Sports TV Business

PT Rnk		MM Rnk		TD Rnk			Nov Distr. (000)	PT Vwr (000)	LW/LY	TD Vwr (000)	TD HH	TD Vwr LW/LY	MM Vwr (000)	MM HH
1	=	1	=	1	=		97370	3060	-12%	1161	0.8	-2%	624	0.5
	=				=		84%	3060	-14%	1161	-3%	-10%	624	-5%
2	+1	2	=	2	+1		97407	656	+70%	307	0.2	+26%	249	0.2
	=				=		84%	656	+32%	307	+19%	+5%	249	+9%
3	-1	3	=	3	-1		72066	206	-84%	135	0.1	-61%	115	0.1
	+1				=		62%	278	+17%	182	-55%	-11%	155	-15%
5	+2	6	+4	4	+3		74882	157	+17%	85	0.1	+34%	46	0.0
	=				+2		65%	204	+1%	111	+51%	+31%	60	+31%
4	+1	7	=	5	-1		78139	187	+11%	76	0.0	-8%	45	0.0
	+5				+3		67%	233	+217%	95	-1%	+81%	56	+2%
6	-2	5	+2	6	-1		59078	153	-27%	68	0.0	-6%	49	0.0
	-3				-1		51%	252	-29%	112	-7%	-7%	81	+11%
8	=	4	+2	7	+2		74685	106	-10%	62	0.0	+6%	57	0.1
	=				=		64%	138	+22%	81	+17%	+13%	74	+24%
9	=	8	-4	8	=		81751	104	+17%	53	0.0	-13%	43	0.0
	-2				+1		71%	124	+13%	64	-18%	+37%	51	-17%
7	-1	9	=	9	-3		88556	144	-7%	52	0.0	-26%	37	0.0
	-1				-5		76%	158	+14%	57	-43%	-33%	41	+3%
10	=	10	-5	10	=		70036	53	-26%	36	0.0	-31%	33	0.0
	+1				=		60%	74	+56%	50	-62%	+30%	46	-31%

I’ve added a new metric of my own devising to the table above, which I call the median minute, and represents a crude attempt at measuring the viewership level at which half the minutes of the week are above that point and half below. I think this better represents the top-to-bottom health of a network, especially its studio shows, compared to the primetime and total day metrics that can be unduly influenced by live events. Generally, you would expect that, while the primetime viewership is usually higher than the total day viewership, the median minute is the reverse (and more reliably so), and a network that ranks higher in primetime than in total day will rank lower in median minute than total day and vice versa. Because I’m calculating median minute entirely on my own, comparisons to a year ago will not be available at first.

Also, when I’m taking the average of a repeated studio show and the result comes out to something with a .5 at the end, I’m going to mark it by including a “½” in the recorded number, rather than blindly rounding up as normal rounding rules would suggest, because it’s impossible for me to know what side of the line the average would actually be on. Finally, because a substantial number of (especially ESPN) studio shows took the holidays off, I may skip the next two weeks in order to catch up.

All numbers are in thousands of viewers and are from Son of the Bronx.

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PT Rnk		TD Rnk			Nov Distr. (000)	PT Vwr (000)	LW/LY	TD Vwr (000)	TD HH	TD Vwr LW/LY
1	=	1	=		97370	3426	-2%	1177	0.8	-6%
	=		=		84%	3426	+2%	1177	-4%	+1%
3	-1	2	=		97407	541	-27%	288	0.2	-21%
	=		+1		84%	541	+27%	287	-15%	+6%
2	+8	3	+1		72066	717	+2290%	224	0.2	+109%
	=		-1		62%	969	-34%	303	+80%	-26%
6	+2	4	+5		81751	149	+119%	81	0.1	+74%
	+2		+4		71%	177	+113%	96	+219%	+93%
6	=	5	=		78139	149	+7%	79	0.0	-9%
	+3		+4		67%	186	+122%	99	-8%	+94%
4	=	6	+1		59078	220	+29%	75	0.0	+7%
	=		-1		51%	363	+22%	123	+8%	+13%
5	-2	7	-4		88556	186	-64%	70	0.0	-64%
	+1		-1		76%	205	+74%	77	-67%	+14%
8	-3	8	-2		74882	91	-43%	69	0.0	-21%
	-3		-4		65%	118	-37%	89	-16%	-0%
9	-2	9	-1		74685	79	-41%	62	0.0	-6%
	-2		-2		64%	103	-20%	80	+10%	+4%
10	-1	10	=		70036	59	+59%	36	0.0	+25%
	=		=		60%	82	+18%	51		+21%

I decided to do a straight comparison of FS1 studio shows between the week before the Oklahoma-Baylor game and this week, tracking the cumulative effect after two hugely popular games. The general pattern does seem to be one of gaining viewers, though not always in a statistically significant fashion. There’s a lot of noise involved in the numbers of both Crowd Goes Wild and Fox Football Daily, for example; it’s hard to tell how much of CGW’s drop-off is due to the NASCAR season ending leading to an exodus of viewers from NASCAR Race Hub.

A couple of other things stand out to me. First, we have another sign that Fox shouldn’t be too disappointed with Fox College Saturday, as it’s beating all the weekday afternoon shows and all of FSL’s lead-in-independent averages. Second, in both of these weeks Fox NFL Kickoff didn’t have NASCAR RaceDay as a lead-in and still did over 100,000 viewers, blowing away any other non-NASCAR studio show and being a huge standout for FS1. Considering the numbers ESPN and NFL Network get for NFL Insiders, NFL Live, Around the League, and NFL Total Access compared to NFL Matchup, Fantasy Football Now, and NFL Gameday First, Fox Football Daily should be doing a lot better than it is. If I don’t see some marked improvement in its numbers by the end of 2013 I’ll be left with the conclusion that Fox should consider tinkering with its timeslot. Putting it at 5 ET, against ATH and PTI, or 4 ET, against NFL Live, are probably bad ideas. Is the midnight ET airing, where it does much better than the first-run airings earlier in the day (and where it did nearly as well as Fox NFL Kickoff Wednesday), a test run for moving it there permanently?

All numbers are in thousands of viewers and are from Son of the Bronx.

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PT Rnk		TD Rnk			Nov Distr. (000)	PT Vwr (000)	LW/LY	TD Vwr (000)	TD HH	TD Vwr LW/LY
1	=	1	=		97370	3513	+11%	1254	0.9	+5%
	=		=		84%	3513	+30%	1254	+3%	+15%
2	+1	2	=		97407	745	+6%	363	0.3	+8%
	+1		+1		84%	745	+38%	363	+6%	+34%
3	+4	3	+3		88556	513	+277%	192	0.1	+153%
	+2		+2		76%	564	+274%	211	+147%	+159%
10	-8	4	-1		72066	30	-97%	107	0.1	-63%
	-8		-2		62%	41	-97%	145	-53%	-63%
6	-1	5	=		78139	139	-22%	87	0.0	+6%
	+3		+4		67%	173	+96%	108	-5%	+123%
5	-1	6	-2		74882	160	-30%	87	0.1	-21%
	+1		=		65%	208	+27%	113	-14%	+34%
4	+2	7	+1		59078	171	+16%	70	0.0	+21%
	=		-3		51%	282	-22%	115	+40%	-9%
7	+1	8	-1		74685	134	+46%	65	0.0	+2%
	+1		-1		64%	175	+79%	85	+0%	+5%
8	+1	9	=		81751	68	-24%	47	0.0	-20%
	-1		-1		71%	81	-20%	55	-50%	-21%
9	+1	10	=		70036	37	-29%	29	0.0	-2%
	+1		=		60%	51	-8%	40	-96%	+32%

We’re waiting another week before chiming in with analysis of the effects of Oklahoma-Baylor and Oregon-Oregon State on FS1 studio show ratings, but there is one thing that FS1 should be very, very concerned about. The Civil War was not only the most-watched show in FS1 history, it also produced the most-watched edition of Fox Sports Live. But said edition of FSL only beat the one from launch night – a record the post-Oklahoma-Baylor edition failed to break – by about 50,000 viewers. On launch night, FSL’s retention was 26.7%. Its Oklahoma/Baylor retention? Only 16.2%. FSL’s post-Civil War retention rebounded to 24%, and earlier in the week on Monday FSL kept almost all of its college basketball lead-in, but the folks at FS1 should still keep a close eye on how FSL does going forward, and don’t be afraid to conclude that some of it may not be working.

(Obviously, don’t read too much into FS1 ranking ahead of NFL Network in a week in which NFLN didn’t have a Thursday Night game.)

All numbers are in thousands of viewers and are from Son of the Bronx.

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PT Rnk		TD Rnk			Nov Distr. (000)	PT Vwr (000)	LW/LY	TD Vwr (000)	TD HH	TD Vwr LW/LY
1	=	1	=		97370	3177	-8%	1195	0.8	-14%
	=		=		84%	3177	-1%	1195	-14%	-0%
3	=	2	=		97407	702	-20%	337	0.2	-15%
	-1		=		84%	702	+49%	337	-14%	+3%
2	=	3	=		72066	1101	+15%	287	0.2	+9%
	+5		=		62%	1488	+841%	388	+2%	+146%
4	+2	4	+1		74882	230	+50%	111	0.1	+32%
	+2		+2		65%	299	+70%	144	+45%	+40%
5	=	5	+1		78139	179	-7%	82	0.0	+21%
	-2		+3		67%	223	+3%	102	+33%	+26%
7	-3	6	-2		88556	136	-53%	76	0.0	-33%
	-2		-2		76%	150	0%	83	-27%	-19%
8	=	7	=		74685	92	+11%	64	0.0	+3%
	=		=		64%	120	-9%	84	-1%	-11%
6	+1	8	+1		59078	148	+68%	58	0.0	+6%
	-2		-3		51%	244	-9%	96	+10%	-28%
9	=	9	-1		81751	90	+18%	58	0.0	-4%
	=		=		71%	107	+30%	69	-0%	+48%
10	=	10	=		70036	52	+44%	30	0.0	+35%
	+1		+1		60%	72	+100%	41	+102%	+65%

I’ve introduced a new table below, tracking the retention for SportsCenter, Olbermann, and Fox Sports Live leading out of sports events. Ratings for these shows tend to be very lead-in dependent, and you generally expect the ratings to get bigger as the lead-in gets bigger. With retention, you expect the opposite: the smaller the lead-in, the bigger the retention as more people are watching specifically for that show. That’s why the Monday SportsCenter after Monday Night Football has poor retention compared to SportsCenters later in the week despite a massive audience. (This is also going to be the main place for me to list College Football Final and select other weekly ESPN2 shows. If a show actually has more viewers than its lead-in, I list the retention as “up” to signify that viewership went “up” and also that retention tells us little in this case.)

Other than MNF, SportsCenter can usually expect to retain around two-thirds of its lead-in audience. I have a small sample size, but what evidence I do have suggests Olbermann’s retention is much lower. Then there’s Fox Sports Live; with college basketball or weak college football as a lead-in it can achieve SportsCenter-esque retention, but it really doesn’t take much for FSL to retain just a fifth to a quarter of its lead-in; Wednesday’s FSL after the Ultimate Fighter has worse retention than the following day’s Olbermann, despite Olbermann having fewer raw viewers. Perhaps most distressingly, even a re-air of the Ultimate Fighter on Sunday night bleeds a ton of viewers when FSL comes on to just 9,000 viewers.

All numbers are in thousands of viewers and are from Son of the Bronx.

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PT Rnk		TD Rnk			Nov Distr. (000)	PT Vwr (000)	LW/LY	TD Vwr (000)	TD HH	TD Vwr LW/LY
1	=	1	=		97370	3470	-3%	1383	1.0	-4%
	=		=		84%	3470	+5%	1383	-3%	+6%
3	+1	2	=		97407	877	+57%	397	0.3	+16%
	=		=		84%	877	+99%	397	+15%	+20%
2	=	3	=		72066	959	+1%	264	0.2	-3%
	=		=		62%	1296	+12%	357	-4%	+5%
4	-1	4	=		88556	289	-54%	113	0.1	-29%
	=		=		76%	318	+29%	125	-39%	-11%
6	+1	5	+2		74882	153	+43%	83	0.0	+17%
	-1		=		65%	199	-18%	109	+24%	-7%
5	+1	6	-1		78139	193	+30%	68	0.0	-14%
	+3		+2		67%	240	+133%	85	-1%	+58%
8	+1	7	+2		74685	83	-13%	62	0.0	-3%
	-1		-1		64%	108	-7%	81	+9%	-23%
9	-1	8	=		81751	76	-28%	60	0.0	-15%
	=		+1		71%	91	+12%	72	-26%	+44%
7	-2	9	-3		59078	88	-48%	55	0.0	-25%
	-1		-2		51%	145	-25%	90	-25%	-18%
10	=	10	=		70036	36	+33%	22	0.0	+4%
	=		=		60%	50	+6%	31		-9%

Because I screwed up and forgot how I did week-to-week comparisons for FS1 studio shows last time, and because I have another big game coming up with its own attendant potential effects on FS1 ratings, I’m going to do at least two more Scorecards and do four weeks’ worth of comparisons on the second one. However, the overall averages for FS1 this week remain far enough ahead of any competitors that aren’t ESPN, ESPN2, or NFL Network to be very encouraging.

I’m so late that I’ve integrated the November viewership numbers into the chart above, complete with ESPN2 being in more households than ESPN. I can actually see how some small cable systems might offer ESPN2 to subscribers but not ESPN, but in any case ESPN dismisses this as an anomaly and the result of “a small number of misclassified homes”. I would expect ESPN2 to take a “small” but significant drop in future months if this were fixed, but so far as I can tell SportsBusiness Daily has not published December numbers at all. In any case, ESPN and ESPN2 have been running close enough to neck-in-neck that it doesn’t much matter, and I’m going to keep listing ESPN ahead of ESPN2 in the charts. (ESPNU also seems to have leapfrogged ESPNEWS, but I’m too lazy to reverse their positions on the charts they both appear on, at least this week. Besides, I don’t know if that’ll hold in future months.)

All numbers are in thousands of viewers and are from Son of the Bronx.

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Here’s the updated list of the most-viewed programs in Fox Sports 1 history through November 10 after Oklahoma-Baylor set the new record this week:

Sports Ratings Highlights for Week of October 14-20

Numbers compiled from a variety of sources, including TV by the Numbers, The Futon Critic, Sports Media Watch, and Son of the Bronx.

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