Football

Who SHOULD be going to which bowls?

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Based on my College Football Rankings, which I will put up… fairly soon. I hope. The Golden Bowl Selection Show is being delayed to 6 PM PT, maybe even until tomorrow, because my computer abruptly aborted, Excel wasn’t autorecovering the file I was doing my planning on for some reason, and that means I need to go all the way home to transfer back the post-championship-weekend RPI. I’ve selected one at large, have some idea of at least two others, and pretty much know who my top two and bottom three teams will be, if not in what order.

Teams in parenthesis reflect the probability that Boise State won’t be selected by the BCS; asterisks indicate at-large selections. Because of the “winning records before .500” rule, incidentally, Notre Dame will have to settle for one of the –AL spots, probably the Motor City if Boise State doesn’t go to the BCS. All times Eastern.

BOWL  Teams  My Picks  DATE/TIME/CHANNEL 
EagleBank Bowl  ACC   Maryland Dec. 20, 11 a.m. 
Navy  Navy ESPN 
New Mexico  Mountain West   Colorado State Dec. 20, 2:30 p.m. 
WAC   Nevada (Fresno State) ESPN 
St. Petersburg  Big East (#6?)  South Florida Dec. 20, 4:30 p.m. 
Conference USA   Southern Miss ESPN2 
Pioneer Las Vegas  Mountain West TCU Dec. 20, 8 p.m. 
Pac-10 (/5)  California or Oregon State ESPN 
R+L Carriers New Orleans  C-USA (Southern Miss rates higher but is 6-6) Rice Dec. 21, 8:15 p.m. 
Sun Belt   Troy ESPN 
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia  Mountain West   BYU Dec. 23, 8 p.m.
Pac-10 (WAC if none) Louisiana Tech (Nevada) ESPN 
Sheraton Hawaii  WAC (gen. Hawaii)  Hawaii Dec. 24, 8 p.m. 
Pac-10 (C-USA if none) Northern Illinois* ESPN 
Motor City  MAC /2  Ball State Dec. 26, 8 p.m. 
Big Ten   Minnesota (Louisiana Tech*) ESPN 
Meineke Car Care  ACC /6/7 (gen. 6)  Clemson Dec. 27, 1 p.m. 
Big East   West Virginia ESPN
Champs Sports  ACC   Georgia Tech Dec. 27, 4:30 p.m. 
Big Ten #(4/)5 Northwestern (Wisconsin) ESPN
Emerald  Pac-10 #(4/)5  Oregon State or California Dec. 27, 8 p.m. 
ACC /6/7 (gen. 7)  Miami (FL) ESPN
Independence  SEC (or Sun Belt; Fla. Atlantic technically rates higher) Louisiana-Lafayette Dec. 28, 8:15 p.m. 
Big 12   Central Michigan* ESPN
Papajohns.com  Big East (#5?)  Connecticut Dec. 29, 3 p.m. 
SEC (Sun Belt if none) Arkansas State ESPN
Valero Alamo  Big Ten (/5) Mich. State (Northwestern) Dec. 29, 8 p.m. 
Big 12 /5 Nebraska ESPN
Roady’s Humanitarian  WAC (gen. BSU)  Fresno State (Boise State) Dec. 30, 4:30 p.m. 
ACC   Wake Forest ESPN
Texas  Big 12   Bowling Green* Dec. 30, 8 p.m. 
Conference USA   Memphis NFL Network
Pacific Life Holiday  Big 12   Missouri Dec. 30, 8 p.m. 
Pac-10   Oregon ESPN 
Bell Helicopter Armed Forces  Conference USA ?  Houston Dec. 31, Noon 
Mountain West   Air Force ESPN 
Brut Sun  Pac-10   Arizona Dec. 31, 2 p.m. 
Big 12 /Big East Pittsburgh CBS 
Gaylord Hotels Music City  SEC /7 (Team’s Pref.)  Vanderbilt Dec. 31, 3:30 p.m. 
ACC /6/7 (gen. 5; must pick Chmp. Gm. Loser if >8 wins) Boston College ESPN 
Insight  Big 12   Kansas Dec. 31, 5:30 p.m. 
Big Ten   Wisconsin (Minnesota) NFL Network 
Chick-fil-A  SEC   LSU Dec. 31, 7:30 p.m. 
ACC   North Carolina ESPN 
Outback  SEC /4 (East)  South Carolina Jan. 1, 2009, 11 a.m. 
Big Ten   Iowa (Michigan State) ESPN 
Capital One  Big Ten   Ohio State (Iowa) Jan. 1, 2009, 1 p.m.
SEC   Georgia ABC 
Konica Minolta Gator  Big 12 /Big East   Oklahoma State Jan. 1, 2009, 1 p.m. 
ACC   Florida State CBS 
Rose Bowl Game Presented by Citi  BCS (Big Ten )  Penn State Jan. 1, 2009, 4:30 p.m.
BCS (Pac-10 )  USC ABC 
FedEx Orange  BCS  Cincinnati Jan. 1, 2009, 8:30 p.m. 
BCS (ACC )  Virginia Tech FOX 
AT&T Cotton  Big 12   Texas Tech Jan. 2, 2009, 2 p.m. 
SEC /4 (West)  Mississippi FOX 
AutoZone Liberty  SEC /7 (Team’s Pref.)  Kentucky Jan. 2, 2009, 5 p.m. 
Conference USA   East Carolina ESPN 
Allstate Sugar  BCS  Utah (Ohio State) Jan. 2, 2009, 8 p.m. 
BCS (SEC )  Boise State (Alabama) FOX 
International  Big East (#4?)  Rutgers Jan. 3, 2009, Noon 
MAC   Western Michigan ESPN2 
Tostitos Fiesta BCS  Alabama (Utah) Jan. 5, 2009, 8 p.m. 
BCS (Big 12 )  Texas FOX 
GMAC  Conference USA   Tulsa Jan. 6, 2009, 8 p.m. 
MAC /2  Buffalo ESPN 
FedEx BCS National Championship Game  BCS   Florida Jan. 8, 2009, 8 p.m. 
BCS   Oklahoma FOX 

College Football Schedule: Week 15

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The much-delayed college football rankings are up. I’ve also corrected an error and listed the correct start time of the SEC Title Game. All times Eastern.

Top 25 Games
*Florida v. *Alabama 4 PM CBS
*Oklahoma @ Missouri 8 PM ABC
USC @ UCLA 4:30 ABC
Ball State v. Buffalo 8 PM FR ESPN2
East Carolina @ #23 Tulsa Noon ESPN2
Boston College v. Virginia Tech 1 PM ABC
This Week’s Other HD Games
Louisville @ Rutgers 7:30 TH ESPN
Navy v. Army Noon CBS
Pittsburgh @ Connecticut Noon ESPN
Washington @ California 3 PM FSN
Arizona State @ Arizona 8 PM ESPN
South Florida @ West Virginia 8 PM ESPN2
Cincinnati @ Hawaii 8:30PT ESPN2
Sun Belt
Middle Tenn. St. @ Louisiana-Lafayette 7 PM WE ESPN+
Arkansas State @ Troy 7 PM ESPN+
Western Kentucky @ Florida International 7 PM

As promised a significantly longer time ago than I would have hoped…

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Why should we put up with the reality presented to us by the BCS? A 16-team playoff with all conference champions can avoid most if not all of the pitfalls BCS backers claim would befall a playoff – especially if the media puts enough of an emphasis on seeding. I’ve heard people say we should top out a playoff at 8 teams and/or keep out the weaker conference champions (just the top 8 teams) in order to keep out teams that don’t deserve to play for a national championship. To which I reply: That’s kind of the point. By dangling the carrot of playing a scrub team that won a scrub conference in the first round, my system (and even an 8-team system with all BCS champions) motivates teams to keep playing even when they’re safely in the field. (It’s a more valid argument with the 8-team version, however, because lower-tier BCS conference champions are still good enough to surprise high seeds – especially overrated high seeds – and with only three rounds, can luck into a national championship, and with only two at-larges and no auto bid for good mid-major teams, they may be keeping out teams that deserve at least a shot.)

Last year, I in fact did conduct a 16-team Golden Bowl playoff, in much the way I imagine the NCAA would. Rather than blindly using the BCS rankings or even my own college football rankings, I used much the same criteria the NCAA uses for the basketball tournament: RPI, quality wins, road record, record entering the playoff, that sort of thing. The result was an odd field, to say the least (Virginia Tech the seed?), caused by most BCS programs’ tendency to schedule nothing but scrub teams in the nonconference schedule. (The ACC, which also produced Boston College as an at-large, was artificially inflated in this system simply by having a high number of high-RPI teams.) Nonetheless, I don’t think I excluded anyone that was considered a plausible candidate for the real-life national championship, with Boston College and maybe Florida the only dodgy candidate in the top 12 or 13 seeds. (This year also produced three viable at-large teams – Texas, Texas Tech, the SEC title game loser – for a five-at-large field, which has me wondering if shrinkage might be feasible.)

However, I made a mistake in having all rounds determined entirely by voting. As I had even fewer readers than I had now, I got basically no votes. Result: I ended up making a lot of painstaking read-throughs of possibly meaningless statistics at Yahoo Sports, which burned me out so bad I never actually did declare the winner of the Golden Bowl Championship. I have more readers now, but most come for the webcomic posts, and even with voting I still have to come up with some concept of how the game would go, which practically means I don’t come up with one. And that doesn’t give you a vivid concept of how a playoff would actually go. It doesn’t make you as excited as a real playoff. No simulated version can, but last year’s model wasn’t even trying.

Instead, I’m using Whatifsports.com to simulate each game – assuming they will have 2008 rosters up by next weekend (by which I mean the weekend of the 14th). Here’s how last year’s Golden Bowl might have gone down.

Also last year, I held first round games on campus sites and subsequent rounds at various other sites. The semifinals went to the Sugar and Rose Bowls, and I deliberately seeded the Big 10 and Pac-10 champions to meet in the semifinals to preserve at least a chance of the traditional matchup. (I may have underseeded USC a bit to make it work.) The quarterfinals went to the Cotton, Capital One, Orange, and Fiesta Bowls.

This year, to better preserve the role of the bowls and further increase the incentive to play for seeding, I’m moving the quarterfinals to campus sites as well, although I’m not convinced about that. The semifinals will still be at bowl sites, and for a while I was tempted to go with a system that would determine which bowls would be the semifinals by which teams made the semifinals. That would be a logistical nightmare and was only ever a sop to the Rose Bowl’s traditional Big Ten-Pac-10 matchup.

The bowls would run alongside the tournament and any teams eliminated in any round would move on to play one more game later on. First-round losers would be dumped into the general bowl pool with teams that did not make the tournament. I’m actually thinking any money they would receive would be the same as any regular season game, with only the stakes increasing its value, thus further encouraging playing for seeding and encouraging more competitive first round games. I’d also delete a week from the season, though I obviously can’t do that here – and I actually like the Pac-10’s switch to a true round-robin format since the 12th game was added – to make it work properly and prevent the Heisman ceremony from going ridiculously late.

Quarterfinal losers would go to one of the BCS bowls: the Sugar, Rose, Cotton, and Orange bowls would rotate between being semifinal games and bowls for BCS losers. I’m leaning towards not going with the Capital One Bowl, despite having a higher payout right now, higher ratings, and a higher SEC tie-in than the Cotton Bowl, because of the Cotton’s now-bastardized tradition and the Cap One’s corporate name, not to mention its proximity to the Orange Bowl. (In fact, because of the weird SEC tie-in structure for the 3 and 4 spots, which bowl I pick has major implications for the SEC tie-in structure at the top.) The Fiesta Bowl I’m reserving for a third-place game, for semifinal losers, but it still rotates with the semifinal bowls for hosting the Golden Bowl.

My work ethic and other projects and obligations permitting, the Second Annual Golden Bowl Selection Show will begin this Sunday at 7 PM ET (4 PM PT). Watch Da Countdown! Next weekend, around the 13th, I’ll post the first round results, along with a revised minor bowl schedule; quarterfinal results will be posted the weekend before Christmas. This timing hopefully avoids finals week for schools which hold finals around this time, which I know is a concern. The semifinals are held around New Year’s Day, along with perfunctory quarterfinal-loser-bowl results, and the Golden Bowl is a week or two later, maybe even as late as MLK weekend or the gap between the NFL conference championships and Super Bowl. (The idea of football being a “one-semester sport” is kind of diluted when the current National Championship Game is held on January 8th. The “gap” may be preferable to avoid conflicting with, say, the Senior Bowl, with two weeks after New Year’s even more preferable.) Fiesta Bowl results would be available anywhere from a week to a day before the Golden Bowl itself.

I’m still kind of tweaking the whole format and I’m getting a MUCH later start on actually figuring out who’s in or out than I’d otherwise like. Still, I hope you have an opinion and you’re ready for the ride…

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 13

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NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with last season in mind):

  • Begins Sunday of Week 11
  • In effect during Weeks 11-17
  • Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
  • The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET. (Note: Last year, NBC listed a tentative game for Week 17; they are not doing so this year.)
  • The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
  • The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
  • The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night. (Note: Again, excluding Week 17.)
  • Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
  • NFL schedules all games.
  • Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
  • Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and could not protect any games Week 17 last year. Unless I find out otherwise, I’m assuming that’s still the case this year, especially with no tentative game listed Week 17, and that protections were scheduled after Week 4.
  • Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 4 post.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 16):

  • Selected game: Dallas @ Washington.

Week 12 (November 23):

  • Selected game: Indianapolis @ San Diego.

Week 13 (November 30):

  • Selected game: Chicago @ Minnesota.

Week 14 (December 7):

  • Selected game: Washington @ Baltimore.

Week 15 (December 14):

  • Selected game: NY Giants @ Dallas.

Week 16 (December 21):

  • Tentative game: San Diego @ Tampa Bay
  • Prospects: 4-8 @ 9-3? Good lord is this game lopsided.
  • Likely protections: Panthers-Giants or Eagles-Redskins (FOX) and Steelers-Titans (CBS).
  • “That’s my story and I’m sticking to it”‘s protections: Eagles-Redskins (FOX) and Steelers-Titans (CBS)
  • Other possible games: Cardinals-Patriots is still strong and Bills-Broncos and Falcons-Vikings are still at least close. If TMS&ISTI is right all this is moot because the Panthers and Giants would have to collapse to give up the spot (the Panthers did lose this week), but if it was Panthers-Giants protected Eagles-Redskins would be in it as well. Even if Panthers-Giants had been protected, Cardinals-Patriots is a strong enough game it probably would have gotten the spot anyway.
  • Analysis: If Panthers-Giants isn’t protected I might as well pick it now. If it is, there are four games that are very close, and Falcons-Vikings is probably the leader in the clubhouse at 8-4 v. 7-5. Cardinals-Patriots is next at 7-5 @ 7-5, then Eagles-Redskins at 6-5-1 @ 7-5, then Bills-Broncos at 6-6 @ 7-5. For any of these games to have a shot, Panthers-Giants must be protected and the Falcons, at the very least, must lose. A Falcons loss, a Vikings win, and wins by the Cardinals and Patriots would put those two games on even footing; Bills-Broncos needs a perfect scenario (Falcons and Vikings losses, Bills and Broncos wins), but Eagles-Redskins might get close enough to pull a pretty good case that the Eagles should have won “The Tie” and the accounting should be even.

Week 17 (December 28 Playoff Positioning Watch):

  • Note that not only is there no longer an NBC tentative game, there’s no NFL Network game. Apparently the league learned their lesson from last year’s Patriots-Giants debacle.
  • AFC East: Anyone’s game. All four teams within two games of one another, with the Jets leading, the Pats and Dolphins a game back, and the Bills a game behind that. The Pats and Bills play each other, as do the Dolphins and Jets.
  • AFC North: The Steelers and Ravens are the only two teams still in it; Steelers have a one-game edge. The Steelers play the Browns while the Ravens play the Jags.
  • AFC South: The Titans are running away with it, with the Colts the only other team with a shot. No matter the standings, if the Titans remain undefeated Titans-Colts could be a lock.
  • AFC West: Chiefs out, Raiders hanging on by a tiebreaker. Broncos and Chargers the main contenders, and play each other. Hmm. However, the gap is three games, advantage Broncos, and the Raiders are only a game behind the Chargers.
  • AFC Wild Card: The Ravens and Colts would get the nod if the season ended today. The Dolphins and Patriots are a game back, and the Bills are waiting in the wings. Both East games and Titans-Colts are the main AFC contenders. Raiders, Chiefs, Bengals out, Chargers, Jags, Browns need a tiebreaker.
  • NFC East: The Giants have a three-game lead over the Cowboys, with the Redskins hanging on by a tiebreaker and the Eagles out by half a game. The Giants play the Vikings while the Cowboys face the Eagles.
  • NFC North: Vikings lead, Bears a game back, Packers two, Lions out. The Bears play the Texans and the Packers play the Lions, but the Vikings play the Giants.
  • NFC South: Every team still in it, with the Panthers and Bucs leading, the Falcons a game back, and the Saints three back. The Panthers play the Saints, but Tampa Bay plays the Raiders and the Falcons play the Rams.
  • NFC West: The Cardinals are running away with it and the 49ers are the only other team with a shot. Cardinals play the Seahawks. Hardly must-see TV.
  • NFC Wild Card: The Panthers-Bucs loser and either the Cowboys or Falcons would get the nod if the season ended today. Redskins a game back, Eagles 1.5 back, Bears and Saints waiting in the wings. Packers three back, 49ers need a tiebreak. Giants-Vikings, Cowboys-Eagles, and Panthers-Saints are strong games, but that may be it in the NFC and the last one could be fading. Those could be competitive games for the NBC pick, though.

I need to remind myself that I *CAN* save long TV Tropes pages for reading at home.

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Welp, I have once again had a disappointingly unproductive day.

But I have updated the lineal titles on the website. You may not have paid much attention to the Iron Bowl or the Florida-Florida State game, but it had two lineal title implications: first, the SEC Title Game will unify the 2004 Auburn-Utah and 2008 BCS titles (finally, the two SEC titles actually get unified!), and second, there will be no need for a 2009 BCS title because the unified Auburn-Utah title will be at stake in the National Title Game.

More stating the obvious: if Oklahoma wins the Big 12 Title Game and goes on to play for the national title, it’ll merge Auburn-Utah with Princeton-Yale, and we’ll be left with all of two lineal titles. Which is nowhere near as fun, especially when one is the safely-ignorable 2007 Boise State title (unless Utah loses their bowl). Our last hope may be for Boise and Ball States to continue undefeated…

College Football Schedule: Week 14

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Better late than never, even if a big chunk of the weekend’s games have been played already. All times Eastern.

Top 25 Games
*Florida @ #19 Florida State 3:30 ABC/ESPN2
*Oklahoma @ #16 Oklahoma State 8 PM ABC
Texas A&M 9-49 Texas Final TH ESPN
Notre Dame @ USC 8 PM ESPN
Fresno State 10-61 Boise State Final FR ESPN2
Auburn @ *Alabama 3:30 CBS
Kansas v. Missouri 12:30 FSN
Baylor @ #12 Texas Tech 3:30 VS.
Western Michigan 22-45 Ball State Final TU ESPN2
Georgia Tech @ #14 Georgia Noon CBS
Mississippi State 0-45 #18 Mississippi Final FR R’com/Y’hoo
#20 North Carolina @ Duke 3:30 ESPNU
#21 West Virginia 15-19 Pittsburgh Final FR ABC
Oregon @ #22 Oregon State 7 PM VS.
#23 Tulsa @ Marshall 3:30
Colorado 31-40 Nebraska Final FR ABC
#25 Houston @ Rice 3:30 CBS CS
Watchlist and Other Positive B Point Teams
Maryland @ Boston College 3:30 ABC/ESPN2
This Week’s Other HD Games
LSU 30-31 Arkansas Final FR CBS
UCLA 9-34 Arizona State Final FR ESPN2
Virginia @ Virginia Tech Noon ESPN
Miami (FL) @ NC State Noon Raycom
South Carolina @ Clemson Noon ESPN2
Kentucky @ Tennessee 6:30 ESPN2
Vanderbilt @ Wake Forest 7 PM ESPNU
Big East
Syracuse @ Cincinnati Noon BEN (ESPN+)
MAC
Ohio 41-26 Miami (OH) Final FR ESPNU
Central Michigan 52-56 Eastern Michigan Final FR CSD.TV
Akron 6-27 Temple Final FR CSD.TV
Kent State 24-21 Buffalo Final FR Gameplan
Bowling Green 38-10 Toledo Final FR ESPN Classic
C-USA
UTEP 21-53 East Carolina Final FR CBS CS
UAB @ Central Florida 1 PM CBSCS XXL
Southern Miss @ SMU 3 PM CBSCS XXL
Tulane @ Memphis 3:30 CSS
WAC
Nevada @ Louisiana Tech 2:30 ESPN+
New Mexico State @ Utah State 3 PM Gameplan
Sun Belt
Arkansas State @ North Texas 2 PM CSD.TV
Florida International @ Florida Atlantic 4 PM
Bowl Subdivision
Navy 16-0 Northern Illinois Final TU ESPN Classic
Washington State @ Hawaii 8 PT Gameplan

Hey, I wasn’t going to make the strip slip to the morning again.

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I may be spending the night at a relative’s, but nonetheless I’m still posting the new college football rankings (long-overdue, as always) and updating the lineal titles!

Now if only I could take care of that nagging college football schedule…

Details about changes to my college football playoff should be coming by the time next week’s rankings come out, including a major change I’m considering compared to last year.

Thanksgiving Day Sports Watcher

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Watch Titans-Lions, Seahawks-Cowboys, and Cardinals-Eagles.

Hey, it’s what you’re doing anyway.

Providence @ Baylor is on ESPN2 at 8:30 PM PT for those of you who have been waiting for the debut of college basketball on the Watcher.

Not sure if I’ll have a watcher for the rest of the weekend.

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 12

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NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with last season in mind):

  • Begins Sunday of Week 11
  • In effect during Weeks 11-17
  • Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
  • The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET. (Note: Last year, NBC listed a tentative game for Week 17; they are not doing so this year.)
  • The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
  • The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
  • The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night. (Note: Again, excluding Week 17.)
  • Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
  • NFL schedules all games.
  • Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
  • Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and could not protect any games Week 17 last year. Unless I find out otherwise, I’m assuming that’s still the case this year, especially with no tentative game listed Week 17, and that protections were scheduled after Week 4.
  • Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 4 post.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 16):

  • Selected game: Dallas @ Washington.

Week 12 (November 23):

  • Selected game: Indianapolis @ San Diego.

Week 13 (November 30):

  • Selected game: Chicago @ Minnesota.

Week 14 (December 7):

  • Selected game: Washington @ Baltimore.

Week 15 (December 14):

  • Tentative game: NY Giants @ Dallas
  • Prospects: This is why I had Fox protect Bears-Packers Week 11 (as did TMS&ISTI): so they could leave this week protection-free and maximize their chances of getting a marquee NFC East matchup back. And with the Cowboys energized by the return of Tony Romo, this game will be hard to beat on its own merits. Despite what I said last week, 10-1 v. 7-4 is pretty good.
  • Likely protections: Steelers-Ravens, Broncos-Panthers, Bills-Jets, or nothing (CBS).
  • “That’s my story and I’m sticking to it”‘s protections: None.
  • Other possible games: Bucs-Falcons looks great, but they’re running in a dead heat with Steelers-Ravens if that game isn’t protected. Bills-Jets and Broncos-Panthers both trail those two, and may be widening a bit too close for comfort. Vikings-Cardinals is still a dark horse, but realistically it’s out.
  • Analysis: Giants-Cowboys is lopsided enough that a Cowboys loss can still open things up for a mathematically inferior game, but it has two major advantages: name value and being the tentative game. Bucs-Falcons and Steelers-Ravens are the only major threats to unseat it. Both are 3-loss teams v. 4-loss teams; if the Cowboys lose, the Giants win, and both teams in either matchup win, they would actually be looking at the same average number of losses. The Cowboys loss would be at home to Seattle, and there may be a feeling that the ‘Boys would logically have trouble on the road at Pittsburgh next week if that were to happen. And the Steelers are a name team while the Falcons have the draw of Matt Ryan. And if Bills-Jets came close enough NBC might be tempted at the prospect of Brett Favre in primetime. But in a season this flex-averse? With two name teams from football’s best division?
  • Final prediction: New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys (no change).

Week 16 (December 21):

  • Tentative game: San Diego @ Tampa Bay
  • Prospects: 4-7 @ 8-3? Good lord is this game lopsided.
  • Likely protections: Panthers-Giants or Eagles-Redskins (FOX) and Steelers-Titans (CBS).
  • “That’s my story and I’m sticking to it”‘s protections: Eagles-Redskins (FOX) and Steelers-Titans (CBS)
  • Other possible games: Cardinals-Patriots is still strong and Bills-Broncos is still nominally in it, while Falcons-Vikings stands in between. If TMS&ISTI is right all this is moot because the Panthers and Giants would have to collapse to give up the spot (the Panthers did lose this week), but if it was Panthers-Giants protected Eagles-Redskins would be about on par with Falcons-Vikings. Even if Panthers-Giants had been protected, Cardinals-Patriots is a strong enough game it probably would have gotten the spot anyway.

Week 17 (December 28 Playoff Positioning Watch):

  • Note that not only is there no longer an NBC tentative game, there’s no NFL Network game. Apparently the league learned their lesson from last year’s Patriots-Giants debacle.
  • AFC East: Anyone’s game. All four teams within two games of one another, with the Jets leading, the Pats a game back, and the other two a game behind that. The Pats and Bills play each other, as do the Dolphins and Jets.
  • AFC North: The Steelers and Ravens are running away with it, with the Steelers holding the one-game edge and the Bengals out. The Steelers play the Browns while the Ravens play the Jags.
  • AFC South: The Titans are running away with it, with the Colts the only other team with a shot. No matter the standings, if the Titans remain undefeated Titans-Colts could be a lock.
  • AFC West: Every team is theoretically in it, with the Chiefs hanging on by a tiebreaker. Broncos and Chargers the main contenders, and play each other. Hmm. However, the gap is two games, advantage Broncos, and the Raiders (who play the Bucs) are creeping up.
  • AFC Wild Card: Any two of the Patriots, Ravens, and Colts would get the nod if the season ended today. The Dolphins and Bills are a game back, with the Browns, Jags, and Chargers all losing this week. Their respective games are in trouble, but both East games and Titans-Colts are still strong. Chiefs out, Bengals hanging on by half a game.
  • NFC East: The Giants have a three-game lead over the Redskins and Cowboys. The Giants play the Vikings but the Redskins play the 49ers and the Cowboys face the Eagles.
  • NFC North: Bears and Vikings tied, Pack a game back, Lions out. The Bears play the Texans and the Packers play the Lions, but the Vikings play the Giants.
  • NFC South: Every team within two games, with the Panthers and Bucs leading, the Falcons a game back, and the Saints waiting in the wings. The Panthers play the Saints, but Tampa Bay plays the Raiders and the Falcons play the Rams.
  • NFC West: The Cardinals are running away with it and the Seahawks and Rams need tiebreakers, which the Rams won’t get (too many division losses already). Cardinals play the Seahawks. Hardly must-see TV.
  • NFC Wild Card: The Panthers-Bucs loser and either the Redskins, Cowboys, or Falcons would get the nod if the season ended today. Bears-Vikings loser a game back, Eagles 1.5 back, Packers waiting in the wings. Seahawks, Rams, Lions out, 49ers need a tiebreak. Giants-Vikings, Cowboys-Eagles, and Panthers-Saints are strong games, but that may be it in the NFC. Those could be competitive games for the NBC pick, though.

Last-Minute Remarks on SNF Week 14 picks

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Week 14 (December 7):

  • Tentative game: New England @ Seattle
  • Prospects: The Seahawks are just too terrible for this game to keep its spot. 7-4 v. 2-9? Please.
  • Likely protections: Cowboys-Steelers (FOX) and if anything, Jags-Bears (CBS). Accurate according to this.
  • Other possible games mentioned on Wednesday’s Watch and their records: Redskins (7-4)-Ravens (7-4), Eagles (5-5-1)-Giants (10-1), Falcons (7-4)-Saints (5-5), Dolphins (6-5)-Bills (6-5), Titans (10-1)-Browns (4-7).
  • Impact of Monday Night Football: Saints can move up or down, but it probably doesn’t matter.
  • Analysis: I said on Wednesday that this was Redskins-Ravens’ to lose, and both teams won. If NBC wanted to swerve us it would probably take a Saints victory on Monday night to produce a game only a half-game worse, but even then it’s unlikely. If it’s playoff battles NBC wants, the Redskins are in the thick of a wild card battle and the Ravens have a shot at the AFC North, yet are also far from secure for the wild card. If NBC wants to hold on to the possibility of flexing in either team later, the only real flexible game either team has the rest of the way, including Week 17, is next week when Giants-Cowboys will likely keep its spot, and neither team is anywhere near the limit anyway. If NBC keeps a godawful Patriots-Seahawks matchup (“hey, we get to see Matt Cassel!”) with a game like Redskins-Ravens on the table (and I’m a Seattlite), I might just give up. The fact I’m even considering the possibility and building such an ironclad case for flexing should tell you a lot. (Go on. The flex button won’t hurt you.)
  • Final prediction: Washington Redskins @ Baltimore Ravens.