SNF Flex Scheduling Watch

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind):

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:20 p.m. ET.
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:20 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and could not protect any games Week 17 in 2007. Unless I find out otherwise, I’m assuming that’s still the case this year, especially with no tentative game listed Week 17. When looking up info on what the protected games might be, I found out that games were protected after Week FIVE this year, and presumably in some of the previous years. Previously all I knew was that games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling.
• Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.
• A rule that may have come to light late last year but that, given its restrictiveness and lateness in coming to light, I’m having trouble accepting, is that the balance of primetime games taken from FOX and CBS can’t go beyond 22-20 one way or the other. The current tally is FOX 15, CBS 20; with tentative games, the tally is FOX 19, CBS 22. With this rule in place, Weeks 11 and 14-16 cannot be flexed away from NFC road games without making up for it in Weeks 12, 13, and 17, and even with that at least one more game would have to be flexed to an NFC road game in said weeks.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 22):

• Selected game: Philadelphia @ Chicago.

Week 12 (November 29):

• Tentative game: Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
• Prospects: 6-2 v. 4-4, so getting lopsided, but the Steelers are defending champs and it’s a rivalry game – and the pickings are very slim otherwise. Very good chance of keeping its spot.
• Protected games: Bears-Vikings (FOX).
• Other possible games: It’s Thanksgiving Weekend, so there are some slim pickings for games. Colts-Texans, at 8-0 v. 5-4, is the only game involving two teams over .500.
• Analysis: Both games are lopsided to a similar extent. Colts-Texans has the undefeated factor, but it also has the same issue going against it that the Colts had last week, and the Texans aren’t a team that can draw the audience. On the up side, it would be taking a game from CBS either way, but if you asked CBS whether they liked Steelers-Ravens, even with the Ravens at 4-5, or Colts-Texans, methinks they would rather have Steelers-Ravens, and methinks NBC and the NFL will likely think the same way.
• Final prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens (no change).

Week 13 (December 6):

• Tentative game: New England @ Miami
• Prospects: 6-2 v. 3-5. This game is officially lopsided.
• Protected games: Cowboys-Giants (FOX) and Titans-Colts (CBS).
• Other possible games: Eagles-Falcons and Vikings-Cardinals each pit a 3-loss team against a team with the same number of losses or fewer. Eagles-Falcons involves two teams with the same record but Vikings-Cardinals is better overall and has the Favre factor.

Week 14 (December 13):

• Tentative game: Philadelphia @ NY Giants
• Prospects: It’s an NFC East game (always = ratings), and while it doesn’t currently have the NFC East lead on the line it’s still a battle of playoff contenders. Still a pretty good shot to keep its spot – the Giants’ troubles might help it in the long run if the game would have become lopsided as opposed to 5-3 v. 5-4. However, there are strong flex contenders…
• Protected games: Chargers-Cowboys (CBS) and Packers-Bears (FOX).
• Other possible games: Bengals-Vikings, Broncos-Colts, and Saints-Falcons remain strong contenders. Broncos-Colts is still the most compelling candidate to flex away from Eagles-Giants (even if the Broncos are no longer unbeaten), given the NFL’s reticence to pull the flex – but with the Favre factor, Bengals-Vikings at 6-2 v. 7-1 looks mighty compelling, and Saints-Falcons not only has a non-undefeated team almost as good as the Broncos, it might be the Saints’ best chance for a loss all year.

Week 15 (December 20):

• Tentative game: Minnesota @ Carolina
• Prospects: Keeps getting lopsided, with the Vikings 7-1 and the Panthers 3-5. There are better chances to worship at the Favre altar the previous two weeks, against teams that are actually winning, not to mention the Giants Week 17 if that game has playoff implications.
• Protected games: Packers-Steelers (Fox) and Bengals-Chargers (CBS).
• Other possible games: Falcons-Jets is in trouble, but 49ers-Eagles is suffering as the Niners have a losing record. Bears-Ravens is in trouble again with both teams moving to .500 (and the Bears have already moved below that). Those are mediocre enough games that Vikings-Panthers might keep its spot yet.

Week 16 (December 27)

• Tentative game: Dallas @ Washington
• Prospects: Lopsided at 6-2 v. 2-6, but it is the NFL’s biggest rivalry so never count out its chances of keeping the spot.
• Protected games: Ravens-Steelers (CBS).
• Other possible games: Broncos-Eagles and Jets-Colts. Right now the main attraction of those games is the now-beaten Broncos playing 5-3 Philadelphia, and the unbeaten Colts playing a Jets team that is stumbling, but despite the Eagles losing, Broncos-Eagles could be very alive with the two teams separated by one loss. Jags-Patriots is back alive as a dark horse.

Week 17 (January 3 Playoff Positioning Watch):

• With no winless teams and every team playing eight games at most, every team is mathematically in every race.
• AFC East: Patriots lead, Jets two back, Dolphins and Bills a game behind that. New England plays Houston, the Jets play Cincinnati, Miami plays Pittsburgh and the Bills play the Colts.
• AFC North: Bengals and Steelers tied, Ravens two back. The Bengals play the Jets, while the Steelers play the Dolphins and Baltimore plays Oakland.
• AFC South: Colts running away with it; Texans 3 1/2 back, Jags 4 back. The Colts play Buffalo while the Texans play New England and the Jags play the Browns.
• AFC West: Broncos lead, Chargers a game back. The Broncos play the Chiefs while the Chargers play the Redskins.
• AFC Wild Card: If the season ended today, the loser of the AFC North would get the nod along with the Chargers, with the Texans a half-game behind the Chargers and the Jets, Ravens, and Jags a half-game behind that. The Dolphins and Bills are waiting in the wings. Bengals-Jets and Texans-Patriots the main AFC contenders.
• NFC East: Cowboys lead, Eagles a game back, Giants a half-game behind Eagles. Cowboys and Eagles play each other, while the Giants play the Vikings.
• NFC North: Vikings lead by 3 games over Packers and Bears (with the Bears sinking a half-game behind the Packers tonight). The Vikings play the Giants while the Packers play the Cardinals and the Bears play the Lions.
• NFC South: Saints lead by 3 over Falcons. The Saints and Panthers play each other, as do the Falcons and Bucs.
• NFC West: Cardinals lead by 2 over 49ers (now 1 1/2 games back) and Seahawks. Arizona plays Green Bay, while the Niners play the Rams and the Seahawks play the Titans.
• NFC Wild Card: Eagles and Falcons would get the nod if the season ended today, with the Giants a half-game back and the Packers and Bears a half-game behind that (Bears now a full game behind Giants). The Panthers, Niners (just moving a half-game closer), and Seahawks wait in the wings, indicating Panthers-Saints may have dark horse appeal. The NFC definitely has the better games with Cowboys-Eagles, Giants-Vikings, and possibly Packers-Cardinals, but the NFL showed last year they’re more concerned with making sure the game has playoff implications no matter what happens when we get to primetime, so we’ll see how the rest of the season plays out.

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind):

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:20 p.m. ET.
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:20 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and could not protect any games Week 17 in 2007. Unless I find out otherwise, I’m assuming that’s still the case this year, especially with no tentative game listed Week 17. When looking up info on what the protected games might be, I found out that games were protected after Week FIVE this year, and presumably in some of the previous years. Previously all I knew was that games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling.
• Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.
• A rule that may have come to light late last year but that, given its restrictiveness and lateness in coming to light, I’m having trouble accepting, is that the balance of primetime games taken from FOX and CBS can’t go beyond 22-20 one way or the other. The current tally is FOX 15, CBS 20; with tentative games, the tally is FOX 19, CBS 22. With this rule in place, Weeks 11 and 14-16 cannot be flexed away from NFC road games without making up for it in Weeks 12, 13, and 17, and even with that at least one more game would have to be flexed to an NFC road game in said weeks.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 22):

• Tentative game: Philadelphia @ Chicago
• Prospects: 5-2 v. 4-3. Could still keep its spot if the competitors aren’t overwhelmingly appealing.
• Protected games according to this: Jets-Patriots (CBS) and Redskins-Cowboys (FOX).
• Other possible games: Giants-Falcons is no longer the main contender for a flex at 5-3 v. 4-3. Colts-Ravens is 7-0 v. 4-3, and benefits from the Ravens playing better than their record. 49ers-Packers is probably out at 3-4 v. 4-3; at best, they can have matching records to the tentative, at which point the NFL’s bias to keeping the tentative kicks in. The Chargers won and Broncos lost to make Chargers-Broncos suddenly interesting.
• Analysis: In my opinion, Colts-Ravens is the only game that could steal the spot; Giants-Falcons probably needs Philadelphia to lose, the Giants to win, and probably a Bears loss and Falcons win to have a chance of overcoming the tentative-game bias. But Colts-Ravens, lopsided though it may seem, still involves a team with the same record as the Bears playing an undefeated squad, and benefits in several ways from Baltimore’s upset of Denver. First, of course, the Ravens got above .500. Second, the Ravens knocked off one undefeated team; can they knock off another? Third, Colts-Broncos Week 14 is no longer a potential battle of undefeateds. Still, the Colts have five primetime appearances and can’t be flexed out of any of them, meaning if Colts-Falcons is picked that’s it for the Colts the rest of the way – no Colts-Texans Week 12, no Jets-Colts Week 16, and still most damningly, no Broncos-Colts Week 14. And then there’s the fact that this would flex from an NFC road game to an AFC road game…
• Final prediction: Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears (no change).

Week 12 (November 29):

• Tentative game: Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
• Prospects: 5-2 v. 4-3, the Steelers are defending champs, and it’s a rivalry game – and the pickings are very slim otherwise. Very good chance of keeping its spot.
• Protected games: Bears-Vikings (FOX).
• Other possible games: It’s Thanksgiving Weekend, so there are some slim pickings for games. Colts-Texans is the only game involving two teams over .500 – but it’s getting better as the Texans win. Jaguars-49ers is probably out.

Week 13 (December 6):

• Tentative game: New England @ Miami
• Prospects: 5-2 v. 3-4. This game is becoming lopsided.
• Protected games: Cowboys-Giants (FOX) and Titans-Colts (CBS).
• Other possible games: Eagles-Falcons and Vikings-Cardinals each pit a 3-loss team against a team with the same or better record as the Patriots. Eagles-Falcons is less lopsided but Vikings-Cardinals is better overall and has the Favre factor.

Week 14 (December 13):

• Tentative game: Philadelphia @ NY Giants
• Prospects: It’s an NFC East game (always = ratings), and the NFC East is tight enough that the top three teams, including these two, are within a half-game of each other. Still a pretty good shot to keep its spot – the Giants’ troubles might help it in the long run if the game would have become lopsided as opposed to potentially having the division lead on the line if the game was played today.
• Protected games: Chargers-Cowboys (CBS) and Packers-Bears (FOX).
• Other possible games: Bengals-Vikings, Broncos-Colts, and Saints-Falcons remain strong contenders. Broncos-Colts is still the only compelling candidate to flex away from Eagles-Giants (even if the Broncos are no longer unbeaten), given the NFL’s reticence to pull the flex – though with the Favre factor, Bengals-Vikings looks mighty compelling, and Saints-Falcons might be the Saints’ best chance for a loss all year.

Week 15 (December 20):

• Tentative game: Minnesota @ Carolina
• Prospects: Still lopsided, with the Vikings 7-1 and the Panthers 3-4. There are better chances to worship at the Favre altar the previous two weeks, against teams that are actually winning, not to mention the Giants Week 17 if that game has playoff implications.
• Protected games: Packers-Steelers (Fox) and Bengals-Chargers (CBS).
• Other possible games: Falcons-Jets is in trouble, but 49ers-Eagles is suffering as the Niners have a losing record. Bears-Ravens might be the new favorite as the only available game with two teams with winning records. Those are mediocre enough games that Vikings-Panthers might keep its spot yet.

Week 16 (December 27)

• Tentative game: Dallas @ Washington
• Prospects: Lopsided at 5-2 v. 2-5, but it is the NFL’s biggest rivalry so never count out its chances of keeping the spot.
• Protected games: Ravens-Steelers (CBS).
• Other possible games: Broncos-Eagles and Jets-Colts. Right now the main attraction of those games is the now-beaten Broncos playing a team with the same record as the Cowboys, and the unbeaten Colts playing a Jets team that is stumbling, so there’s nothing terribly compelling if the Colts lose but the games remain lopsided – though if the Eagles win Sunday Night Broncos-Eagles will be difficult to argue against next week.

Week 17 (January 3):

• Playoff positioning watch begins Week 9.

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind):

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:20 p.m. ET.
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:20 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and could not protect any games Week 17 in 2007. Unless I find out otherwise, I’m assuming that’s still the case this year, especially with no tentative game listed Week 17. When looking up info on what the protected games might be, I found out that games were protected after Week FIVE this year, and presumably in some of the previous years. Previously all I knew was that games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling.
• Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.
• A rule that may have come to light late last year but that, given its restrictiveness and lateness in coming to light, I’m having trouble accepting, is that the balance of primetime games taken from FOX and CBS can’t go beyond 22-20 one way or the other. The current tally is FOX 15, CBS 20; with tentative games, the tally is FOX 19, CBS 22. With this rule in place, Weeks 11 and 14-16 cannot be flexed away from NFC road games without making up for it in Weeks 12, 13, and 17, and even with that at least one more game would have to be flexed to an NFC road game in said weeks.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 22):

• Tentative game: Philadelphia @ Chicago
• Prospects: 4-2 v. 3-3. Could still keep its spot if the competitors aren’t overwhelmingly appealing, but Da Bears have to stop the slide.
• Protected games according to this: Jets-Patriots (CBS) and Redskins-Cowboys (FOX).
• Other possible games: Giants-Falcons is the main contender for a flex, though the Giants are in trouble, with Colts-Ravens fading and 49ers-Packers looking to be as good a game as the tentative. Look out for Chargers-Broncos as a dark horse if the Chargers keep winning and the Broncos pick up a loss or two.

Week 12 (November 29):

• Tentative game: Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
• Prospects: 5-2 v. 3-3, the Steelers are defending champs, and it’s a rivalry game – and the pickings are very slim otherwise. Very good chance of keeping its spot.
• Protected games: Bears-Vikings (FOX).
• Other possible games: It’s Thanksgiving Weekend, so there are some slim pickings for games. Colts-Texans involves two teams over .500, but it’s lopsided. Jaguars-49ers is a battle of 3-3 teams – it’s not beating Steelers-Ravens.

Week 13 (December 6):

• Tentative game: New England @ Miami
• Prospects: 5-2 v. 2-4. This game is becoming lopsided.
• Protected games: Cowboys-Giants (FOX) and Titans-Colts (CBS).
• Other possible games: Eagles-Falcons is a battle of 4-2 teams. Vikings-Cardinals might be better, at 6-1 v. 4-2 and the Favre factor, which could tip the balance in its favor for a flex. Keep an eye on Jaguars-Texans.

Week 14 (December 13):

• Tentative game: Philadelphia @ NY Giants
• Prospects: It’s an NFC East game (always = ratings), and it’s 5-2 v. 4-2, currently the top two spots in said division (even if the Eagles are still tied for #2). Still a pretty good shot to keep its spot – the Giants’ troubles might help it in the long run if the game would have become lopsided as opposed to potentially having the division lead on the line if the game was played today.
• Protected games: Chargers-Cowboys (CBS) and Packers-Bears (FOX).
• Other possible games: Bengals-Vikings, Broncos-Colts, and Saints-Falcons remain strong contenders. Broncos-Colts is still the only compelling candidate to flex away from Eagles-Giants (without a loss between them), given the NFL’s reticence to pull the flex – though with the Favre factor, Bengals-Vikings looks mighty compelling, and Saints-Falcons might be the Saints’ best chance for a loss all year.

Week 15 (December 20):

• Tentative game: Minnesota @ Carolina
• Prospects: Still lopsided, with the Vikings 6-1 and the Panthers 2-4. There are better chances to worship at the Favre altar the previous two weeks, against teams that are actually winning, not to mention the Giants Week 17 if that game has playoff implications.
• Protected games: Packers-Steelers (Fox) and Bengals-Chargers (CBS).
• Other possible games: Falcons-Jets is the best, at 4-2 @ 4-3, followed by 49ers-Eagles and Bears-Ravens. Those are mediocre enough games that Vikings-Panthers might keep its spot yet.

Week 16 (December 27)

• Tentative game: Dallas @ Washington
• Prospects: Lopsided at 4-2 v. 2-5, but it is the NFL’s biggest rivalry so never count out its chances of keeping the spot.
• Protected games: Ravens-Steelers (CBS).
• Other possible games: Broncos-Eagles and Jets-Colts, with Jaguars-Patriots a dark horse. Right now the main attraction of those games is the unbeaten Broncos and Colts playing teams with similar records to the Cowboys, so there’s nothing terribly compelling if both unbeatens lose but the games remain lopsided.

Week 17 (January 3):

• Playoff positioning watch begins Week 9.

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind):

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:20 p.m. ET.
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:20 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and could not protect any games Week 17 in 2007. Unless I find out otherwise, I’m assuming that’s still the case this year, especially with no tentative game listed Week 17. When looking up info on what the protected games might be, I found out that games were protected after Week FIVE this year, and presumably in some of the previous years. Previously all I knew was that games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling.
• Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.
• A rule that may have come to light late last year but that, given its restrictiveness and lateness in coming to light, I’m having trouble accepting, is that the balance of primetime games taken from FOX and CBS can’t go beyond 22-20 one way or the other. The current tally is FOX 15, CBS 20; with tentative games, the tally is FOX 19, CBS 22. With this rule in place, Weeks 11 and 14-16 cannot be flexed away from NFC road games without making up for it in Weeks 12, 13, and 17, and even with that at least one more game would have to be flexed to an NFC road game in said weeks.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 22):

• Tentative game: Philadelphia @ Chicago
• Prospects: 3-2 v. 3-2, with a pretty good chance of keeping its spot.
• Protected games according to this: Jets-Patriots (CBS) and Redskins-Cowboys (FOX).
• Other possible games: Giants-Falcons is the main contender for a flex with Colts-Ravens fading and 49ers-Packers looking to be as good a game as the tentative.

Week 12 (November 29):

• Tentative game: Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
• Prospects: 4-2 v. 3-3, the Steelers are defending champs, and it’s a rivalry game – and the pickings are very slim otherwise. Very good chance of keeping its spot.
• Protected games: Bears-Vikings (FOX).
• Other possible games: It’s Thanksgiving Weekend, so there are some slim pickings for games. Jaguars-49ers and Colts-Texans each involve a team with the same record as the Ravens playing a team above .500, but one’s lopsided and the other has a worse average record.

Week 13 (December 6):

• Tentative game: New England @ Miami
• Prospects: A little mediocre at 4-2 v. 2-3, but anything can happen. PFT’s Mike Florio, which is now part of the NBC Sports site, seems to think the Dolphins are better than the 3-3 Jets and Jags.
• Protected games: Cowboys-Giants (FOX) and Titans-Colts (CBS).
• Other possible games: Eagles-Falcons and Vikings-Cardinals each involve a 2-loss team playing a team with a better record. Keep an eye on Jaguars-Texans.

Week 14 (December 13):

• Tentative game: Philadelphia @ NY Giants
• Prospects: It’s an NFC East game (always = ratings), and it’s 5-1 v. 3-2, currently the top two spots in said division (even if the Eagles are now tied for #2). Pretty good shot to keep its spot, though weaker than last week.
• Protected games: Chargers-Cowboys (CBS) and Packers-Bears (FOX).
• Other possible games: Bengals-Vikings, Broncos-Colts, and Saints-Falcons remain strong contenders. But even with the NFC East’s struggles last week, Broncos-Colts is currently the only compelling candidate to flex away from Eagles-Giants (without a loss between them), given the NFL’s reticence to pull the flex.

Week 15 (December 20):

• Tentative game: Minnesota @ Carolina
• Prospects: Still lopsided, with the Vikings 6-0 and the Panthers 2-3, and CBS’ decision not to protect Bengals-Vikings last week really hurts its chances, since this is no longer NBC’s best shot to see Brett Favre. (Though since that comes in a week with a very attractive tentative game, it’s still relevant that NBC’s other two shots are the Cardinals game Week 13 and the Giants game Week 17, the latter of which will be affected by the game’s playoff implications.)
• Protected games: Packers-Steelers (Fox) and Bengals-Chargers (CBS).
• Other possible games: Of the games I mentioned last week, only 49ers-Eagles didn’t see a team fall to .500 last week. Still, keep an eye on Falcons-Jets and Bears-Ravens.

Week 16 (December 27)

• Tentative game: Dallas @ Washington
• Prospects: Could go either way, at 3-2 v. 2-4, but it is the NFL’s biggest rivalry so its chances of keeping its spot are probably better than even. If the Redskins continue to be the Raiders Lite, though…
• Protected games: Ravens-Steelers (CBS).
• Other possible games: Broncos-Eagles. Jets-Colts is now mostly a dark horse, along with Jaguars-Patriots.

Week 17 (January 3):

• Playoff positioning watch begins Week 9.

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind):

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:20 p.m. ET.
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:20 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and could not protect any games Week 17 in 2007. Unless I find out otherwise, I’m assuming that’s still the case this year, especially with no tentative game listed Week 17. When looking up info on what the protected games might be, I found out that games were protected after Week FIVE this year, and presumably in some of the previous years. Previously all I knew was that games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling.
• Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. At this writing, no team is completely tapped out at any measure, although the Colts have five primetime appearances and can’t be flexed out of any of them, which is a problem since three other teams also have five primetime appearances and can be flexed out of them. NBC appearances for all teams: TEN 2, PIT 3 (1 flexible), CHI 3 (1 flexible), GB 1, NYG 4 (1 flexible), DAL 3 (1 flexible), IND 3, ARI 2, SD 1, ATL 1, PHI 4 (2 flexible), NE 3 (1 flexible), BAL 1 (flexible), MIA 1 (flexible), MIN 1 (flexible), CAR 1 (flexible), WAS 1 (flexible). All primetime appearances for all teams: TEN 4, PIT 5 (1 flexible), CHI 5 (1 flexible), GB 3, NYG 4 (1 flexible), DAL 5 (1 flexible), IND 5, ARI 3, SD 4, ATL 2, PHI 3 (2 flexible), NE 3 (1 flexible), BAL 3 (1 flexible), MIA 4 (1 flexible), MIN 3 (1 flexible), CAR 3 (1 flexible), WAS 3 (1 flexible), BUF 2, OAK 1, NYJ 2, DEN 3, NO 3, SF 2, CLE 2, HOU 1, JAX 1.
• A rule that may have come to light late last year but that, given its restrictiveness and lateness in coming to light, I’m having trouble accepting, is that the balance of primetime games taken from FOX and CBS can’t go beyond 22-20 one way or the other. The current tally is FOX 15, CBS 20; with tentative games, the tally is FOX 19, CBS 22. With this rule in place, Weeks 11 and 14-16 cannot be flexed away from NFC road games without making up for it in Weeks 12, 13, and 17, and even with that at least one more game would have to be flexed to an NFC road game in said weeks.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 22):

• Tentative game: Philadelphia @ Chicago
• Prospects: 3-1 v. 3-1, with a pretty good chance of keeping its spot.
• Protected games according to this: Jets-Patriots (CBS) and Redskins-Cowboys (FOX). Apparently the NFL’s most storied rivalry outweighs a game between two better teams in Giants-Falcons.
• Other possible games: Colts-Ravens and Giants-Falcons are the main contenders with Chargers-Broncos and 49ers-Packers as dark horses.

Week 12 (November 29):

• Tentative game: Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
• Prospects: 3-2 v. 3-2, the Steelers are defending champs, and it’s a rivalry game – and the pickings are very slim otherwise. Very good chance of keeping its spot.
• Protected games: Bears-Vikings (FOX).
• Other possible games: It’s Thanksgiving Weekend, so there are some slim pickings for games – Bears-Vikings is the only other Saturday game pitting two teams with winning records, which, combined with the fact that Steelers-Ravens would revert to them, makes it an easy decision for CBS to leave this week unprotected despite how crap next week is for them. Jaguars-49ers, Colts-Texans, and Redskins-Eagles are the only games that so much as involve a 2-3 team playing a team with less than 3 losses.

Week 13 (December 6):

• Tentative game: New England @ Miami
• Prospects: A little mediocre at 3-2 v. 2-3, but anything can happen.
• Protected games: Cowboys-Giants (FOX) and Titans-Colts (CBS). Last week I noted that for CBS to protect any game other than a battle of then-2-2 teams in Jags-Texans was to take a leap of faith that some team below .500 is going to improve. Apparently CBS REALLY thinks the Titans’ 0-5 start is a fluke. But I also said that the only reason CBS might protect ANY game is because of the weakness of the tentative game, then 3-1 v. 1-3.
• Other possible games: Eagles-Falcons is the only Saturday game this week pitting two teams with one or no losses. Vikings-Cardinals is a dark horse.

Week 14 (December 13):

• Tentative game: Philadelphia @ NY Giants
• Prospects: It’s an NFC East game (always = ratings), and it’s 5-0 v. 3-1, currently the top two spots in said division. Pretty good shot to keep its spot, which means Fox could have left this week unprotected. There’s a better candidate later, though.
• Protected games: Chargers-Cowboys (CBS) and Packers-Bears (FOX).
• Other possible games: Those were the games I expected to be the frontrunners to potentially steal the spot, not to be protected, last week; Bengals-Vikings, Broncos-Colts, and Saints-Falcons were and are better games. CBS is especially surprising because not only are Bengals-Vikings and Broncos-Colts better games, they have no shortage of starpower in Brett Favre and Peyton Manning respectively. This may have less to do with records than the fact that the only other AFC game in Cowboy Stadium, while on CBS, involves the crappy Raiders.

Week 15 (December 20):

• Tentative game: Minnesota @ Carolina
• Prospects: Incredibly lopsided, with the Vikings unbeaten and the Panthers 1-3, and CBS’ decision not to protect Bengals-Vikings last week really hurts its chances, since this is no longer NBC’s best shot to see Brett Favre. (Though since that comes in a week with a very attractive tentative game, it’s still relevant that NBC’s other two shots are the Cardinals game Week 13 and the Giants game Week 17, the latter of which will be affected by the game’s playoff implications.)
• Protected games: Packers-Steelers (Fox) and Bengals-Chargers (CBS).
• Other possible games: I completely misread Packers-Steelers as a CBS game last week, but Falcons-Jets, Bears-Ravens, or 49ers-Eagles are still better games involving two teams each above .500; none have the name value of the Steelers, though, and while the other Fox Steelers game is more attractive against the Vikings, it’s an early game as soon as Week 7 that’s unlikely to be shown in the late slot. In this sense, protecting the only half-decent game they had was a shoo-in for CBS.

Week 16 (December 27)

• Tentative game: Dallas @ Washington
• Prospects: Could go either way, at 3-2 v. 2-3, but it is the NFL’s biggest rivalry so its chances of keeping its spot are probably better than even. Given how crappy Fox’s games are and how marquee this game is regardless of records, it’s no wonder Fox left this week unprotected despite the bounty of great games last week and the (arguably) even more marquee game Week 14.
• Likely protections: Ravens-Steelers (CBS).
• Other possible games: Jets-Colts or Broncos-Eagles.

Week 17 (January 3):

• Playoff positioning watch begins Week 9.