College Football Rankings after Week 12

Because of my busy schedule and my emphasis on the SuperPower Rankings, I haven’t really said much about the College Football Rankings. The last two weeks have been dominated by the laptop situation, and the two weeks before by my antsiness about the Arizona State-Oregon game getting on TV. Before that, I often had overly short remarks; “The college football rankings from Week 6 are finally up here” was the entire text of my Week 6 update. I did have that long rant about a playoff system, and the simulated playoff is fast approaching, but that’s been the exception, not the rule.

Here, though, are some remarks:

  • People keep talking about how there’s so much parity in college football we desperately need a playoff. But this year could turn out to be a situation in which a plus-one system, or pseudo-four-team playoff, would work just fine. In my view, any plus-one system has to protect the traditional Big Ten-Pac-10 Rose Bowl matchup, but can ruin any other bowls for maximum clarity. Because I want to protect the sanctity of the Rose Bowl, it wouldn’t have helped a lot in 2000-01, where the most obvious solution was to have Florida State and Miami play again, in the not-impartial-at-all Orange Bowl, and Washington would not be able to play Oklahoma in the other plus-one play-in. A similar problem would have occured the following year, with Oregon relegated to the Rose Bowl. However, it would have solved the 2003-04 (same Rose Bowl and – possibly moved to another bowl – Sugar Bowl we got, as was proposed at the time), 2004-05 (USC v. Penn State in Rose Bowl, Oklahoma v. Auburn in another bowl), and 2006-07 (Ohio State-USC in Rose Bowl, Florida-Michigan in another bowl) controversies. As you can see, however, what it would not do is mollify the concerns of non-BCS conferences.
  • In what I think is a first since starting keeping track of the Top 25 in my system in 2005, I have no “watchlist” of teams with positive B Ratings but outside my Top 25. I have Tulsa way down there at #35, depressed by a bad conference.
  • LSU I think we can agree on at .
  • Ohio State: Pollsters always overreact to losses, especially at the top. The most flukey loss imaginable will still send a team plummeting down the polls. Illinois is still a good team and you can’t dismiss a season of excellence with one loss.
  • Kansas: Need to prove their worth. Ohio State will take a couple weeks of idle hands so Kansas can easily move up to , but it might take two wins.
  • West Virginia: Let’s see, the Big East has four teams – or half of the entire conference – taken up with world-class teams (West Virginia, Cincinnati, UConn, and South Florida), plus two dangerous teams (Louisville and Rutgers) that aren’t bad either – that’s three fourths of the entire conference – and a team (Pittsburgh) that isn’t as bad as their record because of the strength of all the others, and you still want to denigrate the Big East? To dare to say the f’in Big 12 is better in a year where that conference is “three teams and everyone else? To brush off South Florida’s losing streak without considering the quality of team they did it against? To say that West Virginia, a team that has so far escaped that schedule with only one loss, should be left out of the national title conversation – at least if Kansas loses – “because it’s the Big East”? And West Virginia is probably going to face a random sacrificial lamb from the ACC in the Orange Bowl. Shameful.
  • Florida: Overreacting to losses, redux. Some people think the polls are basically a way to reflect winning percentage in college sports where that’s meaningless. It’s hard to disagree. (Yes, I know they lost to Georgia, another two-loss team. Florida also lost to LSU. Meanwhile, Georgia lost to South Carolina and Tennessee, while eking out a ten-point victory over Troy – a team from the effing Sun Belt Conference. Good team, though.)
  • Missouri: Yeah, they beat Texas Tech, something Oklahoma couldn’t do. And their one loss is to Oklahoma. But they also never played Oklahoma State, their best nonconference game was a six-point nailbiter over Illinois, and they and Kansas have been it all year in the Big 12 North.
  • Oklahoma: Simultaneously overreacting to a loss and not looking at the schedule redux. Your best nonconference opponent is either Miami (FL) or Tulsa… you win a nailbiter over Texas and another one over freaking Iowa State… very concerning.
  • Oregon: Overreacting to a loss, once again. Actually Oregon is only one spot lower than here in the polls, but below Arizona State.
  • South Florida: Reappears in the BCS this week. Beat WV, which Cincinnatti didn’t do.
  • Where is the love for Penn State? Loss puts Michigan negative.

Week 10 SuperPower Rankings Up

Last week the Patriots achieved a momentous feat: single digits in points. Falling to 9 points means becoming the unanimous No. 1 pick in the Super Power Rankings. This week, the Dolphins pull the opposite feat: 288 points for being the unanimous last place pick.

My Upset Special this week is the Bears over the Seahawks, though I’m starting to reconsider that. Oakland over the Vikings is a technical upset both in the lines and the SuperPower Rankings, so I could have chosen that as my Upset Special and let the home-team edge between two wildly inconsistent teams go to the Seahawks. In fact, screw it. I just moved my pick back over to Seattle. The Upset Special is Oakland handling the Peterson-less Vikes.

Laptop Update

I installed a second version of XP on my hard disk and my computer is once again operating semi-normally. The web site has been updated with two weeks‘ worth of College Football Rankings, changes in both lineal titles, and one week’s update of the SuperPower Rankings. This week’s SuperPower Rankings (and the picks) will wait until at least tomorrow.

Update

I still have no means of uploading to Freehostia at the moment. Here are the Week 9 SuperPower Rankings:

  1. *Patriots
  2. Colts
  3. Cowboys
  4. Packers
  5. Steelers
  6. Giants
  7. Titans
  8. Lions
  9. Browns
  10. Jaguars
  11. Saints
  12. Buccaneers
  13. Chargers
  14. Redskins
  15. Ravens
  16. Chiefs
  17. Seahawks
  18. Bills
  19. Panthers
  20. Texans
  21. Vikings
  22. Bears
  23. Broncos
  24. Cardinals
  25. Eagles
  26. Bengals
  27. Falcons
  28. Raiders
  29. 49ers
  30. Jets
  31. Rams
  32. Dolphins

My Upset Special for the week is the Raiders over the Bears at home, which isn’t exactly a blockbuster. Other things that require a web-site update are still on hold for the forseeable future, including the Week 10 College Football Rankings, which, God willing, I will post next week along with the Week 11 Rankings. The NFL Lineal Title is updated on the web site’s front page to reflect the Pats’ victory but not on the Lineal Title History.

As for the SNF Flex Schedule watch, it’s forthcoming, but hang on, it’ll take me a bit longer than usual to prepare it, and not because of my computer situation.

Attention

The NFL SuperPower Rankings, NFL lineal title update, SNF Flex Scheduling watch, and NFL picks are all delayed at least until Thursday and possibly Friday due to a computer issue.

The College Football Rankings will be up by 5 PM PT. Link is on a prior post.

UPDATE: The College Football Rankings are delayed as well and I may not be able to update anything web site related. If so, I will not have any more SuperPower Ranking updates for the remainder of the season. It seems at least some of the school computers may have restrictions on uploading files to the Internet. That or Freehostia is having problems at the moment.

Quick Check off the SNF Watch

CONFIRMED: Protection still exists. But looking at my Week 4 roundup, I might have found it hard to believe Fox would have protected Giants-Lions. The Giants were only 2-2 at the time and the Lions were similar. Panthers-Packers would have been a more likely protection for Fox.

Other projected protections: Bucs-Redskins Week 12; Jaguars-Colts and maybe Seahawks-Eagles Week 13; Steelers-Patriots and either Cowboys-Lions, Bucs-Texans, or Cardinals-Seahawks Week 14; Jaguars-Steelers and either Seahawks-Panthers or Eagles-Cowboys Week 15; Ravens-Seahawks and Packers-Bears Week 16; and Steelers-Ravens or Titans-Colts, and Cowboys-Redskins or Packers-Lions, Week 17.

NBC has a point when they note that the Bills are on fire. But the Pats are too far on another level for it to look competitive, in the game or the AFC East. NBC also notes that the Pats played in the two highest-rated games this season – ignoring that the Colts and Cowboys games were also two of the most-hyped, most-important games this season. It reminds me of when Sports Media Watch became so fixated with its “Cowboys were more responsible for Pats-Cowboys rating than the actual quality of the teams” hypothesis that it actually picked a lower rating for Pats-Colts, underestimating the NFL audience and failing to note that the NFL is unlike any other sports league. NBC (and the NFL) may be falling into the same trap.

The Week 10 College Football Rankings will be here shortly. They do not include ESPN’s Tuesday and Wednesday games. I will also update the Web site at the same time to include the NFL Lineal Title change.

NFL Week 8 SuperPower Rankings

I only missed four games this past week, and only two in which I picked the favorite. In both cases, the team on top in the SuperPower Rankings won, so there really was no good Upset Special this week.

This week, I have Indy pulling the Upset Special over the Patriots in Super Bowl XLI.V. However, I also think the Patriots could turn the tables and win the AFC Championship Game. I also find it incredible that the Saints are favored over the supposedly red-hot Jaguars, even though I’m going the same way. I have a second Upset Special picking the Cardinals over the Bucs.

The Chargers and Chiefs may have fattened up against weak opposition. KC is facing a Packer team that’s better than them in the rankings anyway, and the Chargers are facing Minnesota, who are too weak to challenge them.

College Football Rankings after Week 8

In two weeks, Arizona State-Oregon could determine who goes to the Rose Bowl, if not the National Championship Game. But at the moment it’s not looking to be on television at all outside of the states in question, because the TV schedule for this particular week was set for the Pac-10 before the season.

Here‘s how the rankings look after eight wild and wacky weeks.

Also, early in the year Florida held the Princeton title and LSU held the 2004 Auburn title. Those two have now flipped.

Superpower Rankings and a Life Update

Can someone take over the Consensus Power Rankings for me? Not right away, maybe next year. I still like the concept and value the Consensus Rankings far more than any individual ranking when making out my picks of the week, but it’s so time-consuming. Ideally, looking at and plugging in a ranking for a team doesn’t take much time, but with nine rankings and 32 teams, I’m looking at nearly 300 rankings I have to add in, and some rankings are easier to do than others. Then I hand-reorder the rankings, and then comes the really long part: the little blurbs I stick next to each team. Those really take time.

Starting next week, I will probably move all the Power Rankings into an Excel file and just do the rankings on there from now on, unless someone else volunteers to take over by next Wednesday. And I’ll probably ditch this experiment next year.

That I spend so much time on the consensus power rankings is a problem, considering I am back to being a college student. And especially since I’m in one class where three is the norm. Last week, after an incident that happened the Thursday before, I was removed from one of the two classes I started the year in. I spent the weekend fretting that I might be kicked out of school entirely. I wrote the following during that time:

I don’t like the direction my life is heading, and I don’t know what I can do to
stop it. I’m about to be kicked out of school, but that’s only going to solve
the problem for them, not for me. This path has the chance to end with me in
jail. I could move on to another college, but without some changes the same
thing is probably going to happen. Especially since Mom says I would have to get
a job and basically have no fun whatsoever between school and work. And I don’t
have much of a work ethic, which might be an even bigger problem than the
behavior stuff. I would like to write a lot, I’d like to write a novel about
what I have to go through, but I started thinking about it as a seinor in high
school and I’ve barely made it out of the first chapter. I could enter the
working world but I could get kicked out there too. And there’s the work ethic
too. I could become a nonworking househusband but I’d be wasting my talents, I’m
too timid to meet any girls, and that would end badly too.

The things I spend my time working on are so trivial that I’m not sure I would want them even as jobs. That’s the real reason I want to unload the Superpower Rankings: I’m not even enjoying them. It’s too much work.

With the Patriots’ demolition of the Cowboys, only the true diehards who keep saying “I won’t drop the defending SB champs from until they lose” (namely, Fox) keep the Patriots from being a unanimous No. 1. In other news, I think we need to call an intervention on Yahoo’s Charles Robinson, and gently let him know that the team he keeps ranking at #14 is 0-3 in their last 3 and their two wins came on last-second field goals against teams he ranks 26th and 28th. And the Eagles are 2-0 in games where the home team wears bad throwbacks. I’m picking Jacksonville over Indianapolis to win the Lineal Title as my upset special only because I wasn’t moved to pick any other real blockbuster upsets.

What a long, strange trip it’s been

What a wild, wacky college football season it’s been. The raft of upsetitis has now spread to the top teams. USC is the best team in the country? Whoops, they just lost to Stanford, the dregs of the Pac-10. LSU is the best team? Whoops, they just lost to Kentucky. Now Ohio State is the best team. Maybe that’s good news for Michigan State, who they play this week.

A lot of people say it’s all because of increased parity. If so, that’s a wonderful argument for a playoff. Well, if you want a playoff, here’s what you’re going to have to get for it to be logical: 16 teams. Every conference champion gets a spot, even in the Sun Belt. That leaves five at-large bids. If you’re a good team, you better win your conference championship, or you’re fighting for fewer at-large bids than there are BCS conferences. I’d be willing to consider a 24-team format as well, about one-third the size of the NCAA Basketball tournament, which scales about right. That has the added bonus of increased competition at the top to nab one of the eight byes, as well as allowing us to preserve most of the existing bowls while adding some logic and order to it as well.

At the end of the season, I’m going to simulate a playoff format like this, using the following criteria. I seed the field 1-16 and assign each pod of four to a BCS bowl site for the second round. The first round will be held at higher-seed home sites, and the last two rounds will be held at whatever site the real-life BCS Championship Game is being held.

I seed the field and choose the at-larges using the same criteria the NCAA uses to pick its basketball tournament. For my purposes, that is: pure record, RPI, record in conference and out, road record, record in last 5 games, and individual RPI ranking, and status in playoff, of all teams played. I don’t weight the RPI the way the NCAA does for home and road and I choose the at-larges before seeding anyone. I also don’t use the BCS, my college football rankings, or any poll.

Once I have that down, I’ll start the simulated playoff. I determine who moves on based on polling visitors to Da Blog, despite having a piss-poor track record of people actually voting in my polls.

One downside to a playoff: It loses a lot of the justification for the I-A/I-AA split to exist. Just look at the Orwellian names the NCAA gave them: the existence of a playoff or not is the whole basis for the divisions’ identity.

The college football rankings will be here shortly. The lineal titles will also be updated to reflect the Kentucky upset.