Morgan Wick

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 10

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NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that even with the bit about the early flexes, this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it still says late games start at 4:15 ET instead of 4:25):

  • Begins Sunday of Week 5
  • In effect during Weeks 5-17
  • Up to 2 games may be flexed into Sunday Night between Weeks 5-10
  • Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
  • The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
  • The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
  • The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
  • The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
  • Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
  • NFL schedules all games.
  • Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
  • Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks starting Week 11, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 in 2006 and 2011, because NBC hosted Christmas night games those years and all the other games were moved to Saturday (and so couldn’t be flexed), but are otherwise protected after Week 5. As I understand it, during the Week 5-10 period the NFL and NBC declare their intention to flex out a game two weeks in advance, at which point CBS and Fox pick one game each to protect.
  • In the past, three teams could appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. I don’t know how the expansion of the Thursday Night schedule affects this, if it does. No team starts the season completely tapped out at any measure; nine teams have five primetime appearances each, but only the Giants, Cowboys, Packers, and Eagles don’t have games in the main flex period, and of those only the Giants don’t have games in the early flex period. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 22):

  • Selected game: Cincinnati @ Arizona.

Week 12 (November 29):

  • Tentative game: New England @ Denver
  • Final prediction (made two weeks ago): New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos. (With the caveat that it’s not clear Peyton Manning will be starting. Still, you don’t want to take the risk of flexing out of this game and then he IS healthy, especially since, as Sunday made clearer than ever, this might be the last Brady v. Manning showdown.)

Week 13 (December 6):

  • Tentative game: Indianapolis @ Pittsburgh
  • Prospects: 4-5 v. 6-4, a rather mediocre game but the Colts still lead the division despite being below .500.
  • Likely protections: Jets-Giants (CBS) and Eagles-Patriots (FOX).
  • Other possible games: There are no games involving nothing but teams at or above .500. When we hit teams at 4-5, we see Cardinals-Rams, Seahawks-Vikings, Falcons-Bucs, and Texans-Bills. Chiefs-Raiders is a matchup of two 4-5 teams.
  • Analysis: For the record, this week is so bad that even the protected games involve 5-5 and 4-5 teams respectively (though that’s largely because of across-the-board mediocrity and a huge number of 4-5 teams – see the Playoff Picture below). So if you have to settle for a 4-5 or 5-5 team, a game where the 4-5 team leads, or at least contends for, the sorry AFC South is probably your best option, meaning this might actually be the best game of the week at the moment (and a potential Wild Card preview at the opposite stadium). Even if one of the 4-5 teams wins and the Colts lose, I think that factor combines with the tentative game bias (not to mention the middling-at-best attractions of the alternatives, with Seahawks-Vikings probably having the best name value) to let this game keep its spot.
  • Final prediction: Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers (no change).

Week 14 (December 13):

  • Tentative game: Seattle @ Baltimore
  • Prospects: 4-5 v. 2-7. Not looking good.
  • Likely protections: Steelers-Bengals (CBS, confirmed) and Cowboys-Packers or Falcons-Panthers (FOX).
  • Other possible games: The Cowboys suck and are pressed for primetime appearances, so if Falcons-Panthers is protected (admittedly extremely unlikely given Fox’s track record, even though both teams were unbeaten when protections came in) we’ll once again have to go to teams at 4-5. Raiders-Broncos remains lopsided, while Bills-Eagles is less so but has zero star power. Racial Slurs-Bears pits two 4-5 teams against each other.

Week 15 (December 20):

  • Tentative game: Cincinnati @ San Francisco
  • Prospects: 8-1 v. 3-6. Massively lopsided.
  • Likely protections: Broncos-Steelers (CBS, confirmed) and Panthers-Giants or Bears-Vikings (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Panthers-Giants is a bit lopsided, sitting at 9-0 v. 5-5, but it’s the only option pitting two teams at or above .500. If the NFL must go to a 4-5 team, they’d likely prefer Packers-Raiders to avoid scheduling two Bay Area home games at the same time (or even doing something weirder), though unlike some of my commenters I don’t think it’s the only option, only the most likely one. (Once again, the NFL still has yet to learn that it needs to consider every Sunday night game in the late-flex period as potentially flexible. Well, unless it involves the Cowboys of course.) The next best game might actually pit two 4-5 teams against each other: Texans-Colts pits the two AFC South contenders, Cardinals-Eagles and Bears-Vikings are very lopsided, and Bills-Original Americans is just plain blah.

Week 16 (December 27):

  • Tentative game: Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
  • Prospects: 6-4 v. 2-7. One of the NFL’s better rivalries, but not in the best shape right now.
  • Likely protections: Patriots-Jets (CBS) and Packers-Cardinals or Panthers-Falcons (FOX).
  • Other possible games: As with the week with the first Panthers-Falcons matchup, Fox’s unprotected game is far and away ahead of any other contenders, with Giants-Vikings in second and a trio of matchups of 4-5 teams (Colts-Dolphins, Rams-Seahawks, Bears-Bucs) as very long shots.

Week 17 (January 3):

AFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION
LEADERS		 WILD CARD WAITING IN
THE WINGS
SOUTH
44-5		 56-4 4-5
4-5 4-5
WEST
37-2		 65-4 4-5
2 tied at 4-5 4-5
NORTH
28-1		 5-4 3-6
6-4
EAST
19-0
2 tied at 5-4
NFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION
LEADERS		 WILD CARD WAITING IN
THE WINGS
EAST
45-5		 56-3 4-5
2 tied at 4-5 4-5
NORTH
37-2		 66-3 4-5
6-3 4-5
WEST
27-2		 4-5
2 tied at 4-5 4-5
SOUTH
19-0		 4-6
6-3
  • Tentative game: None (NBC will show game with guaranteed playoff implications).
  • Possible games: Jets-Bills, Saints-Falcons, Raiders-Chiefs, Eagles-Giants, Vikings-Packers, Seahawks-Cardinals.

Broadcast Rat Race Week 7: NBC: “‘Blindspot’, You Get a Renewal! ‘Chicago Fire’ and ‘P.D.’, You Get a Renewal! ‘Mysteries of Laura’, You Get Three Extra Episodes!”

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For the most part, the dawn of November sweeps means we’ve moved out of the part of the schedule where new shows’ fates are decided, at least those that premiered in September, and networks’ attention is starting to turn to midseason – or in the case of NBC, next season, as “Blindspot”, “Chicago Fire”, and “Chicago P.D.” have all already been renewed for next season, a surprise in the timing even if the fact of them is a surprise for none of them. Fox announced its midseason schedule and premiere dates Tuesday, and I’ll be looking at the implications in each Fox show’s individual entry. I’ve also reassessed the bottom of CBS’s slate and just what sort of challenge CBS has in putting together its own midseason schedule.

“Castle” and ABC’s Wednesday lineup were pre-empted for the CMA Awards, but that’s not nearly enough to throw out the weekly index numbers for the remaining shows like with Fox and the World Series last week. CBS bows veteran “2 Broke Girls” this week.

How to read the chart: First box shows current time slot, second box current season number. Eps: Total number of episodes aired / total number of episodes ordered (if known). Last: 18-49 rating of the most recent episode. Raw: Average of first-run 18-49 ratings. Adj.: Average of the most recent episode and the previous Adj. rating. WklIdx: Last divided by the network scripted show average for the week. RawIdx: Raw divided by the network scripted show average for the season. Index: Adj. divided by the network scripted show average for the season. In general, >1.1=certain renewal, .85-1.1=probable renewal, .7-.85=on the bubble, .6-.7=probably cancelled. Anything substantially less than .6 for rookie shows indicates a dead show walking. Prod: Production company that produces the show (ABC=ABC Studios, CBS=CBS Television, Fox=20th Television, NBCU=Universal Television, Sony=Sony Pictures Television, WB=Warner Bros. Television). Incorporates ratings through Sunday, November 8; write-ups do not take into account Monday’s or Tuesday’s ratings. Weekly averages used: CBS 1.62, ABC 1.47, FOX 1.39, NBC 1.25, CW .64. Network averages used: ABC 1.73, CBS 1.69, FOX 1.60, NBC 1.37, CW .65.

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Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 9

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NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that even with the bit about the early flexes, this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it still says late games start at 4:15 ET instead of 4:25):

  • Begins Sunday of Week 5
  • In effect during Weeks 5-17
  • Up to 2 games may be flexed into Sunday Night between Weeks 5-10
  • Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
  • The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
  • The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
  • The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
  • The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
  • Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
  • NFL schedules all games.
  • Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
  • Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks starting Week 11, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 in 2006 and 2011, because NBC hosted Christmas night games those years and all the other games were moved to Saturday (and so couldn’t be flexed), but are otherwise protected after Week 5. As I understand it, during the Week 5-10 period the NFL and NBC declare their intention to flex out a game two weeks in advance, at which point CBS and Fox pick one game each to protect.
  • In the past, three teams could appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. I don’t know how the expansion of the Thursday Night schedule affects this, if it does. No team starts the season completely tapped out at any measure; nine teams have five primetime appearances each, but only the Giants, Cowboys, Packers, and Eagles don’t have games in the main flex period, and of those only the Giants don’t have games in the early flex period. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 22):

  • Selected game: Cincinnati @ Arizona

Week 12 (November 29):

  • Tentative game: New England @ Denver
  • Final prediction (made last week): New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos.

Week 13 (December 6):

  • Tentative game: Indianapolis @ Pittsburgh
  • Prospects: 4-5 v. 5-4, a rather mediocre game but the Colts still lead the division despite being below .500.
  • Likely protections: Jets-Giants (CBS) and Eagles-Patriots (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Cardinals-Rams, Panthers-Saints, and Seahawks-Vikings all pit teams above .500 against teams at .500, so none of them are really much better.

Week 14 (December 13):

  • Tentative game: Seattle @ Baltimore
  • Prospects: 4-4 v. 2-6. Not looking good.
  • Likely protections: Steelers-Bengals (CBS, confirmed) and Cowboys-Packers or Falcons-Panthers (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Either of Fox’s possible protected games would be very attractive, and there may not really be any other option; Raiders-Broncos is lopsided and doesn’t even have the unbeaten factor on its side anymore. On the other hand, the Cowboys are kind of pressed for primetime appearances. Bills-Eagles is a battle of .500 teams.

Week 15 (December 20):

  • Tentative game: Cincinnati @ San Francisco
  • Prospects: 8-0 v. 3-6. Massively lopsided.
  • Likely protections: Broncos-Steelers (CBS, confirmed) and Panthers-Giants or Bears-Vikings (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Panthers-Giants is a bit lopsided, sitting at 8-0 v. 5-4; Packers-Raiders is a bit better at 6-2 v. 4-4, as is Cardinals-Eagles (the former would certainly give the NFL the least amount of heartburn regarding scheduling two Bay Area home games).

Week 16 (December 27):

  • Tentative game: Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
  • Prospects: 5-4 v. 2-6. One of the NFL’s better rivalries, but not in the best shape right now.
  • Likely protections: Patriots-Jets (CBS) and Packers-Cardinals or Panthers-Falcons (FOX).
  • Other possible games: As with the week with the first Panthers-Falcons matchup, Fox’s unprotected game is far and away ahead of any other contenders, with Giants-Vikings in second and Rams-Seahawks as a dark horse.

Week 17 (January 3):

AFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION
LEADERS		 WILD CARD WAITING IN
THE WINGS (3-5)
SOUTH
44-5		 55-3
3-5
WEST
37-1		 65-4
4-4
EAST
28-0		 4-4
5-3 4-4
NORTH
18-0
5-4
NFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION
LEADERS		 WILD CARD WAITING IN
THE WINGS
EAST
45-4		 56-2 4-5
4-4 3-5
NORTH
36-2		 66-3 3-5
6-2 3-5
WEST
26-2		 4-4
2 tied at 4-4 4-4
SOUTH
18-0		 4-4
6-3
  • Tentative game: None (NBC will show game with guaranteed playoff implications).
  • Possible games: Jets-Bills, Saints-Falcons, Raiders-Chiefs, Eagles-Giants, Vikings-Packers, Seahawks-Cardinals.

Broadcast Rat Race Week 6: Full Seasons for “Grandfathered”, “Life in Pieces”, Less So for “The Muppets” As “Supergirl” Flies Out the Gate

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There’s not much to read into things this week, with most of Fox’s primetime shows, including everything more popular than “Gotham”, pre-empted for the World Series, resulting in the shows that did air being left without weekly indices. It’s also hard to read anything into the drops for ABC and CBS’ Sunday shows, given they not only faced the World Series but a big-time battle of unbeatens on “Sunday Night Football”, and that caveat saves “Quantico” from an unthinkable drop onto the bubble. With CBS in a more general holding pattern due to the “Supergirl” premiere that also affects other networks’ Mondays, we’re really just waiting for next week to see if anything noteworthy happened this week. We have, however, hit the part of the season where the orders shows get are as much for filling schedule holes as anything else; besides the short order for “The Muppets”, NBC today gave single-episode orders to four shows already slated for full seasons.

This week “Thursday Night Football” becomes NFL Network-only, meaning the premiere of CBS’ full Thursday lineup, including syndication fast-track show “Mom” and no-longer-fast-track “Elementary”, now forced to stand or fall on its own as a veteran. CBS made a late decision not to hold “2 Broke Girls” for midseason, instead opting to hold off on new show “Angel from Hell”, and because of the late start on production will be airing a “Big Bang Theory” repeat at 9:30 this week.

How to read the chart: First box shows current time slot, second box current season number. Eps: Total number of episodes aired / total number of episodes ordered (if known). Last: 18-49 rating of the most recent episode. Raw: Average of first-run 18-49 ratings. Adj.: Average of the most recent episode and the previous Adj. rating. WklIdx: Last divided by the network scripted show average for the week. RawIdx: Raw divided by the network scripted show average for the season. Index: Adj. divided by the network scripted show average for the season. In general, >1.1=certain renewal, .85-1.1=probable renewal, .7-.85=on the bubble, .6-.7=probably cancelled. Anything substantially less than .6 for rookie shows indicates a dead show walking. Prod: Production company that produces the show (ABC=ABC Studios, CBS=CBS Television, Fox=20th Television, NBCU=Universal Television, Sony=Sony Pictures Television, WB=Warner Bros. Television). Incorporates ratings through Sunday, November 1; write-ups do not take into account Monday’s ratings. Weekly averages used: CBS 1.7, ABC 1.46, NBC 1.22, CW .65. Network averages used: ABC 1.76, CBS 1.70, FOX 1.64, NBC 1.39, CW .65.

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Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 8

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NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that even with the bit about the early flexes, this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it still says late games start at 4:15 ET instead of 4:25):

  • Begins Sunday of Week 5
  • In effect during Weeks 5-17
  • Up to 2 games may be flexed into Sunday Night between Weeks 5-10
  • Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
  • The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
  • The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
  • The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
  • The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
  • Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
  • NFL schedules all games.
  • Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
  • Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks starting Week 11, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 in 2006 and 2011, because NBC hosted Christmas night games those years and all the other games were moved to Saturday (and so couldn’t be flexed), but are otherwise protected after Week 5. As I understand it, during the Week 5-10 period the NFL and NBC declare their intention to flex out a game two weeks in advance, at which point CBS and Fox pick one game each to protect.
  • In the past, three teams could appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. I don’t know how the expansion of the Thursday Night schedule affects this, if it does. No team starts the season completely tapped out at any measure; nine teams have five primetime appearances each, but only the Giants, Cowboys, Packers, and Eagles don’t have games in the main flex period, and of those only the Giants don’t have games in the early flex period. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 22):

  • Tentative game: Kansas City @ San Diego
  • Prospects: 3-5 v. 2-6, in pretty bad shape.
  • Likely protections: Bengals-Cardinals or Colts-Falcons (CBS) and Packers-Vikings if anything (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Pretty much just CBS’ unprotected game, and even then Colts-Falcons is only redeemed for its lopsidedness and the Colts’ sucky record by the Colts leading the sucky AFC South regardless; Packers-Vikings would be on par with Bengals-Cardinals but more evenly matched and involving more attractive teams, but apparently the terms of the Vikings’ lease at M&T Bank Stadium mean the Vikings can’t host any primetime games when class is in session. (This also means this has a pretty good chance of being Fox’s unprotected week if they knew about this, although Cowboys-Dolphins might have been another option.)
  • Selected game: Cincinnati Bengals @ Arizona Cardinals.

Week 12 (November 29):

  • Tentative game: New England @ Denver
  • Prospects: Not a single loss between them, and possibly the last Brady-Manning showdown. No chance to lose its spot.
  • Likely protections: Giants-Washington if anything (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Thanksgiving Weekend, paucity of good games (I think it’s a mortal lock this is CBS’ unprotected week). I doubt it’s a coincidence the game you think is least likely to be flexed coming into the season is the one slated for this week. Vikings-Falcons is the best option, but both teams have two losses already, meaning they can only match the tentative at best. And if they can’t beat this game, Rams-Bengals, Steelers-Seahawks, and Saints-Texans sure can’t.
  • Final prediction: New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos.

Week 13 (December 6):

  • Tentative game: Indianapolis @ Pittsburgh
  • Prospects: 3-5 v. 4-4, a rather mediocre game but the Colts still lead the division despite being below .500.
  • Likely protections: Jets-Giants (CBS) and Eagles-Patriots (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Cardinals-Rams now pits two teams above .500 while Panthers-Saints and Seahawks-Vikings emerge as dark horses.

Week 14 (December 13):

  • Tentative game: Seattle @ Baltimore
  • Prospects: 4-4 v. 2-6. Not looking good.
  • Likely protections: Steelers-Bengals (CBS, confirmed) and Cowboys-Packers or Falcons-Panthers (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Either of Fox’s possible protected games would be very attractive, and there may not really be any other option; Raiders-Broncos pits an unbeaten against a better team than the Cowboys, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Cowboys’ name value trumped that. On the other hand, the Cowboys are kind of pressed for primetime appearances. I only mention Patriots-Texans as the Texans are co-leaders of the sucky AFC South.

Week 15 (December 20):

  • Tentative game: Cincinnati @ San Francisco
  • Prospects: 6-0 v. 2-6. Massively lopsided.
  • Likely protections: Broncos-Steelers (CBS, confirmed) and Panthers-Giants or Bears-Vikings (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Panthers-Giants is a bit lopsided, sitting at 7-0 v. 4-4; Packers-Raiders is a bit better at 6-1 v. 4-3. But both are more appealing than the battle of sucky AFC South division leaders in Texans-Colts.

Week 16 (December 27):

  • Tentative game: Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
  • Prospects: 4-4 v. 2-6. One of the NFL’s better rivalries, but not in the best shape right now.
  • Likely protections: Patriots-Jets (CBS) and Packers-Cardinals or Panthers-Falcons (FOX).
  • Other possible games: As with the week with the first Panthers-Falcons matchup, Fox’s unprotected game is far and away ahead of any other contenders, with Giants-Vikings and Rams-Seahawks as dark horses.

Week 17 (January 3):

  • Playoff positioning watch begins Week 9.

Cord-Cutting is On the Rise, But Is It Too Late to Save Broadcasting?

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To hear some people talk, 2015 may be shaping up to be a turning point for the sports TV landscape and that of TV in general, where cord-cutting may be hitting a tipping point and substantially impacting ESPN’s business. It started with the advent of Sling TV allowing people to get ESPN without a traditional cable subscription, and has continued with the launch of HBO NOW and other over-the-top services. Then ESPN let several high-profile personalities go in the name of cost-cutting, including Bill Simmons and Colin Cowherd. More to the point, after years of sports events moving seemingly inexorably to cable, some of them are finally starting to move the other way. ESPN losing several lower-tier rights to entities that will place them on broadcast networks is more about ESPN trying to save money and Fox and NBC not quite being as willing to go all-in on the cable network front as ESPN has been than anything else, though there is surely some symbolic value in the British Open, which moved to ESPN exclusively shortly before the BCS deal, returning to broadcast on NBC and Golf Channel. What may send a bigger message is ESPN itself announcing that their upcoming NFL Wild Card game will be simulcast on ABC, as well as moving the ESPY awards to ABC (though I can’t help but wonder if they knew about Caitlyn Jenner’s appearance attracting a lot of non-sports fans when they made the latter move). All this is taking place on a backdrop of ESPN losing over three million households just in the year from July to July.

It’s tempting to say this marks the bursting of the sports TV bubble and the start of broadcast reclaiming its former dominance in the television, or at least sports television, landscape. Certainly it looks like the smart thing for the Big Ten to do in its upcoming rights renegotiations is to adopt a fairly broadcast-heavy strategy, and between that and ESPN’s penny-pinching I’d be very surprised if ESPN claimed the entirety of the Big Ten rights. (Given the potential synergy with the Big Ten Network, I’d be shocked if Fox was completely shut out of the Big Ten rights.) But the decline of ESPN’s subscriber base and the erosion of their subscriber-fee advantage is only half the story. It won’t mean much if broadcasting doesn’t survive long enough to take advantage of it – and if broadcasters aren’t able or willing to take advantage of it. It won’t mean much if broadcasters remain unaware of or resistant to their potential in the video landscape of the future, or if market and regulatory concerns prevent them from realizing that potential.

We’re now five months away from the broadcast incentive auctions scheduled for late March. Many stations may elect to go off the air out of the belief that they can get more money surrendering their spectrum to wireless companies than by staying on the air, in part because of the perceived limited potential of broadcast given the programming available to them and the market forces favoring cable networks. In some places, large station group owners may elect to consolidate multiple stations they own onto a single signal, with some having already done so and either selling the shell of the vacated station to groups with not much to do with it but cash it out at auction or simply outright returning the licence to the FCC. Pretty much any station that’s not an affiliate of a Big Four network is liable to put up their stations at auction, because they’re not programming anything that’s worth people’s attention at the moment. Those stations that survive could end up terminally crippled by a variable band-plan that could subject many stations to interference from wireless carriers and a landscape that could make it impossible for new stations to start up if anyone decides some of the stations that shut down or consolidated shouldn’t have.

As I’ve laid out many times before, cord-cutting should be a boon to broadcasters even as it disrupts the cable business, or at least it should hinder broadcasters much less than cable operators. But it’s not happening fast enough to change the fact that cable networks’ access to subscription fees give them a massive advantage over broadcast networks and stations, compounded by regulatory restrictions on content cable networks aren’t subject to, and retransmission consent, broadcast’s means of trying to correct this imbalance, only gives them as much reason to fear cord-cutting as the cable networks, to the point of threatening to abandon over-the-air broadcasting entirely if Aereo was allowed to cripple their retransmission consent leverage, and doing little to overcome the industry’s other challenges. (Even when some do attempt to lay out the benefits of continued cord-cutting for broadcast, retransmission consent still plays a key role.) Cord-cutting’s benefit to broadcasting has been limited by a poorly-implemented digital transition that made it far too difficult for far too many Americans to pick up their signal and a digital standard that wasn’t future-proof enough to allow broadcasters to reach mobile devices without using the Internet as an intermediary or using an optional, poorly-supported kludge, with the result that far too few Americans know, and fewer care, about the plight of broadcasting or its importance. The broadcast industry has been hard at work on a next-generation digital television standard with the potential to fix some of these technological shortcomings, but there’s no guarantee it’ll be ready in time for the incentive auction, that it’ll actually do enough to solve these problems, or that it’ll overcome the larger market and regulatory forces holding back the industry and hindering support for the standard. The FCC might fix some of the outdated and backwards ownership rules holding broadcast back, but not only would solving the biggest problems require Congressional action, they don’t even plan on finishing the ongoing ownership review until June, after the auction, betraying how much interest they have in the continued survival of the broadcast industry.

By and large, the broadcast industry seems unaware of the real nature of the forces destroying their industry, of the value the technology of broadcast potentially has in the video landscape of the future so long as broadcasters are willing and able to maximize it, and has little interest in attempting to surmount its obstacles, including the ones they’re complicit in, to ensure its continued survival. They seem unaware their most dominant players, the ones that threatened to ditch broadcast in the Aereo affair, do not really have their best interests at heart, placing far more stock in their cable networks and only sticking with broadcast, and the threat it could potentially pose to their cable networks, as long as they can keep collecting retransmission consent and they can’t get away with ditching it without a major PR disaster and Congressional action. Fox just announced it’s renewing the MyNetworkTV “programming service” on its non-Fox network stations for another two years, beyond the incentive auction – even though Fox’s own MyNet station here in LA doesn’t even show MyNet in the very primetime spots that are supposedly MyNet’s reason for existence in the first place. It’s all the more apparent that the real purpose of MyNet is to keep stations from posing any real competitive threat to Fox’s broadcast or cable networks by “filling their primetime needs” with the sort of reruns that are perhaps least necessary to have on linear broadcast television in the age of Netflix.

I don’t know what might happen to get the broadcast industry to wake up and embrace a path that will allow it to survive and thrive in the future. Perhaps it’ll come from outside, with a billionaire sports team owner willing to take a risk on a new (old) distribution paradigm and a new business model for the 21st century. Perhaps it’ll come from within, with a station group large in its own right but with less investment in cable willing to recognize MyNet for what it is and offer the industry a different path using infrastructure it’s been building for the past two years. Or perhaps Congress, overcoming its ongoing dysfunction ever so briefly, will find enough wisdom to rewrite the rules to fit the market conditions of the 2010s, not the 1990s. Or maybe it’ll be something else entirely. But whatever it is, the clock is ticking for it to happen, or else the turning point 2015 is shaping up to be for cord-cutting may prove to be too little, too late for the broadcast industry – and that would mean ESPN would have much less to fear from cord-cutting than you might think.

Broadcast Rat Race Week 5: “The Player”, “Blood and Oil”, “Truth Be Told” Catch Episode Cut Epidemic; “Limitless” Given Back-Nine Inoculation – As Has “The Grinder”?!

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We’ve had a veritable spate of episode-order cuts this year; Fox started it by cutting “Minority Report” to ten episodes, and every show listed as “cancelled” on the chart below has had their episode order cut. This is the latest evolution in how networks deal with flops. Once upon a time, flops would simply be yanked off the schedule and replaced with something else coming out of the bullpen, but new shows were doomed to failure if they were plugged in to a random flop’s time-slot at a random point in the season rather than being given significant advance promotion and debuting at a point where audiences were ready for new shows, readying veteran shows with established audiences wasn’t much better and posed additional risks, and putting veteran shows in interim spots on the schedule like Fridays, to be plugged in when a new show flopped, didn’t fool anyone for long and cost the networks upfront money contingent on the originally advertised time slot. In recent years, then, networks have taken to letting shows finish out their initial 13-episode order, no matter how horribly rated (so long as reruns wouldn’t do any better), and then finding something else to fill the time-slot at midseason.

Last year, the first thing resembling a cancellation came in mid-October, and was similar to what we’ve seen this year: Fox cut “Mulaney”‘s episode order from an unusually-high 16 to 13. ABC yanked “Manhattan Love Story” at about this time last year, replacing it with double-runs of “Selfie” (which wasn’t that much higher rated), and in mid-November pulled “Selfie” in favor of repeats and “Dancing with the Stars” clip shows. NBC gave a Halloween spook to “A to Z” and “Bad Judge”, announcing on October 31 that those two shows would not receive more than their original 13-episode orders, but that all the episodes ordered would air. CBS announced it wouldn’t go forward with sophomore “The Millers” in mid-November, something of a surprise considering the support CBS had seemed to show it by renewing it in the first place and their evident desire to get one of their own sitcoms to syndication. NBC’s “Constantine” and Fox’s “Red Band Society” were the only other shows to be announced not to get back nines by the end of November, with Fox pulling “RBS” off the schedule after ten episodes, taking it a week into December. Only “Manhattan Love Story”, “Selfie”, and “The Millers” failed to hold on to their spots until holiday specials and repeats took over the schedule.

This year networks seem to be adopting the tack Fox took with “Mulaney” and “Minority Report” by cutting episode orders. Several shows in the past week have effectively had production shut down after the current episode, pointing to what may be behind the latest strategy tweak: regardless of the opportunity cost of pulling a new show, networks may not want to incur the cost of producing more episodes of shows that will deliver miniscule ratings, which may mean they may prefer to run repeats once the produced episodes have finished airing even if the repeats would deliver smaller ratings, since repeats don’t incur production costs. Shows that have been produced will air in their originally scheduled time slot, because they might as well if repeats won’t do any better, and they’d collect better numbers there than if they were burned off on Saturday or in summer.

Rookies “Supergirl” and “Wicked City” and veteran “Grimm” make their bows this week.

How to read the chart: First box shows current time slot, second box current season number. Eps: Total number of episodes aired / total number of episodes ordered (if known). Last: 18-49 rating of the most recent episode. Raw: Average of first-run 18-49 ratings. Adj.: Average of the most recent episode and the previous Adj. rating. WklIdx: Last divided by the network scripted show average for the week. RawIdx: Raw divided by the network scripted show average for the season. Index: Adj. divided by the network scripted show average for the season. In general, >1.1=certain renewal, .85-1.1=probable renewal, .7-.85=on the bubble, .6-.7=probably cancelled. Anything substantially less than .6 for rookie shows indicates a dead show walking. Prod: Production company that produces the show (ABC=ABC Studios, CBS=CBS Television, Fox=20th Television, NBCU=Universal Television, Sony=Sony Pictures Television, WB=Warner Bros. Television). Incorporates ratings through Sunday, October 25; write-ups do not take into account Monday’s or Tuesday’s ratings. Weekly averages used: ABC 1.71, FOX 1.64, CBS 1.61, NBC 1.23, CW .58. Network averages used: ABC 1.83, CBS 1.70, FOX 1.68, NBC 1.43, CW .66.

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Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 7

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NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that even with the bit about the early flexes, this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it still says late games start at 4:15 ET instead of 4:25):

  • Begins Sunday of Week 5
  • In effect during Weeks 5-17
  • Up to 2 games may be flexed into Sunday Night between Weeks 5-10
  • Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
  • The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
  • The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
  • The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
  • The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
  • Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
  • NFL schedules all games.
  • Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
  • Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks starting Week 11, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 in 2006 and 2011, because NBC hosted Christmas night games those years and all the other games were moved to Saturday (and so couldn’t be flexed), but are otherwise protected after Week 5. As I understand it, during the Week 5-10 period the NFL and NBC declare their intention to flex out a game two weeks in advance, at which point CBS and Fox pick one game each to protect.
  • In the past, three teams could appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. I don’t know how the expansion of the Thursday Night schedule affects this, if it does. No team starts the season completely tapped out at any measure; nine teams have five primetime appearances each, but only the Giants, Cowboys, Packers, and Eagles don’t have games in the main flex period, and of those only the Giants don’t have games in the early flex period. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 22):

  • Tentative game: Kansas City @ San Diego
  • Prospects: 2-5 v. 2-5, in pretty bad shape.
  • Likely protections: Bengals-Cardinals or Colts-Falcons (CBS) and Packers-Vikings if anything (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Pretty much just CBS’ unprotected game, although Packers-Vikings is becoming an intriguing option even with the Packers still unbeaten.

Week 12 (November 29):

  • Tentative game: New England @ Denver
  • Prospects: Not a single loss between them, and possibly the last Brady-Manning showdown. No chance to lose its spot.
  • Likely protections: Giants-Washington if anything (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Thanksgiving Weekend, paucity of good games (I think it’s a mortal lock this is CBS’ unprotected week). I doubt it’s a coincidence the game you think is least likely to be flexed coming into the season is the one slated for this week. Vikings-Falcons is at least becoming a respectable option, but it really has no shot, while Rams-Bengals and Dolphins-Jets continue to wait in the wings.

Week 13 (December 6):

  • Tentative game: Indianapolis @ Pittsburgh
  • Prospects: 3-4 v. 4-3, a rather mediocre game but the Colts still lead the division despite being below .500.
  • Likely protections: Jets-Giants (CBS) and Eagles-Patriots (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Cardinals-Rams is the only game pitting two teams at or above .500.

Week 14 (December 13):

  • Tentative game: Seattle @ Baltimore
  • Prospects: 3-4 v. 1-6. Not looking good.
  • Likely protections: Steelers-Bengals (CBS, confirmed) and Cowboys-Packers or Falcons-Panthers (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Either of Fox’s possible protected games would be very attractive, with at least one team unbeaten at the moment, and there may not really be any other option; Raiders-Broncos pits an unbeaten against a better team than the Cowboys, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Cowboys’ name value trumped that.

Week 15 (December 20):

  • Tentative game: Cincinnati @ San Francisco
  • Prospects: 6-0 v. 2-5. Massively lopsided.
  • Likely protections: Broncos-Steelers (CBS, confirmed) and Panthers-Giants or Bears-Vikings (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Panthers-Giants is a bit lopsided, sitting at 5-0 v. 4-3, but it’s still a Giants win better than Packers-Raiders.

Week 16 (December 27):

  • Tentative game: Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
  • Prospects: 4-3 v. 1-6. One of the NFL’s better rivalries, but not in the best shape right now.
  • Likely protections: Patriots-Jets (CBS) and Packers-Cardinals or Panthers-Falcons (FOX).
  • Other possible games: As with the week with the first Panthers-Falcons matchup, Fox’s unprotected game is far and away ahead of any other contenders; Giants-Vikings is a very distant second, while Colts-Dolphins waits in the wings.

Week 17 (January 3):

  • Playoff positioning watch begins Week 9.

Broadcast Rat Race Week 4: “Rosewood”, “Dr. Ken” Prescribed Back Nines, “Blood and Oil”, “The Player” Terminal, “Crazy Ex-Girlfriend”, “Truth Be Told” Stillborn

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I’ve condensed the top lines for shows well into “certain renewal” status in order to save me the work needed to come up with write-ups for all of them. (Don’t worry, they should be easier to read next week.) Of course those weren’t the only shows I had trouble writing up. I had some material for “Rosewood” and “Dr. Ken”, recipients of back-nine orders each, but I’m not even happy with those. I mostly condensed shows above adjusted index numbers of 1.15, though I could have gone with 1.2 and saved the possibility of “Chicago Fire” making me eat my decision to condense it, and I wouldn’t have condensed “The Goldbergs” at all if it weren’t a fast-track show.

Things are starting to clear up, by and large. Two shows moved to dead-show-walking status this week and a third flopped out of the gate to join them, and no, it’s not the historically-bad start of “Truth be Told”. CBS has a lot of pull to keep their CW shows alive, but it’s hard to see it being worth the effort when it comes to a show that gets out to such a dreadful start, even by CW standards, as “Crazy Ex-Girlfriend” – especially considering how much flux the future of the CW itself, and specifically CBS’ involvement in it, is in this season, when so many of its affiliation agreements are up.

No new shows premiering this week, but “Supergirl” will have premiered on CBS by the time next week’s post is out.

How to read the chart: First box shows current time slot, second box current season number. Eps: Total number of episodes aired / total number of episodes ordered (if known). Last: 18-49 rating of the most recent episode. Raw: Average of first-run 18-49 ratings. Adj.: Average of the most recent episode and the previous Adj. rating. WklIdx: Last divided by the network scripted show average for the week. RawIdx: Raw divided by the network scripted show average for the season. Index: Adj. divided by the network scripted show average for the season. In general, >1.1=certain renewal, .85-1.1=probable renewal, .7-.85=on the bubble, .6-.7=probably cancelled. Anything substantially less than .6 for rookie shows indicates a dead show walking. Prod: Production company that produces the show (ABC=ABC Studios, CBS=CBS Television, Fox=20th Television, NBCU=Universal Television, Sony=Sony Pictures Television, WB=Warner Bros. Television). Incorporates ratings through Sunday, October 18; write-ups do not take into account Monday’s ratings. Weekly averages used: ABC 1.66, CBS 1.54, FOX 1.38, NBC 1.31, CW .64. Network averages used: ABC 1.85, CBS 1.72, FOX 1.69, NBC 1.5, CW .7.

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Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 6

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NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that even with the bit about the early flexes, this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it still says late games start at 4:15 ET instead of 4:25):

  • Begins Sunday of Week 5
  • In effect during Weeks 5-17
  • Up to 2 games may be flexed into Sunday Night between Weeks 5-10
  • Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
  • The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
  • The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
  • The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
  • The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
  • Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
  • NFL schedules all games.
  • Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
  • Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks starting Week 11, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 in 2006 and 2011, because NBC hosted Christmas night games those years and all the other games were moved to Saturday (and so couldn’t be flexed), but are otherwise protected after Week 5. As I understand it, during the Week 5-10 period the NFL and NBC declare their intention to flex out a game two weeks in advance, at which point CBS and Fox pick one game each to protect.
  • In the past, three teams could appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. I don’t know how the expansion of the Thursday Night schedule affects this, if it does. No team starts the season completely tapped out at any measure; nine teams have five primetime appearances each, but only the Giants, Cowboys, Packers, and Eagles don’t have games in the main flex period, and of those only the Giants don’t have games in the early flex period. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 22):

  • Tentative game: Kansas City @ San Diego
  • Prospects: 1-5 v. 2-4, in pretty bad shape.
  • Likely protections: Bengals-Cardinals or Colts-Falcons (CBS) and Packers-Vikings if anything (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Pretty much just CBS’ unprotected game; even Packers-Vikings might be too lopsided to be much of an option if it’s unprotected. The Eagles were the only 2-3 team to win and none of the unbeatens lost so I’m still looking at 2-3 teams; that Eagles win helps Bucs-Eagles some, but it’s still substantially behind CBS’ unprotected game. Cowboys-Dolphins is starting to emerge as an even darker horse.

Week 12 (November 29):

  • Tentative game: New England @ Denver
  • Prospects: Not a single loss between them, and possibly the last Brady-Manning showdown. No chance to lose its spot.
  • Likely protections: Giants-Washington if anything (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Thanksgiving Weekend, paucity of good games (I think it’s a mortal lock this is CBS’ unprotected week). I doubt it’s a coincidence the game you think is least likely to be flexed coming into the season is the one slated for this week. Vikings-Falcons is at least becoming a respectable option, but it really has no shot, while Bucs-Colts, Rams-Bengals, and Dolphins-Jets continue to wait in the wings.

Week 13 (December 6):

  • Tentative game: Indianapolis @ Pittsburgh
  • Prospects: 3-3 v. 4-2, a respectable but not worldbeating game, with marquee quarterbacks but small markets.
  • Likely protections: Jets-Giants (CBS) and Eagles-Patriots (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Only other options involve teams below .500, and even then there are only two games involving only teams at 2-3 or better. Falcons-Bucs is the only unbeaten-vs-2-3 game where the 2-3 team didn’t lose last week, and that only because the Bucs were on bye, and Cardinals-Rams is the only other option. This game will keep its spot if records hold.

Week 14 (December 13):

  • Tentative game: Seattle @ Baltimore
  • Prospects: 2-4 v. 1-5, same as Chiefs-Chargers earlier. Not looking good.
  • Likely protections: Steelers-Bengals (CBS) and Cowboys-Packers or Falcons-Panthers (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Either of Fox’s possible protected games would be very attractive, with at least one team unbeaten at the moment, and there may not really be any other option. Raiders-Broncos is another unbeaten v. 2-3 game, and Bills-Eagles at least pits two teams at .500, but that’s it.

Week 15 (December 20):

  • Tentative game: Cincinnati @ San Francisco
  • Prospects: 6-0 v. 2-4. Massively lopsided.
  • Likely protections: Broncos-Steelers (CBS) and Panthers-Giants or Bears-Vikings (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Panthers-Giants is increasingly lopsided, sitting at 5-0 v. 3-3, while Cardinals-Eagles is now 4-2 v. 3-3. Packers-Raiders is a bit too lopsided to be an option at the moment, at only a Raiders loss better than the tentative.

Week 16 (December 27):

  • Tentative game: Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
  • Prospects: 4-2 v. 1-5. One of the NFL’s better rivalries, but not in the best shape right now.
  • Likely protections: Patriots-Jets (CBS) and Packers-Cardinals or Panthers-Falcons (FOX).
  • Other possible games: As with the week with the first Panthers-Falcons matchup, Fox’s unprotected game is far and away ahead of any other contenders; Giants-Vikings is a very distant second, while Cowboys-Bills and Colts-Dolphins pit 3-3 v. 2-3 teams.

Week 17 (January 3):

  • Playoff positioning watch begins Week 9.