Football

NFL Schedule: Wild Card Playoffs

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One thing I get to do with these schedule posts is show off one of the big advantages of my Playoff Picture format. Sure, the teams are in the wrong order, but still. No Lineal Titles during the playoffs this year; the Chargers will take it into the offseason.

AFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION
LEADERS		 WILD CARD
WEST
48-8		 512-4 Sun 4:30 PM ET (PIT 13-21½)
Jim Nantz, Phil Simms
SOUTH
310-6		 69-7 Sat 4:30 PM ET (HOU 20¾-17¾)
Tom Hammond, Mike Mayock, Alex Flanagan
NORTH
212-4		 v. highest remaining
1/15 1PM ET
EAST
113-3		 v. lowest remaining
1/14 8PM ET
NFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION
LEADERS		 WILD CARD NOTES
EAST
49-7		 510-6 Sun 1PM ET (NYG 22¼-25¼)
Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Pam Oliver
SOUTH
313-3		 610-6 Sat 8PM ET (NO 24¼-35¼)
Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya
WEST
213-3		 v. highest remaining
1/14 4:30 PM ET
NORTH
115-1		 v. lowest remaining
1/15 4:30 PM ET

NFL Schedule: Week 17

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AFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION
LEADERS		 WILD CARD NOTES
WEST
48-7		 510-4 TEAMS AT 8-7 LISTED
IN REVERSE ORDER
OF LAST WEEK
(WOULD BE BROKEN BY
STRENGTH OF VICTORY)
8-7
SOUTH
310-5		 69-6
CLINCHED
NORTH
211-4		 8-7
11-4 8-7
EAST
112-3		 8-7
CLINCHED
NFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION
LEADERS		 WILD CARD NOTES
EAST
48-7		 510-5 NFC EAST LOSER
ELIMINATED;
LAST NFC PLAYOFF SPOT
TO BE DETERMINED
8-7
SOUTH
312-3		 69-6
CLINCHED
WEST
212-3		 8-7
CLINCHED
NORTH
114-1
CLINCHED

The NFL Schedule post is the first post of 2012, because it took so long for me to find out for sure what Compass was doing that I just gave up. With no SNF Flex Schedule Watch, the playoff picture moves back to the Schedule post; this is one point in favor of putting the playoff picture on this post full-time.

Week 17 never feels like a regular season week, especially with the double double-header, and the NFL has made it less so in recent years. On the other hand, there are a grand total of three games this weekend with no meaning whatsoever other than draft picks no one cares about because they aren’t the Luck pick, and I’ll show you what’s at stake in every one.

If all games go according to the point spread, your playoff teams are, according to ESPN’s Playoff Machine: AFC = byes: Patriots and Ravens; Titans @ Texans, Steelers @ Broncos; NFC = byes: Packers and Niners; Falcons @ Saints, Lions @ Giants.

What is the Median Expected Score?

Away MXS Home Time (ET) TV DTV Announcers SIRIUS Notes
Away Home
#26(5-10) 18¾-26¾ #T15(7-8) Sun 1:00 PM 711 Ron Pitts, Charles Davis 139 92 Aaaaaaand the very first game is one of those meaningless ones as the former Dream Team looks to end on a high note.
(10-5) 22¾-18¾ (14-1) Sun 1:00 PM 712 Thom Brennaman, Brian Billick, Laura Okmin 85 104 Well, the Lions have no chance to lock down the 5 against the Packers! …what’s that? They aren’t unbeaten and are resting everybody? Oh.
#14(8-7) 18¼-21¼ #23(5-10) Sun 1:00 PM 704 Greg Gumbel, Dan Dierdorf 86 136 Jets are fighting for a playoff spot, but the Dolphins are more dangerous than they look.
#22(6-9) 23¼-30¾ (12-3) Sun 1:00 PM 707 Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Pam Oliver 138 125 Yeah, the Saints are playing for a bye, but you know the Fox slate is lame when Buck and Co have the early spot on a doubleheader.
(12-3) 23¼-12¼ (7-8) Sun 1:00 PM 709 Chris Myers, Tim Ryan 137 117 The Rams should make it easy for the Niners to lock down a first-round bye.
#21(7-8) 19½-21½ #T28(3-12) Sun 1:00 PM 708 Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston, Tony Siragusa 135 94 Another meaningless game as the Bears just try to finish at .500.
#17(8-7) 20½-18½ (10-5) Sun 1:00 PM 706 Bill Macatee, Steve Tasker 106 128 The Texans have nothing to play for, but tell me the Titans won’t force a strength-of-victory tiebreaker for the last spot.
(2-13) 16¾-20¼ #27(4-11) Sun 1:00 PM 710 Spero Dedes, Steve Beuerlein 113 112 It’s the final resolution of the Andrew Luck Sweepstakes!
#25(6-9) 19¾-30¼ (12-3) Sun 1:00 PM 705 Don Criqui, Randy Cross 134 93 The Patriots can lock down the AFC’s seed; anyone want to tell them they don’t deserve it?
(11-4) 20-13½ #T28(4-11) Sun 4:15 PM 716 Kevin Harlan, Solomon Wilcots 135 92 The Steelers need a win if they want the division crown and a first-round bye.
(6-9) 17-20 (8-7) Sun 4:15 PM 717 Jim Nantz, Phil Simms 132 86 For all Tebow’s magic, he needs it to last one more game to get into the playoffs at all.
(11-4) 20½-18 (9-6) Sun 4:15 PM 715 Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts 134 94 The Ravens want to lock down the division, but Dalton and the Bengals can lock down a playoff spot.
#19(7-8) 19-22 #20(7-8) Sun 4:15 PM 714 Sam Rosen, Chad Pennington 139 112 Our last meaningless game means a second NFC East team will finish at .500 for once!
#30(4-11) 17½-28 (9-6) Sun 4:15 PM 713 Dick Stockton, John Lynch 136 117 With only one playoff spot still to go in the NFC, this is what passes for a Fox feature game: Atlanta maybe playing for the 5.
#18(7-8) 22½-25½ #T15(8-7) Sun 4:15 PM 718 Marv Albert, Rich Gannon 85 93 The Raiders could claim the division – but have an outside shot at the wild card if they don’t.
#12(8-7) 22-26 (8-7) Sun 8:20 PM Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya 92 93 Final game of the regular season is the NFC East title game.

Simulated Experts’ Fantasy League: Championship Week

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Worldwide Leaders got an early 15.8-point head start after the Thursday night game, with some production from Donald Brown but mostly 11 points from kicker Neil Rackers. Ray Rice, however, scored a big touchdown in the first half of his game with the Browns to give College Busters a slim lead. Jabar Gaffney picked up a receiving touchdown of his own to help College Busters pull away to a fairly comfortable lead heading into the late games, 62.7-40.8, as Worldwide Leaders failed to get double-digit production out of anybody. No one scored any touchdowns, and Mike Wallace was the most productive at 82 yards.

When Alex Smith proved to have a disappointing day, with no touchdowns and less than 200 all-purpose yards, the writing appeared to be on the wall for ESPN, cursing themselves for not shoring up their quarterback position, even with one more player still to play in the primetime games than College Busters. Matthew Stafford had a 378-yard, 3-touchdown day, good for nearly 28 points and giving YHOO a lead of over 56 points. Worldwide Leaders would need Jordy Nelson and Jimmy Graham to average 28 points and have Michael Turner basically be shut out, which would basically be a miracle. Nelson would do his part, scoring two touchdowns and 23.5 points, and Turner only scored 7.5 points, but Graham only put up 10.2 points of his own, well short of what was necessary.

Although College Busters snuck into the playoffs as a 4 seed, perhaps it’s fitting for the title to go to Yahoo, who was at the forefront of the fantasy phenomenon, rode fantasy to a position of being the most popular sports site, more so even than ESPN, and remains the most popular fantasy site of them all. A little poetic justice, perhaps.

Meanwhile, Ron Burgundy All-Stars pulled off another upset of Swimsuit Issues in the third-place game, thanks in large part to big days from Cam Newton and Victor Cruz, while SI once again got disappointing performaces, with Drew Brees the only touchdown-scoring starter. Commissioner’s Favorite got stung by the Tony Romo injury and Team Infograph rolled over them, while Inside Information and The SportsLine had the game of the weekend, with FLEA winning by less than two points with depth across the board (Michael Vick, Marshaun Lynch, and four others in double digits) over two or three great performances (Arian Foster and Brandon Marshall scored over twenty, while Matt Moore came close) and some good ones (Malcom Floyd and the Bengals defense scored over ten points, while Michael Bush scored 9.4). Finally, Indy Tea Party and Wisdom of Crowds had the two highest-scoring performances of the week to knock off Takedown Glaze and Politically Incorrect.

The SNF Week 17 Situations

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I’ve realized I’ve had reason to link to this post from last year, just to back up how narrow NBC’s choices for Week 17 really were. Hence, this post, to explain that with the NFL’s all-divisional lineup Week 17, there aren’t that many scenarios that produce a game guaranteed to remain a win-and-in, lose-and-out game after all the other games are played, which is what the NFL likes to plug in to the Sunday night timeslot. Namely, two teams in the same division competing for the same single playoff spot, either division or wild card, and playing each other.

Consider, for a second, two tied teams in the same division that don’t play each other. If the team with the tiebreaker wins, the team without it has nothing to play for. If you put the team with the tiebreaker in primetime, then if the team without the tiebreaker loses, the team with it also has nothing to play for. Putting the two teams a game apart just makes it worse. You need the two teams to be tied AND you need the tiebreaker situation if both teams win to be different from the tiebreaker situation if both teams lose. But the first three tiebreakers are: division games, common games, and conference games, and the NFL has made sure both teams are playing a game that’s all three. Remember, we needed both teams to have the same result, so all three tiebreakers will move in the same direction as well. The next tiebreaker is strength of victory, which you can’t count on.

The situation for the wild card, when competing against teams in other divisions, isn’t much better. The same constraints as in the first half of the last paragraph apply. The first tiebreaker (after head-to-head) is conference games, which both teams are playing. The next tiebreaker is common games, where an opening appears, since common games among teams in different divisions are rare, unless the teams’ divisions played each other. It’s conceivable for one team to play a common game while the other doesn’t… but then the best case scenario is that the two teams finish tied in the common games. And what’s the next tiebreaker? Why, strength of victory, of course.

However, the other reason I wanted to make this post was a post on Pro Football Talk suggesting Broncos-Chiefs might have been selected if the Chargers had lost. While I had said the result that needed to be different was the Chiefs beating the Raiders, and so far as I know that’s still correct, I realized there really isn’t anything going against that scenario. So that provides a loophole that broadens things out a little: if a team would lose a tiebreaker against two other teams in the same division a game back and playing each other, or would win a tiebreaker against two other teams in the same division also tied with them and playing each other, that team has an SNF-Week-17 ready game.

So Bengals-Jets two years ago might have happened, if two of the other wild card contenders were also playing each other. But I suspect the NFL would prefer that sort of game, where one team has nothing to play for, not happen – though it’s far better if it’s a team out of the playoffs, like the Chiefs, than one in the playoffs and resting up for it, like the Bengals two years ago.

Last-Minute Remarks on SNF Week 17 Picks

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Week 17 (January 1):

  • Tentative game: None (NBC will show game with guaranteed playoff implications).
  • Games mentioned on last week’s Watch and their records: Cowboys (8-7)-Giants (8-7), Broncos (8-7)-Chiefs (6-9).
  • Impact of Sunday and Monday Night Football: None, though announcement will be made before either game is over anyway.
  • Analysis: NBC breathed a huge sigh of relief when the Giants won (and then started hyperventilating again when Tony Romo got injured). The Cowboys and Giants will enter their Week 17 showdown tied for the division lead. The Broncos did get shockingly blown out by the lowly Bills (shades of the pre-Tebow era), and the Lions finished off the Chargers, but the Chiefs couldn’t do their part.
  • Final prediction: Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants.

Simulated Experts’ Fantasy League: Semifinals Recap

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College Busters was the only playoff team with a player in the Thursday Night game, getting their matchup off to a roaring start with 12.5 points from Michael Turner. Ron Burgundy All-Stars and Worldwide Leaders each had a player in the Saturday Night game between the Bucs and Cowboys, but LeGarrette Blount had a disappointing day for KFFL, and ESPN took the lead on the back of the Cowboys defense 13-2.1.

Drew Brees only slowly caught fire to propel Swimsuit Issues in the lead by halftime of the early games, while KFFL and ESPN traded paint despite ESPN’s early lead and ESPN having more players in play. Cam Newton and the Dolphins defense helped KFFL stay competitive, while Jordy Nelson, Hakeem Nicks, and Neil Rackers had no score for ESPN after the first half. Brees eventually had an incredibly productive day (nearly 35 points), giving Swimsuit Issues an over 35-point lead heading into the late games, while Donald Brown keyed Worldwide Leaders to an eventual huge lead, thanks to his 80-yard touchdown run.

College Busters roared into the lead when the Eagles started their game out strong with two sacks, an interception, and a touchdown return. Suddenly Swimsuit Issues, which had been the dominant team all season, looked like it might very well miss the title game. Following the late games, Swimsuit Issues had a .04 lead over College Busters, and that mostly because LeSean McCoy managed to get a long run for a touchdown late. It would come down to Antonio Brown and the Ravens defense for Swimsuit Issues against Ray Rice and Michael Crabtree for College Busters.

The first round was Ray Rice against the Ravens defense, and it was an unmitigated disaster for Swimsuit Issues. Rice did pretty well, putting up 11 points, but the Ravens defense let Phillip Rivers march up and down on them. SI would need Brown to score 17 more points than Crabtree to move on to the championship game. Luckily, Crabtree had only 35 receiving yards on the day. But Brown only mustered 59, with neither making the end zone, and just like that Swimsuit Issues was out.

A strong day for Brent Celek pulled Ron Burgundy All-Stars into the lead, but not by much. All Worldwide Leaders needed was eight points from Alex Smith, a relatively trivial number for a quarterback, to make the championship game. Smith would end up going for 187 yards and a touchdown, setting up Worldwide Leaders for a championship game showdown with the surprising College Busters.

Worldwide Leaders will put out an impressive lineup: Chris Johnson and Donald Brown (fresh off a breakout 22-point performance) at running back, Steve Smith, Jordy Nelson, and Mike Wallace at wideout, Jimmy Graham at tight end, and Neil Rackers at kicker. The main weak spots, if you can call them that, are Alex Smith at quarterback and the Cowboys defense, and the latter is the only starter on ESPN’s roster not projected to score in double digits by Fleaflicker – and even then they’re off a double-digit performance.

But Fleaflicker also still projects College Busters to come out on top. Quarterback Matthew Stafford and running backs Ray Rice and Michael Turner are some of the best in the game, and Shonn Greene and tight end Aaron Hernandez aren’t slouches either. Kicker Stephen Gostkowski and the Eagles defense (interestingly, playing the Cowboys defense) are strong as well. YHOO’s weak spot is at wideout with Jabar Gaffney and Michael Crabtree. Will Worldwide Leaders’ wideouts win the day, or will College Busters get enough production from their studs to finish their Cinderella run? Only time will tell.

Meanwhile, Swimsuit Issues isn’t expected to have too much of a problem with Ron Burgundy All-Stars in the third-place game. Commissioner’s Favorite managed to upset The SportsLine to set up a fifth-place showdown with Team Infograph, while Takedown Glaze managed to crush the higher-seeded Politically Incorrect to set up a showdown with an Indy Tea Party team that similarly demolished Wisdom of Crowds. Outside the championship game, the closest contest could be CBS’ seventh-place showdown with Inside Information, where both sides are actually expected to score more than either title game participant, with Arian Foster and Michael Bush keying The SportsLine (and Malcom Floyd the only starter not projected to crack double digits) and Michael Vick expected to have a big day alongside Calvin Johnson for Inside Information.

NFL Schedule: Week 16

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The Pats, Ravens, Steelers, and Texans are 10-4 or better, despite the inconsistency some of them have shown. No AFC team is 9-5. The Packers are 13-1; the Saints and Niners are 11-3. No NFC team is 10-4. Who wants to bet that your Super Bowl teams will come from that group? Dark horses: Broncos, Lions, Falcons.

Had trouble finding consistent numbers for Rams-Steelers, and no wonder, with a new record low MXS for St. Louis that could be as low as 10¼.

What is the Median Expected Score?

Away MXS Home Time (ET) TV DTV Announcers NTR SIRIUS Notes
Away Home
(10-4) 23-17 (1-13) Thu 8:20 PM Brad Nessler, Mike Mayock, Alex Flanagan WW1 92 93 Now that the Colts have won, can they keep it up? Not against the division champs on a short week.
#23(5-9) 19½-29 (11-3) Sat 1:00 PM 705 Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts USA 125 92 Division? Check. First-round bye and seed? Still some work to do, but the Fins will help.
#27(4-10) 16¼-23¾ #20(7-7) Sat 1:00 PM 707 Bill Macatee, Steve Tasker 127 117 Tennessee is trying to keep hope alive for a playoff berth and hopes a win over a division foe will help.
(4-10) 20¼-27¾ (5-9) Sat 1:00 PM 711 Sam Rosen, Chad Pennington 136 112 Cam Newton’s escapades have resulted in wins recently – and passing the Bucs for third in the division.
(4-10) 12¾-25¾ (10-4) Sat 1:00 PM 706 Spero Dedes, Rich Gannon 106 93 Surely the Ravens won’t look nearly as bad playing the Browns?
#T17(7-7) 18-22½ (8-6) Sat 1:00 PM 712 Thom Brennaman, Brian Billick, Laura Okmin 139 113 Two teams trying to scratch and claw their way into the playoffs.
#30(2-12) 18¾-25¼ #25(5-9) Sat 1:00 PM 710 Chris Myers, Tim Ryan 128 134 Adrian Peterson says he’s playing for fantasy owners, so people who win their titles because of him, send him a thank-you card.
(8-6) 22¼-19¼ #26(5-9) Sat 1:00 PM 704 Jim Nantz, Phil Simms CMP 91 104 The Broncos look to lock down the division against a team in freefall.
(2-12) 11-25 (10-4) Sat 1:00 PM 713 Dick Stockton, John Lynch 138 85 Rams still very much alive in the Luck Sweepstakes, and an angry Steelers team should help.
#T17(7-7) 20-22 #22(6-8) Sat 1:00 PM 708 Kevin Harlan, Solomon Wilcots 94 137 Fresh off their upset of the Pack, can the Chiefs keep their slim division hopes alive against one of their foes for the crown?
#15(7-7) 21½-24½ #12(8-6) Sat 1:00 PM 709 Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston, Tony Siragusa WW1 132 86 Battle of New York will determine whether Giants-Cowboys is a division title game on Sunday night.
#14(7-7) 24¾-27¼ (9-5) Sat 4:05 PM 714 Greg Gumbel, Dan Dierdorf WW1 86 135 Lions look to lock down a playoff spot, while the Bolts look to keep their slim hopes alive.
#19(6-8) 24¼-26¼ (8-6) Sat 4:15 PM 715 Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Pam Oliver CMP 92 93 Eagles look to keep their not-as-slim-as-you-think playoff hopes alive against the division leaders.
(11-3) 20¼-17¾ #16(7-7) Sat 4:15 PM 716 Ron Pitts, Charles Davis USA 85 94 Can the Hawks’ magical comeback continue against the class of the division?
#21(7-7) 15¾-28¾ (13-1) Sun 8:20 PM Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya WW1 92 93 The Pack either seek to bounce back and lock down the seed, or start resting starters, against a division rival.
(9-5) 23¼-29¾ (11-3) Mon 8:30 PM Mike Tirico, Jon Gruden, Ron Jaworski, Suzy Kolber WW1 92 93 Game of the week sees Falcons trying to steal division from Saints.

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 15

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NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For Weeks 10-15, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind, hence why it contradicts the above – and the page it comes from, for that matter):

  • Begins Sunday of Week 11
  • In effect during Weeks 11-17
  • Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
  • The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:15 p.m. ET.
  • The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
  • The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:15 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
  • The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
  • Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
  • NFL schedules all games.
  • Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
  • Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and cannot protect any games Week 17. Games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling, but are now protected after Week 5; however, they are back to Week 4 this year, probably for the same reason as that first year: NBC hosting a Christmas night game and the other games being moved to Saturday.
  • Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. At this writing, no team is completely tapped out at any measure; five teams have five primetime appearances each, but all of them have at least one game that can be flexed out. A list of all teams’ primetime appearances is in my first two posts for Weeks 4 and 5.
  • Last year’s selection of primetime games was weighted rather heavily towards Fox games. This year, the selection currently leans CBS 22, FOX 20 (though if I miscounted one game it may be even). My guess is that the balance will continue to lean towards the AFC. Weeks 10, 12, 13, and 15 are all CBS games, while Weeks 11 and 14 are FOX.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 17 (January 1):

AFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION
LEADERS		 WILD CARD WAITING IN
THE WINGS (6-8)
WEST
48-6		 510-4
2 teams at 7-7
SOUTH
310-4		 68-6
CLINCHED
NORTH
210-4		 8-6
10-4 7-7
EAST
111-3		 7-7
CLINCHED 7-7
NFC Playoff Picture
DIVISION
LEADERS		 WILD CARD WAITING IN
THE WINGS (7-7)
EAST
48-6		 59-5
7-7
SOUTH
311-3		 69-5
9-5
WEST
211-3
CLINCHED
NORTH
113-1
CLINCHED
  • Tentative game: None (NBC will show game with guaranteed playoff implications).
  • Possible games: Cowboys-Giants, Broncos-Chiefs. Chargers-Raiders is out because a Broncos win Week 17 would lock up the division no matter what else happens these next two weeks.
  • Cowboys-Giants will be picked if: The Giants win OR the Cowboys lose AND the situation below doesn’t happen. A Giants win Week 16 knocks the Eagles out of the playoffs. If the Giants lose, a Cowboys win locks up the division for them, while a Cowboys loss leaves open the possibility that the Giants would already be eliminated before primetime.
  • Broncos-Chiefs will be picked if: The Giants lose AND the Broncos lose AND the Chiefs beat the Raiders AND the Chargers lose. It’s a lot to have happen, and the Broncos are playing the floundering Bills, but if the Chiefs beat the Broncos they would win even a three-way tiebreaker, thanks in large part to what would be a sweep of the Raiders. Because NBC hasn’t had the Tebow fill they wanted, they might choose this game even if the Giants win, but you know Fox is salivating more at the prospect of Cowboys-Giants than CBS is salivating at the prospect of Broncos-Chiefs. If neither of these scenarios happen? NBC is screwed. That’s why I think they might go with Cowboys-Giants even if the Cowboys haven’t done so much as clinch the division. NBC will be rooting hard for the Giants on Saturday, and if they lose we’ll learn a lot about the NFL’s priorities and contingencies.

Breaking down what the NFL’s new TV deals mean

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The NFL may have just made the biggest change to its television and week-by-week scheduling structure since it lifted the blackout on sold-out home games… without changing any networks.

Last week, the NFL renewed its deals with CBS, Fox, and NBC for another nine years through 2022. One part of the deal will involve “expanded flex scheduling”, which apparently means NBC will be able to flex out of games as early as Week 5, but only if the game is a disaster waiting to happen like the Colts’ games this year. But it will also mean that games could flip between CBS and Fox. Before this point, there was an AFC network and an NFC network, and which games aired on which networks was set in stone. Now, while the rules for which games air on which networks will remain the same, some games may air on the other network on occasion. The situation we saw a few weeks ago, where Broncos-Vikings, normally a CBS game, flipped to Fox, will become more common. The exact rules haven’t been decided on, but one reason to flip games may be to shore up the second half of the doubleheader, though Broncos-Vikings became the premier game of the first half of the doubleheader.

That means that starting in 2014, my SNF Flex Schedule Watch could be very different… and I may have to give up the ghost entirely if the rules end up being too complicated.

The NFL also made a change to how it divvies up playoff games. NBC has traded in one of its Wild Card games for a divisional game. Most of the smart money has ESPN picking up the Wild Card game NBC gave up, putting a playoff game on cable for the first time. The third divisional game could conceivably rotate between CBS and Fox, go to ESPN as well, or go to NBC as well. My money is that it’ll go to NBC, balancing the number of playoff games on the broadcast networks before the Super Bowl at three apiece. Rotating between CBS and Fox would be hard logistically, and the NFL doesn’t seem to be the sort of entity that lets ESPN have playoff games that deep.

The NFL Network will also expand its Thursday Night schedule. This doesn’t necessarily mean selling the back half of the Thursday Night package is off the table, if it means going to 10-12 as a “stepping stone” to a full-season split schedule and as a way to put more pressure on those holdouts that don’t carry NFLN, but I could see it happening (hopefully it doesn’t mean the NFL will keep the additional NFLN games and try for an 18-game schedule again). However, the Thanksgiving Night game is moving to NBC, which doesn’t really surprise me, but does seem to be a good sign for NBC Sports Network’s prospects of winning the Thursday Night package (although if NBCSN does win it’s likely to be only seven games as a result of this). By my calculations, that means the Thursday night schedule would begin somewhere around Week 4-6.

Finally, NBC Sports Network will throw its hat into the ring of the Sunday morning pregame shows. That’s another good sign for NBC Sports’ prospects of winning the Thursday night package; however, if the NFL went with Turner then every single contender in the sports TV wars would have a Sunday morning pregame show.

Sport-Specific Networks
5 5.5 4.5 2.5 0 1.5

2011 College Football Rankings – Week 14

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For the past few weeks I’ve been resigned to the fact that an LSU-Alabama rematch was probably the least bad option for the national title game. It would pit two teams from the same conference that met in an unwatchable snoozefest in the regular season and include a non-conference champion, but none of the other one-loss teams were that attractive.

However… is there any sort of serious case to be made against Oklahoma State?

The main case against Oklahoma State seems to be that they lost to an Iowa State team that’s barely bowl-eligible. That’s it. I’m pretty sure teams have made the national title game with worse single losses. Forget about conference champions; Oklahoma State might have a better resume than Alabama even discounting the championship question. I suspect the real reason people dismiss Oklahoma State for the national title game is because they’re not one of the biggest name teams. As I said some weeks ago, people don’t quite believe that the “little brother” in the Bedlam rivalry is really a national title contender. Suppose we took Oklahoma State’s resume and applied it to Oklahoma, or even took Oklahoma’s resume and removed losses to Baylor and Oklahoma State, meaning their one loss would be even worse: to non-bowl-eligible Texas Tech. Would anyone seriously think Oklahoma wouldn’t make the national title game over Alabama?

It’s becoming more and more apparent that the BCS isn’t even about handing out the plum picks to the top five or six conferences, but about protecting the standing of the most prestigious schools. Alabama making the national title game over Oklahoma State proves that the BCS discriminates even against teams with moderately big names, let alone the small non-BCS schools, to protect a small cadre of name teams. It tells you everything you need to know about both why there has been so much realignment chaos the past two years, and why all of it is ultimately beside the point. At that point, perhaps it’s time to just admit it, and put the most prestigous schools together in the top level of a promotion-relegation system.

As it turns out, in a year that threatened to emulate every single BCS controversy from years past, the most similar case to this year would probably be 2006. People that year were gearing up for a national championship game between an undefeated team and a team from the same conference the undefeated team beat in the regular season. Then in the last week, a champion of a different conference was moved ahead of the non-champion despite the non-champion not playing. The difference between Ohio State-Michigan and LSU-Alabama? In 2006, Florida was a name team. Oklahoma State is not. Is it really that simple?

Rankings include the Army-Navy game, but not any of the bowls that have been played so far.

How the C Ratings are tabulated: First, A Ratings are tabulated by multiplying the total score ratio, which is expressed by (points-opponents’ points)/points, by the winning percentage. Score ratio minimizes the effect of running up the score. Next, B Points for each game are tabulated by (margin of victory)/(opponent’s A rating)+/-1 for wins, and -(margin of loss)/(1-opponent’s A Rating)+/-1 for losses. The “+/-” is + for road games and – for home ones. The total number of B Points is multiplied by the A Rating to get the B Rating. Finally, the C Rating is tabulated by taking one-tenth the difference between the team’s B Rating and the average of his opponents’ B Ratings and taking the result off the B Rating. The three ratings go A, B, C across. Click here to see the complete ratings.

1 LSU SEC ’06 Boise St.
13-0 LW: A Rat: .835 B Rating: 76.655 C Rating: 67.552 AP: 1 BCS: 1
LSU won the first game on Bama’s home turf. Now they’ll have near-home field advantage for the rematch.
2 Oklahoma State B12 AP Title
11-1 LW: A Rat: .662 B Rating: 56.201 C Rating: 47.768 AP: 3 BCS: 3
Little Brother beat Big Brother so convincingly it created a national title groundswell – that wasn’t enough. Now Luck and the Cardinal await in the Fiesta.
3 Alabama SEC BCS Title
11-1 LW: A Rat: .780 B Rating: 54.428 C Rating: 47.050 AP: 2 BCS: 2
It’ll be a tall order for the Tide to get their revenge.
4 Wisconsin B10 Big 10 Chmp.
11-2 LW: A Rat: .661 B Rating: 44.210 C Rating: 35.929 AP: 9 BCS: 10
Sparty kept it close, but the Badgers pulled it out and the polls moved them into the top 10. But Wisconsin could do even more against Oregon in their second straight Rose Bowl.
5 Boise State MWC Maaco Bowl
11-1 LW: A Rat: .711 B Rating: 43.928 C Rating: 35.298 AP: 8 BCS: 7
A BCS ranking nets the Broncos a date with an Arizona State squad that fumbled away a potential trip to the Pac-12 Title Game down the stretch.
6 Oregon P12 Pac-12 Chp.
11-2 LW: A Rat: .612 B Rating: 36.178 C Rating: 29.920 AP: 6 BCS: 5
Oregon impressed everyone with their demolition of UCLA, but the Badgers will be a tall order in the Rose Bowl.
7 Oklahoma B12 Insight Bowl
9-3 LW: A Rat: .516 B Rating: 29.405 C Rating: 23.918 AP: 19 BCS: 14
Demolished, but by a national title contender; people continue to overreact to their two tight losses. How bad might Iowa end up looking?
8 Houston USA TicketCity
12-1 LW: A Rat: .689 B Rating: 32.712 C Rating: 23.802 AP: 20 BCS: 19
Losing to a ranked team should not be that horrible… but Penn State may be the next-best opponent they’ve played all season. How did the TicketCity bowl get two teams THAT good?
9 Stanford P12 Fiesta Bowl
11-1 LW: A Rat: .686 B Rating: 27.329 C Rating: 20.817 AP: 4 BCS: 4
Stanford will be trying to prove they’re even better than the polls have them – and that Luck should have still won the Heisman – against Oklahoma State.
10 Michigan B10 Sugar Bowl
10-2 LW: A Rat: .590 B Rating: 24.777 C Rating: 20.474 AP: 13 BCS: 13
A little surprised there’s enough support for the Wolverines to put them in a BCS bowl, but you have to imagine it’s more for the name value than what the ratings say.
11 Southern Miss USA C-USA Chmp.
11-2 LW: #18 A Rat: .586 B Rating: 21.956 C Rating: 14.893 AP: 22 BCS: 21
What does the huge upset net the Eagles? A move up the polls of 2-3 spots and a trip to Hawaii to face Nevada, while Houston gets set to face Penn State. No respect, I tells ya.
12 TCU MWC MWC Champ.
10-2 LW: #14 A Rat: .604 B Rating: 16.459 C Rating: 9.972 AP: 16 BCS: 18
The Poinsettia Bowl will be a showdown of champions between TCU and the champions of the WAC, Louisiana Tech.
13 South Carolina SEC Capital One
10-2 LW: #16 A Rat: .560 B Rating: 12.248 C Rating: 9.160 AP: 10 BCS: 9
The Gamecocks move up considerably without even playing and with only two of the teams they passed playing and losing, thanks to Clemson’s big win. Now Nebraska awaits.
14 Arkansas SEC Cotton Bowl
10-2 LW: #15 A Rat: .545 B Rating: 13.190 C Rating: 8.910 AP: 7 BCS: 6
Kansas State is way overrated. How will it look if the Razorbacks blow them out of the water?
15 USC P12 ’09 Boise St.
10-2 LW: A Rat: .559 B Rating: 13.086 C Rating: 8.799 AP: 5 SBNBlog: 9
Matt Barkley, come back. With USC off probation and Luck and James NFL-bound, the Pac-12 is yours for the taking.
16 Georgia SEC Outback Bowl
10-3 LW: #12 A Rat: .506 B Rating: 9.744 C Rating: 6.765 AP: 18 BCS: 16
With regard to the polls, was Georgia hurt by playing in the conference title game? No matter: the SEC’s tie-in structure means it all works out.
17 Notre Dame   Chmps Sprts
8-4 LW: #17 A Rat: .402 B Rating: 9.125 C Rating: 6.264 — —
An ACC-heavy schedule for the Golden Domers will continue against Florida State.
18 Virginia Tech ACC Sugar Bowl
11-2 LW: A Rat: .549 B Rating: 9.543 C Rating: 6.215 AP: 17 BCS: 11
You want to know what enabled the outrage of V-Tech going to a BCS bowl? The BCS keeping them knocking on the door of the top 10.
19 Toledo MAC Military Bowl
8-4 LW: #19 A Rat: .412 B Rating: 8.182 C Rating: 4.590 — —
What does Toledo have to show for their season? A showdown against an Air Force team that’s barely bowl-eligible (and continung what’s becoming a tradition of the Military Bowl picking service academies).
20 Florida State ACC Chmps Sprts
8-4 LW: #20 A Rat: .470 B Rating: 7.930 C Rating: 4.152 AP: 25 Coaches: 25
Poll respect aside, Notre Dame will be a tall order for the Seminoles.
21 Nebraska B10 Capital One
9-3 LW: #21 A Rat: .475 B Rating: 4.320 C Rating: 2.513 AP: 21 BCS: 20
Probably their best bowl fit, but the Huskers will have a tall order trying to stop the Gamecocks.
22 Clemson* ACC Prncton/Yale
10-3 LW: A Rat: .457 B Rating: 4.998 C Rating: 1.924 AP: 14 BCS: 15
Stumbles down the stretch don’t matter now, becaue the Tigers are ACC Champions and headed to the BCS.
23 Texas A&M B12 Meineke C. C.
6-6 LW: #22 A Rat: .310 B Rating: 4.757 C Rating: 1.307 — —
I wonder if A&M will show Northwestern how good they’ve really been?
24 Michigan State B10 Outback Bowl
10-3 LW: #23 A Rat: .507 B Rating: 2.188 C Rating: -1.066 AP: 12 BCS: 17
The Spartans kept it close enough against a good Wisconsin team that they move in lockstep with the surrounding teams that didn’t play. But good luck against the Bulldogs.
25 Penn State
(9-3, .456, -.489, -1.811)		 B10 TicketCity


2010 TCU Title: #35 Baylor (9-3), .435, -3.743, -5.744

Off Top 25: #26 Louisiana Tech (was #25)

Watch List: #26 Louisiana Tech (Poinsettia Bowl), #27 Northern Illinois (GoDaddy.com Bowl)

Other Positive B Ratings: #30 Utah State* (Famous Idaho Potato Bowl), Ohio (Famous Idaho Potato Bowl), #34 Arkansas State (GoDaddy.com Bowl) (*=Newly Positive)

Bottom 10: #111 Colorado, #112 UAB, #113 Middle Tenn. St., #114 UNLV, #115 Kansas, #116 Memphis, #117 Tulane, #118 Florida Atlantic, #119 New Mexico, #120 Akron

Best bowl: BCS Championship Game, LSU v. Alabama, 1/9 5:30pm PT, ESPN
Best non-Championship Game bowl: Rose Bowl, Wisconsin v. Oregon, 1/2 2pm PT, ESPN
Best non-BCS bowl: TicketCity Bowl, Houston v. Penn State, 1/2 9am PT, ESPNU