College Football Lineal Title

Can you feel the excitement?

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Can you feel the excitement? College football season is about to start! Football season – pro and college – is always momentous here on Da Blog. Before my recent webcomics-driven popularity (well, sort of), quite a few people were attracted to Da Blog by my Sunday Night Football predictions. Soon, Da Blog will be taken over by football, especially on Mondays, as my various football-related projects kick into gear. As such, my football hub is all set up for the new season.

The College Football Lineal Title – won by any team that defeated the last champion – will soon take over Da Blog. I made some changes: the Princeton Title is now the Princeton-Yale Title (and I could call it the Walter Camp Memorial Title), reflecting their shared dominance over the early days of college football, and while the 2004 Auburn and Utah titles were unified in last year’s Sugar Bowl, we got a new split title as none of last year’s title holders made the BCS Title Game. Also, every title now has a field listing each team’s next title defense. Missouri and USC are the only two teams with any real shot at losing their titles in Week 1, as Georgia and LSU play 1-AA (oops, “Championship Subdivision”) teams, but the 2004 Auburn-Utah and 2008 BCS titles are most likely to be unified – unless Missouri loses to Illinois and USC loses to Ohio State. (And I said that about the Princeton and Auburn titles last year, because of the same conference.) There’s an NFL analog as well, but it’s never had more than one dissenting title at a time, and there’s no split title this year.

Then there’s my College Football Rankings, my personal, non-proprietary computer rankings that aim to strip out all the bias and distrust and bring some clarity to the world of college football. The ranking formula is unchanged since last year, despite my being tempted to change the C Rating calculation from being based on conference ratings to being based on B Ratings of opponents (a change you’ll probably see next year). The conference layout of college football is also unchanged from last year, as is the fact that you won’t see any rankings until after Week 4, so the only thing different from this description is that OT games are considered to have a margin of victory of 0; the only difference between the winner and loser is being recorded as a winner and loser. That is also equivalent to a score ratio (described at the link) of 0, which gets averaged in A Rating as .5, and OT games give B Points similar to a I-AA game: only the home field modifier regardless of outcome. As exciting as college football OT is, it’s a joke and has nothing whatsoever to do with the actual play of the game. It’s more of a skills competition, akin to penalty kicks in soccer. If drives occurred the way they do in actual play, as opposed to starting within field goal range, I might give it more weight.

Next week I’ll talk about the NFL Lineal Title and talk more about the SuperPower ranking concept and why I’m not doing it this year. And tomorrow I’ve got another new college football feature.

New rankings and other errata

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You know what I just realized? The 2004 Auburn and Utah titles are going to be unified at the Sugar Bowl. Meanwhile, the BCS Title Game won’t involve an undefeated team and neither team holds any lineal title. Arkansas will defend its Princeton Title at the Cotton Bowl (“Just a few days ago, Missouri was playing for a spot in the BCS Championship game. While unsuccessful in that match, they did manage to get into another National Championship Game,” writes HeavyweightFootballChamps.com), and Illinois will defend the 2007 Boise State title in the Rose Bowl. I’m not sure if I should create a new lineal title or not. Heaven knows that both the Princeton and 2004 Auburn titles managed to stay in the SEC all year without being unified, so if Ohio State and Illinois both win their conferences, there’s no guarantee any imaginary “2007 BCS Championship” title would be instantly unified with 2007 Boise State. If LSU wins, and the two SEC titleholders win their bowls, it’s a lot less likely that LSU will completely escape winning a lineal title, or at least its lineage escaping being unified with one.

On the other hand, they may be being forced into going 12 rounds, but nothing’s stopping the Patriots and its run with the NFL Lineal Title, as shown by the latest logo to be X’ed out. But there are definitely concerns. This is now two straight weeks the Pats have been taken to the wire… by a mediocre team. The Steelers are no mediocre team. The Pats’ struggles have shown their defense to be porous against the run, and the Steelers have Willie Parker. And the New Steel Curtain just might be up to the task of stopping Tom Brady.

So the Steelers have no chance.

Maybe I’ve been watching too much wrestling, but New England is going to basically crush the Steelers – and I had been thinking about picking the Steelers just to stop the winning at some point. The point spread, I’ve heard, is -10 New England; I am guaranteeing that the Pats are going to cover and win by at least that much, or I don’t know what I’ll do. Maybe you could suggest something.

Other news and notes:

  • WHY do people keep hyping the fall of the Lions as some sort of “return to reality”? ALL FOUR TEAMS THEY’VE LOST TO IN THIS STREAK ARE LEGIT PLAYOFF CONTENDERS, EVEN THE CARDINALS! No wonder the college football polls don’t take strength of schedule into account (unless it helps them hose a non-BCS team), because no one else in any sport does either! Granted, you can say the same thing about the remaining four opponents, but I still believe in the 10-win guarantee, I’m sticking with it to the end, and win or lose I’m still picking the Lions over the Chargers and Chiefs.
  • It’s Chicago’s turn to win this week. And I’m picking the Redskins to lose for the rest of the season. Exactly what line has the Redskins as a favorite? The Redskins do have the SuperPower Ranking edge, but only barely, so no Upset Special.
  • Picking Houston over Tampa Bay at home as the Upset Special, as the Bucs may be the creation of a weak schedule. A second upset special has the Cardinals beating the Seahawks, as I’m taking that stat from last time and picking the Cards over all >.500 teams (and likely making that the, or at least an, Upset Special) and against them when facing a <.500 team. I might - might – make an exception for the Pats or Dolphins.

Programming note

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Please tune in to Da Blog this Monday at 4 PM PST for the Golden Bowl Playoff Selection Show, where I will announce the bracket for our simulated playoff and open first-round voting.

All college lineal titles have been updated, as has the Chase for 19-0. However, due to “minor server issues” on Freehostia’s end, the Week 13 College Football Rankings are delayed. Even though I told it to upload at the same time as the lineal titles… huh. Let’s hope this doesn’t become a trend…

Laptop Update

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I installed a second version of XP on my hard disk and my computer is once again operating semi-normally. The web site has been updated with two weeks‘ worth of College Football Rankings, changes in both lineal titles, and one week’s update of the SuperPower Rankings. This week’s SuperPower Rankings (and the picks) will wait until at least tomorrow.

College Football Rankings after Week 8

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In two weeks, Arizona State-Oregon could determine who goes to the Rose Bowl, if not the National Championship Game. But at the moment it’s not looking to be on television at all outside of the states in question, because the TV schedule for this particular week was set for the Pac-10 before the season.

Here‘s how the rankings look after eight wild and wacky weeks.

Also, early in the year Florida held the Princeton title and LSU held the 2004 Auburn title. Those two have now flipped.

What a long, strange trip it’s been

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What a wild, wacky college football season it’s been. The raft of upsetitis has now spread to the top teams. USC is the best team in the country? Whoops, they just lost to Stanford, the dregs of the Pac-10. LSU is the best team? Whoops, they just lost to Kentucky. Now Ohio State is the best team. Maybe that’s good news for Michigan State, who they play this week.

A lot of people say it’s all because of increased parity. If so, that’s a wonderful argument for a playoff. Well, if you want a playoff, here’s what you’re going to have to get for it to be logical: 16 teams. Every conference champion gets a spot, even in the Sun Belt. That leaves five at-large bids. If you’re a good team, you better win your conference championship, or you’re fighting for fewer at-large bids than there are BCS conferences. I’d be willing to consider a 24-team format as well, about one-third the size of the NCAA Basketball tournament, which scales about right. That has the added bonus of increased competition at the top to nab one of the eight byes, as well as allowing us to preserve most of the existing bowls while adding some logic and order to it as well.

At the end of the season, I’m going to simulate a playoff format like this, using the following criteria. I seed the field 1-16 and assign each pod of four to a BCS bowl site for the second round. The first round will be held at higher-seed home sites, and the last two rounds will be held at whatever site the real-life BCS Championship Game is being held.

I seed the field and choose the at-larges using the same criteria the NCAA uses to pick its basketball tournament. For my purposes, that is: pure record, RPI, record in conference and out, road record, record in last 5 games, and individual RPI ranking, and status in playoff, of all teams played. I don’t weight the RPI the way the NCAA does for home and road and I choose the at-larges before seeding anyone. I also don’t use the BCS, my college football rankings, or any poll.

Once I have that down, I’ll start the simulated playoff. I determine who moves on based on polling visitors to Da Blog, despite having a piss-poor track record of people actually voting in my polls.

One downside to a playoff: It loses a lot of the justification for the I-A/I-AA split to exist. Just look at the Orwellian names the NCAA gave them: the existence of a playoff or not is the whole basis for the divisions’ identity.

The college football rankings will be here shortly. The lineal titles will also be updated to reflect the Kentucky upset.

New Home for My College Football Rankings

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The College Football Rankings join a long list of things making the march to the web site, but not because it’s ill-fit for Blogger under the status quo. It’s simply too hard to figure out, and then hand-code, the more flashy ranking page you saw last week, so I’m only posting the full, top-to-bottom rankings. Last week’s rankings are here and this week’s are here. You need something that views Rich Text Format files.

The lineal titles are also updated; in such a wild week, LSU and Ohio State actually held onto their titles. Whoda thunk?

Football Lineal Title Update

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The Football Hub is updated with all the wonderful lineal title changes of the past week. On the NFL side, Houston’s defeat of Carolina sets up a lineal title unification bout when the Colts face the Texans this coming week. Both of the college football titles that changed hands last week change hands again this week, and the 2004 Utah title is back in the hands of the team that created it.

Florida faces Ole Miss this coming week, while Utah faces UNLV, Ohio State faces Northwestern, and in the most likely title change (which isn’t saying much), LSU faces South Carolina. The 2004 Auburn Title is two weeks away from a potential unification with the Princeton Title; LSU needs to survive SC and Tulane, while Florida needs to survive Mississippi and Auburn. With Auburn’s struggles, SC is the most likely upset, but LSU is so strong it might not matter.

While my College Football Rankings won’t be released until this coming week, I can tell you one interesting fact about how they’re shaking out. Notre Dame is currently infamously embroiled in futility, and had I released the college football rankings this week, they would place dead last. Ouch.

Your Hub for All Things Football

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I’ve added a new section to the web site – Morgan Wick Sports – that will serve as a home base for the Lineal Titles, the SuperPower Rankings, and the College Football Rankings. This week’s SuperPower Rankings are now available there. Go to morganwick.freehostia.com/sports/football.

The NFL lineal title history is now located there as well, and the ATH Drinking Game is now here.