Week 14 (TNF only): Will the first test of TNF flexing involve taking out the mighty Patriots and Steelers in favor of the name-value black hole known as the Houston Texans? Will the first flex decision of the year involve moving the Rodgers-less Jets into a primetime window? I’m… not sure.
The problem is that the Los Angeles Rams ended the Packers’ four-game losing streak over the weekend in a game that wasn’t particularly competitive, raising the prospect that their game against the NFC South-leading Saints in two weeks won’t be particularly competitive either. The Texans’ relative success means that their game against the Browns that week is improving its prospects, but there are a few problems with it. At the most basic level, the Rams have three wins to the Pats’ two, but I’m willing to ignore that since the Pats and Steelers have significantly more name value. Moreover, the league might be unwilling to feature the Browns and DeShawn Watson too much considering the controversy swirling around him. But they haven’t entirely kept them out of standalone windows even with the increase in the TNF appearance cap meaning they don’t have to schedule them there, which brings me to the big problem: the Browns’ TNF game against the Jets is the following week, and if the Jets are at or above .500 without Rodgers that probably isn’t being flexed out. The NFL could have the Browns and Jets play a game with a three-day rest mismatch, but my inclination is that they’ll avoid that if it’s at all possible.
So if that’s not an option, where does that leave this week? As much as the Texans don’t have any name value, they do have a potential Rookie of the Year candidate in C.J. Stroud, and currently sit just a game behind the three non-Baltimore AFC North teams for a playoff spot. That’s a team you might want to give some showcase to (remember when the NFL’s schedule-makers said they didn’t want people’s first exposure to a playoff team to come in January?), and as it stands the Texans aren’t scheduled for any featured windows, not even TNF. In the past, NFL broadcasters have indicated that they value name value over the actual quality of the teams when deciding what games to keep and which to try to replace them with; would Amazon prefer to have even the current woeful Pats playing the always-popular Steelers over two teams with significantly less name or star power in the Texans and Jets? Would the NFL be willing to pull the trigger in this situation? I don’t know, and we’re in uncharted territory here trying to figure out how willing the league is going to be to pull a TNF flex. For all I know the league is going to treat TNF flexing as the same sort of “break glass in case of emergency” scenario the SNF early flex has turned out to be; worth noting that there’s one fewer flexible week on the TNF schedule than there are SNF early flex week. A flex could be mighty tempting in this scenario simply because it would allow the league to replace the Packers-Giants MNF game with any game it wants, but that’s probably two teams with more name value than the Pats and Steelers, and right now the only viable game not involving a team below .500 is Jags-Browns.
The Jets play a struggling Chargers team at home on Monday Night Football tonight. A loss would raise a lot of questions about how good a team the Jets really are without Rodgers. A win wouldn’t do that much to the Jets’ perception (though the Chargers are favored), but it would suggest the Texans and Jets are two teams that are at least decent. If the NFL wants to get their test of TNF flexing out of the way, they probably won’t have a better opportunity this season than this (though keep an eye on Colts-Falcons as an alternative to Saints-Rams).
Final prediction:
- Houston Texans @ New York Jets to TNF (if the Jets win tonight).
- No changes (for now) (if the Jets lose tonight).
Er, the Browns-Jets TNF game is Week 17, not Week 15. Further, the NFL and Amazon knew all about the Watson situation when they put the Browns on the schedule for TNF.
Speaking of Week 15, the unprotected of Cowboys-Bills and Eagles-Seahawks (likely the latter) is a prime candidate to replace the Chargers-Raiders, even though both won to improve to 1 game under .500.
The main reason yesterday’s Rams-Packers game wasn’t overly competitive was the Rams were playing their third-string quarterback rather than Matthew Stafford due to injury. Stafford is pretty much week-to-week, so he would almost certainly be back well before Week 16’s scheduled TNF game against the Saints, and also likely playing before the NFL/Amazon would have to pull the trigger.
Unfortunately for the Giants, they’re also on their third-string quarterback, and will be come Week 14. Unless the NFL is simply going to swap out the Packers-Giants and swap in the Texans-Jets on MNF, they’re going to pull the trigger on the TNF swap for Week 14 to open up their options.
Steveegg: I doubt Chargers-Raiders will be flexed. Even though Las Vegas is fraudulent, a Chiefs-Pats matchup where KC has already clinched the AFC West vs an eliminated Patriots is more likely to be flexed out than a game where both teams are probably still in the hunt. As much of a draw Mahomes is, the NFL & the networks usually get a bit more “flex-happy” around the end of the season
Week 14’s TNF decision has to be made by this Thursday, November 9th. I suspect that they’ll keep the crappy game of NE/PIT, 2 well known teams, and Belichick/Tomlin. I’d love to see them go for it and make the game of JAX-CLE be placed there, but I am skeptical.
I have a hunch that Thursday games won’t even be flexible next season.
With the Chargers victory over the Jets, it looks more like the Chargers vs Raiders game week 15 on a Thursday Night will stay.
I just checked nflcommunications.com and see that there are no changes to the Week 11 schedule, which really comes as no surprise.
As for the Thursday flex situation:
That could be fixed by going to a 19-week season (second bye week tied to mid-week games with Week 19 the “all games in a conference at the same time” format with all games in one conference at 3:30, the other at 8:15 and divided up between ALL of the broadcast partners using DT-2/3/4 sub-channels as needed) with (when not interfered with by the College Football Playoff) Amazon Prime games moving to Saturday night beginning with Week 15 and NFL Network getting a Friday night game in place of Saturday night. That would more easily allow for a flex to Saturday (which would in this case include any game scheduled for NFL Network) with perhaps games for BOTH Amazon Prime and NFL Network in that scenario not announced until after Week 11 for Week 15. Otherwise, it becomes a much simpler flex from Sunday to Saturday for Amazon Prime games.
Of course, what we don’t know now is how the expanded College Football Playoff that goes to 12 teams beginning next season changes things.
As for TNF, I suspect Week 14 is unchanged and the only possible change I see is Week 17 where Jets-Browns is replaced by Saints-Bucs regardless of what is done with Week 16 (since even though that would be a third TNF appearance for the Saints AND a second road game, it would be if Saints-Rams remains Week 16 TNF a situation where the Saints play on normal rest for a second straight road game while the Bucs are playing at home on three days rest and that did happen on one occasion in 1997, when the Bengals, playing on three days rest clobbered a then-Tennessee Oilers team playing on normal rest 41-14).
Well Bears just won against the Panthers on TNF, I still think win or lose by the Vikings against the Saints this Sunday I still think the week 12 Monday night game in Minneapolis against the Bears gets flexed out if I had to guess in favor of Jaguars Texans.
With Chicago’s win, I think the only way Bears-Vikings gets flexed out in Week 12 is with a Raider win on SNF this week. Would put them at 5-5, & Chiefs-Raiders would pull a better rating than Bears-Vikings.
I would love to see Trevor Lawrence vs CJ Stroud in week 12 on MNF. But Chiefs Raiders is defiantly a possibility as well.
Morgan said: “Week 14 (TNF only): Will the first test of TNF flexing involve taking out the mighty Patriots and Steelers in favor of the name-value black hole known as the Houston Texans? Will the first flex decision of the year involve moving the Rodgers-less Jets into a primetime window? I’m… not sure.”
Well, I just looked at nflcommunications.com and there’s no change to Week 14’s TNF. I’m not surprised. Though a bit annoyed. I think the NFL has forgotten that they added a flex possibility to TNF games in Weeks 13 to 17. I know they can only flex 2 of the 5 in that span and only 1 of the remaining look to be a real chance to flex.
Thanks for shitty TNF games NFL. Much appreciated.
Is there any possibility that if, the falcons and saints both win this weekend, that NO-ATL could be flexed to MNF in place of CHI-MIN? They would both be within one game of each other, which makes the week 12 matchup for the division lead. And would give the winner a leg up on the division. Plus of all the NFC south matchups, those two are the most bitter about each other, so better rivalry also.
Dustin: Falcons-Saints was probably protected by FOX. More likely Chiefs-Raiders gets flexed in for Bears-Vikings.