SNF Flex Scheduling Watch

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it still says late games start at 4:15 ET instead of 4:25):

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 last year as well as the first year of flexible scheduling, because NBC hosted Christmas night games those years and all the other games were moved to Saturday (and so couldn’t be flexed), but are otherwise protected after Week 5.
• In the past, three teams could appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. I don’t know how the expansion of the Thursday Night schedule affects this, if it does. No team starts the season completely tapped out at any measure; eight teams have five primetime appearances each, but only the Broncos and Bears don’t have at least one game that can be flexed out. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 17 (December 30):

AFC Playoff Picture

DIVISION LEADERS	WILD CARD	WAITING IN THE WINGS (6-8)
EAST 49-5	59-5
8-6
EAST 310-4	68-6
CLINCHED
WEST 211-3	7-7
CLINCHED
SOUTH 112-2
CLINCHED

NFC Playoff Picture

DIVISION LEADERS	WILD CARD	WAITING IN THE WINGS (6-7)
EAST 48-6	59-5
2 teams at 8-6
NORTH 310-4	68-6
2 teams at 8-6
WEST 210-3-1	8-6
9-5	8-6
SOUTH 112-2	8-6
CLINCHED	6-7-1

• Tentative game: None (NBC will show game with guaranteed playoff implications).
• Possible games: Ravens-Bengals, Packers-Vikings, Cowboys-Redskins, Eagles-Giants.
• Cowboys-Redskins will be picked if: The Giants lose OR the Cowboys win. Both teams split the season series with the Giants, but the Giants can’t finish with a division record better than 3-3, while the Cowboys-Redskins winner will pick up at least their fourth division win. The Redskins won the first game against the Cowboys and so would sweep them with a win, so even with a Cowboys win this week a loss to the Redskins would eliminate them from the division. As this is the most TV-friendly option, it seems very likely, with the caveat that the loser could still get a wild card spot, and even if this scenario doesn’t play out…
• Eagles-Giants will be picked if: The Giants win AND the Cowboys and Redskins lose, which would put this scenario (scroll to the bottom) into play. As would…
• Packers-Vikings could theoretically be picked if: The Vikings win AND the NFC East teams all lose, as the Vikings would lose a tiebreaker to any of them but swept the Bears. But if that were to happen, the Vikings win by itself means I can’t see a scenario where the Cowboys-Redskins loser gets a playoff spot, wiping out Packers-Vikings’ one potential saving grace.
• Ravens-Bengals will be picked if: The Ravens lose AND the Bengals beat the Steelers AND the Giants and Redskins win AND the Cowboys lose. Even then, the Ravens already have a playoff spot and the Bengals-Steelers result would assure the Bengals of one too; I haven’t researched that infernal common-games tiebreaker between the Colts and Bengals, but it’s very possible this game would merely determine home-field advantage for a rematch the following week, whether as the 3-6 or 4-5 game (if New England loses out, a Ravens win in this game gives them the 3 since they beat the Pats).

Note: This week’s post does not include the results of the Thursday night game.

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it still says late games start at 4:15 ET instead of 4:25):

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 last year as well as the first year of flexible scheduling, because NBC hosted Christmas night games those years and all the other games were moved to Saturday (and so couldn’t be flexed), but are otherwise protected after Week 5.
• In the past, three teams could appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. I don’t know how the expansion of the Thursday Night schedule affects this, if it does. No team starts the season completely tapped out at any measure; eight teams have five primetime appearances each, but only the Broncos and Bears don’t have at least one game that can be flexed out. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 16 (December 23):

• Selected game: San Francisco @ Seattle.

Week 17 (December 30):

AFC Playoff Picture

DIVISION LEADERS	WILD CARD	WAITING IN THE WINGS (5-8)
NORTH 49-4	59-4
2 teams at 7-6
WEST 310-3	67-6
CLINCHED
EAST 210-3	7-6
CLINCHED	6-7
SOUTH 111-2
9-4

NFC Playoff Picture

DIVISION LEADERS	WILD CARD	WAITING IN THE WINGS (6-7)
EAST 48-5	58-5
2 teams at 7-6
NORTH 39-4	68-5
8-5
WEST 29-3-1	7-6
8-5	7-6
SOUTH 111-2	7-6
CLINCHED	6-6-1

• Tentative game: None (NBC will show game with guaranteed playoff implications).
• Possible games: Jets-Bills, Ravens-Bengals, Bears-Lions, Packers-Vikings, Bucs-Falcons, Texans-Colts, Dolphins-Patriots, Cowboys-Redskins, Steelers-Browns, Seahawks-Rams.
• Because of how many games this week have playoff implications, I will not give any speculation or scenarios for what games might be picked until next week.

Week 16 (December 23):

• Tentative game: San Diego @ NY Jets
• Despite both San Diego and the Jets winning, and the Bengals and Jets losing, Tim Tebow did not play against the Jags today, so there are no signs he will be starting going forward, which is the only scenario under which the tentative would be kept.
• Final prediction: San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks.

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it still says late games start at 4:15 ET instead of 4:25):

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 last year as well as the first year of flexible scheduling, because NBC hosted Christmas night games those years and all the other games were moved to Saturday (and so couldn’t be flexed), but are otherwise protected after Week 5.
• In the past, three teams could appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. I don’t know how the expansion of the Thursday Night schedule affects this, if it does. No team starts the season completely tapped out at any measure; eight teams have five primetime appearances each, but only the Broncos and Bears don’t have at least one game that can be flexed out. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 18):

• Selected game: Baltimore @ Pittsburgh.

Week 12 (November 25):

• Selected game: Green Bay @ NY Giants.

Week 13 (December 2):

• Selected game: Philadelphia @ Dallas.

Week 14 (December 9):

• Selected game: Detroit @ Green Bay.

Week 15 (December 16):

• Selected game: San Francisco @ New England.

Week 16 (December 23):

• Tentative game: San Diego @ NY Jets
• Prospects: 5-7 v. 4-8. What a horrible game, there’s no way it isn’t getting flexed… wait a second… did Rex Ryan just bench Mark Sanchez? Is that… is that the Tebow Express I hear coming into the station?!? But is it too late for even Touchdown Jesus to save the day, especially with Sanchez keeping his starting job for now?
• Likely protections: Giants-Ravens (FOX) and Bengals-Steelers (CBS).
• Other possible games: It helps Chargers-Jets’ case that a lot of the alternatives are questionable at best; Vikings-Texans keeps getting more and more lopsided, and Saints-Cowboys and Rams-Bucs are mediocre at best, with the Saints unable to get back to .500 in time. 49ers-Seahawks, on the other hand, currently sits at 8-3-1 v. 7-5 and may well end up deciding the NFC West, and certainly will have wild card implications.
• Analysis: So far ahead is 49ers-Seahawks, when Vikings-Texans is the only other unprotected game with a team above .500, that it’s really the only game worth considering, and a shoo-in under normal circumstances. If Sanchez is benched for Tebow, who leads them to a win to get to 6-7, the Seahawks lose, and the Bengals and Steelers lose as well to put the Jets only one game out of a playoff spot, and there are any rumblings of Tebow keeping the starting job on Monday, then I think there is at least a chance the Tebow factor takes over and keeps the spot for Chargers-Jets – remember, NBC’s chances to get Tebow last year were stymied at every turn. But everything has to break down perfectly, or the NFC West will take over Sunday night. (The 49ers would be maxed out on primetime appearances, but it’s extremely unlikely that Cardinals-49ers would be considered for a Week 17 flex; only way that happens is if the standings set up so that a San Fran loss puts them either behind the Seahawks or tied with the Rams, and even then the Niners might still get a wild card and the NFL would have to fear that 49ers-Cardinals would be their only Week 17 option for it to trump 49ers-Seahawks.)

Week 17 (December 30):

AFC Playoff Picture

DIVISION LEADERS	WILD CARD	WAITING IN THE WINGS (5-7)
WEST 49-3	58-4
CLINCHED
NORTH 39-3	67-5
2 teams at 7-5
EAST 29-3	7-5
3 teams at 5-7
SOUTH 111-1
8-4

NFC Playoff Picture

DIVISION LEADERS	WILD CARD	WAITING IN THE WINGS
EAST 47-5	58-4	5-6-1
2 teams at 6-6		5-7
NORTH 38-4	67-5
8-4
WEST 28-2-1	6-6
7-5	6-6
SOUTH 111-1	6-6
CLINCHED	6-6

• Tentative game: None (NBC will show game with guaranteed playoff implications).
• Possible games: Jets-Bills, Ravens-Bengals, Bears-Lions, Packers-Vikings, Bucs-Falcons, Texans-Colts, Dolphins-Patriots, Cowboys-Redskins, Cardinals-49ers, Seahawks-Rams.

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it still says late games start at 4:15 ET instead of 4:25):

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 last year as well as the first year of flexible scheduling, because NBC hosted Christmas night games those years and all the other games were moved to Saturday (and so couldn’t be flexed), but are otherwise protected after Week 5.
• In the past, three teams could appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. I don’t know how the expansion of the Thursday Night schedule affects this, if it does. No team starts the season completely tapped out at any measure; eight teams have five primetime appearances each, but only the Broncos and Bears don’t have at least one game that can be flexed out. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 18):

• Selected game: Baltimore @ Pittsburgh.

Week 12 (November 25):

• Selected game: Green Bay @ NY Giants.

Week 13 (December 2):

• Selected game: Philadelphia @ Dallas.

Week 14 (December 9):

• Selected game: Detroit @ Green Bay.

Week 15 (December 16):

• Selected game: San Francisco @ New England. If you thought last year’s early flexing-out of Colts-Patriots was weird, how about an early keeping of a game? Especially a game that isn’t even the best unprotected game of the week, with Broncos-Ravens almost certainly unprotected? But it’s hard to see any game overcoming the tentative game bias against an 8-3 v. 8-2-1 battle of division leaders; even if Broncos-Ravens had gone to 10-2 v. 9-3, and 49ers-Patriots had gone to 8-4 v. 8-3-1, it wouldn’t be terribly surprising that the NFL would stick with the tentative, as both games would still be matchups of division leaders. The real surprise is that Broncos-Ravens hasn’t been moved to the anchor spot of CBS’ doubleheader, especially given the Peyton Manning factor; it’s kind of hard to sell Steelers-Cowboys at this point by comparison, despite it being one of only two trips to Cowboys Stadium the Tiffany Network will be able to take all year, and being two teams with larger, more committed fanbases.

Week 16 (December 23):

• Tentative game: San Diego @ NY Jets
• Prospects: 4-7 v. 4-7. After the debacle Thanksgiving night, do you really think NBC wants to go back to the Jets’ circus again? Only God (through His prophet Tebow) can save this game now.
• Likely protections: Giants-Ravens (FOX) and Bengals-Steelers if anything (CBS).
• Other possible games: Should prevent this from being a whole no-flex season, but with the Vikings’ slide 49ers-Seahawks might be a better option than Vikings-Texans, which is now looking very lopsided. Bengals-Steelers is also an option if it’s unprotected, and keep an eye on Saints-Cowboys.

Week 17 (December 30):

AFC Playoff Picture

DIVISION LEADERS	WILD CARD	WAITING IN THE WINGS (4-7)
WEST 48-3	57-4
4-7
EAST 38-3	66-5
5-6
NORTH 29-2	6-5
2 tied at 6-5	5-6
SOUTH 110-1
7-4

NFC Playoff Picture

DIVISION LEADERS	WILD CARD	WAITING IN THE WINGS
EAST 47-4	57-4	5-6
2 tied at 5-6		5-6
NORTH 38-3	66-5	5-6
7-4		4-6-1
WEST 28-2-1	6-5	4-7
6-5	6-5	4-7
SOUTH 110-1
6-5

• Tentative game: None (NBC will show game with guaranteed playoff implications).
• Possible games: Jets-Bills, Ravens-Bengals, Bears-Lions, Packers-Vikings, Bucs-Falcons, Texans-Colts, Dolphins-Patriots, Cowboys-Redskins, Cardinals-49ers, Seahawks-Rams.

Week 14 (December 9):

• Tentative game: Detroit @ Green Bay
• Prospects: 4-7 v. 8-3. The Lions briefly looked to have escaped their mediocre start, but right now this game looks awfully lopsided.
• Likely protections: Bears-Vikings or Cardinals-Seahawks if anything, more likely the former (FOX) and Chargers-Steelers (CBS).
• Other possible games mentioned on last week’s Watch and their records: Saints (5-6)-Giants (7-4), Cowboys (5-6)-Bengals (6-5).
• Impact of Monday Night Football: Don’t make me laugh.
• Analysis: I wrote “the .500 teams absolutely have to win unless Bears-Vikings turns out to be unprotected”, and both lost. Saints-Giants looks like an interesting matchup, especially as the Saints have rallied after their disastrous start, but I don’t know that it’s good enough to overcome the tentative game bias. On the one hand, the Saints have been playing better than their record; on the other hand, the Giants would be maxed out, although it’s really doubtful Giants-Eagles gets flexed in Week 17.
• Final prediction: New Orleans Saints @ New York Giants, though I wouldn’t be surprised by no change.
• Actual selection: Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers (no change). (Let it be said that Bears-Vikings would have been a shoo-in had it not been protected.)

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it still says late games start at 4:15 ET instead of 4:25):

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 last year as well as the first year of flexible scheduling, because NBC hosted Christmas night games those years and all the other games were moved to Saturday (and so couldn’t be flexed), but are otherwise protected after Week 5.
• In the past, three teams could appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. I don’t know how the expansion of the Thursday Night schedule affects this, if it does. No team starts the season completely tapped out at any measure; eight teams have five primetime appearances each, but only the Broncos and Bears don’t have at least one game that can be flexed out. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 18):

• Selected game: Baltimore @ Pittsburgh.

Week 12 (November 25):

• Selected game: Green Bay @ NY Giants.

Week 13 (December 2):

• Selected game: Philadelphia @ Dallas.

Week 14 (December 9):

• Tentative game: Detroit @ Green Bay
• Prospects: 4-6 v. 7-3. The Lions briefly looked to have escaped their mediocre start, but right now this game looks awfully lopsided.
• Likely protections: Bears-Vikings or Cardinals-Seahawks if anything, more likely the former (FOX) and Chargers-Steelers (CBS).
• Other possible games: Bears-Vikings is the only game involving two teams above .500 on Sunday. Saints-Giants and Cowboys-Bengals are options, but they might not sweep the NFL off its feet.
• Analysis: If Bears-Vikings is protected, Lions-Packers might well keep its spot by default. The Vikings-Bears half of that rivalry is this week, so even if Bears-Vikings turns out to be unprotected, a Lions win means an 8-3 v. 6-5 game probably isn’t going to overcome the tentative game bias when Lions-Packers would either be only a game worse or a game more lopsided, and I’m not sure a 7-4 v. 7-4 game could overcome the tentative game bias either. So if the Lions win on Thanksgiving, they’re probably keeping their spot, but if they lose things could get a lot more interesting, but the .500 teams absolutely have to win unless Bears-Vikings turns out to be unprotected.

Week 15 (December 16):

• Tentative game: San Francisco @ New England
• Prospects: 7-2-1 v. 7-3, a battle of division leaders; hard to see this one losing its spot against any competition.
• Likely protections: Broncos-Ravens (probably not), Colts-Texans, Steelers-Cowboys, or nothing (CBS) and Giants-Falcons (FOX).
• Other possible games: Broncos-Ravens, Colts-Texans, Packers-Bears (or if it’s protected, Giants-Falcons), a tentative much worse than this would probably be doomed. Steelers-Cowboys and Bucs-Saints are dark horses.

Week 16 (December 23):

• Tentative game: San Diego @ NY Jets
• Prospects: 4-6 v. 4-6. This game can only keep its spot if Tim Tebow is the Jets’ starting quarterback by this point.
• Likely protections: Giants-Ravens (FOX) and Bengals-Steelers if anything (CBS).
• Other possible games: Looking like the only surefire flex, but with the Vikings’ slide 49ers-Seahawks might be a better option than Vikings-Texans, which is now looking very lopsided. Bengals-Steelers is a dark horse if it’s unprotected.

Week 17 (December 30):

AFC Playoff Picture

DIVISION LEADERS	WILD CARD	WAITING IN THE WINGS (4-6)
WEST 47-3	56-4
4-6
EAST 37-3	66-4
3 teams at 4-6
NORTH 28-2	5-5
6-4
SOUTH 19-1
6-4

NFC Playoff Picture

DIVISION LEADERS	WILD CARD	WAITING IN THE WINGS (4-6)
EAST 46-4	57-3
5-5
NORTH 37-3	66-4
7-3
WEST 27-2-1	6-4
6-4	6-4
SOUTH 19-1	5-5
6-4	5-5

• Tentative game: None (NBC will show game with guaranteed playoff implications).
• Possible games: Jets-Bills, Ravens-Bengals, Bears-Lions, Packers-Vikings, Bucs-Falcons, Texans-Colts, Dolphins-Patriots, Cowboys-Redskins, Cardinals-49ers.

Week 13 (December 2):

• Tentative game: Philadelphia @ Dallas
• Prospects: Very iffy at 5-5 v. 3-7 (and the Giants starting to pull away with the division); would even the NFC East factor overcome such mediocre teams?
• Likely protections: 49ers-Rams or Vikings-Packers (FOX) and Steelers-Ravens (CBS).
• Other possible games mentioned on last week’s Watch and their records: Vikings (6-4)-Packers (7-3), Seahawks (6-4)-Bears (7-2), Bucs (6-4)-Broncos (7-3), Pats (7-3)-Dolphins (4-6), Colts (6-4)-Lions (4-6).
• Impact of Monday Night Football: Under normal circumstances, the Bears would be playing to give Seahawks-Bears a leg up over Vikings-Packers and Bucs-Broncos, giving it a better pair of records at the expense of being a little lopsided, something it needs given it’s the least TV-friendly of the three. These aren’t normal circumstances.
• Analysis: Two years ago, against all logic, the NFL kept a tentative with a 3-8 Cowboys team, prompting this rant about how the tentative game bias can be so extreme as to render flex scheduling nearly worthless. With a better Dallas team this year that’s only a game out of the wild card, I suggested that, even with an Eagle loss to make it semi-lopsided and mediocre at best at 5-5 v. 3-7, a Dallas win would pretty much guarantee this game keeps its spot; it would hardly be the worst tentative the NFL has kept. Dallas then had one more loss than Philly has now and the game is less lopsided, while the Cowboys are still in the thick of the playoff race. But the best alternative available then was Chiefs-Chargers at 7-4 v. 6-5, and the collection of 7-3 v. 6-4 games are mighty tempting. If this tentative were anything else, I would bet on Vikings-Packers or Bucs-Broncos. As it stands?
• Final prediction: Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys (no change). (Does the lack of an announcement suggest that Seahawks-Bears has a shot with a Bears win?)

Note: This week’s post does not include the results of the Thursday night game.

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it still says late games start at 4:15 ET instead of 4:25):

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 last year as well as the first year of flexible scheduling, because NBC hosted Christmas night games those years and all the other games were moved to Saturday (and so couldn’t be flexed), but are otherwise protected after Week 5.
• In the past, three teams could appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. I don’t know how the expansion of the Thursday Night schedule affects this, if it does. No team starts the season completely tapped out at any measure; eight teams have five primetime appearances each, but only the Broncos and Bears don’t have at least one game that can be flexed out. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 18):

• Selected game: Baltimore @ Pittsburgh.

Week 12 (November 25):

• Selected game: Green Bay @ NY Giants.

Week 13 (December 2):

• Tentative game: Philadelphia @ Dallas
• Prospects: Very iffy at 4-5 v. 3-6 (and the Giants starting to pull away with the division); would even the NFC East factor overcome such mediocre teams?
• Likely protections: 49ers-Rams or Vikings-Packers (FOX) and Steelers-Ravens (CBS).
• Other possible games: Vikings-Packers and Seahawks-Bears would both be strong contenders, with Bucs-Broncos starting to sneak up. Pats-Dolphins and Colts-Lions have outside shots still, or at least did before the Dolphins lost.
• Analysis: Two years ago, against all logic, the NFL kept a tentative with a 3-8 Cowboys team, prompting this rant about how the tentative game bias can be so extreme as to render flex scheduling nearly worthless. This is a better Dallas team and a win over the lowly Browns would get them to 5-5, only a game behind the current last wild card at 6-4. As such, even with an Eagle loss to make it semi-lopsided and mediocre at best at 5-5 v. 3-7, a Dallas win would pretty much guarantee this game keeps its spot; it would hardly be the worst tentative the NFL has kept. If the Cowboys lose, the best pair of records standing against a tentative where 4-6 is the best record would probably be Seahawks-Bears at 6-4 v. 8-2 or 7-3, with Vikings-Packers possibly matching it and Bucs-Broncos having an outside shot of doing the same. Yet it’s entirely possible that of that group, only Vikings-Packers has even an outside shot of challenging the tentative; the Seahawks and Bucs aren’t enough of name teams. Will the NFL bite the bullet and keep a game with both teams below .500 solely because of its name value? Everyone hopes they don’t have to find out.

Week 14 (December 9):

• Tentative game: Detroit @ Green Bay
• Prospects: 4-5 v. 6-3. The Lions have largely escaped their mediocre start, but they are hardly the draw they were when they were the beneficiary of the Manning-injury-ruined Colts-Pats game last year.
• Likely protections: Bears-Vikings or Cardinals-Seahawks if anything, more likely the former (FOX) and Chargers-Steelers (CBS).
• Other possible games: At this point, Lions-Packers may keep its spot by default if nothing else; right now Bears-Vikings is the only game involving two teams above .500 on Sunday. The Dolphins are fading, so Dolphins-49ers might be out, and the Cardinals are fading, so Cardinals-Seahawks might be out. On the other hand, Saints-Giants is becoming a dark horse, one Giants loss off from having the same pair of records as the tentative, but could it build a substantial enough lead before the time comes?

Week 15 (December 16):

• Tentative game: San Francisco @ New England
• Prospects: 6-2-1 v. 6-3, a battle of division leaders; hard to see this one losing its spot against any competition.
• Likely protections: Broncos-Ravens (probably not), Colts-Texans, Steelers-Cowboys, or nothing (CBS) and Giants-Falcons (FOX).
• Other possible games: Broncos-Ravens, Colts-Texans, Packers-Bears (or if it’s protected, Giants-Falcons), a tentative much worse than this would probably be doomed. Steelers-Cowboys is a dark horse, and Bucs-Saints is darker still.

Week 16 (December 23):

• Tentative game: San Diego @ NY Jets
• Prospects: 4-5 v. 3-6. This game can only keep its spot if Tim Tebow is the Jets’ starting quarterback by this point.
• Likely protections: Giants-Ravens (FOX) and Bengals-Steelers if anything (CBS).
• Other possible games: Looking like the only real flex candidate, specifically with Vikings-Texans, though 49ers-Seahawks is also an option and Bengals-Steelers and Bears-Cardinals are outside possibilities.

Week 17 (December 30):

AFC Playoff Picture

DIVISION LEADERS	WILD CARD	WAITING IN THE WINGS (4-5)
WEST 46-3	56-3
4-5
EAST 36-3	66-3
4-5
NORTH 27-2
6-3
SOUTH 18-1
6-3

NFC Playoff Picture

DIVISION LEADERS	WILD CARD	WAITING IN THE WINGS (4-5)
EAST 46-4	56-3
4-5
WEST 36-2-1	66-4
6-4
NORTH 27-2	6-4
6-3	5-4
SOUTH 18-1
5-4

• Tentative game: None (NBC will show game with guaranteed playoff implications).
• Possible games: Ravens-Bengals, Bears-Lions, Packers-Vikings, Bucs-Falcons, Texans-Colts, Dolphins-Patriots, Cardinals-49ers.

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it still says late games start at 4:15 ET instead of 4:25):

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 last year as well as the first year of flexible scheduling, because NBC hosted Christmas night games those years and all the other games were moved to Saturday (and so couldn’t be flexed), but are otherwise protected after Week 5.
• In the past, three teams could appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. I don’t know how the expansion of the Thursday Night schedule affects this, if it does. No team starts the season completely tapped out at any measure; eight teams have five primetime appearances each, but only the Broncos and Bears don’t have at least one game that can be flexed out. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 18):

• Selected game: Baltimore @ Pittsburgh.

Week 12 (November 25):

• Tentative game: Green Bay @ NY Giants
• Prospects: 6-3 v. 6-3; the Packers may have started out mediocre, but now this game might have the best chance to keep its spot.
• Likely protections: Vikings-Bears or Rams-Cardinals if anything (FOX) and probably nothing (CBS) as Ravens-Chargers was their only real protection-worthy game and both teams have listed two protected games each, neither of which was this one.
• Other possible games: Normally Thanksgiving Weekend means a paucity of good games, but here we have Vikings-Bears, Ravens-Chargers, Seahawks-Dolphins, and Falcons-Bucs.
• Analysis: Vikings-Bears would be a very strong choice if it’s unprotected (a big if), but it’s become pretty lopsided at this point; the best it could do would probably be 6-4 v. 7-2, which might get flexed in against a weaker tentative, but as is wouldn’t be enough to overcome the tentative game bias against Packers-Giants at 6-3 v. 6-4. I’d still expect it to get the late afternoon feature spot. The other games all involve 4-4 teams, which isn’t remotely good enough against this competition.
• Final prediction: Green Bay Packers @ New York Giants (no change).

Week 13 (December 2):

• Tentative game: Philadelphia @ Dallas
• Prospects: Very iffy at 3-5 v. 3-5 (and the Giants starting to pull away with the division); would even the NFC East factor overcome such mediocre teams?
• Likely protections: 49ers-Rams or Vikings-Packers (FOX) and Steelers-Ravens (CBS).
• Other possible games: Vikings-Packers would be the strongest alternative if it’s unprotected (another big if), as Seahawks-Bears might be a little too lopsided. Pats-Dolphins, Colts-Lions, and Bucs-Broncos are dark horses.

Week 14 (December 9):

• Tentative game: Detroit @ Green Bay
• Prospects: 4-4 v. 6-3. The Lions have largely escaped their mediocre start, though if it weren’t for the Packers’ own mediocre start this would probably look lopsided anyway.
• Likely protections: Bears-Vikings or Cardinals-Seahawks if anything (FOX) and Chargers-Steelers (CBS).
• Other possible games: With the Cardinals following their 4-0 start with a 5-game losing streak, Bears-Vikings and Dolphins-49ers are the only two options, and the former is dependent on being unprotected. At this point Bears-Vikings is probably too lopsided to overcome the tentative game bias anyway, and Dolphins-49ers is about the same as the tentative, which won’t overcome the tentative game bias either.

Week 15 (December 16):

• Tentative game: San Francisco @ New England
• Prospects: 6-2 v. 5-3, pretty much in the same shape as Packers-Giants, replacing the Packers with the Patriots and noting that the Niners aren’t quite all the way back to being that much of a name team.
• Likely protections: Broncos-Ravens (probably not), Colts-Texans, Steelers-Cowboys, or nothing (CBS) and Giants-Falcons (FOX).
• Other possible games: Packers-Bears (or if it’s protected, Giants-Falcons) is in the best shape, though Broncos-Ravens and Colts-Texans are also competitive. I doubt any of them can beat this tentative, though.

Week 16 (December 23):

• Tentative game: San Diego @ NY Jets
• Prospects: 4-4 v. 3-5; no longer the worst of the tentative games, but maybe the most vulnerable. This game’s best chance to keep its spot may rest with the Jets getting on the Tebow bandwagon.
• Likely protections: Giants-Ravens (FOX) and Bengals-Steelers if anything (CBS).
• Other possible games: If Vikings-Packers is protected Week 13, this is probably the likeliest flex with Vikings-Texans giving NBC a shot to show the Vikings anyway, assuming it doesn’t become too lopsided, and 49ers-Seahawks a potential option if it does.

Week 17 (December 30):

• Playoff positioning watch begins next week because I’m not setting up that on top of everything else in my life.