NFL Schedule: Week 8

Here’s the schedule, finally, mere hours before the games begin. A lot fewer ties in the RCS rankings this week. For the record, I updated the lineal title page for the Packers’ bye a little over 24 hours before this post.

What is the Median Expected Score?

Away MXS Home Time (ET) TV DTV Announcers NTR SIRIUS Notes
Away Home
#T3(5-2) 30½-17 #30(0-6) Sun 1:00 PM 709 Chris Myers, Tim Ryan, Jennifer Hale 91 138 Can the Saints light up the scoreboard against a winless team two weeks in a row?
#31(0-6) 16-26 #10(4-2) Sun 1:00 PM 705 Greg Gumbel, Dan Dierdorf CMP 136 86 Dysfunctional Dolphins just try to survive their second trip to the New Met.
#25(2-5) 15½-25 #11(4-3) Sun 1:00 PM 704 Marv Albert, Rich Gannon 112 92 Can the Jaguars maintain the momentum of the Ravens upset against the division leaders?
#29(1-5) 15¼-27¾ #6(4-2) Sun 1:00 PM 707 Sam Rosen, Brian Billick, Laura Okmin WW1 137 93 The Ravens need to recover from the Monday night debacle; will the floundering Cards help?
#27(1-6) 21½-25 #23(2-5) Sun 1:00 PM 708 Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston, Tony Siragusa 113 94 Two teams looking to pick up their disappointing seasons.
#32(0-7) 17½-26 #22(3-3) Sun 1:00 PM 706 Kevin Harlan, Solomon Wilcots USA 117 85 Manning-less Colts could be just what the doctor ordered after that devastating loss to Houston.
#7(5-2) 22¼-19¼ #26(2-4) Sun 4:05 PM 711 Dick Stockton, John Lynch, Jamie Maggio 135 92 Will the Lions defense give Tim Tebow a rude awakening?
#21(3-3) 20¼-25¼ #8(4-2) Sun 4:05 PM 710 Thom Brennaman, Troy Aikman, Pam Oliver CMP 134 93 The Redskins try not to lose their season in Toronto.
#14(4-2) 19½-18 #28(2-4) Sun 4:15 PM 714 Bill Macatee, Steve Tasker USA 112 94 The Bengals are quietly impressive. But how much of it is playing teams like the Hawks?
#2(5-1) 27½-25 #5(5-2) Sun 4:15 PM 712 Jim Nantz, Phil Simms WW1 91 86 Showdown between possibly the two best teams in the AFC – now and the past few years.
#24(3-3) 14¾-23¾ #T3(5-1) Sun 4:15 PM 713 Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts 113 85 Are the Niners really this good? Well, they should have no trouble with the Browns.
#16(3-3) 22¾-25¾ #19(2-4) Sun 8:20 PM Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya WW1 92 93 Divisional showdown between two teams fighting for playoff relevancy.
#9(4-2) 23½-20½ #20(3-3) Mon 8:30 PM Mike Tirico, Jon Gruden, Ron Jaworski, Suzy Kolber WW1 92 93 If the Chiefs want to get back on track, they’d better get past the class of the division.

Bye:

2011 College Football Rankings – Week 8

I take back what I said about all full rankings coming in PDF form from now on. My laptop is incredibly slow at calculating the rankings. Even the super-slow school computers are faster. If I have to calculate the rankings at home, I’ll use the computer I’ve used from the start that only creates RTFs (unless I can get a bunch of programs closed, but I’m skeptical that’ll help).

After last weekend’s upsets, the national championship picture is starting to clear up. Barring upsets, there will be a national semifinal next week in primetime. Their opponent? Stanford, then either Boise State or a one-loss team. Oklahoma State and our other lineal title holders may have something to say about that, but most people expect the Big 12 teams and Oregon to lose (Kansas State potentially this weekend) and the ACC and Big East to be disrespected.

How the C Ratings are tabulated: First, A Ratings are tabulated by multiplying the total score ratio, which is expressed by (points-opponents’ points)/points, by the winning percentage. Score ratio minimizes the effect of running up the score. Next, B Points for each game are tabulated by (margin of victory)/(opponent’s A rating)+/-1 for wins, and -(margin of loss)/(1-opponent’s A Rating)+/-1 for losses. The “+/-” is + for road games and – for home ones. The total number of B Points is multiplied by the A Rating to get the B Rating. Finally, the C Rating is tabulated by taking one-tenth the difference between the team’s B Rating and the average of his opponents’ B Ratings and taking the result off the B Rating. The three ratings go A, B, C across. Click here to see the complete ratings.

1 Alabama SEC BCS Title
8-0 LW: A Rat: .907 B Rating: 52.786 C Rating: 46.078 AP: 2 BCS: 2
Alabama showed the teams below them who’s boss with a huge blowout of Tennessee. Now they get a week to prepare for the showdown with LSU.
2 LSU SEC #2 ’06 Boise St.
8-0 LW: #2 A Rat: .852 B Rating: 46.800 C Rating: 41.451 AP: 1 BCS: 1
Huge win over an overrated Auburn team, but they will need the week off before the trip to Tuscaloosa.
3 Stanford P12 BCS Title
7-0 LW: #5 A Rat: .868 B Rating: 40.987 C Rating: 34.271 AP: 4 BCS: 6
“Won’t go away easily” my ass! Blowout over the Huskies plus big upsets means the Cardinal are now in national championship position.
4 Boise State MWC BCS Title
7-0 LW: #3 A Rat: .796 B Rating: 38.385 C Rating: 33.063 AP: 5 BCS: 4
Not the most impressive performance against Air Force. They’ll want to get their practice licks in against UNLV, because the TCU game is huge.
5 Oklahoma B12 BCS Title
6-1 LW: #4 A Rat: .646 B Rating: 28.949 C Rating: 24.346 AP: 11 BCS: 9
Losing to mediocre Texas Tech at home certainly looks bad, but I always say never to overreact to a single loss, especially by a field goal. You thought they were that good, they can’t be that bad now.
6 Oklahoma State B12 #2 BCS Title
7-0 LW: #7 A Rat: .709 B Rating: 27.169 C Rating: 23.106 AP: 3 BCS: 3
I don’t think anyone really thinks Oklahoma State is really this good. But they do keep impressing with a huge win over a decent Missouri team.
7 Wisconsin B10 BCS Title
6-1 LW: #6 A Rat: .718 B Rating: 25.048 C Rating: 20.074 AP: 12 BCS: 15
See what I said about Oklahoma, with the added element that Michigan State is substantially better than Texas Tech. Now comes a not-as-big-as-it-could-be clash with Ohio State.
8 Oregon P12 #2 ’09 Boise St.
6-1 LW: #9 A Rat: .652 B Rating: 20.947 C Rating: 17.981 AP: 7 BCS: 7
Impressive blowout over Colorado. But now they get progressively better opponents in the Washington schools.
9 Clemson ACC Prncton/Yale
8-0 LW: #8 A Rat: .708 B Rating: 19.883 C Rating: 16.197 AP: 6 BCS: 5
Fairly tight game against an only-decent North Carolina team. But G-Tech is the best opponent they’ve faced so far.
10 Houston USA BCS Bowl
7-0 LW: #15 A Rat: .736 B Rating: 14.737 C Rating: 10.372 AP: 18 BCS: 17
Marshall is pretty bad, but Houston put on a show, and combine that with losses by other teams and it’s another five-spot jump for the Cougars.
11 Texas A&M B12 #3 Big 12 Title
5-2 LW: #11 A Rat: .483 B Rating: 12.896 C Rating: 10.275 AP: 16 BCS: 16
Big win over Iowa State, but Missouri will be substantially tougher.
12 Michigan B10 #2 BCS Title
6-1 LW: #10 A Rat: .637 B Rating: 12.586 C Rating: 9.728 AP: 17 BCS: 18
Drop for idle hands made worse by opponents not doing their best. Now Purdue serves as a warm-up for Iowa.
13 Penn State B10 #3 Big 10 Title
7-1 LW: #17 A Rat: .602 B Rating: 9.118 C Rating: 7.420 AP: 21 BCS: 19
Not sure why a modest ten-point win over mediocre Northwestern results in such a big jump in the C Ratings and AP Poll – other teams losing don’t explain it all. But now to justify it against Illinois.
14 South Carolina SEC #3 SEC Title
6-1 LW: #20 A Rat: .569 B Rating: 9.241 C Rating: 6.870 AP: 14 BCS: 13
Despite idle hands, big wins by their opponents (Vandy over Army, Kentucky over a I-AA team that doesn’t matter for A Rating purposes) send them rocketing up the ratings. Now to justify it against Tennessee.
15 Virginia Tech ACC #2 Big 12 Title
7-1 LW: #14 A Rat: .597 B Rating: 9.078 C Rating: 6.785 AP: 15 BCS: 12
Followed the big win over Wake Forest with a blowout over BC. Now a trip to Duke ahead of an important showdown with Georgia Tech.
16 Southern Miss USA #2 C-USA Title
6-1 LW: #27 A Rat: .600 B Rating: 8.372 C Rating: 5.403 Coaches: 25
Is C-USA better than you think? A blowout win over SMU have people noticing the Golden Eagles have only a single tight loss with some pretty big wins. How big could the title game be?
17 Toledo MAC MAC Title
5-3 LW: #18 A Rat: .384 B Rating: 6.961 C Rating: 5.318
Big win over Miami (OH). Will a Tuesday night nationally televised win over Northern Illinois cause the pollsters to take notice?
18 Kansas State B12 #4 2010 TCU
7-0 LW: #23 A Rat: .684 B Rating: 7.929 C Rating: 5.286 AP: 10 BCS: 8
Huge win over their rivals in their first game in the Top 25. But who wants to bet the Sooners will own them?
19 Arizona State P12 #3 Pac-12 Title
5-2 LW: #21 A Rat: .444 B Rating: 4.848 C Rating: 4.081 AP: 23 BCS: 21
Teams losing (and opponents winning) mean the Sun Devils move up despite idle hands, and with woeful Colorado coming to the desert, they could move up substantially.
20 Notre Dame   Bowl Elgblty
4-3 LW: #12 A Rat: .337 B Rating: 5.120 C Rating: 4.003
We were already rating the Golden Domers far higher than most people, and after being blown out by USC this looks all the more dubious. But when they look good they look very good, and they’ll have a chance to look good against Navy.
21 Nebraska B10 #4 Big 10 Title
6-1 LW: #13 A Rat: .566 B Rating: 5.801 C Rating: 3.590 AP: 13 BCS: 14
Nebraska slips substantially despite winning! But a blowout of a godawful Minnesota team doesn’t outweigh the first-loss effect on Wisconsin.
22 USC P12 #4 Probation
6-1 LW: #35 A Rat: .542 B Rating: 4.918 C Rating: 3.099 AP: 20 SBNBlog: 21
If the Trojans are this good with nothing to play for and most of the upperclassmen having departed when the sanctions came down, imagine how good they’ll be next year! BCS or bust for the Trojans next year! Could they upset Stanford?
23 Rutgers BST Big East Title
5-2 LW: #22 A Rat: .452 B Rating: 3.290 C Rating: 2.325
The Knights can’t slip too much losing by only two. If they beat a West Virginia team still ranked in the polls, it’ll more than make up for it.
24 Georgia SEC #4 SEC Title
5-2 LW: #26 A Rat: .469 B Rating: 2.074 C Rating: 1.907 AP: 22 BCS: 22
The Bulldogs didn’t play last week, but other teams losing put them in the top 25, just in time for the World’s Largest Cocktail Party – which they have the edge in for once.
25 Arkansas SEC #5 SEC Title
6-1 LW: #25 A Rat: .572 B Rating: 4.434 C Rating: 1.794 AP: 8 BCS: 10
Nice modest win over Ole Miss, better than some other teams did. Beat Vanderbilt to keep pace in the West.


29 teams total with positive C Rating (none with negative B Rating)

Off Top 25: #27 TCU (was #24), #30 Georgia Tech (was #19), #32 West Virginia (was #16)

Watch List: #26 Miami (FL), #27 TCU, #28 Florida State, #29 Michigan State, #30 Georgia Tech, #31 Syracuse*

Other Positive B Ratings: #35 Temple, #37 Iowa, #42 Ohio (*=Newly Positive)

No Longer Positive: #32 West Virginia, #33 Washington, #41 Missouri, #44 Utah State, #45 Texas, #57 Northern Illinois

Bottom 10: #111 Colorado, #112 Idaho, #113 Buffalo, #114 UNLV, #115 Akron, #116 UAB, #117 Florida Atlantic, #118 Tulane, #119 Memphis, #120 New Mexico

Best game of week: Oklahoma @ Kansas State, 12:30pm PT, ESPN

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 7

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For Weeks 10-15, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it contradicts the above – and the page it comes from, for that matter):

  • Begins Sunday of Week 11
  • In effect during Weeks 11-17
  • Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
  • The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
  • The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
  • The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
  • The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
  • Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
  • NFL schedules all games.
  • Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
  • Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling, but are now protected after Week 5; however, they are back to Week 4 this year, probably for the same reason as that first year: NBC hosting a Christmas night game and the other games being moved to Saturday.
  • Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. At this writing, no team is completely tapped out at any measure; five teams have five primetime appearances each, but all of them have at least one game that can be flexed out. A list of all teams’ primetime appearances is in my first two posts for Weeks 4 and 5.
  • Last year’s selection of primetime games was weighted rather heavily towards Fox games. This year, the selection currently leans CBS 22, FOX 20 (though if I miscounted one game it may be even). My guess is that the balance will continue to lean towards the AFC. Weeks 10, 12, 13, and 15 are all CBS games, while Weeks 11 and 14 are FOX.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 10 (November 13):

  • Tentative game: New England @ NY Jets
  • Prospects: 5-1 v. 4-3; this is becoming one of the hottest rivalries in the AFC, but who are the Jets? Still, this is now a battle of two teams with winning records, rare for tentatives this year.
  • Protected games according to the506: Saints-Falcons (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Giants-49ers (4-2 v. 5-1), Lions-Bears (5-2 v. 4-3), Texans-Bucs (4-3 v. 4-3), Steelers-Bengals (5-2 v. 4-2), Bills-Cowboys (4-2 v. 3-3).
  • Analysis: Giants-Niners is the best game, but the Niners aren’t a name team, which could kill their ability to overcome the tentative game bias – 5-2 v. 6-1 is hard to pass up, but can it overcome a 5-2 v. 4-3 tentative? Steelers-Bengals may have even more to overcome, and Lions-Bears, while an attractive NFC North matchup, can’t do better than 6-2 v. 4-3, a half-game better than the worst Pats-Jets can do.
  • Final prediction: New England Patriots @ New York Jets (no change).

Week 11 (November 20):

  • Tentative game: Philadelphia @ NY Giants
  • Prospects: 4-2 v. 2-4. If the not-so-Dream Team continues to be a nightmare, this has a pretty good chance to be flexed out, despite the NFC East factor.
  • Protected games: Cowboys-Redskins (FOX) and Chargers-Bears (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Bucs-Packers is good but lopsided, Bengals-Ravens features a team people don’t trust to be as good as 4-2, and Titans-Falcons has the worst of both worlds. Right now, the tentative is likely to stay put.

Week 12 (November 17):

  • Tentative game: Pittsburgh @ Kansas City
  • Prospects: 5-2 v. 3-3. Time will tell if the Chiefs are about to rally from their disastrous start. It might not take much for this game to keep its spot.
  • Protected games: Patriots-Eagles (CBS) and Bears-Raiders (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Thanksgiving weekend, paucity of good games (Packers-Lions is an especially bad loss). Bills-Jets and Bucs-Titans are the only good options, with Bengals-Browns a dark horse and Broncos-Chargers possible based on Tim Tebow’s performance. After the protections, NBC isn’t left with very attractive matchups in terms of drawing power.

Week 13 (December 4):

  • Tentative game: Indianapolis @ New England
  • Prospects: It’s the Colts and the Patriots, the NFL’s biggest current rivalry! …What’s that? Peyton Manning’s injured and the Colts are 0-7 and got blown out 62-0 their last time on Sunday night, causing football to lose to another sport in the ratings for the first time in forever? Yeeeeah, this is getting flexed out unless Manning comes back before then, and even then this would have to be the very game he comes back, which probably won’t be known two weeks in advance.
  • Protected games: Jets-Redskins (CBS) and Packers-Giants (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Lions-Saints has the early lead; Bengals-Steelers, Falcons-Texans, and Chiefs-Bears are also options, and Ravens-Browns and Titans-Bills are dark horses.

Week 14 (December 11):

  • Tentative game: NY Giants @ Dallas
  • Prospects: NFC East clash, with both teams moderately good and the division lead potentially on the line. A flex isn’t out of the realm of possibility, but one or both teams would have to completely collapse and the other game would have to sweep the NFL off its feet. Combine that with a paucity of NFC road games, and no wonder Fox left this week unprotected.
  • Protected games: Patriots-Redskins (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Bills-Chargers, Raiders-Packers, Saints-Titans, Texans-Bengals. Chiefs-Jets is a dark horse, and Bears-Broncos could become an interloper if Tim Tebow does well.

Week 15 (December 18):

  • Tentative game: Baltimore @ San Diego
  • Prospects: Not NBC’s biggest-name late-season matchup, but possibly the best record-wise, a battle of 4-2 teams when no other tentative has more than one team better than 4-3. Good chance to keep its spot.
  • Protected games: Jets-Eagles (CBS) and Redskins-Giants (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Lions-Raiders. That’s it. Yeah, Packers-Chiefs is a dark horse, but I’d say Ravens-Chargers is keeping its spot.

Week 17 (January 1):

  • Playoff positioning watch begins Week 9.

On the other hand, um, Doc Scratch playing everyone is a shocking development? Um, didn’t we know that already?

(From MS Paint Adventures: Homestuck. Click for full-sized replacement curtains.)

Sixteen months ago, Homestuck, the current installment of MS Paint Adventures, started its fifth act. Thirteen months ago, it started the second act of that fifth act. Two months ago, MSPA went completely silent as Andrew Hussie worked on the flash to end the act, and just shy of the one-year anniversary of the start of Act 5-2, released a few extra, contentless pages to tide people over. To put all of that in perspective, Homestuck has only been going on for two and a half years, so Act 5 has taken up over half its lifespan, and Act 5-2 has come pretty close. What’s more, Act 5 has done more than that to make Homestuck what it is; it was Act 5-1 that gave us a proper introduction to the trolls, who practically define Homestuck‘s appeal at this point.

And now, after all that time, it has finally come to an end.

The end of such a momentous period in the “comic’s” history should be with a bang, and on this Hussie more than delivered, with a Flash animation so long (13 minutes) it had to be hosted on Newgrounds (which it then proceeded to crash when first uploaded), starts with a card that divides it into seven parts, can be paused (something that hasn’t happened for any previous flash), comes with its own modified site design, and eventually spills over to cover up its own title. Hussie has said in the past that he intended to keep pushing the envelope with what he could do with Homestuck, constantly trying to make it bigger, better, more spectacular, and this seems to be the sort of thing he was talking about. Rose and alternate-Vriska’s fights with Noir were originally going to be an epic Flash animation, but it took so long to put together the idea was scrapped in favor of starting the Scratch interlude early; I almost feel like this animation would feel less jarring if that animation had come to fruition. The only previous flash that would come close was the flash at the end of Act 4, and that was a long time ago.

Leading up to the flash, Hussie published a series of pages depicting Jade and Noir watching the Courtyard Droll touching down near their location and setting off a Barbasol bomb. (Turns out, stealing John’s dad’s wallet from the Wayward Vagabond without his ring or the Tumor inside was just as planned after all!) The frog tadpole they were with fell into some lava, and Jade fell to the ground, dead. Noir’s reaction is, in some sense, the culmination of a plot thread that hasn’t even been running that long. We only got a real look at Noir’s post-omnipotence mindset back in February, when we learned of his boredom with nothing to do except kill and his frustration with the dog-like thoughts Bec’s prototyping left him with, including loyalty and love towards Jade. So he tried to get his underlings to kill Jade for him. But during the Scratch interlude, he went as far as following Jade around everywhere (which did give him the opportunity to stomp on a lot of frogs), and now he gets upset and ultimately kills the Droll off-screen for following his own orders to the letter.

Noir then starts trying to destroy the universe, leaves Jade on a Quest Bed, and takes off to hide in the frog temple, where he proceeds to kill most of the Exiles. The Aimless Renegade does manage to destroy the vessels they arrived in, but gets killed before he destroys the one the Wayward Vagabond is in, though not to save his life as Noir simply pops in and rips out the uranium in his belly. Then – by all appearances – the circumstances under which Noir entered the trolls’ session prove to be very different from what most people anticipated, as Noir appears to simply put the uranium in its place and up and leave the Vagabond’s vessel, and pops up in the trolls’ session. This leaves a number of questions unanswered, foremost among them why Noir showed up in the trolls’ session, and how he showed up through what the trolls called a Scratch.

The now god-tiered Jade – whose dog ears suggest she still has everything her dreamself inherited when she was used to prototype her sprite, meaning she now has the powers of Bec plus god-tier powers and the knowledge of a Sprite, and (presumably) the omniscience that comes with combining the powers of Bec with a sentient being like Jade that Doc Scratch has shown – proceeds to shrink down and juggle the Battlefield and all four planets, keeping a promise to save all the denizens, as well as retrieve John after he completes the Scratch (which actually starts the Beat Mesa headed towards Skaia), and then forms a rectangle with her fingers, which forms a fenstrated wall that flashes images from an earlier, relatively more innocent time in the comic (the first time, surprisingly enough, I’ve ever felt the comic’s flashes were of lower image quality than its static or animated images), and at the very end of the flash, she takes the ship which John and herself are on, and literally breaks through the fourth wall, with the last image of the flash, displayed by the wall, being the very first page of the comic. (I’m a little surprised the flash doesn’t contain an Easter egg linking back to that first page; several of the normal interface links at the top do, but that seems like a bug.)

This leaves plausible a whole mess of implausible theories, including previously suggested ones, about John and Jade’s ultimate destination and Hussie’s “one yard” of direct influence (apparently shaking the life out of Scratch and creating the opportunity for Aradia’s ancestor’s attempted escape doesn’t count), including one I once read on TV Tropes that suggested they would literally land in Hussie’s back yard. More likely however, John and Jade will simply burst through the two fourth walls Hussie set up one yard apart, and likely end up somewhere near the comic’s beginning.

I also suspect we haven’t gotten the whole story as to why Noir feels “exiled” or “tricked” into the trolls’ session. The interpretation most directly suggested by the flash is that it’s a result of his shame at god-tiering Jade, but we had earlier been told that Noir destroyed the trolls’ Prospit, Derse, and all the planets to prevent the mistakes leading to his banishment; I don’t see any “outsmarting” of Noir going on that would have led to his banishment as depicted, or even anything that Noir’s biased perspective would construe as “outsmarting”; everything he does to enter the trolls’ session, he does of his own volition. That tells me either Hussie made a mistake trying to misdirect the audience, or I’ll be writing another post on it down the line. Could it be that Noir’s mistake is more specifically related to what Jade does after being god-tiered, or alternately and less likely, to leaving the Peregrine Mendicant alive (more on that in a bit)? Or could it be the destruction of the Green Sun (er, well, more on that in a bit) or the scratch, which he travelled back in time to postpone or obviate?

Meanwhile (whatever that word means in this comic), with the Draconian Dignitary killed by Dave off-screen, both Dave and Rose make their way to the Green Sun, where they find, inexplicably, two Quest Beds waiting for them (or rather, inside Derse’s moon, but the flash seems to indicate otherwise). Once deployed, the Tumor cracks open to show that it is apparently powered by the destruction of both the kids’ and trolls’ universes, and may in fact contain them. After the Green Sun is destroyed (as a sign of how confusing the flash is, apparently the intent is that the Tumor actually creates the Green Sun, but that’s hard to convey without dialogue), Dave and Rose pop out god-tiered (who wants to bet someone’s calling “deus ex machina”?) in front of Aradia and the ghost of a future-dead Sollux. After the living trolls notice the glow of the Sun’s destruction (er, creation), Sollux is shown completely freaking out with his eye sockets flashing black and white, which I actually originally interpreted as something his ghost with Aradia was doing because of the similar color scheme, but which I later realized was him living up to his ancestor’s example.

Oh, and the Peregrine Mendicant recovers the ring from the Wayward Vagabond’s corpse and is shown challenging Noir, apparently coming the same way he did, but showing up ten hours and twenty-five minutes later, and apparently bringing WV’s body with her (if you look closely). Between her and the possibility of “dog-tier” Jade joining the fight, this comic is starting to look like an episode of Dragonball Z (without, of course, the long drawn-out multi-episode fight scenes… hopefully). Seriously, three nigh-omnipotent beings?

All told, the end of Act 5 lived up to every expectation it had to to wrap up something as epic as Act 5 itself was, wrapping up most of the act’s individual plot points and completely shaking up the status quo. But it didn’t answer every question, and it raised more than a few questions of its own. One particularly glaring omission? The flash barely even hints at Lord English.

Reflecting on the end of one of the defining elements of my life

(Note: This post was originally going to have pictures, but I seem to have lost a second data cable for my phone. With luck I may have pictures in time for the Blog-day post at the end of the year.)

As I mentioned in the third-ever post in the history of Da Blog, for the early part of my life I was a sort of vagabond. After living my first four years in the same house, over the succeeding years I moved to Los Angeles, the Seattle suburb of Issaquah, and Seattle itself, living a year in each place. Then in 1996 I moved again, this time just across the freeway from my previous place. This time, I would stay for more than a year. Much more.

Over half my life – indeed nearly two-thirds of my life – has been spent in that little hidden-away place as part of what might best be described as a quadruplex near Seattle’s University District. I moved in just before entering the third grade, and would complete elementary school, middle school, and high school there, as well as attend close to five years of college. I developed my habits there, cultivated my interests, discovered new ideas, started a blog. That house was where I discovered who I was and what I wanted to be. For a time I moved out and lived in a dorm room, but it was not meant to be, and after a few months I was back at the house where I started, where Da Blog became what it is today, whatever that is.

A few months ago my mom inherited a house in Issaquah when her mom died. Mom, not wanting to be anyone’s landlord, decided to move there herself, which meant I would have to come with her. And so it was that this past weekend, we packed up and moved away from my home of 15 years, bringing to a close a somewhat momentous era in my life.

I’d be lying if I said it wasn’t a sobering moment, but I also have plenty of reason to look ahead. The area around the old house has changed over the years, and as I’ve chronicled on Da Blog in the past, I’ve had more than a few run-ins with obnoxious college student neighbors the past few years. This new house has no shared walls with anyone but people I already know. As it sets up, it also has a fairly private area for me to set up and do whatever I need to do, whether it’s on the computer, reading, or whatever; I effectively have an “office” for me to work in. On the other hand, a fairly lengthy commute to school is going to get even lengthier, and it looks like we’re going to add a dog at some point; I’ve never gotten along with dogs.

Although one era of my life has come to an end, a new one is just beginning, and I have every hope and expectation that this new home will provide the foundation upon which Da Blog will finally take off and I will achieve my success. Of course, I’ve said that sort of thing a bajillion times before, and this new home comes with something of a bad omen. I was already close before living in the Seattle area, but this new home is just eleven miles or so from the coordinates of the home of John from Homestuck.

Which spookily enough, brings me to my first real post from my new home…

NFL Schedule: Week 7

Another parade of ties in RCS’ consensus power rankings, and the tie at #2 in particular has me thinking they should go to an odd number of component rankings somehow to make ties harder. I knew to do so with my own similar concept. Meanwhile, I’m astounded at the Monday night over-under, which yields the lowest MXS I’ve recorded in the short time I’ve been doing this, as well as the first favorite’s MXS below 20.

Also, I’ve been thinking about the idea of local all-sports blogs for each sports city, and it’s taking all my effort to keep from starting it up myself by the end of the month…

What is the Median Expected Score?

Away MXS Home Time (ET) TV DTV Announcers NTR SIRIUS Notes
Away Home
#5(4-1) 23-21 #17(3-3) Sun 1:00 PM 705 Jim Nantz, Phil Simms USA 112 93 Showdown between two heavyweights who can’t stand each other… and that’s the coaches!
#22(2-3) 19-22 #24(2-3) Sun 1:00 PM 710 Ron Pitts, Jim Mora 113 85 Two teams trying to show that they’re for real, or at least not horrible.
#18(3-3) 22-25½ #6(5-1) Sun 1:00 PM 707 Dick Stockton, John Lynch WW1 134 86 Lions trying to bounce back from their first loss against a team trying to show they’re still as good as last year.
#T15(3-3) 22¼-21¼ #T11(4-2) Sun 1:00 PM 709 Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston, Tony Siragusa CMP 135 106 One of the better games London has been exposed to… which isn’t saying much.
#T26(1-4) 20½-21½ #30(0-5) Sun 1:00 PM 704 Kevin Harlan, Solomon Wilcots 91 136 Who cares that both teams suck? It’s the start of the Tebow era!
#19(3-2) 20¼-22¾ #23(1-5) Sun 1:00 PM 708 Chris Myers, Tim Ryan 117 94 The Redskins feel people are disrespecting their 3-2 start, but Newton and the Panthers will not make it easy.
#13(3-3) 20¾-23¾ #T15(3-2) Sun 1:00 PM 706 Marv Albert, Rich Gannon 138 92 The Texans have been slipping in recent weeks, and the surprising Titans can take control of the division.
#8(4-2) 23½-19½ #T26(1-4) Sun 4:05 PM 711 Greg Gumbel, Dan Dierdorf USA 85 139 The Cardinals come back from their bye in time to run into the Steelers buzzsaw.
#25(2-3) 18-24 #10(4-2) Sun 4:05 PM 712 Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts CMP 137 91 Hey, the Chiefs are on a winning streak! Can they continue it against the red-hot Raiders?
(6-0) 27¾-18¾ #28(1-5) Sun 4:15 PM 714 Thom Brennaman, Troy Aikman, Pam Oliver WW1 92 86 The Christian Ponder era is underway… good luck!
#32(0-5) 15¾-28¼ #20(2-3) Sun 4:15 PM 713 Sam Rosen, Brian Billick, Laura Okmin 94 93 With the Rams considered to be worse than the other winless teams, chances are we see Good Romo this week.
#31(0-6) 17-31 #7(4-2) Sun 8:20 PM Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya WW1 92 93 Another Colts regret for NBC, especially up against the World Series.
#T2(4-1) 18½-10½ #29(1-5) Mon 8:30 PM Mike Tirico, Jon Gruden, Ron Jaworski, Suzy Kolber WW1 92 93 Are the Ravens the quietest possibly-second-best team in the league ever?

Bye:

2011 College Football Rankings – Week 7

We have an interloper in the Alabama-LSU-Oklahoma oligarchy in the C Ratings. Boise State picked up right where they left off in the Mountain West, winning their first conference game big over Colorado State. It’s not the conference they thought they were joining, but for this year at least it’ll provide a formidible challenge when they face TCU. If they survive that game and run the table, who’s going to argue against them for the national championship?

Meanwhile, Kansas State has finally put every undefeated team in the Top 25, and Northern Illinois is once again in positive B Points. This week’s rankings don’t include the Sun Belt teams that played Tuesday, or the Thursday night game.

How the C Ratings are tabulated: First, A Ratings are tabulated by multiplying the total score ratio, which is expressed by (points-opponents’ points)/points, by the winning percentage. Score ratio minimizes the effect of running up the score. Next, B Points for each game are tabulated by (margin of victory)/(opponent’s A rating)+/-1 for wins, and -(margin of loss)/(1-opponent’s A Rating)+/-1 for losses. The “+/-” is + for road games and – for home ones. The total number of B Points is multiplied by the A Rating to get the B Rating. Finally, the C Rating is tabulated by taking one-tenth the difference between the team’s B Rating and the average of his opponents’ B Ratings and taking the result off the B Rating. The three ratings go A, B, C across. Click here to see the complete ratings.

1 Alabama SEC BCS Title
7-0 LW: A Rat: .906 B Rating: 44.930 C Rating: 38.779 AP: 2 BCS: 2
Alabama owned a mediocre Ole Miss team, but other teams are creeping closer, and Tennessee is no Ole Miss.
2 LSU SEC #2 ’06 Boise St.
7-0 LW: #2 A Rat: .846 B Rating: 40.859 C Rating: 36.063 AP: 1 BCS: 1
Great job dispatching Tennessee. Suspending key players may be bad, but Auburn is overrated, and it seemed to work for them before.
3 Boise State MWC BCS Title
6-0 LW: #5 A Rat: .821 B Rating: 38.907 C Rating: 33.944 AP: 5 BCS: 5
The Broncos started life in their new conference in a big way, blowing out Colorado State on the road. Mediocre Air Force and horrid UNLV will be their preparation for the TCU game.
4 Oklahoma B12 BCS Title
6-0 LW: #3 A Rat: .803 B Rating: 35.762 C Rating: 30.918 AP: 3 BCS: 3
OU slips a spot with a concerning score-ratio game against a pretty bad Kansas team. They might want to find areas of improvement before Texas Tech comes to Norman.
5 Stanford P12 BCS Title
6-0 LW: #7 A Rat: .873 B Rating: 29.293 C Rating: 24.267 AP: 7 BCS: 8
Big win over Wazzu makes up for last week’s slip, and they want national championship respect. But the Cougars’ rivals will not go away easily.
6 Wisconsin B10 BCS Title
6-0 LW: #4 A Rat: .907 B Rating: 29.274 C Rating: 24.044 AP: 4 BCS: 6
Indiana’s A Rating is so horrid that even blowing them out leaves the Badgers open to Boise’s and Stanford’s hard charges. But now comes a big test against Michigan State.
7 Oklahoma State B12 #2 BCS Title
6-0 LW: #8 A Rat: .705 B Rating: 23.093 C Rating: 19.701 AP: 6 BCS: 4
People are getting excited over Little Brother in Stillwater, and Bedlam is going to be must-see. Some close calls suppress their ranking vis-a-vis the BCS, but they’re still a force to be reckoned with.
8 Clemson ACC Prncton/Yale
7-0 LW: #9 A Rat: .713 B Rating: 15.960 C Rating: 12.927 AP: 7 BCS: 8
Good win over Maryland, but North Carolina is not to be underestimated, especially with G-Tech and main division challenger Wake Forest ahead.
9 Oregon P12 #2 ’09 Boise St.
5-1 LW: #12 A Rat: .604 B Rating: 14.429 C Rating: 12.700 AP: 9 BCS: 10
Oregon is making a hard charge after the opening loss to one of the best teams in the country, and suddenly they’re the nation’s best one-loss team. Now they travel to hapless Colorado.
10 Michigan B10 #2 BCS Title
6-1 LW: #6 A Rat: .637 B Rating: 13.651 C Rating: 10.966 AP: 18 BCS: 18
Party time in East Lansing, and the Wolverines pick up the pieces. But they’re still a very good team, and they should bounce back against Purdue.
11 Texas A&M B12 #3 Big 12 Title
4-2 LW: #16 A Rat: .443 B Rating: 12.292 C Rating: 10.322 AP: 17 BCS: 17
Baylor came in 4-1 and in the Top 25 both in polls and C Ratings, and A&M blew them out of the water, sending the Aggies shooting up the ratings. Now Iowa State serves as a warm-up for Missouri.
12 Notre Dame   BCS Bowl
4-2 LW: #10 A Rat: .429 B Rating: 9.677 C Rating: 8.054
A drop for idle hands, and Michigan losing doesn’t help. Will they start getting the respect they deserve after beating one-loss USC?
13 Nebraska B10 #3 Big 10 Title
5-1 LW: #18 A Rat: .526 B Rating: 8.335 C Rating: 6.871 AP: 13 BCS: 13
Idle hands work the other way for Nebraska, as Washington gets poll respect and Ohio State beats a good Illinois team.
14 Virginia Tech ACC #2 Big 12 Title
6-1 LW: #33 A Rat: .574 B Rating: 8.098 C Rating: 6.292 AP: 16 BCS: 12
Heading into last week V-Tech was only two spots ahead of Wake Forest, but you wouldn’t know the way they blew them out of the water. Now they’re the big Tech on campus and control their own Coastal destiny.
15 Houston USA C-USA Title
6-0 LW: #20 A Rat: .729 B Rating: 9.345 C Rating: 6.245 AP: 21 BCS: 19
Houston shoots up the rankings without even playing; losses by other teams help, but so does UTEP blowing out Tulane and East Carolina beating Memphis handily.
16 West Virginia BST Big East Title
5-1 LW: #14 A Rat: .587 B Rating: 7.884 C Rating: 5.996 AP: 11 BCS: 15
West Virginia drops for idle hands, as they prep for a showdown in the Carrier Dome.
17 Penn State B10 #4 Big 10 Title
6-1 LW: #19 A Rat: .594 B Rating: 6.828 C Rating: 5.729 Coaches: 22 BCS: 21
Gotta do better than that against mediocre Purdue, but a win is a win. But they better get better against Northwestern before Illinois – and certainly before Nebraska – come to town.
18 Toledo MAC MAC Title
4-3 LW: #26 A Rat: .343 B Rating: 6.160 C Rating: 5.012
Bowling Green is a respectable win, but this climb into the Top 25 is more about other teams losing. Two of their losses were close and on the road and the third was against Boise State. Aren’t they worthy of consideration?
19 Georgia Tech ACC #3 ACC Title
6-1 LW: #11 A Rat: .576 B Rating: 7.067 C Rating: 4.844 AP: 20 BCS: 22
Tight loss to a half-decent Virginia team, but come on. The biggest drop always comes with the first loss.
20 South Carolina SEC #3 SEC Title
6-1 LW: #23 A Rat: .569 B Rating: 6.532 C Rating: 4.347 AP: 14 BCS: 14
Tight win against a mediocre Mississippi State team, but other teams outright lost. Now they catch Tennessee reeling.
21 Arizona State P12 #3 Pac-12 Title
5-2 LW: #13 A Rat: .444 B Rating: 4.593 C Rating: 3.969 AP: 24 Coaches: 25
And the Devils lose every single spot they gained last week after getting blown out by Oregon. They could leave the Top 25 for idle hands, but perhaps a bad Colorado team can get them back on track.
22 Rutgers BST #2 Big East Title
5-1 LW: #15 A Rat: .555 B Rating: 4.199 C Rating: 3.266
A tight pull-out against a mediocre Navy team, and they might as well not have played at all. Now Louisville will serve as prep for a huge clash with West Virginia.
23 Kansas State B12 #4 2010 TCU
6-0 LW: #34 A Rat: .661 B Rating: 4.634 C Rating: 3.133 AP: 12 BCS: 11
You’ll have to pardon me for not believing in a team that beat FCS Eastern Kentucky by 3 and whose only win by more than 7 came against Kent State, but the Cardiac Cats do keep winning, and several teams losing finally put them in the Top 25.
24 TCU MWC #2 MWC Title
4-2 LW: #25 A Rat: .456 B Rating: 5.126 C Rating: 3.078
Other teams losing + Arkansas also on bye = actually gaining a spot. But they better blow New Mexico out of the water.
25 Arkansas SEC #4 SEC Title
5-1 LW: #24 A Rat: .567 B Rating: 4.536 C Rating: 2.534 AP: 10 BCS: 9
Swap places with TCU because New Mexico lost to a mediocre-to-bad Nevada team. Now they’re back in action against Ole Miss.


31 teams total with positive C Rating (none with negative B Rating)

Off Top 25: #30 Texas (was #22), #34 Illinois (was #17), #51 Baylor (was #21)

Watch List: #26 Georgia, #27 Southern Miss, #28 Florida State*, #29 Missouri*, #30 Texas, #31 Washington, #32 Miami (FL)*, #33 Michigan State*

Other Positive B Ratings: #35 USC*, #37 Utah State, #38 Iowa*, #39 Temple*, #41 Ohio*, #42 Northern Illinois (*=Newly Positive)

No Longer Positive: #34 Illinois, #36 North Carolina, #40 Tennessee, #44 Florida International, #48 Wake Forest, #51 Baylor, #61 Pittsburgh, #68 Western Michigan, #76 Duke

Bottom 10: #111 Central Michigan, #112 Buffalo, #113 Idaho, #114 Akron, #115 UNLV, #116 Florida Atlantic, #117 Tulane, #118 New Mexico, #119 UAB, #120 Memphis

Best game of week: Oklahoma State @ Missouri, 9am PT, FX

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 6

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For Weeks 10-15, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it contradicts the above – and the page it comes from, for that matter):

  • Begins Sunday of Week 11
  • In effect during Weeks 11-17
  • Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
  • The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
  • The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
  • The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
  • The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
  • Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
  • NFL schedules all games.
  • Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
  • Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling, but are now protected after Week 5; however, they are back to Week 4 this year, probably for the same reason as that first year: NBC hosting a Christmas night game and the other games being moved to Saturday.
  • Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. At this writing, no team is completely tapped out at any measure; five teams have five primetime appearances each, but all of them have at least one game that can be flexed out. A list of all teams’ primetime appearances is in my first two posts for Weeks 4 and 5.
  • Last year’s selection of primetime games was weighted rather heavily towards Fox games. This year, the selection currently leans CBS 22, FOX 20 (though if I miscounted one game it may be even). My guess is that the balance will continue to lean towards the AFC. Weeks 10, 12, 13, and 15 are all CBS games, while Weeks 11 and 14 are FOX.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 10 (November 13):

  • Tentative game: New England @ NY Jets
  • Prospects: 5-1 v. 3-3; this is becoming one of the hottest rivalries in the AFC, but this game could be in trouble if the Jets keep losing.
  • Protected games according to the506: Saints-Falcons (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Giants-49ers, Lions-Bears, Texans-Bucs, Steelers-Bengals, Bills-Cowboys.

Week 11 (November 20):

  • Tentative game: Philadelphia @ NY Giants
  • Prospects: 4-2 v. 2-4. If the not-so-Dream Team continues to be a nightmare, this has a pretty good chance to be flexed out, despite the NFC East factor.
  • Protected games: Cowboys-Redskins (FOX) and Chargers-Bears (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Bucs-Packers and Bengals-Ravens, with Titans-Falcons a little behind.

Week 12 (November 17):

  • Tentative game: Pittsburgh @ Kansas City
  • Prospects: 4-2 v. 2-3. Time will tell if the Chiefs are about to rally from their disastrous start. It might not take much for this game to keep its spot.
  • Protected games: Patriots-Eagles (CBS) and Bears-Raiders (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Thanksgiving weekend, paucity of good games (Packers-Lions is an especially bad loss). Bills-Jets and Bucs-Titans are the only good options, with Bengals-Browns a dark horse. After the protections, NBC isn’t left with very attractive matchups in terms of drawing power.

Week 13 (December 4):

  • Tentative game: Indianapolis @ New England
  • Prospects: It’s the Colts and the Patriots, the NFL’s biggest current rivalry! …What’s that? Peyton Manning’s injured and the Colts are 0-6? Yeeeeah, this is getting flexed out unless Manning comes back before then, and even then this would have to be the very game he comes back, which probably won’t be known two weeks in advance.
  • Protected games: Jets-Redskins (CBS) and Packers-Giants (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Lions-Saints has the early lead; Bengals-Steelers and Titans-Bills are also options, with Falcons-Texans lagging behind, and Ravens-Browns and Chiefs-Bears are dark horses.

Week 14 (December 11):

  • Tentative game: NY Giants @ Dallas
  • Prospects: NFC East clash, with both teams moderately good. A flex isn’t out of the realm of possibility, but one or both teams would have to completely collapse and the other game would have to sweep the NFL off its feet. Combine that with a paucity of NFC road games, and no wonder Fox left this week unprotected.
  • Protected games: Patriots-Redskins (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Bills-Chargers, Raiders-Packers, Saints-Titans, Texans-Bengals. Chiefs-Jets is a dark horse.

Week 15 (December 18):

  • Tentative game: Baltimore @ San Diego
  • Prospects: Not NBC’s biggest-name late-season matchup, but by far its best record-wise, a battle of 4-1 teams when no other tentative has more than one team better than 3-3. Good chance to keep its spot.
  • Protected games: Jets-Eagles (CBS) and Redskins-Giants (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Lions-Raiders. That’s it. Yeah, Packers-Chiefs is a dark horse, but I’d say Ravens-Chargers is keeping its spot.

Week 17 (January 1):

  • Playoff positioning watch begins Week 9.

More dispatches from the Wars

No Thursday Night Football? No problem: just go after a different football. The three major contenders in the sports TV wars will square off this week to pick up the rights to the 2018 and 2022 World Cups. ESPN will be looking to defend its World Cup incumbency, arguably its biggest non-NFL, non-BCS event, from the assault of NBC and Fox, two entities looking to shore up their soccer presence in the wake of NBC’s pick-up of an MLS contract.

Apparently, Dick Ebersol had a deal in place for NBC to take over the World Cup starting last year in 2005, but lost it partly because it had no interest in broadcasting soccer the rest of the year. NBC is in a different situation now, and in fact would like to make MLS less of an outlier on NBC and its sports network; other than the Olympics, NBC Sports hasn’t shown basically any of the sport. For NBC, it’s relevant that this contract will also be for two Women’s World Cups and other FIFA programming, to further fill out NBCSN’s schedule and build its soccer credibility. As with the Olympics, though, I don’t think the World Cup is the killer app NBCSN is looking for; one month every four years will not get it done, even in conjunction with the Olympics. I think that fact will depress how much NBC is willing to bid.

If NBC is trying to shore up its MLS programming, Fox is trying to make up for the loss of it. Fox has built its brand as one of the premier homes of soccer through its Fox Soccer channel, which has resulted in some matches airing on FSN, FX, and even the Fox network; the World Cup would be the crowning achievement of this trend. Fox Soccer is in half as many homes as NBCSN, but I would expect most non-Fox matches to air on FX, at least for the main men’s World Cup. The other competitions would be valuable programming for Fox Soccer, especially during a part of the schedule that will be even more dead with MLS leaving.

My guess is that ESPN has better than even odds of retaining the contract, given their demonstrated commitment to the sport. If ESPN loses the contract, I would make NBC the favorite over Fox. The World Cup will not grow Versus that much and Fox has a more established soccer infrastructure, but NBC still needs the Cup more, and I think losing MLS will kill Fox’s bid as much as motivate it, given FIFA’s desire that the winner promote soccer in this country through airing US National Team and MLS matches. (Also, without MLS Fox is much more likely to simply pull commentary from the English feed, something that might be verboten, certainly with soccer fans.) For that same reason, I would expect this fight to be a harbinger of who will take the MLS contract in full in a few years; the winner of this fight could be the odds-on favorite.

There is one more development to speak of, and it’s a little surprising. Since it started airing French Open matches, Tennis Channel has actually been the lead rights-holder, with ESPN2 coming along for the ride. Now Tennis Channel has renewed its deal for the next decade, and it will be the lead rights-holder for real, with ESPN2 being relegated to early-morning and other backup coverage.

Sport-Specific Networks
4 4.5 2.5 .5 0 .5

NFL Schedule: Week 6

There are a lot of ties in RCS’ Consensus Power Rankings, suggesting the way this season has played out has blindsided a lot of people and we aren’t quite sure what to make of it, at least beneath the dominant Packers.

What is the Median Expected Score?

Away MXS Home Time (ET) TV DTV Announcers NTR SIRIUS Notes
Away Home
#T22(1-4) 23½-27 #18(2-3) Sun 1:00 PM 710 Dick Stockton, John Lynch 135 93 Fresh off the Packer defeat, the Falcons look to get back on track, but Cam and the Panthers will not make it easy.
#21(1-4) 25-22 #11(3-1) Sun 1:00 PM 707 Sam Rosen, Brian Billick, Laura Okmin CMP 132 86 The Skins want to show they’re for real. The Eagles want to show they are who we thought they were.
#T31(0-4) 16¾-30¾ (5-0) Sun 1:00 PM 709 Chris Myers, Tim Ryan USA 138 92 The best team in the league… against maybe the worst. How big a blowout can it get?
#29(1-4) 13¾-26¼ #T8(3-2) Sun 1:00 PM 706 Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts WW1 148 94 Not quite as lopsided as Rams-Packers, but probably pretty close.
#T6(4-1) 23½-27 #13(3-2) Sun 1:00 PM 704 Jim Nantz, Phil Simms 112 91 Giants are humiliated for losing to Seattle, and the Bills will be far tougher.
#T8(4-1) 21¼-25¼ #T3(5-0) Sun 1:00 PM 708 Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston, Tony Siragusa 128 85 Who would have thought this would be one of the biggest matchups of the year?
#T31(0-5) 17-23½ #19(3-2) Sun 1:00 PM 705 Kevin Harlan, Solomon Wilcots 113 106 If I’d told you before the season this would be 0-5 vs. 3-2, which would you have thought would be which?
#T22(2-2) 19-25½ #12(3-2) Sun 4:05 PM 712 Marv Albert, Rich Gannon 92 139 The Browns want people to notice they’ve started pretty good, too.
#10(3-2) 19-26 #5(3-1) Sun 4:05 PM 711 Greg Gumbel, Dan Dierdorf USA 93 134 The Texans continue their gauntlet of tough opponents.
#2(4-1) 27¾-21¾ #14(3-2) Sun 4:15 PM 714 Ron Pitts, Jim Mora WW1 94 136 Big home test for the Bucs if they want to challenge for the NFC South.
#16(2-2) 24¾-30¾ #T3(4-1) Sun 4:15 PM 713 Thom Brennaman, Troy Aikman, Pam Oliver CMP 137 86 Which Tony Romo will it be? With the Pats’ iffy defense, look for surprises.
#26(1-4) 19½-22 #20(2-3) Sun 8:20 PM Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya WW1 92 93 The other half of the NFC North squares off in primetime in a game that must have looked good at the time.
#30(0-4) 18-24½ #17(2-3) Mon 8:30 PM Mike Tirico, Jon Gruden, Ron Jaworski, Suzy Kolber WW1 92 93 The woeful Dolphins could prove to be just what the doctor ordered for the underperforming Jets.

Bye: