Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 13

Since it started in its current format as the NFL’s main primetime package in 2006, the defining feature of NBC’s Sunday Night Football has been the use of flexible scheduling to ensure the best matchups and showcase the best teams as the season goes along. Well, that’s the theory, anyway; the reality has not always lived up to the initial hype and has at times seemed downright mystifying. Regardless, I’m here to help you figure out what you can and can’t expect to see on Sunday nights on NBC.

A full explanation of all the factors that go into flexible scheduling decisions can be found on my NFL Flexible Scheduling Primer, but here’s the Cliffs Notes version with all the important points you need to know:

  • The season can be broken down into three different periods (four if you count the first four weeks where flexible scheduling does not apply at all) for flexible scheduling purposes, each with similar yet different rules governing them: the early flex period, from weeks 5 to 10; the main flex period, from weeks 11 to 17; and week 18. In years where Christmas forces either the Sunday afternoon slate or the Sunday night game to Saturday in Week 16, flex scheduling does not apply that week, and the main flex period begins week 10. Note: This year NBC’s press release indicated that the main flex period begins in Week 11 even though Christmas falls on Sunday. I’m assuming this is correct and the result of NBC still being able to have six weeks in the main flex period despite this because of the expansion of the season.
  • In all cases, only games scheduled for Sunday may be moved to Sunday night. Thursday and Monday night games are not affected by Sunday night flexible scheduling (discounting the “flexible scheduling” applied to Saturdays in December in recent years – see below).
  • During the early and main flex periods, one game is “tentatively” scheduled for Sunday night and listed with the Sunday night start time of 8:20 PM ET. This game will usually remain at that start time and air on NBC, but may be flexed out for another game and moved to 1, 4:05, or 4:25 PM ET on Fox or CBS, no less than 12 days in advance of the game.
  • No more than two games can be flexed to Sunday night over the course of the early flex period. If the NFL wishes to flex out a game in the early flex period twelve days in advance, CBS and Fox may elect to protect one game each from being moved to Sunday night. This is generally an emergency valve in situations where the value of the tentative game has plummeted since the schedule was announced, namely in cases of injury to a key star player.
  • CBS and Fox may also each protect games, historically in five out of six weeks of the main flex period, but all of those protections must be submitted after week 5, week 4 in years where the main flex period begins week 10 (so it is always six weeks before the start of the main flex period).
  • No team may appear more than six times across the league’s three primetime packages on NBC, ESPN, and Fox/NFL Network, and only three teams are allowed to appear that often, with everyone else getting five. In addition, no team may appear more than four times on NBC. All teams’ number of appearances heading into this season may be seen here.
  • According to the league’s official page, teams are notified when “they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.” However, they rarely make this known to the fans, and the list of each network’s protections has never officially been made public. It used to leak fairly regularly, but has not leaked since 2014.
  • In all cases, the NFL is the ultimate arbiter of the schedule and consults with CBS, Fox, and NBC before moving any games to prime time. If the NFL does elect to flex out the Sunday night game, the network whose game is flexed in may receive the former tentative game, regardless of which network would “normally” air it under the “CBS=AFC, Fox=NFC” rules, keeping each network’s total number of games constant. At the same time, the NFL may also move games between 1 PM ET and 4:05/4:25 PM ET. However, this feature focuses primarily if not entirely on Sunday night flexible scheduling.
  • In Week 18, the entire schedule is set on only six days notice, ensuring that NBC gets a game with playoff implications, generally a game where the winner is the division champion. More rarely, NBC may also show an intra-division game for a wild card spot, or a game where only one team wins the division with a win but doesn’t win the division with a loss, but such situations are rare and 2018 and 2020, respectively, were the first times it showed such games. If no game is guaranteed to have maximum playoff implications before Sunday night in this fashion, the league has been known not to schedule a Sunday night game at all. To ensure maximum flexibility, no protections or appearance limits apply to Week 17. The NFL also arranges the rest of the schedule such that no team playing at 4:25 PM ET (there are no 4:05 games Week 17) could have their playoff fate decided by the outcome of the 1 PM ET games, which usually means most if not all of the games with playoff implications outside Sunday night are played at 4:25 PM ET, except for two games moved to Saturday to be simulcast on ESPN and ABC.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 20):

  • Selected game: Kansas City @ LA Chargers.

Week 12 (November 27):

  • Selected game: Green Bay @ Philadelphia.

Week 13 (December 4):

  • Selected game: Indianapolis @ Dallas.

Week 14 (December 11):

  • Selected game: Miami @ LA Chargers.

Week 15 (December 18):

  • Selected Saturday games: Indianapolis @ Minnesota (1 PM ET), Baltimore @ Cleveland (4:30 PM ET), Miami @ Buffalo (8 PM ET). Announced around 1 PM ET Monday. Apparently ensuring at least one team is in the playoffs trumps competitiveness or the potential for the game to be hugely important for both teams. This very nearly came back to bite the league, and I would bet that if they start determining Saturday games with 12 days’ notice full-time going forward, teams involved in games earmarked for Saturday won’t appear on MNF two weeks earlier.
  • Selected SNF game: NY Giants @ Washington. In his Football Morning in America column, Peter King noted that the Dolphins really didn’t want to play a Saturday game coming off a short week where they wouldn’t get back from their flexed-in SNF game until Monday morning. I would have thought that would be decisive if the league flexed in a Saturday game, but apparently NBC’s desire for NFC East ratings trumps that. At least I was right that the league would put Pats-Raiders on Fox if they flexed in a Saturday game.

Week 17 (January 1):

  • Tentative game: LA Rams @ LA Chargers
  • Prospects: Effectively flexed out already with the Chargers now maxed out on primetime appearances without it. The Rams’ surprisingly woeful season has sealed its fate.
  • Likely protections: Vikings-Packers (CBS) and Saints-Eagles, Jets-Seahawks, or nothing (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Jets-Seahawks has lost some luster in recent weeks, but it’s a quintessential “play your way into primetime” game, the NFC East tie put the Seahawks back into the playoffs, and being pinned to the late slot of the singleheader means the league is probably more likely to flex it in than Dolphins-Patriots. A lot also may depend on which games are in the running for being flexed next week, but that still favors Jets-Seahawks; the Jets and Dolphins play each other while the Patriots play the Bills and the Seahawks play the Rams, so it seems like Dolphins-Patriots is more likely to affect the Week 18 schedule more than Jets-Seahawks. Steelers-Ravens, Browns-Maroons, and Niners-Raiders are dark horses.

Week 18 (January 8):

  • Tentative game: None (NBC will show game with guaranteed playoff implications).
  • Games to watch: Bucs-Falcons, Patriots-Bills, Ravens-Bengals, Jets-Dolphins, Giants-Eagles, Cowboys-NotIndians.

49 thoughts on “Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 13”

  1. Updated repost:

    Week 15: I still believe if the NFL wasn’t concerned about Pats fans and east coast sportswriters (many of whom are older and used to whine constantly about the late game on ESPN in Week 1 that began at 10:25 PM ET), I supect NFL Network instead of having Colts-Viking at 1:00 PM ET Saturday would have had Pats-Raiders late Sunday night at 11:45, which would have allowed The Las Vegas Bowl to remain in primetime on ABC which I’m sure executives at Disney were lobbying for along with ad buyers for that game that now is Saturday at 2:30 PM ET on ESPN with the New Mexico Bowl, which will get a MUCH lower rating in that time slot replacing it. If I were heading the SEC or Pac-12, I’d be blasting the move and demanding the NFL give the SEC, Pac-12 and the schools involved multiple FREE ads during Sunday Night Football to compensate and made clear the NFL should have told Pats fans to “suck up and stay up” (even to 3:00 AM ET on Monday) so the Las Vegas Bowl would have been in prime time on ABC. I still think the NFL would have gotten a much better rating for an 11:45 PM ET Pats-Raiders game but were afraid of Pats fans and east coast sportswriters being angry with them (plus, the game would have aired over-the-air in the home markets of the teams playing and that could have played havoc, especially in New England with weekend syndicated programming that must air between 6:00 AM Saturday and 5:59 AM Monday and might have forced stations on Monday to pre-empt local early morning news to make sure such programming did air).

    I was right about Giants-Commanders as it’s NFC East, plus I do think NBC wanted Eagles-Giants in Week 14 but the Mara and Tisch families IMO legitmately feared a massive takeover of MetLife Stadium by Eagles fans (70,000+ such) if that had been SNF because Giants season ticket holders are notorious for refusing to go to night games and would have sold their tickets to Eagles fans (MetLife is about a 75-100 minute drive from Philly depending on where in Philly you are).

    Also was surprised Dolphins-Bills was made a Saturday night game (though it means the Dolphins traveling on a short week, if I owned the Dolphins, knowing the schedule, after the 49ers game I’d have arranged to have them practice in SoCal for two weeks and flown directly to Buffalo from SoCal for the Bills game, offsetting the short week, and I was surprised Dolphins-Bills was Saturday Night Football anyway because the rules as I knew them meant the Bills were maxed out of primetime as in the past, ALL Thanksgiving games counted as prime time). NFL guessed right on Falcons-Saints, but I do think the NFL in this case should also have extended their normal deadlines to after the Thurday night game between the Raiders and Rams before deciding.

    One lessone learned from this: Never schedule a Sunday night game where it could be flexed out where it affects another event taking place the night before. I’m sure Las Vegas Bowl officials might now look at legal action against the NFL for forcing the switch.

    Week 16 doesn’t have a flex. This is where the NFL should have had the bulk of the games on Monday, December 26 (day after Christmas that is the actual legal holiday for such) though as noted I suspect the station managers of FOX affiliates objected to that due to their having numerous pre-emptions during the World Cup in November and December and the syndicators of shows that normally air on FOX stations in the daytime probably made clear they could not pre-empt for NFL games on 12/26 since the week of 12/26-30 likely is re-airs of shows that first aired during the World Cup pre-empted by FOX affiliates. Otherwise, it would have set up for ESPN/ABC to have a flex that Monday night. If the Christmas Eve slate had been played the day after Christmas instead, we likely would have seen Texans-Titans (CBS at likely 2:00 PM ET) and Eagles-Cowboys (likely on FOX at 5:30 PM ET) be standalone games on Christmas Eve due to the Titans hosting the Cowboys the following Thursday. That likely also would have meant Raiders-Steelers would have been a 4:30 PM Christmas Day game on NFL Network and the Packers-Dolphins and Broncos-Rams games moved to Monday 12/26. Giants-Vikings likely would have been protected by FOX with Bengals-Patriots the most likely game to be flexed to MNF in that scenario.

    Week 17: We know Rams-Chargers MUST flexed out because the Chargers are maxed out on appearances with their being flexed in to Week 14 agaisnt the Dolphins.

    Jets-Seahawks right now still looks to be the favorite to be the Sunday night game on New Year’s Night. Dolphins-Patriots is the next most likely for New Year’s Night IF the Pats can get their act together.

    Week 18: If Giants-Eagles is for the NFC East, THAT is the Sunday Night finale. If Jets-Dolphins matters for a wild card or the AFC East no matter what happens in the earlier games on Sunday, THAT can be the Sunday night game (though that is also a candidate for Saturday). If Bucs-Falcons is for the NFC South, THAT can be the SNF Finale as well.

  2. If the NBC cared so much about the NFC East why wasn’t Eagles-Giants flexed in. I know that Giants fans hate night games but I don’t think the NFL cares about season ticket holders as for FOX they could have gotten Ravens-Steelers from CBS to be their lead 1pm game.

  3. Spence:

    The story was, Jets-Bills would have had to have been cross-flexed to FOX and CBS I believe protected it. Ravens-Steelers at the time that decision had to be made was not nearly as attractive as it is now.

    Even if it is true FOX asked not to have it flexed, the Mara and Tisch families may have specifically asked the NFL not to flex it to SNF and the Maras go way back with the NFL. They are probably the one family (aside from the Rooneys) they would do that for, especially if they expressed a genuine fear Giants season ticket holders would have sold their tickets to Eagles fans and it was 90% Eagles fans at Met Life because of the relative short drive from Philly to The Meadowlands (a simple bus ride for the Eagles up the New Jersey Turnpike).

  4. That definitely makes sense that they would do that for the Mara’s but I don’t think Fox would be down that bad even if Pittsburgh lost to Atlanta and they were 4-8 they still have a big fanbase also they have the Cowboys in that window which could go to the Southern part of the country. And CBS next week in the 1pm window has Chiefs-Texans likely as its “Marquee Game” going to most of the country if not it’s Lions-Jets. So The Mara’s are probably why it didn’t get Flexed. But Even if Pittsburgh lost Fox would have had a good enough 1pm window with Ravens-Steelers the Cowboys and Vikings-Lions

  5. Week 16 is interesting. Jets-Seahawks is the obvious SNF flex, but the rest of the games are pretty lackluster. The MNF game, Bills-Bengals, is probably the best game of the week, with the TNF game, Cowboys-Titans, right behind. It will be interesting to see what they do with the CBS DH game, as it is currently Vikings-Packers. I am sure they hope that Green Bay continues to win games, in order to make the game somewhat relevant. It probably stays put anyway, as, like I said, the Sunday NFL slate is objectively bad, outside of maybe Dolphins-Patriots. Steelers-Ravens, 49ers-Raiders, Browns-Commanders, and Panthers-Buccaneers could all improve in time to make the slate better, but I wouldn’t count on it.

  6. Hello NFL SNF Flex Scheduling lovers,

    Here’s my take on things after Week 13.

    Main Flex period:

    Week 16 – scheduled game is: T.B.(6-6) @ Ariz.(4-8) <— can't be flexed, as it's set in stone due to being on Christmas, but yuck!

    Week 17 – scheduled game is: L.A.R.(3-9) @ L.AC.(6-6) <— this will be flexed out

    My choices are few:

    #1 – NYJ(7-5) @ Sea(7-5) <—I believe this has an excellent chance to be the Week 17 SNF game
    #2 – Mia(8-4) @ NE(6-6)

    Week 18 – no scheduled SNF game and 2 games moving to Saturday

    N.E.(6-6) @ Buff.(9-3) <—can't move to Saturday
    N.Y.J.(7-5) @ Mia.(8-4) <—might be affected by Bills not being able to play on Saturday and could preclude them from doing so as well. If not precluded from moving to Saturday, it has a good chance or possibly SNF.
    Balt.(8-4) @ Cin.(8-4) <—can't move to Saturday, but SNF could be a possibility…….though there could be AFC teams with the same record too going to Week 18 and the NFL tries to keep those games at the same time
    Clev.(5-7) @ Pitt.(5-7) <—not looking like a move to Saturday would be in the cards anyway
    Hou.(1-10-1) @ Ind.(4-8-1) <—not a good Saturday game candidate
    Tenn.(7-5) @ Jack.(4-8) <—not a good Saturday game candidate, unless Jack wins their 1st matchup with the Titans this coming week
    L.A.C.(6-6) @ Den.(3-9) <—not a good Saturday game candidate
    K.C.(9-3) @ L.V.(5-7) <—not a good Saturday game candidate
    N.Y.G.(7-4-1) @ Phil.(10-1-1) <—looking good to be a Saturday game and no longer a good choice for SNF
    Dal.(9-3) @ Wash.(7-5-1) <—starting to gain on potentially moving to Saturday and quickly! or SNF ?
    Minn.(10-2) @ Chi.(3-10) <—not a good Saturday game candidate
    Det.(5-7) @ G.B.(5-8) <—not a good Saturday game candidate
    T.B.(6-6) @ Atl.(5-8) <—could be a dark horse for SNF, as it could become a win and in, lose and out game……..reminds me of Rams/Seahawks on SNF years ago as a clown show win and in and lose and out game…..last night's last second win by the Bucs hurt this
    Car.(4-8) @ N.O.(4-9) <—not a good Saturday game candidate
    Ariz.(4-8) @ S.F.(8-4) <—not a good Saturday game candidate
    L.A.R.(3-9) @ Sea.(7-5) <—not looking good to move to Saturday

    Remember, due to Buffalo and Cincinnati playing on MNF in Week 17, they will not be able to play on Saturday in Week 18 and that also leads to the potential of no matchup from the AFC East and AFC North moving to Saturday. But we'll see.

    After Week 14, I'll start my rankings for the 2 Sat games and the SNF game.

  7. Hi, John Lilly. You’re right that currently Vikings vs. Packers game at Lambeau week 17 is on cbs 3:25, but it’s no promises it’ll stay on CBS 3:25 pm game week 17. Assuming GB is eliminated in the playoffs before week 17, it could be flexed out of 3:25 pm and switch it to noon with a crossflex to Fox. But next season, I could see Vikings vs. Packers game at Lambeau field on CBS 3:25 pm as a makeup from this season or a SNF matchup. But we can be flexible about the fate of Vikings vs packers game Lambeau on CBS 3:25 pm of this season.

  9. I think Dolphins vs Patriots joins Vikings vs Packers at 4:25 and both games go to about half of the country.

  10. One other thing that could have been done that could have kept the Las Vegas Bowl where it was:

    Allowed NBC to flex Giants-Commanders as it was done to SNF, but with Pats-Raiders ALSO being played at the same time, airing in New England and Las Vegas on NBC and everywhere else on Sunday Ticket (in that scenario, you’d probably have had Jac Collinsworth and Jason Garrett, who called Notre Dame games this season calling NE-LV while NYG-WSH is seen everywhere else). The NFL could have found a way to compensate FOX for not getting a game back in return (maybe in the 2023 postseason, FOX gets a 6:00 PM ET Monday Wild Card playoff game while ESPN/ABC’s Monday Night playoff game is moved back to 9:30 PM ET).

  14. Jeff:

    What would have been so wrong for one week to have two Sunday night games split between NBC and Sunday Ticket? That would have solved the issue with the Las Vegas Bowl.

    Luckilly for Disney, the New Mexico Bowl matchup is Southern Methodist against BYU (as opposed to Florida-Oregon State in the Las Vegas Bowl). This is BYU’s last game in football as an independent (they move to the Big 12 in 2023) and they have the largest following of any school not named Notre Dame and likely gets the same audience the Las Vegas Bowl would have solely because of that.

  15. Jeff:

    What you wrote on Week 18 is why the NFL should either do that week or a new Week 19 (second bye week tied to Thursday games) where all games are in one conference at 3:00 and the other at 8:15 and divided up between ALL of the broadcast partners. This is how it’s done in most leagues worldwide on the last day.

  16. Hi, Jeff. I have a question for you? Even though I recently made a prediction on a few SNF football games for the Packers next season and how many games on CBS the packers will have next season, what are your prediction for a few SNF football games and a few games on CBS for the Packers next season?

  17. Weeks 14-16 have been flexed or cant be flexed
    Week 17: Technically, this game can stay in its SNF slot because you can be flexed into a 7th primetime game. It probably won’t because the rams are shit and the chargers are mediocre though.
    New York-Seattle looks to be the frontrunner for week 17 SNF and if probably will be unless the jets collapse. Dolphins-Pats is 2nd place and could be SNF that week if CBS doesen’t protect it. Browns-Commies seems to be in 3rd place for a chance to be in SNF after the Saints lost on MNF.
    Week 18: My Saturday and Sunday night picks are:
    4:30 PM ET: Jets-Dolphins
    8:15 PM ET: Boys-Commies/Giants-Eagles
    Game 272: Ravens-Bengals

  18. Isaiah:

    You can only be flexed into a 7th prime time game in Week 18. Chargers are otherwise maxed out and MUST be flexed out in Week 17. Even without that, Thursday night none-withstanding, Rams have no realistic playoff hope and this game should be flexed out anyway.

  19. Update: Ravens-Bengals will only be Game 272 if Bucs-Falcons isn’t for the NFC south. I’m pretty sure that they want a game that will be win or go home without relying on other games.

  20. Hi Brian,

    The Packers might only be scheduled for 2 SNF games next season because of what has happened this season. A game against Minnesota would make sense. And at home (Lambeau) vs. the Chiefs makes sense as well.

    That’s my take.

  21. Hi, Jeff. I respect your prediction of next season for the Packers schedule. What is your prediction for the packers game on cbs with Jim Nantz and Tony Romo announcing next seaso? I predict either one or 2 with possibly Packers vs. Vikings at Lambeau or Packers vs. chiefs or both.

  23. We’ll see is right because CBS sports announcers Jim Nantz and
    Tony Romo love announcing 1 or 2 Packers games normally at Lambeau Field with Aaron
    Rodgers playing under center and that makes those popular. It seems that packers would normally get 2 games on CBS normally at Lambeau with 1 AFC and 1 NFC.

  24. Isaiah:

    I’m not sure the NFL would have BOTH New York teams on Saturday. I suspect Giants-Eagles would be the more likely of the two since that is less likely to have any impact on Sunday.

  25. Walt:

    Giants could have too much of an impact on Commanders and Seahawks and need to play at the same time as those teams do.

  26. Isaiah:

    Remember that based on last year’s precedent, the Bills and Bengals can’t play on Saturday due to playing on MNF in Week 17.

  27. Week 17: Panthers-Bucs will be SNF if the Bucs lose and the Panthers win week 15. This would decide who leads the NFC south coming week 18.
    Jets-Seahawks will be SNF if the above scenario doesn’t happen and both teams are above 500 come week 17
    Dolphins-Pats will be SNF if the above scenarios don’t happen and both teams are above 500 come week 17
    Week 18: My Saturday and Sunday picks are:
    4:30 PM ET: Titans-Jaguars
    8:15 PM ET: Boys-Commies
    Sun 8:20 PM ET: Ravens-Bengals

  28. Updated repost (note for Jeff, my views on Week 18 have changed considerably since the last post):

    Week 15: I was right about Giants-Commanders as it’s NFC East.

    Week 16 doesn’t have a flex. This is where the NFL should have had the bulk of the games on Monday, December 26 (day after Christmas that is the actual legal holiday for such) though as noted I suspect the station managers of FOX affiliates objected to that due to their having numerous pre-emptions during the World Cup in November and December and the syndicators of shows that normally air on FOX stations in the daytime probably made clear they could not pre-empt for NFL games on 12/26 since the week of 12/26-30 likely is re-airs of shows that first aired during the World Cup pre-empted by FOX affiliates. Otherwise, it would have set up for ESPN/ABC to have a flex that Monday night. If the Christmas Eve slate had been played the day after Christmas instead, we likely would have seen Texans-Titans (CBS at likely 2:00 PM ET) and Eagles-Cowboys (likely on FOX at 5:30 PM ET) be standalone games on Christmas Eve due to the Titans hosting the Cowboys the following Thursday. That likely also would have meant Raiders-Steelers would have been a 4:30 PM Christmas Day game on NFL Network and the Packers-Dolphins and Broncos-Rams games moved to Monday 12/26. Giants-Vikings likely would have been protected by FOX with Bengals-Patriots the most likely game to be flexed to MNF in that scenario.

    Week 17: We know Rams-Chargers MUST flexed out because the Chargers are maxed out on appearances with their being flexed in to Week 14 agaisnt the Dolphins.

    Jets-Seahawks right now still looks to be the favorite to be the Sunday night game on New Year’s Night. Dolphins-Patriots is the next most likely for New Year’s Night IF the Pats can get their act together. Vikings-Packers has become a longshot possibility if the Vikings lose again next week as they suddenly could be in danger of losing the #2 seed to the 49ers. Also a longshot is Panthers-Bucs, which would likely be Tom Brady’s final regular season home game in Tampa. The Panthers beating the Seahawks on Sunday could make that trainwreck of a game New Year’s Night SNF.

    Week 18: With the Eagles destroying the Giants Sunday, the Lions beating the Vikings, the Jaguars going into Tennessee and beating the Titans AND the BUCS getting destroyed by the 49ers, there could be some VERY interesting scenarios for Week 18, especially if the Packers can run the table before then.

    If the Lions are alive for the last wild card going into the final week of the season, their game in Lambeau against the Packers is likely the 4:30 PM ET Saturday game as I think the Pack, even if THEY have nothing to play for would be up for this game with the chance to play spoiler and extract revenge for earlier this season. Giants-Eagles is less likely because there is a good chance the game means nothing to the Eagles, who may have the #1 seed wrapped up, especially if they beat the Cowboys Christmas Eve.

    Ravens-Bengals looks like the other Saturday game right now as that could be a game that may or may not matter to the Ravens but could matter win or lose to the Bengals as it could be in play for the #2 seed in the AFC.

    As for Sunday Night Football, if the Jags beat the Cowboys next Sunday and then beat the Jets a week from Thursday, they may be in position to actually win the AFC South as they have the Texans in Week 17. The Jags just beat the Titans in Nashville on Sunday, and that rematch could be Game 272. That would be remarkable since the Jags were left for dead earlier this year and have been awful before this season.

    With the Bucs losing Sunday as they did, it opens up Falcons-Bucaneers for the final Sunday night game in Atlanta as that also could be a winner-take-all for the NFC South.

    NBC may have its choice of trainwreck finales for SNF (Titans-Jaguars or Bucs-Falcons).

  29. Walt:

    Based on last year’s precedent, that’s very likely to be adhered to this season, the Ravens/Bengals won’t be allowed to be on Saturday in Week 18 due to Cincy playing the Bills on Monday Night Football in Week 17.

  31. Week 17 is a disastrous slate.
    Right now, Jets-Seahawks still looks to be the most likely to move to SNF, especially considering the easy logistics of it, as Rams-Chargers will be plugged into the FOX late singleheader. Both teams are trending downward, however, and I wouldn’t be surprised if both teams lost again next week and it’s 7-7 vs. 7-7 by decision time, which doesn’t feel very appealing… 49ers-Raiders was looking good until the raiders let baker stomp all over them, essentially ending their season.
    I’m still curious to see what happens to the CBS late doubleheader game, it’s very likely that they keep Vikings-Packers because that rivalry will draw ratings, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they put in the Dolphins-Patriots game in the late window. If Dolphins-Patriots is not protected, that could go to SNF and Rams-Chargers will go to 4:25pm on CBS, sharing the marquee game timeslot.
    One thing to look out for is Panthers-Bucs. If the panthers win next week, don’t be shocked to see this game move to SNF as it could be for the division, especially if the Bucs lose. Though it would be unappealing record-wise, it’s a very important game and Brady will always draw ratings. If this game goes to SNF, Rams-Chargers will have to go to 4:25pm on CBS as FOX already has two late games in their singleheader and CBS must crossflex a game to FOX in the early window. For now, I’m predicting Jets-Seahawks but any of the other two are a possibility.

    Week 18:
    Ravens-Bengals looks extremely likely to be Game 272. If the ravens are a game behind the bengals or tied recordwise, that game will undoubtedly go to SNF. However, if the ravens are a game up, they will have the division clinched due to division record, as they only need to win one more division game (vs. browns or steelers) to clinch the tiebreaker over the Bengals if they are to split.

    If the ravens already have the division clinched and the titans are only a game up on the jags, which could realistically happen as the titans might be 8-8 and the jags might be 7-9 if they take care of business against the cowboys or jets (assuming both beat the texans), this game will go to SNF. If bengals-ravens is for the division, expect this one to be the Saturday night game.

    The Saturday 4:30pm game is a wild card, though. If the chiefs and bills are tied in the standings at #1 and #2 seeds, it could be Chiefs-Raiders, where the Chiefs play for the #1 seed but don’t clinch unless the bills lose (This happened last year where the chiefs beat the broncos on Saturday to move to 12-5, but the titans won the following day to clinch the #1 seed). Or vice versa, bills vs. pats if they’re a game behind the chiefs.
    We could also see a game like chargers-broncos, giants-eagles, lions-packers, or rams-seahawks if the chargers, giants, lions, or seahawks are still alive but on the outside looking in, in a scenario where they need to win and get help from other teams to clinch the playoffs.

    Very crushing that we only have 4 weeks left of the regular season but the homestretch is always the best! Looking forward to an exciting last few weeks of football.

  32. I noticed two mistakes with my comment – first of all, bills vs pats is ineligible to move to Saturday. Also, I forgot to mention Jets vs. Dolphins. This is either going to be SNF if it’s for a wild card spot or just on Sunday. I wouldn’t expect it to move to Saturday because it involves two teams in playoff positioning that could have major implications on teams’ playoff chances, so it likely will be played in the late window on Sunday, 1/8.

  33. “Walt’s Lover:”

    I made the same mistake with Ravens-Bengals, however, since the Bengals are home in BOTH Weeks 17 and 18, the NFL might let the Bengals still play Saturday night on four days rest since they won’t be traveling and the Ravens will be. The fact there are rumors the NFL may actually wait until after Bills-Bengals Monday 1/2 to determine everything for Week 18 suggests the NFL MIGHT just be considering Ravens-Bengals anyway (which is also why ESPN should have actually gotten a Friday night game on 12/30 in lieu of a game Monday 1/2 so the Sugar Bowl could have stayed after being after the Rose Bowl as it has been in recent years).

    Assuming the Bengals are ineligible for Saturday week 18, after using ESPN’s playoff machine to make my own scenarios (https://tinyurl.com/3pcp3cry) then Jets-Dolphins, as long as one or both is still in playoff contention will likely be the late game on Saturday 1/7. Everything else is correct.

  35. Isaiah:

    I’m sure the NFC East is preferred for the Saturday or Sunday night slots, but the problems are: Giants-Eagles could be meaningless to the Eagles and they may rest everyone while Cowboys-Commanders could be meaningless to the Cowboys because they are locked into the fifth seed (and this is something the NFL needs to change by going to NBA-style seeding where only record matters except where a division winner and wild card have the same record AND the Wild Card did not beat the division winner during the regular season, as the Cowboys would actually be the third seed in that format). That’s why I think it could be this:

    4:30 PM ET Sat. 1/7: Lions-Packers. If the Lions are alive, it may not matter if the Pack isn’t. This would be a revenge game for the Pack.

    8:15 PM ET Sat. 1/7: Jets-Dolphins (if the Bengals can’t be put on Saturday) or Ravens-Bengals (if the Bengals can). Given the rumors the Week 18 schedule may not be set until after Bills-Bengals Monday 1/2, it’s possible the NFL waits and puts the Bengals on if it matters to them and it doesn’t affect anyone else win or lose (and the Bengals are home both weeks so no travel at all for the Bengals). Otherwise, as long as it matters for at least one of them, Jets-Dolphins, which at one time was the biggest rivalry in the AFC is likely for that spot.

    8:20 PM ET Sun. 1/8: It’s looking more and more like Buccaneers-Falcons will be the final game of the regular season, though if the Jags run the table before this game AND the Titans lose at least one more game, Titans-Jags, which would be for the AFC South becomes the final game.

  36. Walt Gekko: I think the Saturday and Sunday night games will be:
    If Bucs-Falcons isn’t for the NFC South
    4:30 ET: Titans-Jags
    8:15 PM ET: Jets-Dolphins
    8:20 PM ET: Ravens-Bengals
    If Bucs-Falcons is for the NFC South
    4:15 PM ET: Titans-Jags
    8:15 PM ET: Ravens-Bengals
    8:20 PM ET: Bucs-Falcons

  37. Isaiah:

    I believe you have to have one AFC and one NFC game on Saturday. That is why I think it will be the way I said it.

  40. Jeff: makes sense because if there’s a situation where team A and B play and the winner needs team C to lose, that would be good for Saturday

  41. Those scenarios you said are intriguing, Isaiah. Assuming the Vikings vs. Packers game at Lambeau week 17 stays on CBS 3:25 pm New Year’s Day, I’ll predict it’ll be Jim Nantz and Tony Romo announcing that matchup because the Packers with Aaron Rodgers are very popular playing football games with one or 2 games on CBS with top CBS announcers Jim Nantz and Tony Romo announcing 1 or 2 (normally Lambeau Field), and whenever the Vikings play football with those two top CBS announcers announcing a Vikings game, Vikings don’t play great football with those two top CBS sports announcers announcing a MN Vikings game.

  44. If December 25 was on Wednesday this year, the NFL would have flexed the week 15 game between the Buccaneers vs Cardinals.

  45. Speaking of Christmas:

    We already know next year there will be three games again on Christmas Day (as said before, I believe Monday 12/26 would have been the full lineup instead of Saturday 12/24 but even though FOX likely gets Eagles-Cowboys as a standalone game on Christmas Eve in that scenario (with Texans-Titans on CBS because the Titans host the Cowboys Thursday 12/29), stations managers of FOX affiliates likely objected to that due to a lot of pre-emptions during the World Cup with 12/26-30 likely being repeats of daytime shows that originally aired during the World Cup pre-empted by FOX affiliates). What will be interesting is what happens after that. Would the NFL have games in 2024 on Christmas Day when that is a Wednesday? This is where I think you could see a new Week 19 added with a second bye week tied to mid-week games just so we see that, plus perhaps a Wednesday-after-Thanksgiving game on NBC tied to the tree lighting in Rockefeller Plaza that could be alternately hosted by the Jets and Giants at Met Life.

  46. And if we do see a new Week 19, that could be done where Week 18 is done as it is now (except for an additional Monday night game) and the new Week 19 being what should be done anyway: All games in one conference at 3:00 PM ET and the other at 8:15 PM ET (the 8:15 start specifically to allow CBS to air “60 Minutes” at 7:00 and keep that audience, the oldest of all prime time shows on television happy). NBC would have first choice for each time slot, with CBS and FOX picking 2-3 depending on which conference’s games are in each time slot (also in reverse picking 7-8 for games that would air on CBSSN and DECADES (CBS’s DT-2 Channel) OR in some cases the CW affiliate in addition to CBSSN and FS1 and MOVIES or BUZZR (FOX’s DT-2/DT-4 Channels). ABC would get fourth choice, ESPN would get fifth choice (such games also airing on secondary channels also owned by ABC affiliates or where an alternate ABC station local newscast normally airs). Amazon/NFL Network would get sixth choice with such airing on both outlets AND most likely COZI-TV (NBC’s DT-2 channel or an alternate station owned by those who own the NBC affiliate). This is how its done worldwide and its time the NFL did that.

  47. Hello NFL SNF Flex Scheduling lovers,

    Here’s my take on things after Week 14.

    Main Flex period:

    Week 16 – scheduled game is: T.B.(6-7) @ Ariz.(4-9) <— can't be flexed, as it's set in stone due to being on Christmas, but yuck!

    Week 17 – scheduled game is: L.A.R.(4-9) @ L.AC.(7-6) <— this will be flexed out

    My choices are few:

    #1 – Mia(8-5) @ NE(7-6)
    #2 – NYJ(7-6) @ Sea(7-6)

    My choices between these 2 flipped after Week 14's games. Because Dolphins/Patriots got closer in record and both stand a good chance to win this week. Also, because Jets/Seahawks both lost last week.

    Week 18 – no scheduled SNF game and 2 games moving to Saturday

    N.E.(7-6) @ Buff.(10-3) <—can't move to Saturday and likely wouldn't anyway because of the Pats needing to play at the same time as other teams in the playoff race. My #3 choice for SNF at the moment
    N.Y.J.(7-6) @ Mia.(8-5) <—my #2 choice for SNF at the moment….it also has a chance to be a win and in & lose and out game
    Balt.(9-4) @ Cin.(9-4) <—can't move to Saturday, but it's my current #1 for SNF. It's possible that this game determines who's the 3 seed and who's the 5 seed and no other seeding possible. If that ends up being the case, then this game is a lock to be game 272 on SNF.
    Clev.(5-8) @ Pitt.(5-8) <—not looking like a move to Saturday would be in the cards anyway
    Hou.(1-11-1) @ Ind.(4-8-1) <—not a good Saturday game candidate
    Tenn.(7-6) @ Jack.(5-8) <—this might matter for a Saturday game after the Jaguars beat up the Titans this past Sunday
    L.A.C.(7-6) @ Den.(3-10) <—not a good Saturday game candidate
    K.C.(10-3) @ L.V.(5-8) <—not a good Saturday game candidate
    N.Y.G.(7-5-1) @ Phil.(12-1) <—looking good to be a Saturday game, but if the Giants have to play at the same time as others because of playoff seedings….my current #5 for SNF
    Dal.(10-3) @ Wash.(7-5-1) <—starting to gain on potentially moving to Saturday and quickly!….unless the Commanders need to play at the same time as others fighting for the last playoff spots….my current #4 for SNF
    Minn.(10-3) @ Chi.(3-10) <—not a good Saturday game candidate
    Det.(6-7) @ G.B.(5-8) <—not a good Saturday game candidate
    T.B.(6-7) @ Atl.(5-8) <—could be a dark horse for SNF, as it could become a win and in, lose and out game……..reminds me of Rams/Seahawks on SNF years ago as a clown show win and in and lose and out game…..though Panthers could muck this up, as they could be the one that is closest to the Bucs going into Week 18……possible Saturday game
    Car.(5-8) @ N.O.(4-9) <—not a good Saturday game candidate……if the Panthers keep winning, then…who knows about landing on Saturday afterall…..maybe 2 NFC South games on Saturday
    Ariz.(4-9) @ S.F.(9-4) <—not a good Saturday game candidate
    L.A.R.(4-9) @ Sea.(7-6) <—not looking good to move to Saturday

    Remember, due to Buffalo and Cincinnati playing on MNF in Week 17, they will not be able to play on Saturday in Week 18.

    As I said last season, the NFL did itself no favors by adding the 2 Saturday games to the Week 18 schedule.

  48. Good scenarios, Jeff. Assuming Packers keep winning and if GB and Detroit goes to 8-8 depending on other teams status, I could see Packers vs. Lions game at Lambeau week 18 get flexed to SNF football in order to decide the wild card playoff implications.

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