NFL Flexible Scheduling Watch: Week 16

Note: This post does not reflect the result of the Christmas day games.

Here’s something I could have put in this section last week but didn’t: last week Mike Tirico appeared on Jimmy Traina’s podcast and suggested the league adopt a Premier League-style scheduling model for the last month or so of the season, where games are complete free agents only assigned to windows and networks when the time comes to make flex decisions on each one. Tirico thinks “it would really benefit everybody to just kind of put placeholders in”, but realistically I don’t think the networks would stand for that depending on where they are in the pecking order for choosing games. (I’d think what he really meant was that it would benefit his employer specifically, except that of the three featured windows on Sunday and Monday last week, NBC was probably most satisfied with what they got.) The doubleheader network would still get priority for their late afternoon game, but all the other half-decent games would be siphoned away to other networks. Networks care about their 1 PM ET windows too, and at the very least the singleheader network needs a good game of some kind; this approach would basically amount to abolishing protections, and maybe even the division rivalry rule, in the last month of the season.

The league pretended this was how it worked in the first year of flex scheduling in 2006, listing all Sunday games at 1 PM, 4:05 PM, or 4:25 PM ET based solely on what time zone the game was being played in and (for West Coast games) whether the network it would be on under the old rigid road-team-based rules had the singleheader or doubleheader, implying the best of the unprotected games would go to NBC. In reality, NBC always had a tentative game penciled in, and in 2007 and subsequent years this tentative game was marked in the schedule from the start. All the networks want some idea of what games they’re going to get, if only to promote them for advertisers.

I don’t think the situation we had last week would have gone much better if this “free agent” system was in place but the Saturday games were still fixed, Fox was still guaranteed Eagles-Swing States, and they could still protect Vikings-Seahawks. If Broncos-Chargers still got flexed to TNF in mid-November, the three best games available two weeks out would have actually been the three games that were already in the featured windows. Now, you could argue that’s a sign of the league’s hubris in taking the Netflix deal and adding two more featured windows to the four it already had, but it still points to how the protection and division-rivalry rules are the real obstacles here to creating a decent, balanced schedule, and how if the league can’t solve that problem, the only solution is to take more care in constructing the schedule in May.

How NFL flexible scheduling works: (see also the NFL’s own page on flex schedule procedures)

• Up to two games in Weeks 5-10 (the “early flex” period), and any number of games from Week 11 onward, may be flexed into Sunday Night Football. Any number of games from Week 12 onward may be flexed into Monday Night Football, and up to two games from Week 13 onward may be flexed into Thursday Night Football. In addition, in select weeks in December a number of games may be listed as “TBD”, with two or three of those games being assigned to be played on Saturday. Note that I only cover early flexes if a star player on one of the teams is injured.
• Only games scheduled for Sunday afternoon, or set aside for a potential move to Saturday, may be flexed into one of the flex-eligible windows – not existing primetime games or games in other standalone windows. The game currently listed in the flex-eligible window will take the flexed-in game’s space on the Sunday afternoon slate, generally on the network that the flexed-in game was originally scheduled for. The league may also move Sunday afternoon games between 1 PM ET and 4:05 or 4:25 PM ET.
• Thursday Night Football flex moves must be announced 28 days in advance. Sunday and Monday Night Football moves must be announced 12 days in advance, except for Sunday night games in Week 14 onward, which can be announced at any point up until 6 days in advance.
• CBS and Fox have the right to protect one game each per week, among the games scheduled for their networks, from being flexed into primetime windows. During the early flex period, they may protect games at any point once the league tells them they’re thinking of pulling the flex. It’s not known when they must protect games in the main flex period, only that it’s “significantly closer to each game date” relative to the old deadline of Week 5. My assumption is that protections are due five weeks in advance, in accordance with the 28-day deadline for TNF flexes. Protections have never been officially publicized, and have not leaked en masse since 2014, so can only be speculated on.
• Supposedly, CBS and Fox are also guaranteed one half of each division rivalry. Notably, last year some Week 18 games (see below) had their other halves scheduled for the other conference’s network, though none were scheduled for primetime.
• No team may appear more than seven times in primetime windows – six scheduled before the season plus one flexed in. This appears to consider only the actual time the game is played, that is, Amazon’s Black Friday game does not count even though the rest of their TNF slate does, and NBC’s Saturday afternoon game Week 16 doesn’t count either. This post contains a list of all teams’ primetime appearances entering the season.
• Teams may play no more than two Thursday games following Sunday games, and (apparently) no more than one of them can be on the road.
• In Week 18 the entire schedule, consisting entirely of games between divisional opponents, is set on six days’ notice, usually during the previous week’s Sunday night game. One game will be scheduled for Sunday night, usually a game that decides who wins the division, a game where the winner is guaranteed to make the playoffs while the loser is out, or a game where one team makes the playoffs with a win but falls behind the winner of another game, and thus loses the division and/or misses the playoffs, with a loss. Two more games with playoff implications are scheduled for Saturday on ABC and ESPN, with the remaining games doled out to CBS and Fox on Sunday afternoon, with the league generally trying to maximize what each team has to play for. Protections and appearance limits do not apply to Week 18.
• Click here to learn how to read the charts.

Week 18: It’s pretty much down to Vikings-Lions or Seahawks-Rams for the Sunday night game; I’m not sure any other game can sneak in even if neither one is a division title game, because that won’t be known for certain until Monday night. On Saturday, the only games not involving teams playing on Monday night that I don’t think have a shot are the NFC South games; there’s technically a scenario where Panthers-Falcons could be chosen if the Bucs are still alive for the wild card, but I don’t think it actually would be. Note that most of the Saturday games are listed as games that may move; the NFL may yet decide to move games that I wouldn’t, so even if exactly two games have their scenarios play out they’re not necessarily the ones that’ll move, especially if the alternative is an overloaded late window. Scenarios obviated by the Chiefs-Steelers result (not many) are strikethrough’d.

Potential Sunday night games

• Vikings-Lions to SNF if: The Vikings win OR the Lions lose. If the teams were to finish tied after splitting the season series the Lions would hold the common games tiebreaker. NBC would probably prefer this game to Seahawks-Rams given the choice, and the Lions playing on Monday night probably precludes this game from moving to Saturday, but it also means the chance of this being a division title game could end up hinging on the Monday night game. If Seahawks-Rams is for the NFC West and this game needs a Lions loss to be for the division, whichever game doesn’t end up on Sunday night will probably end up on Fox, not ESPN. My hunch is that the league would still wait for the Monday night game and give this game to NBC if the Lions lose, both because it’s the more attractive game and to minimize the number of games in the late afternoon window, but who knows.
• Seahawks-Rams to SNF if: The Rams lose AND the scenario above doesn’t happen. If the Rams lose to the Cardinals the Seahawks would hold the division record tiebreaker if they finish tied, but if they win the tie would be broken by strength of victory, and while the Seahawks might have had a shot of locking that up with a win over the Vikings, beating the Bears instead would not be enough, and it could be the Rams that lock up strength of victory by the end of the week.
• I’m not sure what the league would do if neither of these scenarios happen, given that we won’t know for sure if that’s the case until after the Monday night game. I could see the league taking a flyer on Vikings-Lions anyway on grounds that if it’s not a division title game, it’s probably meaningless for both teams, as a Lions win on Monday night would lock down the #1 seed, though if the Packers win the Vikings would still be defending the 5 seed.

Potential Saturday games

These scenarios are listed in very rough order of what I think the league’s preference is.

• Seahawks-Rams will go to Saturday if: The Rams lose AND the Vikings win; OR the Seahawks win AND the Rams don’t clinch the strength of victory tiebreaker. In one scenario, both division title games are known to be happening entering the Sunday night game; in the other, putting the game on Saturday ensures that it could turn out to be a division title game depending on how the strength of victory tiebreaker turns out. Note that if the Rams haven’t technically clinched strength of victory, but the Seahawks’ chances of stealing it are infinitesimal, the league might not bother if there are enough other games suitable for a Saturday move. For the record, the Seahawks are rooting for wins for the Broncos, Dolphins, and Falcons, while the Rams are rooting for the Niners, Raiders, Vikings, Saints, and Bills.
• Giants-Eagles may go to Saturday if: The Eagles win AND the Vikings win. The Eagles can’t catch the Lions on conference record, but they’d be even with the Vikings. If the Vikings beat the Packers, any tie between the Eagles and Vikings for the 1 seed would be decided by strength of victory, where the Eagles currently have the edge. Note that the Packers represent one of the teams’ common games, so a Packers win would give the Eagles the tiebreaker for certain, but the league probably can’t wait to see if the Vikings have a chance to win the division which would be the prerequisite for this to matter.
• Bills-Patriots may go to Saturday if: The Bills lose AND the Steelers or Ravens win. The Bills have two-game gaps to both the 1 and the 3, so if they contest the Chiefs for the 1 that’s the only direction their seed can move. The AFC North actually can’t be decided this week; if the teams go in different directions this week but go the opposite way the next, the team that wins next week would hold the division record tiebreaker. The Ravens beat the Bills and the Steelers would hold the conference games tiebreaker.
• Natives-Cowboys may go to Saturday if: The Falcons beat Washington AND the Bucs win AND (the Packers win OR Bears-Packers is the early game). If Washington loses out and the Falcons and Bucs win out, the Falcons win the division but the Bucs steal the last playoff spot with the conference games tiebreaker. But if the Packers lose, leaving the defense of the 6 seed the only thing they have to play for, a Washington loss would lock in their seed. Technically Panthers-Falcons would also be an option in this scenario, but you can’t move both games to Saturday in case Falcons and Washington wins leave the Bucs with nothing to play for, and let’s be real, we all know which game ESPN would rather have.
• Bengals-Steelers may go to Saturday if: The Bengals win AND (the Ravens lose AND if the Steelers win, the Chargers also win, OR the Ravens win AND the Bills lose AND the Steelers lose AND the Chargers lose). Regardless of what the Colts and Dolphins do, the Bengals would be in back of the pecking order for a playoff spot with a win. In the first scenario here, the Ravens still have to defend the 5 seed even if the Steelers clinch the division; if both teams lose, a Steelers loss to the Bengals clinches the division for the Ravens, but they’d now have a head-to-head loss to the Texans and would be fighting to avoid a rubber match with the Steelers in the wild card round. In the second scenario, the Ravens are fighting the Bills for the #2 seed, but if the Steelers win out they’d be locked into the 5 seed.
• Chiefs-Broncos may go to Saturday if: The Broncos win AND (the Chiefs win OR the Bills lose) AND the Chargers, Colts, or Dolphins win AND the Ravens or Steelers lose; OR the Chargers lose AND the Colts or Dolphins win AND Bengals-Steelers is the early game. If the Chargers win, this creates a three-way pileup for the three wild card spots, with the AFC North loser holding a head-to-head sweep and the Chargers holding a sweep of the Broncos; if the AFC North teams both win, a Broncos loss would leave the Chargers with nothing to play for as they’d have head-to-head losses to both the Ravens and Steelers. If the Chargers lose, they still have to defend their wild card spot while the Broncos try to jump into the 5. Finally, if the Broncos and Chargers both lose then they both have to defend their wild card spots, but the Bengals can only pass the Broncos so they have to play first; luckily any scenario where Bengals-Steelers is an option and the Chargers have lost is also one where the Chiefs have locked up the 1 seed.
• Bears-Packers may go to Saturday if: The Packers lose AND the Falcons beat Washington AND the Bucs win. If the Packers win, I don’t think the game is moving to Saturday as if the Lions clinch the division on Monday night, a Packers loss locks the Vikings into the 5 seed. Instead, I’m going with the scenario where they have to defend the 6 seed but Washington still has to win to make the playoffs at all.
• In addition to the scenario above, Seahawks-Rams may go to Saturday if: The Rams win AND the Seahawks lose AND the Falcons and Bucs win. In this scenario the Rams would have clinched the division, but if they lose the NFC South winner would jump them for the 3 seed as long as the two contenders don’t both lose.
• Texans-Titans may go to Saturday if: The Texans win. This would give the Texans a head-to-head win over the Ravens in the event the Ravens win the division, and if the Steelers lose to the Chiefs but then beat the Bengals while the Ravens lose again, the Texans would hold a conference-games tiebreaker over the Steelers as well.
• Chargers-Raiders may go to Saturday if: The Chargers and Broncos both lose OR (the Ravens or Steelers lose AND if the Broncos win, the Colts, Dolphins, and Chargers all lose). In the first scenario the Chargers need to win, or hope for losses by the other wild card contenders, to lock up their playoff ticket at all; in the second the team that wins has a chance to steal the 5 seed, while either the Broncos still need to defend their playoff spot or the Chargers can still leapfrog them for the 6 without eliminating anyone else.
• Dolphins-Jets may go to Saturday if: The Dolphins win AND Bengals-Steelers is the early game OR (the Chargers lose AND the Colts win). In the first scenario the league simply decides to settle the bottom two spots in the AFC wild card pecking order and bank on whatever lingering star power Aaron Rodgers has. In the second scenario, both the Colts and Dolphins would beat the Chargers if either of them won and the Chargers lost.
• Browns-Ravens may go to Saturday if: The Steelers lose AND the Chargers or Broncos win, OR the Steelers win AND the Bills lose AND if the Ravens lose, the Chargers and Broncos also lose. Now we’re starting to get into “break glass in case of emergency” scenarios, since the league would prefer that the Steelers and Ravens are playing for the division in the same window, and as such I don’t see this happening if the Ravens win. This is essentially the mirror image of the Bengals-Steelers scenario above.
• Jaguars-Colts may go to Saturday if: The Colts win AND the Dolphins lose AND Bengals-Steelers is the early game AND the Chargers lose. The league would much rather have the Broncos playing for whether they make the playoffs at all than what their seed would be, but if they’re left with a “break glass in case of emergency” scenario they could go with this. More likely, though, is that they’d take a game that I wouldn’t.