Football

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 11

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NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind):

  • Begins Sunday of Week 11
  • In effect during Weeks 11-17
  • Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
  • The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:20 p.m. ET.
  • The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
  • The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:20 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
  • The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
  • Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
  • NFL schedules all games.
  • Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
  • Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and could not protect any games Week 17 in 2007. Unless I find out otherwise, I’m assuming that’s still the case this year, especially with no tentative game listed Week 17. When looking up info on what the protected games might be, I found out that games were protected after Week FIVE this year, and presumably in some of the previous years. Previously all I knew was that games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling.
  • Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.
  • A rule that may have come to light late last year but that, given its restrictiveness and lateness in coming to light, I’m having trouble accepting, is that the balance of primetime games taken from FOX and CBS can’t go beyond 22-20 one way or the other. The current tally is FOX 17, CBS 21; with tentative games, the tally is FOX 20, CBS 21.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 22):

  • Selected game: Philadelphia @ Chicago.

Week 12 (November 29):

  • Selected game: Pittsburgh @ Baltimore.

Week 13 (December 6):

  • Selected game: Minnesota @ Arizona.

Week 14 (December 13):

  • Tentative game: Philadelphia @ NY Giants
  • Prospects: It’s an NFC East game (always = ratings), and while it doesn’t currently have the NFC East lead on the line it’s still a battle of playoff contenders. Still a pretty good shot to keep its spot – the Giants’ troubles might help it in the long run if the game would have become lopsided as opposed to 6-4 v. 6-4. However, there are strong flex contenders…
  • Protected games: Chargers-Cowboys (CBS) and Packers-Bears (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Bengals-Vikings, Broncos-Colts, and Saints-Falcons all remain very strong contenders. Jags-Dolphins worthy of note but not likely to go anywhere.
  • Analysis: With the Broncos at 6-4 and no longer leading the division, you can pretty much eliminate Broncos-Colts if the Colts lose, and even if the Colts win, picking them would shut NBC out of the Colts the rest of the year, although that’s not as much of a problem as it sounds given the only half-decent team the Colts face the rest of the way is already scheduled for NFL Network. With the Favre factor, Bengals-Vikings at 7-3 v. 9-1 looks mighty compelling and appears to be the current favorite (but it would probably mean three straight weeks of Favremania and limit NBC’s ability to flex the Vikings in again later), and Saints-Falcons has the same undefeated factor as the Colts (but the Falcons are still worse than the Broncos). And then there’s the existing tentative game. For Saints-Falcons to even have a shot it needs both teams to win and the Broncos (or maybe Colts) to lose. If the Eagles and Giants both win I would favor it keeping the spot given the problems with the other games and the NFL’s reticence to pull the flex; if the Broncos and Colts both win it becomes difficult to argue against. Otherwise, and even in those situations, Bengals-Vikings looks mighty compelling – unless either team loses…

Week 15 (December 20):

  • Tentative game: Minnesota @ Carolina
  • Prospects: Still lopsided, with the Vikings 9-1 and the Panthers 4-6. NBC is already worshipping at the Favre altar Week 13 and possibly Week 14, against teams that are actually winning, not to mention the Giants Week 17 if that game has playoff implications.
  • Protected games: Packers-Steelers (Fox) and Bengals-Chargers (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Two good protected game choices mean that NBC can only select from games involving other teams with losing records. Falcons-Jets, Bears-Ravens, and sudden dark horse Dolphins-Titans are all 5-5 v. 4-6, while 49ers-Eagles is a bit better (at the cost of lopsidedness) at 6-4 v. 4-6. Given how good and otherwise appealing the Vikings are, and the NFL’s reticence to pull the flex, Vikings-Cardinals may keep its spot yet; the main point against it is lopsidedness, especially since a 4-6 team is far from out of the playoff picture, especially in the NFC (although that race may have tightened – see below).

Week 16 (December 27)

  • Tentative game: Dallas @ Washington
  • Prospects: Lopsided at 7-3 v. 3-7, but it is the NFL’s biggest rivalry so never count out its chances of keeping the spot.
  • Protected games: Ravens-Steelers (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Broncos-Eagles and Jags-Patriots, both involving nothing but teams at 6-4 or, in the case of the Pats, better. They (as well as dark horse battle of 5-5 teams Texans-Dolphins) may make appealing cases for the flex, but are they enough to sweep the NFL off its feet?

Week 17 (January 3 Playoff Positioning Watch):

  • AFC East: Patriots lead, Dolphins two back, Jets another game back, Bills another game back. New England plays Houston, the Jets play Cincinnati, Miami plays Pittsburgh and the Bills play the Colts.
  • AFC North: Bengals lead, Steelers a game back, Ravens waiting in the wings. The Bengals play the Jets, while the Steelers play the Dolphins and Baltimore plays Oakland. Browns would have to resort to tiebreakers I’m not ready to look up yet.
  • AFC South: Colts running away with it; Jags a full four back, while the Titans are down to tiebreakers. The Colts play Buffalo while the Texans play New England and the Jags play the Browns.
  • AFC West: Chargers lead, Broncos a game back, Chiefs and Raiders four back. The Broncos play the Chiefs while the Chargers play the Redskins.
  • AFC Wild Card: If the season ended today, any two of the Broncos, Jags, and Steelers would get the nod, with the Dolphins, Texans, and Ravens a game back. The Titans and Jets are waiting in the wings; the Titans play the Seahawks. Bengals-Jets and Texans-Patriots the main AFC contenders, though Dolphins-Steelers is appealing as well.
  • NFC East: Cowboys lead, Eagles and Giants a game back, Redskins mathematically in it. Cowboys and Eagles play each other, while the Giants play the Vikings.
  • NFC North: Vikings lead by 3 games over Packers with the Bears two behind that. The Vikings play the Giants while the Packers play the Cardinals and the Bears play the Lions.
  • NFC South: Saints lead by 5 over Falcons, with the Panthers a game behind that. The Saints and Panthers play each other, as do the Falcons and Bucs.
  • NFC West: Cardinals lead by 3 over 49ers with the Seahawks a game behind that and the Rams hanging on by a tiebreaker. Arizona plays Green Bay, while the Niners play the Rams and the Seahawks play the Titans.
  • NFC Wild Card: Any two of the Eagles, Giants, and Packers would get the nod if the season ended today, with the Falcons a game back and the Bears, Panthers, and Niners waiting in the wings, giving Panthers-Saints dark-horse appeal. The NFC definitely has the better games with Cowboys-Eagles, Giants-Vikings, and possibly Packers-Cardinals, but the NFL showed last year they’re more concerned with making sure the game has playoff implications no matter what happens when we get to primetime, so we’ll see how the rest of the season plays out.

Last-Minute Remarks on SNF Week 13 Picks

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Week 13 (December 6):

  • Tentative game: New England @ Miami
  • Prospects: 7-3 v. 5-5. Still lopsided.
  • Protected games: Cowboys-Giants (FOX) and Titans-Colts (CBS).
  • Other possible games mentioned on last week’s Watch and their records: Eagles (6-4)-Falcons (5-5), Vikings (9-1)-Cardinals (7-3), and Jags (6-4)-Texans (5-4).
  • Impact of Monday Night Football: Texans can move to 6-4, but…
  • Analysis: …I said last week that any game would need a perfect storm to happen to steal the flex away from Vikings-Cardinals, and the Cards won, so Favremania it is.
  • Final prediction: Minnesota Vikings @ Arizona Cardinals.
  • Current situation: No announcement yet, which could mean Jags-Texans has a shot after all, or it could mean the NFL is being insane and sticking with Pats-Dolphins.

College Football Schedule – Week 12

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All times Eastern.

TOP 25 GAMES
Kansas @ Texas 8 PM ABC Ron Franklin, Ed Cunningham
TCU @ Wyoming 2 PM mtn. Dan Gutowsky, Blaine Fowler, Natalie Vickers
Florida International @ Florida 12:30 Gameplan Larry Vettel, Nat Moore, Steve Babik
Chattanooga @ Alabama Noon SEC Net Doug Bell, Chris Doering
Boise State @ Utah State 9:30 FR ESPN2 Joe Tessitore, Rod Gilmore
Ohio State @ Michigan Noon ABC Sean McDonough, Matt Millen, Holly Rowe
Oregon @ Arizona 8 PM ABC Brent Musberger, Kirk Herbstreit, Lisa Salters
NC State @ Virginia Tech 3:30 ESPNU Todd Harris, Charles Arbuckle
Penn State @ Michigan State 3:30 ABC/ESPN
HD ABC only		 Mike Patrick, Craig James, Heather Cox
#12 Oklahoma @ #23 Texas Tech 12:30 FSN Joel Meyers, Gary Reasons, Jim Knox
Minnesota @ Iowa Noon ESPN Dave Pasch, Bob Griese, Chris Spielman
Virginia @ #15 Clemson 3:30 ABC/ESPN Bob Wischusen, Brian Griese
#16 LSU @ #22 Mississippi 3:30 CBS Verne Lundquist, Gary Danielson, Tracy Wolfson
Kansas State @ #17 Nebraska 7:30 ESPN Brad Nessler, Todd Blackledge, Erin Andrews
Colorado 28-31 #18 Oklahoma State 7:30 TH ESPN Chris Fowler, Craig James,
Jesse Palmer, Erin Andrews
California @ #19 Stanford 7:30 VS. Ron Thulin, Kelly Stouffer, Lewis Johnson
#20 Rutgers @ Syracuse 3:30 ESPN360  
Mississippi State @ #21 Arkansas Noon SEC Net Dave Neal, Andre Ware, Cara Capuano
Connecticut @ Notre Dame 2:30 NBC Tom Hammond, Pat Haden, Alex Flanagan
#25 Oregon State @ Washington State 5 PM    
WATCHLIST AND OTHER POSITIVE B POINT TEAMS
Air Force @ BYU 3:30 CBS CS Tom Hart, Aaron Taylor
Duke @ Miami (FL) Noon ESPNU Clay Matvick, David Diaz-Infante
Wisconsin @ Northwestern 3:30 BTN Wayne Larrivee, Chris Martin, Charissa Thompson
San Diego State @ Utah 4 PM VS. Tim Neverett, Glenn Parker, Lindsay Soto
Memphis @ Houston 1 PM CSS Matt Stewart, Chuck Oliver, Allison Williams
Kent State @ Temple 1 PM CSD.com  
Northern Illinois @ Ohio 2 PM CSD.com  
THIS WEEK’S OTHER HD GAMES
Buffalo 42-17 Miami (OH) 6 PM WE ESPNU Dari Nowkhah, Tom Luginbill
Central Michigan 35-3 Ball State 8 PM WE ESPN2 Dave Lamont, Trent Dilfer
Akron @ Bowling Green 5:30 FR ESPNU Kevin Negandhi, Jon Berger
North Carolina @ Boston College Noon ESPN2 Pam Ward, Ray Bentley
Maryland @ Florida State Noon Raycom Tim Brant, Rick Walker, Mike Hogewood
Purdue @ Indiana 3:30 BTN Craig Coshun, Anthony Herron, Mark Campbell
Arizona State @ UCLA 4 PM FSN Barry Tompkins, Petros Papadakis, Michael Eaves
Colorado State @ New Mexico 6 PM mtn. James Bates, Todd Christensen, Keenan McCardell
Vanderbilt @ Tennessee 7 PM ESPNU Eric Collins, Brock Huard
Tulsa @ Southern Miss 7:30 CBS CS Dave Ryan, Akbar Gbaja-Biamila
Kentucky @ Georgia 7:30 ESPN2 Mark Jones, Bob Davie
Nevada @ New Mexico State 7 PT ESPNU Terry Gannon, David Norrie
BOWL SUBDIVISION
Eastern Michigan @ Toledo 7 PM FR CSD.com  
Louisville @ South Florida Noon B.E. Net Mike Gleason, John Congemi, Quint Kessenich
Tulane @ UCF 2 PM BH Sports Drew Fellios, Mark Royals, Dave Baumann
Iowa State @ Missouri 2 PM    
UAB @ East Carolina 3:30 MASN Patrick Kinas, Billy Weaver, Brian Meador
UTEP @ Rice 3:30 CBSCS XXL  
Baylor @ Texas A&M 3:30    
Army @ North Texas 4 PM CSD.com  
Florida Atlantic @ Troy 4 PM CSS/CST Todd Kalas, Derek Rackley
Arkansas State @ Middle Tenn. St. 4:30 Gameplan Chip Walters, Kelly Holcomb
SMU @ Marshall 4:30 CBSCS XXL  
Louisiana Tech @ Fresno State 5 PM    
Louisiana-Monroe @ Louisiana-Lafayette 7 PM CSD.com  
Hawaii @ San Jose State 8 PM Gameplan Bill Leahey, Russell Yamaoha

2009 College Football Rankings – Week 11

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Remember 2004? We had five undefeated teams going into the bowls. Utah became the first BCS buster, but Auburn was the only team people were crying about not making the title game. We’re headed for five undefeated teams again, but boy, have times changed.

For one, people are talking about Boise State not being jilted for a BCS bowl this time, something that has now happened twice. What’s more, a stumble by Texas or the eventual SEC champion could, conceivably, open the door for a Cincinnati or even (whisper) TCU to enter the mix. (Or it could allow a one-loss champion to get in ahead of the other three unbeatens. But despite the fact few are yet willing to vault Texas to number 1, there would be rioting in the streets if that turned out to be the eventual SEC champion.)

A lot of teams further down in the ratings lose, creating upheaval from the 19 spot on down, starting with a booming move onto the Top 25 for the new darlings, Stanford, and continuing with a whopping three teams moving from negative B Points to the top 25, and in what may be a record this late in the year, five teams moving off the top 25, and in quite a few cases, out of positive B Points. And a behind-the-scenes alert: Utah falls so far down that they and BYU are almost neck-in-neck. Maybe within the conference, it’s not so much that BYU’s overrated as Air Force is underrated. We’ll know for sure when the two play each other this week.

How the C Ratings are tabulated: First, A Ratings are tabulated by multiplying the total score ratio, which is expressed by (points-opponents’ points)/points, by the winning percentage. Score ratio minimizes the effect of running up the score. Next, B Points for each game are tabulated by (margin of victory)/(opponent’s A rating)+/-1 for wins, and -(margin of loss)/(1-opponent’s A Rating)+/-1 for losses. The “+/-” is + for road games and – for home ones. The total number of B Points is multiplied by the A Rating to get the B Rating. Conference Ratings are tabulated by averaging the B Ratings of all teams in the conference. (Independents are counted separately, and Army and Navy are counted as one conference.) Finally, the C Rating is tabulated by taking the difference between the team’s B Rating and his conference’s rating, taking a fraction of that equal to the fraction of Division I-A the conference makes up, and taking the result off the B Rating. The three ratings go A, B, C across. Click here to see the complete ratings.

1 Texas (10-0)
Big 12 Leader		 .826 59.715 52.630 Texas hasn’t needed any help from officials any step of the way. SEC parity, or Texas dominance?
2 TCU (10-0)
Non-BCS Leader		 .809 50.209 44.173 Utah is the only team in the Mountain West deserving of a Top 25 ranking, and TCU blew them out. Is that a sign the Mountain West really is WAC-level this year, or a sign the Horned Frogs really are national title material?
3 Florida (10-0)
SEC Leader
Princeton-Yale Title		 .812 43.837 39.183 People are starting to split hairs over which team in the SEC is better. But in the SEC Title Game (and in Florida’s upcoming blowout of Florida International) we’re all losers.
4 Alabama (10-0) .804 38.871 34.713 Alabama gets its act together in a blowout of an admittedly weak Mississippi State team the Tide held to a field goal. But expect them to dip again for playing an FCS school.
5 Boise State (10-0) .795 37.116 31.464 So far as I can tell, the main reason Boise could still go to a BCS bowl is because of an odd lack of parity: few non-conference champions are impressive. But Nevada is still unbeaten in conference.
6 Cincinnati (10-0)
Big East Leader		 .755 31.893 29.531 CBS’s Gregg Doyel says the team long part of the C Ratings’ Big 4 aren’t title game worthy. They certainly didn’t look it beating WVU by only three at home with SEC-like help. Could they fall to Pitt on the road in two weeks?
7 Ohio State (9-2)
Big Ten Leader		 .607 19.170 16.199 It was by three in overtime, but it was still the effective Big Ten title game. But people still don’t trust the Big Ten, or a team that lost to now-struggling USC and mediocre-to-bad Purdue.
8 Pittsburgh (9-1) .649 17.446 16.046 Basically matched what Ohio State did, against a worse team (sorry, Golden Domers). Now look for them to potentially slip for the bye.
9 Oregon (8-2)
Pac-10 Leader		 .542 18.226 14.824 Rebounded against Arizona State and now head into an effective Pac-10 title game against Arizona, despite the Civil War potentially looming as a second.
10 Virginia Tech (7-3)
ACC Leader		 .473 17.291 14.206 V-Tech’s ACC title hopes are officially dashed, and Duke wasn’t quite good enough for G-Tech to leapfrog the Hokies despite a blowout. Where are they or Pitt for BCS at-large bowl consideration?
11 Penn State (9-2) .604 13.441 10.995 Hmm. Penn State outranks Iowa in the polls as well, and in the BCS they’re behind only because the BCS computers still don’t count MoV. It looks like, despite losing to Iowa, PSU may be getting an upgrade to LSU and the Cap One Bowl.
12 Oklahoma (6-4) .406 12.609 10.235 Despite not having Bradford, every loss has been by a score to a team ranked in at least one poll, and they’ve looked dominant in the other games (see: A&M). Explain to me why they aren’t among the ranked?
13 Iowa (9-2) .509 12.390 10.040 The Hawkeyes have one game left and then I’m not sure if anyone knows for sure what bowl they’re going to. They’re going to do a lot of Big Ten and SEC game watching, that’s for sure.
14 Georgia Tech (10-1) .594 12.530 9.921 G-Tech may have blown out Duke by so much it limited their own benefit by hurting Duke’s A Rating. But while they didn’t leapfrog V-Tech they did leapfrog Clemson, and that’s their likely ACC Title Game opponent.
15 Clemson (7-3) .474 11.680 9.156 Don’t pop the corks just yet. Beating Virginia would give Clemson the Atlantic, but a loss would allow BC to control their own destiny. Fortunately, North Carolina has proved a trap game for everyone in the ACC.
16 LSU (8-2) .524 8.915 7.754 Considering the reaction, turns out LSU may need to scout Penn State instead – perhaps this week against Michigan State.
17 Nebraska (7-3) .488 8.415 6.460 Well, as it happens, despite the chaos that has enveloped the Big 12 North this year, it’s now very simple: the Kansas State game is an effective North title game, for the right to try to be a trap game for Texas.
18 Oklahoma State (8-2) .539 7.056 5.237 A one-score win over Texas Tech is probably to be expected. But I can’t help but wonder if the Cowboys will drop next week for letting a worse Colorado team get even closer…
19 Stanford (7-3)
2006 Boise State Title		 .450 6.562 4.132 Amazing what two big wins can do for you, and Toby Gerhart’s Heisman candidacy. Losses to Oregon State and Arizona (the former meaning Stanford’s rooting for the latter) and lowly Wake Forest are all water under the bridge now.
20 Rutgers (7-2)* .544 3.797 3.308 Rutgers’ only losses were to the Big East’s Big Two, but an incredibly weak non-conference slate (seriously, Army’s the best among them?) and narrow win over UConn held them back – until they shut out a USF team ranked in the polls.
21 Arkansas (6-4)* .360 3.817 3.165 Blew out a terrific-by-Sun-Belt-standards Troy team, and despite early blowout losses they still have their beef-with-the-refs-in-a-Florida game and Ws over Auburn and the other USC. But can they pass Ole Miss and Auburn for the Cotton Bowl?
22 Mississippi (7-3)* .455 2.962 2.395 Maybe not, if it’s the Rebels that take the spot, thanks to a blowout win over the beleaguered but Top 25 Vols – and a big-time game against the third-best team in the SEC coming up next.
23 Texas Tech (6-4) .384 3.474 2.013 The Red Raiders lose to Oklahoma State on the road. Now they get Oklahoma at home. Trap game, or do they get the same Oklahoma feeling twice in a row?
24 Notre Dame (6-4) .344 1.757 1.757 They kept it within five, but both of their remaining games are against teams in positive B Points. And they might both be must-wins for Weis to keep his job.
25 Oregon State (7-3) .429 3.884 1.677 Blowout win over admittedly-underperforming Washington just what the doctor ordered to put the Beavers on the Top 25. Every loss was to a good team (USC doesn’t look the part anymore) but tight wins over UNLV and Stanford had held them back.

29 teams total with positive C Rating (none with negative B Rating)

Off Top 25: #27 Miami (FL) (was #20), Arizona (was ), Utah (was #25), #40 Tennessee (was #23), #46 USC (was #21)

Watch List: #26 Air Force, #27 Miami (FL), Wisconsin, Connecticut

Other Positive B Ratings: Arizona, Utah, #33 BYU*, #36 Houston, #37 Temple*, #39 Northern Illinois (*=Newly Positive)

No Longer Positive: #30 West Virginia, #40 Tennessee, #46 USC, #52 Fresno State

Bottom 10: #111 Memphis, #112 Miami (OH), #113 San Jose State, #114 Tulane, #115 New Mexico State, #116 New Mexico, #117 Western Kentucky, #118 Eastern Michigan, #119 Washington State, #120 Rice

Conference Rating: SEC (-2.703), Big East (-3.546), Big 12 (-11.135), Big Ten (-13.244), ACC (-13.560), Pac-10 (-22.596), Mountain West (-30.266), WAC (-38.237), MAC (-44.758, leader #37 Temple), Conference USA (-46.569, leader #36 Houston), Sun Belt (-51.211, leader #58 Troy)

Best game of week: Oklahoma @ Texas Tech, 9:30am PT, FSN

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Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 10

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NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind):

  • Begins Sunday of Week 11
  • In effect during Weeks 11-17
  • Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
  • The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:20 p.m. ET.
  • The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
  • The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:20 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
  • The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
  • Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
  • NFL schedules all games.
  • Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
  • Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and could not protect any games Week 17 in 2007. Unless I find out otherwise, I’m assuming that’s still the case this year, especially with no tentative game listed Week 17. When looking up info on what the protected games might be, I found out that games were protected after Week FIVE this year, and presumably in some of the previous years. Previously all I knew was that games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling.
  • Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.
  • A rule that may have come to light late last year but that, given its restrictiveness and lateness in coming to light, I’m having trouble accepting, is that the balance of primetime games taken from FOX and CBS can’t go beyond 22-20 one way or the other. The current tally is FOX 15, CBS 20; with tentative games, the tally is FOX 19, CBS 22. With this rule in place, Weeks 11 and 14-16 cannot be flexed away from NFC road games without making up for it in Weeks 12, 13, and 17, and even with that at least one more game would have to be flexed to an NFC road game in said weeks.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 22):

  • Selected game: Philadelphia @ Chicago.

Week 12 (November 29):

  • Selected game: Pittsburgh @ Baltimore.

Week 13 (December 6):

  • Tentative game: New England @ Miami
  • Prospects: 6-3 v. 4-5. An improvement over last week, but still lopsided.
  • Protected games: Cowboys-Giants (FOX) and Titans-Colts (CBS). (What does it say that the Titans are on a winning streak after their terrible start and Titans-Colts STILL looks like a terrible flex pick out of context?)
  • Other possible games: Eagles-Falcons, Vikings-Cardinals, and Jags-Texans.
  • Analysis: Eagles-Falcons and Jags-Texans are both 5-4 v. 5-4; Vikings-Cardinals is 8-1 v. 6-3. Last week I thought there might be some question as to which game NBC might pick, but the only chance either game has to pass Vikings-Cardinals is for the Cardinals to lose and the two teams in the other matchup to win – and possibly the Vikings as well, to make Vikings-Cardinals questionably lopsided, though even then the game is likely to have playoff implications, and it’s still Brett Favre. Still, 5-4 currently leads the NFC Wild Card (although it effectively splits the difference in the tentative game), and NBC still has other and possibly better chances to worship at the Favre altar, so I’m not quite ready to pick it yet; I’ll try to call it sometime on Monday.

Week 14 (December 13):

  • Tentative game: Philadelphia @ NY Giants
  • Prospects: It’s an NFC East game (always = ratings), and while it doesn’t currently have the NFC East lead on the line it’s still a battle of playoff contenders. Still a pretty good shot to keep its spot – the Giants’ troubles might help it in the long run if the game would have become lopsided as opposed to 5-4 v. 5-4. However, there are strong flex contenders…
  • Protected games: Chargers-Cowboys (CBS) and Packers-Bears (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Bengals-Vikings, Broncos-Colts, and Saints-Falcons all remain very strong contenders. Broncos-Colts is still the most compelling candidate to flex away from Eagles-Giants (even if the Broncos are no longer unbeaten), given the NFL’s reticence to pull the flex – but with the Favre factor, Bengals-Vikings at 7-2 v. 8-1 looks mighty compelling, and Saints-Falcons not only has a non-undefeated team almost as good as the Broncos, it might be the Saints’ best chance for a loss all year. I’m not likely to call this one during the week either.

Week 15 (December 20):

  • Tentative game: Minnesota @ Carolina
  • Prospects: Still lopsided, with the Vikings 8-1 and the Panthers 4-5. There are better chances to worship at the Favre altar the previous two weeks, against teams that are actually winning, not to mention the Giants Week 17 if that game has playoff implications.
  • Protected games: Packers-Steelers (Fox) and Bengals-Chargers (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Two good protected game choices mean that NBC can only select from games involving other teams with losing records. At least in the case of Falcons-Jets, 49ers-Eagles, and Bears-Ravens, one team is 4-5 and the other is above .500 (albeit 5-4 in all three cases). Given how good and otherwise appealing the Vikings are, and the NFL’s reticence to pull the flex, Vikings-Cardinals may keep its spot yet; the main point against it is lopsidedness, especially since a 4-5 team is far from out of the playoff picture, especially in the NFC.

Week 16 (December 27)

  • Tentative game: Dallas @ Washington
  • Prospects: Lopsided at 6-3 v. 3-6, but it is the NFL’s biggest rivalry so never count out its chances of keeping the spot.
  • Protected games: Ravens-Steelers (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Broncos-Eagles and Jags-Patriots, both 6-3 v. 5-4. (I eliminate Jets-Colts because the Jets fell below .500, but the Colts are still unbeaten.) The Eagles and Jags, by not being laughingstocks like Washington but instead being alive for playoff spots, make appealing cases for the flex, but are they enough to sweep the NFL off its feet?

Week 17 (January 3 Playoff Positioning Watch):

  • AFC East: Patriots lead, Dolphins and Jets two back, Bills a game behind that. New England plays Houston, the Jets play Cincinnati, Miami plays Pittsburgh and the Bills play the Colts.
  • AFC North: Bengals lead, Steelers a game back, Ravens waiting in the wings. The Bengals play the Jets, while the Steelers play the Dolphins and Baltimore plays Oakland. Browns mathematically in it.
  • AFC South: Colts running away with it; Jags and Texans a full four back. The Colts play Buffalo while the Texans play New England and the Jags play the Browns.
  • AFC West: Broncos and Chargers tied, Chiefs and Raiders four back. The Broncos play the Chiefs while the Chargers play the Redskins and Oakland plays Baltimore.
  • AFC Wild Card: If the season ended today, the loser of the AFC West would get the nod along with the Steelers, with the Jags, Texans, and Ravens a game back. The Dolphins and Jets are waiting in the wings. Bengals-Jets and Texans-Patriots the main AFC contenders, though Dolphins-Steelers is appealing as well.
  • NFC East: Cowboys lead, Eagles and Giants a game back, Redskins mathematically in it. Cowboys and Eagles play each other, while the Giants play the Vikings.
  • NFC North: Vikings lead by 3 games over Packers with the Bears a game behind that. The Vikings play the Giants while the Packers play the Cardinals and the Bears play the Lions (who have already been eliminated from the North by being swept by the Vikings).
  • NFC South: Saints lead by 4 over Falcons, with the Panthers a game behind that. The Saints and Panthers play each other, as do the Falcons and Bucs (who have also been eliminated from this race, this time outright).
  • NFC West: Cardinals lead by 2 over 49ers with the Seahawks a game behind that. Arizona plays Green Bay, while the Niners play the Rams and the Seahawks play the Titans.
  • NFC Wild Card: Any two of the Eagles, Giants, Packers and Falcons would get the nod if the season ended today, with the Bears, Panthers, and Niners a game back, giving Panthers-Saints dark-horse appeal. The Redskins, who play the Chargers, and Seahawks wait in the wings, meaning if you’re mathematically in any division race, unless you’re the Rams you have a surprisingly realistic shot at the Wild Card. The NFC definitely has the better games with Cowboys-Eagles, Giants-Vikings, and possibly Packers-Cardinals, but the NFL showed last year they’re more concerned with making sure the game has playoff implications no matter what happens when we get to primetime, so we’ll see how the rest of the season plays out. And how shocking would it be to see Redskins-Chargers in that spot?

2009 College Football Rankings – Week 10

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An intriguing subplot is developing in college football this year, and it’s not SEC Referee-Gate. It’s not even the rise of Cincinnati, which this week looks to be less a result of the Bearcats being underrated as the Crimson Tide being overrated. No, it’s the very real possibility of a non-BCS school in TCU making the title game, in fourth place in the BCS standings and third in the C Ratings.

In a year of one of the largest gaps between the BCS and non-BCS conferences I’ve yet seen, TCU is in such a position that if Texas or the eventual SEC champion loses, you would normally expect them to move into the top two and the unprecedented heights of the BCS Championship Game. In the polls, that’s attributable to the Mountain West’s reputation, earned in years past, but this year BYU in particular is way overrated. It’s also attributable to the fact that the closest games they’ve played, Clemson and Air Force, were both road games. In the C Ratings, you can attribute their success to their games against Virginia and Clemson, both good ACC teams (the latter is finally ranked in the AP and Harris polls this week). Even in the BCS computers the Horned Frogs are just ahead of Texas for third, and the BCS computers don’t include margin of victory, and TCU hasn’t beaten an Oregon like Boise State.

Is TCU really that great? Or are they the beneficiary of a weak year across college football? There’s a growing consensus that Florida and Alabama are being propped up by the SEC officials. Texas has been doing their work quietly, and have been met with skepticism, especially after a lackluster effort against Colorado. Last year at this time TCU’s C Rating of 35.706 would be second behind Florida, but it wouldn’t be a five-point drop to the next team back; four teams had better C Ratings than what Cincinnati has now, and Boise State’s 22.318 rating would be ninth last year.

Whatever happens, it could be an exciting end to the season. I suspect you may start seeing a growing movement to drop Florida and especially Alabama from their current perches, and to exclude them from the BCS Championship Game even if they go undefeated (and I’m a little surprised it hasn’t started already; even in the usually more trustworthy AP poll, Texas has one fewer first-place vote than Alabama). And if the Big Three start losing and TCU and Cincinnati keep winning, it’ll be exciting to watch. Either a team from a conference many see as weak will go into the national championship game, causing riots among the big boys, or a one-loss team will sneak into the national championship game, causing the Mountain West to moan “What do we have to do?!?” and the Big East to start thinking about what the BCS really means to them.

How the C Ratings are tabulated: First, A Ratings are tabulated by multiplying the total score ratio, which is expressed by (points-opponents’ points)/points, by the winning percentage. Score ratio minimizes the effect of running up the score. Next, B Points for each game are tabulated by (margin of victory)/(opponent’s A rating)+/-1 for wins, and -(margin of loss)/(1-opponent’s A Rating)+/-1 for losses. The “+/-” is + for road games and – for home ones. The total number of B Points is multiplied by the A Rating to get the B Rating. Conference Ratings are tabulated by averaging the B Ratings of all teams in the conference. (Independents are counted separately, and Army and Navy are counted as one conference.) Finally, the C Rating is tabulated by taking the difference between the team’s B Rating and his conference’s rating, taking a fraction of that equal to the fraction of Division I-A the conference makes up, and taking the result off the B Rating. The three ratings go A, B, C across. Click here to see the complete ratings.

1 Texas (9-0)
Big 12 Leader		 .823 51.968 46.017 Only three more games to go, and Texas A&M is the only one with more than one conference win. But the Big 12 Title Game might turn out to be a trap game…
2 Florida (9-0)
SEC Leader
Princeton-Yale Title		 .823 43.618 39.055 The SEC Title Game matchup is already set. But that doesn’t make games like the Spurrier Bowl any less important. Any more bailouts and it could hurt them in the polls.
3 TCU (9-0)
Non-BCS Leader		 .816 40.925 35.706 TCU could make it into the National Championship Game without the other non-BCS teams having a clue how they did it. But with the possible exception of Clemson, no team all year will be as tough as Utah, even at home.
4 Cincinnati (9-0)
Big East Leader		 .776 32.418 30.107 Cincinnati’s rating had been inflated by an all-blowout slate, but the UConn win may have earned them respect – even ESPN’s CFB Live compared their credentials favorably to Texas. If only people didn’t start calling the Big East a mid-major…
5 Alabama (9-0) .788 30.598 27.337 You know you’re in trouble when you beat the third-best SEC team by more than a score and your C Rating goes down. If Alabama sneaks into the SEC Championship and gets bull-rushed into the national title game there will be revolt.
6 Boise State (9-0) .794 26.882 22.318 Beating a 3-6 squad by only ten points is one reason Boise State isn’t benefitting from Oregon’s success. There’s also the little niggling matter of Oregon losing a game.
7 Ohio State (8-2)
Big Ten Leader		 .613 20.637 17.667 Hey, look! Ohio State actually won a big game! What Purdue loss? If they can beat Iowa, might they actually have a shot at winning the Rose Bowl with USC out of the way?
8 Pittsburgh (8-1) .653 18.594 17.204 Here’s a thought: If Cincinnati goes undefeated thru the Pittsburgh game and loses there, and Texas or the SEC champion lose, do Big East backers start wondering about Pitt’s case for the national title game?
9 Oregon (7-2)
Pac-10 Leader		 .520 16.367 13.542 If only Washingtonians had a chance to see at least a re-air of the Stanford game without Fox College Sports! Oregon still has the Pac-10 lead, but it’ll be in serious jeopardy against Arizona in two weeks.
10 Virginia Tech (6-3)
ACC Leader		 .436 15.489 12.905 Georgia Tech keeps being overrated, and Virginia Tech keeps being underrated. And in an odd way, V-Tech fans are now Duke fans: Duke winning out is the only way the Hokies even have an outside shot at the ACC Title Game.
11 Iowa (9-1) .571 13.138 10.855 The Hawkeyes lose, but Penn State’s loss ends up keeping them in second in the Big Ten. If computers factored in MoV the Buckeyes would have the BCS lead too. Now for an effective Big Ten title game.
12 Penn State (8-2) .595 13.074 10.797 Despite losing to a better team, the Nittany Lions fall behind Iowa because the Hawkeyes kept it closer. Indiana and Michigan State now mean little more than keeping them warmed up for the Outback Bowl.
13 LSU (7-2) .509 9.770 8.593 LSU will recover from the Alabama game by beating Louisiana Tech while scouting their likely Capitol One Bowl opponent, the loser of the Ohio State-Iowa game.
14 Clemson (6-3) .447 8.439 6.560 While the Coastal division is led by a team that’s grossly overrated, Clemson is cruising to the Atlantic title – assuming they can win out. That sort of clarity is remarkably rare in the ACC these days.
15 Oklahoma (5-4) .360 7.818 6.282 Oklahoma isn’t even bowl eligible yet, but the seven-point loss to Nebraska was the worst of the year, and the one game they lost to a team in negative B Points (BYU) was by a point on a neutral site. The Cotton Bowl is doubtful, though.
16 Georgia Tech (9-1) .566 6.874 5.152 Anyone who propelled G-Tech even higher in the polls didn’t notice that they won by three, at home, to a team that needs to win out to become bowl eligible. I smell a road trip to Duke being a trap game that robs them of the Coastal.
17 Texas Tech (6-3) .448 6.487 5.083 No change in ranking despite the week off. But Oklahoma State, which is becoming a bit of a rivalry, will definitely be a litmus test game. Not as much as the Sooners, though, even without Sam Bradford.
18 Nebraska (6-3) .462 6.220 4.844 Beat Oklahoma, but by a score at home, and still not ranked in the polls, perhaps because Oklahoma wasn’t ranked either. But they can lose to Kansas and still control their own Big 12 North destiny – but still, win if you want the respect you deserve.
19 Oklahoma State (7-2) .526 5.683 4.360 Beating down Iowa State returns the Cowboys to the Top 25, and the rest of the schedule is very interesting. They play a team just two spots better this week, then after Colorado comes Bedlam against a team four spots better.
20 Miami (FL) (7-2) .474 3.664 2.263 Big beatdown over Virginia gives the Canes breathing room, and the Hurricanes have a clearer path to the Coastal than Virginia Tech does. The Hokies know UNC is a trap game and Duke still awaits a week later in a critical game.
21 USC (7-2) .507 3.915 2.128 A single Oregon loss to Stanford won’t give USC the Pac-10, but beating the Cardinal themselves would send a big statement, and get rid of one potential Pac-10 title suitor. But the 2007 team knows how dangerous it is to play Stanford in the Coliseum…
22 Notre Dame (6-3) .395 2.014 2.014 In defense of Charlie Weis, two years ago Notre Dame was the laughingstock of college football, last year they were 6-6, this year they need one more win to top that mark. But all three chances won’t be easy.
23 Tennessee (5-4) .336 2.226 1.803 Had I written this earlier in the week I wouldn’t have had the opportunity to remark on some of Lane Kiffin’s players being charged for armed robbery. Tennessee is a win away from bowl eligibility and two from the Outback Bowl; will they be allowed to go?
24 Arizona (6-2) .485 3.107 1.387 Oregon’s loss to Stanford doesn’t really change much of anything, at least right now; the game between the Ducks and Wildcats is still an effective Pac-10 title game with no more losses by either side, and USC still looms on Arizona’s schedule.
25 Utah (8-1) .609 3.600 1.180 Beat New Mexico handily but still get penalized for the effective bye week. And if any one team in the Mountain West is the opposite of New Mexico, it’s TCU. (Why is this game on CBS College Sports?)

29 teams total with positive C Rating (none with negative B Rating)

Off Top 25: West Virginia (was )

2006 Boise State Title: #36 Stanford (6-3), .417, .040, -1.425

Watch List: #26 Oregon State*, #27 Fresno State, West Virginia, Connecticut

Other Positive B Ratings: Air Force, #33 Wisconsin*, #35 Houston, #36 Stanford*, #40 Northern Illinois (*=Newly Positive)

No Longer Positive: #43 Temple

Bottom 10: #111 Miami (OH), #112 Memphis, #113 San Jose State, #114 New Mexico State, #115 Tulane, #116 New Mexico, #117 Washington State, #118 Eastern Michigan, #119 Western Kentucky, #120 Rice

Best game of week: Iowa @ Ohio State, 12:30pm PT, ABC/ESPN2

All logos taken from Sportslogos.net, and are the trademarks of their respective schools, used without permission under fair-use clause of United States copyright law. Some logos may be out of date. Use of logos for commercial purposes without consent of the respective schools is prohibited.

College Football Schedule – Week 11

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This time I’ve tried to arrange the schedule using Excel. Hopefully it won’t be completely screwed up; we’re going retro with this one, as there will be no background coloring. Also hopefully we’ll be back to Word next week, though the schedule may be later than it has been. Rankings should be obvious after this, and all times Eastern.

TOP 25 GAMES
Texas @ Baylor Noon FSN Bill Land, Dave Lapham, Emily Jones
Florida* @ South Carolina 3:30 CBS Verne Lundquist, Gary Danielson, Tracy Wolfson
#25 Utah @ TCU 7:30 CBS CS Tom Hart, Aaron Taylor
West Virginia @ Cincinnati 8 PM FR ESPN2 Joe Tessitore, Rod Gilmore, Quint Kessenich
Alabama @ Mississippi State 7 PM ESPN Brad Nessler, Todd Blackledge, Erin Andrews
Idaho @ Boise State 3:30 ESPNU Todd Harris, Charles Arbuckle
Iowa @ Ohio State 3:30 ABC/ESPN2
HD ABC only		 Sean McDonough, Matt Millen, Holly Rowe
#22 Notre Dame @ Pittsburgh 8 PM ABC Brent Musberger, Kirk Herbstreit, Lisa Salters
Arizona State @ Oregon 7 PT ESPN Terry Gannon, David Norrie
Virginia Tech @ Maryland 1 PM ESPN360 Dave Weekley, Danny Kanell
Indiana @ #12 Penn State Noon BTN Craig Coshun, Glen Mason, Anthony Herron
Louisiana Tech @ LSU 7 PM ESPNU Eric Collins, Brock Huard
#14 Clemson @ NC State Noon Raycom Tim Brant, Rick Walker, Mike Hogewood
Texas A&M @ #15 Oklahoma 7 PM FSN Joel Meyers, Gary Reasons, Jim Knox
#16 Georgia Tech @ Duke Noon ESPN2 Pam Ward, Ray Bentley
#17 Texas Tech @ #19 Oklahoma State 8 PM ABC Mike Patrick, Craig James, Heather Cox
#18 Nebraska @ Kansas 3:30 ABC Ron Franklin, Ed Cunningham
#20 Miami (FL) @ North Carolina 3:30 ABC/ESPN2 Bob Wischusen, Brian Griese
Stanford* @ #21 USC 3:30 FSN Barry Tompkins, Petros Papadakis, Michael Eaves
#23 Tennessee @ Mississippi Noon CBS Craig Bolerjack, Steve Beuerlein
Arizona @ California 7 PM VS. Ted Robinson, Glenn Parker, Lewis Johnson
WATCHLIST AND OTHER POSITIVE B POINT GAMES
Washington @ Oregon State 3:30 FSN NW Tom Glasgow, Steve Preece,
Rashad Floyd, Angie Mentink
Fresno State @ Nevada 4 PM CSN CA Ralph Wood, Randy Rosenbloom, Guy Haberman
UNLV @ Air Force 6 PM mtn. James Bates, Todd Christensen, Natalie Vickers
Michigan @ Wisconsin Noon BTN Wayne Larrivee, Chris Martin, Charissa Thompson
Houston @ Central Florida Noon CBS CS Matt McConnell, Akbar Gbaja-Biamila
Ball State 20-26 Northern Illinois 6 PM TH ESPNU Dan McLaughlin, Jon Berger
THIS WEEK’S OTHER HD GAMES
Ohio 27-24 Buffalo 7 PM TU ESPN2
Toledo 28-56 Central Michigan 8 PM WE ESPN2 Eric Collins, Ray Bentley, Robert Smith
South Florida 0-31 Rutgers 7:30 TH ESPN Chris Fowler, Craig James,
Jesse Palmer, Erin Andrews
Temple @ Akron 8:30 FR ESPNU Justin Kutcher, Tom Luginbill
Michigan State @ Purdue Noon ESPN Dave Pasch, Bob Griese, Chris Spielman
Florida State @ Wake Forest Noon ESPNU Clay Matvick, David Diaz-Infante
South Dakota State @ Minnesota Noon BTN Matt Rosen, Ron Johnson
Kentucky @ Vanderbilt Noon SEC Net Dave Neal, Andre Ware, Cara Capuano
Missouri @ Kansas State 12:30 VS. Ron Thulin, Kelly Stouffer, Lindsay Soto
BYU @ New Mexico 2 PM mtn. Ari Wolfe, Blaine Fowler, Keenan McCardell
Delaware @ Navy 3:30 CBS CS Tom McCarthy, Randy Cross
Auburn @ Georgia 7 PM ESPN2 Mark Jones, Bob Davie
Troy @ Arkansas 7:30 CSS/CST Doug Bell, Chris Doering
Wyoming @ San Diego State 7 PT mtn. Bill Doleman, Robert Griffith, Molly Sullivan
New Mexico State @ Hawaii 7 PT Gameplan Bill Leahey, Russell Yamoaha
East Carolina @ Tulsa 8 PM SU ESPN Dave Lamont, JC Pearson
BIG EAST
Louisville @ Syracuse Noon B.E. Net Mike Gleason, John Congemi, Quint Kessenich
BIG 12
Colorado @ Iowa State 2 PM
ACC
Boston College @ Virginia 3:30 ESPN360 Ryan Rose, John Gregory
BIG TEN
Northwestern @ Illinois Noon ESPN Classic Mike Morgan, Jon Berger
PAC-10
UCLA @ Washington State 5 PM FCS Steve Physioc, Yogi Roth, Samantha Steele
WAC
San Jose State @ Utah State 3 PM KUCW
MAC
Bowling Green 35-14 Miami (OH) 6 PM TH CSD.com
Western Michigan @ Eastern Michigan 1 PM CSD.com
CONFERENCE USA
UAB @ Memphis 1 PM CSS Matt Stewart, Chuck Oliver, Allison Williams
UTEP @ SMU 3 PM CBSCS XXL CJ Martin, Bruce Wiseman
Tulane @ Rice 3:30 CBSCS XXL
Southern Miss @ Marshall 4:30 CBSCS XXL
SUN BELT
Western Kentucky @ Louisiana-Monroe 4 PM CSD.com
Louisiana-Lafayette @ Middle Tenn. St. 4 PM CSS/CST Todd Kalas, Derek Rackley
Arkansas State @ Florida Atlantic 4 PM
North Texas @ Florida International 7 PM CSD.com
BOWL SUBDIVISION
VMI @ Army Noon CBSCS XXL

Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 9

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NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind):

  • Begins Sunday of Week 11
  • In effect during Weeks 11-17
  • Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
  • The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:20 p.m. ET.
  • The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
  • The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:20 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
  • The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
  • Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
  • NFL schedules all games.
  • Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
  • Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and could not protect any games Week 17 in 2007. Unless I find out otherwise, I’m assuming that’s still the case this year, especially with no tentative game listed Week 17. When looking up info on what the protected games might be, I found out that games were protected after Week FIVE this year, and presumably in some of the previous years. Previously all I knew was that games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling.
  • Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.
  • A rule that may have come to light late last year but that, given its restrictiveness and lateness in coming to light, I’m having trouble accepting, is that the balance of primetime games taken from FOX and CBS can’t go beyond 22-20 one way or the other. The current tally is FOX 15, CBS 20; with tentative games, the tally is FOX 19, CBS 22. With this rule in place, Weeks 11 and 14-16 cannot be flexed away from NFC road games without making up for it in Weeks 12, 13, and 17, and even with that at least one more game would have to be flexed to an NFC road game in said weeks.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 22):

  • Selected game: Philadelphia @ Chicago.

Week 12 (November 29):

  • Tentative game: Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
  • Prospects: 6-2 v. 4-4, so getting lopsided, but the Steelers are defending champs and it’s a rivalry game – and the pickings are very slim otherwise. Very good chance of keeping its spot.
  • Protected games: Bears-Vikings (FOX).
  • Other possible games: It’s Thanksgiving Weekend, so there are some slim pickings for games. Colts-Texans, at 8-0 v. 5-4, is the only game involving two teams over .500.
  • Analysis: Both games are lopsided to a similar extent. Colts-Texans has the undefeated factor, but it also has the same issue going against it that the Colts had last week, and the Texans aren’t a team that can draw the audience. On the up side, it would be taking a game from CBS either way, but if you asked CBS whether they liked Steelers-Ravens, even with the Ravens at 4-5, or Colts-Texans, methinks they would rather have Steelers-Ravens, and methinks NBC and the NFL will likely think the same way.
  • Final prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens (no change).

Week 13 (December 6):

  • Tentative game: New England @ Miami
  • Prospects: 6-2 v. 3-5. This game is officially lopsided.
  • Protected games: Cowboys-Giants (FOX) and Titans-Colts (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Eagles-Falcons and Vikings-Cardinals each pit a 3-loss team against a team with the same number of losses or fewer. Eagles-Falcons involves two teams with the same record but Vikings-Cardinals is better overall and has the Favre factor.

Week 14 (December 13):

  • Tentative game: Philadelphia @ NY Giants
  • Prospects: It’s an NFC East game (always = ratings), and while it doesn’t currently have the NFC East lead on the line it’s still a battle of playoff contenders. Still a pretty good shot to keep its spot – the Giants’ troubles might help it in the long run if the game would have become lopsided as opposed to 5-3 v. 5-4. However, there are strong flex contenders…
  • Protected games: Chargers-Cowboys (CBS) and Packers-Bears (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Bengals-Vikings, Broncos-Colts, and Saints-Falcons remain strong contenders. Broncos-Colts is still the most compelling candidate to flex away from Eagles-Giants (even if the Broncos are no longer unbeaten), given the NFL’s reticence to pull the flex – but with the Favre factor, Bengals-Vikings at 6-2 v. 7-1 looks mighty compelling, and Saints-Falcons not only has a non-undefeated team almost as good as the Broncos, it might be the Saints’ best chance for a loss all year.

Week 15 (December 20):

  • Tentative game: Minnesota @ Carolina
  • Prospects: Keeps getting lopsided, with the Vikings 7-1 and the Panthers 3-5. There are better chances to worship at the Favre altar the previous two weeks, against teams that are actually winning, not to mention the Giants Week 17 if that game has playoff implications.
  • Protected games: Packers-Steelers (Fox) and Bengals-Chargers (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Falcons-Jets is in trouble, but 49ers-Eagles is suffering as the Niners have a losing record. Bears-Ravens is in trouble again with both teams moving to .500 (and the Bears have already moved below that). Those are mediocre enough games that Vikings-Panthers might keep its spot yet.

Week 16 (December 27)

  • Tentative game: Dallas @ Washington
  • Prospects: Lopsided at 6-2 v. 2-6, but it is the NFL’s biggest rivalry so never count out its chances of keeping the spot.
  • Protected games: Ravens-Steelers (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Broncos-Eagles and Jets-Colts. Right now the main attraction of those games is the now-beaten Broncos playing 5-3 Philadelphia, and the unbeaten Colts playing a Jets team that is stumbling, but despite the Eagles losing, Broncos-Eagles could be very alive with the two teams separated by one loss. Jags-Patriots is back alive as a dark horse.

Week 17 (January 3 Playoff Positioning Watch):

  • With no winless teams and every team playing eight games at most, every team is mathematically in every race.
  • AFC East: Patriots lead, Jets two back, Dolphins and Bills a game behind that. New England plays Houston, the Jets play Cincinnati, Miami plays Pittsburgh and the Bills play the Colts.
  • AFC North: Bengals and Steelers tied, Ravens two back. The Bengals play the Jets, while the Steelers play the Dolphins and Baltimore plays Oakland.
  • AFC South: Colts running away with it; Texans 3 1/2 back, Jags 4 back. The Colts play Buffalo while the Texans play New England and the Jags play the Browns.
  • AFC West: Broncos lead, Chargers a game back. The Broncos play the Chiefs while the Chargers play the Redskins.
  • AFC Wild Card: If the season ended today, the loser of the AFC North would get the nod along with the Chargers, with the Texans a half-game behind the Chargers and the Jets, Ravens, and Jags a half-game behind that. The Dolphins and Bills are waiting in the wings. Bengals-Jets and Texans-Patriots the main AFC contenders.
  • NFC East: Cowboys lead, Eagles a game back, Giants a half-game behind Eagles. Cowboys and Eagles play each other, while the Giants play the Vikings.
  • NFC North: Vikings lead by 3 games over Packers and Bears (with the Bears sinking a half-game behind the Packers tonight). The Vikings play the Giants while the Packers play the Cardinals and the Bears play the Lions.
  • NFC South: Saints lead by 3 over Falcons. The Saints and Panthers play each other, as do the Falcons and Bucs.
  • NFC West: Cardinals lead by 2 over 49ers (now 1 1/2 games back) and Seahawks. Arizona plays Green Bay, while the Niners play the Rams and the Seahawks play the Titans.
  • NFC Wild Card: Eagles and Falcons would get the nod if the season ended today, with the Giants a half-game back and the Packers and Bears a half-game behind that (Bears now a full game behind Giants). The Panthers, Niners (just moving a half-game closer), and Seahawks wait in the wings, indicating Panthers-Saints may have dark horse appeal. The NFC definitely has the better games with Cowboys-Eagles, Giants-Vikings, and possibly Packers-Cardinals, but the NFL showed last year they’re more concerned with making sure the game has playoff implications no matter what happens when we get to primetime, so we’ll see how the rest of the season plays out.

2009 College Football Rankings – Week 9

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Up to this point, the big story in the C Ratings was that, unusually, no one team was pulling away. The Big Four of Texas, Florida, Alabama, and disrespected Cincinnati kept trading spots. That’s still the case, but now one team has fallen far enough behind the others to fall behind a fifth team, and it’s a doozy – at least considering how much not only the C Ratings, but the whole country, loved them just two weeks – and only one game – ago.

That team is Alabama, and they are solely the victims of a lackluster effort against Tennessee. In some ways it’s unfair for them to drop down, as they had a bye last week – but that bye only dropped them back down to the same number of games the others had. Alabama is now a full eight points behind Cincinnati in the C Rating, a Cincinnati team that is two points behind Florida. If Texas can maintain their current tear, maybe they can be the team that starts pulling away; after leading Florida by only two last week, the satisfying performance the Longhorns had against a good Oklahoma State team gives them a five-point edge this week.

Perhaps, with a good enough performance against an LSU team that can steal the SEC West, Alabama can come roaring back into the Top 4. But perhaps, with the way the Tide have played recently, they’ve set themselves up to fall, and fall hard.

Meanwhile, the team that leapfrogged Alabama may be just as much a story as Alabama’s woes: TCU. The unbeaten Horned Frogs are playing in a year of one of the biggest gaps between the BCS and non-BCS schools since I’ve kept conference ratings and haven’t played Utah, the only other Mountain West team in the Top 25, yet. The unspoken real driving force of TCU’s success, especially in the BCS computers where their ranking is comparable to Cincinnati and Oregon while Boise State languishes further back, isn’t their performance against grossly overrated (yet still good in the A Ratings) BYU or their lackluster performance against Air Force. It’s in their nonconference ACC opposition, especially the way they manhandled Virginia. I’m not ready to pick them for the national title game, but they are a good argument for a playoff. Once again, this week’s rankings do not include games already played.

How the C Ratings are tabulated: First, A Ratings are tabulated by multiplying the total score ratio, which is expressed by (points-opponents’ points)/points, by the winning percentage. Score ratio minimizes the effect of running up the score. Next, B Points for each game are tabulated by (margin of victory)/(opponent’s A rating)+/-1 for wins, and -(margin of loss)/(1-opponent’s A Rating)+/-1 for losses. The “+/-” is + for road games and – for home ones. The total number of B Points is multiplied by the A Rating to get the B Rating. Conference Ratings are tabulated by averaging the B Ratings of all teams in the conference. (Independents are counted separately, and Army and Navy are counted as one conference.) Finally, the C Rating is tabulated by taking the difference between the team’s B Rating and his conference’s rating, taking a fraction of that equal to the fraction of Division I-A the conference makes up, and taking the result off the B Rating. The three ratings go A, B, C across. Click here to see the complete ratings.

1 Texas (8-0)
Big 12 Leader		 .806 44.655 39.523 Oklahoma State entered last week in 16th place in the C Ratings, after a big bump up from 27th. After the beating Texas gave them, they fall right back down to 26th.
2 Florida (8-0)
SEC Leader
Princeton-Yale Title		 .808 38.870 34.728 Florida gave Georgia an ass-whoopin’ (and eye-pokin’). Too bad Georgia isn’t the Georgia everyone expects them to be at the start of every season. Otherwise the Gators might have overcome what Texas did.
3 Cincinnati (8-0)
Big East Leader		 .808 34.697 32.363 The Big East has a better record than the Big 12 in nonconference play and is 2-0 against that conference, while having a better record against good teams than the SEC. Better kick them out of the BCS.
4 TCU (8-0)
Non-BCS Leader		 .807 30.359 26.201 Sure, it was 3-6 UNLV, but 41-0 is 41-0, especially when the team ahead of you took the week off. San Diego State is little more than a tune-up for a big showdown with Utah.
5 Alabama (8-0) .801 27.164 24.193 Bama has a pretty good chance to move back into the top four against LSU… assuming they win. If they need the refs to bail them out, what will that mean for their chances going forward?
6 Oregon (7-1)
Pac-10 Leader
2006 Boise State Title		 .614 23.450 20.431 “But Boise State beat Oregon handily ON THE FIELD! Even the polls know that!” But the way the system works, the Ducks are more likely to make the title game – and keep in mind, that game was on the blue turf.
7 Boise State (8-0) .817 23.939 19.945 BSU is still a team that was good enough TO beat the presumptive Pac-10 champions fairly handily, even if it was at home. But they’ll likely be shut out of the BCS entirely by the team that beat them in the Poinsettia Bowl last year.
8 Penn State (8-1)
Big Ten Leader		 .720 21.591 18.624 “But Iowa beat Penn State in State College ON THE FIELD! Even the polls know that!” But since then, the Hawkeyes have been on the seat of their pants while PSU picked up big road wins over 5-4 teams.
9 Iowa (9-0) .720 21.591 18.624 The Cardiac Hawkeyes’ struggles finally catch up to them in the C Ratings as Penn State passes them, and the AP poll has them 8th behind my top seven. When will the coaches finally drop them behind Cincinnati?
10 Pittsburgh (7-1) .629 16.859 15.714 After the bye, back to work for Pitt against Syracuse. Then comes three straight against teams ranked in my top 25. If the Big East is better than you think, might Pitt be a good choice for a BCS bowl?
11 Ohio State (7-2) .588 12.914 10.743 USC lost, V-Tech lost, and despite Oklahoma beating a team over .500, Ohio State benefited more from a complete shut-out of New Mexico State. And unlike the team they play this week, they control their own Rose Bowl destiny.
12 Virginia Tech (5-3)
ACC Leader		 .389 11.875 9.860 V-Tech has fallen off the map by losing games they should have won – especially the North Carolina loss, which all but eliminated them from the Coastal. But both conference losses were close and the G-Tech one was on the road.
13 Oklahoma (5-3) .445 11,479 9.665 K-State is actually decent by Big 12 North standards at 5-4, and their A Rating isn’t really bad at .301, but the schedule didn’t hold up, and really, winning by only 12 at home? And now they travel to the possible cream of the North crop…
14 LSU (7-1) .610 10.418 9.121 BCS haters should root for LSU against Alabama – a one-loss team making the title game ahead of an unbeaten BCS team could be the straw that breaks the BCS, especially a one-loss team that beat weak MSU and Georgia by one score.
15 Georgia Tech (8-1) .572 7.351 5.788 G-Tech haven’t proved they deserve a Top 10 ranking yet – the close games and loss were against good teams but there are too many of them and the nonconference is nonexistent. 4-5 Wake probably won’t help.
16 Clemson (5-3) .417 6.784 5.277 What will it take for Clemson to be ranked in the polls and be recognized for beating Miami and their only questionable loss coming on the road to Maryland by three? They’re close now; will beating Florida State be enough?
17 Texas Tech (6-3) .448 6.255 4.963 After beating up on once-mighty Kansas, the Red Raiders are now in a similar position as Clemson: just on the outskirts of the polls. But the Oklahoma schools are next, and both will be tough, especially with OSU on the road.
18 Nebraska (5-3) .421 5.031 3.861 Got back on track by beating Baylor, and Texas A&M, the team that bedeviled Texas Tech, gave them a gift: they beat Iowa State and the Huskers once again control their own destiny in the Big 12 North.
19 USC (6-2) .486 5.263 3.760 USC’s nearly decade-long streak of Pac-10 titles will come to an end. Oregon would have to lose three of their last four, and one more stumble would put the Trojans behind Arizona, Stanford, Cal, AND Oregon State.
20 Notre Dame (6-2) .457 2.432 2.432 Notre Dame can smell a BCS bowl, but don’t celebrate too early. Two Big East opponents ahead will give them a test, including on the road against underrated Pitt. And losing to USC at home now looks disappointing.
21 Utah (7-1) .582 4.659 2.429 The win over Wyoming wasn’t really by that much more than the win over Air Force, which is why Notre Dame leapfrogs them. Their warmup for TCU will be horrible New Mexico at home. The Utes will win, but by how much?
22 Arizona (5-2) .433 2.936 1.627 Hold pat because the bye is offset by other teams losing. Now they get the Pac-10’s worst team at home. The Wildcats’ litmus test games still lurk ahead on the schedule.
23 Tennessee (4-4)* .293 1.328 .941 Tennessee gave the rest of the SEC the blueprint to beat Florida, came within a blown call of beating Alabama, and just won the winner-moves-in contest against South Carolina fairly handily. But 4-4 is still 4-4 with the UCLA loss.
24 West Virginia (6-2) .467 .986 .899 South Florida’s only losses are to the Big East’s big two, so why is WVU still ahead of them? USF wasn’t competitive in those losses and the game was in Tampa. Louisville is now a tuneup for the Bulls’ own date with the Big Two.
25 Miami (FL) (6-2) .436 1.703 .705 Their last game was a one-point win over mediocre Wake Forest and they faced bad teams after V-Tech loss, but other teams lost, G-Tech keeps winning, and they just need G-Tech to lose once and the Coastal is theirs.

27 teams total with positive C Rating (none with negative B Rating)

Off Top 25: #26 Oklahoma State (was #16), Mississippi (was #25)

Watch List: #26 Oklahoma State, #27 Connecticut

Other Positive B Ratings: Air Force*, Fresno State, #36 Temple, #37 Houston, #39 Northern Illinois (*=Newly Positive)

No Longer Positive: Mississippi, #33 Oregon State, #47 South Carolina, #52 Central Michigan

Bottom 10: #111 San Jose State, #112 Memphis, #113 Miami (OH), #114 Washington State, #115 New Mexico State, #116 Eastern Michigan, #117 Tulane, #118 New Mexico, #119 Western Kentucky, #120 Rice

Conference Rating: Big East (-.321), SEC (-2.549), Big 12 (-6.668), ACC (-8.281), Big 10 (-10.772), Pac-10 (-12.770), Mountain West (-25.080), WAC (-29.315), MAC (-36.678, leader #36 Temple), C-USA (-41.840, leader #37 Houston), Sun Belt (-41.850, leader #44 Troy)

Best game of week: Ohio State @ Penn State, 12:30pm PT, ABC/ESPN2

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Sunday Night Football Flex Scheduling Watch: Week 8

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NBC’s Sunday Night Football package gives it flexible scheduling. For the last seven weeks of the season, the games are determined on 12-day notice, 6-day notice for Week 17.

The first year, no game was listed in the Sunday Night slot, only a notation that one game could move there. Now, NBC lists the game it “tentatively” schedules for each night. However, the NFL is in charge of moving games to prime time.

Here are the rules from the NFL web site (note that this was written with the 2007 season in mind):

  • Begins Sunday of Week 11
  • In effect during Weeks 11-17
  • Only Sunday afternoon games are subject to being moved into the Sunday night window.
  • The game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night during flex weeks will be listed at 8:20 p.m. ET.
  • The majority of games on Sundays will be listed at 1:00 p.m. ET during flex weeks except for games played in Pacific or Mountain Time zones which will be listed at 4:05 or 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • No impact on Thursday, Saturday or Monday night games.
  • The NFL will decide (after consultation with CBS, FOX, NBC) and announce as early as possible the game being played at 8:20 p.m. ET. The announcement will come no later than 12 days prior to the game. The NFL may also announce games moving to 4:05 p.m. ET and 4:15 p.m. ET.
  • Week 17 start time changes could be decided on 6 days notice to ensure a game with playoff implications.
  • The NBC Sunday night time slot in “flex” weeks will list the game that has been tentatively scheduled for Sunday night.
  • Fans and ticket holders must be aware that NFL games in flex weeks are subject to change 12 days in advance (6 days in Week 17) and should plan accordingly.
  • NFL schedules all games.
  • Teams will be informed as soon as they are no longer under consideration or eligible for a move to Sunday night.
  • Rules NOT listed on NFL web site but pertinent to flex schedule selection: CBS and Fox each protect games in five out of six weeks, and could not protect any games Week 17 in 2007. Unless I find out otherwise, I’m assuming that’s still the case this year, especially with no tentative game listed Week 17. When looking up info on what the protected games might be, I found out that games were protected after Week FIVE this year, and presumably in some of the previous years. Previously all I knew was that games were protected after Week 4 the first year of flexible scheduling.
  • Three teams can appear a maximum of six games in primetime on NBC, ESPN or NFL Network (everyone else gets five) and no team may appear more than four times on NBC. A list of all teams’ number of appearances is in my Week 5 post.
  • A rule that may have come to light late last year but that, given its restrictiveness and lateness in coming to light, I’m having trouble accepting, is that the balance of primetime games taken from FOX and CBS can’t go beyond 22-20 one way or the other. The current tally is FOX 15, CBS 20; with tentative games, the tally is FOX 19, CBS 22. With this rule in place, Weeks 11 and 14-16 cannot be flexed away from NFC road games without making up for it in Weeks 12, 13, and 17, and even with that at least one more game would have to be flexed to an NFC road game in said weeks.

Here are the current tentatively-scheduled games and my predictions:

Week 11 (November 22):

  • Tentative game: Philadelphia @ Chicago
  • Prospects: 5-2 v. 4-3. Could still keep its spot if the competitors aren’t overwhelmingly appealing.
  • Protected games according to this: Jets-Patriots (CBS) and Redskins-Cowboys (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Giants-Falcons is no longer the main contender for a flex at 5-3 v. 4-3. Colts-Ravens is 7-0 v. 4-3, and benefits from the Ravens playing better than their record. 49ers-Packers is probably out at 3-4 v. 4-3; at best, they can have matching records to the tentative, at which point the NFL’s bias to keeping the tentative kicks in. The Chargers won and Broncos lost to make Chargers-Broncos suddenly interesting.
  • Analysis: In my opinion, Colts-Ravens is the only game that could steal the spot; Giants-Falcons probably needs Philadelphia to lose, the Giants to win, and probably a Bears loss and Falcons win to have a chance of overcoming the tentative-game bias. But Colts-Ravens, lopsided though it may seem, still involves a team with the same record as the Bears playing an undefeated squad, and benefits in several ways from Baltimore’s upset of Denver. First, of course, the Ravens got above .500. Second, the Ravens knocked off one undefeated team; can they knock off another? Third, Colts-Broncos Week 14 is no longer a potential battle of undefeateds. Still, the Colts have five primetime appearances and can’t be flexed out of any of them, meaning if Colts-Falcons is picked that’s it for the Colts the rest of the way – no Colts-Texans Week 12, no Jets-Colts Week 16, and still most damningly, no Broncos-Colts Week 14. And then there’s the fact that this would flex from an NFC road game to an AFC road game…
  • Final prediction: Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears (no change).

Week 12 (November 29):

  • Tentative game: Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
  • Prospects: 5-2 v. 4-3, the Steelers are defending champs, and it’s a rivalry game – and the pickings are very slim otherwise. Very good chance of keeping its spot.
  • Protected games: Bears-Vikings (FOX).
  • Other possible games: It’s Thanksgiving Weekend, so there are some slim pickings for games. Colts-Texans is the only game involving two teams over .500 – but it’s getting better as the Texans win. Jaguars-49ers is probably out.

Week 13 (December 6):

  • Tentative game: New England @ Miami
  • Prospects: 5-2 v. 3-4. This game is becoming lopsided.
  • Protected games: Cowboys-Giants (FOX) and Titans-Colts (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Eagles-Falcons and Vikings-Cardinals each pit a 3-loss team against a team with the same or better record as the Patriots. Eagles-Falcons is less lopsided but Vikings-Cardinals is better overall and has the Favre factor.

Week 14 (December 13):

  • Tentative game: Philadelphia @ NY Giants
  • Prospects: It’s an NFC East game (always = ratings), and the NFC East is tight enough that the top three teams, including these two, are within a half-game of each other. Still a pretty good shot to keep its spot – the Giants’ troubles might help it in the long run if the game would have become lopsided as opposed to potentially having the division lead on the line if the game was played today.
  • Protected games: Chargers-Cowboys (CBS) and Packers-Bears (FOX).
  • Other possible games: Bengals-Vikings, Broncos-Colts, and Saints-Falcons remain strong contenders. Broncos-Colts is still the only compelling candidate to flex away from Eagles-Giants (even if the Broncos are no longer unbeaten), given the NFL’s reticence to pull the flex – though with the Favre factor, Bengals-Vikings looks mighty compelling, and Saints-Falcons might be the Saints’ best chance for a loss all year.

Week 15 (December 20):

  • Tentative game: Minnesota @ Carolina
  • Prospects: Still lopsided, with the Vikings 7-1 and the Panthers 3-4. There are better chances to worship at the Favre altar the previous two weeks, against teams that are actually winning, not to mention the Giants Week 17 if that game has playoff implications.
  • Protected games: Packers-Steelers (Fox) and Bengals-Chargers (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Falcons-Jets is in trouble, but 49ers-Eagles is suffering as the Niners have a losing record. Bears-Ravens might be the new favorite as the only available game with two teams with winning records. Those are mediocre enough games that Vikings-Panthers might keep its spot yet.

Week 16 (December 27)

  • Tentative game: Dallas @ Washington
  • Prospects: Lopsided at 5-2 v. 2-5, but it is the NFL’s biggest rivalry so never count out its chances of keeping the spot.
  • Protected games: Ravens-Steelers (CBS).
  • Other possible games: Broncos-Eagles and Jets-Colts. Right now the main attraction of those games is the now-beaten Broncos playing a team with the same record as the Cowboys, and the unbeaten Colts playing a Jets team that is stumbling, so there’s nothing terribly compelling if the Colts lose but the games remain lopsided – though if the Eagles win Sunday Night Broncos-Eagles will be difficult to argue against next week.

Week 17 (January 3):

  • Playoff positioning watch begins Week 9.