Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 6

Since it started in its current format as the NFL’s main primetime package in 2006, the defining feature of NBC’s Sunday Night Football has been the use of flexible scheduling to ensure the best matchups and showcase the best teams as the season goes along. Well, that’s the theory, anyway; the reality has not always lived up to the initial hype and has at times seemed downright mystifying. Regardless, I’m here to help you figure out what you can and can’t expect to see on Sunday nights on NBC.

A full explanation of all the factors that go into flexible scheduling decisions can be found on my NFL Flexible Scheduling Primer, but here’s the Cliffs Notes version with all the important points you need to know:

  • The season can be broken down into three different periods (four if you count the first four weeks where flexible scheduling does not apply at all) for flexible scheduling purposes, each with similar yet different rules governing them: the early flex period, from weeks 5 to 10; the main flex period, from weeks 11 to 16; and week 17. In years where Christmas forces either the Sunday afternoon slate or the Sunday night game to Saturday in Week 16, flex scheduling does not apply that week, and the main flex period begins week 10.
  • In all cases, only games scheduled for Sunday may be moved to Sunday night. Thursday and Monday night games, as well as late-season Saturday games, are not affected by Sunday night flexible scheduling (discounting the “flexible scheduling” applied to Saturday of Week 16 in recent years and Week 15 this year – see below).
  • During the early and main flex periods, one game is “tentatively” scheduled for Sunday night and listed with the Sunday night start time of 8:20 PM ET. This game will usually remain at that start time and air on NBC, but may be flexed out for another game and moved to 1, 4:05, or 4:25 PM ET on Fox or CBS, no less than 12 days in advance of the game.
  • No more than two games can be flexed to Sunday night over the course of the early flex period. If the NFL wishes to flex out a game in the early flex period twelve days in advance, CBS and Fox may elect to protect one game each from being moved to Sunday night. This is generally an emergency valve in situations where the value of the tentative game has plummeted since the schedule was announced, namely in cases of injury to a key star player.
  • CBS and Fox may also each protect games in five out of six weeks of the main flex period, but all of those protections must be submitted after week 5, week 4 in years where the main flex period begins week 10 (so it is always six weeks before the start of the main flex period).
  • No team may appear more than six times across the league’s three primetime packages on NBC, ESPN, and Fox/NFL Network, and only three teams are allowed to appear that often, with everyone else getting five. In addition, no team may appear more than four times on NBC. All teams’ number of appearances heading into this season may be seen here.
  • According to the league’s official page, teams are notified when “they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.” However, they rarely make this known to the fans, and the list of each network’s protections has never officially been made public. It used to leak fairly regularly, but has not leaked since 2014.
  • In all cases, the NFL is the ultimate arbiter of the schedule and consults with CBS, Fox, and NBC before moving any games to prime time. If the NFL does elect to flex out the Sunday night game, the network whose game is flexed in may receive the former tentative game, regardless of which network would “normally” air it under the “CBS=AFC, Fox=NFC” rules, keeping each network’s total number of games constant. At the same time, the NFL may also move games between 1 PM ET and 4:05/4:25 PM ET. However, this feature focuses primarily if not entirely on Sunday night flexible scheduling.
  • In Week 17, the entire schedule is set on only six days notice, ensuring that NBC gets a game with playoff implications, generally a game where the winner is the division champion. More rarely, NBC may also show an intra-division game for a wild card spot, or a game where only one team wins the division with a win but doesn’t win the division with a loss, but such situations are rare and 2018 was the first time it showed such a game. If no game is guaranteed to have maximum playoff implications before Sunday night in this fashion, the league has been known not to schedule a Sunday night game at all. To ensure maximum flexibility, no protections or appearance limits apply to Week 17. The NFL also arranges the rest of the schedule such that no team playing at 4:25 PM ET (there are no 4:05 games Week 17) could have their playoff fate decided by the outcome of the 1 PM ET games, which usually means most if not all of the games with playoff implications outside Sunday night are played at 4:25 PM ET.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 22):

  • Tentative game: Kansas City @ Las Vegas
  • Prospects: 5-1 v. 3-2. With the Raiders accounting for the Chiefs’ one loss, this game has a decent chance of deciding the division.
  • Likely protections: Titans-Ravens (CBS) and Cowboys-Vikings, Packers-Colts, or nothing (FOX).
  • Other possible games: CBS’ listed protection comes with the caveat that this game only falls in this week because of being postponed earlier in the season. Assuming they were allowed to protect it (or bothered to do so because I struggled to find an unprotected week, or even a week without an obvious protection, for CBS, so it could be any of their singleheaders), Eagles-Browns and Packers-Colts are the main options with Dolphins-Broncos and Lions-Panthers as dark horses.

Week 12 (November 29):

  • Tentative game: Chicago @ Green Bay
  • Prospects: 5-1 v. 4-1. After last year’s disappointing campaign, the Bears are back to their form from two years ago, and these two teams retain a significant lead over the rest of the division. NBC could end up airing the other half of this rivalry in Week 17 to decide the division.
  • Likely protections: Chiefs-Bucs (CBS) and Cardinals-Patriots, Niners-Rams, or nothing (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Thanksgiving weekend, paucity of good games, though the NFC East tire fire means the Cowboys’ Thanksgiving game isn’t taking away any teams with winning records, and in fact Ravens-Steelers accounts for the only two teams above .500 playing on Thanksgiving. Titans-Colts and Niners-Rams are the best unprotected games with Cardinals-Patriots and Saints-Broncos dark horses.

Week 13 (December 6):

  • Tentative game: Denver @ Kansas City
  • Prospects: 2-3 v. 5-1. Still decently lopsided (and frankly this game looked like it might have a decent shot of being flexed out even before the season started), but the Broncos are now only a game behind the Raiders for second place in the division.
  • Likely protections: Eagles-Packers (CBS) and Football Team-Steelers or Rams-Cardinals (FOX).
  • Other possible games: I don’t think the Browns have ever been flexed into a Sunday night game, but Browns-Titans has a good chance to do it, though Rams-Cardinals is emerging as strong competition if left unprotected. Lions-Bears is a dark horse, and Lobbyists-Steelers and Giants-Seahawks could also surprise if the road teams remain in the NFC East hunt.

Week 14 (December 13):

  • Tentative game: Pittsburgh @ Buffalo
  • Prospects: 5-0 v. 4-2. Last year this game was the beneficiary of a flex; this year it might pit two division leaders against one another.
  • Likely protections: Colts-Raiders if anything (CBS) and Saints-Eagles (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Assuming I have the protections right and Colts-Raiders is actually protected, Packers-Lions and Broncos-Panthers are the only options to even involve teams with a minimum of two wins, though Snyders-Niners or Cardinals-Giants could have impact on the NFC East race.

Week 15 (December 15):

  • Tentative game: San Francisco @ Dallas
  • Prospects: 3-3 v. 2-4, but the Cowboys are leading the division (!) and it might be a sign of the apocalypse if they were ever flexed out of Sunday night.
  • Likely protections: Chiefs-Saints (CBS) and Seahawks-Football Team, Eagles-Cardinals, or nothing (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Assuming the games that have been set aside for a potential move to Saturday can’t be protected, which mostly affects Panthers-Packers. If that game moves to Saturday, Fox’s unprotected game(s), plus Browns-Giants, are probably the best options just because of the NFC East tire fire (and you already have that division’s most attractive team). Patriots-Dolphins is a dark horse (and it’s the Patriots keeping that game from being a full-fledged option!).

Week 16 (December 22):

  • Tentative game: Tennessee @ Green Bay
  • Prospects: 5-0 v. 4-1 and the Packers no longer even lead the division, but still a matchup of two teams hoping to meet again in the Super Bowl.
  • Likely protections: Colts-Steelers, Rams-Seahawks, or nothing (CBS) and Eagles-Cowboys (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Among the games chosen for a potential move to Saturday, Dolphins-Raiders and Niners-Cardinals both involve two teams at or above .500 with Bucs-Lions not far behind. Nonetheless, CBS’ unprotected games (as this is the most likely week for them to leave unprotected) are still the best options if the Titans and/or Packers collapse. Panthers-Nickname TBD and Giants-Ravens are dark horses.

Week 17 (December 29):

  • Playoff positioning watch begins Week 9 (though it may be delayed because between the new playoff format and Washington going nicknameless I’m going to need to come up with a new Playoff Picture format). For the record, the NFC East games are Cowboys-Giants and Bidens-Eagles.

12 thoughts on “Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 6

  1. That Game Was Flexed And A Very Surprise Flex. I can’t Believe It I was looking foward to Bucs radiers But I Don’t Like The Arizona Cardinals. And I’m Sick Of The Arizona Cardinals Becuase They Have Too Many Star Players To Attract. I Will Watch The World Series Instead.

  2. (Reposted from Watch: Week 5)

    Hi all,

    Since the NFL added Flex Scheduling to Week’s 5 through 10, they have only removed 1 game if my recollection serves me right. And they are only allowed to move 2 of the 6 Weeks’ worth of games.

    My final Week 8 preferences for Sunday Night Football are:

    #1 – Steelers(5-0) @ Ravens(5-1) <—would love to see it, but no chance
    #2 – Raiders(3-2) @ Browns(4-2)
    #3 – 49ers(3-3) @ Seahawks(5-0)
    #4 – Saints(3-2) @ Bears(5-1)
    #5 – Rams(4-2) @ Dolphins(3-3)

    Cowboys(2-4) @ Eagles(1-4-1) <—will stay even if both don't win another game
    before the matchup. Sadly. Morgan is right though. I guess it's for the division lead. Ugh!!!

    My current Week 9 preferences for Sunday Night Football are:

    #1 – Bears(5-1) @ Titans(5-0)
    #2 – Saints(3-2) @ Buccaneers(4-2) <—tentative & likely no change due to the old fart QB matchup from Week 1
    #3 – Ravens(5-1) @ Colts(4-2)
    #4 – Seahawks (5-0) @ Bills (4-2)
    #5 – Dolphins(3-3) @ Cardinals(4-2)
    #6 – Panthers(3-3) @ Chiefs(5-1)

    My current Week 10 preferences for Sunday Night Football are:

    #1 – Seahawks(5-0) @ Rams(4-2)
    #2 – Bills(4-2) @ Cardinals(4-2)
    #3 – 49ers(3-3) @ Saints(3-2)
    #4 – Buccaneers(4-2) @ Panthers(3-3)

    Ravens(5-1) @ Patriots(2-3) <—tentative & should be going nowhere, but if Pats lose again, you never know

    Current Records for Tentative Week 11 Sunday Night Football matchup(start of the main flex period):

    Chiefs(5-1) @ Raiders(3-2) <—looking strong, especially after the Raiders spanked the Chiefs in Week 5

    Current Records for Tentative Week 12 Sunday Night Football matchup:

    Bears(5-1) @ Packers(4-1) <—strong and Thanksgiving weekend
    means less chance

    Current Records for Tentative Week 13 Sunday Night Football matchup:

    Broncos(2-3) @ Chiefs(5-1) <—Broncos could doom this game, but Lock is back so….TBD

    Current Records for Tentative Week 14 Sunday Night Football matchup:

    Steelers(5-0) @ Bills(4-5) <—I still like a Dec. 13th SNF game in Buffalo (brrrrr….)

    Current Records for Tentative Week 15 Sunday Night Football matchup:

    49ers(3-3) @ Cowboys(2-4) <—Cowboys means no moving this, plus some good
    games are going to move to Saturday, lessening the chances even more of a flex

    Current Records for Tentative Week 16 Sunday Night Football matchup:

    Titans(5-0) @ Packers(4-1) <—looking good, plus some good games are going to
    move to Saturday, lessening the chances even more of a flex

    No tentative game for Week 17 & scheduled games are:

    Dolphins(3-3) @ Bills(4-2)
    Jets(0-6) @ Patriots(2-3)
    Ravens(5-1) @ Bengals(1-4-1)
    Steelers(5-0) @ Browns(4-2)
    Jaguars(1-5) @ Colts(4-2)
    Titans(5-0) @ Texans(1-5)
    Chargers(1-4) @ Chiefs(5-1)
    Raiders(3-2) @ Broncos(2-3)
    Cowboys(2-4) @ Giants(1-5)
    Redski…(1-5) @ Eagles(1-4-1)
    Packers(4-1) @ Bears(5-1)
    Vikings(1-5) @ Lions(2-3)
    Saints(3-2) @ Panthers(3-3)
    Falcons(1-5) @ Buccaneers(4-2)
    Cardinals(4-2) @ Rams(4-2)
    Seahawks(5-0) @ 49ers(3-3)

    Go Pack Go this week in Week 7 in Houston. ?

  3. That Buccaneers/Raiders game switched times with Seahawks/Cardinals to ensure that there’s a Sunday Night Football game this week. Due to one Las Vegas’s Offensive Lineman being put on the COVID list and the 5 starting Offensive Lineman having been sent home for precautionary reasons, the NFL didn’t want to be with the scheduled SNF game being canceled.

    The last time that Arizona was on Sunday Night Football was in 2016 I believe. It was also against Seattle and the game ended in a 6-6 tie. I was on my back from Las Vegas (to Los Angeles) and trying to listen to the game with a bunch of static on the radio station that I was listening on. Bizarre-O game. Both kickers blew the pooch multiple times. 😮

  4. Week 15 and Week 16 each have 5 games that can be moved to Saturday from Sunday. The NFL can choose to move a minimum of 2 games and up to 3 games each of these weeks.

    Here’s how things currently look for these Week 15 and Week 16 Saturday games.

    Week 15 potential Saturday games(has to be decided by end of Week 11 at latest):

    Texans(1-5) @ Colts(4-2)
    Panthers(3-3) @ Packers(4-1) <—definitely would be moved, based on records after Week 6
    Bills(4-2) @ Broncos(2-3) <—likely 2nd choice, based on records after Week 6
    Jets(0-6) @ Rams(4-2)
    Lions(2-3) @ Titans(5-0)

    I only see 2 of these 5 moving at the moment.

    Week 16 potential Saturday games(has to be decided by end of Week 12 at latest):

    Dolphins(3-3) @ Raiders(3-2) <—very likely 2nd choice, based on records after Week 6
    Broncos(2-3) @ Chargers(1-4)
    Buccaneers(4-2) @ Lions(2-3)
    49ers(3-3) @ Cardinals(4-2) <—definitely would be moved, based on records after Week 6
    Browns(4-2) @ Jets(0-6)

    I only see 2 of these 5 moving at the moment.

    We'll see how these things pan out as the next few weeks move forward and we get more clarity. However, in this COVID influenced NFL season, anything can change at any time, as the very short notice of a Week 7 SNF change has proven.

    I just hope that we can all stay healthy, get a vaccine ASAP and get back to normal ASAP, and get the 2020 NFL season completed as mostly scheduled.

    Jeff

  5. We know that SEA-ARI was flexed in specifically because there is a chance TB-LV has to be postponed due to the Raiders situation. Since that is now FOX’s only 4:05 game, I suspect we will see either one of FOX’s 1:00 PM games also moved to 4:05 OR possibly BUF-NYJ in an emergency cross-flex from CBS moved to the 4:05 PM slot on FOX (which could be done since the Giants played on Thursday obviously) to assure FOX has a 4:05 game in case TB-LV indeed has to be postponed.

  6. What about the Packers vs. Vikings game on week 8 to be flexed to a new time to 3:25 pm on Fox? I would be surprised if Packers vs. Vikings game at Lambeau Field to be flexed to SNF on week 8 due to either the eagles or cowboys unexpectedly get tested positive on covid despite eagles vs. Cowboys game on week 8 to stay on SNF. Plus another thing, in my opinion, since the packers and bears have good records this season so far, I wouldn’t be surprised if Packers vs. Bears game at soldier field to be flexed to SNF on week 17 in order to decide the NFC North division title despite the Packers vs. Bears game at Lambeau Field on week 12 more likely to stay on SNF next month.

  7. If Andy Dalton isn’t ready to go next week against the Eagles, the NFL really really needs to get the Cowboys Eagles game out the Sunday Night Football slot NOW. No one and I mean no one wants to see the embarrassing Dallas Cowboys embarrass the entire nation after losing to the Washington Football team and the Eagles aren’t very good either. Get this game out of prime-time now and plus no one wants to see the Cowboys 3rd string quarterback on national TV. Raiders Browns anyone?????????????????

  8. Only way that happens is if the Cowboys or Eagles come down with COVID, which was why Bucs-Raiders was moved off SNF and replaced by Seahawks-Cardinals. Cowboys STILL too big of a national draw.

  9. Hi all,

    Since the NFL added Flex Scheduling to Week’s 5 through 10, they have only removed 1 game if my recollection serves me right. And they are only allowed to move 2 of the 6 Weeks’ worth of games.

    My final Week 9 preferences for Sunday Night Football are:

    #1 – Saints(4-2) @ Buccaneers(5-2) <—tentative & likely no change due to the old fart QB matchup from Week 1
    #2 – Ravens(5-1) @ Colts(4-2)
    #3 – Seahawks (5-1) @ Bills (5-2)
    #4 – Bears(5-2) @ Titans(5-1)
    #5 – Dolphins(3-3) @ Cardinals(5-2)

    My current Week 10 preferences for Sunday Night Football are:

    #1 – Seahawks(5-1) @ Rams(5-2)
    #2 – Bills(5-2) @ Cardinals(5-2)
    #3 – 49ers(4-3) @ Saints(4-2)

    Ravens(5-1) @ Patriots(2-4) <—tentative & could we see the Pats flexed out for the 1st time ever because of it being there fault?

    My current Week 10 preferences for Sunday Night Football are:(start of the main flex period):

    #1 – Titans(5-1) @ Ravens(5-1) <—huge revenge game for the Ravens…hmm
    #2 – Packers(5-1) @ Colts(4-2)
    #3 – Chiefs(6-1) @ Raiders(3-3) <—looking more lopsided now, but the Raiders spanked the Chiefs in Week 5, so there's that and I doubt the NFL really wants to take 2 games away from the Raiders and their new stadium.

    Current Records for Tentative Week 12 Sunday Night Football matchup:

    Bears(5-2) @ Packers(5-1) <—currently for division lead and Thanksgiving weekend
    means less chance

    Current Records for Tentative Week 13 Sunday Night Football matchup:

    Broncos(2-4) @ Chiefs(6-1) <—Broncos could doom this game and that's looking more likely and Chiefs by keeping on winning are lessening the chances this game stays as well

    Current Records for Tentative Week 14 Sunday Night Football matchup:

    Steelers(6-0) @ Bills(5-2) <—I still like a Dec. 13th SNF game in Buffalo (brrrrr….)

    Current Records for Tentative Week 15 Sunday Night Football matchup:

    49ers(4-3) @ Cowboys(2-5) <—Cowboys means no moving this, plus some good(?)
    games are going to move to Saturday, lessening the chances even more of a flex

    Current Records for Tentative Week 16 Sunday Night Football matchup:

    Titans(5-1) @ Packers(5-1) <—looking good, plus some good(?) games are going to
    move to Saturday, lessening the chances even more of a flex

    No tentative game for Week 17 & scheduled games are:

    Dolphins(3-3) @ Bills(5-2)
    Jets(0-7) @ Patriots(2-4)
    Ravens(5-1) @ Bengals(1-5-1)
    Steelers(6-0) @ Browns(5-2)
    Jaguars(1-6) @ Colts(4-2)
    Titans(5-1) @ Texans(1-6)
    Chargers(2-4) @ Chiefs(6-1)
    Raiders(3-3) @ Broncos(2-4)
    Cowboys(2-5) @ Giants(1-6)
    Redski…(2-5) @ Eagles(2-4-1)
    Packers(5-1) @ Bears(5-2)
    Vikings(1-5) @ Lions(3-3)
    Saints(4-2) @ Panthers(3-4)
    Falcons(1-6) @ Buccaneers(5-2)
    Cardinals(5-2) @ Rams(5-2)
    Seahawks(5-1) @ 49ers(4-3)

    Go Pack Go this week in Week 8 at Lambeau vs. Vikings (Part Deux). ?

  10. Week 15 and Week 16 each have 5 games that can be moved to Saturday from Sunday. The NFL can choose to move a minimum of 2 games and up to 3 games each of these weeks.

    Here’s how things currently look for these Week 15 and Week 16 Saturday games.

    Week 15 potential Saturday games(has to be decided by end of Week 11 at latest):

    Texans(1-6) @ Colts(5-2) <—no
    Panthers(3-4) @ Packers(5-1) <—probably would be moved, based on records after Week 7
    Bills(5-2) @ Broncos(2-4) <—???
    Jets(0-7) @ Rams(5-2) <—no
    Lions(3-3) @ Titans(5-1) <—best chance to be moved, based on records after Week 7

    I only see 2 of these 5 moving at the moment.

    Week 16 potential Saturday games(has to be decided by end of Week 12 at latest):

    Dolphins(3-3) @ Raiders(3-3) <—good 3rd option if they want to move a 3rd game, based on records after Week 7
    Broncos(2-4) @ Chargers(2-4)
    Buccaneers(5-2) @ Lions(3-3) <—very likely 2nd choice, based on records after Week 7
    49ers(4-3) @ Cardinals(5-2) <—definitely would be moved, based on records after Week 7
    Browns(5-2) @ Jets(0-7) <—no

    It's possible that 3 of these 5 move.

    We'll see how these things pan out as the next few weeks move forward and we get more clarity. However, in this COVID influenced NFL season, anything can change at any time, as the very short notice of a Week 7 SNF change has proven.

    I just hope that we can all stay healthy, get a vaccine ASAP and get back to normal ASAP, and get the 2020 NFL season completed as mostly scheduled.

    Jeff

  11. It will be interesting to see what the NFL does with the week 11 Doubleheader. It is currently Cowboys(2-5)@Vikings(1-5), which is also a stand alone game. I don’t think this game gets moved to the early slot, but I do think Fox and the NFL will want to bring a better game from the early slate to give to most of the country. Here are the options:

    Falcons(2-6)@Saints(4-2)
    Packers(5-1)@Colts(4-2)
    Eagles(2-4-1)@Browns(5-2)
    Lions(3-3)@Panthers(3-5)

    CBS’s regional coverage will likely be anchored by Titans(5-1)@Ravens(5-1). If there is a cross-flex it will be to give Fox another early game if one of the original games gets moved to 4:25. My guess is Packers-Colts (likely) or Eagles-Browns (if Colts lose and both Eagles and Browns win, this Sunday) gets moved to the late window.

    For the record, the primetime games for that week are Cardinals-Seahawks (TNF), Chiefs-Raiders (SNF), and Rams-Bucs(MNF).

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