College Football

Don’t ruin your graphics, ESPN!

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I didn’t like ESPN’s new strip for college football last year, thinking the little timeout indicators were too jarring and thrown on at the last minute. They grew on me as the season went on, but I doubt THIS will grow on me quite so much.

(Image taken from ESPN Video.) There’s now a thick red line at the top of the strip, and the space above it is shaded. Statistics that last year were shown on a small translucent trapezoid on top of the strip, in fairly light type, are now shown in this area. I saw this sort of thing, sans thick red line, on lesser NCAA championships last school year, such as in lacrosse, but I can’t help but think it’s distracting, unnecessary, and could obscure the action. It almost makes ESPN look bush league.

Do any of you have any suggestions for improving ESPN’s score strip? I don’t really have much of a problem with their overall graphics package.

Sports Watcher Labor Day 3-day Weekend Special for the Weekend of 8/30-9/1

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All times PDT.

Saturday
8-11 AM: College Football, Appalachian State @ defending 2008 BCS title holder LSU (ESPN Classic). Yes, it’s college football season again! Can lightning strike twice for App State?

12:30-3:30 PM: College Football, defending 2007 Boise State title holder USC v. Virginia (ABC/ESPN2). The move of the App State/LSU game could have opened things up for baseball, but this isn’t change, this is more of the same!

5:30-8:30 PM: College Football, Illinois v. defending Princeton-Yale title holder Missouri (ESPN). Once my C Ratings come out, everything is based on relative rating. Until then, you get this.

Sunday
10-12:30 PM: WNBA Basketball, Seattle @ Connecticut (ABC). I’m embarrassed to admit I don’t know whether this is a regular season game or an early-round postseason game.

12:30-3 PM: IndyCar Racing, IndyCar Grand Prix at Detroit (ABC). Normally road course races are a bit of a slog, but I was glued to my TV last weekend rooting for Helio Castroneves to break a lengthy winless streak at Infineon. Too bad it was relegated to ESPN2.

5-8 PM: MLB Baseball, LA Dodgers @ Arizona (ESPN2). Bumped to the Deuce by NASCAR.

Monday
11-3 PM: PGA Tour Golf, Deutsche Bank Championship (NBC). I didn’t realize until this week that the PGA Tour “playoffs” no one cares about had started. I had been thinking this was an important weekend for Sports Watcher with no real big events…

4-6 PM (potentially 4-9 PM on the West Coast): US Open Tennis, octofinal-round action (USA). The Labor Day college football game is mediocre v. mediocre in Tennessee v. UCLA, only of interest to masturbating “my c0nf3rence is teh rulz” spewers, and otherwise I couldn’t get tennis on here.

5-8 PM: College Football, Tennessee v. UCLA (ESPN). Mediocre v. mediocre. How exciting.

College Football Schedule: Week 1

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A new feature on Da Blog this year will be the weekly posting of the Division I-A college football schedule for the week, with information on how to catch games on TV from here. Starting Week 5, the list will be sorted by C Rating of the higher-rated team for all teams in positive B Points. Before then, of course, there will be no ratings to go off of, but I’ll still spotlight the lineal title holders (Princeton-Yale always goes first) and any games available in HD. Starting next week, it should go up on Tuesdays, at least that’s what I’m feeling right now. All times Eastern.

Lineal Titles (all games on Saturday)
Illinois v. *Missouri 8:30 ESPN
Georgia Southern @ *Georgia 12:30 ESPN360
*USC @ Virginia 3:30 ABC/ESPN2
Appalachian State @ *LSU 5 PM ESPN
Thursday (today)
UTEP @ Buffalo 7 PM CSD.TV
Northeastern @ Ball State 7 PM CSD.TV
Eastern Illinois @ Central Michigan 7 PM CSD.TV
Indiana State @ Eastern Michigan 7 PM CSD.TV
Vanderbilt @ Miami (OH) 7:30 ESPNU
Troy @ Middle Tenn. St. 7:30 ESPN+
Eastern Kentucky @ Cincinnati 7:30 CBSCS XXL
Hofstra @ Connecticut 7:30 ESPN+
Jacksonville State @ Georgia Tech 7:30 ESPN360
Charleston Southern @ Miami (FL) 7:30 ESPN360
NC State @ South Carolina 8 PM ESPN
Wake Forest @ Baylor 8 PM FSN
South Dakota State @ Iowa State 8 PM FCS
Oregon State @ Stanford 9 PM ESPN2
Friday
Temple @ Army 7 PM ESPN Classic
SMU @ Rice 8 PM ESPN
Saturday’s HD Games
Virginia Tech v. East Carolina Noon ESPN
Bowling Green @ Pittsburgh Noon ESPNU
Syracuse @ Northwestern Noon ESPN2
Youngstown State @ Ohio State Noon BTN
Coastal Carolina @ Penn State Noon BTN
Maine @ Iowa Noon BTN
Hawaii @ Florida 12:30 R’Com/Yahoo
Utah @ Michigan 3:30 ABC/ESPN2
Oklahoma State v. Washington State 3:30 FSN
Towson @ Navy 3:30 CBS CS
Delaware @ Maryland 3:45 ESPNU
Mississippi State @ Louisiana Tech 6:45 ESPN2
Northern Illinois @ Minnesota 7 PM BTN
Boston College v. Kent State 7:30 ESPNU
Alabama v. Clemson 8 PM ABC
Michigan State @ California 8 PM ABC
Washington @ Oregon 7 PT FSN
Other Saturday Games
Western Kentucky @ Indiana Noon BTN
Akron @ Wisconsin Noon BTN
Ohio @ Wyoming 2 PM mtn.
Southern Utah @ Air Force 2 PM
Villanova @ West Virginia 3:30 ESPN+
Tulsa @ UAB 4 PM
Illinois State @ Marshall 4:30
TCU @ New Mexico 6 PM VS.
McNeese State @ North Carolina 6 PM
South Carolina State @ Central Florida 6 PM
Northern Iowa @ BYU 6 PM mtn.
Louisiana-Monroe @ Auburn 7 PM ESPN360
Florida International @ Kansas 7 PM
Memphis @ Mississippi 7 PM
Western Michigan @ Nebraska 7 PM PPV
Louisiana-Lafayette @ Southern Miss 7 PM CBSCS XXL
Florida Atlantic @ Texas 7 PM PPV
Arkansas State @ Texas A&M 7 PM
James Madison @ Duke 7 PM ACC Select
Western Illinois @ Arkansas 7 PM
Southern @ Houston 7 PM
Chattanooga @ Oklahoma 7 PM PPV
Eastern Washington @ Texas Tech 7 PM
North Texas @ Kansas State 7 PM
Tennessee-Martin @ South Florida 7:30 ESPN+
Idaho State @ Boise State 8 PM ESPN360
UC Davis @ San Jose State 8 PM CSD.TV
Grambling @ Nevada 9 PM CSD.TV
Cal Poly @ San Diego State 9:30
Idaho @ Arizona 7 PT
Utah State @ UNLV 7 PT
Northern Arizona @ Arizona State 7 PT FCS
Sunday
Kentucky @ Louisville 3:30 ESPN
Colorado State v. Colorado 7:30 FSN
Labor Day
Fresno State @ Rutgers 4 PM ESPN
Tennessee @ UCLA 8 PM ESPN

Can you feel the excitement?

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Can you feel the excitement? College football season is about to start! Football season – pro and college – is always momentous here on Da Blog. Before my recent webcomics-driven popularity (well, sort of), quite a few people were attracted to Da Blog by my Sunday Night Football predictions. Soon, Da Blog will be taken over by football, especially on Mondays, as my various football-related projects kick into gear. As such, my football hub is all set up for the new season.

The College Football Lineal Title – won by any team that defeated the last champion – will soon take over Da Blog. I made some changes: the Princeton Title is now the Princeton-Yale Title (and I could call it the Walter Camp Memorial Title), reflecting their shared dominance over the early days of college football, and while the 2004 Auburn and Utah titles were unified in last year’s Sugar Bowl, we got a new split title as none of last year’s title holders made the BCS Title Game. Also, every title now has a field listing each team’s next title defense. Missouri and USC are the only two teams with any real shot at losing their titles in Week 1, as Georgia and LSU play 1-AA (oops, “Championship Subdivision”) teams, but the 2004 Auburn-Utah and 2008 BCS titles are most likely to be unified – unless Missouri loses to Illinois and USC loses to Ohio State. (And I said that about the Princeton and Auburn titles last year, because of the same conference.) There’s an NFL analog as well, but it’s never had more than one dissenting title at a time, and there’s no split title this year.

Then there’s my College Football Rankings, my personal, non-proprietary computer rankings that aim to strip out all the bias and distrust and bring some clarity to the world of college football. The ranking formula is unchanged since last year, despite my being tempted to change the C Rating calculation from being based on conference ratings to being based on B Ratings of opponents (a change you’ll probably see next year). The conference layout of college football is also unchanged from last year, as is the fact that you won’t see any rankings until after Week 4, so the only thing different from this description is that OT games are considered to have a margin of victory of 0; the only difference between the winner and loser is being recorded as a winner and loser. That is also equivalent to a score ratio (described at the link) of 0, which gets averaged in A Rating as .5, and OT games give B Points similar to a I-AA game: only the home field modifier regardless of outcome. As exciting as college football OT is, it’s a joke and has nothing whatsoever to do with the actual play of the game. It’s more of a skills competition, akin to penalty kicks in soccer. If drives occurred the way they do in actual play, as opposed to starting within field goal range, I might give it more weight.

Next week I’ll talk about the NFL Lineal Title and talk more about the SuperPower ranking concept and why I’m not doing it this year. And tomorrow I’ve got another new college football feature.

Why I haven’t put up the results of the Golden Bowl (and a few other news and notes)

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Some of you may have noticed that I haven’t posted the results of the first Golden Bowl between LSU and USC, and it’s for the same reason I decided to drop the SuperPower Rankings. The Golden Bowl tournament turned out to be a lot less fun than I had hoped.

For almost every game, I had to pore over the numbers and probably reached a lot of wrong conclusions. I found myself breathing sighs of relief when the two people who voted on the second and third rounds agreed. It wasn’t as time consuming as the SuperPower Rankings but it left me with a sense of dread entering each round.

I had been planning on having a grandiose, John-Facenda-esque description of the Golden Bowl, but I barely managed to work up the knowledge or desire to write any description at all throughout the tournament. I have a feeling I would have fallen well short. Not only is a college football playoff far from an original idea, but others are doing much of what I intended to do a lot better than I would have.

That said, unlike the SuperPower Rankings, I’m still doing this next year. I like the Golden Bowl name, I’m hoping Da Blog grows enough in the next year that I won’t have to break ties at all, and I feel that a lot of simulated playoffs or proposed brackets blindly follow the BCS standings. I’ve heard it argued that a plus-one system would have ignored Georgia or USC in favor of Virginia Tech or Oklahoma; what that ignores is that a plus one would have forced the pollsters to pay more attention to the top four the way they pay attention to the top two now, which likely means Georgia would have gotten past V-Tech or the Sooners, since they arguably had a stronger case for a national title shot than either. (Yes, I know V-Tech was my number 1 seed.) A true simulated playoffs that follows close to what the reality probably would be should follow the NCAA guidelines.

So, this ends the brief spurt of productivity from Da Blog from football. Sure, we’re a few steps away from the Super Bowl – the Patriots just blew past their 17th team, as reflected on the site – but that’s a fairly small part of what we do around here.

No, don’t run away! Come back! I know a lot of you are here for the football, so what can I do to get you to stick around?

Well, let’s start with my 100 Greatest Movies Project, which has been described in the past on the off chance you came here before it was cool. If you happen to be a fan of the movies, and not just the standard popcorn fare but all the classics from Hollywood’s golden age to the present day, I could use you to explain to the masses why they better recognize. If you want to write tributes and descriptions for Hollywood’s greatest films, let me know in the comments or at mwmailsea at yahoo dot com.

But I have another plan to induce the teeming masses to come here. And stay here. I have plans for a new regular feature that I have high hopes for, one that could potentially attract a much larger audience than what I’ve achieved so far. One that could start as soon as tonight.
What is it? Well, let’s just say you can expect to see a lot of this sometime soon:

The final college football rankings of 2007 (and other musings)

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I’ve kept track of who won my College Football Rankings for three years, counting this year. The first year, the title went to Texas, as my rankings correctly predicted the winner of the national title game. The second year, it went to Louisville as the Big East got disrespected.

This year, West Virginia’s beatdown of Oklahoma threatened to topple them, but for two out of three years, the BCS and my rankings agree on who is the true national champion: LSU.

Longtime readers know that I have, on occasion, remarked on the standing of professional sports leagues and their market penetration, this being an example. I’ve realized that I haven’t had any words on Seattle’s long-time-coming MLS team, which will result in an uneven distribution of teams between Eastern and Western conferences. Seattle bypassed Philadelphia, Atlanta, Detroit, Phoenix, and former MLS home Tampa Bay to put the league’s 15th team in the #14 media market. But being a Seattleite myself, and especially being the son of a soccer fanatic, I’m actually a little surprised MLS didn’t come here sooner – this area is one of soccer’s few homes to truly devoted fans, and MLS is sure to carve a niche should the Sonics move. It’s like having a hockey team in Buffalo – there aren’t going to be a lot of people, but boy will they be devoted. The only possible objection I’d have is that MLS didn’t try to re-establish itself in the South, especially with the WNBA putting a team in Atlanta. But I’m sure they’ll do that in a matter of years to put the league at a nice, round 16 teams.

By the 2000 definition, Philadelphia, Detroit, Atlanta, and Miami are the only larger metro areas without an MLS team. I erred on my earlier post on the Atlanta WNBA team, where I said that Seattle had been the largest metro area with a WNBA team but no MLS team; not only does that honor also go to Detroit, but Detroit wasn’t even dethroned by Atlanta. Phoenix would have inherited that crown had I been right.

The 2008 Golden Bowl – Setup

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Once again, I had one easy selection and one in which I had to make the tiebreaker:

LSU v. USC
Once again, what home field gave to Georgia in the Capital One Bowl, it took away in the Rose Bowl. A ten-point win for USC gives the Men of Troy a game… has it really been five years in the making? Yes, it’s exactly the same national championship game we thought we’d get at the start of the season, but how we got here is another matter entirely.

Simply put, this is a battle between the solid LSU offense, keyed by a strong running attack… and one of the toughest defenses in the country.

But LSU is no slouch of a defense. In total yards allowed, it’s third and USC is second. If the old adage – “defense wins championships” – is true, this game will certainly prove it. And perhaps the only reason LSU trails USC is because LSU had to come out of the SEC… not to mention its high-powered offense… and the game, like the real national championship game, is in New Orleans…

Polls close 8 PM PST on Monday.

Golden Bowl Tournament Semifinals

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I only had to make decisions on two races, and only then because the vote (two for each match) split.

LSU v. Oklahoma (Sugar Bowl)
The mass of red in the stands of the Cotton Bowl turn the tide when a late comeback attempt by the Hokies ends just short of the first-down marker on fourth down. But what relative home field giveth, it can also taketh away. The and #12 offenses in the country promise to light up the scoreboard – but not if the and #20 defenses (the latter of which gives up the third-fewest yards per game) have anything to say about it. LSU relies on its #12 rushing attack, but it will have to contend with the run defense of the Sooners. Oklahoma is more balanced, with a #18 rushing game and #26 passing game, but LSU is #18 and #17 at stopping the run and pass, respectively. It’s like they’re set up to counter each other!

Georgia v. USC (Rose Bowl)
Ohio State gets a surprise from a Georgia team that comes ready to match them on defense, as the Buckeye offense is exposed in a tight 7-6 Georgia victory that ends on an interception by the Bulldog defense snuffing a late comeback attempt. Things don’t get any easier for the Bulldogs, as they now have to travel far from home to play a team that some say should be seeded a lot higher. USC’s defense is not much worse than Ohio State’s – fourth in points, second in total yardage, eighth in passing defense, fourth in run defense – but it also does not have that great an offense, and if Georgia can handle Ohio State they can handle USC. As with Ohio State, USC’s offensive strength comes on the run.

All polls expire New Year’s Day at 5pm PT.

Golden Bowl Tournament Quarterfinals

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At least I got any votes at all, but I got a grand total of two total votes on the poll, so I had to make decisions on the other six matchups myself.

Virginia Tech v. Oklahoma (Cotton Bowl)
In a tight contest, Oklahoma survives by the seat of their pants after stalling a late comeback attempt by the Mountaineers. Now it comes down to a battle between and in rushing defense. The marquee matchup to watch is when the Sooners have the ball, as the offense goes against the defense in points put up.

Georgia v. Ohio State (Capital One Bowl)
The Buckeyes and Tigers have a tight, low-scoring classic, as Missouri manages to contain the Buckeye running game enough to keep them in it. The Buckeyes just barely hang on for the 10-7 victory. Being a matchup between two of the most storied college football teams in the country, this game sells itself, but Georgia will now learn in a hurry just how difficult it can be to get past one of the strongest defenses in the country. Georgia does have a fairly stout defense of its own, though, and on offense, both teams’ strength lie in their respective running games. That means the matchup will focus on Chris Wells v. Knowshon Moreno.

Kansas v. USC (Fiesta Bowl)
Todd Reesing has a career day against the Knights of UCF and gives Kansas the trip to the second round they need. Meanwhile, USC puts up points in bunches and pulls off a 28-17 victory over the Eagles on the road. Now they play much closer to home against the Jayhawks, in another game that will rely much more on the arm of John David Booty than on the running game. Reesing and the #14 passing attack will have their hands full with USC’s passing defense. Clearly, the Jayhawks aren’t playing cupcakes anymore!

LSU v. BYU (Orange Bowl)
A last-second field goal gives LSU a 44-42 win over the Warriors, but Florida is not so lucky. I probably should have mentioned this at the Selection Show, but we’re assuming that all players’ injury situations are the way they would be as of the close of voting, not at full strength. Seeing Tim Tebow’s arm in a cast at the Heisman presentation, I realized he would have been lucky to play at all. Without Tebow, the Gators go down in defeat, and BYU doesn’t have to leave the state for its next game. LSU is #12 in rushing offense and #12 in points put up, but BYU is in points allowed, in total yards allowed, and in rushing yards allowed. BYU is in passing offense and #15 in total yardage, but LSU is in yards allowed and #16 in passing yardage, not to mention #18 in rushing yards allowed. It’s a veritable stat-a-palooza!

All polls expire in TWO weeks at 5 pm PT.

New rankings and other errata

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You know what I just realized? The 2004 Auburn and Utah titles are going to be unified at the Sugar Bowl. Meanwhile, the BCS Title Game won’t involve an undefeated team and neither team holds any lineal title. Arkansas will defend its Princeton Title at the Cotton Bowl (“Just a few days ago, Missouri was playing for a spot in the BCS Championship game. While unsuccessful in that match, they did manage to get into another National Championship Game,” writes HeavyweightFootballChamps.com), and Illinois will defend the 2007 Boise State title in the Rose Bowl. I’m not sure if I should create a new lineal title or not. Heaven knows that both the Princeton and 2004 Auburn titles managed to stay in the SEC all year without being unified, so if Ohio State and Illinois both win their conferences, there’s no guarantee any imaginary “2007 BCS Championship” title would be instantly unified with 2007 Boise State. If LSU wins, and the two SEC titleholders win their bowls, it’s a lot less likely that LSU will completely escape winning a lineal title, or at least its lineage escaping being unified with one.

On the other hand, they may be being forced into going 12 rounds, but nothing’s stopping the Patriots and its run with the NFL Lineal Title, as shown by the latest logo to be X’ed out. But there are definitely concerns. This is now two straight weeks the Pats have been taken to the wire… by a mediocre team. The Steelers are no mediocre team. The Pats’ struggles have shown their defense to be porous against the run, and the Steelers have Willie Parker. And the New Steel Curtain just might be up to the task of stopping Tom Brady.

So the Steelers have no chance.

Maybe I’ve been watching too much wrestling, but New England is going to basically crush the Steelers – and I had been thinking about picking the Steelers just to stop the winning at some point. The point spread, I’ve heard, is -10 New England; I am guaranteeing that the Pats are going to cover and win by at least that much, or I don’t know what I’ll do. Maybe you could suggest something.

Other news and notes:

  • WHY do people keep hyping the fall of the Lions as some sort of “return to reality”? ALL FOUR TEAMS THEY’VE LOST TO IN THIS STREAK ARE LEGIT PLAYOFF CONTENDERS, EVEN THE CARDINALS! No wonder the college football polls don’t take strength of schedule into account (unless it helps them hose a non-BCS team), because no one else in any sport does either! Granted, you can say the same thing about the remaining four opponents, but I still believe in the 10-win guarantee, I’m sticking with it to the end, and win or lose I’m still picking the Lions over the Chargers and Chiefs.
  • It’s Chicago’s turn to win this week. And I’m picking the Redskins to lose for the rest of the season. Exactly what line has the Redskins as a favorite? The Redskins do have the SuperPower Ranking edge, but only barely, so no Upset Special.
  • Picking Houston over Tampa Bay at home as the Upset Special, as the Bucs may be the creation of a weak schedule. A second upset special has the Cardinals beating the Seahawks, as I’m taking that stat from last time and picking the Cards over all >.500 teams (and likely making that the, or at least an, Upset Special) and against them when facing a <.500 team. I might - might – make an exception for the Pats or Dolphins.