Idle notes about myself.

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One of these days, I may just bite the bullet and get a subscription to the Atlantic.

This article does not mention Asperger’s syndrome directly, but it does make me a lot more confident than I used to be about the “Darwinist” theory on the rise of Asperger’s… as well as other neurological “disorders”. It examines findings in science that may suggest that the same things that make people with ADD such a handful may, properly nurtured, make them more successful later in life, and may make them more useful for a variety of tasks – serving an evolutionary purpose that may help explain how we got this far in the development of civilization, not just their own existence. “Savant syndrome” may be the entire evolutionary point of Asperger’s and other such things.

As much as I’ve benefited and believed in it, the philosophical, logical side of me has long wondered why only (well, primarily) autistics promote the “neurodiversity” movement, claiming that their method of thinking is not necessarily bad, just different. People with ADD and dyslexics also think “differently”, so why aren’t they claiming they shouldn’t be “cured”, at least to the same extent? Is it because autistics still have several “beneficial” aspects to them, so autistics are still making a “good/bad” judgment and saying their way of thinking is worthy of being preserved because it’s beneficial and others aren’t? This article suggests other neurological disorders may indeed have their own claims to legitimacy.

The Top 12 Games of the Last Decade

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To see this list with pretty pictures, read it on Bleacher Report.

So it seems that, for the last month or so, everyone has been doing their “best of the decade” post-mortems. Seems everyone has forgotten all the hoopla and nonsense about how 2000 wasn’t really the start of a new millennium because there wasn’t really a “Year Zero”. If the new millennium really started with 2001, shouldn’t a new decade start with 2011? But I digress. In any case, it seems an appropriate time to take a look at the best games of the past ten years, even if it is a little late (the Packers and Cardinals already produced a nominee for the next decade just on Sunday), and sure enough last month ESPN presented 25 nominees and asked people to vote for their own best games of the decade, a list of nominees I’ve used as the backbone for this list.

It’s easy for me to say this when I wasn’t around for any of the earlier ages, but this past decade may have been one of the biggest golden ages in American sports, if not for the athleticism (or the legitimacy of it) then for the emotional and captivating games and moments. I started out intending to create a list of just the top ten games of the last decade, a list that would surely be limited to the truly transcendent moments, the cream of the crop, the games and events that would stand the test of time. Yet I found that to truly capture everything that happened in the last decade, to truly capture everything that I wanted to capture, I would have to extend the list to twelve. Even with the two extra spots, I had to do a lot of culling to produce the list you see here. (Sports Illustrated ultimately put together a top 20 list.)

Texas Tech upended Texas in 2008 in a thrilling game won on a tremendous catch and run for a touchdown on the effective final play, a game that ultimately kept Texas out of the Big 12 title game and thus the national title game, a game on par with any of the other great games of that thrilling year, but a game that was not even considered for the list. There is nothing from the NBA, which for most of this decade was in its post-MJ nadir. There is nothing from any sport smaller than tennis, which had to put on a heck of a performance to make the list. There is nothing from the NHL or auto racing. There is no Usain Bolt or Lance Armstrong. Only one baseball game made the list; Grady Little’s decision to leave in Pedro leading to Aaron Boone’s extra inning home run in Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS didn’t make the list, and neither did the 18-inning classic between the Braves and Astros in 2005 won by Roger Clemens coming out of the bullpen. Game 7 of the 2001 World Series, when the Arizona Diamondbacks cracked the great Mariano Rivera to win the series, didn’t make the list. Miami versus Ohio State, the first classic BCS title game, didn’t make the list. Super Bowl XXXIV, which ended one yard short of potentially going into overtime, didn’t make the list. Neither did XXXVIII, a showdown between the Patriots and Panthers with a high-scoring, back-and-forth final quarter many at the time considered one of the greatest Super Bowls ever.

No, to make this list you have to have something more. A great game in sports can involve a number of factors, whether it’s a tight, competitive game that’s only decided in the final seconds or a thrilling comeback against insurmountable odds, whether it’s a game between two unstoppable forces where something has to give or an underdog shocking the world and upsetting the favorite. A great game ideally involves high stakes, such as a championship, and its impact is felt for years to come. To make this list requires some combination of all of those; this list is so exclusive that only the cream of the crop can make it. There is not a single regular season game on this list; only one game, because of college football’s wonky postseason, did not give its winner a shot at the championship, and most of these games were for a championship of some kind. The underdog won most of these games, and even when the favorite won, it was one heck of an uphill climb. Many of these games went to overtime; almost all ended within one score. And pretty much every single one left everyone staring at their TVs in disbelief.

(Note: I consulted Wikipedia in the writing of these entries, so take from that what you will.)

Without further ado, I present to you Morgan Wick’s Top 12 Games of the Last Decade.

12 AFC Championship Game: Patriots @ Colts (2007)
Peyton Manning couldn’t win the big one. He’d already racked up more stats and records than any other quarterback of his era. But he’d never won a title, because he could never get past Tom Brady and the juggernaut known as the New England Patriots, whenever they met in the playoffs. Peyton Manning couldn’t put together that great, game-winning drive, that great comeback, like Montana and Brady could; instead, he was doomed to be put in the same sentence as Tarkenton or Marino, quarterbacks who had great numbers but could never win a ring. Asante Samuel picked him off 35 yards for a touchdown with nine and a half minutes left in the first half, giving the Patriots a 21-3 lead. Peyton Manning was once again going to collapse when the pressure was strongest and lose the big one. Except he set up Adam Vinatieri, star of so many Patriots championships past, to cut the deficit to 21-6 before the half, and led the Colts on two 76-yard touchdown drives during the first 11 minutes of the second half to tie the game. For the rest of the game, whenever the Patriots scored, the Colts answered. New England scored a touchdown; Indy scored a touchdown. New England kicked a field goal; Indy kicked a field goal. Finally New England kicked another field goal to take a 34-31 lead with 3:53 left. Peyton Manning wasn’t going to make the game-winning drive when he needed to. But that’s what he did, moving the ball 80 yards in just 7 plays to give the Colts a touchdown and their first lead of the game. But he left one minute on the clock; plenty of time for Tom Brady. But this time, Tom Terrific would throw an interception and the Colts could finally celebrate a victory over the Patriots when it mattered most. And two weeks later, Peyton Manning would win the one thing his Hall of Fame resume lacked: a Super Bowl ring.

11 MCBB National Championship Game: Kansas v. Memphis (2008)
9, 5, 16, 9, 7, 17. In chronological order, those are the last six victory margins in the NCAA Men’s Basketball National Championship Game, which in recent years has not lived up to its status as the culmination of the national month-long phenomenon known as March Madness, instead perennially ending the tournament with an anticlimactic blowout. Only three games this decade had victory margins lower than nine points, two of them being Syracuse’s three-point win over Kansas in 2003 when they were led by Carmelo Anthony, and North Carolina’s 5-point win over Illinois in 2005 that was only close for a few brief periods at the beginning and end of the game. But that 7-point game, delivered by Kansas and Memphis in 2008, was every bit the culmination that the tournament deserves. Kansas would only get that 7-point victory margin in overtime; they were down by nine with 2:12 to play and worked furiously to eliminate that deficit, helped by Memphis’ free-throw shooting woes. Even with all of that, it still took one clutch three-point shot from Mario Chalmers in the final seconds to send the game into overtime. Kansas would dominate the extra session, giving Bill Self his first championship, but Memphis proved once and for all it was worthy of the big boys despite coming from otherwise-weak Conference USA. The game has become rather colored since – you won’t find it in NCAA record books because the game was vacated as a result of NCAA violations at Memphis – but for one year, the tournament had a championship game worthy of the tournament itself.

10 Super Bowl XLIII: Steelers v. Cardinals (2009)
Super Bowl XLIII didn’t start out much differently from many other Super Bowls. The Steelers took a 10-0 lead a minute into the second quarter, but the Cardinals responded with a touchdown of their own, and late in the first half Kurt Warner, enjoying an unusual career resurgence, drove the Cardinals down to tie or take the lead before the half. And then unsung Steeler linebacker James Harrison picked him off at the goal line and managed to run all 100 yards down the field and 18 seconds off the clock, turning what could have been a tie game or Cardinal lead to a 17-7 Steeler lead, despite Larry Fitzgerald coming close to bringing him down at the one. (Contrary to popular belief, had Fitzgerald been successful the half would not have ended with Harrison’s interception failing to result in points; a look at the video shows the clock only hits zero as Harrison crosses the goal line, and Harrison could still have been brought down at the one with one second left.) That set the tone for what became one of the wildest Super Bowls in history, as Pittsburgh extended the lead to 20-7 by the end of the third period, only to see Warner move the ball 87 yards on only eight plays in less than four minutes, culminating in a pass to Fitzgerald to move within six. Then Pittsburgh was pinned on the one and Ben Roethlisberger appeared to complete a 20-yard pass to Santonio Holmes, only to see it nullified on a flag in the end zone that gave the Cardinals a safety, cutting the lead to four. Then on just the second play of the ensuing drive, Warner completed it to Fitzgerald who sprinted past the defense for a 63-yard touchdown that gave the Cardinals the lead. Then Roethlisberger drove the Steelers 78 yards (really 88 yards because of a holding penalty) in eight plays and two minutes, culminating in Santonio Holmes tapping his toes in the end zone to retake the lead. Then Warner took over hoping his great receivers could give him some late heroics of his own, but had the ball forced out as he attempted to pass, in a play Cardinals fans still think should have been ruled an incompletion, as Roethlisberger was finally able to take a knee to give the Steelers their second championship in four years.

9 ALCS: Yankees @ Red Sox Game 4 (2004)
The Yankees won the first three games of the series, and by big margins. No team in the history of baseball had ever come back from a 3-0 deficit. Now it was Game 4, and while the Yankees weren’t dominating the Red Sox, only leading 4-3, they had the Hammer of God, Mariano Rivera, the greatest closer of all time, on the mound. No one hits Mariano Rivera; no one scores off of Mariano Rivera; Mariano Rivera does not blow saves, certainly not in the postseason. With just three more outs, the Red Sox were going to be swept out of the ALCS in ignominious fashion, worse than the heartbreak of the year before, and the fabled Curse of the Bambino would continue for one more year as the Red Sox’ World Series futility would have one more chapter written. Then Rivera walked Kevin Millar, and Dave Roberts, in as a pinch-runner, incredibly took off for second, just barely beating the tag. Bill Mueller singled in Roberts, and the game went into extra innings, where David Ortiz would hit a walk-off home run in the twelfth to keep the series alive. The Red Sox were still down 3-1 in the series, still a tall order, but the Yankees were already demoralized, and another Rivera blown save and Ortiz extra-inning heroics sent the series back to New York but with the outcome seemingly a foregone conclusion. Curt Schilling threw seven innings of one-run ball in the “Bloody Sock game” and some controversial calls prevented the Yankees from mounting a long enough rally to win, and Game 7 would prove a blowout. Boston went on to sweep the Cardinals right out of the World Series, a shockingly sudden end to the Curse, and Boston fans still wouldn’t be sure the tables wouldn’t be turned on them until that final out. And for one year, the pendulum in the greatest rivalry in baseball swung to Fenway Park.

8 Super Bowl XXXVI: Rams v. Patriots (2002)
Members of the Rams declared before the game that it would mark the birth of a dynasty, after winning Super Bowl XXXIV two years before. They were right; they just didn’t play for that dynasty. No one expected the Patriots to win Super Bowl XXXVI against the Rams, considered the most dominant team in football with one of the greatest offenses of all time, known as the “Greatest Show On Turf” with multiple future Hall of Famers or potential Hall of Famers from Kurt Warner to Marshall Faulk to Torry Holt. The Patriots were relying on an unproven rookie quarterback and only escaped their wild card game against the Raiders in the controversial “tuck rule” game. But the New England Patriots were perhaps the perfect team for America to root for in the first Super Bowl since 9/11, especially after the pregame introductions. The Rams had each member of the starting lineup introduced individually, as was then the custom; the Patriots declared their intention to be introduced as a team, as a single unit without egos. The following year would be the final year anyone would be introduced individually. The Patriots stymied the Greatest Show On Turf, only allowing a field goal in the first half and Ty Law returning an interception 47 yards for a touchdown, helping the Patriots take a 14-3 halftime and 17-3 end-of-third-quarter lead. The Rams wouldn’t score any touchdowns until the fourth quarter, scoring two to tie the game with 1:30 left, leaving John Madden to suggest the Patriots play for overtime. Instead, Tom Brady drove the Patriots 53 yards to allow Adam Vinatieri to kick the game-winning field goal on the last play of the game, winning Super Bowl MVP. The Patriots would win two more championships in the next three years; the Rams were never the same, going 0-2 in the divisional round since, and winning the division and posting a winning record once in the succeeding years (in 2003), culminating in a 1-15 record in 2009 that made them the laughingstock of the league. Super Bowl XXXVI was a classic at the time, but rarely has one game shifted the fortunes of two franchises so much.

7 MCBB Washington Regional Final: George Mason v. Connecticut (2006)
The heart of the NCAA tournament is Cinderella, the underdog that upends the big name school despite not having nearly the name value or prestige. But it’s the big name schools, not the underdogs, that make the Final Four year after year, schools like Florida and UCLA and North Carolina and Duke. It’s not a bunch of kids from a no-name suburban commuter school. In fact, George Mason was a pretty good team that year, as evidenced by the fact they entered the tournament as an at-large despite losing one of their best players, Tony Skinn, to a suspension for the first game. In fact, when they knocked off Michigan State despite being without Skinn, I distinctly remember thinking, “If they could win a game over the 6 seed without Skinn, imagine what they could do with him.” Indeed, the Patriots went on to knock out North Carolina in the second round. But they lucked into another underdog mid-major, Wichita State, in the Sweet 16; surely the winner of that game would serve as little more than the whipping boy for the winner of the battle of Huskies between UConn and Washington. Except it didn’t happen that way. Mason proved once and for all they could play with the big boys, sticking with Connecticut every stage of the game, never giving up even when down substantially. Mason gave up a late lead that allowed the Huskies to hit a buzzer-beater to send the game to overtime, but in the extra session it was Mason that looked like the big name school and Connecticut that looked like the scrappy mid-major that was just happy to be there. Florida blew out Mason in the Final Four, but for one night, a bunch of no-names from a sleepy commuter school in suburban Washington played perhaps the defining game of March Madness.

6 Wimbledon Men’s Singles Final: Federer v. Nadal (2008)
Roger Federer was the dominant tennis player of the decade, so dominant no one else could challenge him – outside of clay. Rafael Nadal was already one of the greatest clay court players of all time, and had reached the Wimbledon final the year before, but just as Federer couldn’t crack Nadal on clay, so Nadal couldn’t crack Federer on grass. But in 2008, on the most storied court in tennis, Nadal took the first two sets before rain intervened. Federer rallied to take the third set in a tiebreak and rallied from 5-2 down with Nadal serving in the fourth set tiebreak to force a fifth, which was interrupted by another rain delay. Neither man could crack the other’s serve until 7-7, when Nadal picked up a break and went on to win the match only games before it would have been suspended by darkness. Some of the greatest players in the history of the game called it the greatest match they’d ever seen, but it was more important than that. It marked a passing of the torch, signifying that Nadal was now the most dominant player in the game, taking the World No. 1 ranking by the end of the year. Federer would have the more successful 2009 when Nadal was taken out of Roland Garros and Wimbledon by injury, completing the career slam and passing Pete Sampras, but people will always remember the classic Federer and Nadal put on on Centre Court in 2008.

5 Fiesta Bowl: Boise State v. Oklahoma (2007)
Boise State’s win over Oklahoma in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl has always been a bit overrated. It’s hardly an upset – both major polls had Boise not far behind Oklahoma, and the computers thought highly enough of the Broncos to actually pull them ahead of the Sooners in the BCS standings. Oklahoma was not a world-beater team; they lucked into the Big 12 Title Game when Texas choked down the stretch. But c’mon. It’s Oklahoma – Oklahoma! Oklahoma doesn’t lose to directional schools with weird-colored fields like Boise State! Boise – all the non-BCS schools – were considered unworthy of respect until proven otherwise. Since both teams were mediocre by BCS standards, the Fiesta Bowl was not even all that well-played. But it was certainly one of the wildest games of the decade. Boise would lead much of the game before Oklahoma rallied to tie, then Jared Zabransky surrendered an interception return for a touchdown to give OU the lead. Then Boise pulled out all the stops to come away with the win, starting with the famous hook-and-lateral to force overtime. Oklahoma scored on the first possession, and Boise responded with a relatively normal halfback pass, putting them an extra point away from forcing a second overtime… wait, Chris Peterson is going all-in with a two-point conversion? He’s making it do-or-die for Boise? Zabransky faked the throw while handing off to Ian Johnson – the Statue of Liberty? – and Boise had knocked off one of college football’s most storied programs and Johnson delivered one of the most unforgettable proposals of all time. But more than the excitement of the game itself, the 2007 Fiesta Bowl deserves importance for how it changed college football, doing more than any other single game to make a playoff inevitable by showing that the college football have-nots deserved a seat at the table – and perhaps more importantly, Boise’s trick plays earned the lower-tier schools a reputation for unconventional, entertaining play that turned them into money-makers as well, showing that the have-nots were worth giving a seat at the table to.

4 Beijing 2008 Olympic Games: 100m Butterfly Final (2008)
Even underdog-friendly America cheers on the favorites sometimes, usually because they’re American, but often, as in the next two entries, because they do something to show how great they are, in a way they can’t when they destroy everyone else. In 2008, Michael Phelps took aim at Mark Spitz’s record of seven Olympic gold medals, in a quest that captivated the nation for the first week of the Games. No one knew he would achieve the feat in quite the dramatic fashion he did. Several races from Phelps’ eight could have been selected to represent his quest in this spot, from Jason Lezak’s hard charge in the 4×100 freestyle to Phelps playing a crucial role in getting his own eighth medal in the 4×100 medley. But the race ESPN picked to represent Phelps’ chase was the one that tied the record. For much of the Games, Phelps’ foil was Ian Crocker, who held the world record in the event, but Serbian Milorad Cavic had shown in the past signs that he could best Phelps in the 100m butterfly, often getting derailed before he could take on Phelps when it counted. Cavic beat Phelps when they competed together in the heats, and swam a faster time in the semifinals. That gave Cavic so much confidence he declared it would be better for swimming for Phelps to fall, giving Phelps plenty of bulletin-board material entering the race. Nonetheless Cavic had the lead at the turn, and Phelps had to mount a heroic comeback to cut the lead down, only to be caught mid-stroke as the wall beckoned, still behind Cavic. With one last, powerful stroke, Phelps powered into the wall as Cavic glided in… and the scoreboard gave him the win, one one-hundredth of a second ahead of Cavic. So unbelievable was the result even Phelps himself, and his mother, had trouble believing it until they saw the scoreboard. The Serbs immediately filed a protest, but it was quickly denied, and less than 24 hours later photos confirmed that Phelps was at the wall as Cavic was just about to touch it. By the slimmest of margins, Phelps’ quest for eight gold medals stayed alive. Crocker would be beaten for the bronze by Australia’s Andrew Lauterstein. By one one-hundredth of a second.

3 US Open (Golf): Final Round and Playoff (2008)
Before he was known for having a bevy of girlfriends, Tiger Woods was known for being a pretty good golfer. No golfer in the past decade was anywhere near as consistently dominant as Tiger, who ran down Jack Nicklaus’ record with determination. In recent years injuries have hobbled Woods, and after the 2008 Masters Woods had arthroscopic surgery on his knee. Woods was determined not to miss a major, and in his zeal to come back suffered a stress fracture in his tibia. No one outside of Woods’ inner circle knew of the injury as he played in the US Open anyway. But they could see it in the way he hobbled down the course all weekend, going so far as to use his club as a crutch. Still, it’s Tiger Woods. Come on. Tiger was second after two rounds, but continued to struggle and fell behind. But he dazzled the crowd with a chip-in for birdie on 17 and two eagles down the stretch to pick up a one-stroke lead entering the final day, but if ever Tiger was ripe for his streak of majors won when he leads after three rounds to be broken, now was the time. And of all people, it was a 40-year-old journeyman qualifier named Rocco Mediate who seized the opportunity, taking a one-shot lead to the clubhouse as Woods and his playing partner Lee Westwood came to the eighteenth hole. Westwood missed his 15-foot birdie putt to force a playoff, and Woods had one from twelve. Would it go in? It’s Tiger Woods. Come on. Mediate gave Woods everything he had in the eighteen-hole playoff the next day, but he fell behind three strokes after the tenth. Then Tiger started to struggle and Mediate started to come back, taking a one-shot lead after the fifteenth that held entering the final hole. Still, it’s Tiger Woods. Come on. As on the previous day, Woods birdied 18 while Mediate parred, forcing a nineteenth hole, which Woods parred and Mediate bogied. But Mediate would not be forgotten as the man who brought out the best from a hobbled Tiger. Later that week, Woods announced he was ending his season – his injury was too serious – and people realized just how much he had to overcome to win perhaps his greatest major of all.

2 Rose Bowl: Texas v. USC (2006)
Give this to the BCS: when it works, it works spectacularly. When there are exactly two undefeated teams and both come from BCS conferences, it creates a singular event that, even if both teams escape the playoff unscathed, a playoff might take some of the momentum out of. One game between the two dominant programs in college football, two teams that would simply be wasting time playing anyone else, two teams that went wire-to-wire as the obvious best teams in college football, two teams that, as Wikipedia puts it (and it shouldn’t), would be runaway champions if they weren’t playing in the same year as each other. But they were, and something had to give, and it was natural that that something would be Texas, going up against a USC team with NFL talent all over the field, playing virtually at home, and coming off two straight national championships, to the extent that ESPN ran a series comparing USC not to Texas, but to all the great teams in college football history. As it turned out, it would be ESPN’s “Dewey Defeats Truman” moment, because Vince Young was all Texas needed.

Reggie Bush cast doubt on his Heisman victory with a botched lateral and two controversial plays, including a Young lateral for a touchdown, were not reviewed because of malfunctioning replay equipment, but the real fun ensued late. USC took a 38-26 lead with 6:42 left to play, but Young led the Longhorns on a brisk drive in which he accounted for every yard. USC got a first down but at third down at midfield, saw LenDale White fumble the ball and recovered it two yards short of a first down. For a team in the lead, fourth and two is a punting situation. But Vince Young was as scary as Peyton Manning would be nearly four years later, and the Trojans were a lot further down the field than the Patriots. They handed the ball to White, he came a yard short, and Young accounted for every yard on the ensuing drive, dashing to the end zone on fourth-and-5 from the 9. The Longhorns took a one-point lead, and fittingly, it was Young dashing to the end zone again on the ensuing two-point conversion. There wasn’t enough time for the Trojans to score, and Texas, not USC, were considered the best team in football. USC hasn’t played for a national championship since, but the real long-term impact came in the NFL Draft. After the second Trojan title, Matt Leinart forewent an almost surefire number 1 selection in the NFL Draft to win another. Bush turned into the top Trojan, picked second by the Saints. The Tennessee Titans, with former USC offensive coordinator Norm Chow as OC, picked third, needing a quarterback, and chose Young over Leinart. Leinart fell to 10th before being picked by Arizona. That Pasadena night made all the difference.

1 Super Bowl XLII: Patriots v. Giants (2008)
Every year, thousands of Americans file into a football stadium, and half of all the TVs in America are turned on, to watch the greatest spectacle in American sports, if not all of sports. After hours and hours of pregame speculation and festivities, the national anthem is sung, the coin is tossed, and the game – no ordinary football game – begins under the bright lights. The most creative commercials of the year air in-between the action, and some of the biggest acts in music perform the biggest, most spectacular concert of the year at halftime. Eventually, the game is over, fireworks explode and confetti falls, and a massive tricked-out stage is brought out to present the trophy. It is the biggest, brightest, longest, and most incredible show of the year, the occasion for a virtual national holiday.

And yet, what happened at Super Bowl XLII in Tempe, Arizona in 2008 managed to transcend all of that. If the NFL had the status of the Arena League, this game would still rank highly on this list. If it happened in high school, the participants and highlights would be all over ESPN, and people would be clamoring for the movie rights.

Maybe Douglas Adams was right. Maybe 42 really is the answer to Life, the Universe, and Everything. Or at least, the number of the greatest Super Bowl of all time.

This wasn’t just a great game; this was a sports movie brought to real life. This kind of story just doesn’t happen in the big money world of professional sports, let alone the NFL. If you pitched this script, it wouldn’t be rejected for being too unbelievable; it would be rejected for being too derivative and corny. The Patriots were the perfect villains. Not only did they never lose a game, everyone was certain all year that they cheated to do so, thanks to Eric Mangini reporting Bill Belichick taping signals the first week of the year in what came to be known as the SpyGate scandal. The Giants, meanwhile, had a put-upon quarterback who would never be as good as his brother, were dogged by the Patriots all year (Patriots-Giants wasn’t just the last game of the playoffs, but the last game of the preseason and regular season as well, and the Giants put up a good effort in the regular-season finale that wasn’t good enough, saving that one great victory for when it mattered most and people were most skeptical), and just barely got into the playoffs as a wild card, and through pluck and spunk, defeated bigger, stronger, more favored teams three times on the road to get to the championship game against a true Goliath, already exceeding all expectations. There were some people who thought the Giants could come away with a win, but the Patriots looked like the best team of all time. How could a wild card team hope to knock off the mighty, undefeated Patriots?

The teams took up the entire opening quarter with their opening drives, resulting in the Patriots taking a 7-3 lead, a score that didn’t change in the next two quarters. But Eli Manning caught fire in the final period. He blistered the Patriot defense for 80 yards in 7 plays to put the Giants in the end zone. Giants 10: Patriots 7. But the Giants were playing Tom Brady, and after an exchange of three-and-outs, he drove the Patriots down the field to retake a 14-10 lead with under three minutes to play. The Giants get the ball on their own 17. They get a couple big gains and a short one on 4th and 1. They move five more yards to their own 44. Manning throws the ball and Asante Samuel drops a potential interception. It would have all but ended the game. Instead the Giants still have the ball on 3rd and 5. Manning drops back to pass but the pocket closes in on him. The Patriots defenders surround him for a certain sack… except it isn’t. Manning improbably escapes out of the grasp of the defenders. At this point, if Manning had just made a pitch-and-catch to a wide-open receiver on the sideline right at the marker, or even if he had taken off for the marker himself, or even if he had just thrown an incompletion (stopping the clock and not losing any yardage), or even if the Giants went on to lose, it would still rank among the greatest plays in NFL history.

Instead, he threw it 32 yards down the field to a well-covered David Tyree. Who? David Tyree, a backup receiver known more for his special teams skills who never had more than 19 catches in a single season, who had only four catches for 35 yards this season, who had caught the touchdown earlier in the quarter but who was the intended receiver on the near-interception the previous play. As in all good sports movies, none of the adversity mattered when it mattered most, because Tyree somehow overshadowed the escape Manning had made seconds earlier, pinning the ball against his helmet as he went to the ground. The only way it could have been better would be if Tyree somehow escaped his defender, stayed on his feet, and sprinted down the field for a touchdown (or if Gus Johnson or at least Al Michaels were calling it instead of Joe Buck). Because Tyree pinned the ball against the side of the helmet facing away from the live game camera, Manning’s escape was actually more noticeable and thus easier to appreciate watching live on TV (I wasn’t even sure the pass was complete until I heard and saw confirmation), but Tyree’s catch would be what everyone would remember, perhaps because it’s easier to capture in a single photograph. It would turn out to be his last catch as a Giant. Four plays later, Manning found Plaxico Burress in the end zone and the Giants re-took the lead. But if there’s one thing Tom Brady is known for, it’s Super Bowl-winning drives, even if he only has 35 seconds to do it. He throws an incompletion and gets sacked, then tries a couple deep throws to Randy Moss downfield; surely one of them is for the game-winning touchdown, it’s Tom Brady, after all. But they both fall incomplete and the Giants stun the nation.

The Giants have not won any other playoff games since the Super Bowl-losing 2000 team. But in retrospect, it was the last night of the Patriots dynasty. Brady was injured in the first game of the next season and missed all year, and while his return presaged a division title in 2009, Belichick seemed to lose his magic touch as team chemistry seemed to disintegrate during mid-season struggles, and the Patriots were unceremoniously dumped at home by the Ravens in the playoffs, the first home playoff game lost in the Belichick era. As with other “great” Super Bowls this past decade, the action did not pick up until the final quarter, but Super Bowl XLII still stands as the undisputed greatest game of the past decade, because while sometimes it’s great to see two unstoppable forces squaring off or a great athlete or team prove it when he or it needs to, people always come back to sports for the scrappy underdog who can show them what dreams are made of.

Defending the Current Rooney Rule

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There’s a lot of complaining about NFL teams trying to circumvent the Rooney Rule by making token interviews with potential black coaches and then hiring the guy they wanted to hire all along, and I want to take a few moments to set the record straight.

In the past, the main defense of this practice was that even if they had no chance of getting the job, perhaps they could make an impression that would lead to them getting some job in the future, that would get them into the “good ol’ boys network”. I’m going to say right now that Leslie Frazier is going to be named a head coach in the NFL a year from now, and I’d bet better-than-even odds that he would not have if he weren’t interviewed for the Seahawks job. I mean, every hardcore football fan in America has heard of Frazier now; how many heard of him before he became a symbol of everything “wrong” with the Rooney Rule?

If a team has someone in mind for their head coaching vacancy, why not let them hire that person? I mean, if, as I’ve heard people suggest, the practice constitutes something Roger Goodell needs to do something about, what do you do about it? Do you force teams to hire black head coaches when they don’t want to? Do you force the Seahawks to hire Leslie Frazier instead of Pete Carroll? If not, how do you determine when to lay down the law and when not to? Even when it’s time to lay down the law, how do you do so? How do you close loopholes without getting ridiculous? How do you avoid “reverse racism”? It just seems impossible and unnecessary to enforce the spirit of the law on top of the letter.

Funny how none of the previous instances have resulted in as much outrage as now…

Why the firing of Jim Mora proves the Seahawks will always be mediocre under either the new GM, or Paul Allen’s ownership.

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The Seahawks had a bad season. But their record wasn’t any worse than the Browns who could very easily make the playoffs next year the way they ended this year. Regardless, you can’t say Jim Mora deserved to be fired on his own merits after one season. A team really needs to tank to justify that.

Still, when I heard the news this morning I was willing to consider any number of unfortunate but understandable reasons. Perhaps they had a new GM in mind who didn’t like Mora, or they decided they needed a complete purge and Mora got caught up in that.

But if they fired Jim Mora to hire Pete Carroll, as is being heavily rumored? To go after yet another coach that was great in college but which is far from a guarantee of NFL success – one that has ALREADY proven he couldn’t hang it in the NFL? Carroll, I hope, isn’t deciding one rebuilding year at USC is a sign he’s completely over the hill in college and needs to bolt back to the NFL where he couldn’t hang it.

If the Seahawks are letting themselves toss out a coach that doesn’t deserve it because they’re stupid enough to be blinded by a coach’s credentials in college while ignoring his NFL chops (and before you tell me he has an NFL-style offense and grooms NFL players, keep in mind the struggles of Matt Leinart and Reggie Bush in the NFL), then either whoever made this move as a condition to become GM will be completely unable to turn the Hawks around, or Mike Holmgren was a better GM than we thought to lead the Hawks to the Super Bowl despite Paul Allen’s ownership.

And I’m not even normally a Hawks or Trojans partisan.

Predictions for the Pro Football Hall of Fame Class of 2010

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The Pro Football Hall of Fame’s selections are performed by a panel of 44 leading NFL media members including representatives of all 32 NFL teams, a representative of the Pro Football Writers of America, and 11 at-large writers.

The panel has selected a list of 15 finalists from the modern era, defined as playing all or part of their careers within the last 25 years. A player must have spent 5 years out of the league before they can be considered for induction into the Hall of Fame. Players that last played in the 2004 season will be eligible for induction in 2010.

During Super Bowl Weekend, the panel will meet and narrow down the list of modern-era finalists down to five. Those five will be considered alongside two senior candidates, selected by a nine-member subpanel of the larger panel last August, for a total of seven. From this list, at least four and no more than seven people will be selected for induction into the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

My prediction for the Pro Football Hall of Fame Class of 2010 is:

Jerry Rice
Emmitt Smith
Shannon Sharpe
John Randle
Russ Grimm

Hall of Fame Game: 49ers v. Cowboys

2009 Golden Bowl Tournament: Sugar Bowl Semifinal

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Sugar Bowl: #6 TCU v. #2 Cincinnati
In real life, the impact of this game, as the “non-traditional” championship game compared to the “traditionalist” Rose Bowl, has been blunted by both teams losing their bowl games. And since TCU beat Florida (in the quarters), who beat Cincinnati (in real life), it would seem to suggest TCU will be the favorite. Which is exactly what happened – and they did it in such a way that, without the knowledge that the real life Horned Frogs lost to Boise State and combined with the convincing quarterfinal win over Florida, it may be hard to call the Rose Bowl winner a convincing favorite. TCU sure doesn’t look like a mid-major team.

Cincinnati had the ball to start the game, and Tony Pike had a 15-yard completion to Mardy Gilyard on second down, followed by an Isaiah Pead run to midfield for six yards, but he was stopped behind the line on second down and the Bearcats were forced to punt. TCU went three-and-out with a fumble and Cincinnati looked to have the early momentum. But they went three-and-out as well, and on the Frogs’ next play from scrimmage Joseph Turner pounded ahead for an 18-yard gain, putting TCU across midfield after a face mask penalty. TCU couldn’t do anything and was forced to punt, but Cincinnati didn’t get very far either despite an 11-yard Pead run and an 8-yard run by Jacob Ramsey that both went for first downs. TCU went three-and-out again, but Pike was picked on the very next play, and TCU had the momentum for good. Andy Dalton made a long completion to Jeremy Kerley, and Matt Tucker pounded ahead for a six-yard touchdown to take the early lead. The teams traded three-and-outs across the quarter break.

Cincinnati managed to pick up a first down but a big sack of Pike helped force a punt despite crossing midfield. A Dalton pass to Evan Frosch and 7-yard Tucker run crossed midfield, but the drive stalled and TCU punted the ball back. But after the defense forces yet another three-and-out, the ensuing punt is returned almost to midfield, and a completion to Bart Johnson for 23 yards pretty much puts the Horned Frogs in field goal range, allowing them to take a 10-point lead. The Bearcats then engage in their most productive drive of the half: after a second down sack pinned the Bearcats behind their own 20, Pike makes a 27-yard completion to Gilyard and follows that up with a 15-yard Pead run and a 17-yard completion to Ben Guidugli that puts them inside the 30. But a Ramsey 8-yard run is negated by an illegal motion penalty the following play, and Pike is sacked out of field goal range on third down, forcing a turnover on downs. Dalton makes a long completion to Logan Brock but can’t do anything with it, but while Guidugli makes a long completion there isn’t enough time to do anything with it. Cincinnati enters the break down 10-0 and unable to so much as attempt a field goal, and pundits note that TCU is winning the game because their defense is outplaying the Bearcat defense.

TCU gets the ball to start the second half and makes the most of it, the highlights being a long completion to Kerley and Dalton dancing inside the pylon for eight yards, ultimately setting up a field goal that gives TCU a 13-point lead that seems twice that size. Things seem to go well for Cincinnati at first as well, with a 25-yard completion to DJ Woods, but another pass to Armon Binns results in what replay confirms as a fumble, giving TCU the ball right back. TCU can’t do much more than a pass to Johnson across midfield, and punts the ball into the end zone, starting another productive Bearcat drive, starting with another long completion to Gilyard, 17 yards on third and 12. Jamar Howard gets involved for the next first down, and Gilyard makes a nine-yard completion for another first down, but once again the Horned Frogs lock down inside the 40 and force Cincinnati to go for it on fourth down, this time getting a sack that gives TCU great field position to start the final period. By the end of the day, Pike is sacked nine times by eight different players and, combined with four rushing attempts, loses a total of a whopping 62 yards on the ground by himself. Turner would be named the MVP for his 17 rushes for 81 yards and a touchdown, emblematic of TCU’s overall rushing success, but the defense is the real star of the day.

TCU misses the field goal created by the turnover, but Pike throws his second interception, Ross Evans quickly redeems himself, and TCU, as though they weren’t in command already, puts the game away for the remainder of the final period, scoring a touchdown after Cincinnati punts on their next drive only to see it returned inside the 30, and scoring another touchdown, Turner’s, later on. Cincinnati is unable to score all day, or even attempt a field goal, and notice is served to Alabama and Texas that they do not have the de facto national championship game.
Final score: TCU 30, Cincinnati 0

Preview of the Golden Bowl coming either if and when I simulate a bowl only affected by the Golden Bowl Tournament, or when posting my final rankings.

The AFC Wild Card Race As I See It

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I’ve hand-researched all the tiebreakers and, so far as I can tell, here is what each team needs to have happen to get in, simplified to be as easy to understand as possible, with some possible errors. This does not reflect seeding, though teams at 8-7 are ranked in rough seed order. The Jaguars would be the 5, while the Dolphins can’t be anything but the six seed.

  • Jets: Win OR BAL, DEN, HOU, MIA, and JAX loss.
  • Ravens: Win and you’re in, lose and you’re out.
  • Broncos: Win and PIT and (NYJ or BAL) loss OR Win and (NYJ or BAL) loss and HOU win OR PIT and any three of NYJ, BAL, HOU, or JAX loss.
  • Texans: Win and any two of NYJ, BAL, or DEN loss.
  • Steelers: Win and HOU and (NYJ or BAL) loss OR Win and NYJ, DEN, and BAL loss.
  • Dolphins: Win and NYJ, BAL, HOU, and JAX loss.
  • Jaguars: Win and any three of NYJ, BAL, HOU, or PIT loss.

Revisiting Da Blog’s 2009 Predictions

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One year ago, I gave you my predictions for the year ahead, and for years to come. How did I do? Let’s take a look:

  • The year in sports is a massive disappointment. Not really. I predicted a Dolphins-Vikings Super Bowl, and we did get one team that wasn’t exactly a “name” team, and the Steelers kinda sorta pulled the same trick they did three years before, though not quite as surprising. But who would have guessed that the Vikings would have actually been a name team by the end of the year? Or that we’d get a Super Bowl that people were hailing as the best ever one year after Patriots-Giants? The national championship game in college basketball did go back to being a laugher, but while North Carolina didn’t go undefeated, far from losing in the Final Four, they won the whole thing. Neither the Cavs nor Spurs made the NBA Finals, and LeBron to the Knicks is still a very real possibility, but the new hot idea is teaming LeBron and Dwayne Wade somewhere. The Stanley Cup Finals turned out to be Red Wings-Pens again, and America tuned in as much as they ever do for hockey, but if it’s Red Wings-Pens a third time I think we will start to tune out. Philadelphia made the World Series again, and the Red Sox lost in the first round, but far from not making the ALCS, the Yankees won the whole thing.
  • Tiger Woods did indeed fail to win a major, though he didn’t miss much time, but no one could have predicted what happened to him by year’s end. Jimmie Johnson did indeed win another Sprint Cup in a laugher – NASCAR really needs to review the Chase idea to see if there’s something about the structure of the Chase that Jimmie is exploiting. But far from not making a major final, Roger Federer made every major final, and won twice. There were five undefeated college football teams at season’s end, not three after Week 4, but I picked two of them – but I sure as hell didn’t pick what happened to USC this season, and while it was a down year for mid-majors in general, we got two BCS busters and the closest any mid-major team has yet gotten to making the national championship game. The Arena League, who I may have had in mind when I predicted one league would completely cancel a season, folded entirely, but MLS seems strong as ever, and the IRL isn’t cutting back at all, even adding a title sponsor. But NASCAR may well pass it backwards anyway… and the UFC certainly attracted a lot of attention for UFC 100. These are stories to watch for the next decade.
  • We don’t know what’s happening with the Olympics or NHL contracts, but we do know they won’t be in Chicago. Rio won’t be all bad for American television, but still.
  • “The Saints challenge for the NFC South” indeed! “The Lions are at least respectable”… not so much, though I will say right now that the Browns or Raiders will make the playoffs in the 2010 season. Brett Favre did retire, but then he unretired again, but the Jets hold their own playoff destiny in their own hands. Matt Cassel joined the Chiefs and Super Bowl contenders they are not, but it’s still too early to say he (and thus, Tom Brady) was entirely a creation of Bill Belichick. (Wasn’t he injury-rattled this year?) The Pats are back in the AFC East driver’s seat, the Cowboys are in the playoffs, have shook off the December blues, and could take the division, and Vince Young is officially Tennessee’s quarterback of the future.
  • I actually made three different predictions for the year in politics. Sadly, the first one seems to be the closest to coming to pass. Troops aren’t even entirely out of Iraq yet, though we have stopped paying attention to it. Most of Obama’s stimulus plans are gimmicky (Cash for Clunkers, anyone?) and don’t provide enough PR boost. The politics of the last eight years don’t change and in fact get worse, because they involve cultural factors bigger than any politician, and can only be changed by the people taking part in it – us. (In retrospect, Obamamania is a symptom of a persistent problem the Left has these days, of assuming that if we just elect enough right-thinking politicians, everything will be hunky-dory. It blinds the Left to politics’ limitations and to other avenues to change, which led the Right to beat them at what used to be their own game this year with the tea parties and town halls, as well as the reasons why electing the right politicians can be so hard.) The Left still loves Obama, though some people don’t find him leftist enough, and the tea partiers don’t find many in their own party rightist enough, which scares me in terms of what the politics of the next decade will be like. I don’t normally make New Year’s resolutions per se, but mine is to try to do something to change the state of politics in this country before it’s too late. Interestingly, the tea partiers and people like Glenn Beck make Ron Paul’s views more mainstream, while the GOP base still defends what Bush did as president, so my “fascist-anarchist” GOP prediction isn’t far off.
  • The Internet’s metamorphosis this year basically amounts to the rise of Twitter; it doesn’t seem to be benefiting from the recession as much as I thought, though the rest of my prediction may yet come to pass this year.
  • Because of that, webcomics haven’t exploded yet, though we may yet see a new golden age in this coming decade. Sandsday won’t be part of it though, and I still intend to revisit my State of Webcomics Address.
  • The people who read my webcomics criticism, including what amounts to semi-big names in webcomics, like it, but there aren’t enough of them. I didn’t really do much to attract new audiences to politics other than the Sandsday global warming series. I’m effectively repeating this point for the coming year.

2009 Golden Bowl Tournament Quarterfinals

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#8 Miami (FL) v. #1 Alabama
Mark Ingram showed everyone why he won the Heisman four minutes into the game when he broke out a 71-yard touchdown run. But that seemed to be the exception and not the rule. Jacory Harris was six-for-six on the ensuing drive and got the Hurricanes close enough for a 41-yard field goal, which was made. The Canes defense held Bama to a three-and-out, and on the ensuing drive, the Tide was called for unnecessary roughness, which helped set up a touchdown to take the lead entering the second quarter. It would be the last time Miami scored. The Tide defense buckled down and not only forced a three-and-out on Miami’s next drive, they returned the ensuing punt into Canes territory, setting up a Trent Richardson touchdown – although the extra point was shanked.

Miami picked up two first downs the rest of the half and another big punt return set up a Tide field goal to give Alabama a 16-10 halftime lead, still not insurmountable, and indeed Brad Smelley coughs up the football on Alabama’s first drive of the second half. But the defense forces yet another three-and-out, Bama gets another big punt return (though Leigh Tiffin can’t convert from 50 this time), and on Bama’s next drive a big completion to Darius Hanks and a 16-yard Richardson run helps set up a successful try from 28 yards. Then Bama forces another three-and-out and blocks the punt outright, setting up an Ingram touchdown and sending people filing for the exits, even with Miami only down two scores. Miami finally picks up a first down late in the quarter but can’t do anything with it, and their only serious comeback attempt starts with 4:22 left on the clock, after Bama has added another touchdown. Harris drives the Canes to the Tide 24, but gets picked off on fourth down. Ingram is the player of the game again with 205 yards on 27 carries, including two of over 20 yards, and two touchdowns.
Final score: Miami (FL) 10, Alabama 33

#7 Iowa v. #2 Cincinnati
So apparently if Cincinnati were playing for the national championship Brian Kelly would have continued coaching the Bearcats and made Notre Dame wait. One more example of how the Golden Bowl changes college football history, and Exhibit A for how the BCS keeps smaller schools down. And good thing, because like Cincinnati’s quarterfinal game last year, the Bearcats would need everything they could get.

Iowa returns the opening kickoff to the 37 and picks up a first down and moves into Bearcat territory. But the drive is stuffed, Iowa punts, and Tony Pike goes 4-for-5 on the ensuing 71-yard field goal drive. Iowa is pinned at the 19, called for holding, and forced to punt, which the Bearcats return to the 43, setting up a 41-yard field goal attempt. The kick is no good, but Ricky Stanzi gets picked off and the Bearcats end the quarter with first-and-ten on the Hawkeye 16 and about to win this one going away. But Pike can’t complete three straight passes and the Bearcats are forced to settle for a field goal. No problem: the defense has the Hawkeyes bottled up… except they don’t. Stanzi goes 4-for-4 with two passes of over 20 yards as he leads the Hawkeyes on a 79-yard touchdown drive. Iowa 7: Cincinnati 6.

Pike gets a big completion to Mardy Gilyard for the first down, but once again fails to complete three straight passes and is forced to punt. Iowa responds by driving all the way to the Bearcat 17, where Daniel Murray shanks a 34-yard field goal wide left. Suddenly the Hawkeyes seem to have all the momentum in the quarter. Pike leads the Bearcats on a long drive, going 6 for his first 7 passes en route to the Hawkeye 15, but gets picked off and, despite another missed Murray field goal to end the half (this one from 58 yards), Iowa leads Cincinnati heading into the break.

Another shock awaits to start the second half: Zach Collaros taking over at quarterback. All the stories of how Kelly’s tough love saved Pike’s career, and it’s looking to have a disappointing ending. After the kickoff is returned inside the Bearcat 40, Collaros goes 4 for 5 and completes the Bearcats’ first touchdown, retaking a 13-7 lead. Iowa responds on their next drive: pinned on their own 10 by a holding penalty on the kickoff, Adam Robinson immediately breaks off a 49-yard run, helping set up a 31-yard field goal that makes it through the uprights this time. After the ensuing kickoff is returned inside the 40 again, Kelly puts Pike back in, and he promptly completes long passes to Gilyard and Ben Guidugli to put the ball at the 27. The next three plays, though, are an incompletion, a scramble, and an incompletion, and to add insult to injury the 42-yard field goal attempt bounces off the upright.

Iowa strikes right back with long runs by Robinson and Brandon Wegher, but for the last four minutes of the quarter the quarterbacks catch interception fever. Stanzi gets picked when the Hawkeyes have made it to the Bearcat 11, and a long completion to Armon Binns and unnecessary roughness penalty against the Hawkeyes basically put the Bearcats inside Iowa territory again, but Pike throws a pick of his own… only for Stanzi to get picked again on the very next play. Pike starts the next quarter with a 14-yard completion to Gilyard to set up first and goal, but once again misses both of his pass attempts, forcing a field goal. Cincinnati still leads 16-10, but how tempted must Kelly be to put Collaros back in?

Stanzi completes three out of three passes on the ensuing drive and Paki O’Meara gets a huge 14 yard run to the 30, but after that the drive stalls and the 39-yard field goal attempt doesn’t make it. Pike’s job now is simply to run as much time off the clock as he can, which he and the running game do admirably. It’s a surprisingly pass-heavy drive, but Pike’s receivers are smart enough to stay inbounds, it’s hard to blame the stall of the drive on Pike, and once the 46-yard field goal splits the uprights to increase the lead to nine, there’s only 5:43 left to make up a two-score deficit. But Iowa’s ensuing drive starts beautifully: Stanzi to Marvin McNutt, 12 yards, first down. Wegher picks up 15 yards on a draw, first down. Iowa runs the same play and gets stopped for two yards, but the defense gets flagged for unnecessary roughness: 15 yards, automatic first down. Just like that, Iowa has the ball on the 20 with 4:38 left. Stanzi throws his first two passes not caught by a member of either team  since 8:11 remained in the third quarter, but completes it on third down to Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, who just stretches across the first-down marker. One Robinson run later, and Iowa is within two.

With four minutes left, Kirk Ferentz shows a tremendous amount of trust in his defense – despite the fact that they have typically only stopped Pike when they got close to the end zone – by kicking the ball away. This will be one of the most important drives of the game. Jacob Ramsey starts the clock-milking with a 7-yard draw, and Pike picks up the first down with an 11-yard completion to Robinson – already a minute has gone off the clock. Pike throws an incompletion, but then hits Marcus Barnett to midfield two yards short of the marker, and Isaiah Pead picks up another 13 yards for the first down. With less than two minutes left, Iowa calls one of its two remaining timeouts after Ramsey picks up another six yards, setting up 2nd and 4. Pike steps back to pass, hands the ball off to Pead…

…who promptly breaks through the defense for 13 yards.

There will be many stories told about the game: Gilyard’s 130 yards on just seven catches, the Hawkeye defense nearly justifying Big Ten love and big East hate, questions as to whether Collaros will get more playing time in the next round, Ferentz’s gamble that didn’t pay off. But the bottom line is, Cincinnati is in the next round, and Iowa is not… and like a lot of things about the Hawkeyes’ season, it doesn’t matter how they got there.
Final score: Iowa 17, Cincinnati 19

#6 TCU v. #3 Florida
The big breaking news story the day of the game is Urban Meyer’s decision to leave Florida once the Gators are done playing. Meyer would soften his position the next day to a “leave of absence”, but people don’t know that yet, and as far as anyone knows this isn’t just Tim Tebow’s last game in the Swamp, but Meyer’s as well, and the Gators owe it to everyone in attendance to give them a great game.

They don’t get it.

Oh, for most of the way it’s close. But the tone was really set on the opening drive when Andy Dalton hit Bart Johnson for 35 yards, followed by Matthew Tucker opening up a 37-yard touchdown run. After that it becomes a defensive battle, with neither team doing much of anything until three minutes into the second period, when Chris Rainey broke open a 42-yard touchdown run to tie the game. But TCU gets the ball near the 40 on the ensuing kickoff and Joseph Turner breaks open a 55-yard run to the 7, seemingly setting up an easy touchdown, but Matthew Tucker gets nailed behind the line on third and goal from the 4 to force a field goal to re-take the lead. Another 55-yard run, this time by Tucker, sets up another field goal to increase the lead to six, and the main reason TCU doesn’t get another on the next drive is because the punt that set it up pinned them at the two. TCU misses another field goal attempt before the half, but the momentum is clearly in the Horned Frogs’ favor.

On TCU’s first drive of the half, helped by big runs from Turner and Ed Wesley, the Frogs tack on another field goal. Tebow calls his own number on a draw play on the Gators’ first play from scrimmage on the ensuing drive, picking up 23 yards, but it starts nothing. The teams trade three-and-outs for most of the rest of the quarter, before a TCU drive picks up some first downs but stalls at midfield. But they return Florida’s punt back to midfield, and a 23-yard completion from Dalton to Wesley helps set up a touchdown that puts the Horned Frogs up 16 and effectively puts the game away. After the teams trade three-and-outs, Tebow attempts to run for the first down on 4th and 5, but gets nowhere, setting up a field goal. Turner tacks on a 27-yard touchdown run late to add more insult to injury – appropriate that the man who ran 18 times for 155 yards would add a touchdown as well. The Gators finally get a drive going, but it’s 33-7 with 2:31 left, and Tebow is shown crying on the sidelines as Dalton takes the final knees, justifying the presence of the little guys once and for all.
Final score: TCU 33, Florida 7

#13 Boise State v. #5 Texas
Three undefeateds had already moved on, and an undefeated team was going to be the national champion. But the loser of this game wasn’t going to lose their undefeated status easily.

On the second play from scrimmage, Tre Newton broke open a 56-yard run to the Bronco 14, but the Longhorns could do nothing with it and settled for a field goal. They were better the next drive after returning a punt to their own  44, resulting in Newton pounding the rock for a 14-yard touchdown run. Boise struck back when Kellen Moore connected with Kirby Moore for 32 yards, setting up a field goal of their own, but a long pass from Colt McCoy to Malcolm Williams that was only brought down on the 4 set up another touchdown, giving Texas a 17-3 lead. But anyone thinking the Broncos would take this lying down were in for a rude awakening when Doug Masrtin broke off a 64-yard touchdown run of his own. That was just the first quarter; anyone expecting an offensive shootout seemed vindicated when McCoy connected with Vondrell McGee for 34 yards early in the second, allowing McCoy to go the remaining 9 yards himself, only to see Boise start the next drive on the 39, and Kellen Moore connect with Kyle Efaw for another big gain, setting up another field goal. No worries: McCoy connects with Jordan Shipley for 35 yards en route to a field goal of their own. Texas leads 27-13 and there’s still five minutes left in the first half.

But neither team scores before halftime, and the game becomes downright defensive in the third quarter. Neither team collects a first down until McCoy connects with James Kirkendoll over four minutes in; a later 25-yard pass to Shipley helps set up a field goal, the only score of the quarter for either side. After another Boise three-and-out, McCoy leads Texas on another long drive that puts the Longhorns on the Bronco 9 to end the quarter, seemingly about to put an already 17-point game away for good. But something about the quarter break awakens the Broncos, and on the first play of the new quarter, McCoy gets picked off and Kyle Wilson makes it all the way to his own 22 before being tackled. Jeremy Avery proceeds to break off a 40-yard touchdown run. McCoy is intercepted again, and Avery breaks off another 40-yard touchdown run. Boise State 27: Texas 30.

Thus begins the most crucial drive of the game, with McCoy needing to bleed as much of the 11 minutes left on the clock as he can without losing the football. McGee gets stuffed on first down, so McCoy connects with Shipley for gains of ten and nine yards. Newton picks up the first down, then McCoy returns to the air, connecting with Cody Johnson for seven yards, then McCoy is forced out of the pocket and collects a yard himself. Johnson picks up the first down, then McGee collects another four yards and McCoy connects with Dan Buckner for ten and Shipley for twelve. Two plays later, McGee finishes off the remaining ten yards, putting the lead back at ten with 5:26 left. The Broncos can’t let Texas get the ball again.

The drive doesn’t start off well, but Titus Young has an 18-yard catch on fourth down that keeps it alive, followed by another 12-yard catch by Austin Pettis on second. But on the next second down, Kellen Moore is picked off. A few first downs later, and Texas escapes Austin with a game that, depending on your point of view, was closer than the final score indicated or not as close as the final score. Shipley had 147 yards on 10 catches, but Avery had two big touchdown runs – both were stars on this night, even as the quarterbacks shined brightly.
Final score: Boise State 27, Texas 37 (This is why I’m not quite agreeing with the simulation’s pick of Avery as the player of the game, because when it comes to mishandling knees, this one takes the cake. So McCoy takes a first-down snap with 2:01 left and gets four on a pass to Kirkendoll, no doubt taking several seconds off the clock. I can buy that. Then on second down, McCoy takes a knee… with 90, not 80, seconds left. Then, even though his idiocy means he can no longer run out the clock, he takes another knee on third down, leaving Texas to kick a field goal. Then Avery manages to break off a 50-yard run to set up a touchdown in the remaining time. Thankfully Texas recovers the ensuing onside kick to end this madness, but this is the closest WhatIfSports has gotten to giving me a Miracle in the Meadowlands situation, and one of these days it’s going to give me one for real. I mean, c’mon man! I don’t know how hard it is to program the simulator to handle knees right, but surely it can’t be that hard to make it figure out that under no circumstances should a knee be taken on second down with more than 80 seconds left on the clock!)

Semifinal matchups:

Rose Bowl: Texas v. Alabama
Procrastination saves the day! Off to the Capitol One and Holiday bowls with Ohio State and Oregon, because I still won’t be simulating this even though the real game is a week later. Two top defenses (even though Boise State cracked it) and two Heisman contenders.

Sugar Bowl: TCU v. Cincinnati
The game everyone would rather have happened for real rather than Florida-Cincinnati or TCU-Boise State. Two top-notch offenses square off, but TCU has the defense to back it up, a defense that held the mighty Tim Tebow to seven points. This could be an epic Golden Bowl from a posting perspective, because it’ll be the two biggest real-life claimants to a national title left (assuming Boise doesn’t score a real-life upset).

Non-semifinal BCS bowls:
Cotton Bowl: Iowa v. Boise State
Orange Bowl: Miami (FL) v. Florida

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch and Playoff Watch: Week 15

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NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind):

  • Begins Sunday of Week 11
  • In effect during Weeks 11-17
  • Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
  • The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:20 p.m. ET.
  • The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
  • The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:20 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
  • The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
  • Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
  • NFL schedules all games.
  • Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
  • Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and could not protect any games Week 17 in 2007. Unless I find out otherwise, I’m assuming that’s still the case this year, especially with no tentative game listed Week 17. When looking up info on what the protected games might be, I found out that games were protected after Week FIVE this year, and presumably in some of the previous years. Previously all I knew was that games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling.
  • Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.
  • A rule that may have come to light late last year but that, given its restrictiveness and lateness in coming to light, I’m having trouble accepting, is that the balance of primetime games taken from FOX and CBS can’t go beyond 22-20 one way or the other. The current tally is FOX 20, CBS 21.

Week 17 (January 3 Playoff Positioning Watch):

AFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION LEADERS WILD CARD WAITING IN THE WINGS (6-8)
EAST
49-5		 58-6
7-7
NORTH
39-5		 68-6
8-6
WEST
211-3		 6 teams at 7-7
CLINCHED
SOUTH
114-0
CLINCHED
ALL DIVISION LEADERS HAVE CLINCHED AT LEAST A PLAYOFF SPOT
  • AFC East: Patriots (@Texans) lead by two over Dolphins (v. Steelers) and Jets, both of which they split the series with. (Since Miami swept the Jets a three-way tie would go to the Dolphins.) The Patriots and Dolphins each have divisional records of 4-2 to the Jets’ 2-4, eliminating the Jets, and I’ll wait to research common games until Sunday.
  • AFC North: Bengals (@Jets) lead, Ravens (@Raiders) a game back, Steelers out by being swept.
  • AFC South: Colts clinched.
  • AFC West: Chargers clinched.
  • AFC Wild Card: If the season ended today, the Broncos (v. Chiefs) and Ravens would get the nod (the Ravens beat the Broncos earlier in the season). The Dolphins, Jets, Steelers, Jaguars (@Browns), Texans, and Titans (@Seahawks) are a game back.
  • AFC Playoff Positioning Among Division Winners: Colts have locked up the 1. Chargers (v. Redskins) have a two-game lead for the two over the Bengals and Patriots. Bengals-Jets and Dolphins-Steelers the main AFC contenders, but a lot depends on how the wild Wild Card shakes out.
NFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION LEADERS WILD CARD WAITING IN THE WINGS (7-7)
WEST
49-5		 59-5 *
CLINCHED
EAST
310-4		 69-5
9-5
NORTH
211-3		 8-6
9-5
SOUTH
113-1
CLINCHED
OUT ON TIEBREAKERS CLINCHED PLAYOFF SPOT,
POSSIBLY DIVISION		 CLINCHED 1st-RD BYE
  • NFC East: Eagles (@Cowboys) lead, Cowboys a game back, Giants two back. Because the Cowboys and Eagles play each other, the scenario that ends with the Giants tied for the division creates a three-way tie. The Cowboys would lose the division tiebreaker and the Eagles swept the Giants, so the Eagles would win the division.
  • NFC North: Vikings lead by 2 games over Packers, and I don’t know if you noticed, but the Vikings swept that series.
  • NFC South: Saints clinched.
  • NFC West: Cardinals clinched.
  • NFC Wild Card: The Packers (@Cardinals) and Cowboys would get the nod if the season ended today (Green Bay beat Dallas), with the Giants (@Vikings) a game back and the Falcons waiting in the wings but would still finish with a worse conference record than the Packers or Cowboys.
  • NFC Playoff Positioning Among Division Winners: Saints (@Panthers) lead by two over Vikings, but scenario that leads to tie would give the Vikings a better conference record. Vikings lead by one over Eagles, who lead by one over Cardinals.
  • Analysis: The NFC definitely has the better games with Cowboys-Eagles and Giants-Vikings, but the NFL showed last year they’re more concerned with making sure the game has playoff implications no matter what happens when we get to primetime, which would seem to favor the AFC’s chaotic race at the moment… unless the very likely case happens where Cowboys-Eagles is an effective NFC East title game, even if the loser is still in the playoffs. (See why Broncos-Eagles wasn’t picked for Week 16?) This year I’ll track evolving playoff scenarios on Twitter this Sunday.