Simulated Experts’ Fantasy League: Week 1 Recap

I’ve firmed up the regular season schedule:

  1. NFL v. FLEA, PROS v. ESPN, RTFS v. CBS, KFFL v. FOX, FFTB v. YHOO, USAT v. SI
  2. ESPN v. NFL, FLEA v. USAT, SI v. FFTB, YHOO v. KFFL, FOX v. RTFS, CBS v. PROS
  3. NFL v. CBS, PROS v. FOX, RTFS v. YHOO, KFFL v. SI, FFTB v. USAT, ESPN v. FLEA
  4. NFL v. PROS, YHOO v. USAT, FOX v. FFTB, CBS v. KFFL, ESPN v. RTFS, SI v. FLEA
  5. FFTB v. NFL, USAT v. ESPN, SI v. CBS, YHOO v. FOX, FLEA v. RTFS, KFFL v. PROS
  6. NFL v. KFFL, CBS v. USAT, FOX v. SI, ESPN v. FFTB, PROS v. RTFS, YHOO v. FLEA
  7. RTFS v. NFL, KFFL v. ESPN, USAT v. FOX, FFTB v. CBS, SI v. YHOO, FLEA v. PROS
  8. NFL v. FOX, CBS v. ESPN, FLEA v. FFTB, USAT v. KFFL, SI v. RTFS, YHOO v. PROS
  9. NFL v. YHOO, ESPN v. FOX, PROS v. SI, RTFS v. USAT, KFFL v. FFTB, CBS v. FLEA
  10. SI v. NFL, YHOO v. ESPN, FOX v. CBS, FLEA v. KFFL, FFTB v. RTFS, USAT v. PROS
  11. USAT v. NFL, CBS v. YHOO, ESPN v. SI, PROS v. FFTB, RTFS v. KFFL, FOX v. FLEA
  12. v. , v. , v. , v. , v. , v. #12
  13. v. , v. , v. , v. , v. , v. #12
  14. v. , v. , v. #12, v. , v. , v.

Note that in the last three weeks, will be the team with the best win-loss record after 11 weeks, but -#12 will be picked in order of total points scored.

Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees got Politically Incorrect and Swimsuit Issues, respectively, off to a rollicking start with their offensive explosion in Thursday’s kickoff game. Brees scored more, but RTFS benefited more from the game with the winning effort by the Packers defense. But RTFS came out of the game with a relatively small lead over The SportsLine, no thanks to Greg Jennings also having a big day.

With two exceptions, the scores an hour into the first round of games could all be explained by the number of players active. But Indy Tea Party was woefully underproducing with only four points, worst among all teams, and was losing by over 30 points to the College Busters. Also, Team Infograph led Swimsuit Issues despite fewer players active, a lead that remained constant, though relatively small, thanks to a yeoman’s effort by the Bucs defense. As the Bucs allowed more points, though, SI retook the lead. SI’s Jets defense wouldn’t take the field until the Sunday Night game.

Another game where the outcome started to fall into place during the early Sunday games was Inside Information against Commissioner’s Favorite. Big days from Calvin Johnson and Michael Vick propelled FLEA to a 44-9 lead 90 minutes into the early games, arguably outperforming the five active players it had and casting doubt over whether NFL could catch up. Also by 90 minutes in, College Busters had actually already outscored Politically Incorrect and led Indy Tea Party by a whopping 60 points. At the half of the early games, Takedown Glaze led KFFL 40-28, Wisdom of Crowds led Worldwide Leaders and Swimsuit Issues led Team Infograph by 10 each, and Politically Incorrect maintained a 30-point lead over The SportsLine.

Indy Tea Party picked up more points in the second half, thanks to Kenny Britt’s big TD catch-and-run; meanwhile, the Ron Burgundy All-Stars pulled surprisingly close to Takedown Glaze in the third quarter, as Anquan Boldin and Andre Johnson caught fire, but Josh Freeman’s comeback attempt proved killer, as did (for a time) the start of the Vikings-Chargers game giving College Busters defensive bonuses, and when Fleaflicker came back from an extended outage shortly after the late games started, the scores were: FLEA 72-14 NFL; FOX 83-60 KFFL; ESPN 57-59 PROS; YHOO 86-38 FFTB; CBS 59-64 RTFS; and SI 81-51 USAT.

Worldwide Leaders had a chance to take a substantial lead in the late game with Hakeem Nicks, Mario Manningham, and Fred Davis active, while Wisdom of Crowds only had Donovan McNabb. That they did: Nicks in particular had a big day and ESPN was the first team to end their week with 85.8 points, good for third place and a 22.5 point lead over Wisdom of Crowds with LaDainian Tomlinson still to play in the Sunday Night game. LT had a relatively pedestrian performance and the only match without Monday Night participants ended 85.7-71.86, ESPN winning. Scarily, Worldwide Leaders could have gone over 120 by starting Steve Smith of the Panthers; as it stood they wound up with the fewest points of any winner.

Cedric Benson had caught fire late to drive The SportsLine closer to Politically Incorrect, and CBS had a chance to take the lead with no RTFS players active if Ahmad Bradshaw and Vernon Davis caught fire and the Chargers’ defensive bonuses held up. That’s exactly what happened: Bradshaw had a big day and the Chargers picked off McNabb, and The SportsLine led by 2 early in the second half. But they could only increase that lead to 3.3 in the second half.

Commissioner’s Favorite needed to get out of the scoring basement with five players, including Philip Rivers and Adrian Peterson, active, despite Inside Information having three of their own. Tim Hightower’s gimme touchdown helped in that department, and Rivers also had a big day. NFL made it to 71 points by the end of the late games, only 10 behind Inside Information, who was hurt by the loss of Derrick Ward and Danny Amendola, and NFL had one more player yet to play than FLEA.

Beanie Wells also had a good day to help bring the Ron Burgundy All-Stars up to 72.88 points, needing 14.9 from the last player in the matchup to pass Takedown Glaze. One problem: that player was kicker Dan Carpenter. On Monday, he closed the final margin to 88.06-78.88, Takedown Glaze winning. College Busters and Swimsuit Issues finished the late games with huge leads over Indy Tea Party and Team Infograph, with YHOO boasting a whopping 105.5 points, nearly twenty more than the next-highest-scoring team, Takedown Glaze.

On Sunday Night, Inside Information counted on the Cowboys defense to top off their point total, while the Jets defense would pad Swimsuit Issues’ point total. Commissioner’s Favorite hoped Santonio Holmes could help them catch FLEA, while Politically Incorrect hoped Felix Jones could give them at least a temporary lead heading into Monday. Holmes had a decent day but never found the end zone, while the Cowboys defense had a stout enough performance, with 4 sacks and an INT, to pad FLEA’s lead just a little to 12 points for Reggie Bush to make up in the Monday Night game. Jones gave RTFS an 11-point lead over The SportsLine, while the Jets defense’s role in almost single-handedly causing the win caused Swimsuit Issues to move into second in total points, 15.24 points behind College Busters.

As the first Monday Night game progressed, the most interesting match shaped up to be that between Inside Information and Commissioner’s Favorite. Reggie Bush had a rather productive day, and NFL took the win on Bush’s touchdown with three and a half minutes left in the game, the final margin 92.9-89.48. Team Infograph also pulled surprisingly close to Swimsuit Issues when Tom Brady had a historic day (35.1 fantasy points), enough to shoot up into the top five, and enough for Brandon Lloyd to have a good chance to close the gap in the late game; however, he had no touchdowns and Team Infograph just barely fell short to Swimsuit Issues 107.06-100.68, the most points of any loser. The SportsLine, meanwhile, pulled well ahead of Politically Incorrect with Chad Henne having a superb day, Brandon Marshall doing well as well, and Davone Bess being underwhelming. If Arian Foster’s injury replacement Willis McGahee had 17.36 points, CBS could pass College Busters for the Week 1 points lead; however, McGahee managed only 4 yards.

The late game mattered little to the remaining two games. The SportsLine beat Politically Incorrect 119.24-87.4, and while Sebastian Janikowski’s incredible night pulled Indy Tea Party out of the points cellar, there was no beating a College Busters team with 14 more points than anyone else, and YHOO took the win 133.1-97.16. When all was said and done, Wisdom of Crowds would have the fewest points of the first week, followed by Ron Burgundy All-Stars.

KFFL had to cut done-for-the-year Nate Kaeding, but still has reach pick Dan Carpenter. Because FantasyPros doesn’t do waiver wire picks, I used a combination of Week 1 performances and Week 2 rankings to determine what they should do on the waiver wire, so Rex Grossman is in and Lance Moore is out. KFFL then nabbed Cam Newton to fill the empty spot; of their “priority additions”, Cadillac Williams and the Lions defense are already on teams and KFFL can’t add another WR without cutting one. With waiver wire order based solely on scoring, Worldwide Leaders was next, and decided not to get anything (also maxed out on WRs). Politically Incorrect will make waiver-wire decisions based solely on past performance; Jimmy Graham is gone, Scott Chandler is in. For Takedown Glaze, the Eagles’ Steve Smith is out and Devery Henderson is in. For Inside Information, Zach Miller is out and Early Doucet is in. Commissioner’s Favorite passes, while for Indy Tea Party, Austin Collie is out and Anthony Armstrong is in. Derrick Mason is out and Earnest Graham is in for Team Infograph, while Swimsuit Issues replaced Marcedes Lewis with Jacoby Jones. FLEA also replaced Kendall Hunter the Cowboys defense with the Niners defense, with Fox following by replacing the Vikings defense with the Raiders defense. FLEA also brought in Marcel Reece to replace Derrick Ward, cutting Hines Ward.

NFL Schedule: Week 2

I realized that last week’s schedule wasn’t given the Blog News tag, so… yeah, we’re doing this now. Check the Week 1 schedule for explanations. One change from last week: I’m now getting betting lines from Vegas.com, which was my intention from the start, but it wasn’t available last week. The main benefit, ultimately, is that I won’t have to sort out ties between various sources.

What is the Median Expected Score?

Away MXS Home Time (ET) TV DTV Announcers WW1? SIRIUS Notes
Away Home
(0-1) 12¾-27¼ (0-1) Sun 1:00 PM 713 Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston, Tony Siragusa 139 93 Two playoff teams looking to bounce back from Week 1 losses.
(1-0) 20-23 (1-0) Sun 1:00 PM 705 Kevin Harlan, Solomon Wilcots 148 104 Both teams got surprise wins Week 1, but are they for real?
(1-0) 20¼-24¼ (1-0) Sun 1:00 PM 709 Chris Myers, Tim Ryan 91 112 Will the Cardinals defense do for Sexy Rexy what they did for Cam Newton?
(0-1 19-22 (0-1) Sun 1:00 PM 710 Dick Stockton, John Lynch 104 113 McNabb looks to redeem himself for last week’s disappointing performance.
(1-0) 19¾-29¼ (1-0) Sun 1:00 PM 707 Greg Gumbel, Dan Dierdorf Yes 136 85 Jags have won last three, but not against a Jets team this strong.
(1-0) 20-27 (0-1) Sun 1:00 PM 712 Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Pam Oliver 128 86 Saints looked great in a narrow losing effort. But it won’t be any easier getting past Da Bears.
(1-0) 28¼-18¼ (0-1) Sun 1:00 PM 711 Ron Pitts, Jim Mora 94 117 Newton looked like a Pro Bowler last week, but the Packers aren’t the Cardinals.
(1-0) 22-16 (0-1) Sun 1:00 PM 706 Bill Macatee, Steve Tasker 134 149 The Matt Hasselbeck era didn’t start off well, and the Ravens will be far tougher than the Jags.
(0-1) 18½-26½ (1-0) Sun 1:00 PM 704 Don Criqui, Randy Cross 137 135 After getting shellacked by the Bills, the Chiefs get a Lions team that looks like a playoff team.
(0-1) 21-18½ (0-1) Sun 1:00 PM 708 Marv Albert, Rich Gannon 106 92 The Kerry Collins era didn’t start well, but surely the Colts can do better against the Browns?
(0-1) 22¾-19¾ (1-0) Sun 4:05 PM 714 Thom Brennaman, Brian Billick, Laura Okmin 92 139 Romo seeks redemption against a team looking to stake their claim to the NFC West.
(1-0) 18-22 (0-1) Sun 4:15 PM 715 Spero Dedes, Steve Beuerlein 91 94 The Bengals try to spoil Orton’s attempt to shake off the Tebow chants.
(1-0) 23¼-30¼ (1-0) Sun 4:15 PM 717 Jim Nantz, Phil Simms 93 86 Brady won’t be able to repeat his historic performance against the Chargers defense.
(1-0) 25½-22½ (0-1) Sun 4:15 PM 716 Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts Yes 112 85 Texans’ quest for the playoffs is underway, and the team Brady torched should help.
(1-0) 26-23½ (0-1) Mon 8:20 PM Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya Yes 92 93 The Dream Team makes their primetime debut as Vick returns to his old stomping grounds.
(0-1) 18¾-24¾ (0-1) Mon 8:30 PM Mike Tirico, Jon Gruden, Ron Jaworski, Suzy Kolber Yes 92 93 Both teams need to recover from devastating Week 1 losses.

Cleaning up some notes on the sports television wars

So I made a big deal about the new Thursday Night Football contract coming down later this month, and it came out today that it’s probably not happening by the end of the year at least. Not that my post was completely useless, as it may well still happen in time to show up on the 2012 schedule (my guess is an announcement will come Super Bowl weekend), but it won’t be happening quite as quickly as I implied.

That came out in a press conference to announce ESPN re-upping with the NFL for the next decade, which like the PGA TOUR with CBS and NBC, was pretty much a formality, reported as early as January. It does mean, though, that combined with reported ongoing negotiations to re-up with the NFL’s other TV partners, the TNF package may be more than a two-year trial run, but may be another decade-long deal. Also, the scorecard now reflects NBC taking back the Belmont Stakes from ABC, which wasn’t announced until this past February.

3.5 4.5 2.5 .5 0

NFL Schedule: Week 1

This is a new feature I’m trying out that will undoubtedly suck up all of my time: the NFL schedule for each week, with all the information you could possibly want, including DirecTV Sunday Ticket channel numbers, announcers from Awful Announcing, and coverage maps from the506.com. (Click the network logo for the coverage map.) Teams with a golden outline hold a lineal title.

The numbers between the team logos cram a lot of gambling-related information into a small space. That is the MXS, or Median Expected Score, an amalgamation of the point spread and over/under number. The formula is: 2U+S=N, where N is the over/under number, S is the point spread, and U is the underdog’s MXS. The favorite’s MXS is simply U+S, so when you add the two together you get 2L+S.

Away MXS Home Time (ET) TV DTV Announcers WW1? SIRIUS Notes
Away Home
21½-26½ Thu 8:30 PM Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya Yes 92 93 Let’s get back to football! Last two Super Bowl champions.
21½-19 Sun 1:00 PM 709 Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston, Tony Siragusa 134 92 Defensive showdown between the NFC’s two best teams of the last regular season.
17¼-25¾ Sun 1:00 PM 706 Greg Gumbel, Dan Dierdorf 136 137 No Manning, big problems: could this be the Texans’ year?
17-23 Sun 1:00 PM 708 Marv Albert, Rich Gannon 117 91 Chiefs fans start getting the answer to the question: Was last year for real?
17½-19½ Sun 1:00 PM 707 Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts 149 135 Manning’s injury gives these teams hope, if they can get off on the right foot.
14½-21 Sun 1:00 PM 705 Kevin Harlan, Solomon Wilcots 106 113 Will this intrastate rivalry kick off the Andrew Luck Sweepstakes?
24¼-19¾ Sun 1:00 PM 710 Thom Brennaman, Brian Billick, Laura Okmin 93 138 The Dream Team kicks off against the NFC West favorites.
17-19 Sun 1:00 PM 704 Jim Nantz, Phil Simms Yes 112 86 What better way to honor the 10th anniversary of 9/11 than one of the NFL’s hottest rivalries?
19½-21½ Sun 1:00 PM 711 Chris Myers, Tim Ryan 128 94 People are feeling optimistic about the Lions. Will it prove well-founded?
16½-25 Sun 4:15 PM 713 Ron Pitts, Jim Mora Yes 139 93 The McNabb era starts in Minnesota, while the Chargers seek redemption.
20¼-17¼ Sun 4:15 PM 715 Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Pam Oliver 92 86 More than an NFC East rivalry, it’s honoring the day that changed both cities forever.
15-22 Sun 4:15 PM 712 Sam Rosen, Chad Pennington 136 94 Fans hope new quarterbacks for both teams change their fortunes.
16-21½ Sun 4:15 PM 714 Dick Stockton, John Lynch 91 85 Harbaugh starts his coaching career against old college rival Carroll.
17¾-22¾ Sun 8:20 PM Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya Yes 92 93 It’s Ryan vs. Ryan as two highly-scrutinized teams square off.
26¼-19¼ Mon 7:00 PM Mike Tirico, Jon Gruden, Ron Jaworski, Suzy Kolber Yes 92 93 Patriots begin their latest Super Bowl quest with a divisional showdown.
18¾-21¾ Mon 10:15 PM Brad Nessler, Trent Dilfer Yes 113 94 Close out the first week of the NFL season with an AFC West clash.

The Simulated Experts’ Fantasy League

Way back in 2007, during the very first year of Da Blog, I flirted with holding a simulated fantasy league to find out which site had the best experts, even going so far as holding a draft before the combined stress of that and counting up points by hand in Excel (good luck finding a site that will let you run every team in a league – even the one I chose I have to trick) forced me to abandon it right away. However, last year my thoughts turned towards trying again, so that’s what I’m going to do, even though other sites have sprung up to compare fantasy experts, and have gone as far as actually holding a league of the top experts.

Rosters are 16 players, with starters 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 RB/WR, 1 DST, 1 K. (Maximums: 4 QB, 7 RB or WR, 3 TE, DST, or K.) Scoring is as follows, based on the general consensus of the rules of most leagues. I wound up designing the scoring rules for defensive yardage myself, because very few leagues have them by default and those that do have wildly differing philosophies. It would have been most fair to omit them entirely, but I went with realism over standards.

  • 4 points per passing TD
  • 6 points per TD (except QB passing)
  • 2 points per 2-point conversion
  • 1 point per 25 passing yards
  • 1 point per 10 running or receiving yards
  • -2 points per turnover (interceptions or lost fumbles)
  • 1 point per PAT
  • 3 points per field goal
  • 4 points per FG of 40-50 yards
  • 5 points per FG of >50 yards
  • 2 points per defensive turnover
  • 2 points per safety
  • 1 point per sack
  • 10 points for 0 points allowed
  • 7 points for <7 points allowed
  • 4 points for <14 points allowed
  • 1 point for <21 points allowed
  • 0 points for <28 points allowed
  • -1 point for <35 points allowed
  • -4 points for >35 points allowed
  • 10 points for <100 yards allowed
  • 7 points for <200 yards allowed
  • 4 points for <250 yards allowed
  • 1 point for <300 yards allowed
  • 0 points for <400 yards allowed
  • -1 point for <500 yards allowed
  • -4 points for >500 yards allowed

The way the schedule works, each team plays each other once and plays three other teams an additional time, for a total of 14 games. The team with the most overall points through 14 weeks is guaranteed a spot in the playoffs regardless of record. To ensure a balanced schedule, the schedule for weeks 12, 13, and 14 – the three additional games – will not be finalized until after Week 11. The entire schedule isn’t finalized yet. Roster moves are handled largely the same way they were going to be in 2007. The draft is being held Wednesday (I was going to do it sooner but I was waiting to see if Yahoo would have rankings that at least took into account the Chris Johnson signing), with the following first-round order; I restricted myself to sites that posted overall rankings instead of just positional rankings. Keep checking this page and my tweeter as the draft progresses.

  1. Commissioner’s Favorite (NFL.com): Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings
  2. Worldwide Leaders (ESPN): Chris Johnson, RB, Titans
  3. The SportsLine (CBS): Arian Foster, RB, Texans
  4. Takedown Glaze (Fox): Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs (Note: I’m also using these very outdated rankings as the above-linked ones look too weird to be draft rankings as opposed to Week 1 rankings.)
  5. College Busters (Yahoo): Ray Rice, RB, Ravens
  6. Swimsuit Issues (SI): LeSean McCoy, RB, Eagles
  7. Team Infograph (USA Today): Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jaguars
  8. Indy Tea Party (FFToolbox.com): Darren McFadden, RB, Raiders
  9. Ron Burgundy All-Stars (KFFL): Andre Johnson, WR, Texans
  10. Politically Incorrect (RealTime Fantasy Sports): Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers
  11. Wisdom of Crowds (FantasyPros): Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Steelers
  12. Inside Information (Fleaflicker): Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions (more after the jump)

    Read more

Handicapping the Thursday Night Football race

Good news: We’re not getting an 18-game schedule!

If that’s the bad news for the NFL, here’s the good news: They’re going to take Thursday Night Football full-season!

Back in 2006, the NFL surprised many observers by putting a slate of late-season Thursday night games on its own NFL Network, rebuffing offers from other cable networks. Now reports are that the NFL will soon be awarding an early-season slate of Thursday-night games, giving those networks a second chance. And with the sports television wars heating up, the timing couldn’t be better, as the NFL – somewhat unexpectedly – plays host to the second major battle of the Wars with the Olympics in the rear view, one with no true incumbent.

Naturally, all the major cable players are involved, as well as one surprising dark horse; according to reports, Turner and Comcast are the front-runners. The NFL could even hand over control of the NFL Network to the winner. Before we continue, I should mention that I doubt the NFL will sign with any network for more than two years, when their other contracts expire. That means this contract will ultimately be a “trial balloon” of sorts. That said, here are the major players, what they have to gain, what they have going against them, and what their ultimate chances are:

Turner Sports

What they’re fighting for: Turner has the major advantage of not only having cable sports experience, but even being a pre-existing NFL rightsholder, holding half the then-Sunday night package until ESPN decided they wanted the whole thing. They’ve wanted to get back into the game ever since; apparently during the 2005 negotiations, Turner had actually hired some analysts for games before striking out on all the packages. Putting NFL games on TNT would not only give them a shot at redemption, it also would be the best fit from the perspective of the uninformed casual fan wondering why the Thursday night games move to the NFL Network midseason – the NFL would shuffle off TNT just in time for the NBA season to start. Turner also has experience running a league-owned network in NBA TV. Then there’s the prestige factor; Turner would join ESPN as the only entities to have all four of the modern major sports at the same time.

What they have going against them: Turner is already established in the game, which means they don’t have as much to gain as the next contenders…

NBC/Comcast

What they’re fighting for: Simply put, nothing less than firmly establishing their position as the competitor to ESPN they so dearly want to be. You know Comcast is looking longingly at the blueprint ESPN established for their success using NFL games. They’d love to relish the sweet irony of turning that blueprint against them, especially with the ability to tie it in to the NBC Sunday Night package (and make the season-opening game on NBC a natural extention of the Thursday package). In fact, in 2005 Comcast and Versus came closest of any other entity to getting the Thursday night package before the NFL took it to the NFL Network, setting up a lengthy carriage dispute between NFLN and the nation’s largest cable operator.

There’s a meme going around that Comcast tapped themselves out of cash on their Olympic bid, but that doesn’t make much sense to me. As I’ve said before, I don’t buy that two weeks every two years will grow the soon-to-be-NBC-Sports-Network, especially since audiences, even if they hate tape delays, have grown used to watching NBC’s primetime Olympic highlights packages. For Comcast to spend so much money on the Olympics that they’d doom any effort to get another high-profile package seems like a risky all-in bet to me for their ESPN-killer hopes. And they, too, have experience running a league-owned network, even if it’s just the mtn.; NFLN could also look to the Golf Channel to see what Comcast running the show might look like.

What they have going against them: I don’t think Comcast is hurting too much for money in the short term, the NFL’s relationship with Comcast has improved since the NFLN carriage dispute, and NBC Sports Network could probably handle showing games just fine, even if it shows UFL games right now. So what would a problem be? Well, Comcast may ultimately decide that, while the NFL would be nice, it has other options to grow the NBC Sports Network… like Major League Baseball in a year or two. For reasons I’ll get to when we get closer to those negotiations, if Comcast doesn’t win this fight I would consider them the favorites to snag some MLB games, and if Comcast decides they have a better chance of beating Turner or ESPN for MLB rights than beating a crowded field for eight NFL games, they might decide to underbid now.

Fox

What they’re fighting for: Fox has made no secret of their ambitions to return big-time sports to FX. The NFL would not only fit the bill nicely, but would also tie in nicely to Fox’s existing NFL package, and NFLN would be just one more sport-specific network to join the likes of Speed, Fox Soccer Channel, BTN, and Fuel TV.

What they have going against them: Fox’s existing NFL package is all the NFC games the primetime packages don’t snag, while FX would show games from both CBS and Fox, which would be awkward. But a far bigger issue is that, according to reports, cable operators have a clause that protects them from any rate hikes for FX. That means nothing Fox adds to FX’s lineup can increase their revenue from subscriber fees, effectively reducing FX to the level of a broadcast network and preventing them from effectively competing with networks that can hike their fees to cable operators. I would expect Fox to try to change this at the soonest opportunity – whether or not they can is another matter – but until they do any serious effort to turn FX into a sports power is likely to be a nonstarter, including netting them a slate of NFL games. FX will likely have to settle for its new UFC programming to grow their sports brand, along with select college football games.

ESPN

What they’re fighting for: An existing slate of NFL games that would tie in neatly, as well as the most powerful brand in sports. Also, ESPN once floated the idea of increasing NFLN’s distribution by merging it with ESPN Classic, so they’ve flirted with taking over the network before. For the most part, though, ESPN is mostly fighting to keep this slate away from (or make it cost-prohibitive for) their competitors, especially Comcast.

What they have going against them: Besides their utter lack of motivation, ESPN has already committed to college football on Thursdays; their fall slate is already pretty crowded, though ESPN could bump college football to the Deuce. Also, while ESPN may have flirted with NFL Network before, they have never run a network owned by another entity – Longhorn Network, which is less than a week old, is wholly owned by ESPN – and neither ESPNU nor LHN quite prepares them for the challenges they’d face running the NFL Network, owned by them or not.

Spike TV

What they’re fighting for: The big five contenders in the sports TV wars represent only five of the top six biggest media conglomerates in the country. You have to imagine that Viacom – the other half of the split that produced the CBS Corporation – wants to take their own place in the wars. Since the then-National Network picked up WWE programming in 2000, the network now known as Spike TV has used first WWE and later UFC programming to goose its fortunes. Now the UFC has bailed for Fox, and Spike may feel it needs another draw. The NFL would seem to fit the bill nicely.

What they have going against them: I’ll believe that Viacom is serious about competing in the war when I see it. For now, I’ll simply point out that like Turner, Viacom doesn’t have a broadcast TV outlet (not even a potential one like the CW). Like Turner, Viacom could shack up with its former corporate sibling CBS for anything that would seem to need a broadcast outlet. Unlike Turner, Viacom has zero experience broadcasting sports – even their WWE and UFC programming has been produced by those entities themselves – other than TNN’s time showcasing the short-lived XFL, and even less experience running a league-owned network. It’s going to take a lot of doing to convince any league to shack up with someone as unproven as Spike. Comcast managed to convince the NHL to shack up with a little outfit called the Outdoor Life Network; can Spike convince a prominent league to do the same? In any case, Spike isn’t mentioned in the SportsBusiness Daily’s latest reporting on the subject, so they’re probably out of the running by now, if they ever were.

Who will ultimately come out on top? Past history backs up the notion that Comcast and Turner are the favorites, as does motivation. Both factors also suggest Comcast will come out ahead. By all accounts, Versus would have nabbed the Thursday Night Football rights in 2006 if the NFL hadn’t given them to the NFL Network, and Comcast has far more motivation as well, with nothing less than the cornerstone of a new sports empire at stake. If the soon-to-be NBC Sports Network wins this package, it will go down as a turning point in the history of sports television in America, the point that gave birth to an entity with enough firepower to challenge ESPN’s stranglehold over the sports landscape.

Back in July, Ken Fang of the Fang’s Bites blog tabbed Fox as the third favorite over ESPN, citing Fox’s motivation and ESPN’s crowded schedule. I think he underestimates the impact of FX’s inability to raise subscriber rates, as well as ESPN’s desperate desire for Comcast not to get the rights. The last thing ESPN wants is for Comcast to gain a foothold that would allow them to become a true competitor to ESPN. Unless Turner proves virtually untouchable, I would expect ESPN to stay in the race right to the end, at least trying to influence the outcome.

Comcast is the most likely to pick up eight Thursday night NFL games unless Turner and ESPN can hold them off. I don’t know if ESPN can tip the scales from Comcast to Turner, but they can certainly bite the bullet and crowd their Thursday night schedule in the early season if they value not having a lot more to worry about from Comcast for many, many years to come. Many sports fans have been hoping for some sort of real competition to ESPN. Within a month, they may have their answer.

The PGA TOUR re-ups with CBS and NBC

I almost feel like this was a formality, as it only brings the broadcast rights to expire at the same time as the existing Golf Channel deal. ESPN’s alleged quest to kill sports on ABC probably took that network out of the running, and golf will never, ever be on Fox. But it does take place after the NBC/Comcast merger went through, keeps golf off ABC for the rest of the decade, and apparently broadens the Golf Channel’s role, so however technically, it counts as a win for NBC and CBS.

What’s far more notable is Versus’s new evening programming, which turns out not to be the SportsCenter-killer I was hoping it’d be, but still, baby steps.

2.5 3.5 2.5 .5 0

Cleanup on aisle UFC

Because I don’t want to roll this up into a much longer NFL post…

I posed the question as to who would control the UFC’s broadcasts on Fox as “Gus Johnson or Mike Goldberg?” The answer might be both: because of the sheer volume of UFC programming on Fox and FX, the UFC is thinking about bringing in more commentators to take some of the load off of Goldberg and Joe Rogan, which Johnson’s existing relationships with Strikeforce and Fox would make him a natural fit for. Similarly, while UFC will still be controlling the presentation, they will work closely with Fox to make it as good as it can be.

As for the quality of fights to expect on free TV, the UFC’s rights fee is substantially smaller than that of other sports, so pay-per-view will remain the backbone of the business, implying you won’t see Brock Lesnar v. Fedor Emelianenko on Fox anytime soon. That article makes it feel more like a stepping-stone, putting the product on broadcast TV to increase exposure and respect to the point where the company can afford a real TV deal. However, the UFC will be cutting back on PPVs slightly, all parties made clear that this deal is “just the beginning” and a foundation for future growth, and Dana White told Entertainment Weekly‘s TV blog that “the broadcast fights will be significant matchups, rather than saving all the important bouts for Pay Per View. ‘We want to pull ratings, we want to pull the big numbers,’ White said.” So the Fox fights will be PPV caliber, but will they be top-notch caliber? Rumors that featherweights will be among those featured on the first one-hour Fox show in November have me doubtful about that, at least for the short term, and I don’t know how top-notch the UFC will be able to go in the next seven years on Fox given the rights fee probably isn’t changing.

Still, one thing was already clear: UFC just changed the game in MMA, and may have made themselves completely invulnerable, to the extent they weren’t already, to any attempt to challenge their supremacy.

The UFC’s new TV deal and its impact

(Note: Upon further review, Conference USA reached its agreement with Fox on January 5th, while the Comcast-NBC merger, which I take as the start point of the wars, wasn’t approved until the 18th. The scoreboard at the bottom of this post counts both MLS and IndyCar.)

This was shaping to be the most critical period, as part of the most pivotal year, in the history of MMA.

UFC’s contract with Spike TV, which carried the sport through its rise from backrooms to the brink of the mainstream, was up for renewal, and all signs were that the UFC would not renew with Spike. The direction it went in now would determine the way the sport took shape now and into the future, as well as set where the cap, if any, was for its future growth. It all depended on Dana White’s vision of the ultimate balance of broadcast, cable, premium, and pay-per-view for the sport going forward.

I couldn’t give a vision of what MMA’s mainstream future might look like without having an expert to tell me what differentiates the economics of fight sports from other sports when it comes to pay-per-view, as well as how boxing’s transition to pay-per-view proceeded. I don’t know to what extent MMA’s mainstream future might involve pay-per-view, or whether the biggest cards would air on broadcast television or PPV, only that boxing has proven it cannot become seen as a mainstream sport with the level of reliance on pay-per-view UFC has now. It needs to have events high-profile enough on broadly viewed television to attract large numbers of people and at the very least promote those PPVs.

Regardless of its current popularity, MMA is in a precarious place in terms of perception. At one point the UFC was apparently in talks to buy Comcast’s struggling G4 network and turn it into a UFC network, and the general perception is that if they can muster enough inventory to fill its hours, they’re best positioned of the entities that haven’t launched a sport-specific network already. But for the moment, the UFC can’t afford to put too much programming on a relatively small specialty network if they want to keep growing the sport and get it to be perceived as mainstream. They need a deal with another entity, and Dana White’s insistence on controlling the presentation has, to this point, held up any deal.

Another reason why this was shaping up to be the most pivotal year in the history of MMA was UFC’s acquisition of its biggest rival, Strikeforce, earlier this year. The deal was the most important of many business shake-ups in the industry over the course of the year that consolidated UFC’s position from being the WWE – the undisputed top rank in the chain of mixed martial arts – to the equivalent of the NFL, practically defining professional mixed martial arts. The merger also made UFC inherit Strikeforce’s business relationship with Showtime, the closest thing to a true cable sports network the CBS Corporation has.

Putting UFC events on premium cable is a logical middle ground between broadly-distributed broadcast and cable, and the cash cow of pay-per-view, and while CBS is acutely interested in growing Showtime and putting it closer to the level of HBO, they might have actually held a considerable amount of leverage, as many of Strikeforce’s fighters apparently actually have contracts with Showtime, not with Strikeforce directly. If the UFC wanted to avoid considerable legal wrangling to maintain control of those fighters and keep Showtime from taking them to whatever other organization comes calling, they may have to get a deal done with Showtime, and CBS might take advantage of that situation by insisting on certain high-level programming and privileges for the CBS network, and even putting a substantial amount of programming on CBS Sports Network to grow that network and branch it out beyond college.

Quite a few shows would still be bad enough fits for either that they’d have to stay on Showtime, though, and in general CBS doesn’t have properties with big enough viewership to continue growing the sport beyond the broadcast network. In any case, given the way the UFC does business they’d probably prefer not to be held hostage with Showtime and go through the legal wrangling anyway, or let those fighters go.

There is precedent for the UFC continuing a relationship it inherited from an organization it acquired, though. It didn’t happen with the relationship with FSN the company inherited from PRIDE, but quite a few UFC cards have aired on Versus since UFC inherited its arrangement with WEC. (These cards have shown that UFC has been willing to compromise with regards to presentation, with pre- and post-shows and Versus’ graphics package, but UFC’s announcers and general broadcast structure and feel.) I originally wanted to hold off on writing this post until after the NFL sorted out its Thursday Night package because I didn’t think the UFC would reach an agreement until after then, and because I felt that would have had a big impact on NBC/Comcast’s chances. If Comcast had lost out on the NFL, I would think the UFC would be substantially more reticent to shack up with a network not guaranteed to have any programming much bigger than the UFC itself. The UFC, including shows like The Ultimate Fighter, would be a good starting point for growing the NBC Sports Network, but the limits of its perception would have limited the effect.

The elephant in the living room, though, might be ESPN, and it is here where we come to the reason why I’m hoping Comcast’s proposed new 6 PM ET news show is the beginning of a serious effort to challenge SportsCenter. Personally, I think ESPN’s penchant for only promoting sports it airs on SportsCenter is substantially overstated. The example usually given is that of the NHL, but I think ESPN gives the NHL coverage consummate with its status as a relatively niche sport, with a few highlights every night. During what is, by a significant margin, the most-watched NHL event of the year, the Stanley Cup Final, ESPN goes as far as to send Steve Levy and Barry Melrose to the games to provide highlights and analysis. (If you ask me, FSN’s old “Final Score” program was at least as guilty of favoritism as SportsCenter, airing as many NHL highlights as NBA highlights – because NHL games provide a lot of programming for their regional sports networks.)

However, that’s not to say ESPN doesn’t provide some favoritism to its own sports, and MMA might be a far better example of this. By some measures, MMA has popularity on par with some of the major sports, but though ESPN does air a Friday night MMA Live show on ESPN2, you’d still never know its popularity from watching SportsCenter. MMA tends to get brief, perfunctory highlights at best, usually of just the main event of any given card, and that edited down to maybe a minute. Under the current status quo, MMA absolutely needs the cooperation of ESPN to be considered a major sport, and perhaps that’s why Dana White flirted with ESPN by putting its UFC Primetime show on ESPN2 earlier this year. If broadcast television was important to White, though, ESPN’s penchant for trying to kill sports on ABC might have substantially hindered a deal. It wouldn’t be a deal-breaker, though, so the main obstacle would be that the UFC needs ESPN far more than ESPN needs the UFC.

If UFC wanted to sign with a single organization and wasn’t concerned about broadcast television, Turner would have also been a good fit, with shows like The Ultimate Fighter on TNT and/or truTV and fight cards on HBO. However, although they do want to grow truTV outside the NCAA Tournament, I think Turner would have only been interested to keep Showtime from gaining momentum.

And in the end, that wouldn’t be necessary, because apparently the two major contenders were Comcast and Fox, and Fox is reportedly set to announce a long-term deal later today, which will include up to four events on broadcast television and shows like The Ultimate Fighter on FX, plus some programming on Fuel TV. Fox has always been the “edgier” of the four major networks, which culturally should make them a great fit for the UFC (which would have been iffier for the more genteel NBC or CBS, though CBS has already aired MMA from the defunct EliteXC and Strikeforce), and UFC programming will help FX establish its bona fides as a sports network – and only TNT and ESPN would attract more cable eyeballs to the UFC, at least short-term.

What’s still to be established is whether the four Fox cards would be marquee events, or things closer to the UFC’s Versus and Fight Night on Spike programming, as well as how the presentation will be controlled (Gus Johnson or Mike Goldberg?). I’ll update this post later with those details. But for the moment, the UFC appears to have taken a gigantic step forward towards being perceived as, and actually becoming, a mainstream sport, as well as setting the direction of MMA for years if not decades to come.

2.5 3 2.5 0 0

The latest in the sports television wars

Two pieces of news broke Wednesday in the sports TV wars:

  • NBC picking up MLS doesn’t mean much for NBC/Comcast, given how low MLS is on the totem pole, but it is very good news for MLS. It wasn’t that long ago that no one would have ever said that about a move to Versus, but this move gives MLS a shot at more featured time slots, a place on a channel that now has double the distribution, a chance to take advantage of any other big pick-ups NBC adds down the line, and a return to broadcast television. The MLS Cup will remain on ESPN for the time being, but MLS’ choice is to stay on ESPN or leave primetime – though they may want to unify their English-language coverage under one banner in three years, and I have a feeling NBC/Comcast may wind up with a better shot at it then than ESPN. It’s also bad news for Fox Soccer, for whom MLS was their main summer attraction. This move had been rumored in the past, especially when MLS went past their schedule announcement without a deal with Fox Soccer this season and considered buying time on Versus.
  • On the other hand, ABC managed to renew their relationship with the IndyCar series, despite some thinking that the whole series might be unified under the NBC banner after Versus took the cable contract some years back. This means ABC will maintain its long association with the Indy 500 that will now extend for more than half a century.

I’m undecided over whether to count MLS on my scorecard – I didn’t count when Fox picked up rights to Conference USA. MLS gets more press, but miniscule ratings. Should I count neither, both, or just one or the other? (I really need to update my Sports TV Contracts list from the first year of Da Blog…)