Football

Note: This week’s post does not include the results of the Thursday night game.

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it still says late games start at 4:15 ET instead of 4:25):

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 last year as well as the first year of flexible scheduling, because NBC hosted Christmas night games those years and all the other games were moved to Saturday (and so couldn’t be flexed), but are otherwise protected after Week 5.
• In the past, three teams could appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. I don’t know how the expansion of the Thursday Night schedule affects this, if it does. No team starts the season completely tapped out at any measure; eight teams have five primetime appearances each, but only the Broncos and Bears don’t have at least one game that can be flexed out. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 16 (December 23):

• Selected game: San Francisco @ Seattle.

Week 17 (December 30):

AFC Playoff Picture

DIVISION LEADERS	WILD CARD	WAITING IN THE WINGS (5-8)
NORTH 49-4	59-4
2 teams at 7-6
WEST 310-3	67-6
CLINCHED
EAST 210-3	7-6
CLINCHED	6-7
SOUTH 111-2
9-4

NFC Playoff Picture

DIVISION LEADERS	WILD CARD	WAITING IN THE WINGS (6-7)
EAST 48-5	58-5
2 teams at 7-6
NORTH 39-4	68-5
8-5
WEST 29-3-1	7-6
8-5	7-6
SOUTH 111-2	7-6
CLINCHED	6-6-1

• Tentative game: None (NBC will show game with guaranteed playoff implications).
• Possible games: Jets-Bills, Ravens-Bengals, Bears-Lions, Packers-Vikings, Bucs-Falcons, Texans-Colts, Dolphins-Patriots, Cowboys-Redskins, Steelers-Browns, Seahawks-Rams.
• Because of how many games this week have playoff implications, I will not give any speculation or scenarios for what games might be picked until next week.

Week 16 (December 23):

• Tentative game: San Diego @ NY Jets
• Despite both San Diego and the Jets winning, and the Bengals and Jets losing, Tim Tebow did not play against the Jags today, so there are no signs he will be starting going forward, which is the only scenario under which the tentative would be kept.
• Final prediction: San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks.

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it still says late games start at 4:15 ET instead of 4:25):

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 last year as well as the first year of flexible scheduling, because NBC hosted Christmas night games those years and all the other games were moved to Saturday (and so couldn’t be flexed), but are otherwise protected after Week 5.
• In the past, three teams could appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. I don’t know how the expansion of the Thursday Night schedule affects this, if it does. No team starts the season completely tapped out at any measure; eight teams have five primetime appearances each, but only the Broncos and Bears don’t have at least one game that can be flexed out. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 18):

• Selected game: Baltimore @ Pittsburgh.

Week 12 (November 25):

• Selected game: Green Bay @ NY Giants.

Week 13 (December 2):

• Selected game: Philadelphia @ Dallas.

Week 14 (December 9):

• Selected game: Detroit @ Green Bay.

Week 15 (December 16):

• Selected game: San Francisco @ New England.

Week 16 (December 23):

• Tentative game: San Diego @ NY Jets
• Prospects: 5-7 v. 4-8. What a horrible game, there’s no way it isn’t getting flexed… wait a second… did Rex Ryan just bench Mark Sanchez? Is that… is that the Tebow Express I hear coming into the station?!? But is it too late for even Touchdown Jesus to save the day, especially with Sanchez keeping his starting job for now?
• Likely protections: Giants-Ravens (FOX) and Bengals-Steelers (CBS).
• Other possible games: It helps Chargers-Jets’ case that a lot of the alternatives are questionable at best; Vikings-Texans keeps getting more and more lopsided, and Saints-Cowboys and Rams-Bucs are mediocre at best, with the Saints unable to get back to .500 in time. 49ers-Seahawks, on the other hand, currently sits at 8-3-1 v. 7-5 and may well end up deciding the NFC West, and certainly will have wild card implications.
• Analysis: So far ahead is 49ers-Seahawks, when Vikings-Texans is the only other unprotected game with a team above .500, that it’s really the only game worth considering, and a shoo-in under normal circumstances. If Sanchez is benched for Tebow, who leads them to a win to get to 6-7, the Seahawks lose, and the Bengals and Steelers lose as well to put the Jets only one game out of a playoff spot, and there are any rumblings of Tebow keeping the starting job on Monday, then I think there is at least a chance the Tebow factor takes over and keeps the spot for Chargers-Jets – remember, NBC’s chances to get Tebow last year were stymied at every turn. But everything has to break down perfectly, or the NFC West will take over Sunday night. (The 49ers would be maxed out on primetime appearances, but it’s extremely unlikely that Cardinals-49ers would be considered for a Week 17 flex; only way that happens is if the standings set up so that a San Fran loss puts them either behind the Seahawks or tied with the Rams, and even then the Niners might still get a wild card and the NFL would have to fear that 49ers-Cardinals would be their only Week 17 option for it to trump 49ers-Seahawks.)

Week 17 (December 30):

AFC Playoff Picture

DIVISION LEADERS	WILD CARD	WAITING IN THE WINGS (5-7)
WEST 49-3	58-4
CLINCHED
NORTH 39-3	67-5
2 teams at 7-5
EAST 29-3	7-5
3 teams at 5-7
SOUTH 111-1
8-4

NFC Playoff Picture

DIVISION LEADERS	WILD CARD	WAITING IN THE WINGS
EAST 47-5	58-4	5-6-1
2 teams at 6-6		5-7
NORTH 38-4	67-5
8-4
WEST 28-2-1	6-6
7-5	6-6
SOUTH 111-1	6-6
CLINCHED	6-6

• Tentative game: None (NBC will show game with guaranteed playoff implications).
• Possible games: Jets-Bills, Ravens-Bengals, Bears-Lions, Packers-Vikings, Bucs-Falcons, Texans-Colts, Dolphins-Patriots, Cowboys-Redskins, Cardinals-49ers, Seahawks-Rams.

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it still says late games start at 4:15 ET instead of 4:25):

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 last year as well as the first year of flexible scheduling, because NBC hosted Christmas night games those years and all the other games were moved to Saturday (and so couldn’t be flexed), but are otherwise protected after Week 5.
• In the past, three teams could appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. I don’t know how the expansion of the Thursday Night schedule affects this, if it does. No team starts the season completely tapped out at any measure; eight teams have five primetime appearances each, but only the Broncos and Bears don’t have at least one game that can be flexed out. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 18):

• Selected game: Baltimore @ Pittsburgh.

Week 12 (November 25):

• Selected game: Green Bay @ NY Giants.

Week 13 (December 2):

• Selected game: Philadelphia @ Dallas.

Week 14 (December 9):

• Selected game: Detroit @ Green Bay.

Week 15 (December 16):

• Selected game: San Francisco @ New England. If you thought last year’s early flexing-out of Colts-Patriots was weird, how about an early keeping of a game? Especially a game that isn’t even the best unprotected game of the week, with Broncos-Ravens almost certainly unprotected? But it’s hard to see any game overcoming the tentative game bias against an 8-3 v. 8-2-1 battle of division leaders; even if Broncos-Ravens had gone to 10-2 v. 9-3, and 49ers-Patriots had gone to 8-4 v. 8-3-1, it wouldn’t be terribly surprising that the NFL would stick with the tentative, as both games would still be matchups of division leaders. The real surprise is that Broncos-Ravens hasn’t been moved to the anchor spot of CBS’ doubleheader, especially given the Peyton Manning factor; it’s kind of hard to sell Steelers-Cowboys at this point by comparison, despite it being one of only two trips to Cowboys Stadium the Tiffany Network will be able to take all year, and being two teams with larger, more committed fanbases.

Week 16 (December 23):

• Tentative game: San Diego @ NY Jets
• Prospects: 4-7 v. 4-7. After the debacle Thanksgiving night, do you really think NBC wants to go back to the Jets’ circus again? Only God (through His prophet Tebow) can save this game now.
• Likely protections: Giants-Ravens (FOX) and Bengals-Steelers if anything (CBS).
• Other possible games: Should prevent this from being a whole no-flex season, but with the Vikings’ slide 49ers-Seahawks might be a better option than Vikings-Texans, which is now looking very lopsided. Bengals-Steelers is also an option if it’s unprotected, and keep an eye on Saints-Cowboys.

Week 17 (December 30):

AFC Playoff Picture

DIVISION LEADERS	WILD CARD	WAITING IN THE WINGS (4-7)
WEST 48-3	57-4
4-7
EAST 38-3	66-5
5-6
NORTH 29-2	6-5
2 tied at 6-5	5-6
SOUTH 110-1
7-4

NFC Playoff Picture

DIVISION LEADERS	WILD CARD	WAITING IN THE WINGS
EAST 47-4	57-4	5-6
2 tied at 5-6		5-6
NORTH 38-3	66-5	5-6
7-4		4-6-1
WEST 28-2-1	6-5	4-7
6-5	6-5	4-7
SOUTH 110-1
6-5

• Tentative game: None (NBC will show game with guaranteed playoff implications).
• Possible games: Jets-Bills, Ravens-Bengals, Bears-Lions, Packers-Vikings, Bucs-Falcons, Texans-Colts, Dolphins-Patriots, Cowboys-Redskins, Cardinals-49ers, Seahawks-Rams.

Week 14 (December 9):

• Tentative game: Detroit @ Green Bay
• Prospects: 4-7 v. 8-3. The Lions briefly looked to have escaped their mediocre start, but right now this game looks awfully lopsided.
• Likely protections: Bears-Vikings or Cardinals-Seahawks if anything, more likely the former (FOX) and Chargers-Steelers (CBS).
• Other possible games mentioned on last week’s Watch and their records: Saints (5-6)-Giants (7-4), Cowboys (5-6)-Bengals (6-5).
• Impact of Monday Night Football: Don’t make me laugh.
• Analysis: I wrote “the .500 teams absolutely have to win unless Bears-Vikings turns out to be unprotected”, and both lost. Saints-Giants looks like an interesting matchup, especially as the Saints have rallied after their disastrous start, but I don’t know that it’s good enough to overcome the tentative game bias. On the one hand, the Saints have been playing better than their record; on the other hand, the Giants would be maxed out, although it’s really doubtful Giants-Eagles gets flexed in Week 17.
• Final prediction: New Orleans Saints @ New York Giants, though I wouldn’t be surprised by no change.
• Actual selection: Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers (no change). (Let it be said that Bears-Vikings would have been a shoo-in had it not been protected.)

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it still says late games start at 4:15 ET instead of 4:25):

• Begins Sunday of Week 11
• In effect during Weeks 11-17
• Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
• The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
• The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
• No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
• The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
• The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
• Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
• NFL schedules all games.
• Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
• Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 last year as well as the first year of flexible scheduling, because NBC hosted Christmas night games those years and all the other games were moved to Saturday (and so couldn’t be flexed), but are otherwise protected after Week 5.
• In the past, three teams could appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. I don’t know how the expansion of the Thursday Night schedule affects this, if it does. No team starts the season completely tapped out at any measure; eight teams have five primetime appearances each, but only the Broncos and Bears don’t have at least one game that can be flexed out. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 18):

• Selected game: Baltimore @ Pittsburgh.

Week 12 (November 25):

• Selected game: Green Bay @ NY Giants.

Week 13 (December 2):

• Selected game: Philadelphia @ Dallas.

Week 14 (December 9):

• Tentative game: Detroit @ Green Bay
• Prospects: 4-6 v. 7-3. The Lions briefly looked to have escaped their mediocre start, but right now this game looks awfully lopsided.
• Likely protections: Bears-Vikings or Cardinals-Seahawks if anything, more likely the former (FOX) and Chargers-Steelers (CBS).
• Other possible games: Bears-Vikings is the only game involving two teams above .500 on Sunday. Saints-Giants and Cowboys-Bengals are options, but they might not sweep the NFL off its feet.
• Analysis: If Bears-Vikings is protected, Lions-Packers might well keep its spot by default. The Vikings-Bears half of that rivalry is this week, so even if Bears-Vikings turns out to be unprotected, a Lions win means an 8-3 v. 6-5 game probably isn’t going to overcome the tentative game bias when Lions-Packers would either be only a game worse or a game more lopsided, and I’m not sure a 7-4 v. 7-4 game could overcome the tentative game bias either. So if the Lions win on Thanksgiving, they’re probably keeping their spot, but if they lose things could get a lot more interesting, but the .500 teams absolutely have to win unless Bears-Vikings turns out to be unprotected.

Week 15 (December 16):

• Tentative game: San Francisco @ New England
• Prospects: 7-2-1 v. 7-3, a battle of division leaders; hard to see this one losing its spot against any competition.
• Likely protections: Broncos-Ravens (probably not), Colts-Texans, Steelers-Cowboys, or nothing (CBS) and Giants-Falcons (FOX).
• Other possible games: Broncos-Ravens, Colts-Texans, Packers-Bears (or if it’s protected, Giants-Falcons), a tentative much worse than this would probably be doomed. Steelers-Cowboys and Bucs-Saints are dark horses.

Week 16 (December 23):

• Tentative game: San Diego @ NY Jets
• Prospects: 4-6 v. 4-6. This game can only keep its spot if Tim Tebow is the Jets’ starting quarterback by this point.
• Likely protections: Giants-Ravens (FOX) and Bengals-Steelers if anything (CBS).
• Other possible games: Looking like the only surefire flex, but with the Vikings’ slide 49ers-Seahawks might be a better option than Vikings-Texans, which is now looking very lopsided. Bengals-Steelers is a dark horse if it’s unprotected.

Week 17 (December 30):

AFC Playoff Picture

DIVISION LEADERS	WILD CARD	WAITING IN THE WINGS (4-6)
WEST 47-3	56-4
4-6
EAST 37-3	66-4
3 teams at 4-6
NORTH 28-2	5-5
6-4
SOUTH 19-1
6-4

NFC Playoff Picture

DIVISION LEADERS	WILD CARD	WAITING IN THE WINGS (4-6)
EAST 46-4	57-3
5-5
NORTH 37-3	66-4
7-3
WEST 27-2-1	6-4
6-4	6-4
SOUTH 19-1	5-5
6-4	5-5

• Tentative game: None (NBC will show game with guaranteed playoff implications).
• Possible games: Jets-Bills, Ravens-Bengals, Bears-Lions, Packers-Vikings, Bucs-Falcons, Texans-Colts, Dolphins-Patriots, Cowboys-Redskins, Cardinals-49ers.

Week 13 (December 2):

• Tentative game: Philadelphia @ Dallas
• Prospects: Very iffy at 5-5 v. 3-7 (and the Giants starting to pull away with the division); would even the NFC East factor overcome such mediocre teams?
• Likely protections: 49ers-Rams or Vikings-Packers (FOX) and Steelers-Ravens (CBS).
• Other possible games mentioned on last week’s Watch and their records: Vikings (6-4)-Packers (7-3), Seahawks (6-4)-Bears (7-2), Bucs (6-4)-Broncos (7-3), Pats (7-3)-Dolphins (4-6), Colts (6-4)-Lions (4-6).
• Impact of Monday Night Football: Under normal circumstances, the Bears would be playing to give Seahawks-Bears a leg up over Vikings-Packers and Bucs-Broncos, giving it a better pair of records at the expense of being a little lopsided, something it needs given it’s the least TV-friendly of the three. These aren’t normal circumstances.
• Analysis: Two years ago, against all logic, the NFL kept a tentative with a 3-8 Cowboys team, prompting this rant about how the tentative game bias can be so extreme as to render flex scheduling nearly worthless. With a better Dallas team this year that’s only a game out of the wild card, I suggested that, even with an Eagle loss to make it semi-lopsided and mediocre at best at 5-5 v. 3-7, a Dallas win would pretty much guarantee this game keeps its spot; it would hardly be the worst tentative the NFL has kept. Dallas then had one more loss than Philly has now and the game is less lopsided, while the Cowboys are still in the thick of the playoff race. But the best alternative available then was Chiefs-Chargers at 7-4 v. 6-5, and the collection of 7-3 v. 6-4 games are mighty tempting. If this tentative were anything else, I would bet on Vikings-Packers or Bucs-Broncos. As it stands?
• Final prediction: Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys (no change). (Does the lack of an announcement suggest that Seahawks-Bears has a shot with a Bears win?)