NFL

Week 14 (December 9):

• Tentative game: Detroit @ Green Bay
• Prospects: 4-7 v. 8-3. The Lions briefly looked to have escaped their mediocre start, but right now this game looks awfully lopsided.
• Likely protections: Bears-Vikings or Cardinals-Seahawks if anything, more likely the former (FOX) and Chargers-Steelers (CBS).
• Other possible games mentioned on last week’s Watch and their records: Saints (5-6)-Giants (7-4), Cowboys (5-6)-Bengals (6-5).
• Impact of Monday Night Football: Don’t make me laugh.
• Analysis: I wrote “the .500 teams absolutely have to win unless Bears-Vikings turns out to be unprotected”, and both lost. Saints-Giants looks like an interesting matchup, especially as the Saints have rallied after their disastrous start, but I don’t know that it’s good enough to overcome the tentative game bias. On the one hand, the Saints have been playing better than their record; on the other hand, the Giants would be maxed out, although it’s really doubtful Giants-Eagles gets flexed in Week 17.
• Final prediction: New Orleans Saints @ New York Giants, though I wouldn’t be surprised by no change.
• Actual selection: Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers (no change). (Let it be said that Bears-Vikings would have been a shoo-in had it not been protected.)

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it still says late games start at 4:15 ET instead of 4:25):

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 last year as well as the first year of flexible scheduling, because NBC hosted Christmas night games those years and all the other games were moved to Saturday (and so couldn’t be flexed), but are otherwise protected after Week 5.
• In the past, three teams could appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. I don’t know how the expansion of the Thursday Night schedule affects this, if it does. No team starts the season completely tapped out at any measure; eight teams have five primetime appearances each, but only the Broncos and Bears don’t have at least one game that can be flexed out. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 18):

• Selected game: Baltimore @ Pittsburgh.

Week 12 (November 25):

• Selected game: Green Bay @ NY Giants.

Week 13 (December 2):

• Selected game: Philadelphia @ Dallas.

Week 14 (December 9):

• Tentative game: Detroit @ Green Bay
• Prospects: 4-6 v. 7-3. The Lions briefly looked to have escaped their mediocre start, but right now this game looks awfully lopsided.
• Likely protections: Bears-Vikings or Cardinals-Seahawks if anything, more likely the former (FOX) and Chargers-Steelers (CBS).
• Other possible games: Bears-Vikings is the only game involving two teams above .500 on Sunday. Saints-Giants and Cowboys-Bengals are options, but they might not sweep the NFL off its feet.
• Analysis: If Bears-Vikings is protected, Lions-Packers might well keep its spot by default. The Vikings-Bears half of that rivalry is this week, so even if Bears-Vikings turns out to be unprotected, a Lions win means an 8-3 v. 6-5 game probably isn’t going to overcome the tentative game bias when Lions-Packers would either be only a game worse or a game more lopsided, and I’m not sure a 7-4 v. 7-4 game could overcome the tentative game bias either. So if the Lions win on Thanksgiving, they’re probably keeping their spot, but if they lose things could get a lot more interesting, but the .500 teams absolutely have to win unless Bears-Vikings turns out to be unprotected.

Week 15 (December 16):

• Tentative game: San Francisco @ New England
• Prospects: 7-2-1 v. 7-3, a battle of division leaders; hard to see this one losing its spot against any competition.
• Likely protections: Broncos-Ravens (probably not), Colts-Texans, Steelers-Cowboys, or nothing (CBS) and Giants-Falcons (FOX).
• Other possible games: Broncos-Ravens, Colts-Texans, Packers-Bears (or if it’s protected, Giants-Falcons), a tentative much worse than this would probably be doomed. Steelers-Cowboys and Bucs-Saints are dark horses.

Week 16 (December 23):

• Tentative game: San Diego @ NY Jets
• Prospects: 4-6 v. 4-6. This game can only keep its spot if Tim Tebow is the Jets’ starting quarterback by this point.
• Likely protections: Giants-Ravens (FOX) and Bengals-Steelers if anything (CBS).
• Other possible games: Looking like the only surefire flex, but with the Vikings’ slide 49ers-Seahawks might be a better option than Vikings-Texans, which is now looking very lopsided. Bengals-Steelers is a dark horse if it’s unprotected.

Week 17 (December 30):

AFC Playoff Picture

DIVISION LEADERS	WILD CARD	WAITING IN THE WINGS (4-6)
WEST 47-3	56-4
4-6
EAST 37-3	66-4
3 teams at 4-6
NORTH 28-2	5-5
6-4
SOUTH 19-1
6-4

NFC Playoff Picture

DIVISION LEADERS	WILD CARD	WAITING IN THE WINGS (4-6)
EAST 46-4	57-3
5-5
NORTH 37-3	66-4
7-3
WEST 27-2-1	6-4
6-4	6-4
SOUTH 19-1	5-5
6-4	5-5

• Tentative game: None (NBC will show game with guaranteed playoff implications).
• Possible games: Jets-Bills, Ravens-Bengals, Bears-Lions, Packers-Vikings, Bucs-Falcons, Texans-Colts, Dolphins-Patriots, Cowboys-Redskins, Cardinals-49ers.

Week 13 (December 2):

• Tentative game: Philadelphia @ Dallas
• Prospects: Very iffy at 5-5 v. 3-7 (and the Giants starting to pull away with the division); would even the NFC East factor overcome such mediocre teams?
• Likely protections: 49ers-Rams or Vikings-Packers (FOX) and Steelers-Ravens (CBS).
• Other possible games mentioned on last week’s Watch and their records: Vikings (6-4)-Packers (7-3), Seahawks (6-4)-Bears (7-2), Bucs (6-4)-Broncos (7-3), Pats (7-3)-Dolphins (4-6), Colts (6-4)-Lions (4-6).
• Impact of Monday Night Football: Under normal circumstances, the Bears would be playing to give Seahawks-Bears a leg up over Vikings-Packers and Bucs-Broncos, giving it a better pair of records at the expense of being a little lopsided, something it needs given it’s the least TV-friendly of the three. These aren’t normal circumstances.
• Analysis: Two years ago, against all logic, the NFL kept a tentative with a 3-8 Cowboys team, prompting this rant about how the tentative game bias can be so extreme as to render flex scheduling nearly worthless. With a better Dallas team this year that’s only a game out of the wild card, I suggested that, even with an Eagle loss to make it semi-lopsided and mediocre at best at 5-5 v. 3-7, a Dallas win would pretty much guarantee this game keeps its spot; it would hardly be the worst tentative the NFL has kept. Dallas then had one more loss than Philly has now and the game is less lopsided, while the Cowboys are still in the thick of the playoff race. But the best alternative available then was Chiefs-Chargers at 7-4 v. 6-5, and the collection of 7-3 v. 6-4 games are mighty tempting. If this tentative were anything else, I would bet on Vikings-Packers or Bucs-Broncos. As it stands?
• Final prediction: Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys (no change). (Does the lack of an announcement suggest that Seahawks-Bears has a shot with a Bears win?)

Note: This week’s post does not include the results of the Thursday night game.

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it still says late games start at 4:15 ET instead of 4:25):

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 last year as well as the first year of flexible scheduling, because NBC hosted Christmas night games those years and all the other games were moved to Saturday (and so couldn’t be flexed), but are otherwise protected after Week 5.
• In the past, three teams could appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. I don’t know how the expansion of the Thursday Night schedule affects this, if it does. No team starts the season completely tapped out at any measure; eight teams have five primetime appearances each, but only the Broncos and Bears don’t have at least one game that can be flexed out. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 18):

• Selected game: Baltimore @ Pittsburgh.

Week 12 (November 25):

• Selected game: Green Bay @ NY Giants.

Week 13 (December 2):

• Tentative game: Philadelphia @ Dallas
• Prospects: Very iffy at 4-5 v. 3-6 (and the Giants starting to pull away with the division); would even the NFC East factor overcome such mediocre teams?
• Likely protections: 49ers-Rams or Vikings-Packers (FOX) and Steelers-Ravens (CBS).
• Other possible games: Vikings-Packers and Seahawks-Bears would both be strong contenders, with Bucs-Broncos starting to sneak up. Pats-Dolphins and Colts-Lions have outside shots still, or at least did before the Dolphins lost.
• Analysis: Two years ago, against all logic, the NFL kept a tentative with a 3-8 Cowboys team, prompting this rant about how the tentative game bias can be so extreme as to render flex scheduling nearly worthless. This is a better Dallas team and a win over the lowly Browns would get them to 5-5, only a game behind the current last wild card at 6-4. As such, even with an Eagle loss to make it semi-lopsided and mediocre at best at 5-5 v. 3-7, a Dallas win would pretty much guarantee this game keeps its spot; it would hardly be the worst tentative the NFL has kept. If the Cowboys lose, the best pair of records standing against a tentative where 4-6 is the best record would probably be Seahawks-Bears at 6-4 v. 8-2 or 7-3, with Vikings-Packers possibly matching it and Bucs-Broncos having an outside shot of doing the same. Yet it’s entirely possible that of that group, only Vikings-Packers has even an outside shot of challenging the tentative; the Seahawks and Bucs aren’t enough of name teams. Will the NFL bite the bullet and keep a game with both teams below .500 solely because of its name value? Everyone hopes they don’t have to find out.

Week 14 (December 9):

• Tentative game: Detroit @ Green Bay
• Prospects: 4-5 v. 6-3. The Lions have largely escaped their mediocre start, but they are hardly the draw they were when they were the beneficiary of the Manning-injury-ruined Colts-Pats game last year.
• Likely protections: Bears-Vikings or Cardinals-Seahawks if anything, more likely the former (FOX) and Chargers-Steelers (CBS).
• Other possible games: At this point, Lions-Packers may keep its spot by default if nothing else; right now Bears-Vikings is the only game involving two teams above .500 on Sunday. The Dolphins are fading, so Dolphins-49ers might be out, and the Cardinals are fading, so Cardinals-Seahawks might be out. On the other hand, Saints-Giants is becoming a dark horse, one Giants loss off from having the same pair of records as the tentative, but could it build a substantial enough lead before the time comes?

Week 15 (December 16):

• Tentative game: San Francisco @ New England
• Prospects: 6-2-1 v. 6-3, a battle of division leaders; hard to see this one losing its spot against any competition.
• Likely protections: Broncos-Ravens (probably not), Colts-Texans, Steelers-Cowboys, or nothing (CBS) and Giants-Falcons (FOX).
• Other possible games: Broncos-Ravens, Colts-Texans, Packers-Bears (or if it’s protected, Giants-Falcons), a tentative much worse than this would probably be doomed. Steelers-Cowboys is a dark horse, and Bucs-Saints is darker still.

Week 16 (December 23):

• Tentative game: San Diego @ NY Jets
• Prospects: 4-5 v. 3-6. This game can only keep its spot if Tim Tebow is the Jets’ starting quarterback by this point.
• Likely protections: Giants-Ravens (FOX) and Bengals-Steelers if anything (CBS).
• Other possible games: Looking like the only real flex candidate, specifically with Vikings-Texans, though 49ers-Seahawks is also an option and Bengals-Steelers and Bears-Cardinals are outside possibilities.

Week 17 (December 30):

AFC Playoff Picture

DIVISION LEADERS	WILD CARD	WAITING IN THE WINGS (4-5)
WEST 46-3	56-3
4-5
EAST 36-3	66-3
4-5
NORTH 27-2
6-3
SOUTH 18-1
6-3

NFC Playoff Picture

DIVISION LEADERS	WILD CARD	WAITING IN THE WINGS (4-5)
EAST 46-4	56-3
4-5
WEST 36-2-1	66-4
6-4
NORTH 27-2	6-4
6-3	5-4
SOUTH 18-1
5-4

• Tentative game: None (NBC will show game with guaranteed playoff implications).
• Possible games: Ravens-Bengals, Bears-Lions, Packers-Vikings, Bucs-Falcons, Texans-Colts, Dolphins-Patriots, Cardinals-49ers.

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it still says late games start at 4:15 ET instead of 4:25):

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 last year as well as the first year of flexible scheduling, because NBC hosted Christmas night games those years and all the other games were moved to Saturday (and so couldn’t be flexed), but are otherwise protected after Week 5.
• In the past, three teams could appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. I don’t know how the expansion of the Thursday Night schedule affects this, if it does. No team starts the season completely tapped out at any measure; eight teams have five primetime appearances each, but only the Broncos and Bears don’t have at least one game that can be flexed out. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 18):

• Selected game: Baltimore @ Pittsburgh.

Week 12 (November 25):

• Tentative game: Green Bay @ NY Giants
• Prospects: 6-3 v. 6-3; the Packers may have started out mediocre, but now this game might have the best chance to keep its spot.
• Likely protections: Vikings-Bears or Rams-Cardinals if anything (FOX) and probably nothing (CBS) as Ravens-Chargers was their only real protection-worthy game and both teams have listed two protected games each, neither of which was this one.
• Other possible games: Normally Thanksgiving Weekend means a paucity of good games, but here we have Vikings-Bears, Ravens-Chargers, Seahawks-Dolphins, and Falcons-Bucs.
• Analysis: Vikings-Bears would be a very strong choice if it’s unprotected (a big if), but it’s become pretty lopsided at this point; the best it could do would probably be 6-4 v. 7-2, which might get flexed in against a weaker tentative, but as is wouldn’t be enough to overcome the tentative game bias against Packers-Giants at 6-3 v. 6-4. I’d still expect it to get the late afternoon feature spot. The other games all involve 4-4 teams, which isn’t remotely good enough against this competition.
• Final prediction: Green Bay Packers @ New York Giants (no change).

Week 13 (December 2):

• Tentative game: Philadelphia @ Dallas
• Prospects: Very iffy at 3-5 v. 3-5 (and the Giants starting to pull away with the division); would even the NFC East factor overcome such mediocre teams?
• Likely protections: 49ers-Rams or Vikings-Packers (FOX) and Steelers-Ravens (CBS).
• Other possible games: Vikings-Packers would be the strongest alternative if it’s unprotected (another big if), as Seahawks-Bears might be a little too lopsided. Pats-Dolphins, Colts-Lions, and Bucs-Broncos are dark horses.

Week 14 (December 9):

• Tentative game: Detroit @ Green Bay
• Prospects: 4-4 v. 6-3. The Lions have largely escaped their mediocre start, though if it weren’t for the Packers’ own mediocre start this would probably look lopsided anyway.
• Likely protections: Bears-Vikings or Cardinals-Seahawks if anything (FOX) and Chargers-Steelers (CBS).
• Other possible games: With the Cardinals following their 4-0 start with a 5-game losing streak, Bears-Vikings and Dolphins-49ers are the only two options, and the former is dependent on being unprotected. At this point Bears-Vikings is probably too lopsided to overcome the tentative game bias anyway, and Dolphins-49ers is about the same as the tentative, which won’t overcome the tentative game bias either.

Week 15 (December 16):

• Tentative game: San Francisco @ New England
• Prospects: 6-2 v. 5-3, pretty much in the same shape as Packers-Giants, replacing the Packers with the Patriots and noting that the Niners aren’t quite all the way back to being that much of a name team.
• Likely protections: Broncos-Ravens (probably not), Colts-Texans, Steelers-Cowboys, or nothing (CBS) and Giants-Falcons (FOX).
• Other possible games: Packers-Bears (or if it’s protected, Giants-Falcons) is in the best shape, though Broncos-Ravens and Colts-Texans are also competitive. I doubt any of them can beat this tentative, though.

Week 16 (December 23):

• Tentative game: San Diego @ NY Jets
• Prospects: 4-4 v. 3-5; no longer the worst of the tentative games, but maybe the most vulnerable. This game’s best chance to keep its spot may rest with the Jets getting on the Tebow bandwagon.
• Likely protections: Giants-Ravens (FOX) and Bengals-Steelers if anything (CBS).
• Other possible games: If Vikings-Packers is protected Week 13, this is probably the likeliest flex with Vikings-Texans giving NBC a shot to show the Vikings anyway, assuming it doesn’t become too lopsided, and 49ers-Seahawks a potential option if it does.

Week 17 (December 30):

• Playoff positioning watch begins next week because I’m not setting up that on top of everything else in my life.

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it still says late games start at 4:15 ET instead of 4:25):

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 last year as well as the first year of flexible scheduling, because NBC hosted Christmas night games those years and all the other games were moved to Saturday (and so couldn’t be flexed), but are otherwise protected after Week 5.
• In the past, three teams could appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. I don’t know how the expansion of the Thursday Night schedule affects this, if it does. No team starts the season completely tapped out at any measure; eight teams have five primetime appearances each, but only the Broncos and Bears don’t have at least one game that can be flexed out. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 18):

• Tentative game: Baltimore @ Pittsburgh
• Prospects: 5-2 v. 4-3 and one of the hottest rivalries in the NFL. Despite the Steelers’ mediocre start, it’s hard to see this one losing its spot.
• Likely protections: Cardinals-Falcons (FOX) and Chargers-Broncos (CBS).
• Other possible games: Colts-Patriots and Packers-Lions are really the only half-good games.
• Analysis: At 5-3 v. 4-3, Colts-Patriots is the best of the alternatives and it’s roughly equivalent to Ravens-Steelers. The best it can do is 5-3 v. 5-3 going up against 5-3 v. 4-4, and the best Packers-Lions can do is similarly one win better on one side, 6-3 v. 4-4. That’s not beating the tentative game bias when it’s a rivalry like this (and even if Cardinals-Falcons wasn’t protected for some reason, it’s too lopsided to matter now). Expect Colts-Pats to settle for the CBS feature game spot.
• Final prediction: Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (no change).

Week 12 (November 25):

• Tentative game: Green Bay @ NY Giants
• Prospects: 5-3 v. 6-2; the Packers may have started out mediocre, but now this game might have the best chance to keep its spot.
• Likely protections: Vikings-Bears or Rams-Cardinals if anything (FOX) and probably nothing (CBS) as Ravens-Chargers was their only real protection-worthy game and both teams have listed two protected games each, neither of which was this one.
• Other possible games: Normally Thanksgiving Weekend means a paucity of good games, but Vikings-Bears would be a very strong choice if it’s unprotected (a big if), enough to potentially be flexed in against weaker competition; as is it’ll probably get the late-afternoon feature spot. There are other options as well, but Seahawks-Dolphins is the only one not involving a 3-4 team (and the Seahawks are 4-4) and Bills-Colts is the least lopsided of the ones that do (followed by Ravens-Chargers and Falcons-Bucs).

Week 13 (December 2):

• Tentative game: Philadelphia @ Dallas
• Prospects: Very iffy at 3-4 v. 3-4 (and the Giants starting to pull away with the division), but never count out an NFC East showdown.
• Likely protections: 49ers-Rams or Vikings-Packers (FOX) and Steelers-Ravens (CBS).
• Other possible games: Vikings-Packers would be the strongest alternative if it’s unprotected (another big if), as Seahawks-Bears might be a little too lopsided; Pats-Dolphins is also an option, while Colts-Lions and Bucs-Broncos are dark horses.

Week 14 (December 9):

• Tentative game: Detroit @ Green Bay
• Prospects: 3-4 v. 5-3. The Lions have improved to the point that if this game weren’t already a tentative I’d be listing it as a “dark horse”. But the Packers are looking like the team that spent most of last year unbeaten, which could end up making it lopsided anyway.
• Likely protections: Bears-Vikings or Cardinals-Seahawks if anything (FOX) and Chargers-Steelers (CBS).
• Other possible games: Bears-Vikings would be the favorite if it wasn’t protected; otherwise Dolphins-49ers, despite being a bit lopsided, has the edge over a battle of 4-4 teams in Cardinals-Seahawks, though neither game is likely to overcome the tentative game bias.

Week 15 (December 16):

• Tentative game: San Francisco @ New England
• Prospects: 6-2 v. 5-3, pretty much in the same shape as Packers-Giants, replacing the Packers with the Patriots and noting that the Niners aren’t quite all the way back to being that much of a name team.
• Likely protections: Broncos-Ravens (probably not), Colts-Texans, Steelers-Cowboys, or nothing (CBS) and Giants-Falcons (FOX).
• Other possible games: Packers-Bears (or if it’s protected, Giants-Falcons) is in the best shape, though Broncos-Ravens and Colts-Texans are also competitive. Steelers-Broncos, Seahawks-Bills, and Lions-Cardinals are dark horses.

Week 16 (December 23):

• Tentative game: San Diego @ NY Jets
• Prospects: 3-4 v. 3-5; possibly the worst of the tentative games. Even if the Jets are driving the Tebow bandwagon, that could just make it lopsided, especially given the alternatives.
• Likely protections: Giants-Ravens (FOX) and Bengals-Steelers if anything (CBS).
• Other possible games: If the Vikings are protected in Weeks 13 and 14, this is probably the likeliest flex with Vikings-Texans giving NBC a shot to show the Vikings anyway. Bears-Cardinals and 49ers-Seahawks could become lopsided, while Bills-Dolphins is a dark horse.

Week 17 (December 30):

• Playoff positioning watch begins Week 9.