The NFL schedule is set to be released on Wednesday, and as I did last year, I’m attempting to put together the sort of schedule the league should be constructing, with the goal of maximizing distribution of the best games and minimizing the likelihood of flexes being desirable but impossible due to CBS and Fox being guaranteed one half of each division rivalry as well as a minimum number of games involving their most desired teams in their respective conferences.
As a review of my philosophy governing this exercise, at least down the stretch of the season, if the three main featured windows (the late doubleheader, Sunday night, and Monday night) don’t contain the three best games of the week, any game that is among the three best but is buried as an undercard should not be set up to be protected. In other words, they can’t be the most desirable game on the singleheader network, and if they’re on the doubleheader network then the main late game can’t be a divisional game where the other matchup is on another network, or a game involving the Cowboys or Chiefs – and such situations should generally be avoided during the main flex period in general, or at least avoiding having games with teams with significantly worse expected records hogging spots while games between teams expected to be .500 or above can’t or won’t be flexed in. Creating a situation where the league would want to pull a flex if teams perform exactly as expected is already something of a failure of schedule construction, as flexible scheduling should only come in if teams don’t perform as expected; creating a situation where the league would want to pull a flex but can’t should be completely unacceptable.
Details on how I put this together, as well as the schedule itself, after the jump.
As a proxy for how good each team is expected to be, I start by taking each team’s win totals at the three Official Sportsbook Partners of the NFL: Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel. This year I ended up waiting until May 5 or 6 to get the win totals in hopes that Aaron Rodgers would make a decision about joining the Steelers by the time I finally gave in, and ended up paying for it because by that point, DraftKings was offering five different win total lines for people to bet, spaced two wins apart and with the one in the middle usually, but (especially with the teams at the low end) not always, offering the most even odds, so it’s not always clear what one single line it would go with if forced to choose. This had me wondering if I would end up abandoning win totals as the basis for this exercise entirely, but by the end of the week FanDuel was offering three different win totals for each team, so this may just be a thing they do after a certain point and I just happened to jump in too late.
As such, I mostly took the average of teams’ win totals at Caesars and FanDuel only, with DraftKings being used as a reference to break selected ties; for the most part, I break ties using teams’ odds to win the Super Bowl, but there’s still some fudging in terms of which games would potentially be listed in each tier. Here’s how the teams break down; the first “Tier 1” row is a catchall signifying that all games between teams in that row fell into Tier 1, as defined below.
| Tier 1 | Bills, Eagles, Ravens, Chiefs, Lions, 49ers, Bengals, Washington |
| 9.5 | Rams, Packers, Chargers, Broncos, Buccaneers, Texans |
| 8.5 | Vikings, Bears, Steelers, Cardinals |
| 8.5/7.5 | Dolphins, Seahawks |
Then I sort every game by the perceived quality of the worse team in the game and divide them into tiers of 18 games each, as described here, so if the games were evenly distributed there would be one game from each tier in each week. Ideally, the three main featured windows of the late doubleheader, Sunday nights, and Monday nights would have all their games come from tiers 1-3, with tiers 4 and 5 filling out “double doubleheaders”, Monday night doubleheaders, and special windows, plus the Thursday night slate; then tier 6 and the rest of tier 5 would fill out most of the main games in the 1 PM ET window (I don’t go as far as to identify a tier 7 as that would involve teams expected to be below .500 and the point of this exercise isn’t to identify lead 1 PM games anyway). That’s not always possible, and for various reasons the league and networks don’t prioritize the strictly best games anyway, so I merely try to maximize how much of the best games end up featured, using these principles and procedures:
- Start by “drafting” the 8-9 games I think NBC, ESPN, Fox, CBS, and Amazon would most want. The first four get two games each while Amazon gets the ninth game depending on how easy it would be to give them that game (ie, if it’s a Cowboys game, the game gets held in reserve depending on the Thanksgiving schedule).
- Fill out the rest of the late doubleheader windows with the games involving the most attractive teams, making sure to leave aside enough Cowboys and Chiefs games for NBC and ESPN as well as giving CBS their quota of two Cowboys games. Then fill out the Sunday night slate (including Opening Night), then Monday night. Only then should Thanksgiving (as well as any international games that haven’t already leaked) be filled out (though the need to fill them out should be kept in mind throughout the process).
- Generally, whichever division has the highest-ranked third-best team should have their Week 18 games distributed as 2 vs. 3 and 1 vs. 4. Any division in which the top two teams qualify for Tier 2 or higher cannot have those two teams play each other in Week 18.
- All Tier 1 games, as well as any Tier 2 games being played on the West Coast, must be placed in featured windows.
- CBS and Fox are guaranteed one half of each divisional rivalry, so schedule accordingly. However, if a divisional game is designated as a late doubleheader game, the return match must be scheduled for a different featured window on another network.
- Remaining Tier 2 and 3 games not placed in featured windows must be identified as lead 1 PM ET games that are a) prior to the main flex period, b) on the singleheader network in a week where the game is not higher-rated than the lead doubleheader, Sunday night, or Monday night games, or c) on the doubleheader network in a week where the lead game is not a divisional, Cowboys, or Chiefs game, and if in December, is not higher rated than the games in the main featured windows (same as condition b). No more than one game per network per week may be identified this way. Tier 3 games on the West Coast must follow condition b) regardless of whether they follow condition a); if this is not possible, try to place the game in a week with a higher rated 1 PM singleheader game, and if it’s still not possible, place it on the doubleheader network in a week where the lead game is not Tier 1 but is still higher rated, as is the 1 PM game. (Note that while the Vikings qualified to have two games in Tier 3, I didn’t bother to place any of their games in this way.) No more than one Tier 3 West Coast game may be placed in a given week, regardless of network.
- Every team that would fill out the top seven tiers (or has better than +200 odds to make the playoffs) must receive at least one game in a featured window, and every team that made the playoffs last year and has a win total of at least 8 must be given a Sunday night game.
Note that, while I did try to give each network games that I can see each network airing, and I did try to put each game in a time on the calendar that makes sense to me, the purpose of this post is more to list the games than could and should be given featured windows than to specify specific ones, so don’t read too much into the specific slots and networks I assigned each game to. I also freely admit that this schedule isn’t necessarily one the league would have come up with, especially in that it doesn’t share the wealth of primetime games among as many teams as the league would probably prefer. Lastly, in an inversion of last year, I’ve attempted to get this out before any games are officially announced, but have incorporated leaks of the international schedule and (the now-announced) Kickoff Game. With all that out of the way, let’s look at the schedule I came up with. Asterisks indicate that the window in question is an official flex scheduling window (not including early flex windows).
Week 1:
- Kickoff Game (Sep 4, NBC): Cowboys @ Eagles
- Brazil game (Sep 5, YouTube): Chiefs v. Chargers
- Sun afternoon (Sep 7, CBS): Broncos @ Washington
- Sun 4:25 (Sep 7, Fox): Bears @/v. Packers
- SNF (Sep 8, NBC): Bengals @ Bills
- MNF (Sep 9, ESPN/ABC): Steelers @ Jets
Week 2:
- TNF (Sep 11, Amazon): Cardinals @ Bengals
- Sun 4:25 (Sep 14, CBS): Chiefs @/v. Broncos
- SNF (Sep 14, NBC): Packers @ Steelers
- MNF (Sep 15, ABC): Vikings @ Cowboys
- MNF (Sep 15, ESPN): Dolphins @/v. Bills
Week 3:
- TNF (Sep 18, Amazon): Bengals @ Browns
- Sun afternoon (Sep 21, CBS): Broncos @ Eagles
- Sun 4:25 (Sep 21, CBS): Washington @ Chargers
- SNF (Sep 21, NBC): Cowboys @ Lions
- MNF (Sep 22, ABC): Bears @ 49ers
- MNF (Sep 22, ESPN): Jaguars @/v. Texans
Week 4:
- TNF (Sep 25, Amazon): Ravens @ Dolphins
- Dublin game (Sep 28, NFLN): Vikings v. Steelers
- Sun 4:25 (Sep 28, Fox): Packers @ Lions
- SNF (Sep 28, NBC): Eagles @ Chiefs
- MNF (Sep 29, ESPN): Giants @ Broncos
Week 5:
- TNF (Oct 2, Amazon): Lions @ Rams
- London game (Oct 5, NFLN): Vikings v. Browns
- Sun 4:25 (Oct 5, Fox): Washington @ Eagles
- SNF (Oct 5, NBC): Packers @ Bears
- MNF (Oct 6, ESPN/ABC): Ravens @ Chiefs
Week 6:
- TNF (Oct 9, Amazon): Seahawks @/v. 49ers
- London game (Oct 12, NFLN): Broncos v. Jets
- Sun afternoon (Oct 12, CBS): Buccaneers @ Texans
- Sun 4:25 (Oct 12, CBS): Ravens @ Packers
- SNF (Oct 12, NBC): Lions @ Washington
- MNF (Oct 13, ESPN): Eagles @ Chargers
Week 7:
- TNF (Oct 16, Amazon): Steelers @ Bears
- London game (Oct 19, ESPN+): Rams v. Jaguars
- Sun afternoon (Oct 19, CBS): Buccaneers @ Bills
- Sun 4:25 (Oct 19, CBS): Chiefs @ Cowboys
- SNF (Oct 19, NBC): 49ers @ Texans
- MNF (Oct 20, ESPN): Washington @ Packers
Week 8:
- TNF (Oct 23, Amazon): Buccaneers @/v. Falcons
- Sun afternoon (Oct 26, CBS): Texans @ Ravens
- Sun 4:25 (Oct 26, Fox): Cowboys @ Washington
- SNF (Oct 26, NBC): Chiefs @ Bills
- MNF (Oct 27, ESPN): Lions @ Bengals
Week 9:
- TNF (Oct 30, Amazon): Broncos @/v. Chiefs
- Sun 4:25 (Nov 2, Fox): Packers @ Cowboys
- SNF (Nov 2, NBC): Rams @ Eagles
- MNF (Nov 3, ESPN): Bears @/v. Vikings
Week 10:
- TNF (Nov 6, Amazon): Texans @ Chargers
- Berlin game (Nov 9, NFLN): Falcons v. Colts
- Sun afternoon (Nov 9, Fox): Buccaneers @ Lions
- Sun 4:25 (Nov 9, CBS): Eagles @ Bills
- SNF (Nov 9, NBC): Washington @ Vikings
- MNF (Nov 10, ESPN): Cardinals @/v. Rams
Week 11:
- TNF (Nov 13, Amazon): Patriots @ Titans
- Madrid game (Nov 16, NFLN): Washington v. Dolphins
- Sun 4:05 (Nov 16, CBS): Broncos @/v. Chargers
- Sun 4:25 (Nov 16, Fox): 49ers @/v. Rams (possible split window)
- SNF (Nov 16, NBC)*: Ravens @/v. Bengals
- MNF (Nov 17, ESPN/ABC): Lions @ Chiefs
Week 12:
- TNF (Nov 20, Amazon): Vikings @ Seahawks
- Sun afternoon (Nov 23, Fox): Eagles @ Buccaneers
- Sun 4:25 (Nov 23, CBS): Chargers @ Chiefs
- SNF (Nov 23, NBC)*: Lions @ Packers
- MNF (Nov 24, ESPN)*: Bengals @ Broncos
Week 13:
- Thanksgiving (Nov 27, Fox): Bears @ Lions
- Thanksgiving (Nov 27, CBS): Cardinals @ Cowboys
- Thanksgiving (Nov 27, NBC): Ravens @ Steelers
- Black Friday (Nov 28, Amazon): Rams @/v. 49ers
- Sun 4:25 (Nov 30, Fox): Washington @ Chiefs
- SNF (Nov 30, NBC)*: Chargers @ Dolphins
- MNF (Dec 1, ESPN/ABC)*: Eagles @ Packers
Week 14:
- TNF (Dec 4, Amazon)*: Cowboys @ Bears
- Sun 4:25 (Dec 7, CBS): Bengals @/v. Ravens
- Sun 4:25 (Dec 7, Fox): Lions @ Eagles
- SNF (Dec 7, NBC)*: Buccaneers @ Rams
- MNF (Dec 8, ESPN/ABC)*: Bills @ Texans
Week 15:
- TNF (Dec 11, Amazon)*: Packers @ Broncos
- Sun 4:25 (Dec 14, CBS): Texans @ Rams (possible split window)
- SNF (Dec 14, NBC)*: Ravens @ Bills
- MNF (Dec 15, ABC)*: Seahawks @ Washington
- MNF (Dec 15, ESPN)*: Cardinals @ Buccaneers
Week 16:
- TNF (Dec 18, Amazon)*: Bills @/v. Patriots
- Saturday (Dec 20, NBC): Texans @ Chiefs
- Saturday (Dec 20, Peacock): Vikings @/v. Lions
- Sun 4:25 (Dec 21, Fox): Eagles @ Cowboys
- SNF (Dec 21, NBC)*: Bears @ Washington
- MNF (Dec 22, ESPN/ABC)*: Rams @ Ravens
Week 17:
- Christmas 1 PM ET (Dec 25, Netflix): Bills @ Steelers
- Christmas 4:30 PM ET (Dec 25, Netflix): Bengals @ Packers
- Christmas/TNF (Dec 25, Amazon)*: Eagles @ Washington
- 2 Saturday games (Dec 27, NFLN): Flexible selections
- Sun 4:25 (Dec 28, CBS): Lions @ Ravens
- SNF (Dec 28, NBC)*: Broncos @ Texans
- MNF (Dec 29, ESPN/ABC)*: 49ers @ Buccaneers
Week 18 notable games:
- Chargers @/v. Broncos
- Packers @/v. Vikings
- Lions @/v. Bears
- Cardinals @/v. 49ers
- Rams @/v. Seahawks
- Steelers @/v. Bengals
- Washington @ Cowboys
This time I fully intend to stream an ersatz schedule release special that spends more time actually presenting the schedule than NFL Network’s excuse for a special; you can check that out here Wednesday at 8 PM ET/5 PM PT.