Morgan Wick

Introduction to Upfront Week 2007

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This week, the television industry will beg and plead with advertisers to commit to advertising on their fall schedules before knowing a thing about how the shows will do. Those who just want to watch television will have their collective ear to the door.

That’s because, as part of their pitch, the networks will let advertisers in on a little secret: the fall schedules themselves. Four months before any of it becomes reality, people will be able to dissect the slates the networks will expect us to swallow for fall. If you’re really into it, it can feel like Election Day, or the NFL Draft. I’ve dissected the schedules on my own since – has it really been since 2002? – with a break in 2005, and this week, I’m letting you in.

Here’s my analysis of what the networks need, in the order that they will present.

NBC

  • NBC is coming off an embarrasing season. It’s the only Big Four network whose season-to-date rating (as of 4/29) is under 6. That’s despite the fact it’s the only Big Four network to have non-postseason football in prime time. NBC did have “Sunday Night Football” but couldn’t use it to propel hits elsewhere in the week. “Deal or No Deal” is the only other really bright spot on NBC’s schedule, and ABC (“Dancing with the Stars”, “Grey’s Anatomy”, “Desperate Housewives”), CBS (“CSI” and “CSI Miami”, plus “Without a Trace” was bigger than “DonD”), and Fox (“American Idol” and “House”) all had multiple shows that were bigger than football, and football only gets you through a third of the season. You read that and you probably think I’m describing a network somewhere between the other three major networks and the CW, not one that’s only .5 behind the tie for second place. (At least it’s not the CW’s 2.1.)
  • NBC originally pinned its hopes for a resurgence this season on the hopes of “Studio 60 on the Sunset Strip”. By hammocking it between the surging comedies “My Name is Earl” and “The Office” on one end, and “ER” on the other, NBC hoped to mold “Studio 60” into its franchise show of the future, and perhaps gain better ground against “CSI” than “The Apprentice” had gotten. Then ABC announced it was boldly pitting “Grey’s Anatomy” against “CSI”. Within a week after unveiling their plans, they lay in tatters, and “Studio 60” would have to be thrown into Mondays at 10 with another new show, “Heroes,” as a leadin. The presence of a show similar to “Lost” in its complexity wasn’t exactly compatible to something that was more of a comfort show, and “Heroes”‘ popularity only made “Studio 60” worse for the comparison. Then there’s the fact that critics soured on the show itself as it wore on and drew unfavorable comparisons to Aaron Sorkin’s previous show, “The West Wing”. Add it all together, and “Studio 60” seems DOA at the upfronts. NBC needs more buzz shows, as the closest thing it really has is “Heroes”, especially with “Law and Order” losing its luster and “L&O: Criminal Intent” suffering since moving to 9 PM. It also has a hole to fill on Monday nights. Properly promoted and nurtured, “Friday Night Lights,” assuming the critically-acclaimed show is renewed, could be the ticket.
  • Right now NBC’s only half-hour shows are “MNiE”, “Office”, “Scrubs”, and “30 Rock”, all currently on Thursday. Comedies are in a bit of a slump right now, but this is an embarrasment for a network that once prided itself in its comedies.
  • Strong nights: Sunday (during football season), Monday (double whammy of “Heroes” and “DonD”). Weak nights: Everything else.
  • Quick tip: Don’t be afraid to make radical moves. You don’t have much to lose.

ABC

  • “Wife Swap” and “What About Brian” didn’t seem to work on Mondays, but it was the first time ABC actually had to program the night in fall in a quarter century. Now “Dancing with the Stars” seems to be working on the night; will it stay there in fall? Where would that leave Tuesdays?
  • ABC has announced that it will hold three more abbreviated seasons of “Lost” and end the show in 2010. That leaves Wednesdays an absolute mess until “Lost” returns.
  • Does ABC have any plan for Fridays?
  • Would ABC move “Ugly Betty” again to shore up another night, or does it not want to break up the “Betty”-“Grey’s” combo that blew away expectations this season?
  • Strong nights: Monday (with “DwtS”), Tuesday (with “DwtS”), Thursday, Saturday (during football season), Sunday. Weak nights: Monday (w/out “DwtS”), Wednesday (with or without “Lost”), Friday, Saturday (after football season). Personally, I think “Saturday Night (College) Football” proved that you can make Saturdays as strong as any other night of the week if you actually try. But it also confirmed a long-lingering suspicion of mine, that sports is the way to go on Saturdays. Wednesday was a winning night when it had the one-two punch of the “Dancing with the Stars” results and “Lost” but it did poorly when “DwtS” ended and “Lost” went on vacation.
  • Quick tip: Monday or Wednesday is going to be without “DwtS”. Move one of your other hits there to bide time until “Lost” returns (in the likely scenario the night in question is Wednesday).

CBS

  • The No. 1 network can’t be resting on their laurels, but they have so many laurels it’s a problem. There are so many quality/popular series there’s virtually nothing to cancel. “Jericho” and “Ghost Whisperer” are probably the two weakest dramas; “How I Met Your Mother” and “The New Adventures of Old Christine” are probably the weakest shows overall but they have to put up with “DonD” and “DwtS”.
  • “Old Christine” did well when it was at 9:30 and not 8:30. “Mother” and “The Class”, however, struggled with ratings in the 5’s and low 6’s, without “DwtS” to worry about and with NBC seeing only a minor drop-off from “DonD” to “Heroes”. What is causing a significant number of viewers of CBS’ comedy lineup to forgo the first hour?
  • The History of the Tuesday at 10 Time Slot This Season: They try “Smith” for three weeks. It gets cancelled. They try “3 Lbs.” for three weeks. It gets cancelled. Now they’re just throwing up whatever will stick. Time to put up a show you have confidence in.
  • Strong nights: Just about every night. Weak nights: Um… does Saturday count even though they win it when football isn’t on? … Friday was weak for a while… a little help here?
  • Quick tip: One word: Midseason. Tell it to all but your very best new shows.

FOX

  • Fox has more spots for new shows than its standing suggests.
  • Is “The War at Home” dead? I haven’t seen anything in my cursory check, but given the ratings since leaving the cushy spot hammocked by “The Simpsons” and “Family Guy” I wouldn’t be surprised.
  • On Mondays, Fox will have “Prison Break” and “24” at various points of the season, but neither show it’s introduced to accompany them seems to have worked, with “Standoff” being DOA when it premiered in the fall on Tuesdays.
  • “Justice” was also DOA and Fox will have to find a new show to pair with “Bones”. “The Loop” is interesting as it hasn’t aired yet at all this season. Does Fox want to renew it for Season 3 with zero numbers for Season 2? Do they want to cancel it under the same circumstances? It won’t have “American Idol” backing it up as originally planned.
  • The two comedies Fox introduced on Thursday have had very different fates. “Happy Hour” was DOA, while “Til Death” is clear for a second season. How confident is Fox in its new comedy slate? If it’s not that confident, and “War At Home” is canned, “Til Death” could be Sunday-bound. Either way Fox has a big hole to fill on Thursdays, and “Are You Smarter than a 5th Grader?” could be the ticket.
  • Friday is definitely FOX’s weakest spot. It’s the second Saturday, true, but it’s been beat by “Friday Night SmackDown!” on the CW multiple times. Any time you get beat by the CW, that’s a problem.
  • Strong nights: Any night “American Idol” is on, Saturday (when NASCAR racing is on). Strong nights compared to the rest of FOX but not to other networks on the same nights: Monday, non-“Idol” Tuesday. Weak nights: Thursday, Friday, Saturday.
  • Quick tip: Don’t be fooled by your tie for second – this is a one-show network in many ways. Having such short nights means there’s no room for error on any show.

The CW

  • This will be the first time the CW truly has a chance to present new shows.
  • The CW is not a network that averages a 2.1. It deserves to be treated more like a 2.3. That is not to say there aren’t problems, but any show that does worse than 2.0 is probably on the hot seat.
  • That would include pretty much all of the CW’s comedies, even “Everybody Hates Chris”, which gave UPN so much publicity in that network’s final season. Ratings have been degraded by going up against “Dancing with the Stars”, but “Chris” and “Girlfriends” were only doing around a 2.0 even before that. It’ll be interesting to see what the CW does with “All of Us” which bore the brunt of the “DwtS” onslaught, as well as “The Game”, which was the CW’s lowest-rated comedy when “DwtS” wasn’t on but became its highest-rated once it became the only comedy that didn’t have to battle the ABC juggernaut. Why the CW ended “Reba”, one of its strongest shows, is a little unclear.
  • The CW will need to fill the departures of “7th Heaven” and “Gilmore Girls”. “Girls” was still succeeding in the ratings and will probably hurt the worst. The highest rated traditonal scripted show that leaves is “Smallville”, also one of only four hour-long scripted shows left, along with “Supernatural”, “One Tree Hill”, and “Veronica Mars”, which is on the bubble. If the CW renews “VM” (which, according to reports, is looking more like a possibility than it used to) then “OTH” is the most natural fit to nurture it, though “America’s Next Top Model” would probably be better both in the ratings and thematically (though that would repeat a strategy UPN tried without success), and “Supernatural” should probably break out of “Smallville”‘s shadow to allow both shows to nurture new shows. That “OTH” and “Supernatural” are being considered as potential linchpins speaks volumes about how deep the CW’s lineup really is. (“Supernatural” would be a better pick than “OTH” but doesn’t fit thematically with “VM” all that much, much like “OTH” doesn’t fit with “Smallville”.)
  • Strong nights: Wednesday. Weak nights: Sunday, Monday.
  • Quick tip: You better have a strong pilot slate, and promote the hell out of it.

Feel free to print and fill out the grids below as we go along. Also feel free to leave a comment if you would like me to do year-round analysis of TV. I’ve been thinking of doing daily or weekly ratings roundups of the broadcast networks. On Friday, after everyone’s done, I’ll have a roundup of all the action and look at the schedule as a whole.

Sun

7pm

7:30pm

8pm

8:30 pm

9 pm

9:30 pm

10 pm
ABC
NBC
CBS
FOX
CW

Mon

8pm

8:30 pm

9 pm

9:30 pm

10 pm
ABC
NBC
CBS
FOX
CW

Tue

8pm

8:30 pm

9 pm

9:30 pm

10 pm
ABC
NBC
CBS
FOX
CW

Wed

8pm

8:30 pm

9 pm

9:30 pm

10 pm
ABC
NBC
CBS
FOX
CW

Thu

8pm

8:30 pm

9 pm

9:30 pm

10 pm
ABC
NBC
CBS
FOX
CW

Fri

8pm

8:30 pm

9 pm

9:30 pm

10 pm
ABC
NBC
CBS
FOX
CW

Sat

8pm

8:30 pm

9 pm

9:30 pm

10 pm
ABC
NBC
CBS
FOX

Sports Watcher for the Weekend of 4/28-29

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All times PDT.

Saturday
9-5 PM: NFL Football, NFL Draft Rounds 1-2 (ESPN). Which will it be this year? Will the second round be actually treated with a little respect, or at the same level as the second-day rounds?

5-7:30 PM: NBA Basketball, San Antonio @ Denver (ESPN). Carmelo Anthony’s best chance of making it out of the first round is probably to have Joey Crawford officiating.

7:30-10 PM: NBA Basketball, Utah @ Houston (ESPN). What do you want, personalities, or good basketball? If the latter, this game is for you.

Sunday
10:30-3 PM: NASCAR NEXTEL Cup Racing, Aaron’s 499 (FOX). Better than nothing.

5-7:30 PM: NHL Hockey, Anaheim @ Vancouver (VS.). Actually, if I had chosen the NHL game yesterday I would still have the other NBA game that day and the NBA doubleheaders today. But today’s NBA games, well, suck.

Sports Watcher for the Weekend of 4/21-22

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All times PDT.

Saturday
9:30-12 PM: NBA Basketball, New Jersey @ Toronto (ESPN). The NBA Playoffs begin and we probably feel too apathetic to care.

1-3:30 PM: MISL Soccer, Philadelphia @ Detroit (VS.). This is the championship game of a league you may well have never heard of. But they’ll fight for it with all the guts they can scrounge up.

9-12:30 AM (both coasts): Ultimate Fighting Championship, UFC 70 (SpikeTV). I said last week that the ratings for this could be the most pivotal sports ratings in years. I would be surprised if it failed to get at least a 2, which would put it above most tennis, the WNBA, MLS, Arena Football, non-NASCAR or Indy 500 racing, and even the NHL.

Sunday
10-12:30 PM: NHL Hockey, Calgary @ Detroit (CBC/NBC). Yes, there is another playoffs going on. Is it not a crime that Versus is, at this point, showing ONE game a night (usually one CBC is also airing, so people who can get CBC don’t get an alternate game, or in some cases, even an alternate production) on weeknights with three or four games? This is worse than the NBA shuttling games to NBA TV. Good job growing the game in this country, boys.

5-8 PM: MLB Baseball, NY Yankees @ Boston (ESPN). It’s never too early to become obsessed about the Sox and the Yankees!

I’m sickened by the incessant coverage of the Virginia Tech shooting story…

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…but not because of the story itself.

Why is it that every time we have a story like this, we have to have non-stop 24/7 coverage of it? Why is it that news sources that have nothing to do with general news are covering it (and not even with a related angle)? Does it really matter, at least the way most news sources are covering it, to anyone outside the general Blacksburg area? Does it really deserve more than a single news story on a standard newscast and then move on? Could it be that, on some level, despite all we say about how “sickening” and “tragic” the story is, we actually enjoy listening to stories about it, that we take some sort of perverse pleasure in letting it distract us from our lives? Could it be that, on some level, we actually want to hear about tragedy? The ancient Greeks did spend much of their free time watching tragedies played out on the stage, and we do seem to value tragic plays and movies more than comedies!

On the other hand, we’re already getting plenty of people moaning about not being able to comprehend “what could drive someone to do something like this.” Would someone do me a favor and try to find out what would drive someone to do something like this? Because I have a feeling it would lead to some disconcerting conclusions about society, ourselves, American culture, the assumptions we make about people, and even the core of human nature.

The NFL schedule story no one’s reporting on

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I noticed something interesting about Year 2 of NBC’s Sunday Night Football.

Not the introduction of Keith Olbermann to the studio show, but rather, something about the schedule.

It still consists of the first ten weeks being pre-assigned, while Weeks 11-17 are “flex schedule” weeks, with games being chosen two weeks in advance (one week in the case of Week 17). But last season, the primetime spot on the schedule was simply left blank for the flex weeks.

This year, the primetime spot actually has a game listed, even though it could still be moved to an afternoon spot to make room for a better game.

As I intend on prognosticating on what games will be shown in prime time in this space, that brings up a bevy of questions that I’m not finding the answers to. Will CBS and Fox be able to “protect” the game listed in late night and keep it in the afternoon, or indeed, will they still be able to protect games at all? How closely will NBC hew to the game chosen for late night? Will a game have to be a complete dud for NBC to move away from it, or is the game just a placeholder for something close to the status quo last season, when NBC chose the games it thought best given the restrictions they had to work with (though they seemed to have certain perplexing biases, and choosing Packers-Bears Week 17 seemed to defeat the purpose of moving games only one week prior)?

All of a sudden, I’m dazed and confused and don’t know where to go.

Sports Watcher for the weekend of 4/14-15

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All times PDT.

Saturday
1-3 PM: MISL Soccer, Detroit at Milwaukee (VS.). Did you know the Detroit Ignition are an expansion team? You wouldn’t be so impressed if you knew four teams make the playoffs… out of a six-team league.

4-6:30 PM: NHL Hockey, Tampa Bay at New Jersey (CBC). Folks in Canada are incenced the game between the Pittsburgh Penguins (w/Sid the Kid) and Ottawa Senators (only Canadian team in the Eastern Conference Playoffs) is not in prime time, and they have to watch an all-American game on CBC, solely to appease NBC. But the worst part is, the game CBC is airing isn’t available nationally in the States! Personally, I blame NBC for not showing any hockey in primetime other than the Finals. If you really want to grow the game so much in the States by force-feeding us Sidney Crosby, would it really hurt to put it in primetime on by far the weakest night of the week, which the Big Four hardly bother to program anyway?

(Before you think “Is that a sign they’re adding insult to injury by throwing CBC a game no one on either side of the border cares about?” consider that the game on Versus pits the 8-seed Islanders “versus” the 1-seed Sabres. Talk about a squash.)

(Incidentially, while CBC recently locked up a long-term deal with the NHL, NBC only re-upped for one more year with an option for a second… which at first glance appears to be a retread of the previous deal, which was similar, until you note that this coming year is also the last year of the NBA on ABC.)

Sunday
10:30-3 PM: NASCAR Racing, Samsung 500 (FOX). Three drivers have over 900 points out of five with 800. It’s lonely at the top of NASCAR.

5-8 PM: MLB Baseball, San Diego @ Los Angeles (ESPN). It’s Jackie Robinson Day in MLB and Bud Selig is allowing any player to wear his number; the Dodgers, the team that first put him in the big leagues, is one of a few teams doing it for everybody (Mike Cameron is the only one for the Padres). Expect more 42’s than even Douglas Adams could have ever dreamed. Clearly that day will be the day our planet is obliterated for a freeway bypass.

Baseball and hockey pre-empt boxing, TNA wrestling, and BodogFight MMA from the Watcher, but I did find out that my local cable system now shows exactly THREE PPV channels (outside the porn-only channels), which show porno in lighter hours than you’d think. Is “on demand” creating a new world, one which could force boxing, wrestling, and MMA to re-think their strategies as they increasingly become the only reason for PPV’s existence (alongside porn, but that might be headed for “on demand” as well once parental controls are advanced enough to allow it)? Spike TV will carry UFC 70 for free in the States next week in what could be the most watched (by network executives) and most pivotal sports event on television in recent memory. It could be a test that could establish, once and for all, the viability and popularity of MMA, could be a “test of the waters” for boxing and MMA, to determine if cable is financially viable, to determine if it’s time to come out of the PPV shelter and possibly on the road to respectability, and if that part’s successful, it could be one final nail in the coffin for PPV. (What it would do to professional wrestling, for which PPV is an integral part of the business model to the point where a “big event” happens once a month, not once a year, is anyone’s guess.)

Sports Watcher for the weekend of 4/7-8

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All times PDT.

Saturday
12:30-3 PM: MLS Soccer, Colorado at DC United (ABC). Finally, the MLS season opener doesn’t compete with the Final Four pre-show. Of course, now it’s up against the first round of the Masters…

4-7 PM: College Hockey, Michigan State v. Boston College (ESPN). The third-biggest championship the NCAA administers. Of course, it’s light years behind even women’s college basketball and isn’t really that far from last place.

7-10 PM: Ultimate Fighting Championship, UFC 69 (PPV). I could write reams on why UFC is whipping boxing’s ass right now, but I’ll save them for a later date. (But a word of advice: If you want to become really mainstream and not elicit comparisons to illegal cagefighting or pro wrestling, dump the steel cage. I don’t know of any fighting organization of any kind that doesn’t use anything more than the classic ropes.)

Sunday
11:30-4 PM: PGA Golf, The Masters Final Round (CBS). You know, if that Tiger Woods gets a few more major wins, maybe, one day, if he’s really lucky, he’ll be enshrined in the Hall of Fame.

5-8 PM: MLB Baseball, Boston @ Texas (ESPN). Even though Curt Schilling will be Boston’s starter, we’ll still be caught up in Dice-K mania.

Next weekend: Hot NHL playoff action! (cue crickets)

Sigh… this never ends

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99% of the time, I’m a – well, not nice guy, but certainly not an absolutely terrible one. 99% of the time, I go on with life just fine, doing work and my own things, and don’t really cross other people the way they sometimes cross me.

The remaining 1% of the time, though, seems to completely overwhelm the remaining 99%.

What is going on here? If college expects everyone to act absolutely perfect all the time, how is it even possible for anyone to leave high school not perfect? If high school and lower levels aren’t to make people perfect, and can easily shepherd imperfect people along past it, shouldn’t college recognize that and not assume that everyone is going to act perfect all the time?

Not as though either level should be in the business of teaching social mores, but if there are going to be people who are coming in without the requisite social mores then, at some level, there needs to be a class in social mores. If school is going to teach those things instead of academic topics, they should at least be upfront about it.

And if Asperger’s syndrome numbers are really on the rise, not just a result of better diagnoses (and maybe even if it is, since that would mean millions of people have been treated inappropiately to their reality), you need to be ready. Everyone needs to be ready.

What were my parents thinking when they didn’t indoctrinate me? Or brainwash me as the case may be? Never assume anyone is going to take the burden off your shoulders, or that anything is going to happen “naturally”.

Sometimes I’ll act out how I feel about certain people’s idiocy. But if it’s that extreme you’ve embarrassed yourself already. The chances aren’t any worse than it otherwise would, it just might have a little more punch.

I’m done ranting, but believe me, you haven’t heard the last of me…

Sports Watcher for the Weekend of 3/31-4/1

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All times PDT.

Saturday
12-2:30 PM: NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series, Kroger 250 (FOX). The Truck Series graduates from Speed Channel… for a couple of races per year.

3-5 PM: College Basketball, Georgetown v. Ohio State (CBS). At this point, the best thing for my bracket is for Ohio State to go on to win the national championship. My bracket is a mess right now, and I need to come away salvaging something.

5:45-7:45 PM: College Basketball, UCLA v. Florida (CBS). If you think it’s 2006 all over again, you’re wrong. This is only the Final Four, not the national championship.

Sunday
12-1 AM: WWE Hall of Fame Induction Ceremony (USA). Nothing like a bunch of players of a fake sport being inducted into a nonexistent hall of fame, especially when you’ve heard of maybe one or two of the people going in, most of the inductions are left out of the hour show, and even that show is on after everyone has gone to bed.

10-11:30 AM: PBA Bowling, Tournament of Champions (ESPN). I’ll be watching the NBA, as ABC has some pretty good games, but I have a policy of putting every championship possible on the Watcher.

12-3 PM: LPGA Golf, Kraft Nabisco Championship (CBS). I support women’s sports in every form, so of course I’ll be watching Dallas and Phoenix. And NASCAR. Haven’t seen the Car of Tomorrow yet. But this is on the Watcher because it happens to be a major and I have the aforementioned rule on championships.

5-8 PM: MLB Baseball, NY Mets @ St. Louis (ESPN2). I pull for women’s basketball huge, so why am I picking Opening Night over the Women’s Final Four? Because without fail, every single year I find myself watching it, and often being fascinated with it. Maybe it’s just the lack of baseball we’ve had all winter.

(Yes, wrestling fans, I know I left out WrestleMania but included the HoF ceremony. I only list wrestling as a joke when there’s nothing else on.)

The 2007 Mid-Major Conference

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Refer to this post if you don’t know what this is about or to catch up on the rules.

This year, six conferences produced multiple bids to the NCAA tournament: the MVC, MWC, WAC, A-10, CAA, and Horizon. These conferences are guaranteed one spot each in the Mid-Major Conference.

Four teams reached the Sweet 16, all from different conferences; only one of these teams did not come from a multi-bid conference. (In my view, Memphis’ trip to the Sweet 16 is tainted by the fact there were no major teams in its pod.) Of the three multi-bid conferences that did not produce a Sweet 16 team, all had one team win its first-round game and one team lose its first-round game. (This also applies to the three conferences to produce Sweet 16 teams as well.)

This leaves only one spot in the MMC to be determined by my discretion, with no conference restrictions.

Without further ado, the eight members of the 2007 Mid-Major Conference:

Butler (Horizon League)
Southern Illinois (Missouri Valley Conference)
UNLV (Mountain West Conference)
Memphis (Conference USA)
Nevada (Western Athletic Conference)
Xavier (Atlantic 10)
Virginia Commonwealth (Colonial Athletic Association)
Winthrop (Big South Conference)
Honorable mentions: Appalachian State, Akron, Marist

Davidson, Appalacian State, and Winthrop were the main contenders for the last spot. Davidson’s case was hurt by a big loss in the first round of the NCAA Tournament and the fact that it would lose a tiebreaker to App State. I wanted to reward the strong year for the SoCon with an MMC spot, especially since I considered App State’s resume to be awfully strong to dismiss completely for an NCAA bid, but getting demolished by Ole Miss in the first round of the NIT didn’t exactly fill me with confidence. Winthrop finally broke through the glass ceiling and won its first NCAA Tournament game; that must deserve special recognition. Rest assured, App State would be the first team in if the MMC were nine teams deep.

Marist makes the honorable mentions because it’s the only team from a conference not producing multiple NCAA bids to win its first round NIT game.