NFL

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it still says late games start at 4:15 ET instead of 4:25):

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 in 2006 and 2011, because NBC hosted Christmas night games those years and all the other games were moved to Saturday (and so couldn’t be flexed), but are otherwise protected after Week 5.
• In the past, three teams could appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. I don’t know how the expansion of the Thursday Night schedule affects this, if it does. No team starts the season completely tapped out at any measure; six teams have five primetime appearances each, but only the 49ers don’t have at least one game that can be flexed out. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 17):

• Selected game: Kansas City @ Denver.

Week 12 (November 24):

• Selected game: Denver @ New England.

Week 13 (December 1):

• Selected game: NY Giants @ Washington.

Week 14 (December 8):

• Selected game: Carolina @ New Orleans.

Week 15 (December 15):

• Selected game: Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh.

Week 16 (December 22):

• Tentative game: New England @ Baltimore
• Prospects: 9-3 v. 6-6; pretty lopsided, but the name value could still save it if it weren’t for the strong alternatives, and the Ravens are very much alive in the playoff hunt (then again, every AFC team that’s not the Texans – more on them in a bit – and Jags are).
• Protected games: Broncos-Texans (CBS) and Cowboys-Indians (FOX).
• Other possible games: CBS’ decision to protect Broncos-Texans over Colts-Chiefs was questionable at the time since the Texans definitely had the worst record of the four at 2-3 and seemed to be in a tailspin; now it seems to have given the Texans the kiss of death, as they haven’t won since (even losing to the freaking Jaguars!) and the Colts and Chiefs have as many losses between them as the Texans have themselves. But Colts-Chiefs will have to compete with the Saints-Panthers rematch, especially with CBS holding the doubleheader, and Cardinals-Seahawks and Bears-Eagles are waiting in the wings.
• Analysis: Cardinals-Seahawks is even more lopsided than the tentative and Bears-Eagles is a battle of two teams out of the playoffs when no team in the other two games has more than four losses. It basically comes down to Saints-Panthers and Colts-Chiefs, and while Fox would scream bloody murder at losing both halves of a divisional matchup (without even one of them falling in Week 17), especially twice in three weeks, under the “Chiefs-Broncos rule” the NFL would have been better served keeping the game in the Superdome on Fox; as a result, if both games have identical pairs of records I think the tie goes to Saints-Panthers (having the more name quarterbacks and teams doesn’t hurt). The game in the Superdome is this week with the teams holding identical records and is therefore irrelevant, but unless the Colts and Chiefs both win (putting it a full game ahead of Saints-Panthers) and the Ravens lose, CBS might be off the hook for its blunder of a protection. A Ravens win might be enough for the tentative to keep its spot, but a loss could very easily open the door for one of the other two games to waltz in.

Week 17 (December 29):

AFC Playoff Picture

DIVISION LEADERS	WILD CARD	WAITING IN THE WINGS
NORTH 48-4	59-3	5-7
6-6		5-7
SOUTH 38-4	66-6	5-7
5-7		5-7
EAST 29-3	6-6	4-8
6-6		4-8
WEST 110-2		4-8
9-3

NFC Playoff Picture

DIVISION LEADERS	WILD CARD	WAITING IN THE WINGS
EAST 47-5	59-3	6-6
7-5		5-6-1
NORTH 37-5	68-4
6-6
SOUTH 29-3	7-5
9-3	7-5
WEST 111-1
8-4

• Tentative game: None (NBC will show game with guaranteed playoff implications).
• Possible games: Eagles-Cowboys (the odds-on favorite), Packers-Bears, Ravens-Bengals, Jets-Dolphins, 49ers-Cardinals.

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it still says late games start at 4:15 ET instead of 4:25):

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 in 2006 and 2011, because NBC hosted Christmas night games those years and all the other games were moved to Saturday (and so couldn’t be flexed), but are otherwise protected after Week 5.
• In the past, three teams could appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. I don’t know how the expansion of the Thursday Night schedule affects this, if it does. No team starts the season completely tapped out at any measure; six teams have five primetime appearances each, but only the 49ers don’t have at least one game that can be flexed out. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 17):

• Selected game: Kansas City @ Denver.

Week 12 (November 24):

• Selected game: Denver @ New England.

Week 13 (December 1):

• Selected game: NY Giants @ Washington.

Week 14 (December 8):

• Selected game: Carolina @ New Orleans. A case could be made that this pick, as opposed to Lions-Eagles, actually wasn’t that far-thinking of the NFL, especially given the released protection on Chiefs-Broncos earlier in the year; see Week 16 below.

Week 15 (December 15):

• Tentative game: Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh
• Prospects: The Steelers’ 5-6 record now has them tied for second in the division (and in a six-way tie for the six seed), while the Bengals aren’t looking quite so strong as they were. If the Steelers keep winning, this game may yet keep its spot, especially given the lack of other options.
• Protected games: Packers-Cowboys (FOX) and Patriots-Dolphins (CBS).
• Other possible games: Cardinals-Titans and Jets-Panthers both involve other teams in the six-way tie for the AFC six seed, and if we’re talking about 5-6 teams we have to talk about Saints-Rams.
• Analysis: Honestly, at this point any other alternative probably needs the Steelers to lose to have any shot at overcoming the tentative game bias. Saints-Rams may be too lopsided to mention, and the best-case scenario for the other two might be 8-4 v. 6-6 with Bengals-Steelers sitting at 8-4 or 7-5 v. 5-7. That suggests it may be impossible to overcome the tentative game bias even if the Steelers do lose. Would NBC and the NFL be willing to overlook lopsidedness at 9-3 v. 6-6 going against 7-5 v. 5-7? It’s possible, especially with the TV-friendliness of the Saints, Jets, and Panthers, and especially if 6-6 is good enough for a playoff spot, but I’m not going to count on it.
• Final prediction: Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers (no change).

Week 16 (December 22):

• Tentative game: New England @ Baltimore
• Prospects: 8-3 v. 5-6; pretty lopsided, but the name value could still save it if it weren’t for the strong alternatives, and the Ravens are very much alive in the playoff hunt (then again, every AFC team that’s not the Texans – more on them in a bit – and Jags are).
• Protected games: Broncos-Texans (CBS) and Cowboys-Indians (FOX).
• Other possible games: CBS’ decision to protect Broncos-Texans over Colts-Chiefs was questionable at the time since the Texans definitely had the worst record of the four at 2-3 and seemed to be in a tailspin; now it seems to have given the Texans the kiss of death, as they haven’t won since (even losing to the freaking Jaguars!) and the Colts and Chiefs have only two-thirds as many losses between them as the Texans have themselves. But Colts-Chiefs will have to compete with the Saints-Panthers rematch, especially with CBS holding the doubleheader, and Cardinals-Seahawks and Bears-Eagles are waiting in the wings with Steelers-Packers a very dark horse.

Week 17 (December 29):

AFC Playoff Picture

DIVISION LEADERS	WILD CARD	WAITING IN THE WINGS
NORTH 47-4	59-2	5-6
2 tied at 5-6		5-6
SOUTH 37-3	65-6	5-6
5-6		5-6
EAST 28-3		5-6
2 tied at 5-6		4-7
WEST 19-2		4-7
9-2		4-7

NFC Playoff Picture

DIVISION LEADERS	WILD CARD	WAITING IN THE WINGS (5-6)
EAST 46-5	58-3
6-5
NORTH 36-5	67-4
6-5
SOUTH 29-2	7-4
8-3	6-5
WEST 110-1	6-5
2 tied at 7-4	5-5-1

• Tentative game: None (NBC will show game with guaranteed playoff implications).
• Possible games: Eagles-Cowboys (the odds-on favorite), Packers-Bears, Ravens-Bengals, Jets-Dolphins, 49ers-Cardinals, Rams-Seahawks.

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it still says late games start at 4:15 ET instead of 4:25):

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 in 2006 and 2011, because NBC hosted Christmas night games those years and all the other games were moved to Saturday (and so couldn’t be flexed), but are otherwise protected after Week 5.
• In the past, three teams could appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. I don’t know how the expansion of the Thursday Night schedule affects this, if it does. No team starts the season completely tapped out at any measure; six teams have five primetime appearances each, but only the 49ers don’t have at least one game that can be flexed out. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 17):

• Selected game: Kansas City @ Denver.

Week 12 (November 24):

• Selected game: Denver @ New England.

Week 13 (December 1):

• Selected game: NY Giants @ Washington.

Week 14 (December 8):

• Tentative game: Atlanta @ Green Bay
• Prospects: 2-8 v. 5-5. Ouch.
• Protected games: Colts-Bengals (CBS) and Seahawks-49ers (FOX).
• Other possible games: Lions-Eagles is becoming interesting, but when one team already has five losses, it can’t compete with…
• Analysis: It’s Panthers-Saints. It’s Cam Newton v. Drew Brees. It’s a team I’ve been fascinated by ever since they rode the league’s most exciting offense Newton’s rookie season to a 6-10 record, making it inevitable they would go defense with their first-round pick in the draft, only to have Luke Kuechly’s Defensive Rookie of the Year season ruined by Newton’s sophomore slump, but now are in prime position to make the playoffs and could take the lead in the division with a win. It’s Riverboat Ron v. Bountygate Sean. It’s Carrie Underwood blandly singing “Panthers and the Saints, a division showdown” (seriously, “Waiting All Day for Sunday Night” is no “Are You Ready for some Football”, but at least Faith Hill didn’t seem like she was going through the motions singing the lines that were written for someone else and actually seemed like she wasn’t completely incongruous singing about football even though Underwood has dated Tony Romo in the past). And perhaps most importantly, it’s a battle between two teams with as many losses between them as the Eagles have by themselves with the division lead on the line. What could keep this game from being flexed in is that other Panthers games could also be flexed in each of the next two weeks, including the return match of this game, so the existence of Lions-Eagles as a safety valve may cause the NFL to hold off for now, but that would be more likely if CBS had protected Colts-Chiefs in two weeks instead of Broncos-Texans, and even then I still wouldn’t pick against this game.
• Final prediction: Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints.

Week 15 (December 15):

• Tentative game: Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh
• Prospects: The Steelers’ 4-6 record now has them tied for second in the division, while the Bengals aren’t looking quite so strong as they were. If the Steelers keep winning, this game may yet keep its spot, especially given the lack of other options.
• Protected games: Packers-Cowboys (FOX) and Patriots-Dolphins (CBS).
• Other possible games: Jets-Panthers is the only game not involving a team below .500 (there’s a comment on the Last-Minute Remarks post telling me to look out for Seahawks-Giants if the Giants keep winning, but not only would that require the Seahawks to lose as well to keep from being horribly lopsided, it would also require the Steelers to lose more to overcome the tentative game bias).

Week 16 (December 22):

• Tentative game: New England @ Baltimore
• Prospects: 7-3 v. 4-6; pretty lopsided, but the name value could still save it if it weren’t for the strong alternatives, and the Ravens are very much alive in the playoff hunt (then again, every AFC team that’s not the Texans – more on them in a bit – and Jags are).
• Protected games: Broncos-Texans (CBS) and Cowboys-Indians (FOX).
• Other possible games: CBS’ decision to protect Broncos-Texans over Colts-Chiefs was questionable at the time since the Texans definitely had the worst record of the four at 2-3 and seemed to be in a tailspin; now it seems to have given the Texans the kiss of death, as they haven’t won since and the Colts and Chiefs have half as many losses between them as the Texans have themselves. But Colts-Chiefs will have to compete with the Saints-Panthers rematch, and Cardinals-Seahawks and Bears-Eagles are waiting in the wings.

Week 17 (December 29):

AFC Playoff Picture

DIVISION LEADERS	WILD CARD	WAITING IN THE WINGS
NORTH 47-4	59-1	4-6
3 tied at 4-6		4-6
EAST 37-3	65-5	4-6
2 tied at 5-5		4-6
SOUTH 27-3	5-5	4-6
4-6		4-6
WEST 19-1		4-7
9-1

NFC Playoff Picture

DIVISION LEADERS	WILD CARD	WAITING IN THE WINGS (4-6)
EAST 46-5	57-3
5-5
NORTH 36-4	66-4
6-4
SOUTH 28-2	6-4
7-3	6-4
WEST 110-1	5-5
2 tied at 6-4	5-5

• Tentative game: None (NBC will show game with guaranteed playoff implications).
• Possible games: Eagles-Cowboys (the odds-on favorite), Packers-Bears, Jets-Dolphins, 49ers-Cardinals, Rams-Seahawks.

Week 13 (December 2):

• Tentative game: NY Giants @ Washington
• Prospects: 4-6 v. 3-7. The name value and NFC East tire fire helps, but these are the worse two teams in the division.
• Protected games: Broncos-Chiefs (CBS) and Bears-Vikings (FOX).
• Other possible games mentioned on last week’s Watch and their records: Cardinals (6-4)-Eagles (6-5), Titans (4-6)-Colts (7-3), Dolphins (5-5)-Jets (5-5), Bengals (7-4)-Chargers (4-6).
• Impact of Monday Night Football: None.
• Analysis: Cardinals-Eagles is the only real contender left, with a definite leg up on second-place Dolphins-Jets. If you got rid of the team names and just looked at records, you would think the game between two six-win teams would be a shoo-in to be flexed in over a game between two six-loss teams, even with the tentative game bias. But the Cardinals are a massive weak link that basically no one knows about, and even the Eagles, especially with Michael Vick out and potentially losing his starting job, aren’t really as attractive as their NFC East brethren and Eli Manning v. RGIII. If one of the teams in the tentative game were the Cowboys, this game keeping its spot would be just as much a shoo-in as Cardinals-Eagles being flexed in would be if records were all that mattered. As it stands, even though I would be far from surprised to see Cardinals-Eagles flexed in and think this is pretty close to a toss-up, I still have to say…
• Final prediction: New York Giants @ Washington RG3’s (no change).

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it still says late games start at 4:15 ET instead of 4:25):

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 in 2006 and 2011, because NBC hosted Christmas night games those years and all the other games were moved to Saturday (and so couldn’t be flexed), but are otherwise protected after Week 5.
• In the past, three teams could appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. I don’t know how the expansion of the Thursday Night schedule affects this, if it does. No team starts the season completely tapped out at any measure; six teams have five primetime appearances each, but only the 49ers don’t have at least one game that can be flexed out. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 17):

• Selected game: Kansas City @ Denver.

Week 12 (November 24):

• Selected game: Denver @ New England.

Week 13 (December 1):

• Tentative game: NY Giants @ Washington
• Prospects: 3-6 v. 3-6. The name value and NFC East tire fire helps, but these are the worse two teams in the division.
• Protected games: Broncos-Chiefs (CBS) and Bears-Vikings (FOX).
• Other possible games: Thanksgiving weekend, paucity of good games; Cardinals-Eagles is the only game that doesn’t involve a team with a losing record. Titans-Colts, Dolphins-Jets, and Bengals-Chargers become options if you look at 4-5 teams.
• Analysis: None of these games offer much in the way of starpower, and none of them are so much better as to overcome the tentative game bias. Even discounting lopsidedness and name value, is 6-3 v. 4-5 really that much better than 3-6 v. 3-6? That’s not to say this game won’t get flexed out, but if both of its participants win this week there’s no way this game isn’t keeping its spot, it might be able to keep its spot with just one team winning, and the 4-5 teams need to win regardless. Still, you have to at least look at a 6-4 v. 5-5 game, as Bengals-Chargers would be (and as Titans-Colts could be even with a Colts loss), if the alternative is 3-7 v. 3-7.

Week 14 (December 8):

• Tentative game: Atlanta @ Green Bay
• Prospects: 2-7 v. 5-4. Doesn’t look good.
• Protected games: Colts-Bengals (CBS) and Seahawks-49ers (FOX).
• Other possible games: Panthers-Saints is looking very strong to give Cam Newton his first NBC game with only one game separating the two for the NFC South crown, and Lions-Eagles is also a dark horse.

Week 15 (December 15):

• Tentative game: Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh
• Prospects: If I told you before the season that this game would be 6-4 v. 3-6 after Week 9, and you didn’t have the bye week schedule on hand, would you have ever guessed that the Steelers would be the 3-6 team?
• Protected games: Packers-Cowboys (FOX) and Patriots-Dolphins (CBS).
• Other possible games: Jets-Panthers is the only game not involving a team below .500.

Week 16 (December 22):

• Tentative game: New England @ Baltimore
• Prospects: 7-2 v. 4-5; pretty lopsided, but the name value could still save it if it weren’t for the strong alternatives, and the Ravens might be climbing back into this thing.
• Protected games: Broncos-Texans (CBS) and Cowboys-Indians (FOX).
• Other possible games: Very surprised CBS chose to protect Broncos-Texans, a game involving a team that was 2-3 and in a tailspin at the time (and hasn’t won since), instead of Colts-Chiefs, two teams now leading their respective divisions and with three losses between them. Perhaps CBS had its eye more on getting Pats-Ravens back. But Colts-Chiefs will have to compete with the Saints-Panthers rematch, and Cardinals-Seahawks and Bears-Eagles are waiting in the wings.

Week 17 (December 29):

AFC Playoff Picture

DIVISION LEADERS	WILD CARD	WAITING IN THE WINGS
NORTH 46-4	58-1	4-5
2 tied at 4-5		4-5
SOUTH 36-3	65-4	4-5
4-5		4-5
EAST 27-2		4-5
5-4		3-6
WEST 19-0		3-6
8-1		3-7

NFC Playoff Picture

DIVISION LEADERS	WILD CARD	WAITING IN THE WINGS (5-5)
EAST 45-5	56-3
5-5
NORTH 36-3	66-3
2 tied at 5-4
SOUTH 27-2	5-4
6-3	5-4
WEST 19-1	5-4
6-3

• Tentative game: None (NBC will show game with guaranteed playoff implications).
• Possible games: Eagles-Cowboys (the odds-on favorite), Packers-Bears, Jets-Dolphins, 49ers-Cardinals, Rams-Seahawks.

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it still says late games start at 4:15 ET instead of 4:25):

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 in 2006 and 2011, because NBC hosted Christmas night games those years and all the other games were moved to Saturday (and so couldn’t be flexed), but are otherwise protected after Week 5.
• In the past, three teams could appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. I don’t know how the expansion of the Thursday Night schedule affects this, if it does. No team starts the season completely tapped out at any measure; six teams have five primetime appearances each, but only the 49ers don’t have at least one game that can be flexed out. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 17):

• Selected game: Kansas City @ Denver. Apparently CBS oh-so-graciously agreed to “voluntarily” give up its protection on this game to allow it to be seen by a national audience since they only had the singleheader this week; whether or not this has any impact on future weeks is unclear (especially since CBS still has no reason to protect Week 12), and CBS may end up getting paid back next year, but we may surmise from this the “Chiefs-Broncos rule”: if the singleheader network’s protected game is particularly strong, the NFL may overrule it and put it on NBC anyway. Presumably this will be less of an issue when the new contract kicks in next year, when games can move between CBS and Fox (especially since the general consensus seems to be that this is just to ensure a quality game in the late-afternoon doubleheader slot), except that Fox has a pretty strong game of its own in Niners-Saints; I would presume the NFL’s philosophy will be to make sure the two best games are in the two national television timeslots unless the NBC tentative game is good enough for the tentative game bias to kick in, but I have no idea how protection will work in the new contract.

Week 12 (November 24):

• Tentative game: Denver @ New England
• Prospects: 7-1 v. 7-2 and Manning v. Brady. No force on Earth could budge this game from this spot, which is why both networks chose to leave this week unprotected. (Does the fact Cowboys-Giants wasn’t protected say more about this game, or the NFC East tire fire?)
• Protected games: None.
• Other possible games: Chargers-Chiefs, Panthers-Dolphins, and Colts-Cardinals are the main options…
• Analysis: …but all involve 4-4 teams and the least lopsided is Panthers-Dolphins at 5-3 v. 4-4. None of them can actually get better than Broncos-Patriots, which is killer given the double whammy of the tentative game bias and the general national appeal.
• Final prediction: Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots (no change).

Week 13 (December 1):

• Tentative game: NY Giants @ Washington
• Prospects: 2-6 v. 3-5. The name value and NFC East tire fire helps, but these are the worse two teams in the division.
• Protected games: Broncos-Chiefs (CBS) and Bears-Vikings (FOX).
• Other possible games: Thanksgiving weekend, paucity of good games; Titans-Colts, Dolphins-Jets, and Bengals-Chargers are all options, but all involve 4-4 teams and none have much in the way of name value. And CBS has the doubleheader this week so the NFL isn’t rescuing Broncos-Chiefs for NBC again either.

Week 14 (December 8):

• Tentative game: Atlanta @ Green Bay
• Prospects: 2-6 v. 5-3. Doesn’t look good.
• Protected games: Colts-Bengals (CBS) and Seahawks-49ers (FOX).
• Other possible games: Panthers-Saints is looking very strong to give Cam Newton his first NBC game with only one game separating the two for the NFC South crown. Titans-Broncos is a dark horse but might be too lopsided to compete.

Week 15 (December 15):

• Tentative game: Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh
• Prospects: If I told you before the season that this game would be 6-3 v. 2-6 after Week 9, and you didn’t have the bye week schedule on hand, would you have ever guessed that the Steelers would be the 2-6 team?
• Protected games: Packers-Cowboys (FOX) and Patriots-Dolphins (CBS).
• Other possible games: Jets-Panthers is the best option at the moment, with Cardinals-Titans lurking, but overall this is a pretty uninspiring slate of options.

Week 16 (December 22):

• Tentative game: New England @ Baltimore
• Prospects: 7-2 v. 3-5; pretty lopsided, but the name value could still save it if it weren’t for the strong alternatives.
• Protected games: Broncos-Texans (CBS) and Cowboys-Indians (FOX).
• Other possible games: Very surprised CBS chose to protect Broncos-Texans, a game involving a team that was 2-3 and in a tailspin at the time (and hasn’t won since), instead of Colts-Chiefs, two teams now leading their respective divisions and with two losses between them. Perhaps CBS had its eye more on getting Pats-Ravens back. Saints-Panthers is also an option if Colts-Chiefs collapses, and Cardinals-Seahawks is waiting in the wings.

Week 17 (December 29):

• Playoff positioning watch begins next week because let’s face it, this is probably going to be an NFC East title game, which means more likely than not it’s going to be Eagles-Cowboys.

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it still says late games start at 4:15 ET instead of 4:25):

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 in 2006 and 2011, because NBC hosted Christmas night games those years and all the other games were moved to Saturday (and so couldn’t be flexed), but are otherwise protected after Week 5.
• In the past, three teams could appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. I don’t know how the expansion of the Thursday Night schedule affects this, if it does. No team starts the season completely tapped out at any measure; six teams have five primetime appearances each, but only the 49ers don’t have at least one game that can be flexed out. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 17):

• Tentative game: Green Bay @ NY Giants
• Prospects: 5-2 v. 2-6. A surefire bet to lose its spot under normal circumstances, but the name value and the tire fire that is the NFC East could save it when you consider the competition.
• Protected games: Chiefs-Broncos (CBS) and 49ers-Saints (FOX).
• Other possible games: There are no games not involving teams below .500. Chargers-Dolphins and Ravens-Bears come close as two games involving 3-4 teams.
• Analysis: The Giants are on bye this week, so they will enter the decision time with a win being their most recent game and, thanks to the NFC East tire fire, are currently only two games out of the division lead. Probably the best case scenario for both alternatives is being 6-3 or 5-3 v. 4-4 and Packers-Giants becoming 6-2 or 5-3 v. 2-6 with the Giants two and a half games out of the division lead – and the fact the Chargers are playing in Washington means they can’t really benefit from the Giants having sole possession of last place. I’m not sure that can overcome the tentative game bias given the name value of the teams involved, though since neither team is named the Cowboys I won’t be totally shocked if this game loses its spot.
• Final prediction: Green Bay Packers @ New York Giants (no change).

Week 12 (November 24):

• Tentative game: Denver @ New England
• Prospects: 6-1 v. 5-2 and Manning v. Brady. No force on Earth could budge this game from this spot, which is why both networks chose to leave this week unprotected. (Does the fact Cowboys-Giants wasn’t protected say more about this game, or the NFC East tire fire?)
• Protected games: None.
• Other possible games: Chargers-Chiefs and Colts-Cardinals are the main options, but both are pretty lopsided and neither has the appeal of Broncos-Patriots.

Week 13 (December 1):

• Tentative game: NY Giants @ Washington
• Prospects: 2-6 v. 2-5. The name value and NFC East tire fire helps, but these are the worse two teams in the division.
• Protected games: Broncos-Chiefs (CBS) and Bears-Vikings (FOX).
• Other possible games: Thanksgiving weekend, paucity of good games; Bengals-Chargers is the only remotely good game that’s not protected, but at 6-2 v. 4-3, don’t count it out, especially if the Chargers start climbing into wild card contention. Can it overcome the lack of name value?

Week 14 (December 8):

• Tentative game: Atlanta @ Green Bay
• Prospects: 2-5 v. 5-2. Doesn’t look good.
• Protected games: Colts-Bengals (CBS) and Seahawks-49ers (FOX).
• Other possible games: Panthers-Saints is the only game not involving a team below .500, but it too has a pretty good shot at 6-1 v. 4-3; lopsidedness is the main factor against it, but it’s only a two-game difference, Drew Brees and Cam Newton bring name value, the Panthers are third in the wild card race, and unlike the NFC East teams, the Falcons aren’t still alive for a playoff spot in a tire fire of a division (both Panthers and Saints are in the same division).

Week 15 (December 15):

• Tentative game: Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh
• Prospects: If I told you before the season that this game would be 6-2 v. 2-5 after Week 8, and you didn’t have the bye week schedule on hand, would you have ever guessed that the Steelers would be the 2-5 team?
• Protected games: Packers-Cowboys (FOX) and Patriots-Dolphins (CBS).
• Other possible games: Jets-Panthers is the only game not involving a team below .500, and it’s pretty uninspiring. Cardinals-Titans and Chiefs-Raiders are the biggest dark horses.

Week 16 (December 22):

• Tentative game: New England @ Baltimore
• Prospects: 6-2 v. 3-4; might become pretty lopsided, but even then the name value could save it and the Pats might be playing worse than their record anyway.
• Protected games: Broncos-Texans (CBS) and Cowboys-Indians (FOX).
• Other possible games: Very surprised CBS chose to protect Broncos-Texans, a game involving a team that was 2-3 and in a tailspin at the time (and hasn’t won since), instead of Colts-Chiefs, two teams now leading their respective divisions and with two losses between them. Perhaps CBS had its eye more on getting Pats-Ravens back. Saints-Panthers is also an option if Colts-Chiefs collapses, and Cardinals-Seahawks is climbing.

Week 17 (December 29):

• Playoff positioning watch begins Week 9, but let’s face it, this is probably going to be an NFC East title game, which means more likely than not it’s going to be Eagles-Cowboys.

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it still says late games start at 4:15 ET instead of 4:25):

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 in 2006 and 2011, because NBC hosted Christmas night games those years and all the other games were moved to Saturday (and so couldn’t be flexed), but are otherwise protected after Week 5.
• In the past, three teams could appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. I don’t know how the expansion of the Thursday Night schedule affects this, if it does. No team starts the season completely tapped out at any measure; six teams have five primetime appearances each, but only the 49ers don’t have at least one game that can be flexed out. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 17):

• Tentative game: Green Bay @ NY Giants
• Prospects: 4-2 v. 1-6. A surefire bet to lose its spot under normal circumstances, but the name value and the tire fire that is the NFC East could save it when you consider the competition.
• Protected games: Chiefs-Broncos (CBS) and 49ers-Saints (FOX).
• Other possible games: Right now Chargers-Dolphins is the only game available not involving a team below .500. Ravens-Bears, Browns-Bengals, and Jets-Bills are the next game to watch. Ravens-Bears is really the “least bad” of the bunch. The Giants may only need to pick up a second win for this game to pretty much be assured of keeping its spot.

Week 12 (November 24):

• Tentative game: Denver @ New England
• Prospects: 6-1 v. 5-2 and Manning v. Brady. No force on Earth could budge this game from this spot, which is why both networks chose to leave this week unprotected. (Does the fact Cowboys-Giants wasn’t protected say more about this game, or the NFC East tire fire?
• Protected games: None.
• Other possible games: Another Chargers game is the only one not to involve a team at or below .500, and it has the opposite problem: it’s against the Chiefs, making it 7-0 v. 4-3. The next option is the battle of 3-3 teams in Panthers-Dolphins. Yeah. This game ain’t budging.

Week 13 (December 1):

• Tentative game: NY Giants @ Washington
• Prospects: 1-6 v. 2-4. The name value and NFC East tire fire helps, but these are the worse two teams in the division.
• Protected games: Broncos-Chiefs (CBS) and Bears-Vikings (FOX).
• Other possible games: Thanksgiving weekend, paucity of good games, but color me surprised that Fox chose to protect a game involving a 1-4 Vikings team over Cardinals-Eagles (a battle of 3-3 teams but with importance in the NFC East tire fire); does it even have that much more name value? Oh wait, Adrian Peterson. Never mind. (Cowboys-Giants, and the NFC East in general, must REALLY suck for this to not be Fox’s unprotected week.) It may not matter, as Bears-Vikings currently has one more team above .500; the best options at the moment are Dolphins-Jets and Bengals-Chargers.

Week 14 (December 8):

• Tentative game: Atlanta @ Green Bay
• Prospects: 2-4 v. 4-2. Doesn’t look good at first glance, but look at the alternatives and it shouldn’t be counted out for keeping its spot.
• Protected games: Colts-Bengals (CBS) and Seahawks-49ers (FOX).
• Other possible games: Panthers-Saints is the only game not involving a team below .500. Browns-Patriots, Titans-Broncos, and Lions-Eagles are next on the list, followed by Rams-Cardinals.

Week 15 (December 15):

• Tentative game: Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh
• Prospects: If I told you before the season that this game would be 5-2 v. 2-4 after Week 7, and you didn’t have the bye week schedule on hand, would you have ever guessed that the Steelers would be the 2-4 team?
• Protected games: Packers-Cowboys (FOX) and Patriots-Dolphins (CBS).
• Other possible games: Jets-Panthers is the only game not involving a team below .500. Bears-Browns and Saints-Rams are next on the list, followed by Cardinals-Titans. Don’t see anything compelling enough for this game to give up its spot.

Week 16 (December 22):

• Tentative game: New England @ Baltimore
• Prospects: 5-2 v. 3-4; might become pretty lopsided, but even then the name value could save it and the Pats might be playing worse than their record anyway.
• Protected games: Broncos-Texans (CBS) and Cowboys-Indians (FOX).
• Other possible games: Very surprised CBS chose to protect Broncos-Texans, a game involving a team that was 2-3 and in a tailspin at the time (and hasn’t won since), instead of Colts-Chiefs, two teams now leading their respective divisions and with two losses between them. Perhaps CBS had its eye more on getting Pats-Ravens back. Saints-Panthers is also an option if Colts-Chiefs collapses.

Week 17 (December 29):

• Playoff positioning watch begins Week 9, but let’s face it, this is probably going to be an NFC East title game, which means more likely than not it’s going to be Eagles-Cowboys.

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it still says late games start at 4:15 ET instead of 4:25):

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 in 2006 and 2011, because NBC hosted Christmas night games those years and all the other games were moved to Saturday (and so couldn’t be flexed), but are otherwise protected after Week 5.
• In the past, three teams could appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. I don’t know how the expansion of the Thursday Night schedule affects this, if it does. No team starts the season completely tapped out at any measure; six teams have five primetime appearances each, but only the 49ers don’t have at least one game that can be flexed out. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 17):

• Tentative game: Green Bay @ NY Giants
• Prospects: 3-2 v. 0-6. A surefire bet to lose its spot under normal circumstances, but the name value and the tire fire that is the NFC East could save it when you consider the competition.
• Protected games: Chiefs-Broncos (CBS) and 49ers-Saints (FOX).
• Other possible games: Browns-Bengals and Ravens-Bears are the best games available at 4-2 v. 3-3, and Browns-Bengals sorely lacks name value. Ravens-Bears is possible, but seems iffy. Chargers-Dolphins also in the mix but suffers the same problem as Browns-Bengals, only more so.

Week 12 (November 24):

• Tentative game: Denver @ New England
• Prospects: 6-0 v. 5-1 and Manning v. Brady. No force on Earth could budge this game from this spot, which is why both networks chose to leave this week unprotected. (Does the fact Cowboys-Giants wasn’t protected say more about this game, or the NFC East tire fire?
• Protected games: None.
• Other possible games: Even with no protections whatsoever, Colts-Cardinals and Bears-Rams are your best games available, unless you consider Chargers-Chiefs to be insufficiently lopsided to rule out. Yeah. This game ain’t budging.

Week 13 (December 1):

• Tentative game: NY Giants @ Washington
• Prospects: 0-6 v. 1-3. The name value and NFC East tire fire helps, but these are the worse two teams in the division.
• Protected games: Broncos-Chiefs (CBS) and Bears-Vikings (FOX).
• Other possible games: Thanksgiving weekend, paucity of good games, but color me surprised that Fox chose to protect a game involving a 1-4 Vikings team over Cardinals-Eagles (a battle of 3-3 teams but with importance in the NFC East tire fire); does it even have that much more name value? Oh wait, Adrian Peterson. Never mind. (Cowboys-Giants, and the NFC East in general, must REALLY suck for this to not be Fox’s unprotected week.) Indeed, Cardinals-Eagles is a dark horse at best; the best options are Titans-Colts, Dolphins-Jets, Rams-49ers, and Bengals-Chargers. NBC better hope the tentative improves or one of these matchups (or one not listed here) starts looking a lot better or it’ll be in big trouble.

Week 14 (December 8):

• Tentative game: Atlanta @ Green Bay
• Prospects: 1-4 v. 3-2. Doesn’t look good at first glance, but look at the alternatives and it shouldn’t be counted out for keeping its spot.
• Protected games: Colts-Bengals (CBS) and Seahawks-49ers (FOX).
• Other possible games: Browns-Patriots, Titans-Broncos, Lions-Eagles – all games involving 3-3 teams and with only half the matchup providing name value at best. Rams-Cardinals is a dark horse.

Week 15 (December 15):

• Tentative game: Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh
• Prospects: If I told you before the season that this game would pit a team with four wins after Week 6 against a team with four losses, would you have ever guessed that the Steelers would be the team with the losses?
• Protected games: Packers-Cowboys (FOX) and Patriots-Dolphins (CBS).
• Other possible games: Saints-Rams is lopsided, Bears-Browns is mediocre, and Cardinals-Titans is a matchup of 3-3 teams. Don’t see anything compelling enough for this game to give up its spot.

Week 16 (December 22):

• Tentative game: New England @ Baltimore
• Prospects: 5-1 v. 3-3; might become pretty lopsided, but even then the name value could save it and the Pats might be playing worse than their record anyway.
• Protected games: Broncos-Texans (CBS) and Cowboys-Indians (FOX).
• Other possible games: Very surprised CBS chose to protect Broncos-Texans, a game involving a team that was 2-3 and in a tailspin at the time (and lost to the Rams after that), instead of Colts-Chiefs, two teams currently with at least a share of the lead in their respective divisions and two losses between them. Perhaps CBS had its eye more on getting Pats-Ravens back. Bears-Eagles and Cardinals-Seahawks are also options.

Week 17 (December 29):

• Playoff positioning watch begins Week 9, but let’s face it, this is probably going to be an NFC East title game, which means more likely than not it’s going to be Eagles-Cowboys.

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it still says late games start at 4:15 ET instead of 4:25):

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 in 2006 and 2011, because NBC hosted Christmas night games those years and all the other games were moved to Saturday (and so couldn’t be flexed), but are otherwise protected after Week 5.
• In the past, three teams could appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. I don’t know how the expansion of the Thursday Night schedule affects this, if it does. No team starts the season completely tapped out at any measure; six teams have five primetime appearances each, but only the 49ers don’t have at least one game that can be flexed out. Due to the unique circumstances I’m assuming Sunday’s Chargers-Raiders game doesn’t count as a primetime appearance. NBC appearances for all teams: BAL 3 (1 flexible), DEN 3 (1 flexible), NYG 3 (2 flexible), DAL 3, SF 2, SEA 1, CHI 1, PIT 3 (1 flexible), NE 3 (2 flexible), ATL 2 (1 flexible), HOU 2, WAS 2 (1 flexible), IND 2, GB 3 (2 flexible), MIN 1, NO 1, CIN 1 (flexible). All primetime appearances for all teams: BAL 4 (1 flexible), DEN 5 (1 flexible), NYG 5 (2 flexible), DAL 4, SF 5, SEA 4, CHI 4, PIT 4 (1 flexible), NE 5 (2 flexible), ATL 5 (1 flexible), HOU 4, WAS 5 (1 flexible), IND 4, GB 4 (2 flexible), MIN 3, NO 4, CIN 3 (1 flexible), PHI 2, SD 3, MIA 3, NYJ 2, STL 2, TB 2, CAR 2, all other teams 1.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 17):

• Tentative game: Green Bay @ NY Giants
• Prospects: 2-2 v. 0-5. A surefire bet to lose its spot under normal circumstances, but the name value and the tire fire that is the NFC East could save it when you consider the competition.
• Likely protections: Chiefs-Broncos (CBS) and 49ers-Saints (FOX).
• Other possible games: Browns-Bengals is the only remaining game involving two teams above .500. Maybe Jets-Bills, Chargers-Dolphins, or even Raiders-Texans can make a game of it, but none of those are particularly appetizing. Look for NBC to be stuck with Packers-Giants.

Week 12 (November 24):

• Tentative game: Denver @ New England
• Prospects: 5-0 v. 4-1 and Manning v. Brady. No force on Earth could budge this game from this spot. This could be a week that CBS especially decides to leave unprotected.
• Likely protections: Colts-Cardinals if anything (CBS) and Cowboys-Giants if anything (FOX).
• Other possible games: Colts-Cardinals is the only game involving two teams above .500, making Broncos-Patriots even more of a mortal lock.

Week 13 (December 1):

• Tentative game: NY Giants @ Washington
• Prospects: 0-5 v. 1-3. The name value and NFC East tire fire helps, but these are the worse two teams in the division.
• Likely protections: Broncos-Chiefs (CBS) and Cardinals-Eagles but more likely nothing (FOX).
• Other possible games: Thanksgiving weekend, paucity of good games, but Titans-Colts awaits if the Titans really are an above-.500 team, as does Dolphins-Jets.

Week 14 (December 8):

• Tentative game: Atlanta @ Green Bay
• Prospects: 1-4 v. 2-2. Not looking good.
• Likely protections: Colts-Bengals, Browns-Patriots, Titans-Broncos, or nothing (CBS) and Seahawks-49ers (FOX).
• Other possible games: Pretty much whatever games CBS didn’t protect. Raiders-Jets and Rams-Cardinals are dark horses.

Week 15 (December 15):

• Tentative game: Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh
• Prospects: If I told you before the season that this game would be 3-2 v. 0-4 after Week 5, and you didn’t have the bye week schedule on hand, would you have ever guessed that the Steelers would be the 0-4 team?
• Likely protections: Cardinals-Titans, Bears-Browns, Packers-Cowboys, or nothing (FOX) and Patriots-Dolphins (CBS).
• Other possible games: Again, pretty much whatever games Fox didn’t protect, with the caveat that I listed Packers-Cowboys for name value as much as anything.

Week 16 (December 22):

• Tentative game: New England @ Baltimore
• Prospects: 4-1 v. 3-2, so a pretty respectable matchup with a good chance to keep its spot.
• Likely protections: Colts-Chiefs (CBS) and Cardinals-Seahawks or Cowboys-Indians (FOX).
• Other possible games: Cardinals-Seahawks if left unprotected, and that’s about it. I doubt that threatens Pats-Ravens.

Week 17 (December 29):

• Playoff positioning watch begins Week 9, but let’s face it, this is probably going to be an NFC East title game, which means more likely than not it’s going to be Eagles-Cowboys.