NFL

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with last season in mind):

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET. (Note: Last year, NBC listed a tentative game for Week 17; they are not doing so this year.)
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night. (Note: Again, excluding Week 17.)
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and could not protect any games Week 17 last year. Unless I find out otherwise, I’m assuming that’s still the case this year, especially with no tentative game listed Week 17, and that protections were scheduled after Week 4.
• Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 4 post.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 16):

• Selected game: Dallas @ Washington.

Week 12 (November 23):

• Selected game: Indianapolis @ San Diego.

Week 13 (November 30):

• Selected game: Chicago @ Minnesota.

Week 14 (December 7):

• Selected game: Washington @ Baltimore.

Week 15 (December 14):

• Selected game: NY Giants @ Dallas.

Week 16 (December 21):

• Tentative game: San Diego @ Tampa Bay
• Prospects: 4-8 @ 9-3? Good lord is this game lopsided.
• Likely protections: Panthers-Giants or Eagles-Redskins (FOX) and Steelers-Titans (CBS).
• “That’s my story and I’m sticking to it”‘s protections: Eagles-Redskins (FOX) and Steelers-Titans (CBS)
• Other possible games: Cardinals-Patriots is still strong and Bills-Broncos and Falcons-Vikings are still at least close. If TMS&ISTI is right all this is moot because the Panthers and Giants would have to collapse to give up the spot (the Panthers did lose this week), but if it was Panthers-Giants protected Eagles-Redskins would be in it as well. Even if Panthers-Giants had been protected, Cardinals-Patriots is a strong enough game it probably would have gotten the spot anyway.
• Analysis: If Panthers-Giants isn’t protected I might as well pick it now. If it is, there are four games that are very close, and Falcons-Vikings is probably the leader in the clubhouse at 8-4 v. 7-5. Cardinals-Patriots is next at 7-5 @ 7-5, then Eagles-Redskins at 6-5-1 @ 7-5, then Bills-Broncos at 6-6 @ 7-5. For any of these games to have a shot, Panthers-Giants must be protected and the Falcons, at the very least, must lose. A Falcons loss, a Vikings win, and wins by the Cardinals and Patriots would put those two games on even footing; Bills-Broncos needs a perfect scenario (Falcons and Vikings losses, Bills and Broncos wins), but Eagles-Redskins might get close enough to pull a pretty good case that the Eagles should have won “The Tie” and the accounting should be even.

Week 17 (December 28 Playoff Positioning Watch):

• Note that not only is there no longer an NBC tentative game, there’s no NFL Network game. Apparently the league learned their lesson from last year’s Patriots-Giants debacle.
• AFC East: Anyone’s game. All four teams within two games of one another, with the Jets leading, the Pats and Dolphins a game back, and the Bills a game behind that. The Pats and Bills play each other, as do the Dolphins and Jets.
• AFC North: The Steelers and Ravens are the only two teams still in it; Steelers have a one-game edge. The Steelers play the Browns while the Ravens play the Jags.
• AFC South: The Titans are running away with it, with the Colts the only other team with a shot. No matter the standings, if the Titans remain undefeated Titans-Colts could be a lock.
• AFC West: Chiefs out, Raiders hanging on by a tiebreaker. Broncos and Chargers the main contenders, and play each other. Hmm. However, the gap is three games, advantage Broncos, and the Raiders are only a game behind the Chargers.
• AFC Wild Card: The Ravens and Colts would get the nod if the season ended today. The Dolphins and Patriots are a game back, and the Bills are waiting in the wings. Both East games and Titans-Colts are the main AFC contenders. Raiders, Chiefs, Bengals out, Chargers, Jags, Browns need a tiebreaker.
• NFC East: The Giants have a three-game lead over the Cowboys, with the Redskins hanging on by a tiebreaker and the Eagles out by half a game. The Giants play the Vikings while the Cowboys face the Eagles.
• NFC North: Vikings lead, Bears a game back, Packers two, Lions out. The Bears play the Texans and the Packers play the Lions, but the Vikings play the Giants.
• NFC South: Every team still in it, with the Panthers and Bucs leading, the Falcons a game back, and the Saints three back. The Panthers play the Saints, but Tampa Bay plays the Raiders and the Falcons play the Rams.
• NFC West: The Cardinals are running away with it and the 49ers are the only other team with a shot. Cardinals play the Seahawks. Hardly must-see TV.
• NFC Wild Card: The Panthers-Bucs loser and either the Cowboys or Falcons would get the nod if the season ended today. Redskins a game back, Eagles 1.5 back, Bears and Saints waiting in the wings. Packers three back, 49ers need a tiebreak. Giants-Vikings, Cowboys-Eagles, and Panthers-Saints are strong games, but that may be it in the NFC and the last one could be fading. Those could be competitive games for the NBC pick, though.

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with last season in mind):

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET. (Note: Last year, NBC listed a tentative game for Week 17; they are not doing so this year.)
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night. (Note: Again, excluding Week 17.)
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and could not protect any games Week 17 last year. Unless I find out otherwise, I’m assuming that’s still the case this year, especially with no tentative game listed Week 17, and that protections were scheduled after Week 4.
• Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 4 post.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 16):

• Selected game: Dallas @ Washington.

Week 12 (November 23):

• Selected game: Indianapolis @ San Diego.

Week 13 (November 30):

• Selected game: Chicago @ Minnesota.

Week 14 (December 7):

• Selected game: Washington @ Baltimore.

Week 15 (December 14):

• Tentative game: NY Giants @ Dallas
• Prospects: This is why I had Fox protect Bears-Packers Week 11 (as did TMS&ISTI): so they could leave this week protection-free and maximize their chances of getting a marquee NFC East matchup back. And with the Cowboys energized by the return of Tony Romo, this game will be hard to beat on its own merits. Despite what I said last week, 10-1 v. 7-4 is pretty good.
• Likely protections: Steelers-Ravens, Broncos-Panthers, Bills-Jets, or nothing (CBS).
• “That’s my story and I’m sticking to it”‘s protections: None.
• Other possible games: Bucs-Falcons looks great, but they’re running in a dead heat with Steelers-Ravens if that game isn’t protected. Bills-Jets and Broncos-Panthers both trail those two, and may be widening a bit too close for comfort. Vikings-Cardinals is still a dark horse, but realistically it’s out.
• Analysis: Giants-Cowboys is lopsided enough that a Cowboys loss can still open things up for a mathematically inferior game, but it has two major advantages: name value and being the tentative game. Bucs-Falcons and Steelers-Ravens are the only major threats to unseat it. Both are 3-loss teams v. 4-loss teams; if the Cowboys lose, the Giants win, and both teams in either matchup win, they would actually be looking at the same average number of losses. The Cowboys loss would be at home to Seattle, and there may be a feeling that the ‘Boys would logically have trouble on the road at Pittsburgh next week if that were to happen. And the Steelers are a name team while the Falcons have the draw of Matt Ryan. And if Bills-Jets came close enough NBC might be tempted at the prospect of Brett Favre in primetime. But in a season this flex-averse? With two name teams from football’s best division?
• Final prediction: New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys (no change).

Week 16 (December 21):

• Tentative game: San Diego @ Tampa Bay
• Prospects: 4-7 @ 8-3? Good lord is this game lopsided.
• Likely protections: Panthers-Giants or Eagles-Redskins (FOX) and Steelers-Titans (CBS).
• “That’s my story and I’m sticking to it”‘s protections: Eagles-Redskins (FOX) and Steelers-Titans (CBS)
• Other possible games: Cardinals-Patriots is still strong and Bills-Broncos is still nominally in it, while Falcons-Vikings stands in between. If TMS&ISTI is right all this is moot because the Panthers and Giants would have to collapse to give up the spot (the Panthers did lose this week), but if it was Panthers-Giants protected Eagles-Redskins would be about on par with Falcons-Vikings. Even if Panthers-Giants had been protected, Cardinals-Patriots is a strong enough game it probably would have gotten the spot anyway.

Week 17 (December 28 Playoff Positioning Watch):

• Note that not only is there no longer an NBC tentative game, there’s no NFL Network game. Apparently the league learned their lesson from last year’s Patriots-Giants debacle.
• AFC East: Anyone’s game. All four teams within two games of one another, with the Jets leading, the Pats a game back, and the other two a game behind that. The Pats and Bills play each other, as do the Dolphins and Jets.
• AFC North: The Steelers and Ravens are running away with it, with the Steelers holding the one-game edge and the Bengals out. The Steelers play the Browns while the Ravens play the Jags.
• AFC South: The Titans are running away with it, with the Colts the only other team with a shot. No matter the standings, if the Titans remain undefeated Titans-Colts could be a lock.
• AFC West: Every team is theoretically in it, with the Chiefs hanging on by a tiebreaker. Broncos and Chargers the main contenders, and play each other. Hmm. However, the gap is two games, advantage Broncos, and the Raiders (who play the Bucs) are creeping up.
• AFC Wild Card: Any two of the Patriots, Ravens, and Colts would get the nod if the season ended today. The Dolphins and Bills are a game back, with the Browns, Jags, and Chargers all losing this week. Their respective games are in trouble, but both East games and Titans-Colts are still strong. Chiefs out, Bengals hanging on by half a game.
• NFC East: The Giants have a three-game lead over the Redskins and Cowboys. The Giants play the Vikings but the Redskins play the 49ers and the Cowboys face the Eagles.
• NFC North: Bears and Vikings tied, Pack a game back, Lions out. The Bears play the Texans and the Packers play the Lions, but the Vikings play the Giants.
• NFC South: Every team within two games, with the Panthers and Bucs leading, the Falcons a game back, and the Saints waiting in the wings. The Panthers play the Saints, but Tampa Bay plays the Raiders and the Falcons play the Rams.
• NFC West: The Cardinals are running away with it and the Seahawks and Rams need tiebreakers, which the Rams won’t get (too many division losses already). Cardinals play the Seahawks. Hardly must-see TV.
• NFC Wild Card: The Panthers-Bucs loser and either the Redskins, Cowboys, or Falcons would get the nod if the season ended today. Bears-Vikings loser a game back, Eagles 1.5 back, Packers waiting in the wings. Seahawks, Rams, Lions out, 49ers need a tiebreak. Giants-Vikings, Cowboys-Eagles, and Panthers-Saints are strong games, but that may be it in the NFC. Those could be competitive games for the NBC pick, though.

Week 14 (December 7):

• Tentative game: New England @ Seattle
• Prospects: The Seahawks are just too terrible for this game to keep its spot. 7-4 v. 2-9? Please.
• Likely protections: Cowboys-Steelers (FOX) and if anything, Jags-Bears (CBS). Accurate according to this.
• Other possible games mentioned on Wednesday’s Watch and their records: Redskins (7-4)-Ravens (7-4), Eagles (5-5-1)-Giants (10-1), Falcons (7-4)-Saints (5-5), Dolphins (6-5)-Bills (6-5), Titans (10-1)-Browns (4-7).
• Impact of Monday Night Football: Saints can move up or down, but it probably doesn’t matter.
• Analysis: I said on Wednesday that this was Redskins-Ravens’ to lose, and both teams won. If NBC wanted to swerve us it would probably take a Saints victory on Monday night to produce a game only a half-game worse, but even then it’s unlikely. If it’s playoff battles NBC wants, the Redskins are in the thick of a wild card battle and the Ravens have a shot at the AFC North, yet are also far from secure for the wild card. If NBC wants to hold on to the possibility of flexing in either team later, the only real flexible game either team has the rest of the way, including Week 17, is next week when Giants-Cowboys will likely keep its spot, and neither team is anywhere near the limit anyway. If NBC keeps a godawful Patriots-Seahawks matchup (“hey, we get to see Matt Cassel!”) with a game like Redskins-Ravens on the table (and I’m a Seattlite), I might just give up. The fact I’m even considering the possibility and building such an ironclad case for flexing should tell you a lot. (Go on. The flex button won’t hurt you.)
• Final prediction: Washington Redskins @ Baltimore Ravens.

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with last season in mind):

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET. (Note: Last year, NBC listed a tentative game for Week 17; they are not doing so this year.)
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night. (Note: Again, excluding Week 17.)
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and could not protect any games Week 17 last year. Unless I find out otherwise, I’m assuming that’s still the case this year, especially with no tentative game listed Week 17, and that protections were scheduled after Week 4.
• Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 4 post.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 16):

• Selected game: Dallas @ Washington.

Week 12 (November 23):

• Selected game: Indianapolis @ San Diego.

Week 13 (November 30):

• Selected game: Chicago @ Minnesota.

Week 14 (December 7):

• Tentative game: New England @ Seattle
• Prospects: The Seahawks are just too terrible for this game to keep its spot. 6-4 v. 2-8? Please.
• On the protected games front, we have chaos. A commenter on this post gave a complete list of protections but it was “unofficial” and was “heading into the season” when every source I’ve read, even those not giving a specific week, has said CBS and Fox protect their games in “October”, obviously when the season is already underway. So I’m keeping my own protection speculation while adding the commenter’s thoughts.
• Likely protections: Cowboys-Steelers (FOX) and if anything, Jags-Bears (CBS).
• “That’s my story and I’m sticking to it”‘s protections: Cowboys-Steelers (FOX) and Jags-Bears (CBS).
• Other possible games: Forget what I said about looking at Cowboys-Steelers’ prospects in the face of Redskins-Ravens being protected, as the AA post in question itself would seem to indicate the Cowboys will stay on Fox. At 6-4 v. 6-4, Redskins-Ravens is the bar by which all other games are judged this week. Eagles-Giants would have looked lopsided even with an Eagles win, but if that didn’t matter even the tie gives it a higher average record. Jags-Bears is out, but Falcons-Saints is very much alive. Throw Dolphins-Bills in the conversation as well as a dark horse. I’d been ignoring it in weeks past and AA does in its post, but it has the exact same pair of records as Falcons-Saints. Titans-Browns could be a masochistic dark horse if the Titans win this week.
• Analysis: This is Redskins-Ravens’ to lose. But if even one team loses – very possible with the Ravens playing the Eagles this week – it opens the door for Falcons-Saints or Dolphins-Bills. The latter is not my impression of a marquee game, improved teams or no, and it would lose a tiebreaker to either of the other two. Note that the Saints don’t play until Monday night. Those three are the major contenders but there are still two potential curveballs as well. The Eagles absolutely positively have to beat the Ravens for their game’s slim chances to remain alive, though, as must the Titans beat the Jets.

Week 15 (December 14):

• Tentative game: NY Giants @ Dallas
• Prospects: This is why I had Fox protect Bears-Packers Week 11 (as did TMS&ISTI): so they could leave this week protection-free and maximize their chances of getting a marquee NFC East matchup back. And this game might be alive again. A lot depends on what the Cowboys do with Tony Romo back, and that’s off to a good start.
• Likely protections: Steelers-Ravens, Broncos-Panthers, Bills-Jets, or nothing (CBS).
• “That’s my story and I’m sticking to it”‘s protections: None.
• Other possible games: Bucs-Falcons looks great, but they’re running in a dead heat with Steelers-Ravens if that game isn’t protected. Bills-Jets and Broncos-Panthers both trail those two, and the former may be becoming lopsided. Vikings-Cardinals may be closer than Bills-Jets and Broncos-Panthers anyway. Titans-Texans could be a masochistic dark horse if the Titans keep winning. If the pick was made today, Giants-Cowboys’ main advantage may well be its name value, because it’s still a little lopsided.

Week 16 (December 21):

• Tentative game: San Diego @ Tampa Bay
• Prospects: AA doesn’t see this changing. What? It’s 4-6 @ 7-3! That’s after a Chargers loss, so they’re going the wrong way! Don’t JUST look at Steelers-Titans being protected!
• Likely protections: Panthers-Giants or Eagles-Redskins (FOX) and Steelers-Titans (CBS).
• “That’s my story and I’m sticking to it”‘s protections: Eagles-Redskins (FOX) and Steelers-Titans (CBS)
• Other possible games: Cardinals-Patriots is still strong and Bills-Broncos may well be out, while Falcons-Vikings faltered this week. If TMS&ISTI is right all this is moot because the Panthers and Giants would have to collapse to give up the spot, but if it was Panthers-Giants protected Eagles-Redskins probably wouldn’t have a chance.

Week 17 (December 28 Playoff Positioning Watch):

• Note that not only is there no longer an NBC tentative game, there’s no NFL Network game. Apparently the league learned their lesson from last year’s Patriots-Giants debacle.
• AFC East: Anyone’s game. All four teams within two games of one another, with the Bills trailing the field and the Jets leading. The Pats and Bills play each other, as do the Dolphins and Jets.
• AFC North: Every team is theoretically in it, but the Bengals are hanging by half a game. The Steelers and Ravens are running away with it, with the Steelers holding the one-game edge. The Steelers play the Browns while the Ravens play the Jags.
• AFC South: The Titans are running away with it. No matter the standings, if the Titans remain undefeated Titans-Colts could be a lock. The Texans are out; the Jags are out by way of having already lost to the Titans both times.
• AFC West: Every team is theoretically in it. Broncos and Chargers the main contenders, and play each other. Hmm. However, the gap is two games, advantage Broncos.
• AFC Wild Card: Any two of the Dolphins, Patriots, Ravens, and Colts would get the nod if the season ended today. The Bills are a game back, with the Browns, Jags, and Chargers waiting in the wings, adding luster to both East games, Titans-Colts, Browns-Steelers, Jags-Ravens, and Broncos-Chargers. Every team is mathematically in it.
• NFC East: Every team within 3.5 games, but the Giants have a three-game lead over everyone, another half-game back to the Eagles. The Giants play the Vikings but the Redskins play the 49ers.
• NFC North: Bears-Vikings-Packers three-way tie. The Bears play the Texans and the Packers play the Lions, but the Vikings play the Giants. The Lions are mathematically still in it.
• NFC South: Every team within three games, with the Panthers leading and the Bucs one game behind, the Falcons two, the Saints three. The Panthers play the Saints, but Tampa Bay plays the Raiders and the Falcons play the Rams.
• NFC West: Every team mathematically still in it but the Cardinals are running away with it. They play the Seahawks. Hardly must-see TV.
• NFC Wild Card: The Bucs and either the Redskins, Cowboys, or Falcons would get the nod if the season ended today. Eagles a half-game back; the NFC North losers and Saints a full game back; no one exactly two games back. Despite all but four teams being within a game of the playoffs, the only real interesting NFC games are Giants-Vikings, Cowboys-Eagles, and Panthers-Saints. Those could be competitive games for the NBC pick, especially the first two, but the AFC holds the overall edge right now. The NFL may have done too much to ensure the best game for NBC, creating an overabundance of choices.

Speaking of SNF… Week 13 (November 30):

• Tentative game: Chicago @ Minnesota
• Prospects: Two 5-5 teams in a 3-way tie for the lead in the NFC North. Might be a possibility to keep its spot. But both teams losing is REALLY bad news, especially to fal back to .500.
• Likely protections: Giants-Redskins (Fox) and either Steelers (7-3)-Patriots (6-4) or Broncos (6-4)-Jets (7-3) (CBS).
• Other possible games mentioned on Wednesday’s Watch and their records: Panthers (8-2)-Packers (5-5), Falcons (6-4)-Chargers (4-6), Saints (5-5)-Bucs (7-3)
• Impact of Monday Night Football: None.
• Analysis: It’s Thanksgiving Weekend, so more teams like the Cowboys and Titans aren’t available. Really mediocre weekend. If I had to choose I would say the game CBS didn’t protect is probably the favorite if a game is going to be swapped out, but other than the appeal of the Steelers, Patriots, or Brett Favre, there’s no compelling reason to make a switch. I make this prediction with the caveat that I would not be surprised to see the unprotected game selected.
• Final prediction: Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings (no change).

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with last season in mind):

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET. (Note: Last year, NBC listed a tentative game for Week 17; they are not doing so this year.)
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night. (Note: Again, excluding Week 17.)
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and could not protect any games Week 17 last year. Unless I find out otherwise, I’m assuming that’s still the case this year, especially with no tentative game listed Week 17, and that protections were scheduled after Week 4.
• Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 4 post.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 16):

• Selected game: Dallas @ Washington.

Week 12 (November 23):

• Selected game: Indianapolis @ San Diego. Really? 5-4 @ 4-5 is better than 8-1 @ 6-3 or 7-2 @ 6-3? Even if I was wrong about Fox’s protection, both of those games are Fox games so if one was protected, the other was available – and even Eagles-Ravens would have been a better game, at 5-4 @ 6-3! I always figured NBC and the NFL would hold on to the tentative game if circumstances warranted, but either that “tentative bias” is way more powerful than I had suspected, or the NFL looked at the Colts’ winning streak against good teams and the fact that despite a below-.500 record, the Chargers are still only a game back in the AFC West, and decided the game was still worth keeping with all the (diluted) “name” value. Or alternately, NBC and the NFL forgot how to flex a game out. (Or one side wanted to wait until after MNF and the other side thought that wasn’t possible. Or either side was concerned about maxing out Eagles and Giants primetime appearances and Panthers-Falcons was protected.)

Week 13 (November 30):

• Tentative game: Chicago @ Minnesota
• Prospects: Two 5-4 teams tied for the lead in the NFC North. Might be a possibility to keep its spot. The bad news is the Bears didn’t get the job done against the Titans; the good news is they kept it within a score and Kyle Orton expects to be back THIS week.
• Likely protections: Giants-Redskins (Fox) and either Steelers-Patriots or Broncos-Jets (CBS).
• Other possible games: It’s Thanksgiving Weekend, so more teams like the Cowboys and Titans aren’t available. Panthers-Packers is probably out because it’s lopsided and if you want a game with NFC North teams, you keep the all-division battle in the tentative game. On the off chance Steelers-Patriots isn’t protected it certainly looks good, but after this week I’m not sure if being a game better on both sides is enough. Broncos-Jets would be even more vulnerable. Forget about Falcons-Chargers, but Saints-Bucs is really in the same boat.
• Prediction: What a mediocre weekend. If the Bears and Vikings both win they WILL keep their spot. If they both lose, the Steelers and Patriots both win, and their game is unprotected, it’s a fairly good bet to nab the star. The Jets, Chargers, and Saints probably need to win for their respective games to have anything resembling a shot.

Week 14 (December 7):

• Tentative game: New England @ Seattle
• Prospects: The Seahawks are just too terrible for this game to keep its spot.
• Likely protections: Cowboys-Steelers (FOX) and if anything, Jags-Bears (CBS).
• Other possible games: Redskins-Ravens suddenly looks teriffic (though I will consider the prospects of Cowboys-Steelers if Redskins-Ravens had been protected next week), and Eagles-Giants is looking lopsided. Jags-Bears really needs a rally and a Redskins/Ravens collapse, and Falcons-Saints also needs improvement. Titans-Browns could be a masochistic dark horse if the Titans keep winning.

Week 15 (December 14):

• Tentative game: NY Giants @ Dallas
• Prospects: This is why I had Fox protect Bears-Packers Week 11: so they could leave this week protection-free and maximize their chances of getting a marquee NFC East matchup back. And this game might be alive again. A lot depends on what the Cowboys do with Tony Romo back.
• Likely protections: Steelers-Ravens, Broncos-Panthers, Bills-Jets, or nothing (CBS).
• Other possible games: Bucs-Falcons looks great, but they’re running in a dead heat with Steelers-Ravens if that game isn’t protected. Bills-Jets and Broncos-Panthers both trail those two. Vikings-Cardinals looks like a serious contender. Titans-Texans could be a masochistic dark horse if the Titans keep winning.

Week 16 (December 21):

• Tentative game: San Diego @ Tampa Bay
• Prospects: It’s 4-5 @ 6-3. Way too lopsided unless the Chargers can keep recovering.
• Likely protections: Panthers-Giants or Eagles-Redskins (FOX) and Steelers-Titans (CBS).
• Other possible games: Cardinals-Patriots is still strong and Bills-Broncos remains in trouble, but Falcons-Vikings is gaining. If Fox protected Eagles-Redskins all this is moot because the Panthers and Giants would have to collapse to give up the spot, but if it was Panthers-Giants protected the main advantage Eagles-Redskins would have is being a divisional matchup.

Week 17 (December 28 Playoff Positioning Watch):

• Note that not only is there no longer an NBC tentative game, there’s no NFL Network game. Apparently the league learned their lesson from last year’s Patriots-Giants debacle.
• AFC East: Anyone’s game. All four teams within a game of one another. The Pats and Bills play each other, as do the Dolphins and Jets.
• AFC North: Every team is theoretically in it. The Steelers and Ravens are running away with it but are neck-in-neck. The Steelers play the Browns while the Ravens play the Jags.
• AFC South: The Titans are running away with it. No matter the standings, if the Titans remain undefeated Titans-Colts could be a lock. The Texans are mathematically still in it.
• AFC West: Every team is theoretically in it. Broncos and Chargers the main contenders, and play each other. Hmm.
• AFC Wild Card: The losers of the AFC East and North would get the nod if the season ended today. The Dolphins, Bills, and Colts would be a game back, with the Jags and Chargers waiting in the wings, adding luster to both East games, Titans-Colts, Jags-Ravens, and Broncos-Chargers. The AFC has a very attractive line-up.
• NFC East: Every team within three games. Giants and Redskins look strongest. The Giants play the Vikings but the Redskins play the 49ers. The Cowboys and Eagles play each other.
• NFC North: Bears and Vikings lead, Packers a game back. The Bears play the Texans and the Packers play the Lions, but the Vikings play the Giants. The Lions are mathematically still in it.
• NFC South: Every team within three games, with the Panthers leading and the Bucs and Falcons a game behind. The Panthers play the Saints, but Tampa Bay plays the Raiders and the Falcons play the Rams.
• NFC West: Every team mathematically still in it but the Cardinals are running away with it. They play the Seahawks. Hardly must-see TV.
• NFC Wild Card: Any two of the Redskins, Bucs or Falcons would get the nod if the season ended today. Cowboys, Eagles, Bears, and Vikings a game back; Packers and Saints waiting in the wings. Despite all but four teams being within a game of the playoffs, the only real interesting NFC games are Giants-Vikings, Cowboys-Eagles, and Panthers-Saints (and the Saints’ playoff window is narrow to say the least). Those could be competitive games for the NBC pick, especially the first two, but the AFC holds the overall edge right now. The NFL may have done too much to ensure the best game for NBC, creating an overabundance of choices.