Last night I talked about how teams are dealing with the collapse of the regional sports network market and how teams with expiring deals with the collapsing Bally Sports and AT&T Sportsnet groups – the Phoenix Suns, the Vegas Golden Knights, and the Utah Jazz – are embracing broadcast television as the way to reach a broad segment of fans, coupled with direct-to-consumer products to reach fans without access to linear television stations otherwise. Given all the other developments happening in the space there’s no guarantee that this model will triumph, especially with Rob Manfred still committed to MLB trying to take over rights to as many teams as he can, but it’s certainly a promising approach for a subset of teams. But what station groups are best positioned to take advantage of the situation and potentially pick up rights for teams whose deals are expiring or being shaken up by the ongoing proceedings, and where might teams looking for a new home end up? How much will teams embrace this approach compared to finding new RSN homes or returning to their current ones?
The largest independent English-language station groups are Nexstar, owners of the former Tribune stations; Sinclair, who purchased the former Fox Sports RSNs but whose ties to Diamond Sports Group have largely been severed and who reached a deal with the Utah Jazz; and Scripps, Tegna, and Gray. These groups, with the possible exception of Tegna, own a decent chunk of traditional-entertainment non-Big Four stations across the country, which are the main candidates to air the bulk of games involving professional teams, depending on how much Nexstar wants to hold stations to air the CW schedule in full. But CBS and Fox shouldn’t be counted out either; Fox owns the MyNetworkTV “network” but has been de-emphasizing the My brand even on their own owned stations in favor of attaching “plus” to the brand of their co-owned Fox station, while CBS recently announced it was dropping the CW affiliation from its stations following the Nexstar takeover and explicitly identified local sports as a business they might want to use to fill time on those stations. Besides owning lots of stations, these companies are also relatively flush with revenue that can give them an advantage in securing rights, though even then it’s unclear how many they can afford, especially before seeing how much revenue local games can make for the teams that have already signed deals, which is why there’s going to be a lot of eyes on how the Suns, Jazz, and Knights deals work out.
Something else to consider is each station group’s ability to distribute games beyond each team’s immediate market, which was, in theory, a significant advantage of RSNs at the cable bundle’s peak as games on broadcast stations weren’t always distributed outside their home market. We saw in the other post how much Gray has thought through their distribution plans for AzFSEN to blanket the entire state, though it still leaves New Mexico, technically part of the Suns’ blackout territory, uncovered, and the Salt Lake City market covers the entire state of Utah through repeaters, though again the Jazz also claims territory in adjoining states such as Idaho, Wyoming, and Montana. Unlike in those areas, Scripps’ Golden Knights deal explicitly covers the team’s entire current blackout territory, with the press release announcing the deal advertising distribution not only into Reno, Nevada’s only other TV market, but also into most markets in Idaho, Montana, Utah, and Wyoming. Scripps has stations in Idaho, Montana, and Utah that they can use to distribute Knights games, but it’s not clear what’ll happen in Reno and Wyoming, though both Reno and Cheyenne have stations owned by other groups airing Ion on subchannels and that therefore have established business relationships with Scripps that could come into play.
In general, this consideration puts Tegna at a further disadvantage, as while they certainly do have a number of non-Big Four stations few of them are in close enough proximity to make a difference; on the other hand, Nexstar and Scripps have taken advantage of the “UHF discount” to own stations in over half the country as well as owning the CW and Ion networks, respectively, that they can, at least theoretically, use to further extend their reach onto affiliates, as I suggested for the Golden Knights. (This was one reason I once suggested the creation of a “network” that would be more of a brand for stations focusing on airing games from local sports teams, similar to the old Fox Sports Net at its peak in the 90s and 2000s.) If Tegna has anything going for it it’s being the group with the second-most revenue behind Nexstar; conversely, Scripps’ big problem is how far behind the other companies mentioned they are in revenue. They’re only credited with $1.6 billion in revenue across their stations, and even the revenue for the whole company is only $2.45 billion, lagging behind the top six station groups. Scripps may have the most stated desire to bring in sports teams, but any concerted effort by Nexstar, Sinclair, and/or Gray could throw a wrench in the works.
As I said in the other post, the most immediate teams to keep an eye on are the Colorado Rockies, the last AT&T Sportsnet Rocky Mountain team not to have their future set, as well as the Minnesota Twins, whose deal with Bally Sports is set to expire after this season, as the other AT&T Sportsnet networks are likely to be taken over or replaced by their respective teams. The fate of the Rockies and Twins, though, depends on whether Manfred pushes them into following the same model as the Padres and D-Backs or allows them to go their own way, which also affects the Padres and D-Backs themselves if the current arrangement doesn’t continue after this season, as well as the Cleveland Guardians if Diamond elects to drop them instead of pay them at the end of the month. There’s also the potential that Diamond elects to end Bally Sports Arizona rather than keep it running with just the Arizona Coyotes, which would leave the Coyotes needing a new home as well. We should also look at the Cincinnati Reds, which Diamond had been making noise about dropping but seem to be holding on to at the moment (the Texas Rangers also fall into that category but are popular enough to potentially land on their feet with another RSN solution). Somewhat longer term, the Athletics’ pending move to Las Vegas would leave them needing to find some sort of distribution arrangement, and the NBA is expected to expand to Vegas and Seattle within the next few years after the league renegotiates new national TV agreements. Let’s look at these situations one by one, focusing primarily on full-power non-Big Four general entertainment stations within each market.
- Colorado Rockies: The most likely outcome here, if Manfred allows it, would be to find a place on Altitude Sports and Entertainment, which currently airs the games of the Nuggets and Avalanche – both owned, along with Altitude, by E. Stan Kroenke – but has little to speak of in the summer months. A potential problem, though, is that the Rockies have one of the smaller fanbases in MLB. If Altitude passes, or if Manfred vetoes a move there but allows a broadcast station deal, the leading contenders among broadcast stations would be KTVD, owned by Tegna; KWGN, owned by Nexstar; and Scripps, which owns independent station KCDO, based in Sterling to the northeast but integrated with Denver’s ABC affiliate KMGH, and KCDO’s low-powered repeater KSBS-CD, though Ion station KPXC is owned by a separate company. The only other station Tegna owns in Rockies territory is Twin Falls, ID’s KTFT, a low-powered repeater of Boise NBC station KTVB, so they’re unlikely; that would make Nexstar, which owns stations in Colorado Springs as well as the states of Utah and New Mexico, the favorite for distribution outside the Denver market itself.
- Minnesota Twins: If Diamond and the other owners can get Manfred to back down on his hardline positions, a renewal with Bally Sports North is probably most likely, possibly following similar lines as the deal Diamond offered the D-Backs. The Twins would be particularly inclined to take such an offer given their history when they attempted to run their own RSN, Victory Sports One, twenty or so years ago, and while Comcast, as far as I can tell, is the dominant cable provider in the Twin Cities potentially allowing the Twins to start a new RSN with them, Diamond would still be in plenty good shape with the Timberwolves and Wild so going against them might not be a good idea. If the Twins opt to go the broadcast route, the options are WFTC, owned by Fox; WUCW, owned by Sinclair; KPXM, owned by Scripps; and KSTC, owned by locally-owned Hubbard Broadcasting. None of these companies own stations in the Dakotas, and in Iowa Sinclair might have an edge over Scripps with stations covering Sioux City and Ottumwa, while Hubbard actually has the most coverage in parts of Minnesota beyond the Twin Cities.
- San Diego Padres: San Diego might be the ideal market for local broadcast distribution, as being hemmed in between the Los Angeles market and Mexico means a local team doesn’t have much in the way of other markets to claim. Unfortunately, that also means the selection of potential stations is kind of limited; Mexico-based XETV 6 for a long time affiliated with various US-based English-language networks, but has since given up and started airing Mexico-based networks. But if the Padres want to return to an RSN, that might actually mean returning to Diamond; Cox, the leading cable provider in the area, used to air Padres games on their own network but doesn’t seem to be up for doing so now (beyond distributing the MLB-produced Padres and D-Backs broadcasts on their YurView network). Add it all up and the most likely broadcast station for the Padres to go with might be KUSI, which Nexstar is in the process of buying to provide a true CW station for the area rather than hanging out on a subchannel of a Big Four station.
- Las Vegas Athletics and NBA: Other than KMCC, the most intriguing broadcast partner for Las Vegas-based teams might be KVCW, owned by Sinclair. The reason is actually Reno-based independent station KNSN, branded as Nevada SportsNet and currently powered by the sports of the University of Nevada, Reno, which would almost make too much sense as the home of Las Vegas-based baseball and basketball teams. Sinclair also owns a station in Boise and could use the A’s to supplement the Jazz on KJZZ.
- Seattle Supersonics: Most likely is that the return of the Sonics would be on Root Sports, but the broadcast-based options here are CBS-owned KSTW, Fox-owned KZJO, Scripps-owned KWPX, and Tegna-owned KONG, with Weigel Broadcasting-owned KFFV, with Weigel’s MeTV network on their primary feed, as a long shot. Tegna is actually in better shape here than in most parts of the country, and not just because KONG aired Sonics games towards the end of the team’s original run; Belo, former owner of the KING-KONG (geddit?) duopoly, used to run Northwest Cable News that incorporated content from Belo’s stations in Seattle, Portland, Spokane, and Boise. The Spokane station, KREM, is also part of a duopoly with CW affiliate KSKN. Also worth considering: the possibility that the Sonics sign with Root and the Portland Trailblazers opt out of their deal with Root in favor of local broadcast distribution. In that case, their best options would be Scripps’ KPXG, Nexstar’s KRCW, and Gray’s KPDX. Only Gray owns stations anywhere else in Oregon, a low-powered “semi-satellite” of KPDX.
- Arizona Diamondbacks and Coyotes: If this is the end of the line for Bally Sports Arizona, the options, besides Gray, are Fox’s KUTP and Scripps’ KASW, plus KPPX, the Ion station owned by the same company as Denver’s. Scripps’ edge here would be owning the CW affiliate in Tucson as well. This might be the market where Scripps is in the best shape for distributing teams beyond their home market, and yet they still might be behind Gray; the Big Four affiliations in Yuma are owned by two companies with relationships with one another, making Gray’s impending station in the area the only other option. Scripps would still be the best choice for the Coyotes, but that would be cold comfort given their miniscule fanbase and prospect of leaving town.
- Cleveland Guardians: Bally Sports Great Lakes was once SportsTime Ohio, a network owned by the baseball team and operated by NBC affiliate WKYC, then owned by Gannett before its broadcast stations were transitioned to Tegna. STO aired Cleveland baseball games for seven seasons before Fox bought the network, and continued to operate under the STO name until the Bally Sports rebrand. The Guardians could attempt to buy the network back but I couldn’t blame them for not wanting to get back into that business given STO’s struggles; the main cable provider in the area is Spectrum, and I don’t know that they’re in the mood to run another RSN or that the Guardians are interested in another network with the sort of distribution troubles Spectrum’s LA-area RSNs have (though at this point those RSNs’ troubles aren’t that much worse than any other). The only full-power general-entertainment English-language non-Big Four stations in the area are Gray’s CW affiliate WUAB and a pair of stations owned by the same outfit as the Denver and Phoenix Ion stations, though the Guardians (or Cavaliers) could have sentimental value for Scripps as ABC affiliate WEWS is their flagship station. The Guardians claim most of Ohio outside Cincinnati, extend up to Buffalo, and include eastern Kentucky and western West Virginia; Gray has stations in Charleston, WV, as well as Toledo, but Scripps has stations in Buffalo and Columbus as well as Charleston.
- Cincinnati Reds: This is the most likely team for Diamond to drop if things continue to go south for them, which could have implications for other teams in the state. The only full-power general-entertainment station that looks to be an option is Sinclair-controlled WSTR, though Gray’s WBQC-LD (branded as WKRP) could sneak into the running. Cincinnati is where Scripps is headquartered and where they run ABC affiliate WCPO, if that’s relevant, and they also own Ion station WKOI in the Dayton market.
- Columbus Blue Jackets: Similarly, on the off chance Bally ends up pulling out of Ohio entirely, the Blue Jackets would need to find a new home, and Sinclair-controlled CW affiliate WWHO would seem to be the most logical choice, though Scripps’ WSFJ could be an option as well.
Without knowing how Diamond’s negotiations with Comcast and DirecTV go, or how much Manfred sticks to his hardline position, it’s hard to know how most of these situations end up. That’s especially the case for the Twins and Guardians, where Diamond could continue to run RSNs featuring other teams with or without them, meaning if Diamond comes out of bankruptcy more-or-less intact, and Manfred allows them to, the teams could well end up crawling back to them (with the Guardians and Padres only having relatively momentary interruptions in the latter portion of the current season, and the Guardians potentially rejoining the other teams on Bally Sports Ohio), but the Bally Sports RSNs could just as easily be taken over by MLB or other interests or otherwise be left in no position to take them back. Las Vegas, Arizona, and to a lesser extent San Diego seem to be the most likely markets where teams would go with broadcast stations over RSNs, depending on what happens with Bally and Manfred’s ambitions, and assuming Manfred allows broadcast stations to provide coverage of MLB teams where he might otherwise want to take full control, I would expect the Padres to go to KUSI, the Diamondbacks to go to Gray, the Coyotes to go to Fox or Scripps, and the Athletics to go to Sinclair. The Twins and Guardians would go back to Bally if they can, but if not I predict the Twins to go to KSTC and the Guardians to go to WUAB; similarly I would expect the Rockies to go to Altitude if they can, and either KTVD or KWGN if they can’t.
You might notice I’m predicting Gray to take on two more teams on top of the Suns in the next six to nine months, and I’m not sure that’s actually realistic; as I said before taking on sports teams could be a major strain on station groups’ budgets. The problem is, I don’t know what else the Guardians could do if Manfred prevents them from rejoining Diamond or any other RSN option, given the limited resources and reach of the other potential stations in the market and how good an option taking a spot on a subchannel of a Big Four station would be, and while the D-Backs could end up with Fox or Scripps, Gray would seem to have the most motivation and the most to offer – but on the other hand, the Guardians probably have a larger fanbase. Basically, even if Manfred allows teams to adopt the path set out by the Suns, there’s a decent chance it won’t work for everyone and that some teams will have to find their way to an alternative distribution mechanism if Manfred won’t allow them to return to RSNs. As I suggested in the other post, the Braves and Cardinals are valuable enough to secure spots on RSNs even if Diamond completely collapses, so if Diamond emerges from bankruptcy proceedings in anything resembling an intact state, they might end up putting pressure on Manfred to allow them to stay there and do the same for other teams in the territory of Bally RSNs.
Basically, there’s a lot of moving parts to this situation, and anyone who tells you they know where to catch these teams in nine months is lying.