Author and Thinker
…this is the only post you get from me today.
Because of all my college football stuff, I’ve sort of been growing distant from the NFL Lineal Title (the Colts’ long reign hasn’t helped). During the before-the-bowls interregnum, I’ve been neglecting to update it at all. That changes now. However, the college lineal titles aren’t updated until after the National Championship.
Because a lot of sites I visit are putting up predictions for the new year, so am I, and I’ll check back in at year’s end to see how I did:
And that just left me incredibly drained and depressed. I think it’s better if I don’t try to predict what happens, and just try and enjoy the ride. You should try it some time.
Sugar Bowl: #3 Texas v. #2 Florida
The biggest test of which conference, the Big 12 or SEC, was truly better over the course of the season provided vindication for a number of different groups, and left people wondering what might have been had the quarterfinals gone just a bit differently.
Truth be told, the Sugar Bowl was not much of a fight. That was the case pretty much from the opening bell. Two Chris Rainey runs put the Gators in Texas territory, and a Tebow throw to Riley Cooper (one of only two completed passes all day) made up for a holding penalty and set up a Rainey draw for the first down, setting up a quick field goal. After an encroachment penalty against the Gators, Cody Johnson broke open a long run to get the Longhorns in Gator territory, but they went three-and-out from there and Jeffery Demps left the defense in his wake on a 74-yard touchdown run. The next Florida drive, following a three-and-out, started with good field position right behind midfield and ended with the second Tebow completion, to Tate Casey for a 37-yard touchdown, but the extra point was shanked. Tebow couldn’t complete a pass the rest of the day, and the former Heisman winner was neutered on the ground, rushing 11 times but for a net loss of 3 yards (though that was probably a result of taking knees at the end of the game). This game would be won with the key ingredients of any football championship: running and defense. In particular, Rainey would be named the game’s MVP after running 14 times for 150 yards, and Percy Harvin and Demps also ran for over 100 yards each.
Texas would tack on a field goal before the end of the quarter, but Rainey started the second with a 53-yard touchdown run – another reason he would be named MVP, coupled with his second later in the game. Colt McCoy led his team methodically down the field again, relying mostly on himself, both throwing (5 for 6) and running (27 yards on 3 carries), ending with his one touchdown completion, to Jordan Shipley. But it would be the last time Texas scored. Florida tacked on another field goal, and not only did Texas go three-and-out twice before the half, they got the ball a third time before the half, pinned on their own 6, and proceeded to get McCoy sacked in the end zone, bringing the score to an even 28 to Texas’ 10. Florida managed to get the ball back so close they went for a field goal before the half, but the 51-yard attempt was just too long for Jonathan Phillips to make.
Not that it really mattered, because the Gators blew the game open in the second half. Texas still didn’t pick up a first down until their second drive of the half, by which point Florida had already scored again, thanks to a 58-yard run by Harvin on their first play from scrimmage that set the Gators up on the 22. The Longhorns would get just close enough to be in “no-man’s-land”, too close to punt but too far out to kick a field goal, and wound up unsuccessfully going for it on fourth and 2. Texas in fact seemed to have the momentum for a chunk of the third quarter, forcing a three-and-out before Vondrell McGee put them in field goal territory, but the 42 yard attempt sailed left. A McCoy fumble to start the fourth quarter, followed by three quick runs by Rainey, Harvin, and Kestahn Moore into the end zone, snuffed out that flame of hope and gave Florida a commanding 42-10 lead. Rainey’s second touchdown would come with 2:40 left in the game, just to drive one more nail in the Longhorns’ coffin, and bringing vindication to those who felt Oklahoma should have been in the Big 12 title game.
Final score: Texas 10, Florida 49
Final Round matchups:
Fiesta Bowl: #5 Penn State v. #3 Texas
Penn State’s rock-hard defense (that has proven to be a little less than rock-hard in this tournament) against Colt McCoy and the astounding Texas offense. The Nittany Lions will need to play like Linebacker U. if they want to capture the third-place title.
Golden Bowl II: #9 USC v. #2 Florida
The National Championship game pits two teams that know the key to winning a championship is a fantastic defense. Both also sport amazing playmakers on offense, with USC keyed by Mark Sanchez and Joe McKnight and Florida led by Tim Tebow and Percy Harvin. Florida has long been considered better tested by their schedule, but beyond Alabama, Georgia, and Ole Miss they didn’t play much of anybody (at least if you believe some Big 12 partisans), while USC had to face a real team in the first round and had to dispatch the #1 seed in the tournament on the road in the second. And the way Tebow has been mostly neutered, it’s not out of the question to think USC could do it again, and shut down the rest of the Florida offense in the process… then again, Florida’s defense has actually been as good as advertised, unlike Penn State’s…
Fiesta Bowl coming next weekend. The Golden Bowl will be played over Martin Luther King weekend.
Orange Bowl: Texas Tech v. Cincinnati
A close, hard-fought contest proved once and for all that Cincinnati deserved every bit of the seeding they got in the Golden Bowl Tournament – and left the rest of the actual tournament with a high bar to follow.
The tone was set early when Graham Harrell’s third pass attempt was intercepted, and returned to the 18, setting up an easy touchdown pass to Dominick Goodman. Unfazed, Harrell led the Red Raiders right down the field, with some help from a couple of throws to Michael Crabtree, including one that Crabtree managed to take into the endzone. After a three-and-out and a Red Raider first down that went nowhere, the Bearcats – pinned inside their own 20 by a holding penalty – marched down the field to the 6 heading into the second quarter before the Raider defense stuffed everything they tried and held them to a field goal. The Red Raiders struck back with their own drive, but faced with fourth-and-1 on the 30, decided to kick a field goal of their own – and watched it sail wide right.
The Bearcats started another good drive before a second-down sack of Tony Pike put them at third-and-17 from the 36. The next play was an incompletion, and the Bearcats were forced to punt – and proceeded to force a three-and-out, after which they picked up where they left off, culminating with Pike-to-Goodman for another touchdown, putting the Bearcats up by ten. Harrell led the Red Raiders on another valiant drive, but on second-and-goal from the five, no timeouts, and twenty-one seconds left, Harrell drops back to pass instead of handing the ball off – and overthrows Shannon Woods, making it third-and-goal with fifteen seconds left. Enough time not to be an ideal circumstance to bring out the field goal unit on any but fourth down, but not enough to comfortably run another play and still get a field goal off (at least if the Raiders had run the ball on second down Harrell could have worked the clock down to three-to-five seconds before spiking the ball). Still, it’s somewhat bewildering Mike Leach doesn’t at least call for another pass and instead brings out the field goal unit anyway, and perhaps more bewildering when the resulting chip shot bangs off the upright. Cincinnati enters the half with all the momentum and a full ten-point lead, and the analysts wonder if the Red Raiders can get more than a fluke stop.
Baron Batch runs off a 63-yard run before finally getting stopped on the 7 on the second play from scrimmage in the second half, setting up a quick Red Raider touchdown, but the Raider defense still can’t stop the Bearcat offense as Pike goes 4-for-5 on the ensuing drive. The incompletion, an overthrown touchdown attempt, helps hold Cincinnati to a 39-yard field goal, keeping the game within a score, and the Raider offense catches a little bit of fire of its own. While the Bearcats are operating slowly and methodically, the Red Raiders score their points with big plays like a 32-yard completion from Harrell to Eric Morris, and a throw to Tramain Swindall that makes Swindall look like a Heisman candidate before he finally dives into the endzone.
After another Cincinnati touchdown, though, the Bearcat defense forces a three-and-out and the Bearcats prove just as unstoppable with yet another touchdown drive that spans the quarter break. Harrell keeps the Raiders in the game with a touchdown drive of his own, but Jacob Ramsey breaks off a 46-yard run that sets up a field goal. The Red Raiders get the ball back with 6:32 left, but burn a lot of clock en route to the end zone and can’t complete the two-point conversion, so Cincinnati still has a 36-34 lead. Astoundingly (even though there’s still 2:43 remaining), considering how little the Raider defense has been able to stop the Bearcats all day, Leach does not call for an onside kick on the ensuing kickoff – but the Raider defense vindicates his confidence by finally forcing a three-and-out. But Harrell’s comeback attempt is a disaster: sacked on first down, an 11-yard completion with 17 to go on second, and two incompletions. Cincinnati sneaks out of Miami with the victory, but Graham Harrell is named the game’s MVP for keeping the Red Raiders in the game when Cincinnati ran all up and down on the Raider defense.
Final score: Texas Tech 34, Cincinnati 36
Cotton Bowl: Oklahoma v. Alabama
Stewing from two weeks of pundits suggesting they might be soft or not mentally prepared, the Sooners – once having visions of championships dancing in their heads – vow to make the most of their consolation prize and show people why they had been the #1 seed. After a three-and-out and an Alabama missed field goal, Sam Bradford methodically leads the Sooners down the field and into the end zone. Glen Coffee does most of the work on the ensuing Alabama drive, but it gets stopped on the 6 and forces another field goal, made this time. On Alabama’s next drive early in the second, Coffee takes it into the end zone himself and gives the Tide what would be their only lead of the game. Oklahoma’s next drive is a three-and-out, but the defense stops Alabama in their own territory and a 65-yard touchdown run gives the Sooners the lead for good.
That long touchdown is arguably the turning point of the game. Alabama doesn’t get a first down for the rest of the half and Oklahoma’s next drive, already starting in Alabama territory, starts with two Chris Brown runs before Jermaine Gresham catches a Bradford pass and outruns the defense for a 36-yard touchdown. Oklahoma enters the half with a 21-10 lead, but Alabama methodically makes its way down the field to cut that lead to four to start the second half, this time with John Parker Wilson taking a more central role. Oklahoma brushes it off, though, when Brown breaks open another touchdown run of more than 60 yards. Alabama makes another effort on their next drive, but get stopped near midfield. Oklahoma, though, doesn’t do much better on their next drive and Alabama manages to take the punt almost to where it was punted from to start the fourth quarter.
Wilson hits Nick Walker for a 36-yard gain to set up a throw to Coffee for the touchdown (a risky touchdown throw on fourth-and-1 from the 8), picking up the two-point conversion to get within a field goal. But once again, Oklahoma brushes it off with another big play, this time a long run on the second play from scrimmage that just barely gets tackled a yard short of the end zone. After the eventual TD, Alabama has Coffee and Mark Ingram (and occasionally Roy Upchurch) trade carries until they get inside the Sooner 40 with six minutes left, after which they rely more on Wilson’s arm. Although he gets an 18-yard first down completion on his first try, the next three plays are a short completion, an incompletion, and a sack, holding the Tide to a field goal with a little less than five minutes to play. Alabama opts to kick it away and Oklahoma makes them pay, taking the kickoff to their own 31, having Bradford make a 20-yard completion to the Tide 33, and breaking open yet another touchdown run from there. The demoralized Tide get nowhere on the ensuing drive, but the defense do manage to get enough of a stop to force the Sooners to kick a field goal on fourth down. There’s nowhere near enough time to make up a 17-point deficit, though.
Final score: Oklahoma 45, Alabama 28
USC is in the Golden Bowl. Who will join them, Texas or Florida? Tune in tomorrow and find out!
As there’s only one bowl after today that’s affected by the Golden Bowl Tournament as listed here, I’m clearing them all out right now. (And don’t you wish the Chick-fil-A Bowl was the one told of here instead of the one we got?) For whatever reason it appears SportsLine isn’t doing expected weather conditions anymore.
Outback Bowl: Ole Miss 28, Michigan State 21
Cordera Eason (43-yard TD run) and Ashlee Palmer (game-ending INT) are Mississippi state heroes.
Capitol One Bowl: Ohio State 21, Georgia 27
Big Ten haters are going to have a field day with this one.
Gator Bowl: Nebraska 30, Georgia Tech 37
The Huskers stayed in it much better than most people expected, and still had a shot to win at the end, making it into the red zone on their last possession.
Liberty Bowl: LSU 34, East Carolina 20
LSU gets more of a challenge here than they did in the real-life Chick-fil-A Bowl.
More bowls still to come!
Bowls affected by the Golden Bowl Playoffs as listed here only. If I may be allowed to rant for a bit, while I was able to calculate these games I’m astounded by the idea that people are ONLY interested in weather of the future. I was able to find the weather from SportsLine’s (aka CBS Sports) previews, but as SportsLine doesn’t link to its previews I only found out about it by a fluke, and as it’s on a PREVIEW and not on the box score I don’t know exactly how much precipitation there was or if there was any, only what the chance of any was before the game. It’s not like the weather is an important aspect of understanding the game; if we need to know it before the game, why not after? I mean, if it’s good enough for Whatifsports, why not real sports sites? And are we really more able to tell whether there will be rain than how much there will be, or if that’s not the case, are we really more interested? Anyway, onwards and upwards, with wild guesses taken on the rain:
EagleBank Bowl: Miami (FL) 27, Navy 23
Navy managed to keep a closer game of it than in the real game against an arguably better opponent, but couldn’t get the job done in the end.
New Mexico Bowl: BYU 62, Fresno State 28
The Bulldogs lost the real game to a 6-6 Mountain West team. Imagine them facing an opponent that was actually ranked.
Las Vegas Bowl: Utah 58, Arizona 20
BYU underestimated the Wildcats in the real game. Utah’s too good to make that mistake.
Motor City Bowl: Central Michigan 6, Wisconsin 42
Um… should we be glad the Golden Bowl isn’t real and we didn’t actually get these atrocious bowl matchups?
Emerald Bowl: California 42, Clemson 17
It’s the Jahvid Best show! And I didn’t even set Cal as a home team!
Independence Bowl: Kentucky 0, Wake Forest 16
Now here, we didn’t get a game between two sucky minor conference teams. Too bad it’s a freakin’ shutout!
Papajohns.com Bowl: Rutgers 64, Florida Atlantic 38
You notice a lot of these bowls look like early-season “guarantee” games. Though to be fair, Rutgers didn’t exactly set the world on fire this year, and Florida Atlantic won its “real-life” bowl. And you notice the Owls put up a lot of points on the board on their own part.
Texas Bowl: NC State 59, Rice 49
Now here’s a game that got improved by the Golden Bowl: Rice gets a BCS opponent! That alone makes it worth watching! And the game was more competitive than the real thing, as Chase Clement kept the Owls in it almost to the end.
Chick-fil-A Bowl: South Carolina 17, Virginia Tech 24
The team that actually was in the Golden Bowl tournament sneaks out of the Georgia Dome with a victory, despite a valiant comeback attempt by Steve Spurrier’s Gamecocks.
In the new year I bring the rest of the minor bowls, as well as the non-semifinal BCS bowls. Watch the Rose Bowl knowing it’s more than a meaningless what-if game, but actually a national semifinal in the Golden Bowl tournament, and I’ll have the other semifinal on Friday.
I was right. The NFL was freaking out over having the slightest chance of Dolphins-Jets being made mostly (not even entirely) irrelevant by game time.
The parade of New York columnists complaining about moving a cold-weather game to the nighttime in reference to Panthers-Giants.
That may have also killed Giants-Vikings (although that’s in a dome) and even Cowboys-Eagles if arcane rules didn’t do so.
#9 USC v. #1 Oklahoma
The game turned out to be surprisingly boring… aside from the team that was winning.
It didn’t look to be that way at first. Mark Sanchez’s second pass attempt was picked off – but the Trojan defense forced its second straight three-and-out. The next time the Trojans got the ball, Joe McKnight broke off a 40-yard touchdown run. Then Oklahoma coughed up the ball on a fumble and USC went on another 53-yard drive for another touchdown, and the Sooner crowd was silent the rest of the way. Sanchez kept the scoring going with a long pass to Patrick Turner that he managed to take in for a score early in the second. Oklahoma went into the half without having tallied a single first down and down 28-0.
The Sooners finally picked up a first down midway through the third… only to see their next punt be taken to the house. The Sooners also got on the board with a 57-yard rushing touchdown on the first play from scrimmage after the ensuing kickoff, but by that point they were already down 35-7 and no one thought any sort of miracle comeback was anything near possible – a near 5-minute touchdown scoring drive taking up the rest of the third quarter, with the touchdown itself coming in the fourth, made sure of that. The stands were sparse for much of the second half and virtually empty for most of the fourth, as college football pundits and Sooner fans alike found themselves scratching their heads. Yes, Pete Carroll had undoubtedly motivated his squad with the indignity of having to play in the freezing snow of Salt Lake City in the first round when they all knew they had deserved a first-round home game. Most of the questions involved the Sooners: What had happened that left them vulnerable to freaking Troy, and then left them as little more than the butt for another set of Trojans to whoop, in a replay of the 2004 Orange Bowl? And how had Joe McKnight gone completely ignored in the Heisman conversation this season?
Final score: USC 55, Oklahoma 14
#7 Texas Tech v. #2 Florida
From the opening bell, it was clear this was not going to be Texas Tech’s day. That became apparent when Jeffery Demps broke open a 51-yard run on the first play from scrimmage. Florida went on to score later in the drive, then picked up a field goal on the next one. The Red Raiders proceeded to pick up their first first down, but then Graham Harrell threw one of his two picks and that resulted in a touchdown-scoring drive. Texas Tech finally picked up a touchdown on a drive that spanned into the second quarter, but the extra point was blocked, and a good kickoff return allowed Florida to drive to another field goal.
The Red Raiders defense finally stopped Florida from scoring with a three-and-out, only for Harrell to throw INT #2, this time returned all 48 yards for the touchdown by Joe Haden. Florida went into the half up 30-6 and the Red Raiders never scored again. Tim Tebow didn’t look like a running quarterback – he ran 17 times for only 11 yards – but Demps and Chris Rainey picked up the slack, and while Tebow went only 5-8 passing, it was for 53 yards.
Final score: Texas Tech 6, Florida 40 (I’m assuming Florida keeps running with less than 2 minutes to play, picks up the first down, doesn’t need to kick a field goal, and doesn’t try to punch it in with goal to go)
#6 Cincinnati v. #3 Texas
In by far the greatest game of the Golden Bowl tournament so far, Cincinnati proved they deserved their seed that so many called unusually high. So impressive were they that Dominick Goodman, who caught 7 passes for 153 yards, was considered the player of the game.
Why was that impressive, besides that it was a wide receiver? Read on.
An early Texas drive that looked like the landslide many pundits had predicted was cut short when Colt McCoy, after driving his team to the Bearcat 30, threw the ball into the hands of Brandon Underwood. Tony Pike then went 4-for-4, every throw for a first down, culminating with Goodman making a running catch and winning a footrace for the endzone, a 30-yard play that served as a notice to the Longhorns. Cincinnati 7: Texas 0.
Although Texas went three-and-out, anyone who dismissed that drive as a fluke probably seemed vindicated when Pike threw an interception of his own, and after Texas went three-and-out again, promptly threw another interception on his very next play, this one taken back to the end zone by Earl Thomas for the game-tying score. After that, the Bearcats kept the ball on the ground, throwing the ball only three times on the ensuing drive on the way to a field goal to retake the lead. The Longhorns promptly struck back, as McCoy drove them 46 yards before Chris Ogbonnaya picked up a 24-yard touchdown run on a draw. Cincinnati doesn’t pick up a first down for the rest of the half, and the Longhorns add a field goal of their own before the half. The pundits’ halftime analysis: the Longhorns started slow, but they will now play much more like they played in the second quarter and will put the game away.
Not so fast.
Anyone thinking the Bearcats would go down that easy were shut up when John Goebel ticked off a 48-yard run all the way to the 2, setting up a subsequent touchdown run to re-tie the game. Cincinnati’s next possession ended in a three-and-out and the ensuing punt gave the Longhorns good enough field position to re-take the lead, but Pike managed to lead the Bearcats to the endzone himself on the very next drive. The Bearcats were not going away, and they would stay in it all the way to the end.
After forcing Texas to punt, the Bearcats got the ball back on their own 17 for their first drive of the fourth quarter, and after two plays, picked up a first down when the Longhorns were flagged for encroachment – only to be set further back by a holding flag the next play. Thanks mostly to a second-down pass to Goodman, the Bearcats still picked up the first down, then crossed midfield on a 13-yard pass to Ben Guidugli. Another second-down pass picked up another first down before the Bearcats stalled, only gaining two yards on each of the first two downs before Isaiah Pead, on one of only two rushes of the day (both for losses), got nailed for a five-yard loss and forced a punt. On the clock, the quarter was already half over, and the score remained 24-24.
McCoy proceeded to break the hearts of the Bearcat faithful by running for 17 yards on second down to the Longhorn 35, then handed it off to Cody Johnson who broke open for a 64-yard run, just barely being stopped short of the end zone. After two incomplete passes and a run got stopped, Mack Brown decided to roll the dice by going for it on fourth down. Had it failed, it could have ended up endlessly questioned – but it worked, and the Longhorns retook the lead. But before the Bearcat faithful could beat themselves up for very long, Pike threw a screen to Goodman, who proceeded to make a Heisman-like dash for 65 yards down to the 12, and Jacob Ramsey punched it in the rest of the distance. Cincinnati 31, Texas 31, 4:28 to play. Texas returns the kickoff to their own 30. Play sequence: Incomplete, 1-yard pass, incomplete, punt. Cincinnati gets the ball back on their own 38, 3:33 to play, chance to win the game and shock the nation by shutting the Big 12 out of the semifinals.
First play: Interception.
After an illegal motion flag against Texas, Ogbonnaya promptly breaks open a 46-yard run down to the 10. Two Foswhitt Whitaker runs later, McCoy hits Quan Cosby in the endzone. Cincinnati 31, Texas 38, 1:47 to play, Tony Pike – after a fantastic game – needing to redeem himself and not become the scapegoat.
Cincinnati gets the ball back on the 23. First play very familiar: Pike to Goodman, out of bounds, gain of 8, second down Ramsey gets a four-yard run for the first down. Bearcats call timeout, 1:32 remaining. Goebel runs east-and-west and manages to pick up a yard before going out of bounds. Pike throws… batted down. Pike completes it this time to Marcus Barnett, but he gets nailed immediately… can’t go out of bounds. Clock stops for the measurement and first down, but they have to get back to the line. Clock ticks down to 55 seconds. They run a draw to Ramsey… ends up out of bounds for another 1-yard gain. 51 seconds. Pike throws to the sideline to Charley Howard. Out of bounds, six-yard gain, 45 seconds left, they’re in Longhorn territory now. Third and 3. Pike throws it downfield to Barnett… just out of his reach. Fourth down, three to go. 38 seconds. This time the first down is most important. Pike pitches it right into the hands of Goebel.
Two yards.
Texas avoids an unmitigated disaster for the Big 12 and becomes the only Big 12 team still playing for a national championship. Cincinnati will have to settle for a trip to the Orange Bowl at least a week too early. Tony Pike and Brian Kelly will have that interception and final drive replaying in their nightmares for years. Bearcats fans are merely left to shake their heads and wonder what might have been. Dominick Goodman, though, gains a new level of respect around the country from people who might not have been paying attention to the Big East.
Final score: Cincinnati 31, Texas 38
#5 Penn State v. #4 Alabama
No sooner did the Cincinnati Bearcats get done scaring the Texas Longhorns than two of college football’s most storied teams managed to top it, in a game that proved to be surprisingly high-scoring.
Daryll Clark threw for three first downs on Penn State’s second drive of the game, and with the ball on the 25, Evan Royster – on his way to an amazing two-hundred-yard day – picked up a fourth on a 16-yard run, then proceeded to pound ahead another eight for the touchdown, the first sign that Alabama’s defense wasn’t in proper working order. Though Alabama had picked up the first first down of the game, the first sign that Penn State’s defense wasn’t working either might have been dismissed as a fluke: Glen Coffee pounding through it for 51 yards on Alabama’s second play from scrimmage on the ensuing drive, only getting stopped at the three, setting up Roy Upchurch for the equalizer.
After three more runs by Royster put the Nittany Lions in Alabama territory, the Tide defense seemed to bear down and get the stop, helped in no small part by a delay of game penalty, and a long punt return to the Lion 29 set up an 18-yard run by Mark Ingram and an 11-yard touchdown by Coffee, and Alabama took the lead heading into the second quarter.
Both defenses traded stops, though both teams penetrated their opponent’s territory, but then the Nittany Lions suggested that the Tide defense still wasn’t quite working the way it should have. Clark was the star of this drive, with three decent-sized completions early before, on 2nd and 11 from the 21, handing the ball off to Royster on a draw and setting up the Lions on the 2. Derrick Williams pounded it in from there to re-tie the game. Alabama struck back, with the help of another big run by Coffee and a slightly shorter one from Upchurch. The drive stalled after a false-start flag, but Kevin Kelly still made a 47-yard field goal – his only attempt of the game – to retake the lead. Penn State went three-and-out, a Tide first down was rendered moot by holding on the next play, and Penn State got the ball back with 17 seconds left and couldn’t do anything before the half. The pundits’ consensus: If the Tide’s defense could get more consistent they can put away the Nittany Lions during the second half and turn what’s been a close game so far into a laugher, because the Lions can’t stop Glen Coffee.
But the Tide’s defense doesn’t get more consistent. Instead the Nittany Lions, namely Royster, have a fantastic third quarter. After a three-and-out, they get help from the special teams with a punt return into Tide territory, and Royster tags on a 30-yard touchdown run. Penn State’s next drive is a three-and-out but the punt pins the Tide inside the 20, but Upchurch renders that irrelevant by leaving the defense in his wake for an 87-yard touchdown run – the only Alabama drive of the quarter that isn’t a three-and-out. Royster immediately takes the challenge and takes it 79 yards for a touchdown of his own on Penn State’s first play from scrimmage. The next time Penn State gets the ball, Clark takes over and leads the team on a five-minute drive that only gets stopped on fourth and goal from the 4. Penn State 31, Alabama 24.
The Tide’s defense buckles down in the fourth quarter, as both teams trade three-and-outs, and although Penn State does eventually pick up a first down, the defense sets up the Tide with what would seem to be a perfect opportunity to tie the game when Tyrone King picks off Clark and takes it to the 11. But the Nittany Lion defense is ready: after Coffee picks up six yards on a draw, they hold Upchurch to only one. On third and 3 from the 4, John Parker Wilson attempts to pass but finds no one open and ends up scrambling for a yard. Now it’s fourth and 2 from the 3, and Alabama needs the touchdown. Nick Saban calls a draw play to Coffee.
Stuffed after a yard.
One of the most memorable stops in the history of Penn State’s storied defense – if it holds. Penn State gets the ball back with 2:52 to play but on their own 2 – seemingly, with a lot of field to cover, a good chance to burn the remaining clock. A pitch to Stephfon Green gets two, then Clark – in a call that threatens to be questioned forever – throws an incompletion. Stopping the clock and gaining nothing. Finally Joe Paterno and Clark realize this situation calls for giving it to Royster (already at 200 yards) early and often, but on third and eight, a draw play only picks up one yard.
Alabama gets another chance, 1:38 to play with, and a full complement of timeouts – and the ball on the Penn State 30. The first call may seem somewhat questionable – running the ball, not with Coffee or Upchurch, but with Mark Ingram, and straight ahead instead of towards the sideline – getting only a yard and burning a timeout. Coffee gets the ball on second down and gets out of bounds after five yards. Another questionable run call, this time to Demetrius Goode, gets stuffed at the line, but this time Alabama converts on fourth down when Wilson finds Julio Jones, who strides out of bounds at the 13 with 1:02 to play. It’s the first first down Alabama has gotten since their first play of the quarter. Nittany Lions fans fear the worst – what if Saban elects to go for two?
The Lion defense quickly buckles down, and a forward flip to Marquis Maze gets nailed instantly for a two-yard loss, burning another timeout. 57 seconds left. Wilson tosses it again, this time to Travis McCall, who gets stopped at the line of scrimmage and doesn’t get out of bounds. Clock continues to run… 50… 49… 48… 47… Finally, at 35 seconds, the Tide takes the third-down snap. Wilson once again aims for McCall, but this time overthrows him. Clock stops with 31 seconds left. No more dilly-dallying: the Tide have to make fourth and 12.
Wilson takes the snap and steps back. Looks for an open receiver, in the end zone or even just short of it as long as it’s past the three-yard line or near enough. Looking… looking… he breaks out of the pocket and attempts to elude the rush. Looking… looking…
And steps out of bounds right at the line of scrimmage.
Penn State escapes with the victory despite a couple of close scares. Evan Royster is the breakout star, but despite allowing 24 points, mostly by not being able to stop Glen Coffee for the first half, the defense is the star of the game in a contest Nittany Lions fans will tell their children and grandchildren about, especially if Penn State can go on to win the championship. Nick Saban is questioned for most of the post-game press conference about some questionable calls, especially on the final drive, but truth be told, he was out of tricks after nothing else he had tried had gotten past Joe Paterno’s defense for the second half.
Final score: Penn State 31, Alabama 24
Semifinal Matchups:
Rose Bowl: #9 USC v. #5 Penn State
Okay, so Alabama-Penn State wasn’t the defensive battle I advertised, but USC-Penn State could be. But with Joe McKnight playing at a Heisman-caliber level, Penn State might have trouble with him for more than a half. Because this is the real Rose Bowl, I won’t be simulating it.
Sugar Bowl: #3 Texas v. #2 Florida
Some may call this the real national championship game. There are some similarities with the real real national championship game. This one might be a battle of the last two Heisman winners, and it pits two able offenses against each other, but while the Big 12 team’s is most impressive, Florida boasts a fantastic defense, and we’ll see if Tim Tebow can make the difference in this one. This simulation will be announced after the new year.
Non-semifinal BCS bowls:
Cotton Bowl: Oklahoma v. Alabama
Orange Bowl: Texas Tech v. Cincinnati
I lost the first version of this post. This is a quick update. Will update this post as the day progresses. Maybe.
-Colts and Ravens improved their standing, but a Colts loss next week could still bring them down to a tiebreaker. Tiebreak checks later. Dolphins and Pats both win, Jets playing Seahawks.
-Chargers took care of their half. Can the Bills beat the Broncos?
-Titans lock up the 1 seed, Steelers the 2.
-Falcons-Vikings, Eagles-Redskins on now. Bucs and Cowboys both lost, so the Redskins aren’t out yet.
-If an NFC game can be selected, don’t expect an announcement on FNIA like last year.
Broncos leading Bills, but barely. Seahawks up by a touchdown over Jets. Redskins up on Vikings but Falcons up on Vikings, which would eliminate the ‘Skins.
AFC East Tiebreakers: If Jets beat Miami next week they hold tiebreaker over Pats who hold tiebreak over Dolphins, assuming all three are tied with each other (a possibility with the Jets losing), otherwise all three are 1-1 against each of the other two. If the Dolphins and Pats win next week the division records will all be 4-2, if the Jets win they will hold the division tiebreaker, if the Pats lose and the Dolphins win the Pats lose the division tiebreaker.
Right now the following scenarios are possible: If the Jets lose today:
-Jets win, Patriots lose. Three-way tie goes to Jets for division. Pats and Dolphins go to common games. More on that later.
-Jets win, Patriots win. Pats win division outright. Jets win tiebreak over Dolphins.
-Dolphins win, Patriots win. Pats and Dolphins go to common games for division. Jets to 7 losses and probably out of playoffs.
-Dolphins win, Patriots lose. Dolphins win division outright. Pats first choice of NFC East for wild card spot with six losses. Jets to 7 losses and probably out of playoffs.
The Seahawks appear to be wrapping up the game.
Pats-Dolphins common games: Pats 7-1, Dolphins 7-1 outside division. Dolphins would hold conference tiebreaker.
If Colts lose next week, Ravens, Dolphins, Pats win, Colts-Ravens-Pats three-way, one team must be eliminated to determine wild card. Indy beat both teams so they win the head-to-head sweep and are in the playoffs. No Titans-Colts next week on SNF. Ravens would hold the conference games tiebreak over Patriots, but are still vulnerable to a loss next week.
Seattle beats the Jets. Buffalo leading Denver by a touchdown. Washington leading by a touchdown but Atlanta running away with it over the Vikings.
If Pats lose next week Dolphins-Jets is for division. If current score holds Chargers-Broncos will also be for division. If NFC game can’t be selected it will be one of those two. My pick is Dolphins-Jets, because of the Favre factor and because they’re better teams.
Vikings are in big trouble unless the Packers win Monday night. Bucs can’t win division but the dream is still alive for the Falcons to continue the last-one-year-first-the-next trend. Assuming the Falcons go on to win, the Redskins are out and they will have been in the process of eliminating the Eagles as well, and a Packers win would eliminate the Bears entirely.
Falcons may be clinching themselves a playoff spot, in all practicality. The schedule breaks down such that I think they are cinching up the common games tiebreaker over the Bucs. Even if Dallas wins next week, which would mean they would likely have a conference games tiebreaker, the Falcons would be in by virtue of that tiebreaker – assuming the Bears lose.
If current scores hold, not even Cowboys-Eagles may look as attractive as NBC would like, if the Eagles are already out of the playoffs, and if the Bears lose I think that would lock up a playoff spot for the Cowboys, a risk NBC can’t take if they have to make their pick before MNF. Giants-Vikings has the same pitfall, and if current scores hold the Vikings will have lost and won’t have a bye to play for.
Buffalo knocks off Denver, but it’s the other two games I’m watching for SNF/NFC purposes.
Atlanta knocks off Minnesota. That essentially locks up a playoff spot for them and puts the Bucs in big trouble, and it eliminates the Redskins. The Eagles MIGHT still be alive for a playoff spot, as they would still be only a half game behind the Cowboys and Bucs. Beat the Boys and hope for a Bucs loss, and the Eagles are in the playoffs.
Philly making one last push – if they win this it would actually be worse for Cowboys-Eagles as the Eagles would be playing for nothing. They fail. But if the Bears win two straight it could render Cowboys-Eagles irrelevant by the end of the day. Two Bears wins put them at 10-6, and the best the Eagles could hope for is 9-6-1. We could see a Bears-Falcons-Cowboys three-way tie, though, and Cowboys would win the conference tiebreaker for the first spot.
Honestly, the Favre factor means Dolphins-Jets could be selected even if the NFL can select an NFC game. Especially if the Bears win on Monday Night and create the possibility that the Eagles won’t have anything to play for by Sunday night. With six losses, the Jets will still have something to play for even if the Patriots win next week. The Ravens could lose, and the Jets would have the conference games tiebreaker. Or the Ravens could win, and the Jets really would have nothing to play for. Giants-Vikings is probably out with the Vikings having no chance to steal the 2 seed, meaning the Giants will have nothing to play for no matter what happens tonight, and the Vikings will have nothing to play for if the Packers win Monday night.
Final prediction: Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets, but I would be far from surprised to see Cowboys-Eagles selected.
Actual selection: Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers. Huh? Either NBC and the NFL really don’t want to put the Dolphins on or they’re really scared about the game being rendered irrelevant for at least one team by game time. If the latter, we still don’t know if NBC could have selected an NFC game.