NFL

Well, now I’m not sure how much I should have relied on Awful Announcing for the protections not provided by Michael Hiestand, because AA pulled a brain freeze earlier this week and claimed there were protected games Week 17. Notwithstanding that that is expressly prohibited, it would also violate the limit on the number of protectable games – that or AA is forgetting his own previous post listing the protected games!

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

Last year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. CBS and Fox were able to protect one game every week each but had to leave one week each unprotected and had to submit their protections after only four weeks.

Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site:

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Two other rules were established earlier: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and can’t protect any games Week 17 this year.
• Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five; the Pats and Cowboys already have six) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 18):

• Selected game: New England @ Buffalo.

Week 12 (November 25):

• Selected game: Philadelphia @ New England.

Week 13 (December 2):

• Selected game: Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh.

Week 14 (December 9):

• Selected game: Indianapolis @ Baltimore.

Week 15 (December 16):

• Selected game: Washington @ NY Giants.

Week 16 (December 23):

• Selected game: Washington @ Minnesota.

Week 17 (December 30):

• Tentative game: Kansas City @ NY Jets
• Prospects: Awful. This has the best chance of losing its spot.
• Other possible games/Playoff Positioning Watch:
• AFC East: Patriots clinched.
• AFC North: Two-horse race. The Steelers are leading but the Browns are just a game back. Bengals and Ravens out. Steelers-Ravens out along with the Ravens’ playoff chances.
• AFC South: The Colts are now two ahead of the Jaguars and the Titans and Texans are both out. Titans-Colts can still excite (see below) but is now vulnerable to an NFC game.
• AFC West: Chargers two ahead of the Broncos and the Chiefs and Raiders are both out. The Chargers are playing the Raiders; the Broncos, the Vikings. Not looking likely.
• AFC Wild Card: The Jags and Browns would get the nod if the season ended today, with the Titans and Bills a game back, the latter playing the Eagles. The Texans and Broncos are two back. Note the Jags-Texans matchup, probably the only serious competitor to Titans-Colts in the AFC. As the Ravens fade, Steelers-Ravens is probably out. Bengals only other team in playoff contention, and only because I’m too lazy to check the tiebreaker.
• NFC East: Cowboys clinched.
• NFC North: Packers clinched.
• NFC South: Bucs up two on Saints, and Panthers would come down to tiebreaker with the Panthers still with one to play against the Bucs. Guess what week that is? Saints playing Da Bears.
• NFC West: Seahawks’ lead over Cardinals comes down to tiebreaker.
• NFC Wild Card: Giants and Vikings would get the nod if the season ended today. Packers-Lions now fading with NFC North locked up and Lions on a losing streak. Vikings-Broncos becomes a minor dark horse. Redskins, Lions, Saints, and Cardinals are all a game back at 6-7, lending a little credence to Packers-Lions, and the Eagles, Bears, and Panthers all have outside shots at 5-8, lending a little credence to Bills-Eagles, Saints-Bears, and Bucs-Panthers. All three of the other teams are at 3-10 and out.

Week 16 (December 23):

• Tentative game: Tampa Bay @ San Francisco
• Prospects: Very problematic, even with the Bucs’ success, which just makes it look lopsided. Tell me NBC and the NFL won’t settle for 8-5 v. 3-10.
• Protected games according to AA: Texans-Colts (CBS) and Packers-Bears (FOX).
• Other possible games mentioned on Wednesday’s Watch and their records: Lions (6-7) v. Chiefs (4-9); Giants (9-4) v. Bills (7-6); Ravens (4-9) v. Seahawks (9-4); Redskins (6-7) v. Vikings (7-6); Eagles (5-8) v. Saints (5-7); Browns (8-5) v. Bengals (5-8).
• Impact of Monday Night Football: The Saints can conceivably improve to 6-7 with a win, but it would still lag behind Skins-Vikings and Giants-Bills.
• Analysis: Not only does Giants-Bills benefit from the Bills winning, it also benefits from not looking as lopsided as I originally thought. Skins-Vikings is the only other halfway decent game.
• Final prediction: New York Giants @ Buffalo Bills.
• Actual selection: Washington Redskins @ Minnesota Vikings. I take two things from this. One is that NBC and the NFL did see Giants-Bills as being awfully lopsided. Another is that they may see the Vikings as speeding ahead a little, since they’ve been on fire of late. But I might want to discount both. Selecting the Giants would have had no effect on Week 17, since the Giants are on NFL Network that week, but it would have kept NBC from selecting any other team with five primetime appearances. Only three teams fall into that category, but they include the Colts, who have a game very much in the running on that night.

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

Last year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. CBS and Fox were able to protect one game every week each but had to leave one week each unprotected and had to submit their protections after only four weeks.

Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site:

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Two other rules were established earlier: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and can’t protect any games Week 17 this year.
• Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five; the Pats and Cowboys already have six) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 18):

• Selected game: New England @ Buffalo.

Week 12 (November 25):

• Selected game: Philadelphia @ New England.

Week 13 (December 2):

• Selected game: Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh.

Week 14 (December 9):

• Selected game: Indianapolis @ Baltimore.

Week 15 (December 16):

• Selected game: Washington @ NY Giants.

Week 16 (December 23):

• Tentative game: Tampa Bay @ San Francisco
• Prospects: Very problematic, even with the Bucs’ success, which just makes it look lopsided. Tell me NBC and the NFL won’t settle for 8-4 v. 3-9.
• Protected games according to AA: Texans-Colts (CBS) and Packers-Bears (FOX).
• Other possible games: There aren’t a lot of attractive matchups this week. Lions-Chiefs is probably out, at 6-6 v. 4-8, and as the Bills fall back to reality Giants-Bills, at 6-6 v. 8-4, is in trouble as well. Ravens-Seahawks? At 4-8 v. 8-4? Please. Skins-Vikings (5-7 v. 6-6 but likely to finish higher) might be the favorite now, and likely has an edge over Eagles-Saints (5-7 v. 5-7) for a number of reasons. At this point even Browns-Bengals has an outside shot at 7-5 v. 4-8.
• Prediction: A lot depends on the lopsidedness factor and how much it comes into play. If it doesn’t look for Giants-Bills to get in with a Buffalo win. If the NFL cared avout the competitiveness of the game Skins-Vikings might have a better shot. But while there are weak matchups here there are better ones than what NBC might think it had to settle for. For Giants-Bills to be beaten, a few things needs to happen; a Bills loss woyld be a start. Skins-Vikings needs a Skins win, but that combined with a Vikings win and Bills loss might make it safe. This one could be wide open in many ways. Hard to read; this will be telling about the NFL’s, and NBC’s, priorities.

Week 17 (December 30):

• Tentative game: Kansas City @ NY Jets
• Prospects: Awful. This has the best chance of losing its spot.
• Other possible games/Playoff Positioning Watch:
• AFC East: Patriots clinched.
• AFC North: Two-horse race. The Steelers are leading but the Browns are just a game back. The Browns can push Steelers-Ravens to primetime if they keep it close (likely) and the Ravens are in contention for a wild card (unlikely).
• AFC South: The Colts are now two ahead of the Jaguars and three ahead of the Titans. Titans-Colts can still excite (see below) but is now vulnerable to an NFC game.
• AFC West: Chargers two ahead of the Broncos and three ahead of the Chiefs and Raiders. The Chargers are playing the Raiders; the Broncos, the Vikings. Not looking likely.
• AFC Wild Card: The Jags and either the Browns or Titans would get the nod if the season ended today, with the Bills a game back, playing the Eagles. The Texans and Broncos are two back. Note the Jags-Texans matchup, probably the only serious competitor to Titans-Colts in the AFC. As the Ravens fade, Steelers-Ravens is probably out. Dolphins cannot make the playoffs and the Jets would come down to a tiebreaker.
• NFC East: Cowboys opening a big lead on the Giants. The Giants are on NFL Network and Dallas has too many primetime appearances. Philly and Washington are both out.
• NFC North: The Pack have opened up a lead large enough to put the Lions and Vikings down to tiebreakers. The Vikings lose that but the Lions still have one to play against the Packers – guess what week that is?
• NFC South: Bucs up three on Saints and Panthers. The Saints play the Bears, and Bucs-Panthers is fading. Falcons out.
• NFC West: Seahawks have opened up a two-game lead over the Cardinals. The former plays the Falcons while the latter plays the Rams. Niners and Rams out.
• NFC Wild Card: Giants and either the Lions, Vikings, or Cardinals would get the nod if the season ended today. Wild-card implications could lend enough credence to Packers-Lions for the Favre factor to take over from there and make it the favorite. Vikings-Broncos becomes a minor dark horse. Redskins, Eagles, Bears, Panthers, and Saints are all a game back at 5-7, which means all but three teams in the NFC are within a game of the playoffs (!), lending a little credence to Bills-Eagles, Saints-Bears, Vikings-Broncos, and Bucs-Panthers. All three of the other teams are at 3-9 but still mathematically in it.

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

Last year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. CBS and Fox were able to protect one game every week each but had to leave one week each unprotected and had to submit their protections after only four weeks.

Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site:

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Two other rules were established earlier: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and can’t protect any games Week 17 this year.
• Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five; the Pats and Cowboys already have six) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 18):

• Selected game: New England @ Buffalo.

Week 12 (November 25):

• Selected game: Philadelphia @ New England.

Week 13 (December 2):

• Selected game: Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh.

Week 14 (December 9):

• Selected game: Indianapolis @ Baltimore.

Week 15 (December 16):

• Tentative game: Washington @ NY Giants
• Prospects: At 5-6 v. 7-4, this looks vulnerable. Being in the same division as the Cowboys hurts as well, but these are both teams that have legit shots at the playoffs and the thrilling finish of their last meeting will help write the storyline.
• Protected games according to Awful Announcing: Jags-Steelers (CBS), Lions-Chargers (FOX).
• Other possible games: Seahawks-Panthers still has a chance but it pits 7-4 vs. 4-7. It needs help. Titans-Chiefs is probably out, looking even worse. Browns-Bills has the exact same pair of records as Redskins-Giants.
• Prediction: I see no way the Redskins and Giants don’t make it four straight tentative games kept.
• Final prediction: Washington Redskins @ New York Giants (no change).

Week 16 (December 23):

• Tentative game: Tampa Bay @ San Francisco
• Prospects: Very problematic, even with the Bucs’ success, which just makes it look lopsided.
• Protected games according to AA: Texans-Colts (CBS) and Packers-Bears (FOX).
• Other possible games: There aren’t a lot of attractive matchups this week. Lions-Chiefs is in trouble, and as the Bills fall back to reality Giants-Bills is having problems. Ravens-Seahawks? Please. Skins-Vikings might be the favorite now, but that means you can’t count out Eagles-Saints either. At this point even Browns-Bengals has an outside shot – the Bengals have a better record than the Niners and the Browns’ is the same as the Bucs’.

Week 17 (December 30):

• Tentative game: Kansas City @ NY Jets
• Prospects: Awful. This has the best chance of losing its spot.
• Other possible games/Playoff Positioning Watch:
  • AFC East: Patriots clinched.
  • AFC North: Every team is theoretically in it. The Steelers are leading but the Browns are just a game back. The Browns can push Steelers-Ravens to primetime if they keep it close – but it depends a lot more on what the ex-Browns do. Right now, this game isn’t looking great.
  • AFC South: The Colts are now just a game ahead of the Jaguars and three ahead of the Titans. Titans-Colts can still excite (see below) but is now vulnerable to an NFC game.
  • AFC West: Chargers a game ahead of the Broncos and two ahead of the Chiefs. The Chargers are playing the Raiders; the Broncos, the Vikings. Not looking likely. But the Raiders are mathematically still in it.
  • AFC Wild Card: The Jags and Browns would get the nod if the season ended today, with the Titans a game back. The Bills, Texans, and Broncos are two back, adding some luster to Bills-Eagles, but the Eagles need to hold up their end of the bargain. Note the Jags-Texans matchup, probably the only serious competitor to Titans-Colts in the AFC. As the Ravens fade, Steelers-Ravens is probably out. Dolphins cannot make the playoffs and the Jets would come down to a tiebreaker.
  • NFC East: Cowboys opening a big lead on the Giants. The Giants are on NFL Network and Dallas has too many primetime appearances. Philly and Washington are down to a tiebreaker. Both lost the first game but still have one to play against them Cowboys.
  • NFC North: Same as the East, except the Pack have another game’s lead over the Lions. Vikings out on tiebreak. Bears are down to tiebreak but won the first game and still have one to play.
  • NFC South: Bucs up two on Saints, three on Panthers. The Saints play the Bears, and Bucs-Panthers is fading. Falcons still mathematically in it.
  • NFC West: Seahawks opens up a two-game lead over the Cardinals. The former plays the Falcons while the latter plays the Rams. Niners still mathematically in it. Rams out on tiebreak.
  • NFC Wild Card: Giants and Lions would get the nod if the season ended today. Wild-card implications could lend enough credence to Packers-Lions for the Favre factor to take over from there and make it the favorite. Redskins, Eagles, Vikings, Bears, Saints, and Cardinals are all a game back at 5-6, which means all but four teams in the NFC are within a game of the playoffs (!), lending a little credence to Bills-Eagles, Saints-Bears, and Vikings-Broncos. Panthers still waiting in the wings as well.