Morgan Wick

Return of Da Countdown – long-form style

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I profess to having something of an interest in politics, and I’m starting to follow the coming 2008 election with some interest. From here until November 4, I’ll be counting down every second here on Da Blog.

More such countdowns are forthcoming.

UPDATE: Blogger appears to bastardize the JavaScript code in the name of “debugging” and “streamlining”. I may have to host Da Countdown on the web site or switch to a Flash solution. And there’s a reason I chose this approach…

UPDATE: Switched to a different code, which appears to be working. But it doesn’t do anything more than a year in the future, and only allows the target to be chosen in hour increments.

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch and Playoff Watch: Week 14

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Well, now I’m not sure how much I should have relied on Awful Announcing for the protections not provided by Michael Hiestand, because AA pulled a brain freeze earlier this week and claimed there were protected games Week 17. Notwithstanding that that is expressly prohibited, it would also violate the limit on the number of protectable games – that or AA is forgetting his own previous post listing the protected games!

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

Last year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. CBS and Fox were able to protect one game every week each but had to leave one week each unprotected and had to submit their protections after only four weeks.

Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site:

  • Begins Sunday of Week 11
  • In effect during Weeks 11-17
  • Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
  • The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
  • The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
  • The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
  • The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
  • Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
  • NFL schedules all games.
  • Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
  • Two other rules were established earlier: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and can’t protect any games Week 17 this year.
  • Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five; the Pats and Cowboys already have six) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 18):

  • Selected game: New England @ Buffalo.

Week 12 (November 25):

  • Selected game: Philadelphia @ New England.

Week 13 (December 2):

  • Selected game: Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh.

Week 14 (December 9):

  • Selected game: Indianapolis @ Baltimore.

Week 15 (December 16):

  • Selected game: Washington @ NY Giants.

Week 16 (December 23):

  • Selected game: Washington @ Minnesota.

Week 17 (December 30):

  • Tentative game: Kansas City @ NY Jets
  • Prospects: Awful. This has the best chance of losing its spot.
  • Other possible games/Playoff Positioning Watch:
    • AFC East: Patriots clinched.
    • AFC North: Two-horse race. The Steelers are leading but the Browns are just a game back. Bengals and Ravens out. Steelers-Ravens out along with the Ravens’ playoff chances.
    • AFC South: The Colts are now two ahead of the Jaguars and the Titans and Texans are both out. Titans-Colts can still excite (see below) but is now vulnerable to an NFC game.
    • AFC West: Chargers two ahead of the Broncos and the Chiefs and Raiders are both out. The Chargers are playing the Raiders; the Broncos, the Vikings. Not looking likely.
    • AFC Wild Card: The Jags and Browns would get the nod if the season ended today, with the Titans and Bills a game back, the latter playing the Eagles. The Texans and Broncos are two back. Note the Jags-Texans matchup, probably the only serious competitor to Titans-Colts in the AFC. As the Ravens fade, Steelers-Ravens is probably out. Bengals only other team in playoff contention, and only because I’m too lazy to check the tiebreaker.
    • NFC East: Cowboys clinched.
    • NFC North: Packers clinched.
    • NFC South: Bucs up two on Saints, and Panthers would come down to tiebreaker with the Panthers still with one to play against the Bucs. Guess what week that is? Saints playing Da Bears.
    • NFC West: Seahawks’ lead over Cardinals comes down to tiebreaker.
    • NFC Wild Card: Giants and Vikings would get the nod if the season ended today. Packers-Lions now fading with NFC North locked up and Lions on a losing streak. Vikings-Broncos becomes a minor dark horse. Redskins, Lions, Saints, and Cardinals are all a game back at 6-7, lending a little credence to Packers-Lions, and the Eagles, Bears, and Panthers all have outside shots at 5-8, lending a little credence to Bills-Eagles, Saints-Bears, and Bucs-Panthers. All three of the other teams are at 3-10 and out.

Last-Minute Remarks on SNF Week 16 picks

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Week 16 (December 23):

  • Tentative game: Tampa Bay @ San Francisco
  • Prospects: Very problematic, even with the Bucs’ success, which just makes it look lopsided. Tell me NBC and the NFL won’t settle for 8-5 v. 3-10.
  • Protected games according to AA: Texans-Colts (CBS) and Packers-Bears (FOX).
  • Other possible games mentioned on Wednesday’s Watch and their records: Lions (6-7) v. Chiefs (4-9); Giants (9-4) v. Bills (7-6); Ravens (4-9) v. Seahawks (9-4); Redskins (6-7) v. Vikings (7-6); Eagles (5-8) v. Saints (5-7); Browns (8-5) v. Bengals (5-8).
  • Impact of Monday Night Football: The Saints can conceivably improve to 6-7 with a win, but it would still lag behind Skins-Vikings and Giants-Bills.
  • Analysis: Not only does Giants-Bills benefit from the Bills winning, it also benefits from not looking as lopsided as I originally thought. Skins-Vikings is the only other halfway decent game.
  • Final prediction: New York Giants @ Buffalo Bills.
  • Actual selection: Washington Redskins @ Minnesota Vikings. I take two things from this. One is that NBC and the NFL did see Giants-Bills as being awfully lopsided. Another is that they may see the Vikings as speeding ahead a little, since they’ve been on fire of late. But I might want to discount both. Selecting the Giants would have had no effect on Week 17, since the Giants are on NFL Network that week, but it would have kept NBC from selecting any other team with five primetime appearances. Only three teams fall into that category, but they include the Colts, who have a game very much in the running on that night.

Golden Bowl Tournament Quarterfinals

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At least I got any votes at all, but I got a grand total of two total votes on the poll, so I had to make decisions on the other six matchups myself.

Virginia Tech v. Oklahoma (Cotton Bowl)
In a tight contest, Oklahoma survives by the seat of their pants after stalling a late comeback attempt by the Mountaineers. Now it comes down to a battle between and in rushing defense. The marquee matchup to watch is when the Sooners have the ball, as the offense goes against the defense in points put up.

Georgia v. Ohio State (Capital One Bowl)
The Buckeyes and Tigers have a tight, low-scoring classic, as Missouri manages to contain the Buckeye running game enough to keep them in it. The Buckeyes just barely hang on for the 10-7 victory. Being a matchup between two of the most storied college football teams in the country, this game sells itself, but Georgia will now learn in a hurry just how difficult it can be to get past one of the strongest defenses in the country. Georgia does have a fairly stout defense of its own, though, and on offense, both teams’ strength lie in their respective running games. That means the matchup will focus on Chris Wells v. Knowshon Moreno.

Kansas v. USC (Fiesta Bowl)
Todd Reesing has a career day against the Knights of UCF and gives Kansas the trip to the second round they need. Meanwhile, USC puts up points in bunches and pulls off a 28-17 victory over the Eagles on the road. Now they play much closer to home against the Jayhawks, in another game that will rely much more on the arm of John David Booty than on the running game. Reesing and the #14 passing attack will have their hands full with USC’s passing defense. Clearly, the Jayhawks aren’t playing cupcakes anymore!

LSU v. BYU (Orange Bowl)
A last-second field goal gives LSU a 44-42 win over the Warriors, but Florida is not so lucky. I probably should have mentioned this at the Selection Show, but we’re assuming that all players’ injury situations are the way they would be as of the close of voting, not at full strength. Seeing Tim Tebow’s arm in a cast at the Heisman presentation, I realized he would have been lucky to play at all. Without Tebow, the Gators go down in defeat, and BYU doesn’t have to leave the state for its next game. LSU is #12 in rushing offense and #12 in points put up, but BYU is in points allowed, in total yards allowed, and in rushing yards allowed. BYU is in passing offense and #15 in total yardage, but LSU is in yards allowed and #16 in passing yardage, not to mention #18 in rushing yards allowed. It’s a veritable stat-a-palooza!

All polls expire in TWO weeks at 5 pm PT.

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 13

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NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

Last year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. CBS and Fox were able to protect one game every week each but had to leave one week each unprotected and had to submit their protections after only four weeks.

Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site:

  • Begins Sunday of Week 11
  • In effect during Weeks 11-17
  • Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
  • The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
  • The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
  • The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
  • The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
  • Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
  • NFL schedules all games.
  • Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
  • Two other rules were established earlier: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and can’t protect any games Week 17 this year.
  • Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five; the Pats and Cowboys already have six) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 18):

  • Selected game: New England @ Buffalo.

Week 12 (November 25):

  • Selected game: Philadelphia @ New England.

Week 13 (December 2):

  • Selected game: Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh.

Week 14 (December 9):

  • Selected game: Indianapolis @ Baltimore.

Week 15 (December 16):

  • Selected game: Washington @ NY Giants.

Week 16 (December 23):

  • Tentative game: Tampa Bay @ San Francisco
  • Prospects: Very problematic, even with the Bucs’ success, which just makes it look lopsided. Tell me NBC and the NFL won’t settle for 8-4 v. 3-9.
  • Protected games according to AA: Texans-Colts (CBS) and Packers-Bears (FOX).
  • Other possible games: There aren’t a lot of attractive matchups this week. Lions-Chiefs is probably out, at 6-6 v. 4-8, and as the Bills fall back to reality Giants-Bills, at 6-6 v. 8-4, is in trouble as well. Ravens-Seahawks? At 4-8 v. 8-4? Please. Skins-Vikings (5-7 v. 6-6 but likely to finish higher) might be the favorite now, and likely has an edge over Eagles-Saints (5-7 v. 5-7) for a number of reasons. At this point even Browns-Bengals has an outside shot at 7-5 v. 4-8.
  • Prediction: A lot depends on the lopsidedness factor and how much it comes into play. If it doesn’t look for Giants-Bills to get in with a Buffalo win. If the NFL cared avout the competitiveness of the game Skins-Vikings might have a better shot. But while there are weak matchups here there are better ones than what NBC might think it had to settle for. For Giants-Bills to be beaten, a few things needs to happen; a Bills loss woyld be a start. Skins-Vikings needs a Skins win, but that combined with a Vikings win and Bills loss might make it safe. This one could be wide open in many ways. Hard to read; this will be telling about the NFL’s, and NBC’s, priorities.

Week 17 (December 30):

  • Tentative game: Kansas City @ NY Jets
  • Prospects: Awful. This has the best chance of losing its spot.
  • Other possible games/Playoff Positioning Watch:
    • AFC East: Patriots clinched.
    • AFC North: Two-horse race. The Steelers are leading but the Browns are just a game back. The Browns can push Steelers-Ravens to primetime if they keep it close (likely) and the Ravens are in contention for a wild card (unlikely).
    • AFC South: The Colts are now two ahead of the Jaguars and three ahead of the Titans. Titans-Colts can still excite (see below) but is now vulnerable to an NFC game.
    • AFC West: Chargers two ahead of the Broncos and three ahead of the Chiefs and Raiders. The Chargers are playing the Raiders; the Broncos, the Vikings. Not looking likely.
    • AFC Wild Card: The Jags and either the Browns or Titans would get the nod if the season ended today, with the Bills a game back, playing the Eagles. The Texans and Broncos are two back. Note the Jags-Texans matchup, probably the only serious competitor to Titans-Colts in the AFC. As the Ravens fade, Steelers-Ravens is probably out. Dolphins cannot make the playoffs and the Jets would come down to a tiebreaker.
    • NFC East: Cowboys opening a big lead on the Giants. The Giants are on NFL Network and Dallas has too many primetime appearances. Philly and Washington are both out.
    • NFC North: The Pack have opened up a lead large enough to put the Lions and Vikings down to tiebreakers. The Vikings lose that but the Lions still have one to play against the Packers – guess what week that is?
    • NFC South: Bucs up three on Saints and Panthers. The Saints play the Bears, and Bucs-Panthers is fading. Falcons out.
    • NFC West: Seahawks have opened up a two-game lead over the Cardinals. The former plays the Falcons while the latter plays the Rams. Niners and Rams out.
    • NFC Wild Card: Giants and either the Lions, Vikings, or Cardinals would get the nod if the season ended today. Wild-card implications could lend enough credence to Packers-Lions for the Favre factor to take over from there and make it the favorite. Vikings-Broncos becomes a minor dark horse. Redskins, Eagles, Bears, Panthers, and Saints are all a game back at 5-7, which means all but three teams in the NFC are within a game of the playoffs (!), lending a little credence to Bills-Eagles, Saints-Bears, Vikings-Broncos, and Bucs-Panthers. All three of the other teams are at 3-9 but still mathematically in it.

New rankings and other errata

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You know what I just realized? The 2004 Auburn and Utah titles are going to be unified at the Sugar Bowl. Meanwhile, the BCS Title Game won’t involve an undefeated team and neither team holds any lineal title. Arkansas will defend its Princeton Title at the Cotton Bowl (“Just a few days ago, Missouri was playing for a spot in the BCS Championship game. While unsuccessful in that match, they did manage to get into another National Championship Game,” writes HeavyweightFootballChamps.com), and Illinois will defend the 2007 Boise State title in the Rose Bowl. I’m not sure if I should create a new lineal title or not. Heaven knows that both the Princeton and 2004 Auburn titles managed to stay in the SEC all year without being unified, so if Ohio State and Illinois both win their conferences, there’s no guarantee any imaginary “2007 BCS Championship” title would be instantly unified with 2007 Boise State. If LSU wins, and the two SEC titleholders win their bowls, it’s a lot less likely that LSU will completely escape winning a lineal title, or at least its lineage escaping being unified with one.

On the other hand, they may be being forced into going 12 rounds, but nothing’s stopping the Patriots and its run with the NFL Lineal Title, as shown by the latest logo to be X’ed out. But there are definitely concerns. This is now two straight weeks the Pats have been taken to the wire… by a mediocre team. The Steelers are no mediocre team. The Pats’ struggles have shown their defense to be porous against the run, and the Steelers have Willie Parker. And the New Steel Curtain just might be up to the task of stopping Tom Brady.

So the Steelers have no chance.

Maybe I’ve been watching too much wrestling, but New England is going to basically crush the Steelers – and I had been thinking about picking the Steelers just to stop the winning at some point. The point spread, I’ve heard, is -10 New England; I am guaranteeing that the Pats are going to cover and win by at least that much, or I don’t know what I’ll do. Maybe you could suggest something.

Other news and notes:

  • WHY do people keep hyping the fall of the Lions as some sort of “return to reality”? ALL FOUR TEAMS THEY’VE LOST TO IN THIS STREAK ARE LEGIT PLAYOFF CONTENDERS, EVEN THE CARDINALS! No wonder the college football polls don’t take strength of schedule into account (unless it helps them hose a non-BCS team), because no one else in any sport does either! Granted, you can say the same thing about the remaining four opponents, but I still believe in the 10-win guarantee, I’m sticking with it to the end, and win or lose I’m still picking the Lions over the Chargers and Chiefs.
  • It’s Chicago’s turn to win this week. And I’m picking the Redskins to lose for the rest of the season. Exactly what line has the Redskins as a favorite? The Redskins do have the SuperPower Ranking edge, but only barely, so no Upset Special.
  • Picking Houston over Tampa Bay at home as the Upset Special, as the Bucs may be the creation of a weak schedule. A second upset special has the Cardinals beating the Seahawks, as I’m taking that stat from last time and picking the Cards over all >.500 teams (and likely making that the, or at least an, Upset Special) and against them when facing a <.500 team. I might - might – make an exception for the Pats or Dolphins.