Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 15

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it still says late games start at 4:15 ET instead of 4:25):

  • Begins Sunday of Week 11
  • In effect during Weeks 11-17
  • Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
  • The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
  • The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
  • The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
  • The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
  • Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
  • NFL schedules all games.
  • Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
  • Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 last year as well as the first year of flexible scheduling, because NBC hosted Christmas night games those years and all the other games were moved to Saturday (and so couldn’t be flexed), but are otherwise protected after Week 5.
  • In the past, three teams could appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. I don’t know how the expansion of the Thursday Night schedule affects this, if it does. No team starts the season completely tapped out at any measure; eight teams have five primetime appearances each, but only the Broncos and Bears don’t have at least one game that can be flexed out. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 17 (December 30):

AFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION
LEADERS
WILD CARD WAITING IN
THE WINGS (6-8)
EAST
49-5
59-5
8-6
EAST
310-4
68-6
CLINCHED
WEST
211-3
7-7
CLINCHED
SOUTH
112-2
CLINCHED
NFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION
LEADERS
WILD CARD WAITING IN
THE WINGS (6-7)
EAST
48-6
59-5
2 teams at 8-6
NORTH
310-4
68-6
2 teams at 8-6
WEST
210-3-1
8-6
9-5 8-6
SOUTH
112-2
8-6
CLINCHED 6-7-1
  • Tentative game: None (NBC will show game with guaranteed playoff implications).
  • Possible games: Ravens-Bengals, Packers-Vikings, Cowboys-Redskins, Eagles-Giants.
  • Cowboys-Redskins will be picked if: The Giants lose OR the Cowboys win. Both teams split the season series with the Giants, but the Giants can’t finish with a division record better than 3-3, while the Cowboys-Redskins winner will pick up at least their fourth division win. The Redskins won the first game against the Cowboys and so would sweep them with a win, so even with a Cowboys win this week a loss to the Redskins would eliminate them from the division. As this is the most TV-friendly option, it seems very likely, with the caveat that the loser could still get a wild card spot, and even if this scenario doesn’t play out…
  • Eagles-Giants will be picked if: The Giants win AND the Cowboys and Redskins lose, which would put this scenario (scroll to the bottom) into play. As would…
  • Packers-Vikings could theoretically be picked if: The Vikings win AND the NFC East teams all lose, as the Vikings would lose a tiebreaker to any of them but swept the Bears. But if that were to happen, the Vikings win by itself means I can’t see a scenario where the Cowboys-Redskins loser gets a playoff spot, wiping out Packers-Vikings’ one potential saving grace.
  • Ravens-Bengals will be picked if: The Ravens lose AND the Bengals beat the Steelers AND the Giants and Redskins win AND the Cowboys lose. Even then, the Ravens already have a playoff spot and the Bengals-Steelers result would assure the Bengals of one too; I haven’t researched that infernal common-games tiebreaker between the Colts and Bengals, but it’s very possible this game would merely determine home-field advantage for a rematch the following week, whether as the 3-6 or 4-5 game (if New England loses out, a Ravens win in this game gives them the 3 since they beat the Pats).

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 14

Note: This week’s post does not include the results of the Thursday night game.

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it still says late games start at 4:15 ET instead of 4:25):

  • Begins Sunday of Week 11
  • In effect during Weeks 11-17
  • Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
  • The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
  • The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
  • The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
  • The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
  • Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
  • NFL schedules all games.
  • Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
  • Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 last year as well as the first year of flexible scheduling, because NBC hosted Christmas night games those years and all the other games were moved to Saturday (and so couldn’t be flexed), but are otherwise protected after Week 5.
  • In the past, three teams could appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. I don’t know how the expansion of the Thursday Night schedule affects this, if it does. No team starts the season completely tapped out at any measure; eight teams have five primetime appearances each, but only the Broncos and Bears don’t have at least one game that can be flexed out. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 16 (December 23):

  • Selected game: San Francisco @ Seattle.

Week 17 (December 30):

AFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION
LEADERS
WILD CARD WAITING IN
THE WINGS (5-8)
NORTH
49-4
59-4
2 teams at 7-6
WEST
310-3
67-6
CLINCHED
EAST
210-3
7-6
CLINCHED 6-7
SOUTH
111-2
9-4
NFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION
LEADERS
WILD CARD WAITING IN
THE WINGS (6-7)
EAST
48-5
58-5
2 teams at 7-6
NORTH
39-4
68-5
8-5
WEST
29-3-1
7-6
8-5 7-6
SOUTH
111-2
7-6
CLINCHED 6-6-1
  • Tentative game: None (NBC will show game with guaranteed playoff implications).
  • Possible games: Jets-Bills, Ravens-Bengals, Bears-Lions, Packers-Vikings, Bucs-Falcons, Texans-Colts, Dolphins-Patriots, Cowboys-Redskins, Steelers-Browns, Seahawks-Rams.
  • Because of how many games this week have playoff implications, I will not give any speculation or scenarios for what games might be picked until next week.

The State of ESPN

I am of the opinion that ESPN does not get a fair shake from the sports blogosphere, that the sports blogosphere is likely to nitpick and take whatever angle on a situation is least favorable to ESPN while ignoring potentially exculpatory or explanatory circumstances, that much of the criticism leveled at ESPN is overblown, and whatever its other faults, it’s far better at being a “news” organization than most actual American news organizations. Even its debate shows represent one more side than Fox News and MSNBC are likely to give you; I continue to push for a general-news version of PTI.

But recently, criticism of ESPN seems to have come to a head, and perhaps the biggest threat the prospect of competition from NBC and Fox poses is an alternative to what passes for journalism at ESPN. While NBC SportsTalk has been disappointing most of the times I’ve watched it (at one point seeming to devolve into “First Take, Evening Edition”) and the TV version of Pro Football Talk came across to me as actively worse than ESPN’s shows (NFL32, now airing at the same time, seems to have improved tremendously), The ‘Lights held the promise of being almost a must-watch show (too bad it’s shrunk instead of grown and may be hamstrung by NBCSN’s other morning efforts), and Fox may well be planning on going after SportsCenter more directly, while providing more platforms for Jay Glazer, considered the NFL’s best reporter.

So reading SportsBusiness Daily‘s interview with John Skipper, I have to wonder how much ESPN even grasps the criticisms leveled at them. Let’s go step-by-step:

ESPN President John Skipper gave a full-throated defense of the quality of ESPN’s journalism, saying the company does more to cover sports than any other entity.

And that’s the problem. ESPN is so huge, and makes up so much of the coverage of sports (especially with the decline of newspapers and local sports minutes on local newscasts), that it effectively determines the sports agenda for a not-insignificant portion of its audience who may not have Internet access or may not be aware of sites like Deadspin and Fanhouse or even Yahoo, and who only hear of sites connected with other networks when those networks plug them. This gives ESPN a tremendous responsibility, perhaps one no organization can be expected to live up to. As the Poynter Review Project puts it in their final column as ESPN’s collective ombudsman:

ESPN’s critics seize on every mistake, which can make the company’s editors, producers and PR folks defensive at times. That’s understandable; it’s not easy waking up each morning knowing you’re a big target.

But to put it simply … tough. ESPN’s sheer size and power demand such scrutiny. Media analyst SNL Kagan estimates ESPN will make $8.2 billion in revenue this year. It controls the rights to a huge range of live sports, using that content as fuel for its sports-information engine…This places considerable strain on its journalists. ESPN draws lines between its news division and its business and production arms, and we never heard of an executive storming across that line and telling ESPN journalists what to do or what not to do. At its best, ESPN’s reporting is thorough and uncompromising about matters of great concern to its business partners: Take its recent series on football concussions, or the throw-the-script-away “SportsCenter” that followed the debacle of an NFL replacement ref’s blown call that cost Green Bay a victory in Seattle. Both storylines served fans and undermined the business interests of the NFL.

But although ESPN has sought to separate its divisions and so preserve its journalists’ integrity, there is a massive and inherent conflict of interest here, so the arrangement demands constant monitoring. ESPN is so big that it occupies a position in sports not unlike that of Microsoft in the ecosystem for computer hardware and software in the late 1990s, or Apple’s place at the intersection of hardware, apps and downloads today.

ESPN can’t be an observer or bystander because its mere presence changes things. This is true not just in business but also in journalism: As noted earlier, if ESPN covers a story, it becomes big news; if it ignores it, often it withers. But occasionally, as happened in the wake of the grand jury indictment against former Penn State assistant football coach Jerry Sandusky, the rest of the world overrules ESPN’s judgment and the network must reverse course and pursue a story it originally treated lightly.

Much of the time, ESPN’s journalism is thorough, professional and of high quality: Able to pick and choose from the world’s best sportswriters, analysts and investigative reporters, it has hired and developed a substantial news operation. That’s sorely needed. Sports might be entertainment, but they’re multibillion-dollar forms of entertainment, and although we want sports to be escapes from our troubles and issues, the truth is that they reflect — sometimes even magnify — the world and all its flaws.

Sports are a window into public health; labor relations; institutional power and abuses; government regulation; children and education; and matters of race, class and gender. We need storytellers and watchdogs to explore these issues and questions in sports as badly as we need them to do so elsewhere.

Whether the story is child sexual abuse, head injuries, the proper role of college athletics, performance-enhancing drugs, public funding of stadiums or the advancement of women, we need journalists such as ESPN’s — and they, in turn, need standards and practices that are clearly and wisely defined, and faithfully followed. That will allow fans to benefit from ESPN’s enormous resources while insulating them from the network’s considerable conflicts. And that will help us better see the world through sports.

And that’s an ombudsman…

He specifically highlighted ESPN as the only sports media company that uses an ombudsman and has published social media policies for its reporters and on-air talent.

…that’s been roundly criticized throughout its term where previous ombudsmen were not, with even its attempts to make up for the criticism only engendering more criticism, yet still was able to criticize ESPN’s social media policy just six months ago. (I’m going to attempt an unbiased assessment of the job Poynter has done as ombudsman next week.)

“We have standards of journalism that are at the highest order,” Skipper told THE DAILY during an extensive interview in his N.Y. office. “There’s a separate question, which is, ‘Are we adhering to them?’ But at least our intention and what we publish is that we are going to adhere to high standards.

There are some cases where a few bad apples have done things that didn’t live up to ESPN’s journalistic standards, among them the multiple ESPN employees who were disciplined for using the phrase “chink in the armor” in reference to Jeremy Lin earlier this year. Unfortunately, there are also reports of cases where higher-ups at ESPN have explicitly told employees not to follow certain standards, even when those employees and on-air personalities themselves wanted to. More important than “are we adhering to them” is “does ESPN even care about them other than for their PR value?”

As evidence, Skipper brought up the Ben Roethlisberger story from ’09, when the Steelers QB was named in a civil suit that accused him of rape. ESPN was criticized for not reporting on the story initially. But Skipper said the newsroom made the correct decision to not report the problem at the time because ESPN had a policy in place not to report on civil suits. The company has since changed that policy. “We changed our policy and set specific guidelines. We said that we can no longer ignore it; if it becomes widespread and the AP goes with it, we will go with it, too. We’re willing to change to adapt to changing times.

As I said at the time, ESPN’s failure to report on the story was only part of the issue; a bigger issue involved the context of what ESPN did choose to report on, including apparent violations of that same policy. That issue, in and of itself, wasn’t necessarily fixed by loosening the apparent policy against reporting on civil suits, and indeed, ESPN has continued to come under fire for being slow to report on numerous stories since, including the Jerry Sandusky scandal.

We decided to be quicker. We started Front Row so we could be a little more transparent. I don’t think anybody responds more or has higher standards.

From what I can tell, Front Row is a constant barrage of ESPN PR and little else. It hardly adds any more “transparency” to what happens in Bristol, and is hardly “responsive” to the issues laid out here.

One of the most persistent criticisms has dealt with the potential conflict between ESPN’s news gathering journalists and its business execs, who invest billions of dollars into the leagues those journalists cover. Such a conflict does not exist, Skipper said. “The thing that makes me angriest is that ESPN has a conflict. Give me three examples where we pulled up. I think that we did a comprehensive story on stadium and arena food standards and found about one quarter of the stadiums to be deficient in terms of their health standards. I don’t recall anyone else doing that or being in that much conflict with all of their partners. I think I remember a whole week of stories about the concussions in the NFL. But people still write it as a matter of fact, ‘Of course, ESPN’s not leading the way in writing about concussions.’ Other than the N.Y. Times, we’ve clearly been the most aggressive on that. Talk to David Stern about whether he thinks we pull up on stories.”

I don’t think that’s the problem. If anything, ESPN is accused of having the opposite problem: on the one hand, giving too much coverage to LeBron James, Tim Tebow, and Linsanity while penalizing leagues that don’t have relationships with them with limited SportsCenter exposure, and on the other, pursuing stories that don’t pan out, such as the Saints wiretapping scandal. Where ESPN pulls up is in stories that haven’t broken yet and in more peripheral aspects of its programming, as in the NFL-mandated death of “Playmakers”. On the concussion issue, it’s worth noting that until reports started coming out about it (not initially from ESPN, I might add), ESPN was as in bed with the NFL’s physicality as anyone, as anyone who does a Google search for “jacked up” will learn. By the way, according to Deadspin’s “Bristolmetrics” feature, ESPN covered a meaningless Monday Night Football game more than the Jovan Belcher saga.

Another persistent criticism deals with the popularity of debate programming on shows like “First Take.” But Skipper says critics are mistakingly applying journalistic standards to a show that is not steeped in journalism. “It’s just another show. It’s not journalism. Nobody goes, ‘Gee, look how awful it is that CBS does these awful reality shows. Doesn’t that taint their great news organization?’

No one wants First Take to be some bastion of journalism, though it’s worth noting that First Take was not always two solid hours of Skip Bayless and Stephen A. Smith “embracing debate”. The problem is twofold: first, that First Take is tainting everything else ESPN does, and second, that even by debate-show standards First Take disappoints. At least Around the Horn and PTI talk about whatever’s in the news that day; does First Take exist as anything but a way for Skip and Stephen A. to spout their inane opinions over and over for two hours? At the height of Tebowmania, First Take might as well have been called “The Tim Tebow Show”. People don’t want First Take to be a bastion of news; they want it not to exist at all, at least in its current form.

Nobody goes, “Gee, look how awful it is that CBS’ news shows are doing nothing but talking about their awful reality shows and the things those shows are talking about. Doesn’t that taint their great news organization?” You know why? Because no other news organization with any reputation to uphold lets the equivalent of Skip Bayless and Stephen A. Smith set their news agenda. Can you imagine if Andy Rooney’s Sunday rant was the only thing the CBS Evening News reported on for the rest of the week?

But people say, ‘Gee, that awful debate that you’re doing, how can the great ‘SportsCenter’ coexist with the debate of ‘First Take.’ I don’t know, how do infomercials coexist with the great journalism they’re doing someplace else? We’re not a micromanaged place. Jamie Horowitz is the producer of ‘First Take.’ He’s gone in a direction that’s working. Ratings are up.”

Again, the problem isn’t that SportsCenter can’t coexist with First Take, it’s that it’s not coexisting with it.

Skipper says he takes complaints seriously. So far, the complaints have not resonated outside of sports media, and all research suggests the ESPN brand has not been damaged by any criticisms — at least not yet. “The brand’s never been stronger. We care most about our brand with fans. We have no choice but to worry about our brand with our friends in the media and with advertisers and with business people.

To this, I’m just going to quote Awful Announcing:

Not for all viewers and readers certainly, not even the majority, or probably even close to it.  For most ESPN watchers, the network’s journalistic practices are less than an afterthought to the latest game, debate, or evening SportsCenter.  But enough engaged sports fans who follow ESPN almost as closely as they do the sports themselves are beginning to lose faith in the self-proclaimed worldwide leader.  The explosion of blogs and Twitter has meant there are more engaged fans than ever before who pursue information beyond the Bristol city limits and don’t have to take ESPN at their first word.

ESPN’s brand doesn’t rest on its journalistic integrity. It rests on its coverage of live sports events and the fact it holds so much power in the world of sports its brand could only possibly decline if ESPN itself declines, especially if it shields its viewers from its missteps. No one has ever said that ESPN is a bastion of great sports journalism, so in terms of “protecting its brand” ESPN doesn’t have to care about how strong its journalism is. But if ESPN comes under attack from new sports networks run by NBC and Fox, networks even people who don’t even know the sports blogosphere exists can stumble upon and discover what’s happening outside the Bristol bubble? Then ESPN will have to care right quick.

Last-Minute Remarks on SNF Week 16 Picks

Week 16 (December 23):

  • Tentative game: San Diego @ NY Jets
  • Despite both San Diego and the Jets winning, and the Bengals and Jets losing, Tim Tebow did not play against the Jags today, so there are no signs he will be starting going forward, which is the only scenario under which the tentative would be kept.
  • Final prediction: San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks.

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 13

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it still says late games start at 4:15 ET instead of 4:25):

  • Begins Sunday of Week 11
  • In effect during Weeks 11-17
  • Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
  • The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
  • The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
  • The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
  • The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
  • Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
  • NFL schedules all games.
  • Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
  • Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 last year as well as the first year of flexible scheduling, because NBC hosted Christmas night games those years and all the other games were moved to Saturday (and so couldn’t be flexed), but are otherwise protected after Week 5.
  • In the past, three teams could appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. I don’t know how the expansion of the Thursday Night schedule affects this, if it does. No team starts the season completely tapped out at any measure; eight teams have five primetime appearances each, but only the Broncos and Bears don’t have at least one game that can be flexed out. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 18):

  • Selected game: Baltimore @ Pittsburgh.

Week 12 (November 25):

  • Selected game: Green Bay @ NY Giants.

Week 13 (December 2):

  • Selected game: Philadelphia @ Dallas.

Week 14 (December 9):

  • Selected game: Detroit @ Green Bay.

Week 15 (December 16):

  • Selected game: San Francisco @ New England.

Week 16 (December 23):

  • Tentative game: San Diego @ NY Jets
  • Prospects: 5-7 v. 4-8. What a horrible game, there’s no way it isn’t getting flexed… wait a second… did Rex Ryan just bench Mark Sanchez? Is that… is that the Tebow Express I hear coming into the station?!? But is it too late for even Touchdown Jesus to save the day, especially with Sanchez keeping his starting job for now?
  • Likely protections: Giants-Ravens (FOX) and Bengals-Steelers (CBS).
  • Other possible games: It helps Chargers-Jets’ case that a lot of the alternatives are questionable at best; Vikings-Texans keeps getting more and more lopsided, and Saints-Cowboys and Rams-Bucs are mediocre at best, with the Saints unable to get back to .500 in time. 49ers-Seahawks, on the other hand, currently sits at 8-3-1 v. 7-5 and may well end up deciding the NFC West, and certainly will have wild card implications.
  • Analysis: So far ahead is 49ers-Seahawks, when Vikings-Texans is the only other unprotected game with a team above .500, that it’s really the only game worth considering, and a shoo-in under normal circumstances. If Sanchez is benched for Tebow, who leads them to a win to get to 6-7, the Seahawks lose, and the Bengals and Steelers lose as well to put the Jets only one game out of a playoff spot, and there are any rumblings of Tebow keeping the starting job on Monday, then I think there is at least a chance the Tebow factor takes over and keeps the spot for Chargers-Jets – remember, NBC’s chances to get Tebow last year were stymied at every turn. But everything has to break down perfectly, or the NFC West will take over Sunday night. (The 49ers would be maxed out on primetime appearances, but it’s extremely unlikely that Cardinals-49ers would be considered for a Week 17 flex; only way that happens is if the standings set up so that a San Fran loss puts them either behind the Seahawks or tied with the Rams, and even then the Niners might still get a wild card and the NFL would have to fear that 49ers-Cardinals would be their only Week 17 option for it to trump 49ers-Seahawks.)

Week 17 (December 30):

AFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION
LEADERS
WILD CARD WAITING IN
THE WINGS (5-7)
WEST
49-3
58-4
CLINCHED
NORTH
39-3
67-5
2 teams at 7-5
EAST
29-3
7-5
3 teams at 5-7
SOUTH
111-1
8-4
NFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION
LEADERS
WILD CARD WAITING IN
THE WINGS
EAST
47-5
58-4 5-6-1
2 teams at 6-6 5-7
NORTH
38-4
67-5
8-4
WEST
28-2-1
6-6
7-5 6-6
SOUTH
111-1
6-6
CLINCHED 6-6
  • Tentative game: None (NBC will show game with guaranteed playoff implications).
  • Possible games: Jets-Bills, Ravens-Bengals, Bears-Lions, Packers-Vikings, Bucs-Falcons, Texans-Colts, Dolphins-Patriots, Cowboys-Redskins, Cardinals-49ers, Seahawks-Rams.

Who SHOULD Be Going to Which Bowls?

I’ve had so much stuff on my plate I haven’t been doing any college football rankings posts for some time, and I’ll be releasing the week-by-week rankings for November throughout December (here‘s Week 8). But that won’t stop me from doing my annual roundup of the bowl matchups if they were determined by the C Ratings. Teams separated by a slash reflect adherence to the actual BCS rules; teams separated by an “or” reflect the fallout from the Georgia Tech exemption. Central Michigan is the only bowl-eligible team that doesn’t go to a bowl; Georgia Tech would knock out Middle Tennessee State.

Bowl 

Tie-ins 

Date/Time/Network 

Gildan New Mexico 

MWC /5

Dec. 15, 1 p.m. ESPN 

Albuquerque, N.M. 

Pac-12

Air Force v. Washington

Famous Idaho Potato  

MAC

Dec. 15, 4:30 p.m. ESPN

Boise, Idaho 

WAC

Utah State v. Ball State/Kent State

S.D. County Credit Union Poinsettia 

MWC

Dec. 20, 8 p.m. ESPN 

San Diego 

BYU

Boise State v. BYU

Beef ‘O’ Brady’s St. Petersburg 

Big East

Dec. 21, 7:30 p.m. ESPN 

St. Petersburg, Fla. 

C-USA

East Carolina v. (Ohio or Bowling Green)/San Jose State

R+L Carriers New Orleans 

C-USA

Dec. 22, Noon ESPN 

New Orleans 

Sun Belt

Arkansas State v. SMU (Rice?)

MAACO Las Vegas 

MWC

Dec. 22, 3:30 p.m. ESPN

Las Vegas 

Pac-12

Fresno State v. Arizona State

Sheraton Hawaii 

C-USA

Dec. 24, 8 p.m. ESPN 

Honolulu 

MWC /5

Tulsa (SMU?) v. Nevada

Little Caesars Pizza 

Big 10 (/Sun Belt)

Dec. 26, 7:30 p.m. ESPN 

Detroit 

MAC

Northern Illinois/Toledo v. Western Kentucky

Military Bowl Presented By Northrop Grumman 

ACC (/MAC )

Dec. 27, 3 p.m. ESPN 

Washington, D.C. 

Army

Kent State/Bowling Green v. San Jose State/West Virginia

Belk 

ACC

Dec. 27, 6:30 p.m. ESPN

Charlotte, N.C. 

Big East

Syracuse/Pittsburgh v. Duke or NC State

Bridgepoint Education Holiday 

Big 12

Dec. 27, 9:45 p.m. ESPN 

San Diego 

Pac-12

USC v. TCU/Baylor

AdvoCare V100 Independence 

ACC

Dec. 28, 2 p.m. ESPN 

Shreveport, La. 

SEC

Louisiana Tech v. Middle Tennessee State or Ohio

Russell Athletic 

ACC

Dec. 28, 5:30 p.m. ESPN 

Orlando, Fla. 

Big East

Pittsburgh/Cincinnati v. Virginia Tech

Meineke Car Care of Texas 

Big 12

Dec. 28, 9 p.m. ESPN

Houston 

Big 10

Texas Tech/TCU v. Purdue

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces 

C-USA

Dec. 29, 11:45 a.m. ESPN 

Fort Worth 

MWC

San Diego State v. Rice (Tulsa?)

New Era Pinstripe 

Big 12

Dec. 29, 3:15 p.m. ESPN 

Bronx, N.Y. 

Big East

Louisville v. Iowa State/Texas Tech

Kraft Fight Hunger 

Pac-12 (/ACC )

Dec. 29, 4 p.m. ESPN2 

San Francisco 

Navy (/ACC )

Arizona v. Navy

Valero Alamo 

Big 12

Dec. 29, 6:45 p.m. ESPN 

San Antonio

Pac-12

Texas/Oklahoma State v. Oregon State

Buffalo Wild Wings 

Big 12

Dec. 29, 10:15 p.m. ESPN 

Tempe, Ariz. 

Big 10 (/4?)

Baylor/Texas v. Nebraska

Franklin American Mortgage Music City 

ACC

Dec. 31, Noon ESPN 

Nashville, Tenn. 

SEC (/8?)

Vanderbilt v. Bowling Green/Ohio or Duke

Hyundai Sun 

ACC

Dec. 31, 2 p.m. CBS 

El Paso, Texas 

Pac-12

NC State or Georgia Tech v. UCLA

AutoZone Liberty 

C-USA

Dec. 31, 3:30 p.m. ESPN 

Memphis, Tenn.

SEC /9 (or 7/8?)

Central Florida v. Mississippi

Chick-fil-A 

ACC

Dec. 31, 7:30 p.m. ESPN 

Atlanta 

SEC

Clemson v. LSU

TaxSlayer.com Gator 

Big 10 (/5?)

Jan. 1, Noon ESPN2 

Jacksonville, Fla. 

SEC

Michigan v. Mississippi State

Heart of Dallas 

Big 12

Jan. 1, Noon ESPNU 

Dallas 

Big 10

West Virginia/Iowa State v. Minnesota

Outback 

Big 10

Jan. 1, 1 p.m. ESPN 

Tampa, Fla. 

SEC /4 (East)

South Carolina v. Northwestern

Capital One 

Big 10

Jan. 1, 1 p.m. ABC 

Orlando, Fla.

SEC

Georgia v. Michigan State

Rose Bowl Game presented by Vizio 

BCS (Big 10 )

Jan. 1, 5 p.m. ESPN 

Pasadena, Calif. 

BCS (Pac-12 )

Wisconsin v. Stanford

Discover Orange

BCS (ACC )

Jan. 1, 8:30 p.m. ESPN 

Miami 

BCS

Florida State v. Cincinnati/Syracuse

Allstate Sugar 

BCS (SEC )

Jan. 2, 8:30 p.m. ESPN 

New Orleans 

BCS

Florida v. Oklahoma/Northern Illinois

Tostitos Fiesta 

BCS (Big 12 )

Jan. 3, 8:30 p.m. ESPN 

Glendale, Ariz. 

BCS

Kansas State v. Notre Dame

AT&T Cotton

Big 12

Jan. 4, 8 p.m. FOX 

Arlington, Texas 

SEC /4 (West)

South Carolina v. Oklahoma State/Oklahoma

BBVA Compass 

Big East

Jan. 5, 1 p.m. ESPN 

Birmingham, Ala. 

SEC /9 (/Sun Belt)

Rutgers v. Louisiana-Lafayette

GoDaddy.com 

MAC

Jan. 6, 9 p.m. ESPN 

Mobile, Ala. 

Sun Belt

Toledo/Ball State v. Louisiana-Monroe

Discover BCS National Championship 

BCS

Jan. 7, 8:30 p.m. ESPN 

Miami 

BCS

Alabama v. Oregon

What Bob Costas’ halftime commentary should have been

As seems to so often be the case, whenever a tragedy happens that shakes us to our very core we’re left unable to figure out how we should feel, knowing only that however we feel, someone is going to tell us we’re wrong. Such is the case with the shocking murder-suicide of Jovan Belcher on Saturday, which have left many of us unsure what to make of any of it.

We like to put people into black-and-white categories as a society – we like to have someone to blame and someone to be the victim. We like to fit everything into a nice and neat story. No one would put any blame on the girlfriend who was killed or the young girl who was orphaned; they are both clearly victims. But let’s face it, neither are they the story here. No one even knew who either of them were until they were reported in the aftermath of the tragedy. The reason this has become a national story is because the man who did it was an NFL player.

Certainly it’s hard to sympathize with Jovan Belcher, who took the life of his girlfriend and then himself, leaving his young daughter without any parents and rattling the Kansas City Chiefs organization to its core. It’s tempting to blame him, to turn him into a monster. But ultimately, it’s hard to blame him either; Belcher’s actions were in keeping with suffering from mental illness. Which brings us to the elephant in the room, the question of whether Belcher’s living, playing the particularly physical position of linebacker, had anything to do with his death.

Five and a half years ago, professional wrestler Chris Benoit took the life of his wife – and didn’t spare his son – before hanging himself. His brain was subsequently examined by neurosurgeons at West Virginia University, who compared it to that of “an 85-year-old Alzheimer’s patient”, and his father attributed his actions to the effects of repeated bumps to the head over the course of his wrestling career. For a league already haunted by the specter of concussions, as the Saints’ Bountygate appeals continue to drag on, to witness such a chillingly similar turn of events should serve as a reminder of the consequences of this sport’s brutality.

The case of Chris Benoit also, perhaps, suggests exactly what we should make of this tragedy. Before his death, Benoit was one of the more beloved figures in wrestling, but that adoration quickly turned to sadness and anger as most of Benoit’s career was all but forgotten and Benoit himself became a symbol of the effects of the culture of wrestling. Jovan Belcher was hardly a superstar, so perhaps it’s telling that we find ourselves conflicted in how to feel about him all the same. Regardless, while it’s too early to know exactly why Belcher did what he did, it’s entirely possible that in a few years, Jovan Belcher could be every bit as much a symbol of the NFL’s concussion problem as Dave Duerson, the former Chicago Bears safety who committed suicide nearly two years ago.

Predictions for the National Baseball Hall of Fame Class of 2013

The National Baseball Hall of Fame’s selections are performed by members of the Baseball Writer’s Association of America who have been members for at least 10 years.

A six-person Screening Committee has selected a list of players that have been eligible for less than 15 years to be included on the ballot. A player must have played for 10 years and spent 5 years out of baseball before they can be considered for induction into the Hall of Fame. Players that last played in the 2007 season will be eligible for induction in 2013.

The BBWAA members will submit their ballots before December 31, and any player named on 75% of the ballots will be selected for induction into the National Baseball Hall of Fame. No more than ten players may be named on any ballot.

My prediction for the National Baseball Hall of Fame Class of 2013 is:

Mike Piazza, Dodgers

Sports TV War news and notes

How much have we gotten used to having big events on cable over the past four years? When ESPN and the BCS announced, as expected, that the new college football playoff, including the championship game and non-“contract bowls”, would be going to ESPN, there was nary a peep about the fact that the new championship game would remain on cable for the life of the contract. No one, aside from Sports Media Watch, found it in any way noteworthy that college football will crown its champion on cable for a total of a decade and a half.

They should; ESPN’s Monday Night Football contract currently only ends in 2021 (though it’s likely to be extended to 2022), meaning by the time the contract for the new playoff ends, it could well be the only thing propping up ESPN’s hegemony, for a full four years. If cable has moved to an a la carte system by 2022, or if Internet streaming is making an undeniable impact on the viability of cable television, ESPN may find itself forced to move the championship game to ABC… or it could use its monopoly on the college football playoff to inflate its viewership numbers beyond what they actually should be and thus keep rights above the station those developments should by all rights place them.

Fox’s rumored victory in the race for Dodgers rights and announced acquisition of almost half of the YES network shores up the health of its regional sports network operation and technically puts Fox right back into competition with Comcast in a market. While it’ll now be a long time, if ever, before Fox is forced to leave the Los Angeles market or even shut down one of its two regional sports networks there, it doesn’t really change the calculus for the state of national FSN programming or the national FSN brand; I would bet MSG Plus was one of FSN’s more loyal non-in-house affiliates. (On the Yankees’ end, while it does hedge their risk for a potential collapse in the RSN market, it doesn’t leave them as well prepared if a streaming-heavy future replaces it.)

However, it’s clear that Fox is serious about launching an ESPN competitor, even placing it in the same tradition as the launch of the Fox network itself or the launch of Fox News as a competitor to CNN. I don’t see the point of their proposal of running ads in split-screen even when nothing is happening during the break; while it should work for NASCAR and could work for soccer and even UFC, it seems supremely pointless for other sports, and I could see advertisers balk at applying it across the board.

Sport-Specific Networks
11.5 14.5 7 6.5 1 1.5

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 12

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it still says late games start at 4:15 ET instead of 4:25):

  • Begins Sunday of Week 11
  • In effect during Weeks 11-17
  • Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
  • The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
  • The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
  • The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
  • The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
  • Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
  • NFL schedules all games.
  • Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
  • Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 last year as well as the first year of flexible scheduling, because NBC hosted Christmas night games those years and all the other games were moved to Saturday (and so couldn’t be flexed), but are otherwise protected after Week 5.
  • In the past, three teams could appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. I don’t know how the expansion of the Thursday Night schedule affects this, if it does. No team starts the season completely tapped out at any measure; eight teams have five primetime appearances each, but only the Broncos and Bears don’t have at least one game that can be flexed out. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 18):

  • Selected game: Baltimore @ Pittsburgh.

Week 12 (November 25):

  • Selected game: Green Bay @ NY Giants.

Week 13 (December 2):

  • Selected game: Philadelphia @ Dallas.

Week 14 (December 9):

  • Selected game: Detroit @ Green Bay.

Week 15 (December 16):

  • Selected game: San Francisco @ New England. If you thought last year’s early flexing-out of Colts-Patriots was weird, how about an early keeping of a game? Especially a game that isn’t even the best unprotected game of the week, with Broncos-Ravens almost certainly unprotected? But it’s hard to see any game overcoming the tentative game bias against an 8-3 v. 8-2-1 battle of division leaders; even if Broncos-Ravens had gone to 10-2 v. 9-3, and 49ers-Patriots had gone to 8-4 v. 8-3-1, it wouldn’t be terribly surprising that the NFL would stick with the tentative, as both games would still be matchups of division leaders. The real surprise is that Broncos-Ravens hasn’t been moved to the anchor spot of CBS’ doubleheader, especially given the Peyton Manning factor; it’s kind of hard to sell Steelers-Cowboys at this point by comparison, despite it being one of only two trips to Cowboys Stadium the Tiffany Network will be able to take all year, and being two teams with larger, more committed fanbases.

Week 16 (December 23):

  • Tentative game: San Diego @ NY Jets
  • Prospects: 4-7 v. 4-7. After the debacle Thanksgiving night, do you really think NBC wants to go back to the Jets’ circus again? Only God (through His prophet Tebow) can save this game now.
  • Likely protections: Giants-Ravens (FOX) and Bengals-Steelers if anything (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Should prevent this from being a whole no-flex season, but with the Vikings’ slide 49ers-Seahawks might be a better option than Vikings-Texans, which is now looking very lopsided. Bengals-Steelers is also an option if it’s unprotected, and keep an eye on Saints-Cowboys.

Week 17 (December 30):

AFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION
LEADERS
WILD CARD WAITING IN
THE WINGS (4-7)
WEST
48-3
57-4
4-7
EAST
38-3
66-5
5-6
NORTH
29-2
6-5
2 tied at 6-5 5-6
SOUTH
110-1
7-4
NFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION
LEADERS
WILD CARD WAITING IN
THE WINGS
EAST
47-4
57-4 5-6
2 tied at 5-6 5-6
NORTH
38-3
66-5 5-6
7-4 4-6-1
WEST
28-2-1
6-5 4-7
6-5 6-5 4-7
SOUTH
110-1
6-5
  • Tentative game: None (NBC will show game with guaranteed playoff implications).
  • Possible games: Jets-Bills, Ravens-Bengals, Bears-Lions, Packers-Vikings, Bucs-Falcons, Texans-Colts, Dolphins-Patriots, Cowboys-Redskins, Cardinals-49ers, Seahawks-Rams.