SNF Flex Scheduling Watch

Week 14 (December 12):

• Tentative game: Philadelphia @ Dallas
• Prospects: 7-4 v. 3-8. The Cowboys’ hard charge stalling against the Saints probably doomed this game to be flexed out.
• Protected games: Patriots-Bears (CBS).
• Other possible games mentioned on last week’s Watch and their records: Bucs (7-4)-Redskins (5-6), Jags (6-5)-Raiders (5-6), and Chiefs (7-4)-Chargers (6-5).
• Impact of Monday Night Football: None.
• Analysis: I said last week that Chiefs-Chargers was the sexiest game and that a Chargers win would lock up another Sunday night date; not only did that happen, if lopsidedness wasn’t a factor everything would have broken down perfectly for Chiefs-Chargers, with the Chiefs also winning and the Eagles, Cowboys, Bucs, Redskins, Jags, and Raiders all losing, with the end result that Chiefs-Chargers now sports the best pair of records among unprotected games and in fact is the only such game involving two teams above .500. The Chiefs aren’t a name team, but part of the point of flex scheduling is to give more exposure to teams you might not have picked before the season. (Although… have I been ignoring Dolphins-Jets? It would max the Jets out but Bills-Jets will probably be unimportant… the bigger problem is how lopsided it is…)
• Final prediction: Kansas City Chiefs @ San Diego Chargers (with the caveat in parenthesis above).

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind):

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:20 p.m. ET.
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:20 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling, but are now protected after Week 5.
• Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. At this writing, no team is completely tapped out at any measure, although the Jets have five primetime appearances and can’t be flexed out of any of them, which is a problem since five other teams also have five primetime appearances and can be flexed out of them. (So naturally this turned into the Year of Parity!) A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.
• A rule that may have come to light late 2008 but that, given its restrictiveness and lateness in coming to light, I’m having trouble accepting, is that the balance of primetime games taken from FOX and CBS can’t go beyond 22-20 one way or the other. The current tally is FOX 18, CBS 17; with tentative games, the tally is FOX 21, CBS 20. With this rule in place, Weeks 12, 13, and 16 cannot be flexed away from AFC road games without making up for it in Weeks 11, 14, 15, and 17.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 21):

• Selected game: NY Giants @ Philadelphia.

Week 12 (November 28):

• Selected game: San Diego @ Indianapolis.

Week 13 (December 5):

• Selected game: Pittsburgh @ Baltimore.

Week 14 (December 12):

• Tentative game: Philadelphia @ Dallas
• Prospects: 7-3 v. 3-7; time will tell if the Cowboys are starting a Chargers-esque hard charge. An NFC East game always = ratings, and this is NBC’s only shot at a Cowboys game during the flex scheduling period, but they need to go on a historic tear with Garrett at the helm to have a shot at the playoffs. If the Cowboys beat the Saints, they’ll have proven their bona fides, and the NFL may want to hedge their bets and keep the game; 4-7 is a little questionable, but the NFL has kept tentative games with losing teams before, and the Cowboys would be the ultimate losing team in primetime. It would still be a 6-game gap at best but it could very well be four by game time. The presence of Michael Vick should help too. Everything depends on the Thanksgiving day game; a Cowboys win and this will probably be kept (especially with an Eagles loss); a loss and it’ll certainly be flexed. But look at the alternatives…
• Protected games: Patriots-Bears (CBS).
• Other possible games: Bucs-Redskins is the best game at 7-3 v. 5-5; Jags-Raiders and Chiefs-Chargers are worse at 6-4 v. 5-5. A big reason for the NFL to make the flex would be to move from a Fox to a CBS game, possibly allowing the reverse to happen in other weeks.
• Analysis: Chiefs-Chargers is the sexiest game; the Chargers having five primetime appearances isn’t a factor, as the NFL is probably chomping at the bit to flex out of Chargers-Bengals later and Chargers-Broncos seems an unlikely Week 17 flex. Despite the better pair of records, Bucs-Redskins has to overcome skepticism about the Bucs, the appeal of the Fox-to-CBS flex, and the fact it’s a little lopsided. Despite big-time playoff implications, Jags-Raiders has to overcome people not being used to the Raiders being good and the Jags not being a name team. If San Diego wins this Sunday night it would probably lock up another Sunday night date if the Cowboys lose (especially if the Chiefs lose and create a tie in the division); if they lose, it puts the brakes on their hard charge, but might not eliminate Chiefs-Chargers if other 5-5 teams lose.

Week 15 (December 19):

• Tentative game: Green Bay @ New England
• Prospects: 8-2 v. 7-3, a potential Super Bowl preview. Expect it to keep its spot.
• Protected games: Jets-Patriots (CBS) and Eagles-Giants (FOX).
• Other possible games: Saints-Ravens at 7-3 v. 7-3 is the only serious flex candidate but even it has to be considered a long shot. Jags-Colts at 6-4 v. 6-4 is also strong, and Falcons-Seahawks is a dark horse.

Week 16 (December 26)

• Tentative game: San Diego @ Cincinnati
• Prospects: 5-5 v. 2-8; it looks like the T.Ocho experiment isn’t working out, meaning the Chargers’ late-season surge is only serving to make this game lopsided, especially since the Bengals could be eliminated from the playoffs this weekend. (ESPN’s “Mike and Mike in the Morning” even pointed out on Tuesday how flex-worthy this game is! But as we’ll see, if they looked at the alternatives, they might start scratching their heads…)
• Protected games: Jets-Bears (CBS) and Giants-Packers (FOX).
• Other possible games: The only alternatives involve teams at .500. With the NFC Worst’s weakness, Seahawks-Bucs at 7-3 v. 5-5 has a legitimate shot at having the most playoff implications. Redskins-Jaguars is improving and has the same pair of records as Chiefs-Titans and Colts-Raiders. Colts-Raiders seems most likely, but it would max the Colts out, and Titans-Colts Week 17 could be important. We’ll wait and see how things shake out, I guess.

Week 17 (January 3 Playoff Positioning Watch):

AFC Playoff Picture

DIVISION LEADERS	WILD CARD	WAITING IN THE WINGS (5-5)
SOUTH 46-4	58-2
6-4
WEST 36-4	67-3
5-5
NORTH 27-3	6-4
7-3
EAST 18-2
8-2

• AFC East (Bills-Jets, Dolphins-Patriots): Jets and Patriots are tied for the division lead, with the Dolphins three back. The Bills are hanging on tiebreakers.
• AFC North (Steelers-Browns, Bengals-Ravens): It’s basically a two-horse race between the Ravens and Steelers, with the Browns four back and the Bengals five back.
• AFC South (Titans-Colts, Jags-Texans): Jags and Colts tied for the lead, Titans a game back, Texans two back.
• AFC West (Raiders-Chiefs, Chargers-Broncos): Chiefs lead, Chargers and Raiders a game back, Broncos three back but very much alive.
• AFC Wild Card: The East and North losers would get the nod if the season ended today, with the Colts on the outside looking in. The Dolphins, Titans, Raiders, and Chargers are waiting in the wings. Today, Titans-Colts and Raiders-Chiefs are appealing games with the losers likely not to make the playoffs, with Dolphins-Patriots moving up.

NFC Playoff Picture

DIVISION LEADERS	WILD CARD	WAITING IN THE WINGS (5-5)
WEST 45-5	57-3
4-6
NORTH 37-3	67-3
7-3
EAST 27-3	7-3
6-4	6-4
SOUTH 18-2
2 tied at 7-3

• NFC East (Giants-Redskins, Cowboys-Eagles): Eagles lead, Giants a game back, Redskins two back, Cowboys four back.
• NFC North (Bears-Packers, Vikings-Lions): Bears and Packers lead with the Vikings four games back and the Lions a game behind that. Despite the “it’s over for the Vikings” meme, they’re as alive as the Cowboys are.
• NFC South (Panthers-Falcons, Bucs-Saints): Falcons lead, Saints and Bucs a game back, Panthers officially eliminated from the division (but not the wild card).
• NFC West (Rams-Seahawks, Cardinals-49ers): Seahawks lead, Rams a game back, Cardinals and Niners two back.
• NFC Wild Card: The Saints, Bucs, and North loser are all at 7-3; the Giants are on the outside looking in; the Redskins are two games behind them. The NFC Playoff Picture, outside the West, clarified fast this week with only three teams at .500 at above likely to miss the playoffs, so expect little protest at the NFC Worst winner getting in (home field is a different story). Keep an eye on Rams-Seahawks, Bucs-Saints, Bears-Packers, and Giants-Redskins. With no one leading a division by more than a game in either conference, and only four divisions not tied, NBC could have no shortage of good choices Week 17.

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind):

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:20 p.m. ET.
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:20 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling, but are now protected after Week 5.
• Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. At this writing, no team is completely tapped out at any measure, although the Jets have five primetime appearances and can’t be flexed out of any of them, which is a problem since five other teams also have five primetime appearances and can be flexed out of them. (So naturally this turned into the Year of Parity!) A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.
• A rule that may have come to light late 2008 but that, given its restrictiveness and lateness in coming to light, I’m having trouble accepting, is that the balance of primetime games taken from FOX and CBS can’t go beyond 22-20 one way or the other. The current tally is FOX 18, CBS 17; with tentative games, the tally is FOX 21, CBS 20. With this rule in place, Weeks 12, 13, and 16 cannot be flexed away from AFC road games without making up for it in Weeks 11, 14, 15, and 17.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 21):

• Selected game: NY Giants @ Philadelphia.

Week 12 (November 28):

• Selected game: San Diego @ Indianapolis. (With Eagles-Bears the Fox late game instead of Packers-Falcons for some reason…)

Week 13 (December 5):

• Tentative game: Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
• Prospects: 6-3 v. 6-3, probably deciding the AFC North. Extremely good chance of keeping its spot.
• Protected games: Cowboys-Colts (FOX).
• Other possible games: Falcons-Bucs at the moment is the only serious flex candidate at 7-2 v. 6-3, and the perfect storm it could need to pass Steelers-Ravens may be brewing; based on records, it’s actually now a better game, but it still needs help (see below). Redskins-Giants and Rams-Cardinals are out. Jags-Titans and Raiders-Chargers don’t involve any teams above 5-4, so they can’t pass Falcons-Bucs.
• Analysis: Falcons-Bucs needs to overcome the NFL’s tentative-game bias, the fact that people don’t trust the Bucs, and how obvious a big playoff-determining game Steelers-Ravens is. All that means they probably need to both win and the Steelers and Ravens need to both lose, and the Steelers and Ravens are both playing weak teams. But if all that happens, it becomes 8-2 v. 7-3, as opposed to a game at 6-4 v. 6-4, and the Steelers and Ravens might not be fighting for a first-round bye anymore, and people may start wondering if they’re starting to collapse, and the NFL may start wondering if they’re showing a stinker. Even then, though, it would be the equivalent of Cowboys-Vikings on Fox earlier in the season, except with the Ravens being a smaller-name team. I don’t want to make an early prediction after the perfect storm was played to perfection this week, but the cincher may be that it would be moving from a CBS game to a Fox game, same as last week.
• Final prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens (no change).

Week 14 (December 12):

• Tentative game: Philadelphia @ Dallas
• Prospects: 6-3 v. 2-7; time will tell if the Cowboys are starting a Chargers-esque hard charge. An NFC East game always = ratings, and this is NBC’s only shot at a Cowboys game during the flex scheduling period, but they need to go on a historic tear with Garrett at the helm to have a shot; even then its only shot at keeping its spot may be if it’s the game Romo comes back in, and that probably won’t be known 12 days in advance. No matter how hard a charge they make, they’d be 5-7 by the time the NFL would have to make the flex decision, still a little lopsided unless the Eagles collapse. On the other hand, look at the alternatives…
• Protected games: Patriots-Bears (CBS).
• Other possible games: Jags-Raiders is the only game involving nothing but teams above .500… and it’s 5-4 v. 5-4. Bucs-Redskins and Rams-Saints are both 6-3 v. 4-5; Chiefs-Chargers is worse at 5-4 v. 4-5, but its prospects may be the strongest if the Chargers continue their annual hard charge (they could even lead the division by the time comes to make the flex). A lot depends upon what those .500 teams do, but this could have a pretty good chance of moving from a Fox to a CBS game, possibly allowing the reverse to happen in other weeks.

Week 15 (December 19):

• Tentative game: Green Bay @ New England
• Prospects: 7-2 v. 6-3, a potential Super Bowl preview. Extremely good chance to keep its spot.
• Protected games: Jets-Patriots (CBS) and Eagles-Giants (FOX).
• Other possible games: Saints-Ravens at 6-3 v. 6-3 is the only serious flex candidate but even it has to be considered a long shot. Jags-Colts and Falcons-Seahawks are also options, while Texans-Titans and Chiefs-Rams fading.

Week 16 (December 26)

• Tentative game: San Diego @ Cincinnati
• Prospects: 2-7 v. 4-5; it looks like the T.Ocho experiment isn’t working out, meaning the Chargers’ late-season surge will only serve to make this game lopsided, especially since, even if the Bengals go on a run of their own, they can’t break past the Ravens and Steelers.
• Protected games: Jets-Bears (CBS) and Giants-Packers (FOX).
• Other possible games: Chiefs-Titans, Colts-Raiders, and Seahawks-Bucs all involve two teams above .500. Redskins-Jaguars is a big dark horse and came within a hail mary of being almost completely out this week. Colts-Raiders seems most likely, but it would max the Colts out, and Titans-Colts Week 17 could be important. We’ll wait and see how things shake out, I guess.

Week 17 (January 3 Playoff Positioning Watch):

AFC Playoff Picture

DIVISION LEADERS	WILD CARD	WAITING IN THE WINGS (4-5)
WEST 45-4	57-2
5-4
SOUTH 36-3	66-3
2 tied at 5-4
NORTH 26-3	5-4
6-3	5-4
EAST 17-2	5-4
7-2	5-4

• I’m tweaking the format of the Playoff Positioning Watch this year to take advantage of the NFL scheduling all divisional matchups Week 17. Next to each division is that division’s Week 17 matchups in parenthesis.
• AFC East (Bills-Jets, Dolphins-Patriots): Jets and Patriots are tied for the division lead, with the Dolphins two back. The Bills are still alive… barely.
• AFC North (Steelers-Browns, Bengals-Ravens): It’s basically a two-horse race between the Ravens and Steelers, with the Browns three back and the Bengals four back.
• AFC South (Titans-Colts, Jags-Texans): Colts lead, Titans and Jags a game back, Texans two back.
• AFC West (Raiders-Chiefs, Chargers-Broncos): Raiders and Chiefs tied for the division lead, Chargers a game back, Broncos another game behind that.
• AFC Wild Card: The East and North losers would get the nod if the season ended today, with the West loser, Dolphins, Titans, and Jags a game back. The Chargers and Texans are waiting in the wings. Today, Titans-Colts and Raiders-Chiefs are appealing games with the losers likely not to make the playoffs, with Dolphins-Patriots and Jags-Texans moving up.

NFC Playoff Picture

DIVISION LEADERS	WILD CARD	WAITING IN THE WINGS (4-5)
WEST 45-4	56-3
4-5
NORTH 36-3	66-3
6-3
EAST 26-3	6-3
6-3	6-3
SOUTH 17-2
2 tied at 6-3

• NFC East (Giants-Redskins, Cowboys-Eagles): Giants and Eagles tied for the lead, Redskins two back, Cowboys four back.
• NFC North (Bears-Packers, Vikings-Lions): Bears and Packers lead with the Vikings three games back and the Lions a game behind that.
• NFC South (Panthers-Falcons, Bucs-Saints): Falcons lead, Saints and Bucs a game back, ignore the Panthers.
• NFC West (Rams-Seahawks, Cardinals-49ers): Seahawks lead, Rams a game back, Cardinals and Niners two back.
• NFC Wild Card: The Saints, Bucs, and losers of the East and North are all at 6-3; the Rams and Redskins are two games behind them. Wide open, with only the Lions, Cowboys, and Panthers more than three games out of the playoffs in the NFC. Keep an eye on Rams-Seahawks, Bucs-Saints, Bears-Packers, and Giants-Redskins. With no one leading a division by more than a game in either conference, and only three divisions not tied, NBC could have no shortage of good choices Week 17.

Week 12 (November 28):

• Tentative game: San Diego @ Indianapolis
• Prospects: 6-3 v. 4-5; the Chargers’ win over the Texans potentially put the NFL in a difficult situation. They had a bye this week, so they couldn’t make it back to .500, but they’re close enough, and have enough upward momentum that history suggests will continue, that the NFL will have to weigh its tentative game bias against the present iffy state of the game and the strength of the alternatives. 6-3 v. 4-5 still isn’t so lopsided to rule the game out.
• Protected games: Eagles-Bears (FOX) and Jags-Giants (CBS).
• Other possible games mentioned on last week’s Watch and their records: Titans (5-4)-Texans (4-5), Chiefs (5-4)-Seahawks (5-4), Packers (6-3)-Falcons (7-2), and Bucs (6-3)-Ravens (6-3).
• Impact of Monday Night Football: None.
• Analysis: I said last week that the best situation for Colts-Chargers left Packers-Falcons at 6-3 v. 6-3 and Colts-Chargers at 6-3 v. 4-5, but that the same situation could very easily coincide with Bucs-Ravens being 6-3 v. 7-2, but even then Packers-Falcons could get the nod based on name teams and people’s general feeling that the Bucs are beneficiaries of a weak schedule. I felt the Ravens needed to win on Thursday night to have any shot at the flex at all. Not only did that not happen, it’s now very difficult for the NFL to pass up a battle between two teams that might be the best two in the NFC. Worth noting that both of these would be moves from a CBS game to a Fox game, with a Fox-to-CBS move unlikely in the remaining weeks to force Week 17 to go to a CBS game, and Green Bay would be maxed out on NBC appearances with Packers-Patriots unlikely to be flexed out, and a potential huge Week 17 game with the Bears. Would the NFL keep a 6-3 v. 4-5 game with a 6-3 v. 7-2 game available of this caliber? One need only look to this same week, and this same Colts-Chargers game, two years ago. But 7-2 wasn’t the best record in the league then…
• Final prediction: Indianapolis Colts @ San Diego Chargers (no change), but a flex would not surprise me one iota. (Lack of announcement is probably to see if Eagles-Bears at 5-3 v. 6-3 is worthy of Fox late game vis-a-vis Bucs-Ravens, which may be a good sign for flexing in Packers-Falcons.)

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind):

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:20 p.m. ET.
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:20 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling, but are now protected after Week 5.
• Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. At this writing, no team is completely tapped out at any measure, although the Jets have five primetime appearances and can’t be flexed out of any of them, which is a problem since five other teams also have five primetime appearances and can be flexed out of them. (So naturally this turned into the Year of Parity!) A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.
• A rule that may have come to light late 2008 but that, given its restrictiveness and lateness in coming to light, I’m having trouble accepting, is that the balance of primetime games taken from FOX and CBS can’t go beyond 22-20 one way or the other. The current tally is FOX 18, CBS 17; with tentative games, the tally is FOX 21, CBS 20. With this rule in place, Weeks 12, 13, and 16 cannot be flexed away from AFC road games without making up for it in Weeks 11, 14, 15, and 17.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 21):

• Selected game: NY Giants @ Philadelphia.

Week 12 (November 28):

• Tentative game: San Diego @ Indianapolis
• Prospects: 5-3 v. 4-5; the Chargers’ win over the Texans potentially puts the NFL in a difficult situation, and the Eagles may have granted the Chargers’ prayers. They have a bye this week, so they can’t make it back to .500, but they’re close enough, and have enough upward momentum that history suggests will continue, that the NFL will have to weigh its tentative game bias against the present iffy state of the game and the strength of the alternatives. 6-3 v. 4-5 still isn’t so lopsided to rule the game out.
• Protected games: Eagles-Bears (FOX) and Jags-Giants (CBS).
• Other possible games: Thanksgiving Weekend usually means a paucity of good games, but sadly for Colts-Chargers, not this year, especially with the Cowboys’ struggles. The good news for Colts-Chargers is that Titans-Texans and Chiefs-Seahawks both went to 5-3 v. 4-4; the bad news is that still has a chance to beat the tentative, and Packers-Falcons at 6-3 v. 6-2 and Bucs-Ravens at 5-3 v. 6-2 remain very strong.
• Analysis: Packers-Falcons is the key game; all of the alternatives involve iffy markets, so the Packers’ name-team status bolsters its status as a battle of six-win teams. The Packers have a bye week like the Chargers, so the games that will play the biggest role for determining the flex are Bengals-Colts and the Thursday night Ravens-Falcons game; also keep an eye on Panthers-Bucs. The best situation for Colts-Chargers leaves Packers-Falcons at 6-3 v. 6-3 and Colts-Chargers at 6-3 v. 4-5, so if the NFL sticks with Colts-Chargers it will be because of the tentative-game bias and feeling that the Chargers are on their annual hard charge. On the other hand, the same situation could very easily coincide with Bucs-Ravens being 6-3 v. 7-2, but even then Packers-Falcons could get the nod based on name teams and people’s general feeling that the Bucs are beneficiaries of a weak schedule; needless to say, the Ravens need to win on Thursday night to have any shot for the flex at all. Worth noting that both of these would be moves from a CBS game to a Fox game, with a Fox-to-CBS move unlikely in the remaining weeks to force Week 17 to go to a CBS game, and Green Bay would be maxed out on NBC appearances with Packers-Patriots unlikely to be flexed out, and a potential huge Week 17 game with the Bears. Still, can the NFL really keep a 5-4 v. 4-5 game with a 6-3 v. 7-2 game available (from either of these games)?

Week 13 (December 5):

• Tentative game: Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
• Prospects: 6-2 v. 6-2, probably deciding the AFC North. Extremely good chance of keeping its spot.
• Protected games: Cowboys-Colts (FOX).
• Other possible games: Falcons-Bucs at the moment is the only serious flex candidate at 6-2 v. 5-3, but even it could need a perfect storm, like the Steelers and Ravens going on losing streaks the next two weeks. Redskins-Giants, Jags-Titans, and Rams-Cardinals all involve 4-4 teams. Raiders-Chargers is an emerging, but massive, long shot.

Week 14 (December 12):

• Tentative game: Philadelphia @ Dallas
• Prospects: 5-3 v. 1-7; an NFC East game always = ratings, but the Cowboys’ struggles are becoming hard to watch. This is NBC’s only shot at a Cowboys game during the flex scheduling period, but they need to go on a historic tear with Garrett at the helm to have a shot; even then its only shot at keeping its spot may be if it’s the game Romo comes back in, and that probably won’t be known 12 days in advance. On the other hand, look at the alternatives…
• Protected games: Patriots-Bears (CBS).
• Other possible games: Bucs-Redskins, Rams-Saints, and Jags-Raiders all involve teams at .500, but they’re the best games you have. A lot depends upon what those .500 teams do, but I’m not optimistic about the Jags. Is Chiefs-Chargers worth pinning your hopes on?

Week 15 (December 19):

• Tentative game: Green Bay @ New England
• Prospects: 6-2 v. 6-3, a potential Super Bowl preview. Extremely good chance to keep its spot.
• Protected games: Jets-Patriots (CBS) and Eagles-Giants (FOX).
• Other possible games: Saints-Ravens now has an identical pair of records; it’s the only serious flex candidate but even it has to be considered a long shot. Jags-Colts, Texans-Titans, Falcons-Seahawks, and Chiefs-Rams are dark horses.

Week 16 (December 26)

• Tentative game: San Diego @ Cincinnati
• Prospects: 2-6 v. 4-5; it looks like the T.Ocho experiment isn’t working out, meaning the Chargers’ late-season surge will only serve to make this game lopsided, especially since, even if the Bengals go on a run of their own, they can’t break past the Ravens and Steelers.
• Protected games: Jets-Bears (CBS) and Giants-Packers (FOX).
• Other possible games: Chiefs-Titans and Colts-Raiders both involve two teams above .500. Seahawks-Bucs and Redskins-Jaguars are dark horses. Colts-Raiders seems most likely, but it would max the Colts out, and Titans-Colts Week 17 could be important. We’ll wait and see how things shake out, I guess, but it could affect whether Colts-Chargers Week 12 gets flexed out.

Week 17 (January 3 Playoff Positioning Watch):

AFC Playoff Picture

DIVISION LEADERS	WILD CARD	WAITING IN THE WINGS
SOUTH 45-3	56-2	4-4
5-3		4-4
WEST 35-3	66-2	4-4
5-4		4-5
EAST 26-2	5-3
6-2	5-4
NORTH 16-2
6-2

• I’m tweaking the format of the Playoff Positioning Watch this year to take advantage of the NFL scheduling all divisional matchups Week 17. Next to each division is that division’s Week 17 matchups in parenthesis.
• AFC East (Bills-Jets, Dolphins-Patriots): Jets and Patriots are tied for the division lead, with the Dolphins two back. The Bills could be reduced to tiebreakers this week.
• AFC North (Steelers-Browns, Bengals-Ravens): It’s basically a two-horse race between the Ravens and Steelers, with the Browns three back and the Bengals four back.
• AFC South (Titans-Colts, Jags-Texans): Titans and Colts tied for the division lead with the Jags and Texans a game back.
• AFC West (Raiders-Chiefs, Chargers-Broncos): Chiefs lead, Raiders a half-game back, Chargers another game behind that, Broncos another game-and-a-half behind that.
• AFC Wild Card: The East and North losers would get the nod if the season ended today, with the South loser a game back and the Raiders a half-game behind that. The Dolphins, Jags, and Texans are waiting in the wings, with the Chargers a half-game behind them. Today, Titans-Colts and Raiders-Chiefs are appealing games with the losers likely not to make the playoffs, with Dolphins-Patriots and Jags-Texans long shots.

NFC Playoff Picture

DIVISION LEADERS	WILD CARD	WAITING IN THE WINGS (3-5)
WEST 44-4	56-3
4-4
NORTH 36-3	65-3
5-3
SOUTH 26-2	5-3
6-3	5-3
EAST 16-2	4-4
5-3	4-4

• NFC East (Giants-Redskins, Cowboys-Eagles): Giants lead, Eagles a game back, Redskins a game behind that, Cowboys not worth mentioning.
• NFC North (Bears-Packers, Vikings-Lions): Packers lead, Bears a half-game back, Vikings two games behind that, Lions a game behind that.
• NFC South (Panthers-Falcons, Bucs-Saints): Falcons lead, Saints a half-game back, Bucs a half-game behind that, ignore the Panthers.
• NFC West (Rams-Seahawks, Cardinals-49ers): Rams and Seahawks tied for the division lead, with the Cardinals a game back and the Niners a game behind that.
• NFC Wild Card: Saints and either the Bears, Eagles, or Bucs would get the nod if the season ended today, with the Redskins and, believe it or not, the West loser a game back, and the Vikings and Cardinals a game behind that. Wide open, with only the Lions, Cowboys, and Panthers more than three games out of the playoffs in the NFC. Keep an eye on Rams-Seahawks, Bucs-Saints, Bears-Packers, and Giants-Redskins. With no one leading a division by more than a game in either conference, NBC could have no shortage of good choices Week 17.

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind):

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:20 p.m. ET.
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:20 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling, but are now protected after Week 5.
• Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. At this writing, no team is completely tapped out at any measure, although the Jets have five primetime appearances and can’t be flexed out of any of them, which is a problem since five other teams also have five primetime appearances and can be flexed out of them. (So naturally this turned into the Year of Parity!) A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.
• A rule that may have come to light late 2008 but that, given its restrictiveness and lateness in coming to light, I’m having trouble accepting, is that the balance of primetime games taken from FOX and CBS can’t go beyond 22-20 one way or the other. The current tally is FOX 18, CBS 17; with tentative games, the tally is FOX 21, CBS 20. With this rule in place, Weeks 12, 13, and 16 cannot be flexed away from AFC road games without making up for it in Weeks 11, 14, 15, and 17.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 21):

• Tentative game: NY Giants @ Philadelphia
• Prospects: 5-2 v. 4-3, with the Giants leading the most attractive division in the league and the Eagles a game back. Extremely good chance to keep its spot, but the NFL may want to think twice if the Eagles fall to .500, tied at second with the Redskins.
• Protected games according to this: Packers-Vikings (FOX) and Colts-Patriots (CBS).
• Other possible games: Jets-Texans saw both teams lose to fall to 5-2 v. 4-3, which can’t overcome the tentative-game bias. Chiefs-Cardinals is out with the Cardinals falling below .500. A few long shots: Redskins-Titans at 5-3 v. 4-4, Saints-Seahawks at 5-3 v. 4-3, Falcons-Rams at 5-2 v. 4-4, and Raiders-Steelers at 5-2 v. 4-4.
• Analysis: It’ll be very difficult for any game to steal the spot. The Seahawks can help their own case by beating the Giants, but a Giants win might be better for flexing in general by making the game lopsided. Any flex depends on the Eagles losing, but that would shrink them down to .500, throwing the doors open. Jets-Texans CAN make the flex look attractive if both teams win; even a Texans win and a Jets loss could be tempting, but it might not be enough to overcome the tentative game bias and the name team factor. (Locking the Jets out the rest of the year shouldn’t be a problem; there are no other good available games the rest of the way, and it’s doubtful they’ll need to beat the lowly Bills Week 17.) Both Redskins and Titans have a bye, so they’re out since Giants-Eagles can only match them, not fall behind. If Seahawks and Saints win, will the NFL be tempted by 6-3 v. 5-3 vis-a-vis 5-3 v. 4-4? Rams have a bye, so either Falcons-Rams becomes lopsided (6-2 v. 4-4, and Giants-Eagles would still have division implications), inferior, or equivalent, and therefore out. Raiders-Steelers may be too lopsided already, and the Steelers don’t play until Monday; 5-3 v. 5-4 wouldn’t be lopsided, and slightly better than Giants-Eagles, but have the Raiders’ decade of mediocrity sullied their name-team status? (As with the Jets, locking the Steelers out of future NBC appearances, setting aside the VERY unlikely “let’s flex out of Steelers-Ravens” scenario, doesn’t lock them out of any good games or any potential playoff-deciding game with the Browns Week 17.) I reiterate that there’s a very slim chance of any flex at all, but a 4-4 Eagles squad has to make the NFL at least consider the flex.

Week 12 (November 28):

• Tentative game: San Diego @ Indianapolis
• Prospects: 5-2 v. 3-5; time will tell if Sunday’s win was the start of the annual Chargers charge, but they may be desperate for at least one Colts loss to keep the game from looking lopsided. They have a bye Week 10, so they can’t make it back to .500 and absolutely have to beat the Texans this week for this game to have a chance to keep its spot.
• Protected games: Eagles-Bears (FOX) and Jags-Giants (CBS).
• Other possible games: Thanksgiving Weekend usually means a paucity of good games, but sadly for Colts-Chargers, not this year, especially with the Cowboys’ struggles. Four games currently involve only teams with three or fewer losses: Titans-Texans at 5-3 v. 4-3, Packers-Falcons at 5-3 v. 5-2, Bucs-Ravens at 5-2 v. 5-2, and Chiefs-Seahawks at 5-2 v. 4-3. All involve iffy markets, so the name team Packers are in good shape, but Bucs-Ravens remains a battle of two-loss teams. As for how Colts-Chargers can keep its spot? It’ll be difficult: Bucs-Ravens can get to 5-4 v. 5-4 at worst and Colts-Chargers 5-4 v. 4-5 at its least lopsided, which might mean the tentative-game bias, name team factor, and feeling the Chargers are on their hard charge would work in their favor… if the other games cooperate.

Week 13 (December 5):

• Tentative game: Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
• Prospects: 5-2 v. 5-2, potentially deciding the AFC North. Extremely good chance of keeping its spot.
• Protected games: Cowboys-Colts (FOX). This week has only one good CBS game but a better tentative compared to the other CBS unprotected candidate last week.
• Other possible games: Falcons-Bucs involves two teams with the same records as Steelers-Ravens, and at the moment is the only serious flex candidate, but even it could need a perfect storm. Redskins-Giants, Jags-Titans, and Rams-Cardinals all involve 4-4 teams.

Week 14 (December 12):

• Tentative game: Philadelphia @ Dallas
• Prospects: 4-3 v. 1-6; an NFC East game always = ratings, but the Cowboys’ struggles are becoming hard to watch. This is NBC’s only shot at a Cowboys game during the flex scheduling period, but they could come in to this game 3-9 or something gruesome like that, maybe already mathematically out of the playoffs; its only shot at keeping its spot may be if it’s the game Romo comes back in, and that probably won’t be known 12 days in advance. On the other hand, look at the alternatives…
• Protected games: Patriots-Bears (CBS).
• Other possible games: Bucs-Redskins, Rams-Saints, and Jags-Raiders all involve teams at .500, but they’re the best games you have. A lot depends upon what those .500 teams do, but I’m not optimistic about the Jags.

Week 15 (December 19):

• Tentative game: Green Bay @ New England
• Prospects: 6-1 v. 5-3, a bit lopsided but both teams have sole possession of their respective division leads and are within a half-game of the best record in their respective conferences, so you have the Super Bowl Preview angle.
• Protected games: Jets-Patriots (CBS) and Eagles-Giants (FOX).
• Other possible games: Saints-Ravens involves two teams within one game of the best record in their respective conferences and a half-game of the division lead. Texans-Titans and Falcons-Seahawks are also options, with Jags-Colts and Chiefs-Rams as dark horses.

Week 16 (December 26)

• Tentative game: San Diego @ Cincinnati
• Prospects: 2-5 v. 3-5; it looks like the T.Ocho experiment isn’t working out, meaning the Chargers’ late-season surge will only serve to make this game lopsided, especially since, even if the Bengals go on a run of their own, they can’t break past the Ravens and Steelers.
• Protected games: Jets-Bears (CBS) and Giants-Packers (FOX).
• Other possible games: Chiefs-Titans and Seahawks-Bucs both involve two teams above .500. Colts-Raiders and Redskins-Jaguars are also options.

Week 17 (January 3):

• Playoff positioning watch begins Week 9.

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind):

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:20 p.m. ET.
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:20 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling, but are now protected after Week 5.
• Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. At this writing, no team is completely tapped out at any measure, although the Jets have five primetime appearances and can’t be flexed out of any of them, which is a problem since five other teams also have five primetime appearances and can be flexed out of them. (So naturally this turned into the Year of Parity!) A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.
• A rule that may have come to light late 2008 but that, given its restrictiveness and lateness in coming to light, I’m having trouble accepting, is that the balance of primetime games taken from FOX and CBS can’t go beyond 22-20 one way or the other. The current tally is FOX 18, CBS 17; with tentative games, the tally is FOX 21, CBS 20. With this rule in place, Weeks 12, 13, and 16 cannot be flexed away from AFC road games without making up for it in Weeks 11, 14, 15, and 17.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 21):

• Tentative game: NY Giants @ Philadelphia
• Prospects: 5-2 v. 4-3, with the Giants leading the most attractive division in the league and the Eagles a game back. Extremely good chance to keep its spot.
• Protected games according to this: Packers-Vikings (FOX) and Colts-Patriots (CBS).
• Other possible games: Jets-Texans, Chiefs-Cardinals, Redskins-Titans, and Saints-Seahawks, with Falcons-Rams and Raiders-Steelers as dark horses, all very dependent on how everything shakes out. Right now if any of them had a shot it would begin and end with 1-loss vs. 2-loss in Jets-Texans.

Week 12 (November 28):

• Tentative game: San Diego @ Indianapolis
• Prospects: 4-2 v. 2-5; the Chargers always start slow, but something about this year feels different (especially with how much better the Chiefs and Raiders are), and there are some ominous signs in the Colts’ losses…
• Protected games: Eagles-Bears (FOX) and Jags-Giants (CBS).
• Other possible games: Thanksgiving Weekend, paucity of good games, though less so than in years past. Your options are Titans-Texans, Packers-Falcons, Bucs-Ravens, Chiefs-Seahawks, and who knows, maybe even Vikings-Redskins. This game is very much at risk with three battles of 2-loss teams (although all involve iffy markets, so if the decision came this week it might default to Packers-Falcons).

Week 13 (December 5):

• Tentative game: Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
• Prospects: 5-1 v. 5-2, potentially deciding the AFC North. Extremely good chance of keeping its spot.
• Protected games: Cowboys-Colts (FOX). This week has only one good CBS game but a better tentative compared to the other CBS unprotected candidate last week.
• Other possible games: Redskins-Giants, Falcons-Bucs, and Jags-Titans, with Rams-Cardinals an emerging dark horse, and Saints-Bengals a big long shot.

Week 14 (December 12):

• Tentative game: Philadelphia @ Dallas
• Prospects: 4-3 v. 1-5; an NFC East game always = ratings, but at what point do the Cowboys’ struggles become too much to take, especially with Tony Romo on the shelf? This is NBC’s only shot at a Cowboys game during the flex scheduling period, but they could come in to this game 3-9 or something gruesome like that; its only shot at keeping its spot may be if it’s the game Romo comes back in, and that probably won’t be known 12 days in advance. On the other hand, look at the alternatives…
• Protected games: Patriots-Bears (CBS).
• Other possible games: Bucs-Redskins is the only available game that doesn’t involve teams below .500, and it doesn’t feel like a game you’d abandon Eagles-Cowboys for. Rams-Saints and Jags-Raiders are dark horses. Giants-Vikings is an important wild card, but Brett Favre’s career may be over by then. Bengals-Steelers is hanging by a thread.

Week 15 (December 19):

• Tentative game: Green Bay @ New England
• Prospects: 5-1 v. 4-3, a bit lopsided but both teams are at least tied for their respective division leads.
• Protected games: Jets-Patriots (CBS) and Eagles-Giants (FOX).
• Other possible games: Saints-Ravens is very attractive. Texans-Titans, Falcons-Seahawks, and Jags-Colts are also options, with Chiefs-Rams as a dark horse. I originally didn’t think Fox would protect Eagles-Giants thinking they’d always want to hang on to the NFL’s biggest rivalry, but unless the Cowboys make an unprecedented comeback with Jon Kitna at QB Redskins-Cowboys might not even be Fox’s own spotlight game.

Week 16 (December 26)

• Tentative game: San Diego @ Cincinnati
• Prospects: 2-4 v. 2-5, and the Bengals will have trouble catching up to the Ravens and Steelers, while the Charger mid-to-late season magic may have run out with the rest of the division improved.
• Protected games: Jets-Bears (CBS) and Giants-Packers (FOX).
• Other possible games: Chiefs-Titans and Seahawks-Bucs both involve two teams above .500. Colts-Raiders and Redskins-Jaguars are also options, with Vikings-Eagles as a Brett Favre wild card.

Week 17 (January 3):

• Playoff positioning watch begins Week 9.

Also known as “Why NBC’s only flex game might NOT be Week 16”.

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind):

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:20 p.m. ET.
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:20 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling, but are now protected after Week 5.
• Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. At this writing, no team is completely tapped out at any measure, although the Jets have five primetime appearances and can’t be flexed out of any of them, which is a problem since five other teams also have five primetime appearances and can be flexed out of them. (So naturally this turned into the Year of Parity!) A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.
• A rule that may have come to light late 2008 but that, given its restrictiveness and lateness in coming to light, I’m having trouble accepting, is that the balance of primetime games taken from FOX and CBS can’t go beyond 22-20 one way or the other. The current tally is FOX 18, CBS 17; with tentative games, the tally is FOX 21, CBS 20. With this rule in place, Weeks 12, 13, and 16 cannot be flexed away from AFC road games without making up for it in Weeks 11, 14, 15, and 17.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 21):

• Tentative game: NY Giants @ Philadelphia
• Prospects: Both teams at 4-2 and tied for the division lead in the most attractive division in the league. Extremely good chance to keep its spot.
• Likely protections: Packers-Vikings (FOX) and Colts-Patriots (CBS).
• Other possible games: Jets-Texans, Chiefs-Cardinals, Redskins-Titans, and Saints-Seahawks, with Falcons-Rams and Raiders-Steelers as dark horses, all very dependent on how everything shakes out. Right now if any of them had a shot it would begin and end with battle of 1-loss teams Jets-Texans. (I think the Raiders have shown enough flashes of brilliance to potentially make the playoffs, especially in a division where they’re only 1 1/2 games back and tied for second, so I’m including every team at 2-4 or above.)

Week 12 (November 28):

• Tentative game: San Diego @ Indianapolis
• Prospects: 4-2 v. 2-4, but the Chargers always start slow. But there are some ominous signs in the Colts’ losses…
• Likely protections: Reportedly, Eagles-Bears (FOX) and Titans-Texans, Jags-Giants, or nothing (CBS).
• Other possible games: Thanksgiving Weekend, paucity of good games. Besides the potentially protected games, Packers-Falcons, Bucs-Ravens, and who knows, maybe even Vikings-Redskins or Chiefs-Seahawks.

Week 13 (December 5):

• Tentative game: Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
• Prospects: 4-1 v. 4-2, potentially deciding the AFC North. Extremely good chance of keeping its spot.
• Likely protections: Falcons-Bucs or Cowboys-Colts, more likely the latter (FOX) and Jags-Titans if anything (CBS). This week has only one good CBS game but a better tentative compared to the other CBS unprotected candidate.
• Other possible games: Redskins-Giants or the potentially protected games, with Chiefs-Broncos and Rams-Cardinals as potential dark horses, and Saints-Bengals a big long shot.

Week 14 (December 12):

• Tentative game: Philadelphia @ Dallas
• Prospects: 4-2 v. 1-4; an NFC East game always = ratings, but at what point do the Cowboys’ struggles become too much to take? This is NBC’s only shot at a Cowboys game during the flex scheduling period, but they could come in to this game 3-9 or something gruesome like that. On the other hand, look at the alternatives…
• Likely protections: Patriots-Bears (CBS) and probably nothing (FOX).
• Other possible games: Giants-Vikings and Bucs-Redskins are the main Fox protection candidates if they did protect something. Bucs-Redskins and Rams-Saints are the only available games that don’t involve teams below .500; neither feels like a game you’d abandon Eagles-Cowboys for. Broncos-Cardinals, Jags-Raiders, and Chiefs-Chargers are dark horses. Bengals-Steelers is hanging by a thread.

Week 15 (December 19):

• Tentative game: Green Bay @ New England
• Prospects: 4-1 v. 3-3, so NBC better hope the Packers look more like the first of those “3”s, or this could get disturbingly lopsided.
• Likely protections: Jets-Patriots (CBS) and Saints-Ravens or Redskins-Cowboys, more likely the latter, but see below (FOX).
• Other possible games: Eagles-Giants could well take this, but that maxes them both out of NBC appearances, and Fox would not be happy about losing both games of the divisional matchup, which makes me wonder if Fox may have in fact protected that game. Saints-Ravens would also be very attractive. Texans-Titans, Jags-Colts, and Chiefs-Rams are also options, with Falcons-Seahawks as a dark horse.

Week 16 (December 26)

• Tentative game: San Diego @ Cincinnati
• Prospects: 2-4 v. 2-3, and the Bengals will have trouble catching up to the Ravens and Steelers.
• Likely protections: Jets-Bears (CBS) and Giants-Packers (FOX).
• Other possible games: Chiefs-Titans is your best option with two teams above .500. Texans-Broncos, Colts-Raiders, Redskins-Jaguars, Seahawks-Bucs, and Vikings-Eagles are also options. So as far as interest in the game goes, flexing won’t improve this game much. It is conceivable that the Titans fall out of the division running behind the Colts and Texans, the Chargers make their usual mid-season surge, the Bengals hover around .500, and the NFL decides to stick with two name teams.

Week 17 (January 3):

• Playoff positioning watch begins Week 9.

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind):

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:20 p.m. ET.
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:20 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling, but are now protected after Week 5.
• Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. At this writing, no team is completely tapped out at any measure, although the Jets have five primetime appearances and can’t be flexed out of any of them, which is a problem since five other teams also have five primetime appearances and can be flexed out of them. (So naturally this turned into the Year of Parity!) NBC appearances for all teams: MIN 2, NO 2, DAL 3 (1 flexible), WSH 2, NYG 3 (1 flexible), IND 3 (1 flexible), NYJ 1, MIA 1, CHI 1, PHI 3 (2 flexible), SF 1, GB 3 (1 flexible), PIT 3 (1 flexible), NE 2 (1 flexible), SD 2 (both flexible), BAL 1 (flexible), CIN 1 (flexible). All primetime appearances for all teams: MIN 4, NO 4, DAL 5 (1 flexible), WSH 3, NYG 4 (1 flexible), IND 5 (1 flexible), NYJ 5, MIA 3, CHI 4, PHI 5 (2 flexible), SF 4, GB 4 (1 flexible), PIT 5 (1 flexible), NE 4 (1 flexible), SD 5 (2 flexible), BAL 4 (1 flexible), CIN 3 (1 flexible), ATL 2, HOU 3, TEN 2, CAR 1, ARI 2, KC 1, JAX 1, DEN 1.
• A rule that may have come to light late 2008 but that, given its restrictiveness and lateness in coming to light, I’m having trouble accepting, is that the balance of primetime games taken from FOX and CBS can’t go beyond 22-20 one way or the other. The current tally is FOX 18, CBS 17; with tentative games, the tally is FOX 21, CBS 20. With this rule in place, Weeks 12, 13, and 16 cannot be flexed away from NFC road games without making up for it in Weeks 11, 14, 15, and 17.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 21):

• Tentative game: NY Giants @ Philadelphia
• Prospects: Both teams at 3-2, so could go either way, but looking good for now.
• Likely protections: Packers-Vikings (FOX) and Colts-Patriots (CBS).
• Other possible games: Jets-Texans, Chiefs-Cardinals, Redskins-Titans, with Falcons-Rams, Saints-Seahawks, and Raiders-Steelers as dark horses, all very dependent on how everything shakes out. (Given how chaotic this year is shaking out to be, that goes for all of these weeks and goes double.) CBS would probably protect Jets-Texans based strictly on records, but there’s only one win of difference. Fox would likewise protect Redskins-Titans based strictly on records, and may be tempted to do so anyway, considering Brett Favre may end up retiring by Week 11 – but the temptation of him playing his former team will be too much, especially with an NFC East game as the tentative. (I’ve even seen quite a few people suggesting leaving this week unprotected.)

Week 12 (November 28):

• Tentative game: San Diego @ Indianapolis
• Prospects: 3-2 v. 2-3, but the Chargers always start slow. But there are some ominous signs in the Colts’ losses…
• Likely protections: Reportedly, Eagles-Bears (FOX) and Titans-Texans, Jags-Giants, or nothing (CBS). Bucs-Ravens is slightly better than Eagles-Bears, but the latter contains more name teams and bigger markets.
• Other possible games: Thanksgiving Weekend, paucity of good games. Besides the potentially protected games, Packers-Falcons, Bucs-Ravens, and who knows, maybe even Vikings-Redskins or Chiefs-Seahawks.

Week 13 (December 5):

• Tentative game: Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
• Prospects: 4-1 v. 3-1, potentially deciding the AFC North. Extremely good chance of keeping its spot.
• Likely protections: Falcons-Bucs or Cowboys-Colts, more likely the latter (FOX) and Jags-Titans if anything (CBS). This week has only one good CBS game but a better tentative compared to the other CBS unprotected candidate.
• Other possible games: Redskins-Giants or the potentially protected games, with Chiefs-Broncos, Rams-Cardinals, and Saints-Bengals as potential dark horses.

Week 14 (December 12):

• Tentative game: Philadelphia @ Dallas
• Prospects: 3-2 v. 1-3, but an NFC East game always = ratings, so Fox would still be happy to take this game. This is probably still the most likely unprotected week for Fox.
• Likely protections: Patriots-Bears (CBS) and probably nothing (FOX).
• Other possible games: Giants-Vikings and Bucs-Redskins are the main Fox protection candidates if they did protect something. Broncos-Cardinals, Jags-Raiders, Bengals-Steelers, Rams-Saints, and Chiefs-Chargers are dark horses.

Week 15 (December 19):

• Tentative game: Green Bay @ New England
• Prospects: 3-2 v. 3-1 means a pretty good chance of keeping its spot.
• Likely protections: Jets-Patriots (CBS) and Saints-Ravens or Redskins-Cowboys, more likely the latter (FOX). CBS would be putting potential big AFC South games at risk (see below) with a Fox tentative game, but not only might Jets-Patriots decide the division, but the winner could get a first-round bye with the loser going on the road in the first round.
• Other possible games: Texans-Titans, Jags-Colts, or Eagles-Giants, with Chiefs-Rams and Falcons-Seahawks as dark horses.

Week 16 (December 26)

• Tentative game: San Diego @ Cincinnati
• Prospects: Both at 2-3, and the Bengals will have trouble catching up to the Ravens and Steelers.
• Likely protections: Jets-Bears (CBS) and Giants-Packers (FOX).
• Other possible games: Texans-Broncos, Chiefs-Titans, Colts-Raiders, Redskins-Jaguars, or Seahawks-Bucs. Vikings-Eagles has an outside shot, but not enough for Fox to protect it – Brett Favre might not even make it to that game.

Week 17 (January 3):

• Playoff positioning watch begins Week 9.