NFL

I’ll be updating this post throughout the day and not creating any new posts. New changes:
-A Browns loss cinches up the division for the Steelers. And they’re losing at the moment.
-A Packers loss cinches up the #1 seed for the Cowboys. And they’re losing at the moment. Not even Favre love is likely to save NBC.
-The Panthers are out with a loss, so Bucs-Panthers is out on Sunday Night.
I’ll report on the results as they come in. Jags are beating the Raiders which could cinch up the 5 seed. Giants are beating the Bills which should cinch a playoff spot. Saints losing to the Eagles at home.

Bills have taken the lead over the Giants.

Giants got down to 4th and G on the 1 but could not score. That’s proving to be an interesting game.

Giants just got an INT return for a TD to retake the lead. The Bears look like they will relegate the Packers to a 2 seed.

Bears knock off the Packers, so the Cowboys and Packers have nothing to play for. That means next week’s game is meaningless enough that Favre might not play, meaning NBC might shy away from it. Titans-Colts may now be a virtual lock, assuming the Titans end the day still with a shot at the playoffs.

Giants have opened up a big lead and are probably playoff-bound. Bengals knocked off the Browns so the Steelers win the AFC North.

Jags beat Raiders. Here’s the AFC Playoff Picture:

• As mentioned, the Steelers win the AFC North.
• The win by the Jags and the loss by the Browns cinches up a 5 seed for the Jags. A Titans win ties them with the Browns for the 6 seed and likely cinches up Titans-Colts as the favorite, or at least top competitor with Packers-Lions.
• I doubt MNF really comes into play here, but the Steelers did win earlier in the week, so the Chargers are at risk of a 4 seed.

Giants over the Bills now official. Eagles defeat Saints. Here’s the NFC Playoff Picture:

• Giants win to move to 10-5 and lock up a playoff spot. Vikings still pending. Saints lose to move to 1.5 games back, and now desperately need the Redskins to win to even be able to come down to a tiebreaker. If Washington beats Minnesota, then both Washington and Minnesota lose Week 17, and the Saints win next week, then I believe everyone would have 8 losses and, as described in my previous Flex Scheduling Watch, the Saints would be plucked by the tiebreaker. But again, there is only one scenario in which the Saints move into the playoffs. Now if the Vikings win, they’re in.
• Dallas is now the 1, Green Bay the 2. Tampa Bay and Seattle are playing now for the 3, and the Bucs have just taken a 3-point lead.

Let’s move into the afternoon games.

Bucs behind in a tight one against the 49ers. Titans leading Jets, Seahawks demolishing Ravens.

Two games are very interesting, the Bucs and Titans games.

Jets are driving and attempting to come back.

TO on downs, then Titans pick up a first and they will keep their playoff hopes alive. Titans-Colts a good bet for next week on NBC.

Meanwhile Bucs are down against the 49ers. Not the way they want to enter the playoffs. Seahawks still leading big.

Seahawks win, and the Bucs go down despite a late comeback, so the Seahawks will get the 3.

In the AFC, Titans and Browns are tied for the final playoff spot. I’ve heard that the Titans would hold a tiebreaker over the Browns and thus would only need a win to get in. Of course, it’s against the Colts. This pick is very tenuous, and there’s still a chance that NBC will spring Brett Favre love on us, but there are two things against that: 1) The Packers are in the playoffs, so unlike last year this is not going to be Favre’s last game period, and 2) The Packers aren’t playing for anything, so expect Favre to get limited playing time.

Final prediction: Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts.

Actual selection: Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts (just announced on NBC itself).

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

Last year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. CBS and Fox were able to protect one game every week each but had to leave one week each unprotected and had to submit their protections after only four weeks.

Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site:

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Two other rules were established earlier: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and can’t protect any games Week 17 this year.
• Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five; the Pats and Cowboys already have six) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 17 (December 30):

• Tentative game: Kansas City @ NY Jets
• Prospects: Awful. This has the best chance of losing its spot.
• Other possible games/Playoff Positioning Watch:
• AFC East: Patriots clinched.
• AFC North: Steelers (@Baltimore) and Browns (v. San Francisco) tied. Bengals and Ravens out. Steelers hold tiebreaker by beating Browns twice.
• AFC South: Colts clinched due to tiebreaker.
• AFC West: Chargers clinched.
• AFC Wild Card: The Jags (@Houston) and the loser of Steelers-Browns would get the nod if the season ended today, with the Titans (@Indianapolis) a game back; the Titans and Jags split the season series and the scenario that ends with them tied gives the Titans the divisional tiebreaker. The Texans and Bills are two back; the Bills are out after losing to both the Steelers and Browns, but the Texans have lost only to the Browns, and got swept by Tennessee. If the Titans and Steelers lose out, the Browns win at least once, and the Texans win out, the Texans would still lose on a conference tiebreaker.
• AFC Playoff Positioning Among Division Winners: Patriots beat the Colts to cinch #1. Colts hold #2 outright. The other two division leaders, the Chargers (@Oakland) and the winner of Steelers-Browns, all have five losses each.
• NFC East: Cowboys clinched.
• NFC North: Packers clinched.
• NFC South: Bucs up two on Saints and swept the season series to get the tiebreaker. The trend of last-place teams taking the South the following year continues. Good news, Falcons fans!
• NFC West: Seahawks clinched.
• NFC Wild Card: Giants (vs. New England on NFL Network) and Vikings (@Denver) would get the nod if the season ended today. Redskins (v. Dallas, would result in too many primetime appearances for Cowboys) and Saints (@Chicago) one back. Lions, Panthers (@Tampa Bay), and Cardinals two back. Vikings and Lions split the season series and the Lions would have a better divisional record under the scenario that ends with them tied. But for the Vikings to lose out means the Redskins get at least one win, and Washington already beat Detroit. Carolina and New Orleans split the season series and would finish with identical division records as well in the scenario that ends with them tied. Against the AFC South, it’s NO 1-3, CAR 0-4; against the NFC West, NO 2-2, CAR 4-0, so Carolina wins the common-games tiebreaker. Several different scenarios are now possible if the Vikings go 0-2 and the Redskins go 1-1: Vikings-Redskins-Panthers, Vikings-Redskins-Cardinals, Vikings-Redskins-Saints (if the Saints go 1-1 and Carolina loses at least once), Vikings-Redskins-Panthers-Cardinals, and Vikings-Redskins-Saints-Cardinals. In addition to the Redskins’ victory over the Vikings in this scenario, Washington also beat the Cardinals, so they would be undefeated head-to-head. Carolina and New Orleans both beat Arizona as well. As no head-to-head sweep is possible except in a Vikings-Redskins-Cardinals situation, we go to conference records: MIN 6-5 (would go to 6-6); WAS 5-5 (would also go to 6-6); CAR 6-4 (would go to 8-4); NO 6-4 (would go to 7-5); ARI 3-7 (would go to 5-7, as would, note, the Lions).
• NFC Playoff Positioning Among Division Winners: Dallas (@Washington, would result in too many primetime appearances for Cowboys) and Green Bay (v. Detroit) are tied for the 1 spot. Both have clinched first-round byes. Tampa Bay (v. Carolina) and Seattle (@Atlanta) are similarly tied for the three spot.
• Analysis: If NBC wants a game that matters for both teams, Bucs-Panthers is the only doable game, and even then only if the Panthers still have a shot at the playoffs. If it’s not, look for another Favre lovefest (Packers-Lions). To think we used to think this was a rich weekend. If NBC just wants good teams, regardless of whether it matters for both sides, Titans-Colts is good, but that’s it, and the Titans can easily be eliminated from the playoffs next week, meaning we’re back to the Favre love. Oh, and the Colts come in just under the gun, so if I got something wrong in this post Titans-Colts is disqualified anyway. And if last year, when there were better games, is any indication? Then I might as well make my final prediction.

Oh, and re-reading the AA post linked to on last week’s watch, I’m even more confused, and no longer certain what AA was thinking, because while Titans-Colts is listed as CBS’ “protected” game, Fox’s game is “GB-CHI”, which obviously isn’t being played at all – and was last year’s NBC game Week 17! But really, Jags-Texans is the only other real dark horse, although Vikings-Broncos might get thrown in for the heck of it. Even then, though, that’ll only happen if there isn’t a Favre to love because he wouldn’t be playing (which I doubt).

Well, now I’m not sure how much I should have relied on Awful Announcing for the protections not provided by Michael Hiestand, because AA pulled a brain freeze earlier this week and claimed there were protected games Week 17. Notwithstanding that that is expressly prohibited, it would also violate the limit on the number of protectable games – that or AA is forgetting his own previous post listing the protected games!

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

Last year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. CBS and Fox were able to protect one game every week each but had to leave one week each unprotected and had to submit their protections after only four weeks.

Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site:

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Two other rules were established earlier: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and can’t protect any games Week 17 this year.
• Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five; the Pats and Cowboys already have six) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 18):

• Selected game: New England @ Buffalo.

Week 12 (November 25):

• Selected game: Philadelphia @ New England.

Week 13 (December 2):

• Selected game: Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh.

Week 14 (December 9):

• Selected game: Indianapolis @ Baltimore.

Week 15 (December 16):

• Selected game: Washington @ NY Giants.

Week 16 (December 23):

• Selected game: Washington @ Minnesota.

Week 17 (December 30):

• Tentative game: Kansas City @ NY Jets
• Prospects: Awful. This has the best chance of losing its spot.
• Other possible games/Playoff Positioning Watch:
• AFC East: Patriots clinched.
• AFC North: Two-horse race. The Steelers are leading but the Browns are just a game back. Bengals and Ravens out. Steelers-Ravens out along with the Ravens’ playoff chances.
• AFC South: The Colts are now two ahead of the Jaguars and the Titans and Texans are both out. Titans-Colts can still excite (see below) but is now vulnerable to an NFC game.
• AFC West: Chargers two ahead of the Broncos and the Chiefs and Raiders are both out. The Chargers are playing the Raiders; the Broncos, the Vikings. Not looking likely.
• AFC Wild Card: The Jags and Browns would get the nod if the season ended today, with the Titans and Bills a game back, the latter playing the Eagles. The Texans and Broncos are two back. Note the Jags-Texans matchup, probably the only serious competitor to Titans-Colts in the AFC. As the Ravens fade, Steelers-Ravens is probably out. Bengals only other team in playoff contention, and only because I’m too lazy to check the tiebreaker.
• NFC East: Cowboys clinched.
• NFC North: Packers clinched.
• NFC South: Bucs up two on Saints, and Panthers would come down to tiebreaker with the Panthers still with one to play against the Bucs. Guess what week that is? Saints playing Da Bears.
• NFC West: Seahawks’ lead over Cardinals comes down to tiebreaker.
• NFC Wild Card: Giants and Vikings would get the nod if the season ended today. Packers-Lions now fading with NFC North locked up and Lions on a losing streak. Vikings-Broncos becomes a minor dark horse. Redskins, Lions, Saints, and Cardinals are all a game back at 6-7, lending a little credence to Packers-Lions, and the Eagles, Bears, and Panthers all have outside shots at 5-8, lending a little credence to Bills-Eagles, Saints-Bears, and Bucs-Panthers. All three of the other teams are at 3-10 and out.

Week 16 (December 23):

• Tentative game: Tampa Bay @ San Francisco
• Prospects: Very problematic, even with the Bucs’ success, which just makes it look lopsided. Tell me NBC and the NFL won’t settle for 8-5 v. 3-10.
• Protected games according to AA: Texans-Colts (CBS) and Packers-Bears (FOX).
• Other possible games mentioned on Wednesday’s Watch and their records: Lions (6-7) v. Chiefs (4-9); Giants (9-4) v. Bills (7-6); Ravens (4-9) v. Seahawks (9-4); Redskins (6-7) v. Vikings (7-6); Eagles (5-8) v. Saints (5-7); Browns (8-5) v. Bengals (5-8).
• Impact of Monday Night Football: The Saints can conceivably improve to 6-7 with a win, but it would still lag behind Skins-Vikings and Giants-Bills.
• Analysis: Not only does Giants-Bills benefit from the Bills winning, it also benefits from not looking as lopsided as I originally thought. Skins-Vikings is the only other halfway decent game.
• Final prediction: New York Giants @ Buffalo Bills.
• Actual selection: Washington Redskins @ Minnesota Vikings. I take two things from this. One is that NBC and the NFL did see Giants-Bills as being awfully lopsided. Another is that they may see the Vikings as speeding ahead a little, since they’ve been on fire of late. But I might want to discount both. Selecting the Giants would have had no effect on Week 17, since the Giants are on NFL Network that week, but it would have kept NBC from selecting any other team with five primetime appearances. Only three teams fall into that category, but they include the Colts, who have a game very much in the running on that night.

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

Last year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. CBS and Fox were able to protect one game every week each but had to leave one week each unprotected and had to submit their protections after only four weeks.

Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site:

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Two other rules were established earlier: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and can’t protect any games Week 17 this year.
• Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five; the Pats and Cowboys already have six) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 18):

• Selected game: New England @ Buffalo.

Week 12 (November 25):

• Selected game: Philadelphia @ New England.

Week 13 (December 2):

• Selected game: Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh.

Week 14 (December 9):

• Selected game: Indianapolis @ Baltimore.

Week 15 (December 16):

• Selected game: Washington @ NY Giants.

Week 16 (December 23):

• Tentative game: Tampa Bay @ San Francisco
• Prospects: Very problematic, even with the Bucs’ success, which just makes it look lopsided. Tell me NBC and the NFL won’t settle for 8-4 v. 3-9.
• Protected games according to AA: Texans-Colts (CBS) and Packers-Bears (FOX).
• Other possible games: There aren’t a lot of attractive matchups this week. Lions-Chiefs is probably out, at 6-6 v. 4-8, and as the Bills fall back to reality Giants-Bills, at 6-6 v. 8-4, is in trouble as well. Ravens-Seahawks? At 4-8 v. 8-4? Please. Skins-Vikings (5-7 v. 6-6 but likely to finish higher) might be the favorite now, and likely has an edge over Eagles-Saints (5-7 v. 5-7) for a number of reasons. At this point even Browns-Bengals has an outside shot at 7-5 v. 4-8.
• Prediction: A lot depends on the lopsidedness factor and how much it comes into play. If it doesn’t look for Giants-Bills to get in with a Buffalo win. If the NFL cared avout the competitiveness of the game Skins-Vikings might have a better shot. But while there are weak matchups here there are better ones than what NBC might think it had to settle for. For Giants-Bills to be beaten, a few things needs to happen; a Bills loss woyld be a start. Skins-Vikings needs a Skins win, but that combined with a Vikings win and Bills loss might make it safe. This one could be wide open in many ways. Hard to read; this will be telling about the NFL’s, and NBC’s, priorities.

Week 17 (December 30):

• Tentative game: Kansas City @ NY Jets
• Prospects: Awful. This has the best chance of losing its spot.
• Other possible games/Playoff Positioning Watch:
• AFC East: Patriots clinched.
• AFC North: Two-horse race. The Steelers are leading but the Browns are just a game back. The Browns can push Steelers-Ravens to primetime if they keep it close (likely) and the Ravens are in contention for a wild card (unlikely).
• AFC South: The Colts are now two ahead of the Jaguars and three ahead of the Titans. Titans-Colts can still excite (see below) but is now vulnerable to an NFC game.
• AFC West: Chargers two ahead of the Broncos and three ahead of the Chiefs and Raiders. The Chargers are playing the Raiders; the Broncos, the Vikings. Not looking likely.
• AFC Wild Card: The Jags and either the Browns or Titans would get the nod if the season ended today, with the Bills a game back, playing the Eagles. The Texans and Broncos are two back. Note the Jags-Texans matchup, probably the only serious competitor to Titans-Colts in the AFC. As the Ravens fade, Steelers-Ravens is probably out. Dolphins cannot make the playoffs and the Jets would come down to a tiebreaker.
• NFC East: Cowboys opening a big lead on the Giants. The Giants are on NFL Network and Dallas has too many primetime appearances. Philly and Washington are both out.
• NFC North: The Pack have opened up a lead large enough to put the Lions and Vikings down to tiebreakers. The Vikings lose that but the Lions still have one to play against the Packers – guess what week that is?
• NFC South: Bucs up three on Saints and Panthers. The Saints play the Bears, and Bucs-Panthers is fading. Falcons out.
• NFC West: Seahawks have opened up a two-game lead over the Cardinals. The former plays the Falcons while the latter plays the Rams. Niners and Rams out.
• NFC Wild Card: Giants and either the Lions, Vikings, or Cardinals would get the nod if the season ended today. Wild-card implications could lend enough credence to Packers-Lions for the Favre factor to take over from there and make it the favorite. Vikings-Broncos becomes a minor dark horse. Redskins, Eagles, Bears, Panthers, and Saints are all a game back at 5-7, which means all but three teams in the NFC are within a game of the playoffs (!), lending a little credence to Bills-Eagles, Saints-Bears, Vikings-Broncos, and Bucs-Panthers. All three of the other teams are at 3-9 but still mathematically in it.