Football

I personally would have preferred a Pats-Packers Super Bowl…

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I mean, that would have basically guaranteed the best rating in Super Bowl history, right? A quest for perfection combined with the most popular and revered QB in America who might have a chance to end his career Elway-style with a Super Bowl win? Over a team a significant proportion of the country does not like because they think Tom Brady is too much of a celebrity, Bill Belichick is too inhumanly cold, and the whole team cheats. (As recently as Christmas I got a comment attacking me for my Patriots Run to 19-0, which has been updated by the way. Belatedly.)

Why I haven’t put up the results of the Golden Bowl (and a few other news and notes)

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Some of you may have noticed that I haven’t posted the results of the first Golden Bowl between LSU and USC, and it’s for the same reason I decided to drop the SuperPower Rankings. The Golden Bowl tournament turned out to be a lot less fun than I had hoped.

For almost every game, I had to pore over the numbers and probably reached a lot of wrong conclusions. I found myself breathing sighs of relief when the two people who voted on the second and third rounds agreed. It wasn’t as time consuming as the SuperPower Rankings but it left me with a sense of dread entering each round.

I had been planning on having a grandiose, John-Facenda-esque description of the Golden Bowl, but I barely managed to work up the knowledge or desire to write any description at all throughout the tournament. I have a feeling I would have fallen well short. Not only is a college football playoff far from an original idea, but others are doing much of what I intended to do a lot better than I would have.

That said, unlike the SuperPower Rankings, I’m still doing this next year. I like the Golden Bowl name, I’m hoping Da Blog grows enough in the next year that I won’t have to break ties at all, and I feel that a lot of simulated playoffs or proposed brackets blindly follow the BCS standings. I’ve heard it argued that a plus-one system would have ignored Georgia or USC in favor of Virginia Tech or Oklahoma; what that ignores is that a plus one would have forced the pollsters to pay more attention to the top four the way they pay attention to the top two now, which likely means Georgia would have gotten past V-Tech or the Sooners, since they arguably had a stronger case for a national title shot than either. (Yes, I know V-Tech was my number 1 seed.) A true simulated playoffs that follows close to what the reality probably would be should follow the NCAA guidelines.

So, this ends the brief spurt of productivity from Da Blog from football. Sure, we’re a few steps away from the Super Bowl – the Patriots just blew past their 17th team, as reflected on the site – but that’s a fairly small part of what we do around here.

No, don’t run away! Come back! I know a lot of you are here for the football, so what can I do to get you to stick around?

Well, let’s start with my 100 Greatest Movies Project, which has been described in the past on the off chance you came here before it was cool. If you happen to be a fan of the movies, and not just the standard popcorn fare but all the classics from Hollywood’s golden age to the present day, I could use you to explain to the masses why they better recognize. If you want to write tributes and descriptions for Hollywood’s greatest films, let me know in the comments or at mwmailsea at yahoo dot com.

But I have another plan to induce the teeming masses to come here. And stay here. I have plans for a new regular feature that I have high hopes for, one that could potentially attract a much larger audience than what I’ve achieved so far. One that could start as soon as tonight.
What is it? Well, let’s just say you can expect to see a lot of this sometime soon:

The final college football rankings of 2007 (and other musings)

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I’ve kept track of who won my College Football Rankings for three years, counting this year. The first year, the title went to Texas, as my rankings correctly predicted the winner of the national title game. The second year, it went to Louisville as the Big East got disrespected.

This year, West Virginia’s beatdown of Oklahoma threatened to topple them, but for two out of three years, the BCS and my rankings agree on who is the true national champion: LSU.

Longtime readers know that I have, on occasion, remarked on the standing of professional sports leagues and their market penetration, this being an example. I’ve realized that I haven’t had any words on Seattle’s long-time-coming MLS team, which will result in an uneven distribution of teams between Eastern and Western conferences. Seattle bypassed Philadelphia, Atlanta, Detroit, Phoenix, and former MLS home Tampa Bay to put the league’s 15th team in the #14 media market. But being a Seattleite myself, and especially being the son of a soccer fanatic, I’m actually a little surprised MLS didn’t come here sooner – this area is one of soccer’s few homes to truly devoted fans, and MLS is sure to carve a niche should the Sonics move. It’s like having a hockey team in Buffalo – there aren’t going to be a lot of people, but boy will they be devoted. The only possible objection I’d have is that MLS didn’t try to re-establish itself in the South, especially with the WNBA putting a team in Atlanta. But I’m sure they’ll do that in a matter of years to put the league at a nice, round 16 teams.

By the 2000 definition, Philadelphia, Detroit, Atlanta, and Miami are the only larger metro areas without an MLS team. I erred on my earlier post on the Atlanta WNBA team, where I said that Seattle had been the largest metro area with a WNBA team but no MLS team; not only does that honor also go to Detroit, but Detroit wasn’t even dethroned by Atlanta. Phoenix would have inherited that crown had I been right.

A Confession

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As I’ve said before, it’s a bit of a chore to put out the SuperPower Rankings each week. Therefore, I have made an important decision:

I will not put them out this week.

There’s even less impetus this week than there normally is, I’ve delayed it to Friday already, and there’s a bunch of stuff I’ve been meaning to do over the vacation that I haven’t done, which the SuperPower Rankings would only delay.

But if you want to put together some ratings yourself, look at the following URLs:
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/powerranking
http://www.sportsline.com/nfl/powerrankings
http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/powerRankings
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/dr_z/01/02/rankins.part1/index.html
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/football/nfl/2007-power-rankings.htm
http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?t=331743
http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news?slug=ys-rankings010108&prov=yhoo&type=lgns
http://www.nbcsports.com/portal/site/nbcsports/menuitem.26521619de8457ec32288a6f8a3c2d04/?vgnextoid=af1c7e8491615110VgnVCM10000082c3d240RCRD&vgnextfmt=default

I still like the idea behind the SuperPower Rankings, but I’m not enjoying it as much as I thought I might. Let’s move onward into the NFL Playoffs and whatever else we look at on Da Blog from here on out.

The 2008 Golden Bowl – Setup

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Once again, I had one easy selection and one in which I had to make the tiebreaker:

LSU v. USC
Once again, what home field gave to Georgia in the Capital One Bowl, it took away in the Rose Bowl. A ten-point win for USC gives the Men of Troy a game… has it really been five years in the making? Yes, it’s exactly the same national championship game we thought we’d get at the start of the season, but how we got here is another matter entirely.

Simply put, this is a battle between the solid LSU offense, keyed by a strong running attack… and one of the toughest defenses in the country.

But LSU is no slouch of a defense. In total yards allowed, it’s third and USC is second. If the old adage – “defense wins championships” – is true, this game will certainly prove it. And perhaps the only reason LSU trails USC is because LSU had to come out of the SEC… not to mention its high-powered offense… and the game, like the real national championship game, is in New Orleans…

Polls close 8 PM PST on Monday.

One last Christmas present for you all…

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New SuperPower Rankings, of course, and an update on the Patriots’ blitz through the entire NFL.

The Upset Special for the week is Miami beating the Bengals.

Can someone explain to me why Atlanta is favored over Seattle, even with the Seahawks having nothing to play for?

I was going to add something else really insightful, but I forgot it. But here are the teams that could get each pick of the NFL Draft, in selection order for all rounds. I’m discounting strength of schedule because that’s too hard to look up and I’m not sure of the formula anyway.

  1. Dolphins
  2. Rams/Falcons/Jets/Ravens/Raiders/Chiefs (last three must lose and must have all of first three win)
  3. Rams/Falcons/Jets/Ravens/Raiders/Chiefs (last three must lose and must have two out of first three win)
  4. Rams/Falcons/Jets/Ravens/Raiders/Chiefs (fourth and fifth must lose and must have one out of first three win; Chiefs must lose)
  5. Rams/Falcons/Jets/Ravens/Raiders/Chiefs/49ers (first two must win and must have one out of next three lose; Jets must win; 49ers must lose and must have all of previous three win)
  6. Rams/Falcons/Jets/Ravens/Raiders/Chiefs/49ers (first three must win and must have two out of next three lose; 49ers must lose and must have two out of previous three win)
  7. Rams/Falcons/Jets/Ravens/Raiders/Chiefs/49ers (first three must win and must have all of next three lose; 49ers must lose and must have one out of previous three win)
  8. Ravens/Raiders/Chiefs/Panthers/Bears/Broncos/Bengals/49ers (first three must win and must have 49ers lose; four in-between must lose and must have 49ers win)
  9. Panthers/Bears/Broncos/Bengals/49ers/Lions/Eagles/Texans/Bills/Saints/Cardinals (49ers must win and must have one out of first four lose; last six must lose and must have all of first four win)
  10. Panthers/Bears/Broncos/Bengals/49ers/Lions/Eagles/Texans/Bills/Saints/Cardinals (49ers must win and must have two out of first four lose; last six must lose and must have three of first four win)
  11. Panthers/Bears/Broncos/Bengals/49ers/Lions/Eagles/Texans/Bills/Saints/Cardinals (49ers must win and must have three out of first four lose; last six must lose and must have two out of first four win)
  12. Panthers/Bears/Broncos/Bengals/49ers/Lions/Eagles/Texans/Bills/Saints/Cardinals (49ers must win and must have all of first four lose; Lions, Eagles, Texans, Bills, and Cardinals must lose and must have one out of first four win; Saints must lose)
  13. Panthers/Bears/Broncos/Bengals/Lions/Eagles/Texans/Bills/Saints/Cardinals (Panthers, Broncos, and Bengals must win and must have one out of last six lose; Bears must win)
  14. Panthers/Bears/Broncos/Bengals/Lions/Eagles/Texans/Bills/Saints/Cardinals/Redskins/Vikings (first four must win and must have two out of next six lose; last two must lose and must have five of previous six win)
  15. Panthers/Bears/Broncos/Bengals/Lions/Eagles/Texans/Bills/Saints/Cardinals/Redskins/Vikings (first four must win and must have three out of next six lose; last two must lose and must have four of previous six win)
  16. Panthers/Bears/Broncos/Bengals/Lions/Eagles/Texans/Bills/Saints/Cardinals/Redskins/Vikings (first four must win and must have four out of next six lose; last two must lose and must have three of previous six win)
  17. Panthers/Bears/Broncos/Bengals/Lions/Eagles/Texans/Bills/Saints/Cardinals/Redskins/Vikings (first four must win and must have five out of next six lose; last two must lose and must have two of previous six win)
  18. Browns/Titans/Bucs/Redskins/Vikings/Lions/Eagles/Texans/Bills/Saints/Cardinals (first three must lose and must have both of next two win; Lions, Eagles, Texans, Bills, and Cardinals must win and must have Redskins or Vikings lose)
  19. Browns/Titans/Bucs/Redskins/Vikings/Lions/Eagles/Texans/Bills/Saints/Cardinals (first three must lose and must have one of next two win; Lions, Eagles, Texans, Bills, and Cardinals must win and must have Redskins and Vikings lose; Saints must win and must have Redskins or Vikings lose)
  20. Giants/Seahawks/Chargers/Steelers/Browns/Titans/Bucs/Redskins/Vikings/Saints (first four must lose and must have Bucs and (Browns OR Titans) win; Saints must make playoffs)
  21. Giants/Seahawks/Chargers/Steelers/Browns/Titans/Bucs/Redskins/Vikings (first four must lose and must have one of next three win; last two must win and must have one out of previous three lose)
  22. Jaguars/Giants/Seahawks/Chargers/Steelers/Browns/Titans/Bucs/Redskins/Vikings (Jaguars must lose and must have all of next four win; last two must win and must have two out of previous three lose)
  23. Jaguars/Giants/Seahawks/Chargers/Steelers/Browns/Titans/Bucs/Redskins/Vikings (Jaguars must lose and must have three out of next four win; last two must win and must have all of previous three lose)
  24. Jaguars/Giants/Seahawks/Chargers/Steelers/Browns/Titans/Bucs (Jaguars must lose and must have two out of next four win; last three must win and must have one out of previous four lose)
  25. Jaguars/Giants/Seahawks/Chargers/Steelers/Browns/Titans/Bucs (Jaguars must lose and must have one out of next four win; last three must win and must have two out of previous four lose)
  26. Packers/Jaguars/Giants/Seahawks/Chargers/Steelers/Browns/Titans/Bucs (Packers must lose and must have Jaguars win; last three must win and must have three out of previous four lose)
  27. Colts/Cowboys/Packers/Jaguars/Giants/Seahawks/Chargers/Steelers/Browns/Titans/Bucs (last three must win and must have four preceding all lose; first two must lose and must have Packers win)
  28. Colts/Cowboys/Packers/Jaguars/Giants/Seahawks/Chargers/Steelers (last four must win and must have Jaguars lose)
  29. Colts/Cowboys/Packers/Jaguars (Jaguars must win and must have Packers lose)
  30. Patriots/Colts/Cowboys/Packers (Packers must win and must have Colts lose)
  31. SB loser (Patriots/Colts/Cowboys/Packers/Chargers/Steelers/Seahawks/Bucs/Jaguars/Giants/Browns/Titans/Redskins/Vikings/Saints) (last five must make playoffs)
  32. SB winner (Patriots/Colts/Cowboys/Packers/Chargers/Steelers/Seahawks/Bucs/Jaguars/Giants/Browns/Titans/Redskins/Vikings/Saints) (last five must make playoffs)

Golden Bowl Tournament Semifinals

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I only had to make decisions on two races, and only then because the vote (two for each match) split.

LSU v. Oklahoma (Sugar Bowl)
The mass of red in the stands of the Cotton Bowl turn the tide when a late comeback attempt by the Hokies ends just short of the first-down marker on fourth down. But what relative home field giveth, it can also taketh away. The and #12 offenses in the country promise to light up the scoreboard – but not if the and #20 defenses (the latter of which gives up the third-fewest yards per game) have anything to say about it. LSU relies on its #12 rushing attack, but it will have to contend with the run defense of the Sooners. Oklahoma is more balanced, with a #18 rushing game and #26 passing game, but LSU is #18 and #17 at stopping the run and pass, respectively. It’s like they’re set up to counter each other!

Georgia v. USC (Rose Bowl)
Ohio State gets a surprise from a Georgia team that comes ready to match them on defense, as the Buckeye offense is exposed in a tight 7-6 Georgia victory that ends on an interception by the Bulldog defense snuffing a late comeback attempt. Things don’t get any easier for the Bulldogs, as they now have to travel far from home to play a team that some say should be seeded a lot higher. USC’s defense is not much worse than Ohio State’s – fourth in points, second in total yardage, eighth in passing defense, fourth in run defense – but it also does not have that great an offense, and if Georgia can handle Ohio State they can handle USC. As with Ohio State, USC’s offensive strength comes on the run.

All polls expire New Year’s Day at 5pm PT.

Running Playoff and SNF Week 17 Watch

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I’ll be updating this post throughout the day and not creating any new posts. New changes:
-A Browns loss cinches up the division for the Steelers. And they’re losing at the moment.
-A Packers loss cinches up the seed for the Cowboys. And they’re losing at the moment. Not even Favre love is likely to save NBC.
-The Panthers are out with a loss, so Bucs-Panthers is out on Sunday Night.
I’ll report on the results as they come in. Jags are beating the Raiders which could cinch up the 5 seed. Giants are beating the Bills which should cinch a playoff spot. Saints losing to the Eagles at home.

Bills have taken the lead over the Giants.

Giants got down to 4th and G on the 1 but could not score. That’s proving to be an interesting game.

Giants just got an INT return for a TD to retake the lead. The Bears look like they will relegate the Packers to a 2 seed.

Bears knock off the Packers, so the Cowboys and Packers have nothing to play for. That means next week’s game is meaningless enough that Favre might not play, meaning NBC might shy away from it. Titans-Colts may now be a virtual lock, assuming the Titans end the day still with a shot at the playoffs.

Giants have opened up a big lead and are probably playoff-bound. Bengals knocked off the Browns so the Steelers win the AFC North.

Jags beat Raiders. Here’s the AFC Playoff Picture:

  • As mentioned, the Steelers win the AFC North.
  • The win by the Jags and the loss by the Browns cinches up a 5 seed for the Jags. A Titans win ties them with the Browns for the 6 seed and likely cinches up Titans-Colts as the favorite, or at least top competitor with Packers-Lions.
  • I doubt MNF really comes into play here, but the Steelers did win earlier in the week, so the Chargers are at risk of a 4 seed.

Giants over the Bills now official. Eagles defeat Saints. Here’s the NFC Playoff Picture:

  • Giants win to move to 10-5 and lock up a playoff spot. Vikings still pending. Saints lose to move to 1.5 games back, and now desperately need the Redskins to win to even be able to come down to a tiebreaker. If Washington beats Minnesota, then both Washington and Minnesota lose Week 17, and the Saints win next week, then I believe everyone would have 8 losses and, as described in my previous Flex Scheduling Watch, the Saints would be plucked by the tiebreaker. But again, there is only one scenario in which the Saints move into the playoffs. Now if the Vikings win, they’re in.
  • Dallas is now the 1, Green Bay the 2. Tampa Bay and Seattle are playing now for the 3, and the Bucs have just taken a 3-point lead.

Let’s move into the afternoon games.

Bucs behind in a tight one against the 49ers. Titans leading Jets, Seahawks demolishing Ravens.

Two games are very interesting, the Bucs and Titans games.

Jets are driving and attempting to come back.

TO on downs, then Titans pick up a first and they will keep their playoff hopes alive. Titans-Colts a good bet for next week on NBC.

Meanwhile Bucs are down against the 49ers. Not the way they want to enter the playoffs. Seahawks still leading big.

Seahawks win, and the Bucs go down despite a late comeback, so the Seahawks will get the 3.

In the AFC, Titans and Browns are tied for the final playoff spot. I’ve heard that the Titans would hold a tiebreaker over the Browns and thus would only need a win to get in. Of course, it’s against the Colts. This pick is very tenuous, and there’s still a chance that NBC will spring Brett Favre love on us, but there are two things against that: 1) The Packers are in the playoffs, so unlike last year this is not going to be Favre’s last game period, and 2) The Packers aren’t playing for anything, so expect Favre to get limited playing time.

Final prediction: Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts.

Actual selection: Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts (just announced on NBC itself).