SNF Flex Scheduling Watch

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 4

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NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind):

  • Begins Sunday of Week 11
  • In effect during Weeks 11-17
  • Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
  • The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
  • The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
  • The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
  • The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
  • Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
  • NFL schedules all games.
  • Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
  • Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and could not protect any games Week 17 in 2007. Unless I find out otherwise, I’m assuming that’s still the case this year, especially with no tentative game listed Week 17, and that protections are being scheduled now, after Week 4.
  • Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. At this writing, no team is completely tapped out at any measure, although the Colts have five primetime appearances and can’t be flexed out of any of them, which is a problem since three other teams also have five primetime appearances and can be flexed out of them. NBC appearances for all teams: TEN 2, PIT 3 (1 flexible), CHI 3 (1 flexible), GB 1, NYG 4 (1 flexible), DAL 3 (1 flexible), IND 3, ARI 2, SD 1, ATL 1, PHI 4 (2 flexible), NE 3 (1 flexible), BAL 1 (flexible), MIA 1 (flexible), MIN 1 (flexible), CAR 1 (flexible), WAS 1 (flexible). All primetime appearances for all teams: TEN 4, PIT 5 (1 flexible), CHI 5 (1 flexible), GB 3, NYG 4 (1 flexible), DAL 5 (1 flexible), IND 5, ARI 3, SD 4, ATL 2, PHI 3 (2 flexible), NE 3 (1 flexible), BAL 3 (1 flexible), MIA 4 (1 flexible), MIN 3 (1 flexible), CAR 3 (1 flexible), WAS 3 (1 flexible), BUF 2, OAK 1, NYJ 2, DEN 3, NO 3, SF 2, CLE 2, HOU 1, JAX 1.
  • A rule that may have come to light late last year but that, given its restrictiveness and lateness in coming to light, I’m having trouble accepting, is that the balance of primetime games taken from FOX and CBS can’t go beyond 22-20 one way or the other. The current tally is FOX 15, CBS 20; with tentative games, the tally is FOX 19, CBS 22. With this rule in place, Weeks 11 and 14-16 cannot be flexed away from NFC road games without making up for it in Weeks 12, 13, and 17, and even with that at least one more game would have to be flexed to an NFC road game in said weeks.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 22):

  • Tentative game: Philadelphia @ Chicago
  • Prospects: 2-1 v. 3-1, with a decent chance of keeping its spot.
  • Likely protections: Jets-Patriots or Colts-Ravens, most likely the former (CBS) and Giants-Falcons or Redskins-Cowboys (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Chargers-Broncos and 49ers-Packers are the major contenders right now other than the protected games.

Week 12 (November 29):

  • Tentative game: Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
  • Prospects: 2-2 v. 3-1, but the Steelers are defending champs and it’s a rivalry game. If the Steelers can rebound from their slow start they have a good chance of keeping their spot.
  • Likely protections: If anything, Jaguars-49ers or Colts-Texans (CBS) and Bears-Vikings (FOX).
  • Other possible games: It’s Thanksgiving Weekend, so there is some slim pickings for games – the major reason this might be CBS’ unprotected week is that Bears-Vikings is the only Saturday game without a team with two or more losses. Jaguars-49ers, Colts-Texans, and Redskins-Eagles are the other games involving a 2-2 team playing a team with less than 2 losses, but CBS’ power rankings expects the Steelers to be better than the Niners right now (and Fox has them ahead of the Broncos!).

Week 13 (December 6):

  • Tentative game: New England @ Miami
  • Prospects: A little lopsided at 3-1 v. 1-3, but anything can happen.
  • Likely protections: Eagles-Falcons, Cowboys-Giants, or Vikings-Cardinals (FOX) and Jaguars-Texans if anything (CBS).
  • Other possible games: The only reason CBS might protect a game this week is because of the weakness of the tentative game, but for them to protect any game other than the battle of 2-2 teams is to take a leap of faith that some team below .500 is going to improve. The major candidates are the Fox unprotected games above, and only if teams improve – Eagles-Falcons is the only Saturday game this week pitting two teams with one or no losses.

Week 14 (December 13):

  • Tentative game: Philadelphia @ NY Giants
  • Prospects: It’s an NFC East game (always = ratings) , the Giants are 4-0, and the Eagles are considered by most to be closer to 3-1 than 2-2. Pretty good shot to keep its spot, which means Fox could leave this week unprotected. But Fox has a single good game, and the next week has a ton of them and another tentative game that would go to them with a flex, so I say they go ahead and protect this week.
  • Likely protections: Bengals-Vikings or Broncos-Colts (CBS) and Saints-Falcons (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Chargers-Cowboys or Packers-Bears.

Week 15 (December 20):

  • Tentative game: Minnesota @ Carolina
  • Prospects: Incredibly lopsided, with the Vikings unbeaten and the Panthers winless, but it’s the only game slotted for NBC and SNF’s best shot to get Brett Favre other than this game is the Cardinals game Week 13 and the Giants game Week 17, the latter of which will be affected by the game’s playoff implications.
  • Likely protections: Falcons-Jets, Bears-Ravens, or 49ers-Eagles (Fox) and if anything, Packers-Steelers or Bengals-Chargers (CBS).
  • Other possible games: See above. The bounty of great games on Fox will still include a protection for reasons described below, while this is CBS’ third nominee for an unprotected week; they might still protect a game (probably Packers-Steelers) because they wouldn’t get anything back, or they could bet that even if NBC flexes away from Vikings-Panthers it’s probably to another Fox game.

Week 16 (December 27):

  • Tentative game: Dallas @ Washington
  • Prospects: Could go either way, with both teams at 2-2, but it is the NFL’s biggest rivalry so its chances of keeping its spot are probably better than even. Given how crappy Fox’s games are and how marquee this game is regardless of records, I’d say this is the likeliest spot for their unprotected game.
  • Likely protections: Jets-Colts, Ravens-Steelers, or Broncos-Eagles (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Jaguars-Patriots.

Week 17 (January 3):

  • Playoff positioning watch begins Week 9.

Running Playoff and SNF Week 17 Watch

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I lost the first version of this post. This is a quick update. Will update this post as the day progresses. Maybe.
-Colts and Ravens improved their standing, but a Colts loss next week could still bring them down to a tiebreaker. Tiebreak checks later. Dolphins and Pats both win, Jets playing Seahawks.
-Chargers took care of their half. Can the Bills beat the Broncos?
-Titans lock up the 1 seed, Steelers the 2.
-Falcons-Vikings, Eagles-Redskins on now. Bucs and Cowboys both lost, so the Redskins aren’t out yet.
-If an NFC game can be selected, don’t expect an announcement on FNIA like last year.

Broncos leading Bills, but barely. Seahawks up by a touchdown over Jets. Redskins up on Vikings but Falcons up on Vikings, which would eliminate the ‘Skins.

AFC East Tiebreakers: If Jets beat Miami next week they hold tiebreaker over Pats who hold tiebreak over Dolphins, assuming all three are tied with each other (a possibility with the Jets losing), otherwise all three are 1-1 against each of the other two. If the Dolphins and Pats win next week the division records will all be 4-2, if the Jets win they will hold the division tiebreaker, if the Pats lose and the Dolphins win the Pats lose the division tiebreaker.

Right now the following scenarios are possible: If the Jets lose today:
-Jets win, Patriots lose. Three-way tie goes to Jets for division. Pats and Dolphins go to common games. More on that later.
-Jets win, Patriots win. Pats win division outright. Jets win tiebreak over Dolphins.
-Dolphins win, Patriots win. Pats and Dolphins go to common games for division. Jets to 7 losses and probably out of playoffs.
-Dolphins win, Patriots lose. Dolphins win division outright. Pats first choice of NFC East for wild card spot with six losses. Jets to 7 losses and probably out of playoffs.
The Seahawks appear to be wrapping up the game.

Pats-Dolphins common games: Pats 7-1, Dolphins 7-1 outside division. Dolphins would hold conference tiebreaker.

If Colts lose next week, Ravens, Dolphins, Pats win, Colts-Ravens-Pats three-way, one team must be eliminated to determine wild card. Indy beat both teams so they win the head-to-head sweep and are in the playoffs. No Titans-Colts next week on SNF. Ravens would hold the conference games tiebreak over Patriots, but are still vulnerable to a loss next week.

Seattle beats the Jets. Buffalo leading Denver by a touchdown. Washington leading by a touchdown but Atlanta running away with it over the Vikings.

If Pats lose next week Dolphins-Jets is for division. If current score holds Chargers-Broncos will also be for division. If NFC game can’t be selected it will be one of those two. My pick is Dolphins-Jets, because of the Favre factor and because they’re better teams.

Vikings are in big trouble unless the Packers win Monday night. Bucs can’t win division but the dream is still alive for the Falcons to continue the last-one-year-first-the-next trend. Assuming the Falcons go on to win, the Redskins are out and they will have been in the process of eliminating the Eagles as well, and a Packers win would eliminate the Bears entirely.

Falcons may be clinching themselves a playoff spot, in all practicality. The schedule breaks down such that I think they are cinching up the common games tiebreaker over the Bucs. Even if Dallas wins next week, which would mean they would likely have a conference games tiebreaker, the Falcons would be in by virtue of that tiebreaker – assuming the Bears lose.

If current scores hold, not even Cowboys-Eagles may look as attractive as NBC would like, if the Eagles are already out of the playoffs, and if the Bears lose I think that would lock up a playoff spot for the Cowboys, a risk NBC can’t take if they have to make their pick before MNF. Giants-Vikings has the same pitfall, and if current scores hold the Vikings will have lost and won’t have a bye to play for.

Buffalo knocks off Denver, but it’s the other two games I’m watching for SNF/NFC purposes.

Atlanta knocks off Minnesota. That essentially locks up a playoff spot for them and puts the Bucs in big trouble, and it eliminates the Redskins. The Eagles MIGHT still be alive for a playoff spot, as they would still be only a half game behind the Cowboys and Bucs. Beat the Boys and hope for a Bucs loss, and the Eagles are in the playoffs.

Philly making one last push – if they win this it would actually be worse for Cowboys-Eagles as the Eagles would be playing for nothing. They fail. But if the Bears win two straight it could render Cowboys-Eagles irrelevant by the end of the day. Two Bears wins put them at 10-6, and the best the Eagles could hope for is 9-6-1. We could see a Bears-Falcons-Cowboys three-way tie, though, and Cowboys would win the conference tiebreaker for the first spot.

Honestly, the Favre factor means Dolphins-Jets could be selected even if the NFL can select an NFC game. Especially if the Bears win on Monday Night and create the possibility that the Eagles won’t have anything to play for by Sunday night. With six losses, the Jets will still have something to play for even if the Patriots win next week. The Ravens could lose, and the Jets would have the conference games tiebreaker. Or the Ravens could win, and the Jets really would have nothing to play for. Giants-Vikings is probably out with the Vikings having no chance to steal the 2 seed, meaning the Giants will have nothing to play for no matter what happens tonight, and the Vikings will have nothing to play for if the Packers win Monday night.

Final prediction: Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets, but I would be far from surprised to see Cowboys-Eagles selected.

Actual selection: Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers. Huh? Either NBC and the NFL really don’t want to put the Dolphins on or they’re really scared about the game being rendered irrelevant for at least one team by game time. If the latter, we still don’t know if NBC could have selected an NFC game.

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch and Playoff Watch: Week 15

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NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with last season in mind):

  • Begins Sunday of Week 11
  • In effect during Weeks 11-17
  • Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
  • The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET. (Note: Last year, NBC listed a tentative game for Week 17; they are not doing so this year.)
  • The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
  • The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
  • The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night. (Note: Again, excluding Week 17.)
  • Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
  • NFL schedules all games.
  • Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
  • Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and could not protect any games Week 17 last year. Unless I find out otherwise, I’m assuming that’s still the case this year, especially with no tentative game listed Week 17, and that protections were scheduled after Week 4.
  • Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 4 post.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 17 (December 28 Playoff Positioning Watch):

  • Note that not only is there no longer an NBC tentative game, there’s no NFL Network game. Apparently the league learned their lesson from last year’s Patriots-Giants debacle.
  • AFC East: Jets (v. Miami)-Patriots (@Bills)-Dolphins three-way tie, Bills out.
  • AFC North: The Steelers and Ravens are the only two teams still in it, and the Ravens are out on a tiebreaker (lost to the Steelers both times).
  • AFC South: The Titans are running away with it, with the Colts the only other team with a shot, and they lose the common games tiebreaker.
  • AFC West: Chargers (v. Denver) hanging by the division tiebreaker, and the team they play is the division leader. Hmm. But again, the Chargers would need to win out and the Broncos lose out – but for that to matter, it only needs to happen this week.
  • AFC Wild Card: The Colts (v. Titans) and either the Ravens (v. Jacksonville) or one of the AFC East losers would get the nod if the season ended today. The AFC East losers are a game back. Texans hanging by a tiebreak, and would need the Ravens, Patriots, and eventual Dolphins-Jets loser to all lose two games. Jets would beat the Patriots in the divisional record tiebreaker, Dolphins-Patriots would come down to strength of victory or beyond. Texans can’t have Dolphins winning strength of victory because that would give Ravens head-to-head sweep; otherwise, Ravens conference record would eliminate the Texans anyway.
  • AFC Playoff Positioning Among Division Winners: Titans have the lead over the Steelers (v. Cleveland) for the , but only one game, and they play each other this week in a game that pretty much is for the unless the Steelers win that game, then lose the next week and the Titans win it. Steelers have a two-game lead for the over the eventual AFC East winner, and beat the Pats outright, and the other two have at least four conference losses each to Pittsburgh’s one.
  • NFC East: The Giants have a three-game lead over the Cowboys, with the Eagles out by half a game, and the Cowboys lose the common games tiebreaker.
  • NFC North: Vikings (v. NY Giants) lead, Bears (@Texans) a game back. If Bears lose to Packers on MNF it cinches the North for the Vikings by giving them the division tiebreaker, but they still need to tread lightly because their record against the NFC South loses them the common games tiebreaker.
  • NFC South: Panthers (@New Orleans) have a two-game lead over the Bucs (v. Oakland) and Falcons (v. St. Louis). All three season series split, all three division records would be 3-3, all three would have 7-1 records against other common opponents, Bucs and Falcons would both eliminate Panthers with better conference records.
  • NFC West: Cardinals clinched.
  • NFC Wild Card: Any two of the Bucs, Cowboys (@Philadelphia), or Falcons would get the nod if the season ended today. Eagles a half-game back, Bears a full game back, Redskins (@San Francisco) and Saints both hang on tiebreakers. If Bucs and Falcons both lose out, that would come down to strength of victory or beyond; Saints lost more than one game to the common opponents so they’re out. A Redskins-Cowboys tiebreaker scenario would involve the Cowboys losing to the Eagles and the Redskins beating them, putting the Eagles at 9-6-1 compared to the Cowboys’ and Redskins’ 9-7 records and forcing the Bucs and Falcons to both lose out for the Redskins to have a remote shot, although they would win the conference tiebreaker over Dallas and whoever won the strength of victory tiebreaker between the Bucs and Falcons. I don’t have time to consider how the Bears would factor into the tiebreakers.
  • NFC Playoff Positioning Among Division Winners: Giants and Panthers tied, so this weekend’s Sunday night game is for the seed. The loser of that game currently holds a two-game edge over the Vikings, who beat Carolina and would have to beat New York.
  • Analysis: Through next week, there have been 22 games that would have been on Fox aired instead on one of the three primetime partners, compared to 19 for CBS. A recent dispute between Newsday columnist Neil Best and Dallas Morning News columnist Barry Horn may have brought to light yet another rule I haven’t accounted for: the idea that the NFL must take a game from CBS this week. It makes no sense that this would only come to light now, as it necessitates only two or three balances: 21-21, or 22-20 one way or the other. For a game that matters in terms of putting both teams in the playoffs, Dolphins-Jets, Cowboys-Eagles, and depending on what happens this weekend, Chargers-Broncos would seem to be the smart plays, and Cowboys-Eagles would be a shoo-in if this alleged rule were in place. If NBC just wants good teams, Giants-Vikings and a replay of Colts-Titans are also in play; if things break down right next week, Giants-Vikings may be a more impressive NFC game. Based on behavior last year, if NBC has to select an AFC game Colts-Titans is very promising, assuming the Colts don’t find themselves in the playoffs already, and if the Pats win this week NBC may run scared from them potentially winning again next week (even though a tiebreak might still be in play) and run to the potentially more attractive Colts-Titans game. I’ll live-blog on Sunday again this year, but I probably won’t be able to catch another announcement on “FNIA”.

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 14

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NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with last season in mind):

  • Begins Sunday of Week 11
  • In effect during Weeks 11-17
  • Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
  • The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET. (Note: Last year, NBC listed a tentative game for Week 17; they are not doing so this year.)
  • The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
  • The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
  • The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night. (Note: Again, excluding Week 17.)
  • Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
  • NFL schedules all games.
  • Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
  • Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and could not protect any games Week 17 last year. Unless I find out otherwise, I’m assuming that’s still the case this year, especially with no tentative game listed Week 17, and that protections were scheduled after Week 4.
  • Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 4 post.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 16):

  • Selected game: Dallas @ Washington.

Week 12 (November 23):

  • Selected game: Indianapolis @ San Diego.

Week 13 (November 30):

  • Selected game: Chicago @ Minnesota.

Week 14 (December 7):

  • Selected game: Washington @ Baltimore.

Week 15 (December 14):

  • Selected game: NY Giants @ Dallas.

Week 16 (December 21):

  • Selected game: Carolina @ NY Giants.

Week 17 (December 28 Playoff Positioning Watch):

  • Note that not only is there no longer an NBC tentative game, there’s no NFL Network game. Apparently the league learned their lesson from last year’s Patriots-Giants debacle.
  • AFC East: Jets-Patriots-Dolphins three-way tie, Bills two back. The Pats and Bills play each other, as do the Dolphins and Jets.
  • AFC North: The Steelers and Ravens are the only two teams still in it; Steelers have a one-game edge. The Steelers play the Browns while the Ravens play the Jags.
  • AFC South: The Titans are running away with it, with the Colts the only other team with a shot, and they lose the common games tiebreaker.
  • AFC West: Chargers hanging by the division tiebreaker, and play division leader Denver. Hmm. But again, the Chargers would need to win out and the Broncos lose out.
  • AFC Wild Card: The Ravens and Colts would get the nod if the season ended today. The AFC East losers are a game back. Dolphins-Jets and Titans-Colts are the main AFC contenders. Bills and Texans also waiting in the wings, Chargers need a tiebreaker.
  • NFC East: The Giants have a three-game lead over the Cowboys, with the Eagles out by half a game, and the Cowboys lose the common games tiebreaker. The Giants play the Vikings.
  • NFC North: Vikings lead, Bears a game back, Packers hanging on by a tiebreaker. The Bears play the Texans and the Packers play the Lions, but the Vikings play the Giants.
  • NFC South: Every team still in it, with the Panthers leading, the Bucs one back, the Falcons two, and the Saints hanging on by a tiebreaker. The Panthers play the Saints, but Tampa Bay plays the Raiders and the Falcons play the Rams.
  • NFC West: The Cardinals are running away with it and the 49ers lost both games to them so they’re out. Cardinals play the Seahawks. Hardly must-see TV.
  • NFC Wild Card: The Bucs and either the Cowboys or Falcons would get the nod if the season ended today. Eagles a half-game back, Redskins, Bears, Saints a full game back. Packers and 49ers need a tiebreak. Giants-Vikings, Cowboys-Eagles, and Panthers-Saints are strong games, but that may be it in the NFC and the last one could be fading. Those could be competitive games for the NBC pick, though.

Time set for Golden Bowl Selection Show, for real this time, plus Random Internet Discovery

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And it’s a doozy: 6 AM PT tomorrow morning. I was hoping I could get it in at 6 PM PT tonight, after one of my finals, but I got Distracted ™ and had no chance of getting set up before 6 anyway. I pretty much know two of the first-round matchups at this point, so I only need to finalize the remaining six games, and could work late into the night to do so. (The first stage of the selection process worked pretty much as I expected, with four at-larges being fairly obvious and the fifth being a head-scratcher of relative mediocrity. Ohio State fans may be somewhat disappointed with their seed though.) All eight games will be revealed, at once, at 6 AM PT.

UPDATE: Okay, forget that, it’s delayed again, an unexpected issue came up and I’m in no mood to write it anyway, no later than 2 PM PT.

Also, in place of having a webcomic post tonight, I’m giving you the Random Internet Discovery a day early, with more weird, wild, and wacky art than you can shake a stick at.

The timing of NBC’s Panthers-Giants-to-Sunday-Night announcement is curious. Was NBC and the NFL going to go with some other game if the Bucs had won on Monday night?

Last-Minute Remarks on SNF Week 16 picks

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Week 16 (December 21):

  • Tentative game: San Diego @ Tampa Bay
  • Prospects: 5-8 @ 9-3? Good lord is this game lopsided.
  • Likely protections: Panthers (9-3)-Giants (11-2) or Eagles (7-5-1)-Redskins (7-6) (FOX) and Steelers-Titans (CBS).
  • “That’s my story and I’m sticking to it”‘s protections: Eagles-Redskins (FOX) and Steelers-Titans (CBS)
  • Other possible games mentioned on Wednesday’s Watch and their records: Cardinals (8-5)-Patriots (8-5), Bills (6-7)-Broncos (8-5), Falcons (8-5)-Vikings (8-5).
  • Impact of Monday Night Football: Affects both the tentative game and the most likely flex game.
  • Analysis: If Panthers-Giants isn’t protected it’s in. If it is, the Falcons did what the other games needed and lost, and things broke down just right for Cardinals-Patriots and Falcons-Vikings to pull even. I give the edge to Falcons-Vikings because they’re more attractive and the Cardinals have locked up the NFC West, so Falcons-Vikings has the edge that both teams have playoff implications.
  • Final prediction: Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants, or if that game is protected, Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings.
  • Current situation: No announcement yet to my knowledge, which is telling. Either NBC is waiting on tonight’s game to tell them whether to go with the Falcons (for whatever reason), or NBC is willing to go someplace other than Panthers-Giants if the Panthers lose.

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 13

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NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with last season in mind):

  • Begins Sunday of Week 11
  • In effect during Weeks 11-17
  • Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
  • The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET. (Note: Last year, NBC listed a tentative game for Week 17; they are not doing so this year.)
  • The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
  • The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
  • The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night. (Note: Again, excluding Week 17.)
  • Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
  • NFL schedules all games.
  • Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
  • Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and could not protect any games Week 17 last year. Unless I find out otherwise, I’m assuming that’s still the case this year, especially with no tentative game listed Week 17, and that protections were scheduled after Week 4.
  • Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 4 post.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 16):

  • Selected game: Dallas @ Washington.

Week 12 (November 23):

  • Selected game: Indianapolis @ San Diego.

Week 13 (November 30):

  • Selected game: Chicago @ Minnesota.

Week 14 (December 7):

  • Selected game: Washington @ Baltimore.

Week 15 (December 14):

  • Selected game: NY Giants @ Dallas.

Week 16 (December 21):

  • Tentative game: San Diego @ Tampa Bay
  • Prospects: 4-8 @ 9-3? Good lord is this game lopsided.
  • Likely protections: Panthers-Giants or Eagles-Redskins (FOX) and Steelers-Titans (CBS).
  • “That’s my story and I’m sticking to it”‘s protections: Eagles-Redskins (FOX) and Steelers-Titans (CBS)
  • Other possible games: Cardinals-Patriots is still strong and Bills-Broncos and Falcons-Vikings are still at least close. If TMS&ISTI is right all this is moot because the Panthers and Giants would have to collapse to give up the spot (the Panthers did lose this week), but if it was Panthers-Giants protected Eagles-Redskins would be in it as well. Even if Panthers-Giants had been protected, Cardinals-Patriots is a strong enough game it probably would have gotten the spot anyway.
  • Analysis: If Panthers-Giants isn’t protected I might as well pick it now. If it is, there are four games that are very close, and Falcons-Vikings is probably the leader in the clubhouse at 8-4 v. 7-5. Cardinals-Patriots is next at 7-5 @ 7-5, then Eagles-Redskins at 6-5-1 @ 7-5, then Bills-Broncos at 6-6 @ 7-5. For any of these games to have a shot, Panthers-Giants must be protected and the Falcons, at the very least, must lose. A Falcons loss, a Vikings win, and wins by the Cardinals and Patriots would put those two games on even footing; Bills-Broncos needs a perfect scenario (Falcons and Vikings losses, Bills and Broncos wins), but Eagles-Redskins might get close enough to pull a pretty good case that the Eagles should have won “The Tie” and the accounting should be even.

Week 17 (December 28 Playoff Positioning Watch):

  • Note that not only is there no longer an NBC tentative game, there’s no NFL Network game. Apparently the league learned their lesson from last year’s Patriots-Giants debacle.
  • AFC East: Anyone’s game. All four teams within two games of one another, with the Jets leading, the Pats and Dolphins a game back, and the Bills a game behind that. The Pats and Bills play each other, as do the Dolphins and Jets.
  • AFC North: The Steelers and Ravens are the only two teams still in it; Steelers have a one-game edge. The Steelers play the Browns while the Ravens play the Jags.
  • AFC South: The Titans are running away with it, with the Colts the only other team with a shot. No matter the standings, if the Titans remain undefeated Titans-Colts could be a lock.
  • AFC West: Chiefs out, Raiders hanging on by a tiebreaker. Broncos and Chargers the main contenders, and play each other. Hmm. However, the gap is three games, advantage Broncos, and the Raiders are only a game behind the Chargers.
  • AFC Wild Card: The Ravens and Colts would get the nod if the season ended today. The Dolphins and Patriots are a game back, and the Bills are waiting in the wings. Both East games and Titans-Colts are the main AFC contenders. Raiders, Chiefs, Bengals out, Chargers, Jags, Browns need a tiebreaker.
  • NFC East: The Giants have a three-game lead over the Cowboys, with the Redskins hanging on by a tiebreaker and the Eagles out by half a game. The Giants play the Vikings while the Cowboys face the Eagles.
  • NFC North: Vikings lead, Bears a game back, Packers two, Lions out. The Bears play the Texans and the Packers play the Lions, but the Vikings play the Giants.
  • NFC South: Every team still in it, with the Panthers and Bucs leading, the Falcons a game back, and the Saints three back. The Panthers play the Saints, but Tampa Bay plays the Raiders and the Falcons play the Rams.
  • NFC West: The Cardinals are running away with it and the 49ers are the only other team with a shot. Cardinals play the Seahawks. Hardly must-see TV.
  • NFC Wild Card: The Panthers-Bucs loser and either the Cowboys or Falcons would get the nod if the season ended today. Redskins a game back, Eagles 1.5 back, Bears and Saints waiting in the wings. Packers three back, 49ers need a tiebreak. Giants-Vikings, Cowboys-Eagles, and Panthers-Saints are strong games, but that may be it in the NFC and the last one could be fading. Those could be competitive games for the NBC pick, though.