NFL

NFL Week 5 SuperPower Rankings

News and notes from the SP rankings:

-If the Pats show even a hint of weakness against the Cowboys, No. 1 will go to the Colts. Dr. Z’s SI rankings joined CBS and Fox in ranking the Colts ahead of the Pats this week, leaving the Colts just two more turncoats shy of taking over the top spot in the Consensus Rankings.

-The Chargers are the latest team to be overrated for beating the Broncos.

-You may recall I picked two upsets last week: the Chiefs over the Jags and the Dolphins over the Texans. Neither happened; the only dog I picked to win that actually managed to do that was the Chargers over the Broncos, which caused the rankings to finally put the Broncos in a more correct position. I missed the other two technical upsets, Carolina over New Orleans and the Bears over the Packers, but went 10-for-14.

This week, my upset special may not seem to have a big enough gap in the Consensus Rankings to qualify. I don’t agree that the tight pull-out over the Bills shows that the Cowboys have the stuff to “overcome adversity”. I think it shows weaknesses other teams can exploit. That said… you can probably see where this is going. That game has probably put that little seed in the minds of the Patriots players: This is an easy one. Oh, and the game is in Dallas. That counts for something.

This week’s College Football Rankings are coming out tomorrow.

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 4

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

Last year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. CBS and Fox were able to protect one game every week each but had to leave one week each unprotected and had to submit their protections after only four weeks.

Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night, and by all appearances, CBS and Fox can’t protect anything. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site:

  • Begins Sunday of Week 11
  • In effect during Weeks 11-17
  • Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
  • The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
  • The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
  • The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
  • The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
  • Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
  • NFL schedules all games.
  • Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 18):

  • Tentative game: Chicago @ Seattle
  • Prospects: Uh-oh. Seattle is 3-1 but Chicago is 1-3.
  • Other possible games: Redskins @ Cowboys; Panthers @ Packers. That the NFL’s biggest rivalry did not merit a preliminary pick on Sunday night does not bode well; however, either could prove a very, very significant matchup. Panthers-Packers is currently riding on how the Panthers do the next few games. Look out for dark horses like Steelers-Jets and Browns-Ravens.

Week 12 (November 25):

  • Tentative game: Philadelphia @ New England
  • Prospects: In trouble. The Eagles need to get off the schnozz to avoid getting flexed out.
  • Other possible games: Could we see Bucs-Redskins here? It’s a 5-11 matchup in the latest NBC Power Rankings. It all depends on whether both teams are for real. Too many teams have other commitments on Thanksgiving or Monday night to really endorse any other games.

Week 13 (December 2):

  • Tentative game: Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh
  • Prospects: Very much in trouble. The Steelers loss hurts itself, but the Bungles look dismal.
  • Other possible games: Jaguars-Colts, Seahawks-Eagles (though looking less and less likely), and a true dark horse: Texans-Titans

Week 14 (December 9):

  • Tentative game: Indianapolis @ Baltimore
  • Prospects: Alarm bells going off. If the Ravens continue to disappoint this could be flexed out.
  • Other possible games: Steelers-Patriots was mentioned last week and still looks very strong. But don’t count out Cowboys-Lions, Bucs-Texans, or Cardinals-Seahawks.

Week 15 (December 16):

  • Tentative game: Washington @ NY Giants
  • Prospects: Better but still not promising. The Giants need to keep up the hot pace. The exciting finish of their last game works in their favor.
  • Other possible games: Eagles-Cowboys could be in trouble if the Eagles keep struggling. Jaguars-Steelers now looks to be the favorite. Seahawks-Panthers remains in it but has its own problems.

Week 16 (December 23):

  • Tentative game: Tampa Bay @ San Francisco
  • Prospects: Could be better than might have been thought before the season. However, it is a 5-vs.-16 matchup in the NBC Sports Power Rankings, so it could be lopsided.
  • Other possible games: Texans-Colts, Packers-Bears (in trouble but an appealing matchup regardless of respective records), Ravens-Seahawks (current tentative favorite) – with Jets-Titans a potential dark horse, though one that’s fading.

Week 17 (December 30):

  • Tentative game: Kansas City @ NY Jets
  • Prospects: The Chiefs may prove to be better than anticipated, but unless the Jets follow suit this could turn out to be a terrible matchup, especially given the competition.
  • Other possible games: Steelers-Ravens, Titans-Colts, Cowboys-Redskins, Packers-Lions, with Panthers-Bucs and Jaguars-Texans dark horses. All of the four favorites involve teams currently 12th or better in the NBC rankings. Playoff positioning watch begins after Week 9.

NFL Week 4 SuperPower Rankings

Were they overrated, or were the teams they faced underrated? Were they underrated, or were the teams they faced overrated?

My Consensus Power Rankings, like it or not, have two fatal flaws: an over-emphasis on record and an over-emphasis on the preseason. Like college football polls, come to think of it.

Because the comments I stick on the consensus rankings are based on the comments the sports sites make, I can’t make comments on whether they’re right. But let’s look at all 32 teams in the order of the Consensus Rankings (or, for the purposes of this post, the top 8) and see if they’re overrated, possibly underrated, or neither. Potential upset picks (which I’m 4-0 on) loom.

Patriots: 4-0 against the Jets, Chargers, Bills, and Bengals. All four are 1-3. Overrated.
Colts: 4-0 against the Saints, Titans, Texans, and Broncos. The wins over Tennessee and Houston were on the road and were struggles, the other two were romps. Nawlins is 0-3, Denver is 2-2 but both wins were over teams thought to be awful. As for the Titans and Texans, both have only two wins apiece. The Texans just lost to freakin’ Atlanta. Overrated.
Cowboys: 4-0 against the Giants, Dolphins, Bears, and Rams. The Dolphins and Rams suck, the Bears might be overrated at 1-3, and the Giants are 2-2 with their only two losses against unbeatens. Not coincidentially, the Boys’ closest win is over the Giants at home. We know Cowboys > Giants and Packers > Giants, but we don’t know, really, where the Giants stand.
Packers: 4-0 against the Eagles, Giants, Chargers, and Vikings. All except the Giants are 1-3 (the Chargers’ loss to KC shows the loss to GB was more them sucking than the Packers being good), but the win over the Giants – in the Meadowlands! – was a romp. So, Packers > Cowboys. On the other hand, the victories over Philly and San Diego were by a touchdown or less, so they’re still overrated.
Steelers: Wins against Buffalo, 2-2 Cleveland, and 2-2 San Fran. Latter two were romps. Loss to Arizona, also 2-2, by a touchdown, in the desert.
Seahawks: Wins against 3-1 but overplaying Tampa Bay, 1-3 Cincy in a tight one at home, and 2-2 San Fran in a romp in San Fran. Loss to Arizona. Damn near impossible to read.
Titans: Somewhere between 2-1 Jacksonville (#8) and Indy, both teams with good records. Of course, Jacksonville’s two wins are over Atlanta and overrated Denver, so who knows where they stand? And could New Orleans still be better than their 0-3 start against three teams in the top 10 of the Consensus Rankings, overrated as Tampa Bay is up there? More expertise like this going into the picks for this week after I slip to 7-7 picking mostly favorites. (But both underdogs I picked won. Whoda thunk that? I mean, 9 underdogs winning?)

As promised last week, my upset special is Kansas City over Jacksonville, taking a cue from KC’s shocking upset. As if the Jags’ poor out-of-bye record wasn’t enough, it’s at Arrowhead. A more daring upset is needing-a-win Miami against a potentially over-performing Texans squad.

Upset Special of Week 4

The web site is updated with the lineal title changes and the Week 3 SuperPower Rankings, which reveals teams that really divide the rankings, with some having them at #9 while others have them in the 20s. The Panthers are 7th on CBS and 21st in Cole’s Yahoo rankings; the Bucs are 19th in ESPN and Robinson’s Yahoo rankings but 9th in NBC; the Eagles are 9th in Cole and 21st in NBC.

The Colts merged the NFL lineal titles this week and play a Broncos team next that I think is overrated. The loss to Jacksonville should have exposed them – they should not have been anywhere near the top after such close wins over two teams everyone thinks are awful – but they’re still no lower than 12th in any list. People are thinking it says more about the Jags, who move up 10 spots to 8th in the SuperPower Rankings. Jacksonville has a bye this week, but I just might pick the Chiefs against them. Which brings me to my picks, where I’m 3-0 on upset specials. I thought this one was fairly obvious – just about any team could have upset the Broncs the way they were playing. Evidently not everyone agreed.

This week I’m picking the #20 Lions over the #11 Bears. The Bears are facing problems beyond the QB position. If the offense can’t get going, even with Griese, the Lions offense could overpower the vaunted Bears defense. All my other picks are here.

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 3

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

Last year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. CBS and Fox were able to protect one game every week each but had to leave one week each unprotected and had to submit their protections after only four weeks.

Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night, and by all appearances, CBS and Fox can’t protect anything. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site:

  • Begins Sunday of Week 11
  • In effect during Weeks 11-17
  • Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
  • The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
  • The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
  • The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
  • The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
  • Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
  • NFL schedules all games.
  • Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 18):

  • Tentative game: Chicago @ Seattle
  • Prospects: Cloudy, but looking promising. Seattle is off to a decent start but Chicago could start stinking up the joint.
  • Other possible games: Redskins @ Cowboys; Panthers @ Packers. That the NFL’s biggest rivalry did not merit a preliminary pick on Sunday night does not bode well; however, either could prove a very, very significant matchup.

Week 12 (November 25):

  • Tentative game: Philadelphia @ New England
  • Prospects: Potentially appealing. It all depends on whether the Eagles continue in the mold of their recent win or their first two losses.
  • Other possible games: All the other teams in NBCSports.com’s top five in the power rankings have other commitments on Thanksgiving or Monday night. Ravens-Chargers, Broncos-Bears, and the dark horse in Bucs-Redskins could all be spoilers, but look for this to stay a McNabb-Brady matchup.

Week 13 (December 2):

  • Tentative game: Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh
  • Prospects: Downright mixed. The Steelers have started promisingly, but the Bengals have struggled enough coming out of the gate that this could look very lopsided.
  • Other possible games: Jaguars-Colts, Seahawks-Eagles, and a true dark horse: Texans-Titans.

Week 14 (December 9):

  • Tentative game: Indianapolis @ Baltimore
  • Prospects: Very good, with both teams out to hot starts. However, the Ravens aren’t quite Super Bowl contenders, so Steelers-Patriots could well pull the upset.

Week 15 (December 16):

  • Tentative game: Washington @ NY Giants
  • Prospects: Bad. The Giants need to pick up quickly to avoid being flexed out.
  • Other possible games: Jaguars-Steelers and Seahawks-Panthers are dark horses, but look for Eagles-Cowboys to be flexed into this spot.

Week 16 (December 23):

  • Tentative game: Tampa Bay @ San Francisco
  • Prospects: Could be better than might have been thought before the season. However, it is a 9-vs.-16 matchup in the NBC Sports Power Rankings.
  • Other possible games: Texans-Colts, Packers-Bears, Ravens-Seahawks – with Jets-Titans a potential dark horse.

Week 17 (December 30):

  • Tentative game: Kansas City @ NY Jets
  • Prospects: Horrid. Two 1-2 teams? They need to get better fast.
  • Other possible games: Steelers-Ravens, Titans-Colts, Cowboys-Redskins, Panthers-Bucs, with Packers-Lions a dark horse. Playoff positioning watch begins after Week 9.

Enter NBC Sports, Exit Yahoo Sports?

NBCSports.com finally joined the power ranking party, so I will be kicking out the MSNBC/ColdHardFootballFacts.com rankings when I release the new SuperPower Rankings tomorrow.

I’m tempted to kick out the Yahoo rankings as well… on the one hand, they’re a duo of rankings, and I have a policy of always having an odd number of rankings, to minimize ties. Their duplicity was the sole reason I included the MSNBC rankings in the first place; the addition of NBCSports.com rankings renders them downright superfluous. On the other, I did include the Yahoo rankings for the first few weeks; to get rid of them would quite possibly reduce the reliability of the whole rankings. And they are among the 8 major multi-sports web sites, and according to Alexa rankings, among the top 5 among those 8, unlike upstart NBCSports.com.

Only one way for me to be sure: a new Da Blog Poll! Scroll down to the new poll and let your voice be heard for the next week. (Unless I get a flurry of votes to start, the Yahoo rankings will be included for the Week 3 Consensus Power Rankings.)

NFL Week 2 SuperPower Rankings

New England dominated the Chargers on Sunday, but clearly it hurt the Chargers more than it helped the Patriots.

Like college football polls, people don’t like dropping teams when they don’t lose. New England barely took any spots away from the Colts, only passing them in MSNBC and SI, despite the Colts struggling against the Titans. However, the margin between the Colts and Patriots was so thin last week that it’s enough for the Pats to pass the Colts in the SuperPower Rankings, with added help from passing the Chargers in CBS for #2 and breaking the tie in USA Today.

Meanwhile, the Chargers slip after being the only other team in the top three in every single ranking before the season and after Week 1. By itself, having the offense struggle against the mighty Bears D and falling to the Patriots shouldn’t reflect too badly on the Chargers, and indeed the Chargers don’t fall that far (no fall in Fox and only a one-spot dip in ESPN), but the Chargers didn’t look like the third-best team in the nation against the Patriots. They fall to sixth in four rankings, eighth in the SI rankings, and fifth in the two Yahoo rankings, with the Steelers (in perhaps a bit of a hasty jump given the quality of their opposition), Broncos (also dubious given their reliance on last-second field goals against lowly Buffalo and Oakland), and Cowboys (the new #3) being the chief beneficiaries. The Chargers should be able to take a breather and allow people to get a true gauge of the state of their offense against the Packers.

Outside the top six, the Bears and Ravens remain strong while the surprises at 2-0 – the Packers, Niners, Texans, and Lions – divide the group. The first three are generally thought to be for real; the Lions, who have defeated two lousy teams in close games, aren’t. The Packers have the benefit of three of the four teams directly ahead of them in last week’s SuperPower Rankings losing, which basically guaranteed them a ticket to the Top 10. The Texans round out the Top 10 with the Niners close behind. One really divisive team is the Cardinals; three lists have them 15th or 14th, five within a spot of 20th, and one of the Yahoo lists has them as low as 24th.

The Bengals take a massive slip after their D played awful against the Browns. Either the D is going to be a massive seesaw from week to week or their strong performance Week 1 was more due to an iffy Ravens offense (they did lose McNair in the middle of the game). Which in turn, doesn’t reflect well on the Jets D. The Seahawks also fumbled away their Top 10 placement this week, setting up a game between teams that need recoveries from surprising losses, and the Saints take a big tumble after falling to lowly Tampa Bay – an upset I called, by the way.

At the bottom, the Browns’ win leaves the Falcons with the bottom spot all to themselves, although the Chiefs may have something to say about that. The Chiefs’ drop is mostly attributable to a number of surprises from the bottom; in addition to Cleveland, the Bucs won and the Raiders were a dubious timeout away from doing the same. The Dolphins and Bills also have to curse their former fellow cellar-dwellers, including Arizona’s stunning upset of the Seahawks.

Read the complete Consensus Power Rankings through Week 2 of NFL action here.

Football Lineal Title Update

The Football Hub is updated with all the wonderful lineal title changes of the past week. On the NFL side, Houston’s defeat of Carolina sets up a lineal title unification bout when the Colts face the Texans this coming week. Both of the college football titles that changed hands last week change hands again this week, and the 2004 Utah title is back in the hands of the team that created it.

Florida faces Ole Miss this coming week, while Utah faces UNLV, Ohio State faces Northwestern, and in the most likely title change (which isn’t saying much), LSU faces South Carolina. The 2004 Auburn Title is two weeks away from a potential unification with the Princeton Title; LSU needs to survive SC and Tulane, while Florida needs to survive Mississippi and Auburn. With Auburn’s struggles, SC is the most likely upset, but LSU is so strong it might not matter.

While my College Football Rankings won’t be released until this coming week, I can tell you one interesting fact about how they’re shaking out. Notre Dame is currently infamously embroiled in futility, and had I released the college football rankings this week, they would place dead last. Ouch.

Your Hub for All Things Football

I’ve added a new section to the web site – Morgan Wick Sports – that will serve as a home base for the Lineal Titles, the SuperPower Rankings, and the College Football Rankings. This week’s SuperPower Rankings are now available there. Go to morganwick.freehostia.com/sports/football.

The NFL lineal title history is now located there as well, and the ATH Drinking Game is now here.