Month: December 2008

2008 Golden Bowl Tournament Selection Show Announcement

by

Welcome to the second annual Selection Show Announcement for the simulated Golden Bowl Tournament – your chance to see what a playoff would be like. If you want a playoff in college football, especially if it was handled by the NCAA, it’ll probably take the form here. Here are the parameters of the tournament:

  • 11 teams are selected from the Conference Champions of all conferences
  • 5 more teams are selected from an at-large pool consisting of all other teams
  • First and second round games on campus sites; semifinals at any two of the Sugar Bowl, Rose Bowl, Orange Bowl, Cotton Bowl, and Capital One Bowl, determined by regional interest (in actuality, it would rotate between the Sugar, Rose, Orange, and either Cotton or Cap One); the National Championship to be held at the Orange Bowl

The conference champions with auto bids are Oklahoma, Florida, Utah, Penn State, Boise State, Cincinnati, Virginia Tech, USC, East Carolina, Buffalo, and Troy. Texas, Texas Tech, Ohio State, Georgia Tech, and Alabama have been selected as at-large teams.

Good luck to all our teams, especially our Number 1 seed, Oklahoma.

Octofinal matchups:

#16 Troy (Sun Belt champion) v. Oklahoma (Big 12 champion)
I really found myself splitting hairs at several places in the seeding process. The first place I did so was: Who should be the No. 1 seed, Florida or Oklahoma? Florida had a worse loss, but because Georgia and Florida State found themselves in the top ten of the RPI, Florida ended up looking like it had the better wins and Oklahoma losing to Texas suddenly looked like they weren’t getting the job done against a team in the field. This was arguably the least substantive point of stress, because if the two teams meet in the Golden Bowl it won’t matter what order they’re seeded in, and I stressed a little over the seeding of 15 and 16 as well. I went with Oklahoma to postpone any Big 12 or SEC rematch until the Golden Bowl. Keyed by Heisman hopeful Sam Bradford, Oklahoma’s record-setting offense takes on a Troy team a year removed from being one win away from a fantastic, Sun Belt Championship-winning season, only to see Florida Atlantic snatch it away from them.

#15 Buffalo (MAC champion) v. Florida (SEC champion)
Congratulations, Buffalo, on stopping Ball State’s bid for an undefeated season! Your reward: A chance to try and stop last year’s Heisman winner on offense while also getting past the stifling Gator defense.

#14 East Carolina (C-USA champion) v. Texas (at-large)
East Carolina’s early-season run almost had it bumping up to the 13 seed, but alas, the Pirates will have to settle for a first-round matchup with a Texas team still upset over not getting its chance to play in the Big 12 Title Game. There’s now a way to rebound from that, but Texas will definitely get more of a challenge from East Carolina than it would have from Buffalo or Troy. If the Pirates are going to pull off one more upset, its defense will have to stop Heisman hopeful Colt McCoy.

Virginia Tech (ACC champion) v. Alabama (at-large)
V-Tech fans, blame your four losses and the fact that the best team you beat in a true road game was North Carolina, RPI #22. The Hokie defense will be in the spotlight in this one, though when you’re in the SEC you’re bound to have a great defense of your own.

#12 Boise State (WAC champion) v. Penn State (Big Ten champion)
Penn State over USC or Texas Tech? USC I’ll get to; Penn State played a better nonconference schedule than Texas Tech and beat some decent teams on the road. PSU over Texas Tech was a very difficult decision, but the Fighting JoePas might not like coming out on top, because their great defense is now being asked to stop a team hungry to prove they deserve to be undefeated, one with a very high-powered offense – and a defense that gives up fewer points per game than the Nittany Lions.

Georgia Tech (at-large) v. Cincinnati (Big East champion)
Georgia Tech just edged out Oklahoma State for the final at-large, and Pitt had a pretty good resume as well (and the BCS rankings would throw TCU in there for the hell of it), yet G-Tech could have easily passed Ohio State in the seeding. As for Cincy, they played a better nonconference schedule than Texas Tech, have better wins than anyone else that could compete with Texas Tech, and I want to hold off on a Big 12 rematch until the semifinals. The Bearcats have been rotating QBs like there’s no tomorrow, but it’ll be the defense that’ll be tasked to stop the triple-option. A low scoring game probably favors Cincy and its great defense; a high scoring one could portend an upset.

Ohio State (at-large) v. Texas Tech (at-large)
Don’t like this seeding, Red Raider fans? Don’t like having to play a worldbeater in the first round, and potentially Florida in the second? Thank your lucky stars Texas doesn’t get a chance at revenge in the quarters, and next time, keep in mind that in the playoffs, the regular season still matters. Of course, Ohio State is also groaning at trying to stop the amazing combo of Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree, but they have their own offensive force in Terrell Pryor.

USC (Pac-10 champion) v. Utah (Mountain West champion)
Utah, USC, and Ohio State were pretty much all a collective case of splitting hairs. I could have easily justified ranking Ohio State ahead of USC on the grounds that USC’s win over the Buckeyes was in the Coliseum. USC’s problem? Even though they had the best top-to-bottom nonconference schedule of anyone outside the bottom three, Virginia was the best team they beat on the road, and Oregon was the best team they beat not named Ohio State. Oregon also just so happens to be the best team Boise State beat, to put that in perspective. That makes the loss to Oregon State look very concerning. Don’t get too excited by how much the Trojans ran up the score on some bad teams; it wasn’t enough to build their resume. Still, if the Trojan defense can be the squad that allowed the fewest points and yards per game in I-A, they can knock off a potentially questionable Ute offense.

The half of the bracket containing the 1 seed will play in the Rose Bowl for the semifinal; the half of the bracket containing the 2 seed will play in the Sugar Bowl. First-round results from Whatifsports.com coming on Sunday.

Time set for Golden Bowl Selection Show, for real this time, plus Random Internet Discovery

by

And it’s a doozy: 6 AM PT tomorrow morning. I was hoping I could get it in at 6 PM PT tonight, after one of my finals, but I got Distracted ™ and had no chance of getting set up before 6 anyway. I pretty much know two of the first-round matchups at this point, so I only need to finalize the remaining six games, and could work late into the night to do so. (The first stage of the selection process worked pretty much as I expected, with four at-larges being fairly obvious and the fifth being a head-scratcher of relative mediocrity. Ohio State fans may be somewhat disappointed with their seed though.) All eight games will be revealed, at once, at 6 AM PT.

UPDATE: Okay, forget that, it’s delayed again, an unexpected issue came up and I’m in no mood to write it anyway, no later than 2 PM PT.

Also, in place of having a webcomic post tonight, I’m giving you the Random Internet Discovery a day early, with more weird, wild, and wacky art than you can shake a stick at.

The timing of NBC’s Panthers-Giants-to-Sunday-Night announcement is curious. Was NBC and the NFL going to go with some other game if the Bucs had won on Monday night?

Last-Minute Remarks on SNF Week 16 picks

by

Week 16 (December 21):

  • Tentative game: San Diego @ Tampa Bay
  • Prospects: 5-8 @ 9-3? Good lord is this game lopsided.
  • Likely protections: Panthers (9-3)-Giants (11-2) or Eagles (7-5-1)-Redskins (7-6) (FOX) and Steelers-Titans (CBS).
  • “That’s my story and I’m sticking to it”‘s protections: Eagles-Redskins (FOX) and Steelers-Titans (CBS)
  • Other possible games mentioned on Wednesday’s Watch and their records: Cardinals (8-5)-Patriots (8-5), Bills (6-7)-Broncos (8-5), Falcons (8-5)-Vikings (8-5).
  • Impact of Monday Night Football: Affects both the tentative game and the most likely flex game.
  • Analysis: If Panthers-Giants isn’t protected it’s in. If it is, the Falcons did what the other games needed and lost, and things broke down just right for Cardinals-Patriots and Falcons-Vikings to pull even. I give the edge to Falcons-Vikings because they’re more attractive and the Cardinals have locked up the NFC West, so Falcons-Vikings has the edge that both teams have playoff implications.
  • Final prediction: Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants, or if that game is protected, Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings.
  • Current situation: No announcement yet to my knowledge, which is telling. Either NBC is waiting on tonight’s game to tell them whether to go with the Falcons (for whatever reason), or NBC is willing to go someplace other than Panthers-Giants if the Panthers lose.

Who SHOULD be going to which bowls?

by


Based on my College Football Rankings, which I will put up… fairly soon. I hope. The Golden Bowl Selection Show is being delayed to 6 PM PT, maybe even until tomorrow, because my computer abruptly aborted, Excel wasn’t autorecovering the file I was doing my planning on for some reason, and that means I need to go all the way home to transfer back the post-championship-weekend RPI. I’ve selected one at large, have some idea of at least two others, and pretty much know who my top two and bottom three teams will be, if not in what order.

Teams in parenthesis reflect the probability that Boise State won’t be selected by the BCS; asterisks indicate at-large selections. Because of the “winning records before .500” rule, incidentally, Notre Dame will have to settle for one of the –AL spots, probably the Motor City if Boise State doesn’t go to the BCS. All times Eastern.

BOWL  Teams  My Picks  DATE/TIME/CHANNEL 
EagleBank Bowl  ACC   Maryland Dec. 20, 11 a.m. 
Navy  Navy ESPN 
New Mexico  Mountain West   Colorado State Dec. 20, 2:30 p.m. 
WAC   Nevada (Fresno State) ESPN 
St. Petersburg  Big East (#6?)  South Florida Dec. 20, 4:30 p.m. 
Conference USA   Southern Miss ESPN2 
Pioneer Las Vegas  Mountain West TCU Dec. 20, 8 p.m. 
Pac-10 (/5)  California or Oregon State ESPN 
R+L Carriers New Orleans  C-USA (Southern Miss rates higher but is 6-6) Rice Dec. 21, 8:15 p.m. 
Sun Belt   Troy ESPN 
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia  Mountain West   BYU Dec. 23, 8 p.m.
Pac-10 (WAC if none) Louisiana Tech (Nevada) ESPN 
Sheraton Hawaii  WAC (gen. Hawaii)  Hawaii Dec. 24, 8 p.m. 
Pac-10 (C-USA if none) Northern Illinois* ESPN 
Motor City  MAC /2  Ball State Dec. 26, 8 p.m. 
Big Ten   Minnesota (Louisiana Tech*) ESPN 
Meineke Car Care  ACC /6/7 (gen. 6)  Clemson Dec. 27, 1 p.m. 
Big East   West Virginia ESPN
Champs Sports  ACC   Georgia Tech Dec. 27, 4:30 p.m. 
Big Ten #(4/)5 Northwestern (Wisconsin) ESPN
Emerald  Pac-10 #(4/)5  Oregon State or California Dec. 27, 8 p.m. 
ACC /6/7 (gen. 7)  Miami (FL) ESPN
Independence  SEC (or Sun Belt; Fla. Atlantic technically rates higher) Louisiana-Lafayette Dec. 28, 8:15 p.m. 
Big 12   Central Michigan* ESPN
Papajohns.com  Big East (#5?)  Connecticut Dec. 29, 3 p.m. 
SEC (Sun Belt if none) Arkansas State ESPN
Valero Alamo  Big Ten (/5) Mich. State (Northwestern) Dec. 29, 8 p.m. 
Big 12 /5 Nebraska ESPN
Roady’s Humanitarian  WAC (gen. BSU)  Fresno State (Boise State) Dec. 30, 4:30 p.m. 
ACC   Wake Forest ESPN
Texas  Big 12   Bowling Green* Dec. 30, 8 p.m. 
Conference USA   Memphis NFL Network
Pacific Life Holiday  Big 12   Missouri Dec. 30, 8 p.m. 
Pac-10   Oregon ESPN 
Bell Helicopter Armed Forces  Conference USA ?  Houston Dec. 31, Noon 
Mountain West   Air Force ESPN 
Brut Sun  Pac-10   Arizona Dec. 31, 2 p.m. 
Big 12 /Big East Pittsburgh CBS 
Gaylord Hotels Music City  SEC /7 (Team’s Pref.)  Vanderbilt Dec. 31, 3:30 p.m. 
ACC /6/7 (gen. 5; must pick Chmp. Gm. Loser if >8 wins) Boston College ESPN 
Insight  Big 12   Kansas Dec. 31, 5:30 p.m. 
Big Ten   Wisconsin (Minnesota) NFL Network 
Chick-fil-A  SEC   LSU Dec. 31, 7:30 p.m. 
ACC   North Carolina ESPN 
Outback  SEC /4 (East)  South Carolina Jan. 1, 2009, 11 a.m. 
Big Ten   Iowa (Michigan State) ESPN 
Capital One  Big Ten   Ohio State (Iowa) Jan. 1, 2009, 1 p.m.
SEC   Georgia ABC 
Konica Minolta Gator  Big 12 /Big East   Oklahoma State Jan. 1, 2009, 1 p.m. 
ACC   Florida State CBS 
Rose Bowl Game Presented by Citi  BCS (Big Ten )  Penn State Jan. 1, 2009, 4:30 p.m.
BCS (Pac-10 )  USC ABC 
FedEx Orange  BCS  Cincinnati Jan. 1, 2009, 8:30 p.m. 
BCS (ACC )  Virginia Tech FOX 
AT&T Cotton  Big 12   Texas Tech Jan. 2, 2009, 2 p.m. 
SEC /4 (West)  Mississippi FOX 
AutoZone Liberty  SEC /7 (Team’s Pref.)  Kentucky Jan. 2, 2009, 5 p.m. 
Conference USA   East Carolina ESPN 
Allstate Sugar  BCS  Utah (Ohio State) Jan. 2, 2009, 8 p.m. 
BCS (SEC )  Boise State (Alabama) FOX 
International  Big East (#4?)  Rutgers Jan. 3, 2009, Noon 
MAC   Western Michigan ESPN2 
Tostitos Fiesta BCS  Alabama (Utah) Jan. 5, 2009, 8 p.m. 
BCS (Big 12 )  Texas FOX 
GMAC  Conference USA   Tulsa Jan. 6, 2009, 8 p.m. 
MAC /2  Buffalo ESPN 
FedEx BCS National Championship Game  BCS   Florida Jan. 8, 2009, 8 p.m. 
BCS   Oklahoma FOX 

I think I’m done with Sports Watcher for the foreseeable future…

by

According to Wikipedia, MegaVideo wants to replace YouTube as THE place to get video online. However, it restricts how much video you can view before having to wait an hour if you’re not a paying member. And it does this based on people’s IP addresses, not by putting a cookie on your computer or even by tracking non-paying members separately.

If you’re creating a situation where people on a shared network using one IP address – say, at a school, or at a WiFi cafe – can be cut out through no fault of their own, and end up competing to get the most video out of the IP address’s 72 minutes, you’re going to have a hard time going after YouTube.

College Football Schedule: Week 15

by

The much-delayed college football rankings are up. I’ve also corrected an error and listed the correct start time of the SEC Title Game. All times Eastern.

Top 25 Games
*Florida v. *Alabama 4 PM CBS
*Oklahoma @ Missouri 8 PM ABC
USC @ UCLA 4:30 ABC
Ball State v. Buffalo 8 PM FR ESPN2
East Carolina @ #23 Tulsa Noon ESPN2
Boston College v. Virginia Tech 1 PM ABC
This Week’s Other HD Games
Louisville @ Rutgers 7:30 TH ESPN
Navy v. Army Noon CBS
Pittsburgh @ Connecticut Noon ESPN
Washington @ California 3 PM FSN
Arizona State @ Arizona 8 PM ESPN
South Florida @ West Virginia 8 PM ESPN2
Cincinnati @ Hawaii 8:30PT ESPN2
Sun Belt
Middle Tenn. St. @ Louisiana-Lafayette 7 PM WE ESPN+
Arkansas State @ Troy 7 PM ESPN+
Western Kentucky @ Florida International 7 PM

As promised a significantly longer time ago than I would have hoped…

by
Why should we put up with the reality presented to us by the BCS? A 16-team playoff with all conference champions can avoid most if not all of the pitfalls BCS backers claim would befall a playoff – especially if the media puts enough of an emphasis on seeding. I’ve heard people say we should top out a playoff at 8 teams and/or keep out the weaker conference champions (just the top 8 teams) in order to keep out teams that don’t deserve to play for a national championship. To which I reply: That’s kind of the point. By dangling the carrot of playing a scrub team that won a scrub conference in the first round, my system (and even an 8-team system with all BCS champions) motivates teams to keep playing even when they’re safely in the field. (It’s a more valid argument with the 8-team version, however, because lower-tier BCS conference champions are still good enough to surprise high seeds – especially overrated high seeds – and with only three rounds, can luck into a national championship, and with only two at-larges and no auto bid for good mid-major teams, they may be keeping out teams that deserve at least a shot.)

Last year, I in fact did conduct a 16-team Golden Bowl playoff, in much the way I imagine the NCAA would. Rather than blindly using the BCS rankings or even my own college football rankings, I used much the same criteria the NCAA uses for the basketball tournament: RPI, quality wins, road record, record entering the playoff, that sort of thing. The result was an odd field, to say the least (Virginia Tech the seed?), caused by most BCS programs’ tendency to schedule nothing but scrub teams in the nonconference schedule. (The ACC, which also produced Boston College as an at-large, was artificially inflated in this system simply by having a high number of high-RPI teams.) Nonetheless, I don’t think I excluded anyone that was considered a plausible candidate for the real-life national championship, with Boston College and maybe Florida the only dodgy candidate in the top 12 or 13 seeds. (This year also produced three viable at-large teams – Texas, Texas Tech, the SEC title game loser – for a five-at-large field, which has me wondering if shrinkage might be feasible.)

However, I made a mistake in having all rounds determined entirely by voting. As I had even fewer readers than I had now, I got basically no votes. Result: I ended up making a lot of painstaking read-throughs of possibly meaningless statistics at Yahoo Sports, which burned me out so bad I never actually did declare the winner of the Golden Bowl Championship. I have more readers now, but most come for the webcomic posts, and even with voting I still have to come up with some concept of how the game would go, which practically means I don’t come up with one. And that doesn’t give you a vivid concept of how a playoff would actually go. It doesn’t make you as excited as a real playoff. No simulated version can, but last year’s model wasn’t even trying.

Instead, I’m using Whatifsports.com to simulate each game – assuming they will have 2008 rosters up by next weekend (by which I mean the weekend of the 14th). Here’s how last year’s Golden Bowl might have gone down.

Also last year, I held first round games on campus sites and subsequent rounds at various other sites. The semifinals went to the Sugar and Rose Bowls, and I deliberately seeded the Big 10 and Pac-10 champions to meet in the semifinals to preserve at least a chance of the traditional matchup. (I may have underseeded USC a bit to make it work.) The quarterfinals went to the Cotton, Capital One, Orange, and Fiesta Bowls.

This year, to better preserve the role of the bowls and further increase the incentive to play for seeding, I’m moving the quarterfinals to campus sites as well, although I’m not convinced about that. The semifinals will still be at bowl sites, and for a while I was tempted to go with a system that would determine which bowls would be the semifinals by which teams made the semifinals. That would be a logistical nightmare and was only ever a sop to the Rose Bowl’s traditional Big Ten-Pac-10 matchup.

The bowls would run alongside the tournament and any teams eliminated in any round would move on to play one more game later on. First-round losers would be dumped into the general bowl pool with teams that did not make the tournament. I’m actually thinking any money they would receive would be the same as any regular season game, with only the stakes increasing its value, thus further encouraging playing for seeding and encouraging more competitive first round games. I’d also delete a week from the season, though I obviously can’t do that here – and I actually like the Pac-10’s switch to a true round-robin format since the 12th game was added – to make it work properly and prevent the Heisman ceremony from going ridiculously late.

Quarterfinal losers would go to one of the BCS bowls: the Sugar, Rose, Cotton, and Orange bowls would rotate between being semifinal games and bowls for BCS losers. I’m leaning towards not going with the Capital One Bowl, despite having a higher payout right now, higher ratings, and a higher SEC tie-in than the Cotton Bowl, because of the Cotton’s now-bastardized tradition and the Cap One’s corporate name, not to mention its proximity to the Orange Bowl. (In fact, because of the weird SEC tie-in structure for the 3 and 4 spots, which bowl I pick has major implications for the SEC tie-in structure at the top.) The Fiesta Bowl I’m reserving for a third-place game, for semifinal losers, but it still rotates with the semifinal bowls for hosting the Golden Bowl.

My work ethic and other projects and obligations permitting, the Second Annual Golden Bowl Selection Show will begin this Sunday at 7 PM ET (4 PM PT). Watch Da Countdown! Next weekend, around the 13th, I’ll post the first round results, along with a revised minor bowl schedule; quarterfinal results will be posted the weekend before Christmas. This timing hopefully avoids finals week for schools which hold finals around this time, which I know is a concern. The semifinals are held around New Year’s Day, along with perfunctory quarterfinal-loser-bowl results, and the Golden Bowl is a week or two later, maybe even as late as MLK weekend or the gap between the NFL conference championships and Super Bowl. (The idea of football being a “one-semester sport” is kind of diluted when the current National Championship Game is held on January 8th. The “gap” may be preferable to avoid conflicting with, say, the Senior Bowl, with two weeks after New Year’s even more preferable.) Fiesta Bowl results would be available anywhere from a week to a day before the Golden Bowl itself.

I’m still kind of tweaking the whole format and I’m getting a MUCH later start on actually figuring out who’s in or out than I’d otherwise like. Still, I hope you have an opinion and you’re ready for the ride…

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 13

by

NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with last season in mind):

  • Begins Sunday of Week 11
  • In effect during Weeks 11-17
  • Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
  • The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET. (Note: Last year, NBC listed a tentative game for Week 17; they are not doing so this year.)
  • The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
  • The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
  • The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night. (Note: Again, excluding Week 17.)
  • Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
  • NFL schedules all games.
  • Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
  • Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and could not protect any games Week 17 last year. Unless I find out otherwise, I’m assuming that’s still the case this year, especially with no tentative game listed Week 17, and that protections were scheduled after Week 4.
  • Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 4 post.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 16):

  • Selected game: Dallas @ Washington.

Week 12 (November 23):

  • Selected game: Indianapolis @ San Diego.

Week 13 (November 30):

  • Selected game: Chicago @ Minnesota.

Week 14 (December 7):

  • Selected game: Washington @ Baltimore.

Week 15 (December 14):

  • Selected game: NY Giants @ Dallas.

Week 16 (December 21):

  • Tentative game: San Diego @ Tampa Bay
  • Prospects: 4-8 @ 9-3? Good lord is this game lopsided.
  • Likely protections: Panthers-Giants or Eagles-Redskins (FOX) and Steelers-Titans (CBS).
  • “That’s my story and I’m sticking to it”‘s protections: Eagles-Redskins (FOX) and Steelers-Titans (CBS)
  • Other possible games: Cardinals-Patriots is still strong and Bills-Broncos and Falcons-Vikings are still at least close. If TMS&ISTI is right all this is moot because the Panthers and Giants would have to collapse to give up the spot (the Panthers did lose this week), but if it was Panthers-Giants protected Eagles-Redskins would be in it as well. Even if Panthers-Giants had been protected, Cardinals-Patriots is a strong enough game it probably would have gotten the spot anyway.
  • Analysis: If Panthers-Giants isn’t protected I might as well pick it now. If it is, there are four games that are very close, and Falcons-Vikings is probably the leader in the clubhouse at 8-4 v. 7-5. Cardinals-Patriots is next at 7-5 @ 7-5, then Eagles-Redskins at 6-5-1 @ 7-5, then Bills-Broncos at 6-6 @ 7-5. For any of these games to have a shot, Panthers-Giants must be protected and the Falcons, at the very least, must lose. A Falcons loss, a Vikings win, and wins by the Cardinals and Patriots would put those two games on even footing; Bills-Broncos needs a perfect scenario (Falcons and Vikings losses, Bills and Broncos wins), but Eagles-Redskins might get close enough to pull a pretty good case that the Eagles should have won “The Tie” and the accounting should be even.

Week 17 (December 28 Playoff Positioning Watch):

  • Note that not only is there no longer an NBC tentative game, there’s no NFL Network game. Apparently the league learned their lesson from last year’s Patriots-Giants debacle.
  • AFC East: Anyone’s game. All four teams within two games of one another, with the Jets leading, the Pats and Dolphins a game back, and the Bills a game behind that. The Pats and Bills play each other, as do the Dolphins and Jets.
  • AFC North: The Steelers and Ravens are the only two teams still in it; Steelers have a one-game edge. The Steelers play the Browns while the Ravens play the Jags.
  • AFC South: The Titans are running away with it, with the Colts the only other team with a shot. No matter the standings, if the Titans remain undefeated Titans-Colts could be a lock.
  • AFC West: Chiefs out, Raiders hanging on by a tiebreaker. Broncos and Chargers the main contenders, and play each other. Hmm. However, the gap is three games, advantage Broncos, and the Raiders are only a game behind the Chargers.
  • AFC Wild Card: The Ravens and Colts would get the nod if the season ended today. The Dolphins and Patriots are a game back, and the Bills are waiting in the wings. Both East games and Titans-Colts are the main AFC contenders. Raiders, Chiefs, Bengals out, Chargers, Jags, Browns need a tiebreaker.
  • NFC East: The Giants have a three-game lead over the Cowboys, with the Redskins hanging on by a tiebreaker and the Eagles out by half a game. The Giants play the Vikings while the Cowboys face the Eagles.
  • NFC North: Vikings lead, Bears a game back, Packers two, Lions out. The Bears play the Texans and the Packers play the Lions, but the Vikings play the Giants.
  • NFC South: Every team still in it, with the Panthers and Bucs leading, the Falcons a game back, and the Saints three back. The Panthers play the Saints, but Tampa Bay plays the Raiders and the Falcons play the Rams.
  • NFC West: The Cardinals are running away with it and the 49ers are the only other team with a shot. Cardinals play the Seahawks. Hardly must-see TV.
  • NFC Wild Card: The Panthers-Bucs loser and either the Cowboys or Falcons would get the nod if the season ended today. Redskins a game back, Eagles 1.5 back, Bears and Saints waiting in the wings. Packers three back, 49ers need a tiebreak. Giants-Vikings, Cowboys-Eagles, and Panthers-Saints are strong games, but that may be it in the NFC and the last one could be fading. Those could be competitive games for the NBC pick, though.

They made it official yesterday: we’ve been in a recession for a year. Will the WNBA survive it?

by

I write this Tuesday night, already tired from my last post and staying up too late the previous night, so I keep it brief.

The Houston Comets are folding – the team with the first four WNBA championships.

The symbolism can’t be good.

The importance in terms of the size of the markets the WNBA is or isn’t in? Philadelphia was always a bigger problem.

The importance in terms of expansion back to 14 teams (again)? Leaving aside the question of whether 14 teams is really a healthy number for the league, there has been some question of playing in Tennessee, but it’s worth noting that going too far east would force the Chicago Sky into the Western Conference. However, a Memphis team could plausibly play in the West, much like the Memphis Grizzlies play in the West. Other Western targets could include a trip up I-45 to Dallas, reviving the idea of a team in Denver, or a real Bay Area team. Other Eastern targets could include reviving a team in Florida or Cleveland, or a Philadelphia or real Boston team.