Falcons, Bucs-Saints): Falcons lead, Saints and Bucs a game back, ignore the Panthers.
  • NFC West (Rams-Seahawks, Cardinals-49ers): Seahawks lead, Rams a game back, Cardinals and Niners two back.
  • NFC Wild Card: The Saints, Bucs, and losers of the East and North are all at 6-3; the Rams and Redskins are two games behind them. Wide open, with only the Lions, Cowboys, and Panthers more than three games out of the playoffs in the NFC. Keep an eye on Rams-Seahawks, Bucs-Saints, Bears-Packers, and Giants-Redskins. With no one leading a division by more than a game in either conference, and only three divisions not tied, NBC could have no shortage of good choices Week 17.

Last-Minute Remarks on SNF Week 12 Picks

Week 12 (November 28):

  • Tentative game: San Diego @ Indianapolis
  • Prospects: 6-3 v. 4-5; the Chargers’ win over the Texans potentially put the NFL in a difficult situation. They had a bye this week, so they couldn’t make it back to .500, but they’re close enough, and have enough upward momentum that history suggests will continue, that the NFL will have to weigh its tentative game bias against the present iffy state of the game and the strength of the alternatives. 6-3 v. 4-5 still isn’t so lopsided to rule the game out.
  • Protected games: Eagles-Bears (FOX) and Jags-Giants (CBS).
  • Other possible games mentioned on last week’s Watch and their records: Titans (5-4)-Texans (4-5), Chiefs (5-4)-Seahawks (5-4), Packers (6-3)-Falcons (7-2), and Bucs (6-3)-Ravens (6-3).
  • Impact of Monday Night Football: None.
  • Analysis: I said last week that the best situation for Colts-Chargers left Packers-Falcons at 6-3 v. 6-3 and Colts-Chargers at 6-3 v. 4-5, but that the same situation could very easily coincide with Bucs-Ravens being 6-3 v. 7-2, but even then Packers-Falcons could get the nod based on name teams and people’s general feeling that the Bucs are beneficiaries of a weak schedule. I felt the Ravens needed to win on Thursday night to have any shot at the flex at all. Not only did that not happen, it’s now very difficult for the NFL to pass up a battle between two teams that might be the best two in the NFC. Worth noting that both of these would be moves from a CBS game to a Fox game, with a Fox-to-CBS move unlikely in the remaining weeks to force Week 17 to go to a CBS game, and Green Bay would be maxed out on NBC appearances with Packers-Patriots unlikely to be flexed out, and a potential huge Week 17 game with the Bears. Would the NFL keep a 6-3 v. 4-5 game with a 6-3 v. 7-2 game available of this caliber? One need only look to this same week, and this same Colts-Chargers game, two years ago. But 7-2 wasn’t the best record in the league then…
  • Final prediction: Indianapolis Colts @ San Diego Chargers (no change), but a flex would not surprise me one iota. (Lack of announcement is probably to see if Eagles-Bears at 5-3 v. 6-3 is worthy of Fox late game vis-a-vis Bucs-Ravens, which may be a good sign for flexing in Packers-Falcons.)

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 9

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind):

  • Begins Sunday of Week 11
  • In effect during Weeks 11-17
  • Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
  • The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:20 p.m. ET.
  • The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
  • The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:20 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
  • The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
  • Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
  • NFL schedules all games.
  • Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
  • Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling, but are now protected after Week 5.
  • Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. At this writing, no team is completely tapped out at any measure, although the Jets have five primetime appearances and can’t be flexed out of any of them, which is a problem since five other teams also have five primetime appearances and can be flexed out of them. (So naturally this turned into the Year of Parity!) A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.
  • A rule that may have come to light late 2008 but that, given its restrictiveness and lateness in coming to light, I’m having trouble accepting, is that the balance of primetime games taken from FOX and CBS can’t go beyond 22-20 one way or the other. The current tally is FOX 18, CBS 17; with tentative games, the tally is FOX 21, CBS 20. With this rule in place, Weeks 12, 13, and 16 cannot be flexed away from AFC road games without making up for it in Weeks 11, 14, 15, and 17.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 21):

  • Selected game: NY Giants @ Philadelphia.

Week 12 (November 28):

  • Tentative game: San Diego @ Indianapolis
  • Prospects: 5-3 v. 4-5; the Chargers’ win over the Texans potentially puts the NFL in a difficult situation, and the Eagles may have granted the Chargers’ prayers. They have a bye this week, so they can’t make it back to .500, but they’re close enough, and have enough upward momentum that history suggests will continue, that the NFL will have to weigh its tentative game bias against the present iffy state of the game and the strength of the alternatives. 6-3 v. 4-5 still isn’t so lopsided to rule the game out.
  • Protected games: Eagles-Bears (FOX) and Jags-Giants (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Thanksgiving Weekend usually means a paucity of good games, but sadly for Colts-Chargers, not this year, especially with the Cowboys’ struggles. The good news for Colts-Chargers is that Titans-Texans and Chiefs-Seahawks both went to 5-3 v. 4-4; the bad news is that still has a chance to beat the tentative, and Packers-Falcons at 6-3 v. 6-2 and Bucs-Ravens at 5-3 v. 6-2 remain very strong.
  • Analysis: Packers-Falcons is the key game; all of the alternatives involve iffy markets, so the Packers’ name-team status bolsters its status as a battle of six-win teams. The Packers have a bye week like the Chargers, so the games that will play the biggest role for determining the flex are Bengals-Colts and the Thursday night Ravens-Falcons game; also keep an eye on Panthers-Bucs. The best situation for Colts-Chargers leaves Packers-Falcons at 6-3 v. 6-3 and Colts-Chargers at 6-3 v. 4-5, so if the NFL sticks with Colts-Chargers it will be because of the tentative-game bias and feeling that the Chargers are on their annual hard charge. On the other hand, the same situation could very easily coincide with Bucs-Ravens being 6-3 v. 7-2, but even then Packers-Falcons could get the nod based on name teams and people’s general feeling that the Bucs are beneficiaries of a weak schedule; needless to say, the Ravens need to win on Thursday night to have any shot for the flex at all. Worth noting that both of these would be moves from a CBS game to a Fox game, with a Fox-to-CBS move unlikely in the remaining weeks to force Week 17 to go to a CBS game, and Green Bay would be maxed out on NBC appearances with Packers-Patriots unlikely to be flexed out, and a potential huge Week 17 game with the Bears. Still, can the NFL really keep a 5-4 v. 4-5 game with a 6-3 v. 7-2 game available (from either of these games)?

Week 13 (December 5):

  • Tentative game: Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
  • Prospects: 6-2 v. 6-2, probably deciding the AFC North. Extremely good chance of keeping its spot.
  • Protected games: Cowboys-Colts (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Falcons-Bucs at the moment is the only serious flex candidate at 6-2 v. 5-3, but even it could need a perfect storm, like the Steelers and Ravens going on losing streaks the next two weeks. Redskins-Giants, Jags-Titans, and Rams-Cardinals all involve 4-4 teams. Raiders-Chargers is an emerging, but massive, long shot.

Week 14 (December 12):

  • Tentative game: Philadelphia @ Dallas
  • Prospects: 5-3 v. 1-7; an NFC East game always = ratings, but the Cowboys’ struggles are becoming hard to watch. This is NBC’s only shot at a Cowboys game during the flex scheduling period, but they need to go on a historic tear with Garrett at the helm to have a shot; even then its only shot at keeping its spot may be if it’s the game Romo comes back in, and that probably won’t be known 12 days in advance. On the other hand, look at the alternatives…
  • Protected games: Patriots-Bears (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Bucs-Redskins, Rams-Saints, and Jags-Raiders all involve teams at .500, but they’re the best games you have. A lot depends upon what those .500 teams do, but I’m not optimistic about the Jags. Is Chiefs-Chargers worth pinning your hopes on?

Week 15 (December 19):

  • Tentative game: Green Bay @ New England
  • Prospects: 6-2 v. 6-3, a potential Super Bowl preview. Extremely good chance to keep its spot.
  • Protected games: Jets-Patriots (CBS) and Eagles-Giants (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Saints-Ravens now has an identical pair of records; it’s the only serious flex candidate but even it has to be considered a long shot. Jags-Colts, Texans-Titans, Falcons-Seahawks, and Chiefs-Rams are dark horses.

Week 16 (December 26)

  • Tentative game: San Diego @ Cincinnati
  • Prospects: 2-6 v. 4-5; it looks like the T.Ocho experiment isn’t working out, meaning the Chargers’ late-season surge will only serve to make this game lopsided, especially since, even if the Bengals go on a run of their own, they can’t break past the Ravens and Steelers.
  • Protected games: Jets-Bears (CBS) and Giants-Packers (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Chiefs-Titans and Colts-Raiders both involve two teams above .500. Seahawks-Bucs and Redskins-Jaguars are dark horses. Colts-Raiders seems most likely, but it would max the Colts out, and Titans-Colts Week 17 could be important. We’ll wait and see how things shake out, I guess, but it could affect whether Colts-Chargers Week 12 gets flexed out.

Week 17 (January 3 Playoff Positioning Watch):

AFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION LEADERS WILD CARD WAITING IN THE WINGS
SOUTH
45-3
56-2 4-4
5-3 4-4
WEST
35-3
66-2 4-4
5-4 4-5
EAST
26-2
5-3
6-2 5-4
NORTH
16-2
6-2
  • I’m tweaking the format of the Playoff Positioning Watch this year to take advantage of the NFL scheduling all divisional matchups Week 17. Next to each division is that division’s Week 17 matchups in parenthesis.
  • AFC East (Bills-Jets, Dolphins-Patriots): Jets and Patriots are tied for the division lead, with the Dolphins two back. The Bills could be reduced to tiebreakers this week.
  • AFC North (Steelers-Browns, Bengals-Ravens): It’s basically a two-horse race between the Ravens and Steelers, with the Browns three back and the Bengals four back.
  • AFC South (Titans-Colts, Jags-Texans): Titans and Colts tied for the division lead with the Jags and Texans a game back.
  • AFC West (Raiders-Chiefs, Chargers-Broncos): Chiefs lead, Raiders a half-game back, Chargers another game behind that, Broncos another game-and-a-half behind that.
  • AFC Wild Card: The East and North losers would get the nod if the season ended today, with the South loser a game back and the Raiders a half-game behind that. The Dolphins, Jags, and Texans are waiting in the wings, with the Chargers a half-game behind them. Today, Titans-Colts and Raiders-Chiefs are appealing games with the losers likely not to make the playoffs, with Dolphins-Patriots and Jags-Texans long shots.
NFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION LEADERS WILD CARD WAITING IN THE WINGS (3-5)
WEST
44-4
56-3
4-4
NORTH
36-3
65-3
5-3
SOUTH
26-2
5-3
6-3 5-3
EAST
16-2
4-4
5-3 4-4
  • NFC East (Giants-Redskins, Cowboys-Eagles): Giants lead, Eagles a game back, Redskins a game behind that, Cowboys not worth mentioning.
  • NFC North (Bears-Packers, Vikings-Lions): Packers lead, Bears a half-game back, Vikings two games behind that, Lions a game behind that.
  • NFC South (Panthers-Falcons, Bucs-Saints): Falcons lead, Saints a half-game back, Bucs a half-game behind that, ignore the Panthers.
  • NFC West (Rams-Seahawks, Cardinals-49ers): Rams and Seahawks tied for the division lead, with the Cardinals a game back and the Niners a game behind that.
  • NFC Wild Card: Saints and either the Bears, Eagles, or Bucs would get the nod if the season ended today, with the Redskins and, believe it or not, the West loser a game back, and the Vikings and Cardinals a game behind that. Wide open, with only the Lions, Cowboys, and Panthers more than three games out of the playoffs in the NFC. Keep an eye on Rams-Seahawks, Bucs-Saints, Bears-Packers, and Giants-Redskins. With no one leading a division by more than a game in either conference, NBC could have no shortage of good choices Week 17.

2010 College Football Rankings – Week 10

A TCU-#2 Boise State national championship game?

That’s what the C Ratings seem to be suggesting. TCU was already ; beating up on #13 Utah just means they’re building an insurmountable lead. But Boise State beat up on a good Hawaii team, while Oregon beat up on a Washington team that will probably not deliver Jake Locker to a bowl.

The difference in strength of schedule means the C Ratings are vouching for the battle of non-BCS teams. We’ll probably get #5 Auburn-Oregon instead, of course, but TCU and Boise have proven their bona fides over the course of the season. Boise is still haunted by V-Tech’s loss to James Madison, but the loss coming to a I-AA school isn’t really affected in V-Tech’s ratings, let alone Boise’s, but that is a very tough nut to crack while continuing to use Access to calculate the ratings. Both TCU and Boise have beaten enough good teams to show they deserve a shot – and TCU, at least, looks likely to get one if one of the BCS unbeatens loses.

Does it help TCU’s case to see the most likely 1-loss team in the way, #10 Alabama, go down to #15 LSU? Not necessarily: now people are suggesting Auburn itself could go to the BCS Title Game with one loss. But if that happens, the wailing and gnashing of teeth could reach a whole new level. (And meanwhile, #4 Ohio State continues plugging along, hoping for a #17 Wisconsin loss…)

Other notes on this week’s C Ratings:

  • #6 Oklahoma State catapults up the ratings, benefitting from #9 Oklahoma’s loss and #8 Nebraska’s OT win to become the Big 12 leader, and likely South representative in the title game. A national championship trip seems a long shot, but like Ohio State, they are top ten in the BCS.
  • From what I understand, if Oregon plays in the BCS Title Game the Rose Bowl HAS to select TCU or Boise, not #7 Stanford. Someone else getting screwed by the BCS rules! The one year it’s not an Illinois… On the other hand, Stanford has a pretty good shot of going to my simulated Golden Bowl Playoffs as an at-large.
  • #11 Nevada is knocking on the door of the top 10. The six-point loss to Hawaii will keep them out of BCS bowl contention; take that away, and I would be arguing that if they beat Boise State, they should be considered at least as much in the national championship consideration as Boise was.
  • How the mighty have fallen! Losing to Nebraska was one thing, but losing to lowly Texas Tech? It wasn’t too long ago that #14 Missouri was in the thick of the national championship consideration, but now they’d need Nebraska to really collapse to get more than a trip to a mid-pack bowl. And if they want to get their season back on track, they need to do it against a K-State team ranked in the BCS (but not in positive B Points). Fortunately, they’re still unbeaten at home.
  • As I mentioned last week, all that matters to #25 South Carolina in terms of clinching the division is winning the Spurrier Bowl this week. #16 Arkansas, on the other hand, is mired in the SEC West where Auburn, Alabama, and LSU reign – but the loss to Alabama was very tight. With LSU at home still to come in the schedule, an LSU team that’s the top one-loss team in the BCS but only one spot ahead of the Hogs in the C Ratings because of the BCS’ no-MoV rule, look for Arkansas to potentially pull the upset there, establishing themselves as the third-best team in the West. Meanwhile, #22 Florida returns to the BCS and now outrates South Carolina in the C Ratings…
  • When it looks at the C Ratings, must #18 Iowa be cursing itself for its one-point loss to Wisconsin? You know Ohio State must be cursing it, because that was the best chance for a Wisconsin loss all year, aside from the actual loss to #20 Michigan State.
  • #19 Arizona takes a tumble after the Stanford loss, and #23 USC falls out of the top 20 for the first time all year.
  • #21 Navy is at one of the highest positions in the C Ratings I’ve ever seen from them. Give the credit to demolishing an East Carolina team that knows how to work the score ratio. Also note that two of their losses are to good teams and they beat Notre Dame pretty handily as well.
  • Other than #12 Virginia Tech, #24 NC State is the only other ACC team in the Top 25 – and NC State just lost to Clemson! Nonetheless, both teams control their own destiny to the ACC Title Game, since NC State beat Florida State and still has Maryland on the schedule. V-Tech cleared the first hurdle and now just needs to win two of the remaining three.
  • Once again, the Top 25 is deserted of Big East teams, though both Pitt and West Virginia are just barely on the outside looking in. Right behind them is Oregon State – what would it say about TCU and Boise if they were to enter the Top 25? Texas A&M’s upset of Oklahoma has them ranked in the BCS, but it’s not quite enough to crack the top 25 of the C Ratings.

Best game of week: San Diego State @ TCU, 4pm ET, VS.
Complete C Ratings