Since it started in its current format as the NFL’s main primetime package in 2006, the defining feature of NBC’s Sunday Night Football has been the use of flexible scheduling to ensure the best matchups and showcase the best teams as the season goes along. Well, that’s the theory, anyway; the reality has not always lived up to the initial hype and has at times seemed downright mystifying. Regardless, I’m here to help you figure out what you can and can’t expect to see on Sunday nights on NBC.
A full explanation of all the factors that go into flexible scheduling decisions can be found on my NFL Flexible Scheduling Primer, but here’s the Cliffs Notes version with all the important points you need to know:
- The season can be broken down into three different periods (four if you count the first four weeks where flexible scheduling does not apply at all) for flexible scheduling purposes, each with similar yet different rules governing them: the early flex period, from weeks 5 to 10; the main flex period, from weeks 11 to 16; and week 17. In years where Christmas forces either the Sunday afternoon slate or the Sunday night game to Saturday in Week 16, flex scheduling does not apply that week, and the main flex period begins week 10.
- In all cases, only games scheduled for Sunday may be moved to Sunday night. Thursday and Monday night games, as well as late-season Saturday games, are not affected by Sunday night flexible scheduling (discounting the “flexible scheduling” applied to Saturday of Week 16 this year and last – see below).
- During the early and main flex periods, one game is “tentatively” scheduled for Sunday night and listed with the Sunday night start time of 8:20 PM ET. This game will usually remain at that start time and air on NBC, but may be flexed out for another game and moved to 1, 4:05, or 4:25 PM ET on Fox or CBS, no less than 12 days in advance of the game.
- No more than two games can be flexed to Sunday night over the course of the early flex period. If the NFL wishes to flex out a game in the early flex period twelve days in advance, CBS and Fox may elect to protect one game each from being moved to Sunday night. This is generally an emergency valve in situations where the value of the tentative game has plummeted since the schedule was announced, namely in cases of injury to a key star player.
- CBS and Fox may also each protect games in five out of six weeks of the main flex period, but all of those protections must be submitted after week 5, week 4 in years where the main flex period begins week 10 (so it is always six weeks before the start of the main flex period).
- No team may appear more than six times across the league’s three primetime packages on NBC, ESPN, and Fox/NFL Network, and only three teams are allowed to appear that often, with everyone else getting five. In addition, no team may appear more than four times on NBC. All teams’ number of appearances heading into this season may be seen here.
- According to the league’s official page, teams are notified when “they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.” However, they rarely make this known to the fans, and the list of each network’s protections has never officially been made public. It used to leak fairly regularly, but has not leaked since 2014.
- In all cases, the NFL is the ultimate arbiter of the schedule and consults with CBS, Fox, and NBC before moving any games to prime time. If the NFL does elect to flex out the Sunday night game, the network whose game is flexed in may receive the former tentative game, regardless of which network would “normally” air it under the “CBS=AFC, Fox=NFC” rules, keeping each network’s total number of games constant. At the same time, the NFL may also move games between 1 PM ET and 4:05/4:25 PM ET. However, this feature focuses primarily if not entirely on Sunday night flexible scheduling.
- In Week 17, the entire schedule is set on only six days notice, ensuring that NBC gets a game with playoff implications, generally a game where the winner is the division champion. More rarely, NBC may also show an intra-division game for a wild card spot, or a game where only one team wins the division with a win but doesn’t win the division with a loss, but such situations are rare and last year was the first time it showed such a game. If no game is guaranteed to have maximum playoff implications before Sunday night in this fashion, the league has been known not to schedule a Sunday night game at all. To ensure maximum flexibility, no protections or appearance limits apply to Week 17. The NFL also arranges the rest of the schedule such that no team playing at 4:25 PM ET (there are no 4:05 games Week 17) could have their playoff fate decided by the outcome of the 1 PM ET games, which usually means most if not all of the games with playoff implications outside Sunday night are played at 4:25 PM ET.
Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:
Week 16 (December 22):
- Selected game: Kansas City @ Chicago. This game was announced as keeping its spot while the late-afternoon games were still going, and the Vikings won to knock the Bears out of the playoffs while the Steelers lost to ensure the Titans can’t be eliminated by a Steelers win alone next week. One may surmise that NBC didn’t want to wait until after their Sunday night game was over to confirm next week’s game, nor did the league want to face the prospect of waiting for the Sunday night game the following week to decide the Week 17 game, so maybe game-announcing logistics have a bigger impact on Week 16 selections than I thought.
Week 17 (December 29):
- Tentative game: None (NBC will show game with guaranteed playoff implications).
- Possible games: Titans-Texans, Niners-Seahawks. I had thought if the Niners took two losses while the Seahawks won two, but then the Niners beat the Seahawks, the Niners would hold the edge on conference games, meaning the league might as well have flexed it in right off the bat as soon as the Niners lost, certainly once the Steelers’ loss ensured Titans-Texans couldn’t be a loser-out game. But looking at the standings last night shows both teams with identical conference records, so I don’t know if I miscalculated (or didn’t calculate at all, or maybe considered this past week’s non-division opponents as non-conference ones), looked at the wrong column, or looked at wrong information for some reason. In any case, both teams’ records are so strong that looking at strength-of-victory is actually relatively simple, though the effects are anything but.
- Niners-Seahawks will be picked if: The Niners win OR the Seahawks lose OR Washington and the Saints win while the Falcons and Eagles lose OR any two of the results in the last condition happen AND the Packers beat the Vikings. Both teams won both their “same-rank” games (the only games they don’t have in common with each other), with Seattle beating the Eagles and Vikings while the Niners beat Washington and Green Bay. Both teams beat an NFC South team the other lost to, with the Seahawks beating the Falcons and the Niners topping the Saints; and divisional opponents aren’t a factor, as each would have gone 2-0 against the Cardinals and 1-1 against the Rams. All told, the Niners’ unique victories have a combined record of 25-17, while the Seahawks’ have a combined record of 22-20, but because Washington is such a dumpster fire (in more ways than one), if the teams finish tied on strength of victory the Seahawks would likely have the edge on strength of schedule. The big problem here is the decently high likelihood that this could come down to the Monday night game; if that happens and Titans-Texans is an option, expect the league to go that way. (At least the Seahawks would still be jockeying with the Saints for home-field advantage even if they were to have strength-of-victory locked up, while the Niners would be jockeying with the NFC North loser for wild-card seeding and a potential trip to Dallas or Philadelphia. Otherwise if all of the above results went the Seahawks’ way, the Saints and NFC North teams might have to be joined in the late time slot by the NFC East teams.)
- Titans-Texans will be picked if: The Texans lose AND the Titans win AND the Niners lose AND the Seahawks win AND not enough of the above-mentioned results happen, or the Packers-Vikings game is the last one that needs to happen. If the Steelers win this week and lose Week 17, they would hold the conference-games tiebreaker over the Titans, but the Texans would hold the edge over the Steelers. On the other hand, both these teams beat the Chiefs head-to-head, so all it would take is for the Chiefs and Steelers to lose and suddenly there’s a real risk this just determines home field for a rematch the following week.
Last year I talked about my commenters’ wild speculation that NBC might be given two games to make up for not having any game the year before. As that’s become a significantly more distant memory (and as my tolerance for far-fetched theories has eroded), I won’t go into that too deeply this year, though the NFC East games would be a logical choice for a regional/reverse-mirror split. The AFC East teams may also be a possibility, as might the NFC North though that depends on the Monday night game, though if the Vikings lose Monday night Cardinals-Rams could be paired with Bears-Vikings. Steelers-Ravens and Texans-Titans are only an option if a) the Ravens have clinched the 1 seed (fairly simple, requiring only a Ravens win or Patriots and Chiefs losses) and b) the Texans also have nothing to play for, i.e., the Chiefs win (thus requiring the Ravens win) while the Texans and Titans both lose.
Not much to speculate on here, you may see the NFL announce the 49ers-Seahawks flex as soon as Saturday night if the Niners beat the Rams as expected.
I’m With You Nathaniel It Will Most Likely Be 49ers Seahawks. And it Will Likely Be The Game For Week 17 Sunday Night Football Finale On NBC. And that would be a good way to close out the 2019 regular season and i’m Thinking about celebrating the End Of the Regular season if they flex it we could all be right.
This time, if the 49ers win on Saturday, it’s a no-brainer since 49ers-Seahawks is guaranteed to be for AT LEAST a first-round bye if not the #1 seed.
As also said, what I would do is this:
If the Eagles beat the Cowboys, since the Eagles would still need to beat the Giants to assure themselves of the NFC East AND ONLY the NFC East winner will get a playoff spot, the NFL can have PHI-NYG and DAL-WAS at 1:00 and split between FOX and CBS as the main 1:00 PM games. This also appeases New York in all likelihood since especially if the Bills upset the Pats on Saturday, NYJ-BUF almost certainly has to be at 4:25 as Jets and Giants fans have both complained repeatedly about both New York teams being at 1:00 and this would allow the New York teams to be in separate time slots.
Except for SF-SEA, all other games involving teams in the playoff hunt can be at 4:25.
It’s safe to say that if it can be Niners-Seahawks, it will be.
I felt at the time that NBC’s “compensation” for that no-SNF Week 17 was getting a strong draw with playoff games that year – ATL-LAR as the WC primetime game, @ PHI (ultimately ATL-PHI) the following week. (And they oddly gave Fox both Sunday 4:40 games when usually they just got the WC one and CBS had the divisional round one… although they had that the year before too, they had their primetime slipstream broken that year by the weather-related shift of PIT-KC to primetime.)
Do we know anything much about how playoff games are allocated to networks? Obviously ESPN get the one Saturday WC game and NBC a WC and divisional game while the rest are in usual conference formation, but I don’t know how games are allocated to networks and timeslots, nor do I know if it’s known at all. Worth noting this year divisional Sunday is going to the timings of Championship Sunday (3 / 6:30 or a hair later than that), so the late Sunday slot has a different but maybe even greater value to when it was 4:40 and led into a full, pumped-up primetime schedule. (The Simpsons has had a history of getting monster numbers when in that slipstream.
Also worth noting Fox’s fully detailed list of midseason premiere times and dates have a gaping hole. No mention whatsoever of what they’ll do on any 2020 Sundays pre-SB, except for the NFCCG/SB leadouts… Does this mean which Sunday late slot they get, if any even, is up for grabs?
I’ve tried for a long time for figure out the NFL’s playoff scheduling M.O. and I honestly don’t think they have a set formula that they go by year to year anymore. Before 2009, you could somewhat reliably infer the divisional round schedule based on whether it was an odd or even year (i.e. Fox would have the late game on Divisional Sunday and early game on Saturday in odd years and the inverse in even years). Especially since the new TV deal began in 2014, though, there hasn’t seemed to be any rhyme or reason to the scheduling from year to year.
Hello all,
Here’s my take on the Week 17 SNF Flex situation:
#1 – SF(11-3) @ Sea(11-3)
#2 – Tenn(8-6) @ Hou(9-5)
#3 – Pitt(8-6) @ Balt(12-2)
#4 – Chi(7-7) @ Minn(10-4)
49ers/Seahawks is the “logical” choice and I’d love to see it, but if the Saints and/or my Packers have the same record as these teams going into Week 17, this game could be in serious jeopardy and have to be played in the late slot. If anything, the last 2 and perhaps few more years, the NFL has been very consistent on having teams that have the same playoff implications, play at the same time. So much so, that we all got the major 2017 surprise of NO Week 17 SNF game. None of us even thought that was possible until the announcement. Maybe Walt somewhat mentioned it. LOL. 🙂
Titans/Texans is a logical 2nd choice, but if the Texans beat the Bucs this Saturday and clinch the division, then what’s the point. This matchup would have had a great chance had the Titans beaten the Texans this last Sunday.
Steelers/Ravens stands some chance, as the Steelers could have the 6 seed sewn up and the Ravens could have the 1 seed sown up. Would the Ravens rest most of their stars against their biggest rival?
Bears/Vikings has 2 teams currently at .500 and above, but that’s the only thing going for it anymore.
Last thoughts on Week 17 SNF flex scheduling. If there’s a SNF game, then we’ll have 15 games earlier. Currently it’s 13 in the early slot and 3 in the late slot. I have seen it as high as 10 in early slot and 5 in late slot and I have seen it as low as 7 games in early slot and 8 in late slot and might have been 7 in early slot and 9 in late slot in 2017 with no SNF game. So don’t be foolish enough to think we’ll have only 4 in the early window and 11 in the late window, even if the playoff implications “require” it. I think this year will be a 8/7 or 7/8 split between early and late games due to the current playoff implications.
As for the 6 day window that’s used in Week 17 and seemed to be available for the NFL in Week 16 this season, is it or is not really a 6 day window? This past weekend didn’t tell us if mattered due to the Titans losing to the Texans in the early window and making Titans/Saints a pointless flex option. This coming week will be the real test though. With Packers/Vikings on Monday Night Football this week and NBC seemingly ALWAYS announcing the Week 17 schedule during the Week 16 broadcast, we’ll see what’s more important, and that being a real 6 day window and no announcement of the Week 17 schedule until the Monday game is over or one team is killing the other and an announcement can come earlier or if the NFL simply decides to announce the Week 17 schedule during Week 16 SNF and hope that their gamble works out.
I’m of the impression that the schedule will be announced during the Week 17 SNF game and thus making it really a 7 day window, not 6.
Lastly, I will put the no Week 17 SNF game percentage at 28%. A lot could happen this week and with such a huge game on Monday Night Football, the NFL could punt again this season. We’ll see!
Go Pack Go at Minnesota this Monday! 🙂
I’m of the impression that the schedule will be announced during the Week 17 (<—oops, meant Week 16) SNF game and thus making it really a 7 day window, not 6.
The Steelers will only hold the conference tiebreaker If the Titans win against the Saints and lose to the Texans. In that case if they both finish 9-7 the Steelers go to the Playoffs. If the Titans lose to the Saints and beat the Texans then conference record will be tied and the Titans will be the wild card on the strength of victory tiebreaker.
Hey Jeff The Steelers are maxed out of Primetime games at 6 So Therefore Steelers Ravens can not be flexed they and the packers have already maxed out there 6 Primetime games for this season as well.
Andrew:
The appearance limit does not apply to week 17, it was changed in 2011 after the Eagles were maxed out after Week 16 of the 2010 season (the infamous Vikings-Eagles flex that had to be played on Tuesday night due to a blizzard).
That said, Ravens-Steelers is unlikely to be flexed anyway because of other games at 4:25.
Still say long-term, the solution is for one conference to have all its games at 3:00 PM and the other at 8:15, with to make up for that to NBC their being given a new Wednesday-after-Thanksgving game tied to the tree lighting in Rockefeller Plaza that can have a 7:30 PM ET kickoff with an extended halftime that can be called “The NFL Holiday Kickoff” with that game usually at The Meadowlands with the Jets and Giants alternating as the home team. The teams playing that game would get their bye week ahead of that game as it would be a second mid-week game in most cases (unless the Jets/Giants and their opponent played on Thanksgiving). That can also allow the following week for TNF to be between teams who played Wednesday or Thursday the previous week and extend TNF to Week 16. If we had that this season, here’s how I suspect it would play out with the AFC at 3:00 and the NFC at 8:15 with all games divided up equally between ALL of the broadcast partners (NOTE:,/b> This example assumes the Eagles win this week and having to win in Week 17 to take the NFC East and the Bills beat the Pats this week with the AFC East also on the line and the Vikings beat the Packers this week):
NBC (first pick in each time slot): Ravens-Steelers (3:00) and 49ers-Seahawks (8:15)
CBS (second pick at 3:00, third pick at 8:15): Titans-Texans (3:00) and Eagles-Giants (8:15)
FOX (third pick at 3:00, second pick at 8:15): Dolphins-Patriots (3:00) and Redskins-Cowboys (8:15)
ABC (as ESPN on ABC, fourth pick in each time slot): Jets-Bills (3:00) and Bears-Vikings (8:15)
ESPN (games also airing on LivWell, ABC’s DT-2 Channel or LAFF, ABC’s DT-3 Channel): Chargers-Chiefs (3:00) and Packers-Lions (8:15)
NFL Network (games also airing on MOVIES, FOX’s DT-2 Channel or BUZZR, FOX’s DT-4 Channel): Raiders-Broncos (3:00) and Saints-Panthers (8:15)
FOX for FS1 (games also airing on whichever of MOVIES or BUZZR is not simulcasting the NFLN telecast, seventh pick at 3:00 PM, eighth pick at 8:15 PM): Browns-Bengals (3:00) and Cardinals-Rams (8:15)
CBS for CBSSN (games also airing on DECADES, CBS’s DT-2 Channel, eighth pick at 3:00 PM, seventh pick at 8:15 PM): Colts-Jaguars (3:00) and Falcons-Buccaneers (8:15)
In the home markets of the games airing on the cable and sub-digital channels, those games air on the over-the-air outlets with the game slated for CBS, FOX or ABC otherwise airing on CBSSN/Decades, NFLN/MOVIES or BUZZR, FS1/MOVIES or BUZZR or ESPN/LivWell or LAFF.
The digital sub-channels are used for this as simulcasts of the cable games to keep certain elected officials happy and assure everyone can see whatever games they want to see the last week with no restrictions or blackouts.
This is how the last week should work.
Sorry for all the bold in the last post, the HTML marker did not come out as it was supposed to.
Sorry Walt about the HTML Maker. So I think David Howell is right that the Week 17 Game for the Final Sunday Night Football Game of the Regular season which you know is Game 256 will likely be 49ers Seahawks it will be a good NFC West Championship Game and also a good ratings draw And Big Ratings Bonanza. Unless both NFC West teams do anything crazy. But Texans Titans is also a good matchup too.
Walt’s Week 17 model (similiar to what we see with the NCAA BB Tourney) could be an indication of what the NFL on TV might look like when the new contracts start in a few years. (2023?). DirectTV may not like it, though unless the league makes up for that loss through increased deals with the other media partners. I also think some divisional realignment (mainly in the AFC) is due but that’s a topic for the off-season.
Now it’s a matter of how quickly they will make 49ers-Seahawks the SNF Finale. Would they do it fast enough for NBC to actually be able to run promos for that during tonight’s Saturday Night Live given how hyped that show is (Eddie Murphy is hosting)?
49ers Win so they can clinch the division and home field next week with a win over SEA. (SEA should win tomorrow to remain tied with SF) Lock it in as your Week 17 SNF finale! (What else could possibly go there at this point?) Rams are out so that gives MIN a playoff berth. I’m sure the NFL will (at the very least) move both NFC North matchups to the late window no matter what happens with GB-MIN Monday night. And then it’s just a matter of whether those games get cross-flexed as Walt suggested which would be a great idea IMO. The only thing really holding up any decision now is the DAL-PHI game, so I’m sure we’ll have an announcement as usual during SNF. I don’t see any AFC games being moved since BUF lost to NE.
With the Niners winning tonight, that all but guarantees that week 17 SNF will be 49ers-Seahawks. Whether the Seahawks win or lose tomorrow, week 17 will be for the NFC West no matter what, along with possible home field advantage
I’m guessing NBC won’t make the announcement until around 8:00 pm ET Sunday once the afternoon games are over, so that the NFL can make all the week 17 schedule changes official at once, since there’ll be some games (Titans-Texans? Steelers-Ravens? etc.) that get moved to 4:25 pm ET as well
Hi all. Yes, I agree that 49ers/Seahawks should be the choice for Sunday Night Football in Week 17, but in recent years the NFL has scheduled games that affect the same seedings battles, at the same time.
Thus if New Orleans beats Tennessee today, I see a 50% chance that we’ll see no Sunday Night Football game in Week 17. But I hope the other 50% sanity prevails and they choose to play the game we all think should be there.
If the NFL no longer cares that Sunday Night Football, in Week 17, will effect others playing earlier in the day, then this game has already been chosen. Then NFL would just be waiting to see what else happens today to decide the full Week 17 schedule.
Go Pack Go tomorrow night in Minnesota. 🏈🏈🏈🙂🙂🙂🏈🏈🏈
Likely scenario I see is this:
NFC East: Regardless of what happens tonight, PHI-NYG and WAS-DAL are at 1:00 PM. If the Eagles win today, I suspect they are split between FOX & CBS as the main 1:00 PM games to the entire country since only the NFC East winner advances.
NFC North: A lot depends on whether the Vikings concede the NFC North to the Pack because the Pack are expected to easily beat the 3-10-1 Lions next Sunday. Both are likely to be at 4:25, however, because Pack-Lions could still be for the #2 seed in the NFC.
NFC South: Saints-Panthers also likely at 4:25 as the #2 seed is in play. Falcons-Bucs will be at 1:00.
NFC West: No-brainers as already noted.
AFC East: NYJ-BUF at 1:00 as Bills are locked into the #5 seed. MIA-NE depends largely on KC-CHI result but that could be at 1:00 regardless
AFC North: PIT-BAL depends on today, CLE-CIN at 1:00.
AFC South: TEN-HOU could be at 4:25 regardless because of it also having WC implications. IND-JAX at 1:00
AFC West: I could see where the NFL asks Denver for permission to move their game up to 11:00 AM local time so OAK-DEN can be at 1:00 PM with LAC-KC as that would allow MIA-NE to also be at 1:00. Would be simpler on a lot of fronts.
So they just announced that SF-Sea will be the night game, just as everyone expected. I’m assuming the rest of the day’s schedule will be announced later tonight
SF-SEA already confirmed as the SNF game. Clearly the right call even if we don’t yet know which seeds are on the line.
My guess is that if it’s the 1 seed for the winner and the 5 for the loser, they might announce the playoff schedule mid-game? (Of course, a tie could change that, and the reverse game came awfully close to producing one…)
It’s now official, 49ers-Seahawks flexed to SNF next week
Only question now is which week 17 games get moved to 4:25 pm ET in the late afternoon window. My guess:
CBS 1:00 pm ET
Jets-Bills
Browns-Bengals
Colts-Jaguars
Dolphins-Patriots
Chargers-Chiefs
CBS 4:25 pm ET
Steelers-Ravens
Titans-Texans
Raiders-Broncos
FOX 1:00 pm ET (if Cowboys have clinched NFC East)
Falcons-Bucs
Eagles-Giants
Redskins-Cowboys
FOX 4:25 pm ET (if Cowboys have clinched NFC East)
Packers-Lions
Bears-Vikings
Saints-Panthers
Cardinals-Rams
FOX 1:00 pm ET (if Eagles win week 16)
Falcons-Bucs
Packers-Lions
Bears-Vikings
Saints-Panthers
FOX 4:25 pm ET (if Eagles win week 16)
Eagles-Giants
Redskins-Cowboys
Cardinals-Rams
Jay:
Still think if the Eagles win later today WAS-DAL and PHI-NYJ are split between FOX and CBS as the main 1:00 PM ET games to the entire country since only the NFC East is at stake in that game.
Walt:
No way does FOX lose one of the NFC East games to CBS. Has that ever happened before in week 17? Would be an unprecedented crossflex
Just a post script to my previous comment… I could see Chargers-Chiefs and Dolphins-Patriots at 4:25 pm ET. The NFL might want the Pats, Chiefs, and Texans all playing at the same time since they’ll be battling for seeds 2-4. Wouldn’t want the Texans locked in as the #4 seed with nothing to play for at 4:25 pm if the Chiefs and Pats won earlier
Hi all. I hadn’t seen it confirmed, but thank you for the info. Was it on TV or nflcommunications.com? I am going to that site now and see if it’s there.
Jay:
I could see it here since both games can be at 1:00 as the NFC East has no effect on any other playoff seeding, I think FOX would take that over having nothing but meaningless games at 1:00.
FOX also would get some cross-flexes the other way. You could give FOX Steelers-Ravens and (if it means anything) LAC-KC at 4:25 in return for giving up one of WAS-DAL or PHI-NYG so both NFC East games are the main 1:00 PM games and if need be first preference of playoff time slots.
Just announced on SNF: Titans-Texans, Steelers-Ravens, Colts-Jaguars, Redskins-Cowboys, and Eagles-Giants moving to 4:25 pm ET
So with the NFC East title still up for grabs, FOX gets the NFC East games in the late window. I assume Buck-Aikman will call Eagles-Giants, since the Eagles control their destiny for the NFC East, plus the New York market means massive ratings for FOX
On CBS they have all the AFC teams in play for the #6 seed (Steelers, Titans, Raiders) in the late window. Colts are out of it, but a win by them helps the Raiders in a potential tiebreaker scenario. Interesting thing though is both the Ravens (who clinched AFC home field) and the Texans (who could be locked in to the #4 seed if the Chiefs win tonight and win at 1:00 pm ET next week) could rest their starters. I believe the Titans control their destiny due to tiebreakers, so in a “win-and-in” scenario we’ll probably see Titans-Texans as the Nantz-Romo game leading CBS in the late afternoon
Schedule now confirmed.
CBS have four interconnected games for a WC spot at 4:25 – TEN-HOU, PIT-BAL, OAK-DEN, IND-JAX. Yes, the latter matters, because OAK can win a multi-way tiebreaker at 8-8 if and only if IND are in it.
FOX have the NFC East games, plus the forced-late ARI-LAR which will presumably get the most limited distribution possible.
That leaves eight games at 1pm, with CLE-CIN as the apparently necessary crossflex dump off from CBS to FOX. The main thing to be sorted at 1 is the NFC North and what the seeding outcomes are for SNF.
@Jay – yup, Titans are win-and-in after the Steelers loss. And they might now get to play backups if KC win tonight, as there is approximately zero chance of them losing to the Chargers at Arrowhead. (I speak as one of the ten Chargers fans.) The Titans could legitimately win a playoff spot because not all meaningful games are being played at once.
This could be yet another reason to move week 17 to a Championship Sunday-type schedule, and if it plays out that way for real this deep in the CBA and possibly TV negotiations, I think there’s a very real chance it might even happen. Wouldn’t be the first time it happened this decade, even – my Chargers backdoored into the 6 seed in 2013 by beating the backups of 5-seed-locked KC (and then won the subsequent playoff game, because it was @ Bengals). That game was relevant because we were in the same kind of situation the Raiders are in this year but the multiple games we needed a certain result from all got played in the early window.
Just have all games in one conference at 3 and all games in the other at 6:40. It’s by far the easiest solution to this.
Playoff predictions
Sat 1:30 pm Pacific
Bills at Texans. AFC south special on ESPN/ABC
Sat 5 pm
Snow game at NFC north winner
Sun 10 am
AFC 6-seed at KC on CBS
Sun 1:30 pm
Seattle at Philly on Fox
Divisional
Sat 1:30 pm
Seahawks at 49ers on Fox
Sat 5 pm
Chiefs at Patriots on CBS
Sun 10 am
Texans at Ravens on CBS
Sun 1:30 pm
Vikings at Saints on Fox
Would have been smarter IMO to have kept PHI-NYG (FOX) and WAS-DAL (in this case moved to CBS) at 1:00 PM since the NFC East has no bearing on any other seeding. It would have satisfied many Giants season ticket holders who refuse to go to games that are 4:25 or prime time and the local Giants broadcasters on WFAN who actually pleaded to keep the game at 1:00. Likely issue was the station managers of FOX stations in Washington and Dallas likely pleaded to keep their game on FOX and not lose it to CBS for obvious reasons. Also suspect local officials in KC asked their game not be moved to 3:25 local time and it’s also possible NFL didn’t want both LA teams in the late slot given both are out of it.
This is why the NFL should go to all games in one conference at 3:00, the other at 8:15 PM ET the last week and divide up all the games between all of the broadcast partners. Maybe you do that and throw DirecTV some bones for losing the last week and maybe for NBC have them open with games on Wednesday AND Thursday night in Week 1 with teams that played those two nights then playing in Week 2 on Thursday Night Football as a FOX-only game with the NFLN-only TNF games in Weeks 3-4 and TNF extended to Week 16, possibly with that week being between teams that played Saturday in Week 15.
why is colts-jagaurs at 4:25, it is meaningless?
Hi Daniel,
Colts actually are important for the chances of the Raiders making the playoffs. Otherwise, yeah, it would seem to be meaningless.
Jeff
Go Pack Go tonight in Minnesota 🙂🏈🙂🏈
If we had the 3:00/8:15 PM ET set up, here’s how I think would have gone:
NBC (first pick): Steelers at Ravens (3:00) and 49ers at Seahawks (8:15, actual SNF game)
CBS: Titans-Texans (2nd pick @ 3:00) and Eagles-Giants (3rd pick @ 8:15)
FOX: Dolphins-Patriots (3rd pick @ 3:00) and Redskins-Cowboys (2nd pick @ 8:15)
ABC (being used to keep elected officials happy, fourth pick): Chargers-Chiefs (3:00) and Saints-Panthers (if Packers win tonight) OR Bears-Vikings (if Vikings win tonight, 8:15)
ESPN (fifth pick, games also airing on LivWell or LAFF, ABC’s DT-2/3 channel): Raiders-Broncos (3:00) and Packers-Lions (8:15)
NFL Network (sixth pick, also airing on MOVIES or BUZZR, (FOX’s DT-2/4 Channels): Colts-Jaguars (3:00) and Saints-Panthers (if Vikings win tonight) OR Bears-Vikings (if Packers win tonight, 8:15)
FOX for FS1 (also airing on whichever of MOVIES or BUZZR is NOT simulcasting the NFL Network game): Jets-Bills (seventh pick at 3:00 PM) and Falcons-Bucaneers (eighth pick at 8:15 PM)
CBS for CBSSN (also airing on DECADES, CBS’s DT-2 Channel): Browns-Bengals (eighth pick at 3:00) and Cardinals-Rams (seventh pick at 8:15).
My playoff schedule predictions as of now depend on the seedings:
WILD CARD
Saturday
4:30 EST: @Chiefs unless Steelers are the wild card; if that happens Bills @Texans (ABC/ESPN). I believe that the Bills are popular enough that this game can be moved out of this timeslot unless the Steelers get in, in which case both brands are way too popular to be in this timeslot.
8:15: Vikings-Packers if the game is at Lambeau; if the Vikings host NFC West Loser@NFC East Winner. I just do not see a primetime game happening in Minneapolis. (NBC)
Sunday
1:00 EST: @Texans unless Steelers are the wild card; if that happens Steelers@Chiefs. See above. (CBS)
4:30: NFC West Loser@NFC East Winner unless Vikings host Packers (FOX)
DIVISIONAL
Saturday
4:35 EST @Saints (NBC, who has an NFC divisional this year): I see this happening for 2 reasons; one is that the Superdome is the site of the College Football National Championship, and it would be two days after this game. I am sure New Orleans is begging for this game to be as early as possible. The other reason is below in other NFC game.
8:35 EST @Patriots (CBS). Mahomes-Brady is too good not to be in primetime if it happens
Sunday (remember the time changes!)
3:00 EST @Baltimore (CBS)
6:30 EST @NFC West Winner (FOX). If a Seahawks-49ers matchup happens a third time, it would be unfair for FOX, the main NFC network, to get none of them.
Well Titans-Chiefs was the ABC/ESPN WIld Card game two years ago, so I guess it could go either way.
Here’s how I see for the postseason (NOTE: the playoff machine I’m using has the matchups click this link to go there is where the seedings come from, I believe this year it’s ESPN/ABC-NFC Wildcard, NBC-AFC Wild Card & NFC Divisional):Saturday 1/4, 4:35 PM ET (CBS): Bills at Texans.Saturday 1/4, 8:15 PM ET (NBC): Raiders at Chiefs (I have the combination of games working to where the Raiders miraculously make the playoffs). NBC I think would want this game as last game for the Oakland Raiders.Sunday 1/5, 1:00 PM ET (ESPN and ABC): Vikings at Saints. Saints are the 3 seed based on tie-breakers.Sunday 1/5, 4:40 PM ET (FOX): NFC West loser (more likely Seahawks) at Eagles. If it is the Seahawks, ironically, the game that got flexed out of SNF due to what would have been a ton of unintended consequences to keep that game in the time slot winds up in the main slot on WC weekend.Saturday 1/11, 4:35 PM ET (FOX): @Packers. Hard call here.Saturday, 1/11, 8:15 PM ET (CBS): @Patriots. Kraft loves the Saturday night slot and likely would ask to be scheduled in this spot.Sunday, 1/12: 3:00 PM ET (NBC): @49ers. "Early" Sunday slot prevents any potential mismatches if it happens the Eagles (assuming they win the NFC East) win their game.Sunday, 1/12: 6:40 PM ET (CBS): @Ravens. Ravens get "stuck" with the late game on Sunday.
Trying again, this is how I untended it to look:
Here’s how I see for the postseason (Links are in the other post immediately above this one):
Saturday 1/4, 4:35 PM ET (CBS): Bills at Texans.
Saturday 1/4, 8:15 PM ET (NBC): Raiders at Chiefs (I have the combination of games working to where the Raiders miraculously make the playoffs). NBC I think would want this game as last game for the Oakland Raiders.
Sunday 1/5, 1:00 PM ET (ESPN and ABC): Vikings at Saints. Saints are the 3 seed based on tie-breakers.
Sunday 1/5, 4:40 PM ET (FOX): NFC West loser (more likely Seahawks) at Eagles. If it is the Seahawks, ironically, the game that got flexed out of SNF due to what would have been a ton of unintended consequences to keep that game in the time slot winds up in the main slot on WC weekend.
Saturday 1/11, 4:35 PM ET (FOX): @Packers. Hard call here.
Saturday, 1/11, 8:15 PM ET (CBS): @Patriots. Kraft loves the Saturday night slot and likely would ask to be scheduled in this spot.
Sunday, 1/12: 3:00 PM ET (NBC): @49ers. “Early” Sunday slot prevents any potential mismatches if it happens the Eagles (assuming they win the NFC East) win their game.
Sunday, 1/12: 6:40 PM ET (CBS): @Ravens. Ravens get “stuck” with the late game on Sunday.
David:
The reason I said 8:15 (actually in my case moved back from 7:00 PM ET) and not 6:40 is specifically so CBS could air “60 Minutes” to the Eastern and Central Time Zones at its regular time before the late games and not need to waist an FCC waiver on that. “60’s” viewers are the ONE group that WILL complain to the FCC as they are the one group that remembers when we used to have the old “prime time access” laws that mandated 7:00-8:00 PM ET be news or children’s programming. Especially with Trump having a personal vendetta against the NFL (dating back to 1986) AND much of the audience for “60” that actually would complain to the FCC is also a large chunk of Trump’s voter base, he would try to “stick it” to the NFL by reinstating the old laws that would force the NFL to go back to 1:00 and 4:00 PM ET like it used to be not realizing the unintended consequences that would go way beyond the NFL and sports for that matter.
David,
I remember that KC/SD game in 2013, because a lot of the nation was switched from the Denver @ Oakland game to the Kansas City @ San Diego game. The Chargers backdoored into the 6 seed by beating the backups of 5-seed-locked KC.
Were Going Out With A Bang on Sunday Night With The 49ers Seahawks and I was Right. This Is A Good Way To Wrap Up The Regular Season. Join Us Again Next Year For NBC Sunday Night Football in 2020 See Yah.
Playoff Schedule Predictions (based on current standings, all times ET)
Wild Card Saturday – Jan. 4
4:35 pm – #5 Bills vs. #4 Texans (ABC/ESPN)
8:15 pm – #6 Vikings vs. #3 Saints (NBC)
Wild Card Sunday – Jan. 5
1:05 pm – #6 Titans vs. #3 Chiefs (CBS)
4:40 pm – #5 Seahawks vs. #4 Eagles (FOX)
Divisional Saturday – Jan. 11
4:35 pm – lowest remaining NFC seed vs. #1 Niners (NBC)
8:15 pm – lowest remaining AFC seed vs. #1 Ravens (CBS)
Divisional Sunday – Jan. 12
3:05 pm – highest remaining NFC seed vs. #2 Packers (FOX)
6:40 pm – highest remaining AFC seed vs. #2 Patriots (CBS)
Championship Sunday – Jan. 19
3:05 pm – AFC Conference Championship (CBS)
6:40 pm – NFC Conference Championship (FOX)
Some Thoughts:
– NBC usually has first dibs on WC games, often times played Saturday night. However, the success of NBC’s game late Sunday last year, leading in to the Golden Globes, was a big ratings boon. Will NBC try and replicate that success again this season, or was it a one-time deal? NBC might have been in a perfect situation last year where they leveraged Seahawks-Cowboys to FOX (the most attractive WC game last year on paper, and perhaps NBC’s original choice) in exchange for the late Sunday WC slot, in which case they were happy to “settle” with Eagles-Bears (although not Dallas, still two huge TV markets and popular franchises). As of now, there doesn’t seem to be a clear-cut “best” WC game from the group, but I think NBC picks Vikings-Saints because of the Drew Brees factor, the great playoff games in recent history between the two teams, and not wanting the Seahawks on back-to-back weeks; FOX then gets Seahawks-Eagles but keeps the late Sunday spot on WC weekend for maximum ratings. If the Cowboys win the NFC East, that of course changes the WC schedule equation. It’ll be interesting to see if NBC’s late Sunday WC game last year was a one-off, or a continuing trend in an effort to boost the Golden Globes’ ratings
– CBS takes Titans-Chiefs; the power of Mahomes and the great game these two teams played earlier in the year make it an easy selection for The Tiffany Network
– ESPN often gets the least attractive WC game on paper, so Bills-Texans seems like a lock for the early Saturday slot, since ESPN usually has the last pick (smaller fan bases, small TV market in Buffalo, lack of star power compared to other teams, etc.)
– I gave CBS both late games on divisional weekend, since FOX had both late games on divisional weekend last postseason. Normally, CBS and FOX split the late slots on divisional weekend; why FOX had both late slots last year I’m not sure. Was it because CBS hosted the late game on championship weekend last year, while also airing the Super Bowl? In reality, the two most attractive divisional playoff teams for TV may be the Ravens (the NFL’s best team right now + Lamar Jackson) and the Patriots (the NFL’s greatest franchise the past 20 years + Tom Brady), thus placing both squads in the late window. I gave the Patriots the Sunday slot over the Ravens, since I think a potential Chiefs-Patriots showdown is more ratings gold than Bills/Texans-Ravens
– Since NBC started broadcasting divisional round games in 2014-2015, they have rotated between AFC and NFC games. Since last year they aired Colts-Chiefs, it seems like they are on tap for an NFC game. FOX probably has the the first pick of the two, so they most likely select the Packers for divisional Sunday. In this case FOX is banking on the possibility of a Saints-Packers/Brees-Rodgers matchup in round 2, a ratings dream for FOX execs. NBC then gets the 49ers game in the early divisional window on Saturday
– If the Seahawks beat the Niners this week to win the NFC West, it would create massive changes to this potential playoff schedule. Assuming the Packers and Saints win, both those teams would get byes, perhaps the Packers remain on Sunday divisional weekend because of their drawing power, with the Saints on Saturday. Then, the Seahawks would host the Vikings, and the Niners would go on the road and play the NFC East winner on WC weekend. NBC may have a WC game where they get either the Seahawks or Niners on back-to-back weeks. Cowboys winning the NFC East instead of the Eagles makes things interesting for the networks, as I’m sure both NBC and FOX would love the opportunity to broadcast a 49ers-Cowboys playoff game. Idk if the Steelers (or Raiders) as the 2nd wild card instead of the Titans has much effect on how CBS chooses its WC game. The Steelers offense and current QB play may be awful, but because of the Steelers brand and Patrick Mahomes, CBS probably still takes Steelers-Chiefs if that’s the WC game
– Heads up, the Sunday divisional games are now on at 3:05 pm ET and 6:40 pm ET (instead of the traditional 1:05 pm ET and 4:40 pm ET times). I believe the NFL made this change last offseason for more schedule flexibility, in case they want a West Coast team to host a 3:00 pm ET/12:00 pm PT divisional Sunday game. Plus, the 3:05 pm ET and 6:40 pm ET kickoffs align with the start times on AFC/NFC championship weekend
Jay:
You are right on that. CBS had been reluctant to do that until now out of concerns about receiving a high number of complaints to the FCC for not airing “60 Minutes” with it ending before 9:00 PM Eastern Time as much of that audience is much older and generally (though not all) are early risers. The NFL likely would also have done it for WC weekend except for the aforementioned Golden Globes.
I believe last year was a one-shot deal with Wild Card weekend as I believe FOX specifically asked for both prime time Saturday slots last year (possibly to compensate for past loss of certain events). NBC I think is supposed to air the Red Carpet Show ahead of the Golden Globes at 7:00 PM ET/4:00 PM PT and they didn’t last year, PO’ing Dick Clark Productions, which produces that (FOX and the NFL in fact could have had to have paid DCP compensation for NBC having the late game on Sunday costing DCP airing the Red Carpet Show ahead of the Globes and I’m not sure the NFL wants to have to pay such again to give NBC the late slot on Sunday if that was the case).
This time around, I suspect what may happen whoever gets the late Sunday game one of the first two Sunday playoff rounds gets the late afternoon Saturday playoff game on the other, with NBC back to getting its Saturday WC Prime Time game and this time getting the “early” Sunday game while CBS gets the Saturday prime time window on Divisional weekend. Also, this to me will be the first time ESPN/ABC is NOT in the early Saturday WC window, instead getting the early game on Sunday with this time both AFC WC games on Saturday and both NFC WC games on Sunday (nothing says one in each conference has to be on each day) as noted in my own predictions upthread, especially if the Raiders miraculously make it in as I think NBC would want Raiders-Chiefs for Saturday primetime and they are NOT going to want to make the NFC West loser (especially if the Eagles win Sunday) have to fly cross-country for a Saturday playoff game.
Good predictions on the NFL playoff predictions, Jay. Here’s the thing. IF the Packers get the home field advantage and the Vikings win a road game on the wild card weekend, perhaps they would have to face each other at Lambeau Field on primetime NBC Sunday night football on the divisional round on Saturday January 11th. I don’t expect the Packers to be on Fox tv channel on the divisional round IF they get the home field advantage playoffs.
Some additional playoff schedule thoughts, post-early window:
– Huge shakeup in the AFC. Pats loss + Chiefs win now means the Chiefs are the #2 seed with a first round bye, and the Patriots are the #3 seed (vs. Titans/Steelers/Raiders). This means the Patriots will play on WC weekend for the first time since Jan. 2010
– The Pats would be an attractive option for either NBC or CBS. If NBC is able to get the Pats WC game (8:00 pm ET Saturday), that creates a huge domino effect: Bills-Texans goes to CBS (likely at 1:00 pm ET on Sunday). The biggest winner might be ESPN, as they could either get Vikings-Seahawks/Saints OR Seahawks/Niners-NFC East winner (either NFC WC game a much more attractive TV option than Bills-Texans). FOX likely has playoff priority over ESPN. However, if CBS gets the Patriots, then would they play at Saturday at 8:00 pm ET or Sunday at 1:00 pm ET? Lot of playoff schedule possibilities open up (and ripple effects to the Divisional round) now that the Pats are playing on WC weekend
– I do feel like the NFL will try and accommodate the NFC West loser, Niners or Seahawks, with their WC game late Sunday at 4:40 pm ET (since they would have to travel cross-country next week, and would be unfair to have to play on Saturday after a SNF game)
– With the Chiefs now the #2 seed, I think they would play late Sunday at 6:40 pm ET, with CBS anticipating a potential Patriots-Chiefs divisional round game. However, I could see the argument for the Ravens on Sunday, if CBS only receives a late window on divisional Saturday, in which case the Chiefs then play Saturday at 8:15 pm ET
– Packers winning guarantees a first round bye for them. So now the final bye will go to either the Niners (as a #1 seed if they win) or the Saints (as a #2 seed if the Niners lose tonight). Packers probably play on Sunday either way, since they’re arguably a bigger TV draw than Niners or Saints for FOX. Plus, if the Saints got a bye with a Niners loss, the Saints would probably need to play on Saturday Jan. 11 anyway, since the Superdome is hosting the CFB Natl Championship on Monday Jan. 13
We’ll play it by ear for which tv channel the Packers get on the NFL Divisional Round next month, Jay. It’s either NBC or Fox. One way or the other.
Jay:
They better hope the 49ers win tonight.
If the Seahawks win tonight OR the game ends in a five-quarter tie, it creates a potentially HUGE headache for the NFL, as the Saints would be hosting on Divisional weekend and because of hotel space situations in New Orleans, they might actually have to play that on *Friday* 1/10 as the CFB Playoff Final in the first place had to be pushed back a week to Monday 1/13 (it was originally scheduled for Monday 1/6) due to a convention January 3-5 called “Wizard World” that took up enough hotel space that those coming to NO for the CFB Title game could not in most cases have gotten a hotel room until late Sunday 1/5, along with other events forcing that to be pushed back to Monday 1/13. The CFB Playoff Committee and elected officials in New Orleans likely had to get assurances there would be sufficient hotel space for those coming Friday 1/10 or Saturday 1/11 for the CFP Title Game and that could including forcing the Saints to have to play a home divisional playoff game on Friday 1/10.
That would obviously if that did happen force the NFL to have BOTH NFC Wild Card games on Saturday (with FOX likely getting in that scenario the prime time slot for WC Saturday plus what would be a prime time slot for a *Friday* Divisional Playoff game) so whoever plays the Saints has at least five days rest before that game as opposed to four if it were played on Sunday. NBC would likely in that scenario get the early slot on Sunday (as they have an AFC Wild Card game this time) and the prime time Saturday slot on Divisional weekend BUT with only ONE game on Saturday that might be in that case moved up to a 7:35 PM ET kickoff in order to best make sure Saturday Night Live (which is new on Sat. 1/12) starts on time and CBS possibly winding up with both Sunday games at 2:30 and 7:00 PM to best assure the first game finishes before the second starts.
That’s why IMO the NFL is *praying* the 49ers win tonight to avoid a potential mess caused by the Saints being the 2 seed.
I presume the possibility of a Saints home playoff game – any weekend in the buildup – had to have been considered when booking both the CFB game and Wizard World for those dates. But I have no doubt that the two combined are why they aren’t on the same weekend. (Amusingly I’m reminded of how the 9/11-delayed SB36 in the Superdome got bumped to a date with the National Automobile Dealers Association convention in NOLA; that ultimately got moved to the original SB weekend date, but the NFL literally had to offer NADA various financial and promotional considerations to get them to move up at short notice.)
I’d certainly say that a Seahawks win tonight means the resultant @NO divisional game is locked into the 4:40 ET Saturday slot. I really want to say SF-PHI would go Sunday 4:40, but I also really think CBS get that slot this year given that the new divisional round late Sunday spot bumps 60 Minutes and they haven’t had a 4:40 playoff game in two years… but any other spot for the Eagles game is brutal for the visitors, who are either getting short rest or a 10am local kick in addition to being lumbered with a road game against a worse team.
Someone – be it the NFC West runners-up or CBS – are getting shafted here.
Fortunately, it currently looks like SF have got this anyway…
Dave:
The Sunday Divisional round time slots are 3:00 and 6:40 PM ET this year, a change from past years. You’d likely see whoever isn’t the Saints at home in that scenario in the Sunday 3:00 PM ET slot unless you had the nightmare scenario where the CFB got their way and the Saints had to play on *Friday* night to accommodate the CFB.
Here’s my prediction. Following assumptions have been made:
* CBS get the Sunday 4:40 WC spot
* SF win tonight
WC WEEKEND:
Saturday 4:35: BUF-HOU (ESPN/ABC)
Saturday 8:15: SEA-PHI (FOX)
Sunday 1:00: MIN-NO (NBC)
Sunday 4:40: TEN-NE (CBS)
DIVISIONAL ROUND:
Saturday 4:35: @BAL (CBS)
Saturday 8:15: @SF (NBC)
Sunday 3:00: @KC (CBS)
Sunday 6:40: @GB (FOX)
Given that locking 4:40 Sunday to CBS means the Eagles, already unworthy of a home playoff game, get a visitor on either a short week or a comical 10am body clock kick, I’ve given them the former. At least the primetime kickoff matches their last game and their circadian rhythms as a West Coast team.
Semi-accidentally, I’ve got both 6@3 WC games on Sunday and also both 2 seeds playing on Sunday. That means that the only teams that could possibly play a divisional round game on short rest are 6 seeds.
Between FOX and CBS, one has two games and the other three. In this case, I’ve given FOX two, and offset that with them both being primetime games involving proven top ratings draws. CBS get the two worst timeslot draws of the Divisional Round (although Sunday 3:00 leads decently from a postgame show into a start-on-time 60 Minutes…) plus that 4:40 Sunday slot they haven’t had in multiple years (and not in the WC round since the Tebow home playoff game – reversing a pattern of most of the 2010s where the 4:40 Sunday slot went to FOX on WC weekend and CBS the following week.)
Dave:
The likely scenario is this:
FOX gets the late slot next Sunday (assuming the 49ers win tonight) with it possible ESPN/ABC (which has the other NFC WC game) getting the early Sunday slot since NBC is AFC WC and NFC Divisional (with Vikings-Saints likely at 1:00 and Seahawks-Eagles at 4:40). Given Kraft loves the Saturday primetime slot in the playoffs, I suspect NBC gets its Saturday wild card game with Titans-Pats while CBS has the early Saturday slot with Bills-Texans.
Divisional weekend has CBS with both the Saturday primetime and Sunday late slots, with potentially Pats-Chiefs in Saturday prime time and Bills-Texans winner at Ravens on Sunday, though those could be reversed. FOX probably gets the Packers in early Saturday and NBC gets early Sunday with the 49ers.
CBS has the early game and FOX the late game for the conference title.