Month: November 2015

Week 14 (December 13):

• Tentative game: Seattle @ Baltimore
• Prospects: 6-5 v. 3-7. Not looking good.
• Likely protections: Steelers-Bengals (CBS, confirmed) and Cowboys-Packers or Falcons-Panthers (FOX).
• Other possible games mentioned on Monday’s Watch and their records: Falcons (6-5)-Panthers (11-0), Patriots (10-1)-Texans (6-5), Bills (5-6)-Eagles (4-7), Colts (6-5)-Jaguars (4-7), Raiders (5-6)-Broncos (9-2), Washington (5-6)-Bears (5-6), Saints (4-7)-Bucs (5-6).
• Impact of Monday Night Football: A Ravens win gives Seahawks-Ravens a decent, though not overwhelming, chance of keeping its spot, with only a two-game gap and the Ravens with an outside shot at a wild card; a loss probably makes a flex certain, assuming the decision hasn’t already come down by game time. In any case I’ve already seen a tweet indicating the decision’s already been made to flex it out.
• Analysis: Despite the long list of games above I felt Falcons-Panthers and Patriots-Texans were really the only options, and both are massively lopsided; even considering that, Racial Slurs-Bears and Raiders-Broncos are the only two of the remaining games that avoided involving a 4-7 team, and only the latter even comes close to overcoming the tentative game bias and is still a game worse on both sides than Patriots-Texans. This would be much easier if both undefeated teams lost or won, or even if the Panthers were the unbeaten that lost; as it stands the league would have to determine whether to go for Patriots-Texans’ name value and less lopsided nature or Falcons-Panthers’ unbeaten team. Factors to keep in mind: Fox has the doubleheader this week, so the NFL would prefer to take a game from CBS and give it a national audience, and the Panthers-Falcons return match has much less competition to be flexed in Week 16. On the other hand, Texans-Colts seems like a more likely choice to be flexed in next week than a lopsided Panthers-Giants matchup that would leave the Giants maxed out on primetime appearances with Giants-Vikings Week 16 and Eagles-Giants Week 17 both potential flex possibilities. Still, that hasn’t stopped the NFL before, so it hardly outweighs the factors in Patriots-Texans’ favor. Still, I make this prediction with the caveat that if Falcons-Panthers isn’t protected this week but is protected Week 16 (which, note, is also a Fox doubleheader week), I would be far from surprised to see it picked this week, and I’m not sure I agree with not waiting for MNF to see if the Ravens win if the NFL can wait. Even then, though, the name value might still give the edge to…
• Final prediction: New England Patriots @ Houston Texans.
• Actual selection: New England Patriots @ Houston Texans (matches prediction).

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that even with the bit about the early flexes, this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it still says late games start at 4:15 ET instead of 4:25):

• Begins Sunday of Week 5
• In effect during Weeks 5-17
• Up to 2 games may be flexed into Sunday Night between Weeks 5-10
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks starting Week 11, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 in 2006 and 2011, because NBC hosted Christmas night games those years and all the other games were moved to Saturday (and so couldn’t be flexed), but are otherwise protected after Week 5. As I understand it, during the Week 5-10 period the NFL and NBC declare their intention to flex out a game two weeks in advance, at which point CBS and Fox pick one game each to protect.
• In the past, three teams could appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. I don’t know how the expansion of the Thursday Night schedule affects this, if it does. No team starts the season completely tapped out at any measure; nine teams have five primetime appearances each, but only the Giants, Cowboys, Packers, and Eagles don’t have games in the main flex period, and of those only the Giants don’t have games in the early flex period. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 22):

• Selected game: Cincinnati @ Arizona.

Week 12 (November 29):

• Selected game: New England @ Denver.

Week 13 (December 6):

• Selected game: Indianapolis @ Pittsburgh.

Week 14 (December 13):

• Tentative game: Seattle @ Baltimore
• Prospects: 5-5 v. 3-7. Not looking good.
• Likely protections: Steelers-Bengals (CBS, confirmed) and Cowboys-Packers or Falcons-Panthers (FOX).
• Other possible games: The Cowboys suck and are pressed for primetime appearances, so if Falcons-Panthers is protected (admittedly extremely unlikely given Fox’s track record, even though both teams were unbeaten when protections came in) the best available games, aside from heavily-lopsided Patriots-Texans, involve teams at 4-6: Bills-Eagles, Colts-Jaguars, Raiders-Broncos, Racial Slurs-Bears, Saints-Bucs.
• Analysis: With the Falcons on a three-game losing streak, even if Falcons-Panthers is unprotected it’s not clear it actually has that much of an edge over Patriots-Texans; right now it’s just a Falcons game over the Texans better, and if both games are, say, 10-1 v. 6-5, I think the Tom Brady star power factor (as well as J.J. Watt to a lesser degree) wins out. Other than those games, I think there might actually be a slim chance of this game keeping its spot; a Baltimore win next week would put them potentially only a game worse than even the best-case scenario for the 4-6 teams, and even only two games worse than the Falcons if the Falcons lose. Realistically none of the games involving 4-6 teams, with the possible exception of Raiders-Broncos, offer enough buzz to overcome both the tentative game bias and the buzz either Falcons-Panthers or Patriots-Texans offer. Worth mentioning: if the NFL isn’t locked into Packers-Raiders as the only alternative to the tentative next week (and there’s reason to think they may not be), either the Texans or Panthers could be moved to Sunday night next week.

Week 15 (December 20):

• Tentative game: Cincinnati @ San Francisco
• Prospects: 8-2 v. 3-7. Massively lopsided.
• Likely protections: Broncos-Steelers (CBS, confirmed) and Panthers-Giants or Bears-Vikings (FOX).
• Other possible games: Texans-Colts is a key showdown for the AFC South, even if the two teams are both 5-5. Panthers-Giants is very lopsided at 10-0 v. 5-5, but the unbeaten factor can’t be discounted. I also must mention the continued possibility that the NFL would still give the edge to Packers-Raiders if it’s reasonably competitive with other options, even if it is lopsided with the Raiders at 4-6 at the moment.

Week 16 (December 27):

• Tentative game: Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
• Prospects: 6-4 v. 3-7. One of the NFL’s better rivalries, but not in the best shape right now.
• Likely protections: Patriots-Jets (CBS) and Packers-Cardinals or Panthers-Falcons (FOX).
• Other possible games: As with the week with the first Panthers-Falcons matchup, Fox’s unprotected game is far and away ahead of any other contenders, with Giants-Vikings in second.

Week 17 (January 3):

AFC Playoff Picture

DIVISION LEADERS	WILD CARD	WAITING IN THE WINGS
SOUTH 45-5	56-4	4-6
5-5		4-6
WEST 38-2	65-5	4-6
5-5		3-7
NORTH 28-2	5-5
6-4	5-5
EAST 110-0	5-5
2 tied at 5-5

NFC Playoff Picture

DIVISION LEADERS	WILD CARD	WAITING IN THE WINGS (4-6)
EAST 45-5	57-3
2 tied at 4-6
NORTH 37-3	66-4
7-3
WEST 28-2	5-5
5-5	5-5
SOUTH 110-0
6-4

• Tentative game: None (NBC will show game with guaranteed playoff implications).
• Possible games: Jets-Bills, Saints-Falcons, Jaguars-Texans, Raiders-Chiefs, Eagles-Giants, Vikings-Packers, Seahawks-Cardinals.

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that even with the bit about the early flexes, this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it still says late games start at 4:15 ET instead of 4:25):

• Begins Sunday of Week 5
• In effect during Weeks 5-17
• Up to 2 games may be flexed into Sunday Night between Weeks 5-10
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks starting Week 11, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 in 2006 and 2011, because NBC hosted Christmas night games those years and all the other games were moved to Saturday (and so couldn’t be flexed), but are otherwise protected after Week 5. As I understand it, during the Week 5-10 period the NFL and NBC declare their intention to flex out a game two weeks in advance, at which point CBS and Fox pick one game each to protect.
• In the past, three teams could appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. I don’t know how the expansion of the Thursday Night schedule affects this, if it does. No team starts the season completely tapped out at any measure; nine teams have five primetime appearances each, but only the Giants, Cowboys, Packers, and Eagles don’t have games in the main flex period, and of those only the Giants don’t have games in the early flex period. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 22):

• Selected game: Cincinnati @ Arizona.

Week 12 (November 29):

• Tentative game: New England @ Denver
• Final prediction (made two weeks ago): New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos. (With the caveat that it’s not clear Peyton Manning will be starting. Still, you don’t want to take the risk of flexing out of this game and then he IS healthy, especially since, as Sunday made clearer than ever, this might be the last Brady v. Manning showdown.)

Week 13 (December 6):

• Tentative game: Indianapolis @ Pittsburgh
• Prospects: 4-5 v. 6-4, a rather mediocre game but the Colts still lead the division despite being below .500.
• Likely protections: Jets-Giants (CBS) and Eagles-Patriots (FOX).
• Other possible games: There are no games involving nothing but teams at or above .500. When we hit teams at 4-5, we see Cardinals-Rams, Seahawks-Vikings, Falcons-Bucs, and Texans-Bills. Chiefs-Raiders is a matchup of two 4-5 teams.
• Analysis: For the record, this week is so bad that even the protected games involve 5-5 and 4-5 teams respectively (though that’s largely because of across-the-board mediocrity and a huge number of 4-5 teams – see the Playoff Picture below). So if you have to settle for a 4-5 or 5-5 team, a game where the 4-5 team leads, or at least contends for, the sorry AFC South is probably your best option, meaning this might actually be the best game of the week at the moment (and a potential Wild Card preview at the opposite stadium). Even if one of the 4-5 teams wins and the Colts lose, I think that factor combines with the tentative game bias (not to mention the middling-at-best attractions of the alternatives, with Seahawks-Vikings probably having the best name value) to let this game keep its spot.
• Final prediction: Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers (no change).

Week 14 (December 13):

• Tentative game: Seattle @ Baltimore
• Prospects: 4-5 v. 2-7. Not looking good.
• Likely protections: Steelers-Bengals (CBS, confirmed) and Cowboys-Packers or Falcons-Panthers (FOX).
• Other possible games: The Cowboys suck and are pressed for primetime appearances, so if Falcons-Panthers is protected (admittedly extremely unlikely given Fox’s track record, even though both teams were unbeaten when protections came in) we’ll once again have to go to teams at 4-5. Raiders-Broncos remains lopsided, while Bills-Eagles is less so but has zero star power. Racial Slurs-Bears pits two 4-5 teams against each other.

Week 15 (December 20):

• Tentative game: Cincinnati @ San Francisco
• Prospects: 8-1 v. 3-6. Massively lopsided.
• Likely protections: Broncos-Steelers (CBS, confirmed) and Panthers-Giants or Bears-Vikings (FOX).
• Other possible games: Panthers-Giants is a bit lopsided, sitting at 9-0 v. 5-5, but it’s the only option pitting two teams at or above .500. If the NFL must go to a 4-5 team, they’d likely prefer Packers-Raiders to avoid scheduling two Bay Area home games at the same time (or even doing something weirder), though unlike some of my commenters I don’t think it’s the only option, only the most likely one. (Once again, the NFL still has yet to learn that it needs to consider every Sunday night game in the late-flex period as potentially flexible. Well, unless it involves the Cowboys of course.) The next best game might actually pit two 4-5 teams against each other: Texans-Colts pits the two AFC South contenders, Cardinals-Eagles and Bears-Vikings are very lopsided, and Bills-Original Americans is just plain blah.

Week 16 (December 27):

• Tentative game: Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
• Prospects: 6-4 v. 2-7. One of the NFL’s better rivalries, but not in the best shape right now.
• Likely protections: Patriots-Jets (CBS) and Packers-Cardinals or Panthers-Falcons (FOX).
• Other possible games: As with the week with the first Panthers-Falcons matchup, Fox’s unprotected game is far and away ahead of any other contenders, with Giants-Vikings in second and a trio of matchups of 4-5 teams (Colts-Dolphins, Rams-Seahawks, Bears-Bucs) as very long shots.

Week 17 (January 3):

AFC Playoff Picture

DIVISION LEADERS	WILD CARD	WAITING IN THE WINGS
SOUTH 44-5	56-4	4-5
4-5		4-5
WEST 37-2	65-4	4-5
2 tied at 4-5		4-5
NORTH 28-1	5-4	3-6
6-4
EAST 19-0
2 tied at 5-4

NFC Playoff Picture

DIVISION LEADERS	WILD CARD	WAITING IN THE WINGS
EAST 45-5	56-3	4-5
2 tied at 4-5		4-5
NORTH 37-2	66-3	4-5
6-3		4-5
WEST 27-2		4-5
2 tied at 4-5		4-5
SOUTH 19-0		4-6
6-3

• Tentative game: None (NBC will show game with guaranteed playoff implications).
• Possible games: Jets-Bills, Saints-Falcons, Raiders-Chiefs, Eagles-Giants, Vikings-Packers, Seahawks-Cardinals.

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that even with the bit about the early flexes, this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it still says late games start at 4:15 ET instead of 4:25):

• Begins Sunday of Week 5
• In effect during Weeks 5-17
• Up to 2 games may be flexed into Sunday Night between Weeks 5-10
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks starting Week 11, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 in 2006 and 2011, because NBC hosted Christmas night games those years and all the other games were moved to Saturday (and so couldn’t be flexed), but are otherwise protected after Week 5. As I understand it, during the Week 5-10 period the NFL and NBC declare their intention to flex out a game two weeks in advance, at which point CBS and Fox pick one game each to protect.
• In the past, three teams could appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. I don’t know how the expansion of the Thursday Night schedule affects this, if it does. No team starts the season completely tapped out at any measure; nine teams have five primetime appearances each, but only the Giants, Cowboys, Packers, and Eagles don’t have games in the main flex period, and of those only the Giants don’t have games in the early flex period. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 22):

• Selected game: Cincinnati @ Arizona

Week 12 (November 29):

• Tentative game: New England @ Denver
• Final prediction (made last week): New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos.

Week 13 (December 6):

• Tentative game: Indianapolis @ Pittsburgh
• Prospects: 4-5 v. 5-4, a rather mediocre game but the Colts still lead the division despite being below .500.
• Likely protections: Jets-Giants (CBS) and Eagles-Patriots (FOX).
• Other possible games: Cardinals-Rams, Panthers-Saints, and Seahawks-Vikings all pit teams above .500 against teams at .500, so none of them are really much better.

Week 14 (December 13):

• Tentative game: Seattle @ Baltimore
• Prospects: 4-4 v. 2-6. Not looking good.
• Likely protections: Steelers-Bengals (CBS, confirmed) and Cowboys-Packers or Falcons-Panthers (FOX).
• Other possible games: Either of Fox’s possible protected games would be very attractive, and there may not really be any other option; Raiders-Broncos is lopsided and doesn’t even have the unbeaten factor on its side anymore. On the other hand, the Cowboys are kind of pressed for primetime appearances. Bills-Eagles is a battle of .500 teams.

Week 15 (December 20):

• Tentative game: Cincinnati @ San Francisco
• Prospects: 8-0 v. 3-6. Massively lopsided.
• Likely protections: Broncos-Steelers (CBS, confirmed) and Panthers-Giants or Bears-Vikings (FOX).
• Other possible games: Panthers-Giants is a bit lopsided, sitting at 8-0 v. 5-4; Packers-Raiders is a bit better at 6-2 v. 4-4, as is Cardinals-Eagles (the former would certainly give the NFL the least amount of heartburn regarding scheduling two Bay Area home games).

Week 16 (December 27):

• Tentative game: Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
• Prospects: 5-4 v. 2-6. One of the NFL’s better rivalries, but not in the best shape right now.
• Likely protections: Patriots-Jets (CBS) and Packers-Cardinals or Panthers-Falcons (FOX).
• Other possible games: As with the week with the first Panthers-Falcons matchup, Fox’s unprotected game is far and away ahead of any other contenders, with Giants-Vikings in second and Rams-Seahawks as a dark horse.

Week 17 (January 3):

AFC Playoff Picture

DIVISION LEADERS	WILD CARD	WAITING IN THE WINGS (3-5)
SOUTH 44-5	55-3
3-5
WEST 37-1	65-4
4-4
EAST 28-0	4-4
5-3	4-4
NORTH 18-0
5-4

NFC Playoff Picture

DIVISION LEADERS	WILD CARD	WAITING IN THE WINGS
EAST 45-4	56-2	4-5
4-4		3-5
NORTH 36-2	66-3	3-5
6-2		3-5
WEST 26-2	4-4
2 tied at 4-4	4-4
SOUTH 18-0	4-4
6-3

• Tentative game: None (NBC will show game with guaranteed playoff implications).
• Possible games: Jets-Bills, Saints-Falcons, Raiders-Chiefs, Eagles-Giants, Vikings-Packers, Seahawks-Cardinals.

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that even with the bit about the early flexes, this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it still says late games start at 4:15 ET instead of 4:25):

• Begins Sunday of Week 5
• In effect during Weeks 5-17
• Up to 2 games may be flexed into Sunday Night between Weeks 5-10
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks starting Week 11, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 in 2006 and 2011, because NBC hosted Christmas night games those years and all the other games were moved to Saturday (and so couldn’t be flexed), but are otherwise protected after Week 5. As I understand it, during the Week 5-10 period the NFL and NBC declare their intention to flex out a game two weeks in advance, at which point CBS and Fox pick one game each to protect.
• In the past, three teams could appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. I don’t know how the expansion of the Thursday Night schedule affects this, if it does. No team starts the season completely tapped out at any measure; nine teams have five primetime appearances each, but only the Giants, Cowboys, Packers, and Eagles don’t have games in the main flex period, and of those only the Giants don’t have games in the early flex period. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 22):

• Tentative game: Kansas City @ San Diego
• Prospects: 3-5 v. 2-6, in pretty bad shape.
• Likely protections: Bengals-Cardinals or Colts-Falcons (CBS) and Packers-Vikings if anything (FOX).
• Other possible games: Pretty much just CBS’ unprotected game, and even then Colts-Falcons is only redeemed for its lopsidedness and the Colts’ sucky record by the Colts leading the sucky AFC South regardless; Packers-Vikings would be on par with Bengals-Cardinals but more evenly matched and involving more attractive teams, but apparently the terms of the Vikings’ lease at M&T Bank Stadium mean the Vikings can’t host any primetime games when class is in session. (This also means this has a pretty good chance of being Fox’s unprotected week if they knew about this, although Cowboys-Dolphins might have been another option.)
• Selected game: Cincinnati Bengals @ Arizona Cardinals.

Week 12 (November 29):

• Tentative game: New England @ Denver
• Prospects: Not a single loss between them, and possibly the last Brady-Manning showdown. No chance to lose its spot.
• Likely protections: Giants-Washington if anything (FOX).
• Other possible games: Thanksgiving Weekend, paucity of good games (I think it’s a mortal lock this is CBS’ unprotected week). I doubt it’s a coincidence the game you think is least likely to be flexed coming into the season is the one slated for this week. Vikings-Falcons is the best option, but both teams have two losses already, meaning they can only match the tentative at best. And if they can’t beat this game, Rams-Bengals, Steelers-Seahawks, and Saints-Texans sure can’t.
• Final prediction: New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos.

Week 13 (December 6):

• Tentative game: Indianapolis @ Pittsburgh
• Prospects: 3-5 v. 4-4, a rather mediocre game but the Colts still lead the division despite being below .500.
• Likely protections: Jets-Giants (CBS) and Eagles-Patriots (FOX).
• Other possible games: Cardinals-Rams now pits two teams above .500 while Panthers-Saints and Seahawks-Vikings emerge as dark horses.

Week 14 (December 13):

• Tentative game: Seattle @ Baltimore
• Prospects: 4-4 v. 2-6. Not looking good.
• Likely protections: Steelers-Bengals (CBS, confirmed) and Cowboys-Packers or Falcons-Panthers (FOX).
• Other possible games: Either of Fox’s possible protected games would be very attractive, and there may not really be any other option; Raiders-Broncos pits an unbeaten against a better team than the Cowboys, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Cowboys’ name value trumped that. On the other hand, the Cowboys are kind of pressed for primetime appearances. I only mention Patriots-Texans as the Texans are co-leaders of the sucky AFC South.

Week 15 (December 20):

• Tentative game: Cincinnati @ San Francisco
• Prospects: 6-0 v. 2-6. Massively lopsided.
• Likely protections: Broncos-Steelers (CBS, confirmed) and Panthers-Giants or Bears-Vikings (FOX).
• Other possible games: Panthers-Giants is a bit lopsided, sitting at 7-0 v. 4-4; Packers-Raiders is a bit better at 6-1 v. 4-3. But both are more appealing than the battle of sucky AFC South division leaders in Texans-Colts.

Week 16 (December 27):

• Tentative game: Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
• Prospects: 4-4 v. 2-6. One of the NFL’s better rivalries, but not in the best shape right now.
• Likely protections: Patriots-Jets (CBS) and Packers-Cardinals or Panthers-Falcons (FOX).
• Other possible games: As with the week with the first Panthers-Falcons matchup, Fox’s unprotected game is far and away ahead of any other contenders, with Giants-Vikings and Rams-Seahawks as dark horses.

Week 17 (January 3):

• Playoff positioning watch begins Week 9.