NFL

Three of… well, the more interesting games of the weekend

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Interestingly, both of my lineal title games are among the more interesting games in college football this coming weekend. Florida will be facing Georgia, while USC plays Oregon in what could be an effective Pac-10 title game, even if it has minimal national title implications.

In the NFL, if, as I’ve heard, we’re now going to start seeing Miles Austin double-covered, will that mean Roy Williams will now have a chance to show Jerry Jones didn’t completely waste his money on him? (Yeah right, like the stinky Seahawks will have any effect on them.)

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 6

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NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind):

  • Begins Sunday of Week 11
  • In effect during Weeks 11-17
  • Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
  • The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:20 p.m. ET.
  • The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
  • The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:20 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
  • The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
  • Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
  • NFL schedules all games.
  • Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
  • Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and could not protect any games Week 17 in 2007. Unless I find out otherwise, I’m assuming that’s still the case this year, especially with no tentative game listed Week 17. When looking up info on what the protected games might be, I found out that games were protected after Week FIVE this year, and presumably in some of the previous years. Previously all I knew was that games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling.
  • Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.
  • A rule that may have come to light late last year but that, given its restrictiveness and lateness in coming to light, I’m having trouble accepting, is that the balance of primetime games taken from FOX and CBS can’t go beyond 22-20 one way or the other. The current tally is FOX 15, CBS 20; with tentative games, the tally is FOX 19, CBS 22. With this rule in place, Weeks 11 and 14-16 cannot be flexed away from NFC road games without making up for it in Weeks 12, 13, and 17, and even with that at least one more game would have to be flexed to an NFC road game in said weeks.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 22):

  • Tentative game: Philadelphia @ Chicago
  • Prospects: 3-2 v. 3-2, with a pretty good chance of keeping its spot.
  • Protected games according to this: Jets-Patriots (CBS) and Redskins-Cowboys (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Giants-Falcons is the main contender for a flex with Colts-Ravens fading and 49ers-Packers looking to be as good a game as the tentative.

Week 12 (November 29):

  • Tentative game: Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
  • Prospects: 4-2 v. 3-3, the Steelers are defending champs, and it’s a rivalry game – and the pickings are very slim otherwise. Very good chance of keeping its spot.
  • Protected games: Bears-Vikings (FOX).
  • Other possible games: It’s Thanksgiving Weekend, so there are some slim pickings for games. Jaguars-49ers and Colts-Texans each involve a team with the same record as the Ravens playing a team above .500, but one’s lopsided and the other has a worse average record.

Week 13 (December 6):

  • Tentative game: New England @ Miami
  • Prospects: A little mediocre at 4-2 v. 2-3, but anything can happen. PFT’s Mike Florio, which is now part of the NBC Sports site, seems to think the Dolphins are better than the 3-3 Jets and Jags.
  • Protected games: Cowboys-Giants (FOX) and Titans-Colts (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Eagles-Falcons and Vikings-Cardinals each involve a 2-loss team playing a team with a better record. Keep an eye on Jaguars-Texans.

Week 14 (December 13):

  • Tentative game: Philadelphia @ NY Giants
  • Prospects: It’s an NFC East game (always = ratings), and it’s 5-1 v. 3-2, currently the top two spots in said division (even if the Eagles are now tied for ). Pretty good shot to keep its spot, though weaker than last week.
  • Protected games: Chargers-Cowboys (CBS) and Packers-Bears (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Bengals-Vikings, Broncos-Colts, and Saints-Falcons remain strong contenders. But even with the NFC East’s struggles last week, Broncos-Colts is currently the only compelling candidate to flex away from Eagles-Giants (without a loss between them), given the NFL’s reticence to pull the flex.

Week 15 (December 20):

  • Tentative game: Minnesota @ Carolina
  • Prospects: Still lopsided, with the Vikings 6-0 and the Panthers 2-3, and CBS’ decision not to protect Bengals-Vikings last week really hurts its chances, since this is no longer NBC’s best shot to see Brett Favre. (Though since that comes in a week with a very attractive tentative game, it’s still relevant that NBC’s other two shots are the Cardinals game Week 13 and the Giants game Week 17, the latter of which will be affected by the game’s playoff implications.)
  • Protected games: Packers-Steelers (Fox) and Bengals-Chargers (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Of the games I mentioned last week, only 49ers-Eagles didn’t see a team fall to .500 last week. Still, keep an eye on Falcons-Jets and Bears-Ravens.

Week 16 (December 27)

  • Tentative game: Dallas @ Washington
  • Prospects: Could go either way, at 3-2 v. 2-4, but it is the NFL’s biggest rivalry so its chances of keeping its spot are probably better than even. If the Redskins continue to be the Raiders Lite, though…
  • Protected games: Ravens-Steelers (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Broncos-Eagles. Jets-Colts is now mostly a dark horse, along with Jaguars-Patriots.

Week 17 (January 3):

  • Playoff positioning watch begins Week 9.

Now that we’ve completely buried the sport of football, let’s talk some football!

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I’ve updated the lineal titles on the site, and if Jerry Jones cared about a piece of complete wankery only I care about, he’d be loving the Falcons win over the Bears. For the first time, the lineal title will be defended in The New Greatest Stadium in the History of History, aka Jerryworld, aka Cowboy Stadium.

I’m aiming for CFB rankings Tuesday, CFB schedule Wednesday, SNF Flex Sked Thursday, and RID Friday. I think this year I’m pretty much committed to doing the SNF Flex Sked Watch on Thursday at least through the end of college football season.

The twilight of the National Football League

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Watching Friday’s “Pardon the Interruption” last night, as Tony and Mike interviewed bestselling author Malcolm Gladwell (whose books I haven’t read but am very interested in nonetheless) about his New Yorker piece on the brains of NFL players, I was struck by a sudden realization.

The NFL – the undisputed king of the American sports landscape – could be in the waning days of its popularity if not existence.

For decades now, especially as boxing faded away with the decline of Ali and Tyson, the NFL has been the dominant sport on the landscape by appealing to our bloodlust. People tune in to the NFL each week, in part, because they want to see violence, brutality, and pain. Even if that may not be strictly true, it is true that for non-fans (especially for baseball fans), football is identified with that sort of violence and brutality, which fans are willing to take a blind eye to.

American culture, as well as other developments, may be turning against that tolerance to the NFL’s brutality. There’s been a confluence of events that’s started to show that people are starting to care more about the NFL’s brutality than in the past. Most of them are in the background for now, like the ongoing pension fight between retired players and the Player’s Association and pieces like Gladwell’s that actually quantify the effects (even in college and high school) and have led to an increased emphasis on concussions, but we’ve also seen the NFL itself make rule changes that have been seen by some as appealing to pollyannas, especially when it comes to protecting the quarterback. The NFL is becoming a more conscientious place about the well-being of its players, with “safety” becoming the watchword of the day, but nothing it can do might protect them as well as keeping them out in the first place.

I can’t link to a video of the PTI interview because ESPN hides almost all video from PTI and “Around the Horn” behind its “Insider” subscription wall, but I can tell you that the interview did touch on this very possibility. Gladwell suggested that to completely make the NFL safe might require massive rule changes that would turn the game into something else, and the prospect was raised of Congress potentially deciding the NFL needed to be banned and driven underground. Perhaps the most likely doomsday scenario, though, may involve parents deciding they cannot, in good conscience, allow their kids to play such a violent sport – or even kids making that decision themselves.

There’s another cultural development that doesn’t bode well for the NFL: our bloodlust is starting to move on back to combat sports, specifically MMA. If young people decide they would rather get their bloodlust filled by MMA, leaving the remaining new potential NFL fans no longer considering violence as a criterion in its favor (and maybe as a criterion against), there might be less direct connection to the league and the NFL may start suffering in comparison to less violent sports. Maybe this means baseball and basketball, maybe it means something new like soccer.

And this might affect the popularity of football on all levels, not just the NFL. Which would be one way to end college football’s playoff debate…

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 5

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NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind):

  • Begins Sunday of Week 11
  • In effect during Weeks 11-17
  • Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
  • The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:20 p.m. ET.
  • The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
  • The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:20 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
  • The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
  • Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
  • NFL schedules all games.
  • Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
  • Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and could not protect any games Week 17 in 2007. Unless I find out otherwise, I’m assuming that’s still the case this year, especially with no tentative game listed Week 17. When looking up info on what the protected games might be, I found out that games were protected after Week FIVE this year, and presumably in some of the previous years. Previously all I knew was that games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling.
  • Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. At this writing, no team is completely tapped out at any measure, although the Colts have five primetime appearances and can’t be flexed out of any of them, which is a problem since three other teams also have five primetime appearances and can be flexed out of them. NBC appearances for all teams: TEN 2, PIT 3 (1 flexible), CHI 3 (1 flexible), GB 1, NYG 4 (1 flexible), DAL 3 (1 flexible), IND 3, ARI 2, SD 1, ATL 1, PHI 4 (2 flexible), NE 3 (1 flexible), BAL 1 (flexible), MIA 1 (flexible), MIN 1 (flexible), CAR 1 (flexible), WAS 1 (flexible). All primetime appearances for all teams: TEN 4, PIT 5 (1 flexible), CHI 5 (1 flexible), GB 3, NYG 4 (1 flexible), DAL 5 (1 flexible), IND 5, ARI 3, SD 4, ATL 2, PHI 3 (2 flexible), NE 3 (1 flexible), BAL 3 (1 flexible), MIA 4 (1 flexible), MIN 3 (1 flexible), CAR 3 (1 flexible), WAS 3 (1 flexible), BUF 2, OAK 1, NYJ 2, DEN 3, NO 3, SF 2, CLE 2, HOU 1, JAX 1.
  • A rule that may have come to light late last year but that, given its restrictiveness and lateness in coming to light, I’m having trouble accepting, is that the balance of primetime games taken from FOX and CBS can’t go beyond 22-20 one way or the other. The current tally is FOX 15, CBS 20; with tentative games, the tally is FOX 19, CBS 22. With this rule in place, Weeks 11 and 14-16 cannot be flexed away from NFC road games without making up for it in Weeks 12, 13, and 17, and even with that at least one more game would have to be flexed to an NFC road game in said weeks.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 22):

  • Tentative game: Philadelphia @ Chicago
  • Prospects: 3-1 v. 3-1, with a pretty good chance of keeping its spot.
  • Protected games according to this: Jets-Patriots (CBS) and Redskins-Cowboys (FOX). Apparently the NFL’s most storied rivalry outweighs a game between two better teams in Giants-Falcons.
  • Other possible games: Colts-Ravens and Giants-Falcons are the main contenders with Chargers-Broncos and 49ers-Packers as dark horses.

Week 12 (November 29):

  • Tentative game: Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
  • Prospects: 3-2 v. 3-2, the Steelers are defending champs, and it’s a rivalry game – and the pickings are very slim otherwise. Very good chance of keeping its spot.
  • Protected games: Bears-Vikings (FOX).
  • Other possible games: It’s Thanksgiving Weekend, so there are some slim pickings for games – Bears-Vikings is the only other Saturday game pitting two teams with winning records, which, combined with the fact that Steelers-Ravens would revert to them, makes it an easy decision for CBS to leave this week unprotected despite how crap next week is for them. Jaguars-49ers, Colts-Texans, and Redskins-Eagles are the only games that so much as involve a 2-3 team playing a team with less than 3 losses.

Week 13 (December 6):

  • Tentative game: New England @ Miami
  • Prospects: A little mediocre at 3-2 v. 2-3, but anything can happen.
  • Protected games: Cowboys-Giants (FOX) and Titans-Colts (CBS). Last week I noted that for CBS to protect any game other than a battle of then-2-2 teams in Jags-Texans was to take a leap of faith that some team below .500 is going to improve. Apparently CBS REALLY thinks the Titans’ 0-5 start is a fluke. But I also said that the only reason CBS might protect ANY game is because of the weakness of the tentative game, then 3-1 v. 1-3.
  • Other possible games: Eagles-Falcons is the only Saturday game this week pitting two teams with one or no losses. Vikings-Cardinals is a dark horse.

Week 14 (December 13):

  • Tentative game: Philadelphia @ NY Giants
  • Prospects: It’s an NFC East game (always = ratings), and it’s 5-0 v. 3-1, currently the top two spots in said division. Pretty good shot to keep its spot, which means Fox could have left this week unprotected. There’s a better candidate later, though.
  • Protected games: Chargers-Cowboys (CBS) and Packers-Bears (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Those were the games I expected to be the frontrunners to potentially steal the spot, not to be protected, last week; Bengals-Vikings, Broncos-Colts, and Saints-Falcons were and are better games. CBS is especially surprising because not only are Bengals-Vikings and Broncos-Colts better games, they have no shortage of starpower in Brett Favre and Peyton Manning respectively. This may have less to do with records than the fact that the only other AFC game in Cowboy Stadium, while on CBS, involves the crappy Raiders.

Week 15 (December 20):

  • Tentative game: Minnesota @ Carolina
  • Prospects: Incredibly lopsided, with the Vikings unbeaten and the Panthers 1-3, and CBS’ decision not to protect Bengals-Vikings last week really hurts its chances, since this is no longer NBC’s best shot to see Brett Favre. (Though since that comes in a week with a very attractive tentative game, it’s still relevant that NBC’s other two shots are the Cardinals game Week 13 and the Giants game Week 17, the latter of which will be affected by the game’s playoff implications.)
  • Protected games: Packers-Steelers (Fox) and Bengals-Chargers (CBS).
  • Other possible games: I completely misread Packers-Steelers as a CBS game last week, but Falcons-Jets, Bears-Ravens, or 49ers-Eagles are still better games involving two teams each above .500; none have the name value of the Steelers, though, and while the other Fox Steelers game is more attractive against the Vikings, it’s an early game as soon as Week 7 that’s unlikely to be shown in the late slot. In this sense, protecting the only half-decent game they had was a shoo-in for CBS.

Week 16 (December 27)

  • Tentative game: Dallas @ Washington
  • Prospects: Could go either way, at 3-2 v. 2-3, but it is the NFL’s biggest rivalry so its chances of keeping its spot are probably better than even. Given how crappy Fox’s games are and how marquee this game is regardless of records, it’s no wonder Fox left this week unprotected despite the bounty of great games last week and the (arguably) even more marquee game Week 14.
  • Likely protections: Ravens-Steelers (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Jets-Colts or Broncos-Eagles.

Week 17 (January 3):

  • Playoff positioning watch begins Week 9.

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 4

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NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind):

  • Begins Sunday of Week 11
  • In effect during Weeks 11-17
  • Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
  • The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
  • The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
  • The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
  • The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
  • Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
  • NFL schedules all games.
  • Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
  • Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and could not protect any games Week 17 in 2007. Unless I find out otherwise, I’m assuming that’s still the case this year, especially with no tentative game listed Week 17, and that protections are being scheduled now, after Week 4.
  • Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. At this writing, no team is completely tapped out at any measure, although the Colts have five primetime appearances and can’t be flexed out of any of them, which is a problem since three other teams also have five primetime appearances and can be flexed out of them. NBC appearances for all teams: TEN 2, PIT 3 (1 flexible), CHI 3 (1 flexible), GB 1, NYG 4 (1 flexible), DAL 3 (1 flexible), IND 3, ARI 2, SD 1, ATL 1, PHI 4 (2 flexible), NE 3 (1 flexible), BAL 1 (flexible), MIA 1 (flexible), MIN 1 (flexible), CAR 1 (flexible), WAS 1 (flexible). All primetime appearances for all teams: TEN 4, PIT 5 (1 flexible), CHI 5 (1 flexible), GB 3, NYG 4 (1 flexible), DAL 5 (1 flexible), IND 5, ARI 3, SD 4, ATL 2, PHI 3 (2 flexible), NE 3 (1 flexible), BAL 3 (1 flexible), MIA 4 (1 flexible), MIN 3 (1 flexible), CAR 3 (1 flexible), WAS 3 (1 flexible), BUF 2, OAK 1, NYJ 2, DEN 3, NO 3, SF 2, CLE 2, HOU 1, JAX 1.
  • A rule that may have come to light late last year but that, given its restrictiveness and lateness in coming to light, I’m having trouble accepting, is that the balance of primetime games taken from FOX and CBS can’t go beyond 22-20 one way or the other. The current tally is FOX 15, CBS 20; with tentative games, the tally is FOX 19, CBS 22. With this rule in place, Weeks 11 and 14-16 cannot be flexed away from NFC road games without making up for it in Weeks 12, 13, and 17, and even with that at least one more game would have to be flexed to an NFC road game in said weeks.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 22):

  • Tentative game: Philadelphia @ Chicago
  • Prospects: 2-1 v. 3-1, with a decent chance of keeping its spot.
  • Likely protections: Jets-Patriots or Colts-Ravens, most likely the former (CBS) and Giants-Falcons or Redskins-Cowboys (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Chargers-Broncos and 49ers-Packers are the major contenders right now other than the protected games.

Week 12 (November 29):

  • Tentative game: Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
  • Prospects: 2-2 v. 3-1, but the Steelers are defending champs and it’s a rivalry game. If the Steelers can rebound from their slow start they have a good chance of keeping their spot.
  • Likely protections: If anything, Jaguars-49ers or Colts-Texans (CBS) and Bears-Vikings (FOX).
  • Other possible games: It’s Thanksgiving Weekend, so there is some slim pickings for games – the major reason this might be CBS’ unprotected week is that Bears-Vikings is the only Saturday game without a team with two or more losses. Jaguars-49ers, Colts-Texans, and Redskins-Eagles are the other games involving a 2-2 team playing a team with less than 2 losses, but CBS’ power rankings expects the Steelers to be better than the Niners right now (and Fox has them ahead of the Broncos!).

Week 13 (December 6):

  • Tentative game: New England @ Miami
  • Prospects: A little lopsided at 3-1 v. 1-3, but anything can happen.
  • Likely protections: Eagles-Falcons, Cowboys-Giants, or Vikings-Cardinals (FOX) and Jaguars-Texans if anything (CBS).
  • Other possible games: The only reason CBS might protect a game this week is because of the weakness of the tentative game, but for them to protect any game other than the battle of 2-2 teams is to take a leap of faith that some team below .500 is going to improve. The major candidates are the Fox unprotected games above, and only if teams improve – Eagles-Falcons is the only Saturday game this week pitting two teams with one or no losses.

Week 14 (December 13):

  • Tentative game: Philadelphia @ NY Giants
  • Prospects: It’s an NFC East game (always = ratings) , the Giants are 4-0, and the Eagles are considered by most to be closer to 3-1 than 2-2. Pretty good shot to keep its spot, which means Fox could leave this week unprotected. But Fox has a single good game, and the next week has a ton of them and another tentative game that would go to them with a flex, so I say they go ahead and protect this week.
  • Likely protections: Bengals-Vikings or Broncos-Colts (CBS) and Saints-Falcons (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Chargers-Cowboys or Packers-Bears.

Week 15 (December 20):

  • Tentative game: Minnesota @ Carolina
  • Prospects: Incredibly lopsided, with the Vikings unbeaten and the Panthers winless, but it’s the only game slotted for NBC and SNF’s best shot to get Brett Favre other than this game is the Cardinals game Week 13 and the Giants game Week 17, the latter of which will be affected by the game’s playoff implications.
  • Likely protections: Falcons-Jets, Bears-Ravens, or 49ers-Eagles (Fox) and if anything, Packers-Steelers or Bengals-Chargers (CBS).
  • Other possible games: See above. The bounty of great games on Fox will still include a protection for reasons described below, while this is CBS’ third nominee for an unprotected week; they might still protect a game (probably Packers-Steelers) because they wouldn’t get anything back, or they could bet that even if NBC flexes away from Vikings-Panthers it’s probably to another Fox game.

Week 16 (December 27):

  • Tentative game: Dallas @ Washington
  • Prospects: Could go either way, with both teams at 2-2, but it is the NFL’s biggest rivalry so its chances of keeping its spot are probably better than even. Given how crappy Fox’s games are and how marquee this game is regardless of records, I’d say this is the likeliest spot for their unprotected game.
  • Likely protections: Jets-Colts, Ravens-Steelers, or Broncos-Eagles (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Jaguars-Patriots.

Week 17 (January 3):

  • Playoff positioning watch begins Week 9.

The October of Bye Weeks

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Florida had a bye this week.

The Bears have a bye this coming week, after which they play the Falcons, who had a bye this past week.

Oregon doesn’t have a bye this week but does have one next week.

And the lineal title updates are probably among the worst, most boring posts I make all week if not all year. I’d roll them up with the rankings if that worked for the NFL title, and I’d rather not contaminate the SNF watch with that sort of wankery. (That the Bears blew out a team as boring and mediocre as the Lions doesn’t help.) I’m considering moving notices of lineal title updates almost entirely to Twitter.

Umm… if you believe the hype, Florida-LSU is the best hope for a Princeton-Yale title change until the SEC Championship Game?

Some idle football thoughts

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What does losing Tim Tebow really mean for the Gators considering what they did to Kentucky regardless? What does Oregon’s win over Cal mean for how good Boise State really is and how good the Ducks could have been if LeGarrette Blount hadn’t become me a few years ago? What does it mean that the Bears could very easily be 3-1 after the game with the Lions? What does it mean that a Lions team that just picked up its first win in over a year could hold the NFL Lineal Title a week later?

Well, actually, very little. But lineal title wankery isn’t the only thing I do involving the NFL. Tune in after the close of games for one of the earliest traffic drivers to my blog back in 2007, the Sunday Night Football Flexible Scheduling Watch, my attempt to determine which games are moving to primetime in the last eight weeks of the season.

Henceforth, my weekly schedule, sports-wise, is likely to be something along the lines of: college football rankings Monday or Tuesday, flex scheduling watch Monday through Wednesday, and college football schedule Tuesday through Thursday. As for this week, expect the college football rankings and schedule sometime over the next two days.

What the Colts winning on Monday night despite a 3-to-1 time of possession disadvantage tells us:

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Something I’ve figured for a while, and never 100% gotten about NFL conventional wisdom: Time of possession doesn’t mean as much as you think it does.

Having a low time of possession could mean that you’re not moving the ball and getting first downs as much as the other team… or it could mean you’re moving it faster and scoring in less time, while the other team has to plod slowly down the field. The Colts won because they could go bang-bang-bang-end zone while the Dolphins played the way most average teams play, working methodically and slowly but surely moving towards the end zone.

At some point, low time of possession becomes a sign of an efficient offense, not a bad one. And you could argue that other stats, like first downs, have a similar problem. The Colts won because they didn’t hold the ball for very long, not in spite of it.

This Week In Lineal Titles

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What’s more fun than having Final Four-style brackets for everything? Having boxing-style heavyweight champions for everything! Hence, my college football and NFL lineal titles, and this was a surprisingly eventful week for them.

Florida was the only champion to hold on to its title this week, although it came away with a narrow escape against Tennessee that suggests they may not be as dominant as everyone thinks. This week they go on the road to play a Kentucky team that, while not Top 25, seems to generally be considered better at this point.

I ended last season thinking the 2006 Boise State title was a “mid-major” title, to counteract Princeton-Yale’s BCS-team ownership, but a look at its actual history shows a lot of Pac-10 teams holding it. Oregon’s upset of Utah puts the title in the hands of a team that lost perhaps its best player to an outburst following an embarrassing loss to the title’s namesake. Now Cal comes to Autzen Stadium for a game that, with the USC loss, could have Rose Bowl implications.

How about Da Bears pulling off a last-second win over the Steelers? I doubt many people thought the defending Super Bowl champions would lose this early in the season, especially with the Bears losing Brian Urlacher. Now maybe the Vikings have a rougher road to the NFC North than a lot of people thought. Now they go to Seattle to take on a Seahawks squad that’s ailing and reeling. Yes, that’s my hometown team, folks. Hey, remember when the Seahawks were actually in the Super Bowl?

These changes have all been duly noted, and I’m thinking the first edition of my college football rankings will come out tomorrow.