NFL

Week 12 (November 23):

• Tentative game: Indianapolis @ San Diego
• Prospects: A 5-4 team against a 4-5 team that just broke a losing streak. With the Colts potentially on the mend, this game might not be completely out of it.
• Likely protections: Eagles-Ravens (Fox) and Jets-Titans (CBS).
• Other possible games mentioned on Wednesday’s Watch and their records: Panthers (7-2)-Falcons (6-3), Giants (8-1)-Cardinals (5-3), Patriots (6-3)-Dolphins (5-4)
• Impact of Monday Night Football: I wouldn’t be surprised if NBC and the NFL are waiting on this game… a Cardinals loss sinks them to four losses and makes the Giants game look potentially lopsided, giving the edge to the Panthers-Falcons divisional matchup, while a win keeps the larger average record alive.
• Analysis: A Cardinals win on Monday night would really help their chances, but the late date of that game means the other games are more important. The Giants beating the Eagles on Sunday night might actualy give NBC and the league pause as the Cardinals game could start looking slightly lopsided, but both teams losing wouldn’t have saved it anyway. However, the game’s in-division importance for the Cardinals should offset that. I had said if the Giants won Giants-Cardinals is probably in, and the Panthers and Falcons would both need to win to force NBC and the NFL to at least consider waiting for Monday Night, but that’s exactly what the Panthers and Falcons did. If NBC was forced to choose before Monday Night, they would probably pick Giants-Cardinals just because the Giants are more recognizible than any of the other three nobodies. Still, Panthers-Falcons is a divisional rivalry…
• Final prediction: New York Giants @ Arizona Cardinals (if the Cardinals win tonight) OR Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons (if the 49ers win tonight). (And if you’re not watching the game, the latter is very plausible.)

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with last season in mind):

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET. (Note: Last year, NBC listed a tentative game for Week 17; they are not doing so this year.)
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night. (Note: Again, excluding Week 17.)
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and could not protect any games Week 17 last year. Unless I find out otherwise, I’m assuming that’s still the case this year, especially with no tentative game listed Week 17, and that protections were scheduled after Week 4.
• Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 4 post.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 16):

• Selected game: Dallas @ Washington.

Week 12 (November 23):

• Tentative game: Indianapolis @ San Diego
• Prospects: A .500 team against a 3-5 team on a losing streak. NBC probably didn’t anticipate the decision to flex this game out looking this obvious.
• Likely protections: Eagles-Ravens (Fox) and Jets-Titans (CBS).
• Other possible games: Panthers-Falcons is certainly looking better than Colts-Chargers, and the Falcons have shot up to 9th in NBCSports.com’s Power Rankings. Giants-Cardinals, however, may be stronger overall. Patriots-Dolphins still could be considered in it, but it basically needs the above four teams to all lose.
• Prediction: A Cardinals win on Monday night would really help their chances, but the late date of that game means the other games are more important. The Giants beating the Eagles on Sunday night might actualy give NBC and the league pause as the Cardinals game could start looking slightly lopsided. However, the game’s in-division importance for the Cardinals should offset that. That means the Panthers and the Falcons need to win as well. Basically, if the Giants win Giants-Cardinals is probably in, and the Panthers and Falcons would both need to win to force NBC and the NFL to at least consider waiting for Monday Night. If the Giants lose, and the Panthers and Falcons both win, the Panthers and Falcons take it for sure, and if all three lose it’s Giants-Cardinals, but if the Giants lose and the other two split the pick could depend on a number of factors. If the split is the Falcons winning and the Panthers losing, though, I like Panthers-Falcons’ chances.

Week 13 (November 30):

• Tentative game: Chicago @ Minnesota
• Prospects: 5-3 v. 4-4, Chicago is in the top 10 in NBCSports.com’s latest power rankings, and a big game with big NFC North implications. Could start looking like a possibility to keep its spot, but if the Bears look like they will lose Kyle Orton for a while and look flat against the Titans and Packers it becomes a flex-out risk again.
• Likely protections: Giants-Redskins (Fox) and either Steelers-Patriots or Broncos-Jets (CBS).
• Other possible games: It’s Thanksgiving Weekend, so more teams like the Cowboys and Titans aren’t available. Panthers-Packers might be in trouble. On the off chance Steelers-Patriots isn’t protected it certainly looks good, but could be vulnerable. If it is, Broncos-Jets is no longer much of a draw. Falcons-Chargers is probably out. Saints-Bucs has probably passed it.

Week 14 (December 7):

• Tentative game: New England @ Seattle
• Prospects: The Seahawks are just too terrible for this game to keep its spot.
• Likely protections: Cowboys-Steelers (FOX) and if anything, Jags-Bears (CBS).
• Other possible games: Redskins-Ravens has a chance to still be alive, so the Eagles and Giants shouldn’t change those tickets yet. Jags-Bears is a very dark horse if it’s unprotected, but Falcons-Saints is probably stronger.

Week 15 (December 14):

• Tentative game: NY Giants @ Dallas
• Prospects: This is why I had Fox protect Bears-Packers Week 11: so they could leave this week protection-free and maximize their chances of getting a marquee NFC East matchup back. And this game might be alive again. A lot depends on what the Cowboys do with Tony Romo back.
• Likely protections: Steelers-Ravens, Broncos-Panthers, Bills-Jets, or nothing (CBS).
• Other possible games: Packers-Jaguars might be out, but Bucs-Falcons is improving. Steelers-Ravens is the best of the potentially protected games, while Broncos-Panthers may have dodged a huge bullet Thursday night. If things break right, Vikings-Cardinals is a dark horse.

Week 16 (December 21):

• Tentative game: San Diego @ Tampa Bay
• Prospects: It’s 3-5 @ 6-3, and the Chargers are fading fast. Way too lopsided.
• Likely protections: Panthers-Giants or Eagles-Redskins (FOX) and Steelers-Titans (CBS).
• Other possible games: Cardinals-Patriots is still strong, but Falcons-Vikings and Bills-Broncos are both fading (although nothing bad happened to the former this week), so the only thing stopping Cardinals-Pats could be the game Fox didn’t protect. And if the unprotected game is Eagles-Redskins, Cardinals-Pats is still very much alive.

Week 17 (December 28):

• Playoff positioning watch begins next week, like last year, because of all my playing catch-up. But NEXT year, I swear, I will make good on my original promises! 😀

Week 11 (November 16):

• Tentative game: Dallas @ Washington
• Prospects: The Cowboys (5-4) lost to the Giants, making the game less appealing, but will get Tony Romo back for Sunday night after a Week 10 bye, so NBC would get his return. A 5-4 team should greatly concern NBC, but it’s the Cowboys, “America’s Team”. The Redskins are 6-2 and also entering the bye.
• Likely protections: Ravens (5-3)-Giants (7-1), Titans (8-0)-Jaguars (3-5), or nothing (CBS) and Bears-Packers (FOX)
• Other possible games mentioned on Wednesday’s Watch and their records: Chargers (3-5)-Steelers (5-2), Broncos (4-4)-Falcons (5-3)
• Impact of Monday Night Football: Immense. A Washington win might appear to help Cowboys-Redskins keep its spot, and a Steelers win might help Chargers-Steelers, but in fact both games might be more positively affected by losses, to keep from getting lopsided.
• Analysis: Cowboys-Redskins can never be counted out entirely, and the only game that appears to have much of a chance to challenge at the moment is Ravens-Giants. It almost looks like a no-brainer, especially if the Redskins lose tonight: both teams have one more loss than their equivalents in Ravens-Giants. But you have to consider the marquee name value of the Cowboys and especially the Cowboys-Redskins rivalry, and also factor in the return of Tony Romo. If Ravens-Giants is protected, Broncos-Falcons becomes the best alternative (especially if the Steelers lose but even if they win), which is a closer contest, but pretty much averages out the same. It probably needs the Redskins to lose to even have a shot. Then the 6-3 Redskins compare about the same with the 5-3 Falcons, and the 5-4 Cowboys compare about the same as the 4-4 Broncos, and Broncos-Falcons probably still loses, partly because of the name value of the game and partly because it has the advantage of already being the tentative game. If Ravens-Giants is protected, there’s no way Cowboys-Redskins is losing its spot – and even if it isn’t, it would be far from surprising to see it on Sunday night anyway. Ravens-Giants is the only other game I wouldn’t be surprised by. Analysis of the pick itself on Wednesday.
• Final prediction: Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins (no change).

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with last season in mind):

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET. (Note: Last year, NBC listed a tentative game for Week 17; they are not doing so this year.)
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night. (Note: Again, excluding Week 17.)
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and could not protect any games Week 17 last year. Unless I find out otherwise, I’m assuming that’s still the case this year, especially with no tentative game listed Week 17, and that protections were scheduled after Week 4.
• Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 4 post.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 16):

• Tentative game: Dallas @ Washington
• Prospects: The Cowboys managed to gut out a win and will get Tony Romo back for Sunday night after a Week 10 bye. This game might still be very appealing.
• Likely protections: Ravens-Giants, Titans-Jaguars, or nothing (CBS) and Bears-Packers (FOX)
• Other possible games: Chargers-Steelers is looking lopsided and is another nominee for protection. It’s out. Broncos-Falcons doesn’t look that hot.
• Prediction: For the moment, this game still has the best chance to keep its spot. If Dallas wins, I honestly don’t see a scenario where any game can knock it off, especially given the strength of the division, pedigree of the teams and rivalry, and market sizes. But the Cowboys are playing the Giants, and if they lose it’s down to .500 for them – but they still might not be replaced. Titans-Jags, if unprotected, might look appealing if both teams win, but that would only get the Jags back to .500. Because Dallas has three losses, a 3-loss team might come into play – if the Ravens beat Cleveland, Ravens-Giants gets revived if unprotected, and Broncos-Falcons might be alive if both teams win. But there’s little compelling reason to go with any of these games. Bears-Packers would look appealing if it wasn’t quite likely protected. Tune in on Monday for my final prediction.

Week 12 (November 23):

• Tentative game: Indianapolis @ San Diego
• Prospects: Both teams are below .500. NBC probably didn’t anticipate the decision to flex this game out looking this obvious.
• Likely protections: Eagles-Ravens (Fox) and Jets-Titans (CBS).
• Other possible games: Panthers-Falcons still looks good, but the Falcons are 16th in NBC’s power rankings and the game might be starting to look lopsided. Giants-Cardinals is probably in front. Patriots-Dolphins is still in it but in a heap of trouble.

Week 13 (November 30):

• Tentative game: Chicago @ Minnesota
• Prospects: 4-3 v. 3-4, Chicago is 11th in NBCSports.com’s latest power rankings, and a big game with big NFC North implications. The Vikings probably need to improve, however.
• Likely protections: Giants-Redskins (Fox) and either Steelers-Patriots or Broncos-Jets (CBS).
• Other possible games: It’s Thanksgiving Weekend, so more teams like the Cowboys and Titans aren’t available. Panthers-Packers is strong and getting stronger. On the off chance Steelers-Patriots isn’t protected it might still have to deal with Panthers-Packers. If it is, Broncos-Jets is no longer much of a draw. Falcons-Chargers is fading with the Chargers. Look for Saints-Bucs to potentially emerge as a dark horse.

Week 14 (December 7):

• Tentative game: New England @ Seattle
• Prospects: The Seahawks are just too terrible for this game to keep its spot.
• Likely protections: Cowboys-Steelers (FOX) and if anything, Jags-Bears (CBS).
• Other possible games: Redskins-Ravens has a chance to still be alive, so the Eagles and Giants shouldn’t change those tickets yet. Jags-Bears is a very dark horse if it’s unprotected, and Falcons-Saints could emerge as one.

Week 15 (December 14):

• Tentative game: NY Giants @ Dallas
• Prospects: This is why I had Fox protect Bears-Packers Week 11: so they could leave this week protection-free and maximize their chances of getting a marquee NFC East matchup back. And this game might be alive again. Their first matchup this week will do a lot to determine its prospects.
• Likely protections: Steelers-Ravens, Broncos-Panthers, Bills-Jets, or nothing (CBS).
• Other possible games: Packers-Jaguars is still in it but may be a long shot, and Bucs-Falcons is not looking as good. All of the potentially protected games pit 2-loss teams against 3-loss teams. If things break right, Vikings-Cardinals is a dark horse.

Week 16 (December 21):

• Tentative game: San Diego @ Tampa Bay
• Prospects: It’s 3-5 @ 5-3, and the Chargers are fading fast. Way too lopsided.
• Likely protections: Panthers-Giants or Eagles-Redskins (FOX) and Steelers-Titans (CBS).
• Other possible games: Cardinals-Patriots is still strong, but Falcons-Vikings and Bills-Broncos are both fading, so the only thing stopping Cardinals-Pats could be the game Fox didn’t protect.

Week 17 (December 28):

• Playoff positioning watch begins Week 9.

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with last season in mind):

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET. (Note: Last year, NBC listed a tentative game for Week 17; they are not doing so this year.)
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night. (Note: Again, excluding Week 17.)
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and could not protect any games Week 17 last year. Unless I find out otherwise, I’m assuming that’s still the case this year, especially with no tentative game listed Week 17, and that protections were scheduled after Week 4.
• Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 4 post.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 16):

• Tentative game: Dallas @ Washington
• Prospects: This game may be sliding with Tony Romo’s injury; if the Cowboys go on a losing tear the next two weeks it could cost the NFL’s greatest rivalry a Sunday night spot.
• Likely protections: Ravens-Giants, Titans-Jaguars, or nothing (CBS) and Bears-Packers (FOX)
• Other possible games: Chargers-Steelers is looking lopsided and is another nominee for protection. Broncos-Falcons doesn’t look that hot. For the moment, this game still has the best chance to keep its spot.

Week 12 (November 23):

• Tentative game: Indianapolis @ San Diego
• Prospects: A 3-3 v. 3-4 matchup that pits #16 v. #19 in NBCSports.com’s power rankings. Suddenly looks decidedly mediocre and prone to losing its spot.
• Likely protections: Eagles-Ravens (Fox) and Jets-Titans (CBS).
• Other possible games: Panthers-Falcons still looks good, but the Falcons are 13th in NBC’s power rankings. Giants-Cardinals is probably in front. Patriots-Dolphins is fading again. Too close to call right now.

Week 13 (November 30):

• Tentative game: Chicago @ Minnesota
• Prospects: 4-3 v. 3-4, Chicago is 12th in NBCSports.com’s latest power rankings, and a big game with big NFC North implications. The Vikings probably need to improve, however.
• Likely protections: Giants-Redskins (Fox) and either Steelers-Patriots or Broncos-Jets (CBS).
• Other possible games: It’s Thanksgiving Weekend, so more teams like the Cowboys and Titans aren’t available. Panthers-Packers is suddenly a strong candidate again. On the off chance Steelers-Patriots isn’t protected it might still have to deal with Panthers-Packers. If it is, Broncos-Jets is no longer much of a draw. Falcons-Chargers is fading with the Chargers. Look for Saints-Bucs to potentially emerge as a dark horse.

Week 14 (December 7):

• Tentative game: New England @ Seattle
• Prospects: The Seahawks are just too terrible for this game to keep its spot.
• Likely protections: Cowboys-Steelers (FOX) and if anything, Jags-Bears (CBS).
• Other possible games: Redskins-Ravens is probably out with the Ravens’ losing streak, which means the Eagles and Giants may have a Sunday Night date to look forward to. Jags-Bears is a very dark horse if it’s unprotected, and Falcons-Saints could emerge as one.

Week 15 (December 14):

• Tentative game: NY Giants @ Dallas
• Prospects: This is why I had Fox protect Bears-Packers Week 11: so they could leave this week protection-free and maximize their chances of getting a marquee NFC East matchup back. However, this game may be starting to fade if Tony Romo is out a while.
• Likely protections: Steelers-Ravens, Broncos-Panthers, Bills-Jets, or nothing (CBS).
• Othe possible games: Packers-Jaguars has rebounded a little, but Bucs-Falcons is looking terrific. None of the potentially protected games looks all that great at the moment.

Week 16 (December 21):

• Tentative game: San Diego @ Tampa Bay
• Prospects: It’s 3-4 @ 5-2, and the Chargers are fading fast. Way too lopsided.
• Likely protections: Panthers-Giants or Eagles-Redskins (FOX) and Steelers-Titans (CBS).
• Other possible games: Cardinals-Patriots is still strong, but Falcons-Vikings and Bills-Broncos are both fading, so the only thing stopping Cardinals-Pats could be the game Fox didn’t protect.

Week 17 (December 28):

• Playoff positioning watch begins Week 9.